Investing Thread

[MuggsyB]

Taxing unrealized gains on a yearly basis is not going to happen, just something being proposed by some on the far left but no republican or even moderate dems will support that.

Even if they did start taxing unrealized gains, if interest rates remain where they are now, why would anyone leave their money in cash? To earn zero and lose to inflation? Unless interest rates go up substantially, people with means will continue to invest in assets that can appreciate over time and outpace inflation. If they have gains and are being taxed, they would likely sell those assets to raise the cash to pay the tax. Either way if they made 10% and lose half to taxes, doesn't a net 5% still beat zero?

From my understanding, here are some of the proposals the Biden administraion has put out there:

1) Raising the top marginal rate back to 39.6 from the current 37 percent. This is happening regardless in 2025 as that is when the Trump tax cuts are expiring, which increases everyone's marginal tax rates, not just those above $400K. Under this proposal the higher marginal rates would apply to incomes over 452,700 for single filers, 481,000 for head of household and 509,300 for joint filers. Those numbers would then be indexed for inflation in future years.

2) Tax long-term capital gains as ordinary income for people with an AGI above 1 million, resulting in a top marginal rate of 43.4 when including the 3.8 percent Net Investment Income Tax.

3) Tax unrealized capital gains at death for unrealized gains over 1 million(2 million for joint filers)

4) Keep the capital gains exclusion of $250K/$500K for primary residence.

5) Limit like kind 1031 exchanges above $500K in capital gains

We'll see where they finally settle out, one thing is for sure tax rates will be higher in the future.

That's a good point about leaving money in cash.  But people will be forced to have more money in cash to pay these potential taxes.  I guess taxing long-term cap gains as income for those making 1 mill seems somewhat reasonable although I still think it disincemtivises people.  They may look to invest elsewhere or make less than 1 mill year. 

Yes, taxes will go up for everyone.  I have about ss much confidence in the "success" of these two potential bills as I do beating a kangaroo in a jumping contest.   I'm not even sure better roads and bridges will be built in the next 20 yrs. 

[MU82]

Taxing unrealized gains on a yearly basis is not going to happen, just something being proposed by some on the far left but no republican or even moderate dems will support that.

Even if they did start taxing unrealized gains, if interest rates remain where they are now, why would anyone leave their money in cash? To earn zero and lose to inflation? Unless interest rates go up substantially, people with means will continue to invest in assets that can appreciate over time and outpace inflation. If they have gains and are being taxed, they would likely sell those assets to raise the cash to pay the tax. Either way if they made 10% and lose half to taxes, doesn't a net 5% still beat zero?

From my understanding, here are some of the proposals the Biden administraion has put out there:

1) Raising the top marginal rate back to 39.6 from the current 37 percent. This is happening regardless in 2025 as that is when the Trump tax cuts are expiring, which increases everyone's marginal tax rates, not just those above $400K. Under this proposal the higher marginal rates would apply to incomes over 452,700 for single filers, 481,000 for head of household and 509,300 for joint filers. Those numbers would then be indexed for inflation in future years.

2) Tax long-term capital gains as ordinary income for people with an AGI above 1 million, resulting in a top marginal rate of 43.4 when including the 3.8 percent Net Investment Income Tax.

3) Tax unrealized capital gains at death for unrealized gains over 1 million(2 million for joint filers)

4) Keep the capital gains exclusion of $250K/$500K for primary residence.

5) Limit like kind 1031 exchanges above $500K in capital gains

We'll see where they finally settle out, one thing is for sure tax rates will be higher in the future.

Outstanding, valuable summary. Thanks!

[Lennys Tap]

We'll see where they finally settle out, one thing is for sure tax rates will be higher in the future.

My president has promised me that the only people who will pay more because of his proposals have incomes greater than 400,000 a year. He's a pretty funny guy, a'ina?

[Hards Alumni]

My president has promised me that the only people who will pay more because of his proposals have incomes greater than 400,000 a year. He's a pretty funny guy, a'ina?

Who would have figured that we'd all have to pay to live in a functioning society?

[TSmith34, Inc.]

My president has promised me that the only people who will pay more because of his proposals have incomes greater than 400,000 a year. He's a pretty funny guy, a'ina?

Which of the listed proposals impact you if you are under $400K?

[jesmu84]

Appreciate the thorough post. But we need more. Much more.

[JWags85]

Appreciate the thorough post. But we need more. Much more.

Like what?  Im not trying to pick on you but you continually complain about wealth inequality or post videos about rich getting richer with just some Robin Hood-like sentiment.  Im just bemused by the idea that the only solution for wealth inequality and a system that enables it is aggressive taxation.

[jesmu84]

Like what?  Im not trying to pick on you but you continually complain about wealth inequality or post videos about rich getting richer with just some Robin Hood-like sentiment.  Im just bemused by the idea that the only solution for wealth inequality and a system that enables it is aggressive taxation.

It's a good question. I'm no financial expert. But I do see the last 40 years aren't working. And, from what I've read/heard/seen, the changes in the last 40 years are all about deregulation of the financial industry and adjustments made to taxes.

So, I guess reversing those changes?

We need to have the discussion of whether or not there is even a problem at hand. I think yes. What about you?

And, if we agree there's a problem, what kinda thoughts do you have about solutions?

If you don't agree there's a problem, then no need to discuss further.

IMO, this isn't something that's going to be solved (if you agree there's a problem) by private organizations in a capitalist system, so it requires government intervention.

[Lennys Tap]

Which of the listed proposals impact you if you are under $400K?

Smitty

I don't know if it was one of the "listed" proposals but who do you think pays for the 33% increase in the corporate tax rate? The poor and the middle class, of course. And the slower growth, job josses and inflation that come as a byproduct of being less competitive on the world stage? They get to pay again.

[TSmith34, Inc.]

Smitty

I don't know if it was one of the "listed" proposals but who do you think pays for the 33% increase in the corporate tax rate? The poor and the middle class, of course. And the slower growth, job josses and inflation that come as a byproduct of being less competitive on the world stage? They get to pay again.

So finding no actual policy proposals that tax earners under $400K you want to pretend corporate tax rate increases are what you are talking about? Take the L dude.

[4everwarriors]

My president has promised me that the only people who will pay more because of his proposals have incomes greater than 400,000 a year. He's a pretty funny guy, a'ina?

FD Joe duzant no chit from shinola, hey?

[MU82]

FD Joe duzant no chit from shinola, hey?

Yeah, but does he think both chit and shinola are very fine people?

[forgetful]

Yeah, but does he think both chit and shinola are very fine people?

Are Chit and Shinola friends with PJ and Squi?

[Lennys Tap]

So finding no actual policy proposals that tax earners under $400K you want to pretend corporate tax rate increases are what you are talking about? Take the L dude.

Policy matters. When policies push gas prices higher, who do you think feels pain - those who earn 400,000+? When policies produce inflation, who do you think bears the brunt? How about when corporations pass on their tax increases to consumers? If you don't think the poor and middle class aren't already paying more in this she'll game you're very much mistaken. Dude.

[forgetful]

Policy matters. When policies push gas prices higher, who do you think feels pain - those who earn 400,000+? 1. When policies produce inflation, who do you think bears the brunt? 2. How about when corporations pass on their tax increases to consumers? If you don't think the poor and middle class aren't already paying more in this she'll game you're very much mistaken. Dude.

On 1. If you think the current inflation issues are the result of current administration policies, you do not understand the what is affecting the current economy.

On 2. Corporations didn't pass those tax savings onto the consumer, so why should we expect them to pass the tax increase onto consumers. They used the tax savings to increase CEO pay, and do stock buybacks.

[TSmith34, Inc.]

Policy matters. When policies push gas prices higher, who do you think feels pain - those who earn 400,000+? When policies produce inflation, who do you think bears the brunt? How about when corporations pass on their tax increases to consumers? If you don't think the poor and middle class aren't already paying more in this she'll game you're very much mistaken. Dude.

So again, zero of the proposed policies tax those earning under $400K. When you are wrong, you can admit, or you can go through a charade and move the goalposts Chicos style.

Inflation is not being caused by tax policies that are only in the proposal stage. Gas prices are driven by the macroeconomy. I suspect you know all this but are embarrassed that you made a dumb political statement and are now coming up with increasingly embarrassing rationale to try to support your inaccurate statement. Take.The.L.

[Dish]

$PTLO went public today. In my head, I thought $30 a share made sense, and that's where it landed most of the day.

Any thoughts early on here?

[tower912]

I am  buying stock in St. Louis

[MU82]

$PTLO went public today. In my head, I thought $30 a share made sense, and that's where it landed most of the day.

Any thoughts early on here?

I bought some shares of GDNA* to go with my PTLO, my friend.

*Giardiniera

Seriously, I put in a $25 limit order for some shares just because, but it started higher than that and never got lower. Closed at $29.10, but up a few percent after hours.

I only put in a day order, so I'll have to start over if I even want it -- the stock, that is. I always want the beef sammiches!

[TSmith34, Inc.]

Good stuff on both Q3 earnings and the ongoing supply chain issue and potential impact on Q4 from the Yahoo morning finance group* (Probably the only valuable thing remaining of what was once Yahoo):

"In fact, of the more than 140 S&P 500 companies that have reported earnings thus far, nearly 82% of them have beaten Wall Street's estimates, according to Refinitiv data. That's well above the historical average of 66%, the firm notes, even though the ratio of negative pre-announcements to positive ones (0.8) is running well below the long-term average (2.6).

Given the worries that foreshadowed the Q3 reporting season, it's almost enough to make you ask the question: What supply chain crisis?

The struggle to deliver goods and services — and to hire enough bodies to accomplish the task — is certainly writ large. Retailers and consumers alike are getting increasingly antsy about the holiday season, especially with inflation rearing its head — which was enough to hammer stocks in September, one of the most volatile months this year.

Yet, it's undeniable that companies are doing better than expected, and there are at least a couple of salient reasons behind this. So what's going on?

Over at Deutsche Bank, chief equity strategist Binky Chadha recently crunched the Q3 numbers, and found some noise in otherwise strong results. As it turns out, the stellar performance of big banks was largely attributed to the release of loan-loss reserves that Wall Street thought it needed to cushion the blow of COVID-19.

‌If you exclude those factors, the headline outperformance of S&P 500 companies in aggregate during Q3 is running at a comparatively tame 8%, well below the current levels over 80%. The median results are even less impressive, checking in at 5.2%.

"Forward consensus estimates have risen modestly, but mostly due to higher oil prices. Excluding energy, estimates for [the fourth quarter] and 2022 are down slightly," Reid said.

‌All told, it means the economy — and corporate America — isn't out of the woods just yet. Keep one eye on Q3 earnings, but the other on guidance for Q4 and the upcoming calendar year.

[TSmith34, Inc.]

Complete scam artist and liar takes Christofascist scions for $100M? What a shame.

"The family of former Education Secretary Betsy DeVos invested nearly $100 million in Theranos after a marathon meeting with the biotech startup's founder Elizabeth Holmes, a director of the billionaire's family office testified on Tuesday.

Peterson testified that Holmes was "hand picking" uber-wealthy families to invest in the Palo Alto company, which claimed its portable blood-testing devices could screen for scores of diseases with just the prick of a patient's finger. (But, according to federal prosecutors, Holmes and Balwani knew their technology didn't work as advertised, even as they peddled it to consumers and high-powered investors.)

Shortly after this meeting, Peterson and DeVos family members gathered in the Theranos parking lot to discuss their planned $50 million investment, which they ultimately doubled, the Wall Street Journal reported. (On Tuesday, the defense presented an email from Peterson that said RDV Corporation, with the blessing of siblings Doug and Cheri DeVos, had agreed to give Theranos $100 million "on the spot.")

Theranos also provided a copy of a study with Pfizer's logo, which suggested the pharma giant approved of the devices, Peterson added. (Last week, Pfizer scientist Shane Weber testified that he recommended the corporation decline a partnership with Theranos in 2008, and that the startup used Pfizer's logo without permission.)

Meanwhile, Peterson testified that the DeVos family office was concerned that if their investigation into Theranos was too thorough, the firm would rescind the invitation to invest in what was billed as a groundbreaking technology."

https://news.yahoo.com/elizabeth-holmes-totally-fooled-betsy-233111461.html

[jficke13]

Complete scam artist and liar takes Christofascist scions for $100M? What a shame.

"The family of former Education Secretary Betsy DeVos invested nearly $100 million in Theranos after a marathon meeting with the biotech startup's founder Elizabeth Holmes, a director of the billionaire's family office testified on Tuesday.

Peterson testified that Holmes was "hand picking" uber-wealthy families to invest in the Palo Alto company, which claimed its portable blood-testing devices could screen for scores of diseases with just the prick of a patient's finger. (But, according to federal prosecutors, Holmes and Balwani knew their technology didn't work as advertised, even as they peddled it to consumers and high-powered investors.)

Shortly after this meeting, Peterson and DeVos family members gathered in the Theranos parking lot to discuss their planned $50 million investment, which they ultimately doubled, the Wall Street Journal reported. (On Tuesday, the defense presented an email from Peterson that said RDV Corporation, with the blessing of siblings Doug and Cheri DeVos, had agreed to give Theranos $100 million "on the spot.")

Theranos also provided a copy of a study with Pfizer's logo, which suggested the pharma giant approved of the devices, Peterson added. (Last week, Pfizer scientist Shane Weber testified that he recommended the corporation decline a partnership with Theranos in 2008, and that the startup used Pfizer's logo without permission.)

Meanwhile, Peterson testified that the DeVos family office was concerned that if their investigation into Theranos was too thorough, the firm would rescind the invitation to invest in what was billed as a groundbreaking technology."

https://news.yahoo.com/elizabeth-holmes-totally-fooled-betsy-233111461.html

Gotta be some good Amway "pull yourself up by your bootstraps" advice we can give to her. Arch pyramid schemer falls victim to scheme, I have no sympathy to give.

[Goose]

I think that there is a lot financial engineering going into corporate earnings at the moment. To say that I am shocked with some of the earnings is an understatement. I have noted many times on the firsthand evidence on the supply chain side, rising costs and increased labor costs, yet all have gone unnoticed in the big boys earnings. While I hope I am 100% wrong, I am becoming more skeptical on how earnings are being reported. I expected beat on the top line due to higher sales prices, I thought bottomline  would suffer.

[Hards Alumni]

I think that there is a lot financial engineering going into corporate earnings at the moment. To say that I am shocked with some of the earnings is an understatement. I have noted many times on the firsthand evidence on the supply chain side, rising costs and increased labor costs, yet all have gone unnoticed in the big boys earnings. While I hope I am 100% wrong, I am becoming more skeptical on how earnings are being reported. I expected beat on the top line due to higher sales prices, I thought bottomline  would suffer.

China has raised prices on a lot of goods... as you well know. 

Inflation imported from the East.

[MuggsyB]

Should I sell AAPL today as I'm officially up over 200%?  Or should I wait 15+ yrs and buy more on the dips?  I think most people are worried about a major market correction in the next year.