The War in Ukraine

[tower912]

Mandatory conscription.

[Uncle Rico]

Mandatory conscription.

Has failed most Russian Tsar's through history.  Worked in WWII because the Motherland was invaded.  This isn't it

[The Sultan]

They are also calling for referendums in the occupied territories. These will of course be sham referendums, which will eventually be framed as an annexation of these territories into Russia with any attack being an attack on the motherland itself. Putin is betting that this will either rally Russians around the cause - or will give Ukraine pause to stop the war at this point. (My guess is that it does neither.)

[TSmith34, Inc.]

They are also calling for referendums in the occupied territories. These will of course be sham referendums, which will eventually be framed as an annexation of these territories into Russia with any attack being an attack on the motherland itself. Putin is betting that this will either rally Russians around the cause - or will give Ukraine pause to stop the war at this point. (My guess is that it does neither.)

They need to hold the fake referendums now because it seems increasingly likely they won't hold the territory for long.

https://twitter.com/TrentTelenko/status/1572309056026726402
"The various Russian ground units are melting under the pressure of captured Russian artillery shells that the fall of Kharkiv Oblast delivered to Ukraine, along with the railway rolling stock to move the captured shell stocks near the Donbass front lines.

The impressed Russian colonial militias and the Russian Army's most recent conscript & contract replacements are nearly untrained, so the Russian & Russian colonial infantry forces are s--t without 10-to-1 fire superiority."

[Pakuni]

Shiz is about to get wild. Russians know something.

Google searches for "how to leave Russia", and "mobilization" are through the roof in Russia right now.

Putin was supposed to make a special announcement tonight but has changed that to tomorrow.

And now it's been canceled altogether.

[WarriorFan]

Russia needs the referendums to officially annex the territories so they can claim - when Ukraine does anything in those areas, that NATO weapons are being used on Russian soil.  Thus far, whether true or not, Ukraine has not claimed responsibility for any of the bizarre explosions that have taken place in Crimea or at arms depots on the Russian side of the border.  Ukraine also committed to the US and Germany that NATO weapons would not be used against Russian targets inside Russia.  As a result, the annexation creates some more complexity than currently exists and will need to be formally rejected by NATO and the EU political organization for Ukraine to comfortably proceed to gain territory after the annexation.

[tower912]

And nuke threats.   How did anybody ever think Putin was the good guy?   

Please, if you did, explain the reasoning.

[Uncle Rico]

And nuke threats.   How did anybody ever think Putin was the good guy?   

Please, if you did, explain the reasoning.

Well......

[Jockey]

And nuke threats.   How did anybody ever think Putin was the good guy?   

Please, if you did, explain the reasoning.

Trump said it was so. He wouldn't lie.

[JWags85]

And nuke threats.   How did anybody ever think Putin was the good guy?   

Please, if you did, explain the reasoning.

Something something NATO is evil something something protecting their borders.

[The Sultan]

Also something about a laptop.

[Pakuni]

And nuke threats.   How did anybody ever think Putin was the good guy?   

Please, if you did, explain the reasoning.

Fox News, Monday through Friday, 7 p.m. Central Time.

[MU Fan in Connecticut]

And nuke threats.   How did anybody ever think Putin was the good guy?   

Please, if you did, explain the reasoning.

They are called Tankies.

[Hards Alumni]

They are called Tankies.

lol no.  Just no.

[Scoop Snoop]

About 1300 protestors arrested in Russian cities including Moscow. Let's hope the protests spread despite the crackdown.

Reports of one-way flights going for up to $16,000.

[Hards Alumni]

About 1300 protestors arrested in Russian cities including Moscow. Let's hope the protests spread despite the crackdown.

Reports of one-way flights going for up to $16,000.

The rich have fled, and now only the poor peasants remain.  And the government and culture has made them apathetic.

[Jockey]

The rich have fled, and now only the poor peasants remain.  And the government and culture and the vodka has made them apathetic.

Not meant as a joke...

[The Sultan]

IMO when you see places like India and China say "hey this isn't a good idea," and Turkey say "yeah, you got to end this and give back Crimea," you know you are cooked.

And Putin is cooked. I'd be very surprised if he is still in charge by year's end. Mobilizing reserves to fight in an unpopular war without the equipment to give them is a desperate move.

We can all name dumb foreign policy / military moves of the past. This may go down as one of the dumbest of all time.  Clearly the sanctions are working. While Russia may be able to sell their natural gas, they aren't able to buy anything of any value to help them here.

[TSmith34, Inc.]

Historically Russia was able to wear down and eventually beat invaders through sheer numbers (and a heavy dose of Russian winters). It is an entirely different proposition to send essentially untrained conscripts to fight in a foreign country against highly motivated, well-trained (now, thanks to the U.S.) forces defending their homes and family.

Cannon fodder doesn't begin to paint the picture of the horrific losses those conscripts are going to take.

[Scoop Snoop]

Historically Russia was able to wear down and eventually beat invaders through sheer numbers (and a heavy dose of Russian winters). It is an entirely different proposition to send essentially untrained conscripts to fight in a foreign country against highly motivated, well-trained (now, thanks to the U.S.) forces defending their homes and family.

Cannon fodder doesn't begin to paint the picture of the horrific losses those conscripts are going to take.

An old classic movie, Dr. Zhivago, has a scene in it of retreating Russian troops in WWI, badly beaten, meeting up with fresh troops heading to the front. The officers of the fresh troops order the retreating troops to turn around, but there is a mutiny during which the officers are killed and all the soldiers head back East.

The Tsar may have well been doomed anyway, but the losses in WWI set the stage for the Russian Revolution. I know it's quite a stretch but let's hope that somehow there is a 21st century version of the government being overthrown.

[Uncle Rico]

An old classic movie, Dr. Zhivago, has a scene in it of retreating Russian troops in WWI, badly beaten, meeting up with fresh troops heading to the front. The officers of the fresh troops order the retreating troops to turn around, but there is a mutiny during which the officers are killed and all the soldiers head back East.

The Tsar may have well been doomed anyway, but the losses in WWI set the stage for the Russian Revolution. I know it's quite a stretch but let's hope that somehow there is a 21st century version of the government being overthrown.

I don't think it's a stretch at all

[NCMUFan]

The question is: "Is it for something better?"

[Scoop Snoop]

The question is: "Is it for something better?"

Very fair question. No doubt things could get worse. Russian history is chock full of aggression and conquest, and Putin's reference to this taps into far too many Russians' psyche. It's as if their Viking forebearers from the 800's-the Rus-have passed on their bloodlust all the way into present day.

I'm hoping that maybe, just maybe the Russian people will choose to try a different route if they get the chance. It's very much a longshot. 

[Jockey]

An old classic movie, Dr. Zhivago, has a scene in it of retreating Russian troops in WWI, badly beaten, meeting up with fresh troops heading to the front. The officers of the fresh troops order the retreating troops to turn around, but there is a mutiny during which the officers are killed and all the soldiers head back East.

The Tsar may have well been doomed anyway, but the losses in WWI set the stage for the Russian Revolution. I know it's quite a stretch but let's hope that somehow there is a 21st century version of the government being overthrown.

I believe he will be ousted and when it happens there will be no revolution. Just another strongman will step in and it will be over in a day or two.

[WarriorFan]

The only guy who even thinks he has or can consolidate enough power to oust Putin is Kadyrov.
And that would be worse than Putin.

There is no Nelson Mandela waiting in a prison somewhere.