Investing Thread

[Skatastrophy]

The Dow just topped 40K.  Should I cash out and find some ballers for MU moving forward? 

Muggsy's NIL Fund has a nice ring to it

[MU82]

The Dow just topped 40K.  Should I cash out and find some ballers for MU moving forward?

Cash out and send the $$$ to me. I'll invest it for you. Yep.

[Pakuni]

RIP to the real-life Gordon Gekko.

https://www.nbcnews.com/business/business-news/ivan-boesky-inspiration-wall-street-villain-gordon-gekko-dies-87-rcna153127

[rocky_warrior]

Of course Nvidia beat (but I've only got them in index funds).

But, wanted to link a couple calculators that I like to play with, inspired by Goose's question in the economy thread.  The first will give you a S&P (historical) rate of return over a set # of years.  And then you can use that rate with the second calculator to approximate how much you missed out by not just dumping extra $ into a S&P fund over the years.  lol

https://ofdollarsanddata.com/sp500-calculator/
https://www.investor.gov/financial-tools-calculators/calculators/compound-interest-calculator

[MU82]

This article had some interesting data about stock-market seasonality ups and downs:

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4695832-jp-morgan-the-bank-you-want-to-own-for-the-next-six-months-and-maybe-forever?mailingid=35511632&messageid=2800&serial=35511632.20669&utm_campaign=rta-stock-article&utm_medium=email&utm_source=seeking_alpha&utm_term=35511632.20669

Specifically, it shows how "Sell in May and go away" is a dopey strategy, and how July has been a surprisingly strong month for the market.

[SoCalEagle]

Of course Nvidia beat (but I've only got them in index funds).

But, wanted to link a couple calculators that I like to play with, inspired by Goose's question in the economy thread.  The first will give you a S&P (historical) rate of return over a set # of years.  And then you can use that rate with the second calculator to approximate how much you missed out by not just dumping extra $ into a S&P fund over the years.  lol

https://ofdollarsanddata.com/sp500-calculator/
https://www.investor.gov/financial-tools-calculators/calculators/compound-interest-calculator

I contemplated buying Nvidia last September, but I thought it was too expensive at over $400 per share. Shows you what I know about stock picking. 

[Skatastrophy]

I contemplated buying Nvidia last September, but I thought it was too expensive at over $400 per share. Shows you what I know about stock picking. 

Yep, but I own a load of ITOT (the Fidelity/iShares verstion of VTI), which has just over 5% of its holdings in NVDA. Indexing makes me feel better about my blind spots.

[SoCalEagle]

Skat, couldn't agree more.  Indexing (mostly VTI) is my primary method of investing.  Can't argue with the results since March 9, 2009.  Elevator going up!!!

[rocket surgeon]

I contemplated buying Nvidia last September, but I thought it was too expensive at over $400 per share. Shows you what I know about stock picking.

curious why you didn't nibble in October 2022 when it was $120 ?  or february-march 2023 when it was in low to mid $200's ?

I owned nvda way back in 2013/14 when it was $4-6/sh not really knowing much about what I had.  I got bored with it trading up to $7/8 forever, i did some "cleaning up" of the portfolio.  when I saw that it had started moving up $30-40-50-60-then it hit $300's, I was literally sick to my stomach so I compartmentalized and forgot about as I felt it had gotten beyond my reach at the time and heck, how much further could it grow?

    as I learned more about the company, having the chance to buy some sub $200's after it dropped off, I was not going to let that get away from me again and started buying all the way up thru $400's.

between nvda, meta, msft, amd, tsm, ge and ccj, my portfolio jumped like no other

[MuggsyB]

curious why you didn't nibble in October 2022 when it was $120 ?  or february-march 2023 when it was in low to mid $200's ?

I owned nvda way back in 2013/14 when it was $4-6/sh not really knowing much about what I had.  I got bored with it trading up to $7/8 forever, i did some "cleaning up" of the portfolio.  when I saw that it had started moving up $30-40-50-60-then it hit $300's, I was literally sick to my stomach so I compartmentalized and forgot about as I felt it had gotten beyond my reach at the time and heck, how much further could it grow?

    as I learned more about the company, having the chance to buy some sub $200's after it dropped off, I was not going to let that get away from me again and started buying all the way up thru $400's.

between nvda, meta, msft, amd, tsm, ge and ccj, my portfolio jumped like no other

🚀,

Unload your portfolio and find some MU ballers for the next few decades. 

[rocket surgeon]

🚀,

Unload your portfolio and find some MU ballers for the next few decades. 

gotta take care of my number one charity first muggs

[SoCalEagle]

curious why you didn't nibble in October 2022 when it was $120 ?  or february-march 2023 when it was in low to mid $200's ?

I owned nvda way back in 2013/14 when it was $4-6/sh not really knowing much about what I had.  I got bored with it trading up to $7/8 forever, i did some "cleaning up" of the portfolio.  when I saw that it had started moving up $30-40-50-60-then it hit $300's, I was literally sick to my stomach so I compartmentalized and forgot about as I felt it had gotten beyond my reach at the time and heck, how much further could it grow?

    as I learned more about the company, having the chance to buy some sub $200's after it dropped off, I was not going to let that get away from me again and started buying all the way up thru $400's.

between nvda, meta, msft, amd, tsm, ge and ccj, my portfolio jumped like no other

Rocket, I didn't pull the trigger on Nvidia because I mostly focus on index investing.  I only own a few individual stocks and I have been very fortunate that they have done so well.  However, that means my stock purchases are far and few between.  My methodology has worked so far despite my pass on Nvidia.   

[rocket surgeon]

Rocket, I didn't pull the trigger on Nvidia because I mostly focus on index investing.  I only own a few individual stocks and I have been very fortunate that they have done so well.  However, that means my stock purchases are far and few between.  My methodology has worked so far despite my pass on Nvidia.   

I've always respected your opinions here sce, thank you, just wondering if I was missing something

[TSmith34, Inc.]

Fed rates having their effect? From Yahoo Finance:

"In early May, the April jobs report showed payroll additions came in weaker than thought while the unemployment rate unexpectedly ticked higher. A weaker-than-projected reading on retail sales in April followed this report, as did a decline in the initial estimate for first quarter economic growth, largely driven by lower consumption.

‌This has shifted the mood of the economic consensus from estimates chasing the data higher to one that's scaling back its levels of optimism.

‌"I am having trouble getting too excited about the economy," Renaissance Macro head of economic research Neil Dutta wrote in a note to clients on Monday. "Conditions are fine, but I would hardly describe the situation as consistent with a meaningful acceleration."

[MU82]

Fed rates having their effect? From Yahoo Finance:

"In early May, the April jobs report showed payroll additions came in weaker than thought while the unemployment rate unexpectedly ticked higher. A weaker-than-projected reading on retail sales in April followed this report, as did a decline in the initial estimate for first quarter economic growth, largely driven by lower consumption.

‌This has shifted the mood of the economic consensus from estimates chasing the data higher to one that's scaling back its levels of optimism.

‌"I am having trouble getting too excited about the economy," Renaissance Macro head of economic research Neil Dutta wrote in a note to clients on Monday. "Conditions are fine, but I would hardly describe the situation as consistent with a meaningful acceleration."

The funny thing is that Mr. Market actually looks at this lack of optimism as good news, because it makes it more likely that the Fed will cut rates.

[Goose]

82

Two questions:

1. When do you think the Fed lowers rates?
2. Do you think the market sells off or continues to go up after a cut?

[MU82]

82

Two questions:

1. When do you think the Fed lowers rates?
2. Do you think the market sells off or continues to go up after a cut?

1. I wish I knew. 6 months ago, I would have said they'd lower by May. Most who supposedly are experts on this stuff (I am not) still expect 1 or maybe 2 cuts this year. We'll see.

2. I believe there would be a strong rally, at least at first. Maybe after the enthusiasm fades and as folks realize much of the market is overvalued, there'd then be a retracing. Again, no expert. Just based on what I've read.

[MU82]

These early Tesla bulls are giving up on the stock

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/early-tesla-bulls-giving-stock-151426670.html?

NEW YORK (Reuters) — Some of Tesla's institutional shareholders are getting out, convinced that the electric carmaker's days of dizzying growth are in the rear-view mirror.

Ross Gerber, whose Los Angeles-based firm, Gerber Kawasaki Wealth & Investment Management, bought 500,000 shares more than a decade ago, has been selling steadily this year.

"I think the story is over, is the best way to say it," said Gerber, who has whittled his position down to around 300,000 shares.

Gerber's complaints range from Tesla's public relations department, which he believes receives insufficient funding, to what Gerber calls Musk's distractions by political and cultural issues.

"Over the last year and a half, Elon's personal quests based on the way that he sees the world have superseded the interests of Tesla and its shareholders," Gerber said.

The company's shares are down nearly 30% this year and have fallen by more than 50% since their 2021 high, wiping out some $600 billion in market value as CEO Elon Musk has struggled with fierce competition and falling sales.

Of the 18 mutual funds tracked by Morningstar that have held Tesla shares since 2019, 10 reduced their positions in the last quarter, with four slashing their stakes by 15% or more, Morningstar data showed. Only five added shares.

[Hards Alumni]

These early Tesla bulls are giving up on the stock

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/early-tesla-bulls-giving-stock-151426670.html?

NEW YORK (Reuters) — Some of Tesla's institutional shareholders are getting out, convinced that the electric carmaker's days of dizzying growth are in the rear-view mirror.

Ross Gerber, whose Los Angeles-based firm, Gerber Kawasaki Wealth & Investment Management, bought 500,000 shares more than a decade ago, has been selling steadily this year.

"I think the story is over, is the best way to say it," said Gerber, who has whittled his position down to around 300,000 shares.

Gerber's complaints range from Tesla's public relations department, which he believes receives insufficient funding, to what Gerber calls Musk's distractions by political and cultural issues.

"Over the last year and a half, Elon's personal quests based on the way that he sees the world have superseded the interests of Tesla and its shareholders," Gerber said.

The company's shares are down nearly 30% this year and have fallen by more than 50% since their 2021 high, wiping out some $600 billion in market value as CEO Elon Musk has struggled with fierce competition and falling sales.

Of the 18 mutual funds tracked by Morningstar that have held Tesla shares since 2019, 10 reduced their positions in the last quarter, with four slashing their stakes by 15% or more, Morningstar data showed. Only five added shares.

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/06/04/elon-musk-told-nvidia-to-ship-ai-chips-reserved-for-tesla-to-x-xai.html

Probably has something to do with this.

[Skatastrophy]

Too bad the Tesla board is toothless.

[tower912]

Too bad the Tesla board is toothless.

He needs a bigger bonus.

[Uncle Rico]

He needs a bigger bonus.

That would be fine.  Usually see that trickle down to the employees and consumers

[MU82]

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/06/04/elon-musk-told-nvidia-to-ship-ai-chips-reserved-for-tesla-to-x-xai.html

Probably has something to do with this.

Maybe a little, but some (perhaps most) of these large sells were made before that news became known.

[MU82]

Record highs for Nasdaq and S&P 500 today.

NVDA joins MSFT and AAPL as the only $3T stocks.

[jesmu84]

Should Keith Gill be in legal trouble for market manipulation?