Investing Thread

[jesmu84]

The stock market is a demonstration of the emotional state of the rich

[ZiggysFryBoy]

The stock market is a demonstration of the emotional state of the rich

YouTube video source?

[Lennys Tap]

The stock market is a demonstration of the emotional state of the rich

What are the polls that show 61% of democrats, 74% of independents and 91% of republicans think we are presently in a recession a demonstration of?

[jesmu84]

YouTube video source?

🤡🤡

[Hards Alumni]

What are the polls that show 61% of democrats, 74% of independents and 91% of republicans think we are presently in a recession a demonstration of?

Idiocy, for one.

[tower912]

If I was the type who tried to time the market, I would be gearing up to grab every share I can get my hands on.

2.6% growth in the 3rd quarter.   There have been times that has been treated as a huge victory.   Not today.   Doesn't fit the current zeitgeist or narrative.   Just another ignored fact.

[rocky_warrior]

What are the polls that show 61% of democrats, 74% of independents and 91% of republicans think we are presently in a recession a demonstration of?

Around 63% of Americans surveyed could not identify the correct definition of a recession.  Lol.

[Uncle Rico]

Around 63% of Americans surveyed could not identify the correct definition of a recession.  Lol.

97% of Americans would fail a basic civics test

[Lennys Tap]

97% of Americans would fail a basic civics test

Not true, though American children are much worse at reading, writing and adding and subtracting at appropriate grade levels than they were two years ago.

[Hards Alumni]

Not true, though American children are much worse at reading, writing and adding and subtracting at appropriate grade levels than they were two years ago.

Such an angry old man.

[Uncle Rico]

Not true, though American children are much worse at reading, writing and adding and subtracting at appropriate grade levels than they were two years ago.

I know.  America’s response to the pandemic was a disaster.  Sadly, the pandemic readiness plan that was put in place by W was scrapped and we groped around blindly.  Hopefully, we learned our lesson. 

[Lennys Tap]

Such an angry old man.

Actually very happy, though I’m am sad for what our schoolchildren lost. You’re not? Cruel.

[Skatastrophy]

Actually very happy, though I’m am sad for what our schoolchildren lost. You’re not? Cruel.

This is super lazy trolling

[JWags85]

If I was the type who tried to time the market, I would be gearing up to grab every share I can get my hands on.

2.6% growth in the 3rd quarter.   There have been times that has been treated as a huge victory.   Not today.   Doesn't fit the current zeitgeist or narrative.   Just another ignored fact.

Its never wise to look at economic numbers, such as GDP growth, in a vacuum.  The growth and associated numbers is still wildly volatile.  The number was largely driven by international trade, which cause swing all over the place quarter to quarter.  Lot of private sector demand dried up and there are plenty of other slowing growth metrics.  Headlines are great for intraday market spikes, but not substantive sea changes.

I'm not saying we are in a recession or sounding the dark times ahead alarm, but pointing to a GDP number in the absolute and then claiming "narrative" or something, when its not applauded roundly, is misguided.  Consumer spending numbers were good, but housing looked bleak and plenty of other underlying metrics don't look rosy.

[tower912]

I agree jwags.   However, you have to admit that in times past, a quarter million new jobs per month and a 2.6% growth quarter would be greeted with hosannas.

Yup, there is still Putin's war.
And chip shortages.
And supply chain issues.
And China's economy.
And OPEC (see Putin's war)
And the labor shortage causing upward pressure on salaries and therefore prices.
And the 7.7% average wage jump in the third quarter.

Holy Crap.  I forgot to mention the ongoing COVID struggles.    Wow.

The markets hate uncertainty and volatility.

Which is why, I repeat, if I was one who timed the market, I would be gearing up to buy whatever I could get my hands on.

[JWags85]

I agree jwags.   However, you have to admit that in times past, a quarter million new jobs per month and a 2.6% growth quarter would be greeted with hosannas.

Yup, there is still Putin's war.
And chip shortages.
And supply chain issues.
And China's economy.
And OPEC (see Putin's war)
And the labor shortage causing upward pressure on salaries and therefore prices.
And the 7.7% average wage jump in the third quarter.

Holy Crap.  I forgot to mention the ongoing COVID struggles.    Wow.

The markets hate uncertainty and volatility.

Which is why, I repeat, if I was one who timed the market, I would be gearing up to buy whatever I could get my hands on.

See I actually still disagree with you.  If I'm reading you right, you're still saying "things are good and looking up because we had good GDP growth even with this list of challenges".  And I fundamentally disagree cause as I mentioned, you can have a lot of underlying economic factors, indicators, and trend signals that look really problematic and concerning even with a 2.6% quarterly growth.

And I also disagree that it would normally "always" be met with hosannas.  Cause as I mentioned, the international trade component.  I can absolutely recall GDP numbers in a quarter that swung from a negative to a positive 2-3% that weren't celebrated cause it didn't tell the whole story.  And some of those times had negative quarters right after.  Again, I'm not calling for SPX 1500 or something.  But I also don't think we've seen a low put in for the market over the next 6-12 months.

[MU82]

There's been a "good news is bad news" thing going on.

For example, the government reported this week that companies posted more job openings in September than in August. There are now 1.9 available jobs for each unemployed worker, an unusually large supply. Anybody who wants a job can get a job -- it might not be a job in their chosen profession, but they can be employed if they want to be employed, and most of the open jobs pay considerably more than similar jobs did both last year and before the pandemic.

However, the strong job market generally is seen to contributing to inflation, making it hard for the Fed to stop raising rates. So even as anybody who wants a job can have a job, and wages are higher, those wages are not high enough to keep up with inflation and higher borrowing costs.

If we are in recession, as some economists believe we are, the employment situation makes it one of the strangest recessions ever. If we aren't yet in recession but one is coming in 2023, as many economists think, it's a bizarre lead-up.

The market can only "price in" so much of this kind of thing. You get a fourth straight .75% hike to the Fed rates, coupled with statements like, "We still have some ways to go," and the market reacts as it did yesterday afternoon despite "good" employment information and generally good corporate earnings reports.

[Hards Alumni]

Actually very happy, though I’m am sad for what our schoolchildren lost. You’re not? Cruel.

Your recent post history shows otherwise.

[The Hippie Satan of Hyperbole]

This is super lazy trolling thinking

FIFY

[Golden Avalanche]

Not true, though American children are much worse at reading, writing and adding and subtracting at appropriate grade levels than they were two years ago.

So the time period in which parents were directly responsible for the reading, writing, adding and subtracting education their child received was a failure?

I'm shocked.

[forgetful]

There's been a "good news is bad news" thing going on.

For example, the government reported this week that companies posted more job openings in September than in August. There are now 1.9 available jobs for each unemployed worker, an unusually large supply. Anybody who wants a job can get a job -- it might not be a job in their chosen profession, but they can be employed if they want to be employed, and most of the open jobs pay considerably more than similar jobs did both last year and before the pandemic.

However, the strong job market generally is seen to contributing to inflation, making it hard for the Fed to stop raising rates. So even as anybody who wants a job can have a job, and wages are higher, those wages are not high enough to keep up with inflation and higher borrowing costs.

If we are in recession, as some economists believe we are, the employment situation makes it one of the strangest recessions ever. If we aren't yet in recession but one is coming in 2023, as many economists think, it's a bizarre lead-up.

The market can only "price in" so much of this kind of thing. You get a fourth straight .75% hike to the Fed rates, coupled with statements like, "We still have some ways to go," and the market reacts as it did yesterday afternoon despite "good" employment information and generally good corporate earnings reports.

I can't help but look at it and see:

"The economy has become too good, so the people that are poor, aren't poor enough anymore. We need to fix the economy to make sure they are plenty poor again".

The cause of inflation was largely the FED pumping money into the economy to benefit the upper classes, for years and years. The moment some economic relief was pumped into the middle and lower classes, in conjunction with a global supply chain issue, they determined they needed to slam the breaks on the economy, by raising interest rates, which disproportionately impacts the middle and lower classes.

[JWags85]

I can't help but look at it and see:

"The economy has become too good, so the people that are poor, aren't poor enough anymore. We need to fix the economy to make sure they are plenty poor again".

The cause of inflation was largely the FED pumping money into the economy to benefit the upper classes, for years and years. The moment some economic relief was pumped into the middle and lower classes, in conjunction with a global supply chain issue, they determined they needed to slam the breaks on the economy, by raising interest rates, which disproportionately impacts the middle and lower classes.

Forgetful...You're a smart guy, but are you f'ing serious?  You really think everything is superb, domestically and globally, across all economic categories and this is just some conspiracy to crush the poor?  Come the hell on.  I'm not excusing a hapless Fed, but there is some GNARLY structural issues with the economy.  Its not some money grubbing nonsense.  But sure, lets get to 8-10% inflation that won't harm the lower classes at all!

[MUBurrow]

I'm not excusing a hapless Fed, but there is some GNARLY structural issues with the economy.  Its not some money grubbing nonsense.  But sure, lets get to 8-10% inflation that won't harm the lower classes at all!

I don't disagree that its significantly more complicated than forgetful described.  However, I also agree with him that its a poor reflection on our economic status quo that when labor gets the upper hand on capital for just a couple of years, inflation shoots through the roof. 

IMO, it's because we are a frog in a pot of boiling water with respect to how heavily skewed our economic and tax policy is toward capital when not in crisis.  Our economy is so skewed toward freeing up capital for investment that any increase on labor's balance sheet causes inflation to take off.  Thats a rigged game.

[Goose]

Wags

I saw last week that middle class America had a once in lifetime increase in wealth over the past two years. I think lower and middle class America (my family) was given a golden ticket by the Fed. Wealthy, and especially very wealthy people always have an advantage and that is life. I believe the Fed and Treasury worked very hard to help the lower and middle class since the start of the pandemic. Crazy stock market and housing helped many Americans feel a lot wealthier than they did pre-pandemic. I still believe the wealth effect is a major reason for the inflation we are experiencing today.

[JWags85]

I don't disagree that its significantly more complicated than forgetful described.  However, I also agree with him that its a poor reflection on our economic status quo that when labor gets the upper hand on capital for just a couple of years, inflation shoots through the roof. 

IMO, it's because we are a frog in a pot of boiling water with respect to how heavily skewed our economic and tax policy is toward capital when not in crisis.  Our economy is so skewed toward freeing up capital for investment that any increase on labor's balance sheet causes inflation to take off.  Thats a rigged game.

I find that line of thinking to be pretty reasonable.  I'm far from someone who will excuse away poor policy and Fed strategy over the years.  I think governments (the US as much as anyone) are incredibly slow to react and adjust, so setting up the country for capital investment and growth in a way that was great 50 years ago but not so much today, takes far too long to correct.

I just can't rationalize some mentality of addressing current rampant inflation (or many other burgeoning economic issues which too many people aren't aware of or ignore as stated in previous posts) is some plot to further cut the legs out from the workers.  Thats just some armchair socialist conspiracy theory wet dream.