Investing Thread

[TSmith34, Inc.]

Thank you overreacting irrational market.

Step 1 - Rumor gets floated that AMZN will enter brick-and-mortar space through Whole Foods locations. CVS gets marked down, never mind that even if rumor is true it would be a year before this happens

Step 2 - TSmith34 goes long short term calls

Step 3 - Profit

[Not A Serious Person]

why no talk of loss porn?

I'll go first, I sold AAPL in late 2016.

How about you?

[MU82]

NEW YORK (AP) -- As COVID-19 ravaged the world last year, CEOs’ big pay packages seemed to be under as much threat as everything else.

Fortunately for those CEOs, many had boards of directors willing to see the pandemic as an extraordinary event beyond their control. Across the country, boards made changes to the intricate formulas that determine their CEOs’ pay – and other moves – that helped make up for losses created by the crisis.

As a result, pay packages rose yet again last year for the CEOs of the biggest companies, even though the pandemic sent the economy to its worst quarter on record and slashed corporate profits around the world. The median pay package for a CEO at an S&P 500 company hit $12.7 million in 2020, according to data analyzed by Equilar for The Associated Press. That means half the CEOs in the survey made more, and half made less. It’s 5% more than the median pay for that same group of CEOs in 2019 and an acceleration from the 4.1% climb in last year’s survey.

Thank goodness, these poor men and women didn't have to miss a meal and were able to keep roofs over their heads.

[TSmith34, Inc.]

why no talk of loss porn?

I'll go first, I sold AAPL in late 2016.

How about you?

I held two stocks far too long. One was a ADIC, a storage management hardware and software company that eventually got acquired at 1/4 its peak price. The other was a Chinese solar firm that I finally bailed on at 1/10th its peak. Those two cost me $400K.

[reinko]

I held two stocks far too long. One was a ADIC, a storage management hardware and software company that eventually got acquired at 1/4 its peak price. The other was a Chinese solar firm that I finally bailed on at 1/10th its peak. Those two cost me $400K.

Ya never want to hold ADIC for too long

[MU82]

I held two stocks far too long. One was a ADIC, a storage management hardware and software company that eventually got acquired at 1/4 its peak price. The other was a Chinese solar firm that I finally bailed on at 1/10th its peak. Those two cost me $400K.

Jeezus Criminy ... 400 large? I appreciate you sharing because now my pathetic losses now don't seem that bad! (Sorry about that.) My worst was WCOM back during the dot-com frenzy, but that was only $8,800. Lost a few grand more on several others back then: NT, PALM, LU, JDSU, AOL ... all the hot names, because how could anybody go wrong?

I got out of the market for several years after that debacle and by the time I got back in I was a much more "boring" investor: JNJ, MSFT, PEP, WEC, AAPL, MCD, PM, MMM, NEE ... so I don't have many that have zoomed out of orbit, but I also don't have tragic stories.

My biggest "mistakes" have been stocks I either sold too soon (such as DIS last year, TGT a couple years ago, DE a year or two before that), or stocks I identified as buys but passed on anyway only to watch them soar (AMZN and FB years ago, TWLO more recently). I passed on LMT at 82 back in 2012 only to finally end up buying significantly higher years later. That kind of dopey stuff.

The thing about losers or mistakes is that hopefully we learn from them and become better investors. I'm sure that was the case for you.

[TSmith34, Inc.]

I still made money on Advanced Digital, just left $300K on the table by holding on way too long. Took a bath on Sun Power, however.

[Skatastrophy]

I haven't had a large loss, just the opportunity cost of holding that are trading sideways for forever trying to avoid losses...

I held GRUB for way too long, just to get out at breakeven. I cashed out AAPL at ~$90.

I'm unlikely to lose money on NET and IPOE (trading as SOFI starting Tuesday), but I will likely hold for too long. My exit planning is based on moonshots instead of common sense.

[JWags85]

I bought dips in CHK and RIG and made easy doubles...and then continued to hold them as they plummeted again cause in my mind they were cruising to $100+.

I sold long held DIS shares I’d received and further accumulated as a kid and teen around $75 in 13/14 cause it was historically really high and I wanted to free up cash to play around with other names....whoops.

I'm unlikely to lose money on NET and IPOE (trading as SOFI starting Tuesday), but I will likely hold for too long. My exit planning is based on moonshots instead of common sense.

Be careful with IPOE/SOFI.  I say that solely as being incredibly wary of Chamath and thinking he’s a total snake oil salesman who wants to dump shares into bag holders he accumulates through pomp and preaching on Twitter and CNBC.  This sort of illustrates what I’m talking about

https://twitter.com/epsilontheory/status/1397749998733910016?s=21

I like Cloudflare a lot though.  They have some really smart people and are doing some really cool stuff.  Graham-Cumming, their CTO, is brilliant 

[Skatastrophy]

Be careful with IPOE/SOFI.  I say that solely as being incredibly wary of Chamath and thinking he’s a total snake oil salesman who wants to dump shares into bag holders he accumulates through pomp and preaching on Twitter and CNBC.  This sort of illustrates what I’m talking about

https://twitter.com/epsilontheory/status/1397749998733910016?s=21

I like Cloudflare a lot though.  They have some really smart people and are doing some really cool stuff.  Graham-Cumming, their CTO, is brilliant 

I'm both a NET and a SOFI customer. Both have simplified products compared to their competitors, and excellent customer acquisition strategies. I feel like they both have the opportunity to 100x over the next 5 years... but I've been wrong so many times I wouldn't listen to me.

I'll start by saying I sort of agree with you on Chamath. That being said: No offense to that Twitter thread, but Gross/Net IRR is a common metric at VCs when you're chatting with your LPs. With Chamath running a few SPACs he's considering the world to be his LPs. I work with/at VCs and in early-stage companies, so I'm very comfortable with this space. Chamath operates like most of the VCs/founders I work with: They are selling 100% of the time, and the numbers are all ideal/fabricated. It's good to keep an eye out for that type of person for sure if you're used to straight shooters or non-growth companies.

That all being said I'm not a SPAC gambler. I specifically wanted to buy SOFI. SOFI & IPOE already merged (or are in the process of merging this week), so the remaining risk is unaudited financials because SPACs are definitely not well regulated right now.

Despite me DCAing into IPOE over the past few months I'm still down ~20%, so slap that subscribe button if you want more of my stock tips!

[Not A Serious Person]

anyone (still?) long the meme stocks?

[Hards Alumni]

why no talk of loss porn?

I'll go first, I sold AAPL in late 2016.

How about you?

Is there a character limit per post on this board?

My biggest donk has been WKHS or COIN.  Hoping COIN bounces back.

[Hards Alumni]

Is there a character limit per post on this board?

My biggest donk has been WKHS or COIN.  Hoping COIN bounces back.

Uhhhhh thanks /r/WallStreeBets, I guess?

[Skatastrophy]

Uhhhhh thanks /r/WallStreeBets, I guess?

lol perfect timing

[Hards Alumni]

lol perfect timing

The real problem I have now is I have no idea where to cut bait and dump.

[Skatastrophy]

The real problem I have now is I have no idea where to cut bait and dump.

I know very little about the gas vehicle or the EV space, but that doesn't preclude me from having an opinion: Ford launching the F-150 Lightning seems to be a sign that having a decent EV platform is no longer a huge differentiator.

Edit: This is coming from a guy that has considered Tesla a bad bet for years, so ymmv. Pun intended.

[Hards Alumni]

I know very little about the gas vehicle or the EV space, but that doesn't preclude me from having an opinion: Ford launching the F-150 Lightning seems to be a sign that having a decent EV platform is no longer a huge differentiator.

Edit: This is coming from a guy that has considered Tesla a bad bet for years, so ymmv. Pun intended.

My original investment was when it seemed to have been a forgone conclusion that WKHS would be the company developing and manufacturing the USPS EV fleet of delivery vehicles.  Then, seemingly, without any reason given the contract was awarded to Oshkosh Defense.  There is a lawsuit pending.

I have chalked the entire investment up as a major L.  It was neat to see it creep up a little today, but I should have just cut bait this morning.  Guess I'll sit on it long term and hope some of the money comes back.

[SERocks]

Is there a character limit per post on this board?

My biggest donk has been WKHS or COIN.  Hoping COIN bounces back.

I don't know your time frame, but I would think the COIN timeframe is years, if not a decade at least.  Hardly a donk at this point, unless you were looking for a quick pop to dump out of it.

[Hards Alumni]

I don't know your time frame, but I would think the COIN timeframe is years, if not a decade at least.  Hardly a donk at this point, unless you were looking for a quick pop to dump out of it.

Nah, just expected a bit more of a moonshot at the time.  The hold is very much long term.

[JWags85]

I don't know your time frame, but I would think the COIN timeframe is years, if not a decade at least.  Hardly a donk at this point, unless you were looking for a quick pop to dump out of it.

My worry with COIN would be both competition stealing even more share (Gemini, Binance, etc...) and as a result, they may have to shave their aggressive fees

[TSmith34, Inc.]

Here is a little more speculative investment for those who like riskier bets. Today was a big down day for the companies in the gene-editing sector so I took the opportunity this morning to create a mini-portfolio that consisted of:

Full positions: BEAM, CRSP, NTLA, DTIL
Half positions: EDIT, CLLS, SGMO

I fully expect a shakeout in the industry and some of these companies, perhaps even a majority, will either go out of business or get absorbed by bigger players at lower prices that they are at today. However, I believe one or two will turn into 10 to 20 baggers over the next 10 years. My overall expectation/projection/hope is for a 4x-6x increase on the total value of the portfolio.

We shall see.

[MU82]

Here is a little more speculative investment for those who like riskier bets. Today was a big down day for the companies in the gene-editing sector so I took the opportunity this morning to create a mini-portfolio that consisted of:

Full positions: BEAM, CRSP, NTLA, DTIL
Half positions: EDIT, CLLS, SGMO

I fully expect a shakeout in the industry and some of these companies, perhaps even a majority, will either go out of business or get absorbed by bigger players at lower prices that they are at today. However, I believe one or two will turn into 10 to 20 baggers over the next 10 years. My overall expectation/projection/hope is for a 4x-6x increase on the total value of the portfolio.

We shall see.

Good luck!

Do you own Cathie Wood’s ARKG?

[JWags85]

Here is a little more speculative investment for those who like riskier bets. Today was a big down day for the companies in the gene-editing sector so I took the opportunity this morning to create a mini-portfolio that consisted of:

Full positions: BEAM, CRSP, NTLA, DTIL
Half positions: EDIT, CLLS, SGMO

I fully expect a shakeout in the industry and some of these companies, perhaps even a majority, will either go out of business or get absorbed by bigger players at lower prices that they are at today. However, I believe one or two will turn into 10 to 20 baggers over the next 10 years. My overall expectation/projection/hope is for a 4x-6x increase on the total value of the portfolio.

We shall see.

REALLY like CRSP and EDIT.  I own chunks of both and add a bit on pullbacks.

Agree on the sector.  Reminds me of what my Dad has talked about the semiconductor sector in the late 80s/early 90s. He picked 4-5 best of breed that he knew from working with.  2 went bankrupt, 1 doubled, the other 2 paid for the down payment on the house I grew up in. It’s that sort of transformational space

[TSmith34, Inc.]

Good luck!

Do you own Cathie Wood’s ARKG?

I do not own it. Two reasons:

--I looked at it, but the selections in that fund span a broader range within genomics whereas I wanted to concentrate more specifically in the gene editing space.
--I find her investing style to be a little too momentum and hot-name oriented for me. Its like Heisy is one of her analysts.

[MU82]

I do not own it. Two reasons:

--I looked at it, but the selections in that fund span a broader range within genomics whereas I wanted to concentrate more specifically in the gene editing space.
--I find her investing style to be a little too momentum and hot-name oriented for me. Its like Heisy is one of her analysts.

I agree. Cathie's a brilliant salesperson but I’ve decided I don’t like the way she runs her portfolios.