Oso planning to go pro
Rough day for $PENN (on a couple different levels if you’re digging around on Twitter).$DKNG probably priced to miss, but the bottom could fall out tomorrow there. If you like gambling stocks and don’t own any, the time to buy is near.
Cloudflare with a beat and raise. I really enjoyed Matt Prince's Halloween tweet - https://twitter.com/eastdakota/status/1455034553152589834
Would you buy more at this price?I feel like I missed on SNOW, wanted it to fall under $200 and it got away from me. Cloudflare still a buy at the current price?
Edit: My current/next long-shot is SofiSofi is a neo-bank, which is boring. What's interesting to me is that they acquired a tech company Galileo in 2019 and have invested heavily in turning Galileo from an on-premise offering into a cloud offering over the past ~year. Galileo is run at arms length, and is the back-end offering that enables Sofi, Robinhood, Chime, Verizon, etc to offer banking and card services without the operational headache. It's basically a neo-bank in a box. Galileo's revenue (on Sofi's SEC filings it shows up as 'technology services') has been doubling YoY, and the heavy investment that has been sucking the profits out of that segment are nearing an end. I'm bullish on Galileo and on Sofi's ability to funnel their lending profits into more tech offerings like this. We'll see. I've been averaging down my basis on Sofi since $25 and I'm finally in the green. Maybe it'll turn into something. Earnings is on the 10th so we'll see if they've made progress.
My initial cost basis is ~$17.50, but I bought more during the pullback at the end of September at $117.5.I'm holding, but at this point it's a concentration risk for me to pile in any more cash.If I didn't have a NET position I'd take one right now. NET was at $220 pre-market and is hanging around $203 right now. Despite the ridiculous multiple it's trading at, they are growing very quickly. They add new large customers at an astonishing rate, and their net retention rate is ~120% which is mind boggling. Really sticky platform offering infrastructure, security, and networking as a service that's so simple that even I can use it for my business despite having not really being an engineer anymore for ~10 years.
Thanks for the response, I may nibble. However, very SNOW-like, seems like it is priced for perfection and beyond.Quite the chart pattern today.
Sector rotation, whatchu gonna do
I've had a few people at work pimping Nerdwallet the past few days. Any thoughts on their potential?
A friend and I are considering this one out of all of the announced IPOs. Here's my quick pseudo-informed takeBull case - Nerdwallet has the hard thing nailed: SEO and brand building. They are the funnel by which most Gen Z and Millenials make their personal/biz banking, credit card, and SMB loan decisions... so they have customer acquisition solved. Additionally, Nerdwallet is a major funnel for a lot of online brokers (Lendio, Fundera, Fundbox), banks, and card companies. Nerdwallet's moat is the solid middleman position that they have. They can leverage this position for better affiliate/broker fees, or to launch their own neo-bank products directly. The consumer finance market is enormous, and Nerdwallet's solid content strategy has created a very focused inbound funnel which is very valuable. Bear case - Consumer/SMB finance is a busy market with a lot of players. Nerdwallet can become another broker in that space? Nerdwallet pushing to become a broker/bank/lender themselves will detract from their current value prop which is "trusted 3rd party helping consumers navigate the world of consumer finance." Nerdwallet is also far too dependent on Papa Google's SEO rankings. If Google deranks them, what does their funnel look like? Just ad spend? You can't crutch a consumer funnel with a sales team so they'd be up a creek as far as their operating budget goes.Funny point on my bear case - I was googling around and Nerdwallet acquired Fundera (SMB loan marketplace), so I guess they're going the broker route first to try to keep their credibility with the public
Ty for your knowledge. I like the concept but do you know if there have been similar financial apps and how they have generally done? They certainly appear to be organized and fairly comprehensive.
I took a small-ish position in NRDS last week at a $24 basis. If it drops below $22 I'll buy more.This is pure speculation that they can monetize their massive funnel.
I think that's a good risk. I mean, they wouldn't be the first tech company to go public with a large valuation and tons of "potential" but a profit strategy like the Underpants Gnomes.Step 1: Get underpants (users)Step 2: ????Step 3: PROFITTheir path to monetization is easier than a lot of other freeware, but its such a crowded space. We shall see.Given Powell's renewal today, it should likely be a boon for a lot of the financial names. NRDS probably rises with the tide.
Should I buy when it drops to about $15?
I've been averaging down, and I've bought as much as I intend to. My last buy was just below $15. Their revenue doesn't really support their valuation, so it's a bet on future growth. If I didn't already have such a large position I'd be picking up NET right now.Big oof week in the market if you like growth companies. I just blew through my fun money buying stocks that have taken a hit, so the market will probably tank next week. Fair warning :p
You'll be alright. You are a shrewd long-term investor and will manage the storms along the way.
Crazy end to a crazy week. Did a little nibbling the last few days: FB, V, MA, MRK, RTX, GOOGL, a few others.
Buy when there's blood in the streets