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Author Topic: Investing Thread  (Read 288421 times)

JWags85

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Re: Investing Thread
« Reply #1450 on: June 16, 2021, 01:13:50 AM »

--I find her investing style to be a little too momentum and hot-name oriented for me. Its like Heisy is one of her analysts.

I agree. Cathie's a brilliant salesperson but I’ve decided I don’t like the way she runs her portfolios.

Bingo.  I have a FinTwit Twitter list thats largely just amusement but is a decent sentiment tracker.  It feels like whatever names the daytraders, weekly option swingers, and WSB non-meme factions are on...have heavy ARK weight.  I'm honestly not convinced she's any good at fund management.  She feels like the people who made a killing in Crypto runs cause they just push all their chips into momentum names and ride a euphoric bull market.  But we can see when she takes a beating, while the aforementioned crew just gets quiet as they get slaughtered.

Also, her close association with Bill Hwang is a major red flag.  He was the same game, massive leverage hot hand let it ride until it didnt work.

TSmith34, Inc.

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Re: Investing Thread
« Reply #1451 on: June 16, 2021, 01:26:27 PM »
REALLY like CRSP and EDIT.  I own chunks of both and add a bit on pullbacks.

Agree on the sector.  Reminds me of what my Dad has talked about the semiconductor sector in the late 80s/early 90s. He picked 4-5 best of breed that he knew from working with.  2 went bankrupt, 1 doubled, the other 2 paid for the down payment on the house I grew up in. It’s that sort of transformational space
Even bigger bloodbath today. I don't see any specific news driving this, but may be overlooking it. I do see that a Director unloaded a big chunk (almost $15M) of NTLA, but insider sales are seldom an indicator of anything other than someone wants some cash.

Added to the worst hit today, BEAM and NTLA.
If you think for one second that I am comparing the USA to China you have bumped your hard.

MU82

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Re: Investing Thread
« Reply #1452 on: June 21, 2021, 07:01:47 AM »
Credit Suisse is among many analytical firms that is forecasting "a period of choppy sideways trade," given the volatility associated with the Fed debate. But CS is also a big believer in the Fed's "transitory" theme, expecting price pressures to moderate in the coming quarters. "Once that happens, concerns about yields and inflation will likely calm down," CS said.

But not everyone is on board with Credit Suisse's thesis. "The headwinds are building for the equity market," Moody's Analytics Mark Zandi declared, expecting a more hawkish Fed to spark a 10% to 20% pullback. 'Big Short' investor Michael Burry has also recently warned of the "mother of all crashes," with "MainStreet losses approaching the size of countries," given the FOMO for unsustainable asset prices, meme stocks and crypto. Robert Kiyosaki, the author of Rich Dad Poor Dad, is on that train as well. "Biggest bubble in world history getting bigger," he tweeted on June 19. "Biggest crash in world history coming."

+++

So if some folks here agree with Kiyosaki, Zandi, etc, what are you gonna do about it?

If I believed strongly in it, I'd sell everything and go to all cash. Inflation would eat at the cash, but 5% or even 10% inflation is a hell of a lot better than "the biggest crash in world history" taking away 50% of my stock-market wealth.

Of course, many "experts" were predicting the same in 2012, 2014, 2016 and 2018. One of these days, they'll be right, or at least partially right. But if one bought in back in 2014, one would have forfeited significant gains in arguably the greatest bull market ever.

Fun times to be an investor!
“It’s not how white men fight.” - Tucker Carlson

reinko

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Re: Investing Thread
« Reply #1453 on: June 28, 2021, 10:12:14 AM »
Here is a little more speculative investment for those who like riskier bets. Today was a big down day for the companies in the gene-editing sector so I took the opportunity this morning to create a mini-portfolio that consisted of:

Full positions: BEAM, CRSP, NTLA, DTIL
Half positions: EDIT, CLLS, SGMO

I fully expect a shakeout in the industry and some of these companies, perhaps even a majority, will either go out of business or get absorbed by bigger players at lower prices that they are at today. However, I believe one or two will turn into 10 to 20 baggers over the next 10 years. My overall expectation/projection/hope is for a 4x-6x increase on the total value of the portfolio.

We shall see.

Not too shabby of a day

TSmith34, Inc.

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Re: Investing Thread
« Reply #1454 on: June 28, 2021, 12:09:29 PM »
Not too shabby of a day
Indeed. Rising tide (NTLA) lifting all boats.
If you think for one second that I am comparing the USA to China you have bumped your hard.

TSmith34, Inc.

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Re: Investing Thread
« Reply #1455 on: June 29, 2021, 08:52:32 AM »
A couple of snippets from Yahoo Finance this morning:

"Data from FactSet published last Friday showed a record 66 of companies in the S&P 500 have offered guidance above Street estimates for Q2. The prior record of 59 came ahead of Q1 earnings. And, as we covered several times in the Morning Brief, Wall Street just could not keep pace during the first three months of 2021.

"This fits into our longstanding thesis that the Street’s aggregate $44.79/share for Q2 2021 S&P 500 earnings remains too low," Colas added. "Remember that Q1 2021 came in at $49/share. Why would Q2 be any less than that, given incremental economic growth?" the analyst asked.

If you think for one second that I am comparing the USA to China you have bumped your hard.

forgetful

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Re: Investing Thread
« Reply #1456 on: June 29, 2021, 11:25:10 AM »
Indeed. Rising tide (NTLA) lifting all boats.

I'm notoriously bad at investing, but I can't see NTLA being worth its current valuation. Where CRISPR is going to be most useful is in rare diseases like ATTR. I don't see how it can be that profitable. Not enough people with the illness. The majority being elderly and likely on government healthcare. I can't see them being able to price these treatments high enough to justify valuations.

TSmith34, Inc.

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Re: Investing Thread
« Reply #1457 on: June 29, 2021, 12:06:23 PM »
I'm notoriously bad at investing, but I can't see NTLA being worth its current valuation. Where CRISPR is going to be most useful is in rare diseases like ATTR. I don't see how it can be that profitable. Not enough people with the illness. The majority being elderly and likely on government healthcare. I can't see them being able to price these treatments high enough to justify valuations.
Valuations right now are nothing more than wild guesses based on promise, given all these companies are quite a ways from bringing therapies to market at all much less profitably. NTLA just provided proof-of-concept of in vivo success and the market decided that was worth a 50% bump in share price.

There are some crazy expensive specialty drugs on the market, though a better comparison might be GILD when they developed the breakthrough cure for Hep C. Pricing started at $120K/person, and governments negotiated that down to $64K. I think the price dropped further once they got the regimen down to 8 weeks, but still public entities were paying a steep price.

I don't profess to be an expert on the technology or the economics for specific diseases, but in aggregate the market thinks there is something pretty big here.
If you think for one second that I am comparing the USA to China you have bumped your hard.

TSmith34, Inc.

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Re: Investing Thread
« Reply #1458 on: June 30, 2021, 10:16:02 AM »
I'm notoriously bad at investing, but I can't see NTLA being worth its current valuation. Where CRISPR is going to be most useful is in rare diseases like ATTR. I don't see how it can be that profitable. Not enough people with the illness. The majority being elderly and likely on government healthcare. I can't see them being able to price these treatments high enough to justify valuations.

Article from Motley Fool that brings up the issue that you highlighted, namely can this actually be profitable and if so when? No doubt that valuations will eventually follow earnings, but that might be a relatively long way in the future. NTLA bouncing again today.

In the meantime, as I said in the initial post, I fully expect a good portion of these companies to fail due to inferior technology, execution, or just targeting unprofitable sectors. I don't know which those will be so I spread my bets amongst the companies that seemed best situated to my inexpert eye.

Can Intellia Therapeutics Turn Exciting Trial Results into Profits?
New proof-of-concept results are a big deal for the medical community, but what about for your portfolio?
https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/06/30/can-intellia-turn-landmark-data-into-product-sales/?source=eptyholnk0000202&utm_source=yahoo-host&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=article

"The compelling trial results that sent Intellia's stock price soaring 50% on the first trading day following the big announcement were measured just 28 days after patients were treated. This is a terrific beginning, but it's going to be a long time before we know if NTLA-2001 can generate enough sales to offset Intellia's investment. This trial's primary analysis doesn't occur until two years after treatment of the last patient.

Regeneron has agreed to pay for roughly half of NTLA-2001's development expenses, but Intellia still burned through $149 million over the past year. Worldwide, there are only about 50,000 people living with hereditary amyloidosis and only a fraction of this population is diagnosed with ATTR-PN. As a gene therapy to be administered just once, Intellia needs to put a seven-figure price tag on NTLA-2001 and reach a significant portion of its addressable patient population just to break even.

With competition from Alnylam Pharmaceuticals' (NASDAQ:ALNY) Onpattro for a limited population of ATTR-PN patients, NTLA-2001 sales probably won't bring Intellia to profitability. Fortunately, Regeneron's collaboration deal with Intellia includes up to 15 targets, and the transthyretin gene is just the first.

We'll probably hear about Intellia beginning more than one study with new on-the-fly gene-editing candidates before the end of the year, which will accelerate operating expenses. It could be years before Intellia can make ends meet, but its clinical-stage pipeline is about to swell to several times its current size."
If you think for one second that I am comparing the USA to China you have bumped your hard.

TSmith34, Inc.

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Re: Investing Thread
« Reply #1459 on: June 30, 2021, 12:16:04 PM »
Good luck!

Do you own Cathie Wood’s ARKG?
Why I am glad I didn't go the ARK route. From Seeking Alpha:

Rally for gene editing stocks continues into third day, boosted by Intellia

Biotech companies that are focused on the gene editing space for treatments are continuing higher for the third straight day.

* Beam Therapeutics (BEAM +15.7%), Editas Medicine (EDIT +16.6%), and Verve Therapeutics (VERV +21.7%) are up double-digit percentages.

* CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP +8.1%), bluebird bio (BLUE +6.1%), and Sangamo Therapeutics (SGMO +4.6%) are up single-digit percentages.

* The ARK Genomic Revolution Multi-Sector ETF (ARKG +0.2%) is barely higher.

* The best performing gene editing stock so far today is Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA +22.4%). The stock has had massive gains this week following a significant development in one of its CRISPR candidates.
If you think for one second that I am comparing the USA to China you have bumped your hard.

MU82

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Re: Investing Thread
« Reply #1460 on: September 21, 2021, 09:00:34 AM »
Here's a shock ...

Steven Mnuchin raises $2.5 billion for his new private equity firm. The former Treasury secretary in the Trump administration is getting some of the money from sovereign wealth funds in the Middle East, including Saudi Arabia, where he traveled extensively while in government.

“It’s not how white men fight.” - Tucker Carlson

JWags85

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Re: Investing Thread
« Reply #1461 on: September 21, 2021, 09:19:41 AM »
No civilians are going to be in that PE firm or fund.  So maybe save that crap for one of the political free for all threads and not here?

MU82

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Re: Investing Thread
« Reply #1462 on: September 21, 2021, 10:37:48 AM »
No civilians are going to be in that PE firm or fund.  So maybe save that crap for one of the political free for all threads and not here?

As you know, private equity firms do get involved in publicly traded companies. There are hostile takeovers, attempts to take over BoDs, attempts to force M&A activity, etc. So this obvious conflict-of-interest situation could affect "civilian" investors.

And nobody had posted here since June, so it's not as if this I was changing the subject at hand or anything.

But I appreciate your willingness to play Scoop Cop, Wags, and will be looking for the same from you in other threads!
“It’s not how white men fight.” - Tucker Carlson

JWags85

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Re: Investing Thread
« Reply #1463 on: September 21, 2021, 02:15:57 PM »
As you know, private equity firms do get involved in publicly traded companies. There are hostile takeovers, attempts to take over BoDs, attempts to force M&A activity, etc. So this obvious conflict-of-interest situation could affect "civilian" investors.

And nobody had posted here since June, so it's not as if this I was changing the subject at hand or anything.

But I appreciate your willingness to play Scoop Cop, Wags, and will be looking for the same from you in other threads!

Its just a clear political tangent that has all the potential to rile people up into the same nonsesne in other threads.

And I'm not Scoop Cop, I'm just sick of 80% of threads in the Superbar/COVID board being hijacked with political crap throwing.  This is hardly the first time Ive said it.  It ruins our once great democratic Scoop republic.

JWags85

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Re: Investing Thread
« Reply #1464 on: September 28, 2021, 10:31:30 PM »
Back to talk of taxing unrealized capital gains.  Yellen quoted today as saying "unrealized capital gains are income".

This is just sheer lunacy.  I know they are trying to find ways to tax the ultra rich, but this is just a disaster fundamentally that will harm a lot of people.  I get the potential idea of restrictions against borrowing against stock positions or the like, but otherwise these proposals are unenforceable messes.

TSmith34, Inc.

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Re: Investing Thread
« Reply #1465 on: September 29, 2021, 09:37:16 AM »
Back to talk of taxing unrealized capital gains.  Yellen quoted today as saying "unrealized capital gains are income".

This is just sheer lunacy.  I know they are trying to find ways to tax the ultra rich, but this is just a disaster fundamentally that will harm a lot of people.  I get the potential idea of restrictions against borrowing against stock positions or the like, but otherwise these proposals are unenforceable messes.
I agree. It would also be a nightmare having to recalibrate unrealized gains and losses each year and make tax planning impossible. Just close the carried interest loophole already.

In other news, rough day for Editas. Good initial clinical data but not as good, I suspect, as the market was hoping. I only took a half position in EDIT, but was really surprised how well it was performing prior to this relative to the basket I constructed.

I saw that Cathie Woods had sold off a portion of her EDIT prior to the news but increased her positions in CRSP and BEAM. That's consistent with my mini-portfolio where I have a half position in EDIT, full position in CRSP, and a position-and-a-half in BEAM. Been disappointed with CRSP's relative performance so I've nibbled on some extra shares in other accounts separate from the portfolio I am tracking.
If you think for one second that I am comparing the USA to China you have bumped your hard.

MU82

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Re: Investing Thread
« Reply #1466 on: September 29, 2021, 09:51:18 AM »
I agree. It would also be a nightmare having to recalibrate unrealized gains and losses each year and make tax planning impossible. Just close the carried interest loophole already.

In other news, rough day for Editas. Good initial clinical data but not as good, I suspect, as the market was hoping. I only took a half position in EDIT, but was really surprised how well it was performing prior to this relative to the basket I constructed.

I saw that Cathie Woods had sold off a portion of her EDIT prior to the news but increased her positions in CRSP and BEAM. That's consistent with my mini-portfolio where I have a half position in EDIT, full position in CRSP, and a position-and-a-half in BEAM. Been disappointed with CRSP's relative performance so I've nibbled on some extra shares in other accounts separate from the portfolio I am tracking.

Cathie Woods churns her portfolios so aggressively, I have trouble figuring out what she's trying to do.

As for taxing unrealized capital gains, isn't this latest proposal only upon death or have I missed something else? I agree that what I've seen on this is pretty crazy.
“It’s not how white men fight.” - Tucker Carlson

TSmith34, Inc.

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Re: Investing Thread
« Reply #1467 on: September 29, 2021, 10:15:14 AM »
Cathie Woods churns her portfolios so aggressively, I have trouble figuring out what she's trying to do.

As for taxing unrealized capital gains, isn't this latest proposal only upon death or have I missed something else? I agree that what I've seen on this is pretty crazy.
Oh is the proposal just to do away with step up value at death? Much as that will eventually pain me (well, not really 'cause I'll be dead and all), it makes logical sense.
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jesmu84

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Re: Investing Thread
« Reply #1468 on: September 29, 2021, 10:30:53 AM »
The last 40 years have seen the worst wealth redistribution in the history of this country.

Reform is needed.

Taxing capital in some significant way is needed.

MU82

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Re: Investing Thread
« Reply #1469 on: September 29, 2021, 10:39:10 AM »
Oh is the proposal just to do away with step up value at death? Much as that will eventually pain me (well, not really 'cause I'll be dead and all), it makes logical sense.

That's the main thing, but Oregon Dem Ron Wyden (who is chair of the Senate Finance Committee) also has proposed that billionaires (and only billionaires) would have their annual gains in wealth treated as income. In other words, a person's whose net wealth rose from $10 billion to $12 billion would have $2 billion of taxable income even if he didn't sell anything.

I understand the idea of it. It would keep the 0.1% from paying the relatively small percentage they do in taxes. But administration could be ridiculously difficult, and the great tax people that rich folks hire surely would find ways around this tax, too.

Biden has kind of given it support, but only kind of, saying: “Look, I support a lot of these proposals. We don’t need all of the proposals I support to pay for this" multi-trillion dollar spending bill he's trying to get passed.
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MuggsyB

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Re: Investing Thread
« Reply #1470 on: September 29, 2021, 10:57:16 AM »
That's the main thing, but Oregon Dem Ron Wyden (who is chair of the Senate Finance Committee) also has proposed that billionaires (and only billionaires) would have their annual gains in wealth treated as income. In other words, a person's whose net wealth rose from $10 billion to $12 billion would have $2 billion of taxable income even if he didn't sell anything.

I understand the idea of it. It would keep the 0.1% from paying the relatively small percentage they do in taxes. But administration could be ridiculously difficult, and the great tax people that rich folks hire surely would find ways around this tax, too.

Biden has kind of given it support, but only kind of, saying: “Look, I support a lot of these proposals. We don’t need all of the proposals I support to pay for this" multi-trillion dollar spending bill he's trying to get passed.

So are you saying pay tax on the capital gains even if the billionaire doesn't sell any stock?  I'm trying to look at this on a smaller scale (where I assume most of us relate) and will share one personal example: 

I recall having a discussion about APPL and that some Scooper told people to sell it a while back and admitted he made a mistake.  I because of mostly dumb luck  bought a decent chunk a few years ago and it's gone up about 270%.  Is your contention that I should pay 20% or if Biden raises it 28% capital gains taxes plus dividends, even if I don't sell the stock?   What happens when I do decide to sell it?  I pay another 28%?  Maybe I'm confused but how exactly would this work?  Wouldn't it also force billionaires to have more of their portfolio in. cash?

MU82

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Re: Investing Thread
« Reply #1471 on: September 29, 2021, 11:15:09 AM »
So are you saying pay tax on the capital gains even if the billionaire doesn't sell any stock?  I'm trying to look at this on a smaller scale (where I assume most of us relate) and will share one personal example: 

I recall having a discussion about APPL and that some Scooper told people to sell it a while back and admitted he made a mistake.  I because of mostly dumb luck  bought a decent chunk a few years ago and it's gone up about 270%.  Is your contention that I should pay 20% or if Biden raises it 28% capital gains taxes plus dividends, even if I don't sell the stock?   What happens when I do decide to sell it?  I pay another 28%?  Maybe I'm confused but how exactly would this work?  Wouldn't it also force billionaires to have more of their portfolio in. cash?

I don't say any of this. It's not my proposal, and I doubt it will become law.

As for what I understand about your questions ...

1. I assume you're not a billionaire; if not, it wouldn't apply to you one iota.

B. If you were a billionaire, I wouldn't feel very sorry for you.

3. As I said, I doubt this proposal sees the light of day.

D. I don't have answers for most of the questions that you're all stoked about.
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JWags85

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Re: Investing Thread
« Reply #1472 on: September 29, 2021, 11:15:43 AM »
Oh is the proposal just to do away with step up value at death? Much as that will eventually pain me (well, not really 'cause I'll be dead and all), it makes logical sense.

There is a lot of discussion about year to year capital gains too, not just step away/estate valuation.

That's the main thing, but Oregon Dem Ron Wyden (who is chair of the Senate Finance Committee) also has proposed that billionaires (and only billionaires) would have their annual gains in wealth treated as income. In other words, a person's whose net wealth rose from $10 billion to $12 billion would have $2 billion of taxable income even if he didn't sell anything.

I just have a fundamental issue with taxing of paper gains (or losses) and tying things to "wealth" instead of income doesnt sit well with me.  It opens a lot of compartments in Pandora's Box.

Say Joe Billionaire is worth $1.5B, largely in his own company's stock.  They have a great year, bring out new profits, that stock is worth $3B next year.  So he owes taxes on these unrealized gains of $1.5B, ok.  Well there is a recession, global logistic issues, civil war where his manufacturing exists, and the value of his shares plummet to $500MM.  Will he get tax credits for that loss?  Of course not.  People will naturally say "well he's still rich!" but thats not the point and not how legislation should be drafted.

My main issue is there are COUNTLESS loopholes that can be closed or amended.  But thats hard work and takes political maneuvering, heavy lifting, and concessions...so instead go for big splashy new taxes that look great as a headline and just make everything more convoluted and create many more billable hours for tax attorneys and accountants.

The Sultan of Semantics

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Re: Investing Thread
« Reply #1473 on: September 29, 2021, 11:17:16 AM »
Or we could do away with the notion of qualified dividends with their lower tax rate, and just tax dividends as regular income.  I get the problem with taxing unrealized gains, but if the income off those stock holdings were taxed normally, I think there would be more equity in the system.

Because right now, using Wags' example above, Joe Billionaire isn't paying himself much of a salary from his company, he's just paying himself qualified dividend income at the lower tax rate.
« Last Edit: September 29, 2021, 11:19:58 AM by Fluffy Blue Monster »
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MU82

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Re: Investing Thread
« Reply #1474 on: September 29, 2021, 11:22:51 AM »
There is a lot of discussion about year to year capital gains too, not just step away/estate valuation.

I just have a fundamental issue with taxing of paper gains (or losses) and tying things to "wealth" instead of income doesnt sit well with me.  It opens a lot of compartments in Pandora's Box.

Say Joe Billionaire is worth $1.5B, largely in his own company's stock.  They have a great year, bring out new profits, that stock is worth $3B next year.  So he owes taxes on these unrealized gains of $1.5B, ok.  Well there is a recession, global logistic issues, civil war where his manufacturing exists, and the value of his shares plummet to $500MM.  Will he get tax credits for that loss?  Of course not.  People will naturally say "well he's still rich!" but thats not the point and not how legislation should be drafted.

My main issue is there are COUNTLESS loopholes that can be closed or amended.  But thats hard work and takes political maneuvering, heavy lifting, and concessions...so instead go for big splashy new taxes that look great as a headline and just make everything more convoluted and create many more billable hours for tax attorneys and accountants.

One of the (many) sticking points that has been mentioned is just what you talk about here. You're going to "penalize" a rich person for a good year but then not offer credits for a bad year? As I said, the administration of all of this would be crazy, and good tax people will still find loopholes. Seems like a loser to me. It's a wet dream for some on the far left, and I really doubt it happens.
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