Investing Thread

[Not A Serious Person]

Buy ARKK and get a free Peleton

[TSmith34, Inc.]

Buy ARKK and get a free Peleton

I'll take "Things That Happen to Go-Go Momentum Funds" for $1000, Alex

[MU82]

The most "exciting" kinds of stocks I buy are AMZN, GOOGL, FB, MSFT and AAPL. I mostly buy blue-chip, dividend-growing companies. So it's interesting hearing these growthier or "speccier" names y'all are discussing.

Market well off today's low. I'll be waiting for TSmith to ring the bell to let me know when we've actually hit a bottom!

[Not A Serious Person]

The most "exciting" kinds of stocks I buy are AMZN, GOOGL, FB, MSFT and AAPL. I mostly buy blue-chip, dividend-growing companies. So it's interesting hearing these growthier or "speccier" names y'all are discussing.

Market well off today's low. I'll be waiting for TSmith to ring the bell to let me know when we've actually hit a bottom!

When that bell rings ... I'm going long Dogecoin!

[MU82]

Yeah, safe to say that crypto's not gonna be for me. I know folks who have made good money trading it, but my gut can't handle that kind of thing.

[TSmith34, Inc.]

Market well off today's low. I'll be waiting for TSmith to ring the bell to let me know when we've actually hit a bottom!

Talk about setting yourself up for disappointment...

[rocket surgeon]

Buy ARKK and get a free Peleton

does the peleton come with a free AED and some nitroglycerin tabs

[jficke13]

does the peleton come with a free AED and some nitroglycerin tabs

Didn't peg you for a Sex and the City fan. Who knew?

[DegenerateDish]

$FB & $SPOT are getting taken to the woodshed and obliterated after hours, yikes.

[JWags85]

Judging by tech lately, give it a day or two and buy.  People were loading up on PYPL today

[MU82]

Judging by tech lately, give it a day or two and buy.  People were loading up on PYPL today

Who was loading up on PYPL today? Stock got murdered, down 25%. Selling ruled the day. It's even down another 2% after hours.

$FB & $SPOT are getting taken to the woodshed and obliterated after hours, yikes.

No interest in SPOT but I do have a smallish FB position. Trying to decide if I want to buy on this ... because that was not a very good earnings report.

[JWags85]

Who was loading up on PYPL today? Stock got murdered, down 25%. Selling ruled the day. It's even down another 2% after hours.

Lot of longer term calls being snatch up.  Often front runs bigger positions by funds or an activist.  Would not be shocked to see an Icahn type insert themselves into the stock in the next few weeks

[MU82]

Lot of longer term calls being snatch up.  Often front runs bigger positions by funds or an activist.  Would not be shocked to see an Icahn type insert themselves into the stock in the next few weeks

Interesting.

Lotsa poor retail-investing saps were selling today.

[JWags85]

Once again, this moronic market ignores all sorts of actual fundamental shakiness (inflation, growth numbers, etc...) but then the markets freaks out and sheds tons of points due to macro black swans and the declines occur and people pretend its cause of those fundamentals 

[Hards Alumni]

Once again, this moronic market ignores all sorts of actual fundamental shakiness (inflation, growth numbers, etc...) but then the markets freaks out and sheds tons of points due to macro black swans and the declines occur and people pretend its cause of those fundamentals 

It's been a casino for a long time.

[4everwarriors]

Inflation, aina?

[Skatastrophy]

Inflation, aina?

Supply push inflation though.

[jesmu84]

Inflation, aina?

Yup. Thanks to decisions by the fed and some of the pandemic bills, the stock market has been artificially inflated for a while.

[Badgerhater]

I invest in things for the long haul that make sense to me.

Energy, pipeline and railroad stocks do well in times of rising energy costs.

[TSmith34, Inc.]

U.S. Accuses Zero Hedge of Spreading Russian Propaganda
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-02-15/us-accuses-financial-website-of-spreading-russian-propaganda

Washington (AP) -- U.S. intelligence officials on Tuesday accused a conservative financial news website with a significant American readership of amplifying Kremlin propaganda and alleged five media outlets targeting Ukrainians have taken direction from Russian spies.

The officials said Zero Hedge, which has 1.2 million Twitter followers, published articles created by Moscow-controlled media that were then shared by outlets and people unaware of their nexus to Russian intelligence.

The officials did not say whether they thought Zero Hedge knew of any links to spy agencies and did not allege direct links between the website and Russia.

In recent months, Zero Hedge has published numerous articles that accused the U.S. of fomenting panic about Ukraine, which now faces the possibility of an invasion by more than 130,000 Russian troops massed on several sides of the country. Some of those articles are listed as being written by people affiliated with the Strategic Culture Foundation.

Recent articles listed as authored by the foundation and published by Zero Hedge include the headlines: "NATO Sliding Towards War Against Russia In Ukraine,” “Americans Need A Conspiracy Theory They Can All Agree On" and “Theater Of Absurd... Pentagon Demands Russia Explain Troops On Russian Soil."

[TSmith34, Inc.]

"Cathie Wood’s flagship fund Ark Innovation ETF (ARKK) is down 30% year-to-date and is more wildly volatile than practically any fund on the market. So when Wood was invited onto CNBC’s Halftime Report, she took it as an opportunity to defend the fund and its deflated price, now down to $68.80 from its peak of $155 a year ago.

“We’ve had a significant decline,” Wood said, adding "we do believe innovation is in the bargain basement territory." She noted that while her ETF wasn't performing at its best, her stocks were still "way undervalued" and the recent fund loss was only temporary. Then Zoom gave her 10 minutes to wrap up the interview as the call's 40 free minutes were almost up.

Having Zoom ask if she were "Running out of time?" was probably not a good look for Wood, who has been rapidly buying up shares in Zoom and other tech companies that have dipped since their pandemic heights. Zoom, along with Wood's other big tech holdings in Teladoc Health, Roku, and Roblox, are all down between 20% and 40% year-to-date as fears of rising interest and inflation rates have depressed tech shares."

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/cathie-wood-went-tv-defend-124127728.html

[MU82]

"Cathie Wood’s flagship fund Ark Innovation ETF (ARKK) is down 30% year-to-date and is more wildly volatile than practically any fund on the market. So when Wood was invited onto CNBC’s Halftime Report, she took it as an opportunity to defend the fund and its deflated price, now down to $68.80 from its peak of $155 a year ago.

“We’ve had a significant decline,” Wood said, adding "we do believe innovation is in the bargain basement territory." She noted that while her ETF wasn't performing at its best, her stocks were still "way undervalued" and the recent fund loss was only temporary. Then Zoom gave her 10 minutes to wrap up the interview as the call's 40 free minutes were almost up.

Having Zoom ask if she were "Running out of time?" was probably not a good look for Wood, who has been rapidly buying up shares in Zoom and other tech companies that have dipped since their pandemic heights. Zoom, along with Wood's other big tech holdings in Teladoc Health, Roku, and Roblox, are all down between 20% and 40% year-to-date as fears of rising interest and inflation rates have depressed tech shares."

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/cathie-wood-went-tv-defend-124127728.html

Salesperson bordering on con artist.

[JWags85]

Salesperson bordering on con artist.

So any fund manager who overstays their welcome, especially a momentum trader, in a sector/position and/or loses sight of the overall market dynamics is a "con artist"?  Come on man.

She made outsized returns cause she was super long in momentum/growth stocks during a historic bull run up/bounce.  She's too stubborn to realize the market has changed and she/her positions are in trouble so she's talking up her book.  Its pure salesmanship.  She's not a CEO of a company lying about products and their developments.  Nor is she hiding anything or selling snake oil.  There is no con, what she supposed to say?  I screwed up and these positions are going to be even more underwater cause our size is too big to unload quickly without tanking them?

[MU82]

"ARKG, that's the one that's really going to do well this year. 20% gain is the floor."

-- Cathie Wood in early 2021.

ARKG has only lost 57% since then, as she and her ill-equipped team have scurried in and out of one investment after another.

Even after the Fed finally came around and stopped calling inflation "transitory," she still was saying it was no big deal -- and that her ETFs were just the solution!

A couple of weeks ago, she was saying the real bubble was in value stocks -- not in the growth names that she has whiffed on worse than Rob Deer whiffed on curveballs At least Rob Deer hit a home run more than once every year or two.

Sure, maybe she's simply a fast-talking salesperson who has been exposed as a one-trick pony when it comes to stock-picking. (This just in: Another of her faves, ROKU, is down a mere 25.5% today.)

A con is defined as "a swindle in which the victim is persuaded to trust the swindler in some way." I'm guessing many investors would say that applies to Cathie Wood. But because I respect you, Wags, I'll say maybe "con" was too strong a word for me to have used. How about "huckster"?

I'll let Morningstar take us home ...

Wood’s reliance on her instincts to construct the portfolio is a liability. This is a high-risk, benchmark-agnostic portfolio that invests across technology platforms the team thinks will revolutionize how sectors across the globe operate. The firm favors companies that are often unprofitable, highly volatile, and could plummet in tandem. Rather than gauge the portfolio’s aggregate risk exposures and simulate their effects during a variety of market conditions, the firm uses its past as a guide to the future and views risk almost exclusively through the lens of its bottom-up research. The fund lacks well-defined risk controls, which are now more important than ever. As its asset base has swelled … the fund has become less liquid and more vulnerable to severe losses.

… Many of its analysts have come and gone, and most of the nine remaining lack deep industry experience. … ARK’s untested analysts, go-with-your-gut risk-management approach, and bloated asset base raise doubts ...

[JWags85]

Listen, I think Cathie Wood is absolutely a one trick pony.  I think it was pretty clear the Emperor had no clothes the minute the market cooled off a bit and ARKK got hammered.  Not to mention her ties to the Archegos debacle.  But I guess I just don't see it as a swindle.  She's not a Bernie Madoff book cooker.  She's not an investment advisor who takes peoples funds, says "trust me" and the money disappears.  She's just a pretty mediocre stock picker who got lucky when a lot of other retail amateurs did too.  I genuinely thinks she believes in her picks and her valuations.  I mean look at that Morningstar summation.  Thats "this fund is a bunch of inexperienced idiots going off their gut" not "this is some shady business propped up by slick snake oil sales"

But salesmanship is a huge part of the fund game.  There are plenty of fund managers who make great gains year after year that you've never heard of, cause establishing a track record takes years and years, if you can't spin those first few years as signs of greatness to come.

If I develop a software product based on where I think a certain market in say, billing and invoicing, is going and I bring it to market and sell people on it.  Lots of people buy it.  But after a couple years, turns out it isn't all that great, market goes in a different direction, my competitors start to crush me, but I still believe in my product and keep trying to sell it and my belief.  Am I con man or a huckster?  No, I'm just wrong and probably a little delusional.  Thats Cathie Wood, except the little is A LOT.