Investing Thread

[MU82]

Rough day for $PENN (on a couple different levels if you're digging around on Twitter).

$DKNG probably priced to miss, but the bottom could fall out tomorrow there. If you like gambling stocks and don't own any, the time to buy is near.

I only have a smallish DKNG position. Curious about tomorrow's earnings.

[Skatastrophy]

Cloudflare with a beat and raise.

I really enjoyed Matt Prince's Halloween tweet - https://twitter.com/eastdakota/status/1455034553152589834

[TSmith34, Inc.]

Cloudflare with a beat and raise.

I really enjoyed Matt Prince's Halloween tweet - https://twitter.com/eastdakota/status/1455034553152589834

Would you buy more at this price?

I feel like I missed on SNOW, wanted it to fall under $200 and it got away from me. Cloudflare still a buy at the current price?

[TSmith34, Inc.]

Good post-close earning reports for the TSmith portfolio last night, beats from HASI, MAIN, OHI, and ERII, plus the news from PFE this morning.

IMO:

* HASI is a LT buy
* MAIN you can nibble on but it is more than fully valued and there are better choices amongst the business development corps
* OHI is a hold; their operators are not out of the woods
* ERII is a buy under $20.
* PFE, I have a full position thanks to picking up more as the pandemic hit, but...I've seen this movie before of popping on good news only to have the gains erode over the next week or so. With it moving +10% on the news, I'm probably buying some intermediate puts here.

<insert MU82's disclaimer here of not offering investment advice>

[Skatastrophy]

Would you buy more at this price?

I feel like I missed on SNOW, wanted it to fall under $200 and it got away from me. Cloudflare still a buy at the current price?

My initial cost basis is ~$17.50, but I bought more during the pullback at the end of September at $117.5.

I'm holding, but at this point it's a concentration risk for me to pile in any more cash.

If I didn't have a NET position I'd take one right now. NET was at $220 pre-market and is hanging around $203 right now. Despite the ridiculous multiple it's trading at, they are growing very quickly. They add new large customers at an astonishing rate, and their net retention rate is ~120% which is mind boggling. Really sticky platform offering infrastructure, security, and networking as a service that's so simple that even I can use it for my business despite having not really being an engineer anymore for ~10 years.

Edit: My current/next long-shot is Sofi

Sofi is a neo-bank, which is boring. What's interesting to me is that they acquired a tech company Galileo in 2019 and have invested heavily in turning Galileo from an on-premise offering into a cloud offering over the past ~year. Galileo is run at arms length, and is the back-end offering that enables Sofi, Robinhood, Chime, Verizon, etc to offer banking and card services without the operational headache. It's basically a neo-bank in a box. Galileo's revenue (on Sofi's SEC filings it shows up as 'technology services') has been doubling YoY, and the heavy investment that has been sucking the profits out of that segment are nearing an end. I'm bullish on Galileo and on Sofi's ability to funnel their lending profits into more tech offerings like this.

We'll see. I've been averaging down my basis on Sofi since $25 and I'm finally in the green. Maybe it'll turn into something. Earnings is on the 10th so we'll see if they've made progress.

[JWags85]

Edit: My current/next long-shot is Sofi

Sofi is a neo-bank, which is boring. What's interesting to me is that they acquired a tech company Galileo in 2019 and have invested heavily in turning Galileo from an on-premise offering into a cloud offering over the past ~year. Galileo is run at arms length, and is the back-end offering that enables Sofi, Robinhood, Chime, Verizon, etc to offer banking and card services without the operational headache. It's basically a neo-bank in a box. Galileo's revenue (on Sofi's SEC filings it shows up as 'technology services') has been doubling YoY, and the heavy investment that has been sucking the profits out of that segment are nearing an end. I'm bullish on Galileo and on Sofi's ability to funnel their lending profits into more tech offerings like this.

We'll see. I've been averaging down my basis on Sofi since $25 and I'm finally in the green. Maybe it'll turn into something. Earnings is on the 10th so we'll see if they've made progress.

I was pretty anti-SOFI after a pretty bad experience with them a number of years ago and because of their association with Chamath the Charlatan.  But seeing what UPST has done makes me think the appetite for this sector is pretty robust.  And SoFi is managed well and has a better comprehensive sector strategy IMO, whereas UPST seems, empirically, to just be feeding off need and some millennial desperation

[TSmith34, Inc.]

My initial cost basis is ~$17.50, but I bought more during the pullback at the end of September at $117.5.

I'm holding, but at this point it's a concentration risk for me to pile in any more cash.

If I didn't have a NET position I'd take one right now. NET was at $220 pre-market and is hanging around $203 right now. Despite the ridiculous multiple it's trading at, they are growing very quickly. They add new large customers at an astonishing rate, and their net retention rate is ~120% which is mind boggling. Really sticky platform offering infrastructure, security, and networking as a service that's so simple that even I can use it for my business despite having not really being an engineer anymore for ~10 years.

Thanks for the response, I may nibble. However, very SNOW-like, seems like it is priced for perfection and beyond.

Quite the chart pattern today.

[Skatastrophy]

Thanks for the response, I may nibble. However, very SNOW-like, seems like it is priced for perfection and beyond.

Quite the chart pattern today.

Sector rotation, whatchu gonna do

[TSmith34, Inc.]

Sector rotation, whatchu gonna do

Yup. CRWD has the same pattern.

And an 11 bagger on NET is outstanding.

[MuggsyB]

I've had a few people at work pimping Nerdwallet the past few days.  Any thoughts on their potential?

[Billy Hoyle]

Peloton is taking an absolute beating starting after hours last night. I sold at $144, it is under $60 now, down nearly 35% since the close yesterday. The end of the pandemic, the opening of gyms, and increased competition are killing them.

[Skatastrophy]

I've had a few people at work pimping Nerdwallet the past few days.  Any thoughts on their potential?

A friend and I are considering this one out of all of the announced IPOs. Here's my quick pseudo-informed take

Bull case - Nerdwallet has the hard thing nailed: SEO and brand building. They are the funnel by which most Gen Z and Millenials make their personal/biz banking, credit card, and SMB loan decisions... so they have customer acquisition solved. Additionally, Nerdwallet is a major funnel for a lot of online brokers (Lendio, Fundera, Fundbox), banks, and card companies. Nerdwallet's moat is the solid middleman position that they have. They can leverage this position for better affiliate/broker fees, or to launch their own neo-bank products directly. The consumer finance market is enormous, and Nerdwallet's solid content strategy has created a very focused inbound funnel which is very valuable.

Bear case - Consumer/SMB finance is a busy market with a lot of players. Nerdwallet can become another broker in that space? Nerdwallet pushing to become a broker/bank/lender themselves will detract from their current value prop which is "trusted 3rd party helping consumers navigate the world of consumer finance." Nerdwallet is also far too dependent on Papa Google's SEO rankings. If Google deranks them, what does their funnel look like? Just ad spend? You can't crutch a consumer funnel with a sales team so they'd be up a creek as far as their operating budget goes.

Funny point on my bear case - I was googling around and Nerdwallet acquired Fundera (SMB loan marketplace), so I guess they're going the broker route first to try to keep their credibility with the public

[MuggsyB]

A friend and I are considering this one out of all of the announced IPOs. Here's my quick pseudo-informed take

Bull case - Nerdwallet has the hard thing nailed: SEO and brand building. They are the funnel by which most Gen Z and Millenials make their personal/biz banking, credit card, and SMB loan decisions... so they have customer acquisition solved. Additionally, Nerdwallet is a major funnel for a lot of online brokers (Lendio, Fundera, Fundbox), banks, and card companies. Nerdwallet's moat is the solid middleman position that they have. They can leverage this position for better affiliate/broker fees, or to launch their own neo-bank products directly. The consumer finance market is enormous, and Nerdwallet's solid content strategy has created a very focused inbound funnel which is very valuable.

Bear case - Consumer/SMB finance is a busy market with a lot of players. Nerdwallet can become another broker in that space? Nerdwallet pushing to become a broker/bank/lender themselves will detract from their current value prop which is "trusted 3rd party helping consumers navigate the world of consumer finance." Nerdwallet is also far too dependent on Papa Google's SEO rankings. If Google deranks them, what does their funnel look like? Just ad spend? You can't crutch a consumer funnel with a sales team so they'd be up a creek as far as their operating budget goes.

Funny point on my bear case - I was googling around and Nerdwallet acquired Fundera (SMB loan marketplace), so I guess they're going the broker route first to try to keep their credibility with the public

Ty for your knowledge.  I like the concept but do you know if there have been similar financial apps and how they have generally done?  They certainly appear to be organized and fairly comprehensive.

[Skatastrophy]

Ty for your knowledge.  I like the concept but do you know if there have been similar financial apps and how they have generally done?  They certainly appear to be organized and fairly comprehensive.

I'm hoping someone else chimes in there, I'd love to hear different POVs on this one.

[Skatastrophy]

I took a small-ish position in NRDS last week at a $24 basis. If it drops below $22 I'll buy more.

This is pure speculation that they can monetize their massive funnel.

[JWags85]

I took a small-ish position in NRDS last week at a $24 basis. If it drops below $22 I'll buy more.

This is pure speculation that they can monetize their massive funnel.

I think that's a good risk.  I mean, they wouldn't be the first tech company to go public with a large valuation and tons of "potential" but a profit strategy like the Underpants Gnomes.

Step 1: Get underpants (users)
Step 2: ????
Step 3: PROFIT

Their path to monetization is easier than a lot of other freeware, but its such a crowded space.  We shall see.

Given Powell's renewal today, it should likely be a boon for a lot of the financial names.  NRDS probably rises with the tide.

[Skatastrophy]

I think that's a good risk.  I mean, they wouldn't be the first tech company to go public with a large valuation and tons of "potential" but a profit strategy like the Underpants Gnomes.

Step 1: Get underpants (users)
Step 2: ????
Step 3: PROFIT

Their path to monetization is easier than a lot of other freeware, but its such a crowded space.  We shall see.

Given Powell's renewal today, it should likely be a boon for a lot of the financial names.  NRDS probably rises with the tide.

I like Powell & I like Brainard's monetary policy. Should be smooth sailing in the markets for the foreseeable future as far as Fed policy is concerned.

[MuggsyB]

I took a small-ish position in NRDS last week at a $24 basis. If it drops below $22 I'll buy more.

This is pure speculation that they can monetize their massive funnel.

Should I buy when it drops to about $15?

[Skatastrophy]

Should I buy when it drops to about $15?

I've been averaging down, and I've bought as much as I intend to. My last buy was just below $15. Their revenue doesn't really support their valuation, so it's a bet on future growth. If I didn't already have such a large position I'd be picking up NET right now.

Big oof week in the market if you like growth companies. I just blew through my fun money buying stocks that have taken a hit, so the market will probably tank next week. Fair warning :p

[MuggsyB]

I've been averaging down, and I've bought as much as I intend to. My last buy was just below $15. Their revenue doesn't really support their valuation, so it's a bet on future growth. If I didn't already have such a large position I'd be picking up NET right now.

Big oof week in the market if you like growth companies. I just blew through my fun money buying stocks that have taken a hit, so the market will probably tank next week. Fair warning :p

You'll be alright.  You are a shrewd long-term investor and will manage the storms along the way.

[Skatastrophy]

You'll be alright.  You are a shrewd long-term investor and will manage the storms along the way.

The trick is to bring in so much cash every month that market downturns don't sting. I just need a few invoices paid so that I can refill my fun money, ya know? 

[TSmith34, Inc.]

Took a small position in Twitter this afternoon. Removing Jack Dorsey is a potential upside catalyst IMO.

[MU82]

Crazy end to a crazy week.

Did a little nibbling the last few days: FB, V, MA, MRK, RTX, GOOGL, a few others.

[Hards Alumni]

Crazy end to a crazy week.

Did a little nibbling the last few days: FB, V, MA, MRK, RTX, GOOGL, a few others.

Buy when there's blood in the streets

[JWags85]

Buy when there's blood in the streets

Market less than 5% off of all time highs.  FRIDAY BLOODY FRIDAY