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Author Topic: Investing Thread  (Read 115501 times)

TSmith34

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Re: Investing Thread
« Reply #1600 on: December 08, 2021, 09:41:21 AM »
Growth has picked up, they have a fanatical user base, and are sitting on a mountain of cash that lets them do whatever they want--buybacks, acquisitions, raising the dividend, or developing an Apple Car.

Just my opinion, they probably aren't undervalued but I don't see them as wildly overvalued either.

MU82

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Re: Investing Thread
« Reply #1601 on: December 08, 2021, 09:53:24 AM »
Growth has picked up, they have a fanatical user base, and are sitting on a mountain of cash that lets them do whatever they want--buybacks, acquisitions, raising the dividend, or developing an Apple Car.

Just my opinion, they probably aren't undervalued but I don't see them as wildly overvalued either.

Trading at around 32 times expected 2022 earnings, and 28x projected 2023 earnings. That's pretty rich.

But I'm not selling, so I guess I don't think it's dangerously overvalued or anything. Then again, I hate selling ... thankfully. I'd have hated to have sold MSFT, COST, GOOGL, AMZN and many others just because they were perceived to have been overvalued.

I agree with you that AAPL is a heck of a company.
“A lot of the stuff that we believe in and that I’ve always believed in — it takes time. It’s not a quick fix. It’s not an instant-gratification thing. It’s a drip-by-drip process.”

-- Shaka Smart, in The Athletic, 10/13/21

DegenerateDish

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Re: Investing Thread
« Reply #1602 on: December 08, 2021, 10:28:45 AM »
I was looking to dump some money I had saved up for an upcoming vacation in early 2022, and bought AAPL about a month ago or so (bought it at $149 a share). I was just looking for something safe and make a few bucks, and knock on wood, its gone well as you guys have mentioned.

Hards_Alumni

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Re: Investing Thread
« Reply #1603 on: December 08, 2021, 12:17:27 PM »
Growth has picked up, they have a fanatical user base, and are sitting on a mountain of cash that lets them do whatever they want--buybacks, acquisitions, raising the dividend, or developing an Apple Car.

Just my opinion, they probably aren't undervalued but I don't see them as wildly overvalued either.

They've expanded deeply into the Chinese middle class.

Skatastrophy

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Re: Investing Thread
« Reply #1604 on: December 08, 2021, 12:18:28 PM »
I hold a lot of AAPL in my US total market index. I don't see a reason to go more overweight on a company that has the largest market cap in the world.

TSmith34

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Re: Investing Thread
« Reply #1605 on: December 08, 2021, 01:53:33 PM »
I can't disagree with that. Between my direct holdings and all the funds holding AAPL I have roughly a 4x weighting relative to a "standard" position. I am not buying more at the moment, but neither am I selling.

MuggsyB

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Re: Investing Thread
« Reply #1606 on: December 08, 2021, 02:23:25 PM »
I hold a lot of AAPL in my US total market index. I don't see a reason to go more overweight on a company that has the largest market cap in the world.

That's what I was told when I bought it 2.5 yrs ago.  It's only up 300% since I was told not to buy it.  :) I think we're all expecting an inflation correction but I'm holding onto it for another 20+ yrs. 

Heisenberg v2.0

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Re: Investing Thread
« Reply #1607 on: December 08, 2021, 03:59:06 PM »
I just read a really good article in the December addition of Commentary Magazine about the market.  It's from the guy who wrote Dow 36,000 years ago, James L. Glassman.  I would highly recommend it.  He wrote Dow 36,000 in 1999 and was pretty much ridiculed by everyone.  Whooops.

Keep in mind that he wrote in 1999 and said it would take 3-5 years to reach 36,000. It took ~22 years.

He not only wrote DJIA 36,000 in 1999 saying it would take three to five years, but he panicked out near the low in 2011

Why I Was Wrong About 'Dow 36,000'
The world has changed since 1999. U.S. economic standing is now declining, and we have to account for risks not only to commerce but to the global order.
By James K. Glassman
Updated Feb. 24, 2011 12:01 am ET

https://www.wsj.com/articles/SB10001424052748703584804576144683264748042

 I told readers to tilt their retirement portfolios strongly toward stocks—but with an extra large dollop of optimism because stocks at the time seemed undervalued.

I was wrong.


« Last Edit: December 08, 2021, 04:02:43 PM by Heisenberg v2.0 »
You asked if I was in the meth business or the money business.  Neither.  I'm in the empire business.

TSmith34

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Re: Investing Thread
« Reply #1608 on: December 09, 2021, 08:40:26 AM »
Another beat and raise from CVS.

I do think it is pretty much fully valued here after being up +38% YTD. Next catalyst will be restarting dividend increases either with the Q4 earning report or before the Q1 dividend declaration.
Bumped up FY2021 estimates, announced a $10B buy back program, and raised the dividend 10% today. Nice.

Forward PE is 11.6

MUBurrow

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Re: Investing Thread
« Reply #1609 on: December 10, 2021, 10:44:31 AM »
Anybody buying that PTON dip this morning? Sorry if this should have been posted in the What Are You Watching thread  ;D ;D

TSmith34

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Re: Investing Thread
« Reply #1610 on: December 10, 2021, 10:58:44 AM »
LOL, it dropped because of a scene in Sex in the City??? Seems like a good candidate for a bounce tomorrow, if you are looking for a short-term trade.

Longer term, they could be a candidate to be bought out. Lacking a buyout, however, I think investors are in for a bumpy ride. <rimshot>

mikekinsellaMVP

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Re: Investing Thread
« Reply #1611 on: December 10, 2021, 02:51:49 PM »
Thanks for pointing that out.

Appreciate the commentary from you and tortuga on this.  I’m contemplating this as an alternative to my current “high-yield” savings (0.50%) and one-year CDs (best I’ve found is 0.40%).

Do you know if the three-month penalty is for the immediately preceding three months, or is it a 12-month average?  Under tortuga’s example of the rate dropping to zero in the spring, would I pay a penalty of $0 in the fall since the previous three months had no interest, or would I potentially pay 25% of the roughly 3.5% I earned over the previous year?

MU82

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Re: Investing Thread
« Reply #1612 on: December 10, 2021, 03:22:20 PM »
Appreciate the commentary from you and tortuga on this.  I’m contemplating this as an alternative to my current “high-yield” savings (0.50%) and one-year CDs (best I’ve found is 0.40%).

Do you know if the three-month penalty is for the immediately preceding three months, or is it a 12-month average?  Under tortuga’s example of the rate dropping to zero in the spring, would I pay a penalty of $0 in the fall since the previous three months had no interest, or would I potentially pay 25% of the roughly 3.5% I earned over the previous year?

From the Treasury Direct site:

"If you cash an I bond before it is five years old, you will lose the last three months of interest."

https://www.treasurydirect.gov/indiv/research/indepth/ibonds/res_ibonds_iredeem.htm

There's a lot of other stuff there in an FAQ format you might find useful. I wish you good fortune!
“A lot of the stuff that we believe in and that I’ve always believed in — it takes time. It’s not a quick fix. It’s not an instant-gratification thing. It’s a drip-by-drip process.”

-- Shaka Smart, in The Athletic, 10/13/21

Hards_Alumni

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Re: Investing Thread
« Reply #1613 on: December 10, 2021, 05:47:11 PM »
Appreciate the commentary from you and tortuga on this.  I’m contemplating this as an alternative to my current “high-yield” savings (0.50%) and one-year CDs (best I’ve found is 0.40%).

Do you know if the three-month penalty is for the immediately preceding three months, or is it a 12-month average?  Under tortuga’s example of the rate dropping to zero in the spring, would I pay a penalty of $0 in the fall since the previous three months had no interest, or would I potentially pay 25% of the roughly 3.5% I earned over the previous year?


yeah, get your cash out of anything that isn't making you 5-7%.  You won't even be keeping up with inflation at that level.

Lennys Tap

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Re: Investing Thread
« Reply #1614 on: December 10, 2021, 06:39:14 PM »
Anybody buying that PTON dip this morning? Sorry if this should have been posted in the What Are You Watching thread  ;D ;D

Peloton was trading at 170 less than a year ago and just under 100 a month and a half ago. Closed today at 38.51 today. So the stock is down almost 80% in a year and 58% in less than 2 months.

Lots of opportunities to buy dips in this dog and like all dogs it will have its day - but who knows where the bottom is?

MU82

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Re: Investing Thread
« Reply #1615 on: December 21, 2021, 08:14:36 AM »
Is the stock market ready to have a major pullback, correction or even crash in 2022? This from the NYT:

Yes. Investors’ expectations for high growth next year look increasingly misguided in light of Omicron and lower government spending. Analysts currently expect the S&P 500’s profits to jump nearly 9 percent, or over twice as fast as the broader economy, which may not be possible given the current rate of inflation. When companies start to lower earnings targets — or miss them — the markets will surely follow.

No. Stock market collapses are extremely rare without recessions, and there’s no sign that one is in store for 2022. While some recent job growth data has been disappointing, an increasing number of Americans are still finding new positions. And consumer spending continues to beat expectations.

Maybe? Stocks may not fall drastically, but they may not continue to surge either. This viewpoint has supporters: Savita Subramanian, Bank of America’s head of U.S. equity strategy, predicts that the S&P 500 will rise less than 1 percent next year, and said the market’s biggest problem was “lofty expectations.”


I'll go with "maybe-ish"!
“A lot of the stuff that we believe in and that I’ve always believed in — it takes time. It’s not a quick fix. It’s not an instant-gratification thing. It’s a drip-by-drip process.”

-- Shaka Smart, in The Athletic, 10/13/21

Hards_Alumni

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Re: Investing Thread
« Reply #1616 on: December 30, 2021, 12:23:52 PM »
It's been pretty fun to go through our collective predictions from the last year.

 

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