MUScoop
MUScoop => The Superbar => Topic started by: TSmith34, Inc. on March 28, 2022, 05:45:22 PM
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Opinion: Stop overestimating the Russian military and underestimating the Ukrainians
https://archive.ph/i1yIc
"One vignette from the fighting near Kyiv illustrates the Ukrainian advantage. “The Ukrainians have put up a drone video armed with thermal imaging,” writes a British war correspondent in New Line Magazine. “It’s so chilly out there that the Russian tank crews sit with their engines running through the night. As the Ukrainian drone hovers over the woods in the blackness, it picks out the Russian tanks hiding in the cold. Each Russian exhaust spills its presence, white on black. Then Ukrainian artillery, pinpointed by the drone, moves in for the kill and takes out each white dot, one by one.”
The Russians, with their overly centralized command system and lack of experienced noncommissioned officers, have been slow to respond to Ukrainian tactics. “The Russians have no imagination,” an American who said he was fighting with the Ukrainians told the Atlantic. “They would shell our positions, attack in large formations, and when their assaults failed, do it all over again.”
Having worn down the invaders, the Ukrainians have now gone on the offensive. Counterattacks around Kyiv have just liberated the suburb of Irpin and driven the Russians back at least 20 miles. The invaders are not in artillery range of the city center and Ukrainian air defenses preclude heavy bombing, enabling the return of some ordinary life in the capital. Ukrainian forces have retaken Trostianets and reopened the road to Sumy, a regional capital in the east. The Ukrainians are also advancing to relieve the pressure on the country’s second city, Kharkiv. While the Russians may have taken the ruins of Mariupol in the south, the Pentagon reports that they are no longer in full control of Kherson, the only regional capital captured in their initial offensive.
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who is overestimating the Russian army at this point?
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who is overestimating the Russian army at this point?
That is a fair point. No one is, perhaps, with regard to operational competence. However, the sheer size differential between the armies of Ukraine and Russia indicates that Russia could still potentially win a war of attrition while slaughtering hundreds of thousands of civilians. They seem intent on attempting to bomb cities into submission since they suck tactically.
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Reports of a potential cease fire with an agreement that Ukraine would basically give up Crimea and its far eastern territory and be officially neutral and not join NATO must be a dissatisfying pill to swallow but worth preventing the additional loss of life and destruction. I have not see anything that would prevent them from joining the EU though I could be wrong.
IMO the West, including the United States, now needs a mini-Marshall Plan for Ukraine. Pouring money into their rehabilitation, and turning them even more to the West and eventually getting them into the EU, is definitely worth the cost.
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There is a story this morning about Russia's 4th Armored. It's supposed to be most and best trained unit, the best equipped and it had 220 of the newest and best T-80 tanks and well there's basically nothing left of the unit. There are 80+ confirmed tanks destroyed by Ukraine and the actual number is said to be double that. A large number of T-80s have also been captured by Ukraine and already redeployed by Ukraine. Russia announced the remnants were going back to Russia "to regroup" but there's nothing left of the 4th to regroup.
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Ukrainians are bad asses man. My girlfriend was in Ukraine for a Fullbright program this year, they pulled her and put her in Poland right in the middle of the Olympics because they knew.
Fron what she was telling me, her Ukrainian friends who couldn’t leave right away, who are all super artsy people mind you, and not people you would expect to be on the front lines were all getting ready to take up arms.
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(https://images2.imgbox.com/41/60/T87DfMqd_o.jpg) (https://imgbox.com/T87DfMqd)
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Reports of a potential cease fire with an agreement that Ukraine would basically give up Crimea and its far eastern territory and be officially neutral and not join NATO must be a dissatisfying pill to swallow but worth preventing the additional loss of life and destruction. I have not see anything that would prevent them from joining the EU though I could be wrong.
IMO the West, including the United States, now needs a mini-Marshall Plan for Ukraine. Pouring money into their rehabilitation, and turning them even more to the West and eventually getting them into the EU, is definitely worth the cost.
I think "a deal" like that would ultimately be a total failure. And I'm sure Ukraine becoming more like "The West" would thrill Putin. At this point I have no idea what the goals are of the United States regarding this War and future ramifications of this situation.
What I do know is it's not conceivable that Biden's comment was a gaffe. Especially since we are now aware that his responses to the "questioning" of his recent comments was from a prepared talking points paper. He also knew all the questions in advance. This is a problem regardless of your political leanings.
Where I disagree with most people, and it's all sides of the political spectrum, is that "avoiding nuclear war " is the United States policy. That's not a policy and you can list all sorts of things that we and Western European countries have done that Putin could construe as a reason for unleashing his nuclear arsenal.
If that "deal" is actually made I would expect China to invade Taiwan within a year. And if you think what's happening now is a s-show? Multiply that by 1000 if Tawain is usurped by the CCP. The policy and goals should be for Ukraine to win at all costs. Period. That means remaining a sovereign country, crippling Russia and Putin from ever threatening them or European NATO countries again, removing Putin's cash cow of oil and gas, and controlling some world order.
If Biden "feels" that the pos should be taken out that's his prerogative as President of the United States. His comment that he "feels" a certain way "morally" but that's not US policy makes literally no sense. Now, I'm not saying regime change is necessarily the best answer but the way one "feels" as the leader of the free world generally leads to decisions /policies made by the United States.
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If that "deal" is actually made I would expect China to invade Taiwan within a year. And if you think what's happening now is a s-show? Multiply that by 1000 if Tawain is usurped by the CCP. The policy and goals should be for Ukraine to win at all costs. Period. That means remaining a sovereign country, crippling Russia and Putin from ever threatening them or European NATO countries again, removing Putin's cash cow of oil and gas, and controlling some world order.
China invading Taiwan is infinitely more difficult than Russia invading Ukraine. It's not happening.
And its easy for people in countries thousands of miles away to say "win at all costs," which I assume you mean capturing all of what was Ukraine a decade ago, but destroying even more property and killing thousands of more people are pretty hefty costs to hold onto areas that are populated with people who would likely rather be with Russia anyway.
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China invading Taiwan is infinitely more difficult than Russia invading Ukraine. It's not happening.
And its easy for people in countries thousands of miles away to say "win at all costs," which I assume you mean capturing all of what was Ukraine a decade ago, but destroying even more property and killing thousands of more people are pretty hefty costs to hold onto areas that are populated with people who would likely rather be with Russia anyway.
I completely disagree that "It's not happening" if Putin gets his way and is successful expanding Russian territory in Ukraine. Keep in mind this all could have been prevented if we acted decisively back in July.
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fluff
What do you base your comments on China invading Taiwan as being more difficult and not happening?
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I think "a deal" like that would ultimately be a total failure. And I'm sure Ukraine becoming more like "The West" would thrill Putin. At this point I have no idea what the goals are of the United States regarding this War and future ramifications of this situation.
What I do know is it's not conceivable that Biden's comment was a gaffe. Especially since we are now aware that his responses to the "questioning" of his recent comments was from a prepared talking points paper. He also knew all the questions in advance. This is a problem regardless of your political leanings.
Where I disagree with most people, and it's all sides of the political spectrum, is that "avoiding nuclear war " is the United States policy. That's not a policy and you can list all sorts of things that we and Western European countries have done that Putin could construe as a reason for unleashing his nuclear arsenal.
If that "deal" is actually made I would expect China to invade Taiwan within a year. And if you think what's happening now is a s-show? Multiply that by 1000 if Tawain is usurped by the CCP. The policy and goals should be for Ukraine to win at all costs. Period. That means remaining a sovereign country, crippling Russia and Putin from ever threatening them or European NATO countries again, removing Putin's cash cow of oil and gas, and controlling some world order.
If Biden "feels" that the pos should be taken out that's his prerogative as President of the United States. His comment that he "feels" a certain way "morally" but that's not US policy makes literally no sense. Now, I'm not saying regime change is necessarily the best answer but the way one "feels" as the leader of the free world generally leads to decisions /policies made by the United States.
FWIW, Boris Johnson said today that sanctions will NOT be lifted on Russia even if some sort of a ceasefire is agreed.
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FWIW, Boris Johnson said today that sanctions will NOT be lifted on Russia even if some sort of a ceasefire is agreed.
This "ceasefire" is most likely a moot point. I don't think Putin has any intention of agreeing to anything despite his dumpster fire of a military.
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fluff
What do you base your comments on China invading Taiwan as being more difficult and not happening?
Id be quite interested in hearing this too.
The difference, IMO, is you've seen a lot of Russians who are like "no war" or there is pushback sentiment. Ukraine is family, friends, neighbors, etc...
If China went after Taiwan, it would be cheered and supported full throat by the mainland, IMO. The Chinese government doesn't want Taiwan for strategic purposes like Russia and Ukraine, they fundamentally feel it has no right to exist and Id argue the majority in the country agree.
Ive mentioned before, one of the software engineers at my company immigrated from China about 25 years ago. For a variety of reasons, but freedom of opportunity and opposition to Communism were kind of key drivers. HOWEVER, bring up Taiwan? She starts cursing under her breath in Mandarin and has nothing nice to say. Our CFO brought back a Taiwanese cake for the officewhen he and his family stopped over there for a day on the way back from visiting family in Indonesia...and she literally refused to eat it. It was hilarious as she LOVES sweets and trying any food people bring in.
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Wags
Fluff's comments are literally the first of its kind that I have read or heard on the topic. To say I was floored would not be an understatement. I had just read this morning in the WSJ that Taiwan is keeping a close eye on the Ukrainian military and how they are handling the war with Russia. There are many so-called experts that thought the Russia-Ukraine war could have triggered the start of the Taiwan invasion by China.
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I worry about Taiwan all the time. They are a proud people, and a strong ally to the United States.
I don't know if what's happening in Ukraine would affect China's willingness to attack Taiwan one way or the other.
One big problem for Taiwan is who would come to its rescue if China unleashed its military might? Unlike Ukraine, which borders EU countries who are sympathetic to its cause (and who have a keen sense of self-preservation), Taiwan is an island that is isolated from the rest of the world.
Would the U.S. or other countries be willing to wage world war if China tries to take Taiwan? I sure feel for Taiwan and its people.
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I worry about Taiwan all the time. They are a proud people, and a strong ally to the United States.
I don't know if what's happening in Ukraine would affect China's willingness to attack Taiwan one way or the other.
One big problem for Taiwan is who would come to its rescue if China unleashed its military might? Unlike Ukraine, which borders EU countries who are sympathetic to its cause (and who have a keen sense of self-preservation), Taiwan is an island that is isolated from the rest of the world.
Would the U.S. or other countries be willing to wage world war if China tries to take Taiwan? I sure feel for Taiwan and its people.
It's far more than being a strong ally. We are completely dependent on their semiconductor foundries.
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82
There are very, very few countries that actually acknowledge Taiwan as its own country. They have allies, but we are top of the list. Almost all of China experts felt that the Russia-Ukraine situation could be provide some cover for China if they invaded Taiwan. 99.9999% of the people I follow believe it is when, not if, China invades and takes over Taiwan. For the record, I believe that would be a two minute fight, unless the USA helped Taiwan.
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Of course, my statement of "it's not happening" is just a guess. I am not an expert in foreign affairs by any means, but China knows it would be *extremely* difficult and costly to invade not to mention occupy. These are the reasons that the US only briefly looked at invading "Formosa" before looking elsewhere.
https://thediplomat.com/2021/05/why-a-taiwan-invasion-would-look-nothing-like-d-day
Especially after watching the world's reaction to Russia's invasion of Ukraine, how difficult a time Russia is having on a MUCH easier geographic battlefield, and how humiliated Russia is feeling, IMO they have to come to the conclusion that invading Taiwan would be an enormous mistake.
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82
There are very, very few countries that actually acknowledge Taiwan as its own country. They have allies, but we are top of the list. Almost all of China experts felt that the Russia-Ukraine situation could be provide some cover for China if they invaded Taiwan. 99.9999% of the people I follow believe it is when, not if, China invades and takes over Taiwan. For the record, I believe that would be a two minute fight, unless the USA helped Taiwan.
It would be the immediate end of the USA maintaining any semblance of a balance of power in the world Goose if China seized the semiconductor industry there. They would control everything basically and we would have zero capabilities to change that dynamic. There's also nothing that we have done to this point in Ukraine that would make the CCP hesitate. It's beyond scary and impacts the entire world.
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82
There are very, very few countries that actually acknowledge Taiwan as its own country. They have allies, but we are top of the list. Almost all of China experts felt that the Russia-Ukraine situation could be provide some cover for China if they invaded Taiwan. 99.9999% of the people I follow believe it is when, not if, China invades and takes over Taiwan. For the record, I believe that would be a two minute fight, unless the USA helped Taiwan.
I have absolutely no idea why you think the bolded.
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Of course, my statement of "it's not happening" is just a guess. I am not an expert in foreign affairs by any means, but China knows it would be *extremely* difficult and costly to invade not to mention occupy. These are the reasons that the US only briefly looked at invading "Formosa" before looking elsewhere.
https://thediplomat.com/2021/05/why-a-taiwan-invasion-would-look-nothing-like-d-day
Especially after watching the world's reaction to Russia's invasion of Ukraine, how difficult a time Russia is having on a MUCH easier geographic battlefield, and how humiliated Russia is feeling, IMO they have to come to the conclusion that invading Taiwan would be an enormous mistake.
I wouldn't think the Russian/Ukraine military operations are analogous at all to a potential China invasion of Taiwan.
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I have absolutely no idea why you think the bolded.
Fluffy, Taiwan defending itself is still dependent on USA military support and direct confrontation with the CCP.
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Muggsy
There is zero doubt in my mind that the USA has to protect Taiwan, at all costs. The stakes in Taiwan are higher than any place on the planet, IMO and we are in a race against time on building semiconductor manufacturing. As you noted, we have done nothing in current Russia war that would persuade China to second guess invading Taiwan. China invaded/taking over Taiwan is very high priority in the President Xi playbook and anyone that does not believe it is a real possibility is greatly uninformed on the region.
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I wouldn't think the Russian/Ukraine military operations are analogous at all to a potential China invasion of Taiwan.
Agreed. It would be much more difficult.
Fluffy, Taiwan defending itself is still dependent on USA military support and direct confrontation with the CCP.
Non-answer but sure....
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fluff
I said two minutes because it likely would take 15-30 seconds for China to get all of their birds fired up and about another 20 seconds to fly them from Xiamen over the Xiamen Bay into Taiwan.
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Agreed. It would be much more difficult.
Non-answer but sure....
First of all, we have no idea what Putin will do from this point forward in Ukraine. My guess is he's recalibrating and his troops need major supplies, but either way it is certainly not inconceivable he'll carpet bomb and use chemical weapons like he has in the past. However, no one predicted how difficult this would be for Putin including military experts.
Now if you're saying Xi taking over Taiwan would be harder if we do not directly protect Taiwan I can't agree with you. If we fight in concert with the Taiwanese air defense systems it will absolutely be harder than Putin's attack of Ukraine.
Again, I don't see anything that would frighten the CCP from attenpting an assault on Taiwan based on the West and the USA's actions thus far.
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I think the only thing preventing a Chinese invasion are economic concerns. I don’t really see how that will change.
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China invading Taiwan is infinitely more difficult than Russia invading Ukraine. It's not happening.
And its easy for people in countries thousands of miles away to say "win at all costs," which I assume you mean capturing all of what was Ukraine a decade ago, but destroying even more property and killing thousands of more people are pretty hefty costs to hold onto areas that are populated with people who would likely rather be with Russia anyway.
Agreed. Remember how bloody the US taking Okinawa was? China would have to reduce Tiawan to rubble and ashes before they'd cede the island.
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fluff
I said two minutes because it likely would take 15-30 seconds for China to get all of their birds fired up and about another 20 seconds to fly them from Xiamen over the Xiamen Bay into Taiwan.
Do you expect the Taiwan military to simply lob rocks at the Chinese airplanes? They'd need an amphibious assault to get their soldiers over there.
The Taiwan military has 450k members. China has something like 2 million soliders. There is a general rule that you need a 3:1 ratio to capture territory. That means China would be committing 1.2-1.3 million soldiers to capture the island. That is a very dangerous proposition.
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Do you expect the Taiwan military to simply lob rocks at the Chinese airplanes? They'd need an amphibious assault to get their soldiers over there.
The Taiwan military has 450k members. China has something like 2 million soliders. There is a general rule that you need a 3:1 ratio to capture territory. That means China would be committing 1.2-1.3 million soldiers to capture the island. That is a very dangerous proposition.
Active. I believe they have another 1-1.5MM in reserve soldiers as well
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I found this. Looks like a comprehensive read on US-Taiwan-China
Do the US and China have a ‘Taiwan agreement’?
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/10/8/do-the-us-and-china-have-a-taiwan-agreement
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Hards
I have spent the last 37 years of my life making a living first in Taiwan, then and now China and have expanded to all SE Asia over the past half decade. By NO means do I feel I am an expert on China, Taiwan or any other SE Asia country, but I definitely know that I have a well balanced, firsthand knowledge of the region. I only say this as a backdrop of how I come to my decisions/comments on this topic.
China is very unique and not for the reasons that most pundits use as a basis of their talking points. There are obvious traits they possess, that most everyone will agree on, they are calculating, ruthless, well prepared for any conflict they much choose to enter and very disciplined, but the biggest trait they possess today is President Xi and his power. Now, I am sure you will say you agree on the President Xi comment, but I want add a very basic twist to his significance. I would be willing to bet a nice sum of money that most, educated Americans would struggle to name the last leader of China. President Xi is now know by name and face by virtually every educated American. I believe his rise to power will go down as the biggest power shift in the world in this century.
China, if they invade Taiwan, will not be 100% prepared for victory, but will be 200% prepared for any twist that could their way in this battle, including any USA involvement. If they invade, which I believe they will, it will be the most prepared military operation the world has ever seen. Chinese nationalism has never been higher and a takeover of China will only throw gas on that fire.
Sadly, I believe the Belt and Road initiative is even more dangerous for the US than a possible Taiwan invasion. Their influence in Africa, Central and South America and elsewhere is growing by the day. President Xi looks at Taiwan as a symbolic W for China, the Belt and Road initiative is his crown jewel. Now, I believe the B&R could ultimately backfire on them if they invade Taiwan and have serious economic sanctions handcuff them.
Now to answer your military question, I think it would be short lived battle with very little harm inflicted on China for the reasons noted above. I am sure many on here have spent time in China and it is virtually impossible to not see their might on display. I made my first to Peking in 1985 and have seen this superpower grow over 37 years. You cannot have domestic flights in China without having delays due to China Air Force conducting training in airspace over the airport, their naval capabilities is on full display in and around China and I am guessing they have figured out the technology needed to get the job done.
I love Taiwan and believe I received an MBA on how to do business from the Taiwanese and will always love Taiwan. IMO, I do not think they have a chance to last very long in a battle with China. Two minutes might be a bit quick, but it would not be lengthy with USA military support, and real support.
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Do you expect the Taiwan military to simply lob rocks at the Chinese airplanes? They'd need an amphibious assault to get their soldiers over there.
The Taiwan military has 450k members. China has something like 2 million soliders. There is a general rule that you need a 3:1 ratio to capture territory. That means China would be committing 1.2-1.3 million soldiers to capture the island. That is a very dangerous proposition.
This is why a Chinese invasion while still possible is not probable.
* China is more cautious then Russia.
* China has not invaded anyone in modern history. There's no experience, no proof they are any more capable than Russia's army.
* Piggybacking the previous point, amphibious landings are extremely difficult. Look who has done them successfully in history: Is there a list beyond USA, UK & Canada? Japan, perhaps?
* Despite being much more involved with the world economy than Russia, China will jeopardize theirs. More to lose than Russia. And they don't have oil to back themselves up. Ask Japan how that worked for them in WWII?
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First of all, we have no idea what Putin will do from this point forward in Ukraine. My guess is he's recalibrating and his troops need major supplies, but either way it is certainly not inconceivable he'll carpet bomb and use chemical weapons like he has in the past. However, no one predicted how difficult this would be for Putin including military experts.
Now if you're saying Xi taking over Taiwan would be harder if we do not directly protect Taiwan I can't agree with you. If we fight in concert with the Taiwanese air defense systems it will absolutely be harder than Putin's attack of Ukraine.
Again, I don't see anything that would frighten the CCP from attenpting an assault on Taiwan based on the West and the USA's actions thus far.
Not many people realized just how far behind technologically the Russian military really was.
Its become clear that american tech is literally decades ahead. I originally thought that this was going to be the first "modern" war against two countries who would rival each other technologically.
It seems that became untrue fast.
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Hards
I have spent the last 37 years of my life making a living first in Taiwan, then and now China and have expanded to all SE Asia over the past half decade. By NO means do I feel I am an expert on China, Taiwan or any other SE Asia country, but I definitely know that I have a well balanced, firsthand knowledge of the region. I only say this as a backdrop of how I come to my decisions/comments on this topic.
China is very unique and not for the reasons that most pundits use as a basis of their talking points. There are obvious traits they possess, that most everyone will agree on, they are calculating, ruthless, well prepared for any conflict they much choose to enter and very disciplined, but the biggest trait they possess today is President Xi and his power. Now, I am sure you will say you agree on the President Xi comment, but I want add a very basic twist to his significance. I would be willing to bet a nice sum of money that most, educated Americans would struggle to name the last leader of China. President Xi is now know by name and face by virtually every educated American. I believe his rise to power will go down as the biggest power shift in the world in this century.
China, if they invade Taiwan, will not be 100% prepared for victory, but will be 200% prepared for any twist that could their way in this battle, including any USA involvement. If they invade, which I believe they will, it will be the most prepared military operation the world has ever seen. Chinese nationalism has never been higher and a takeover of China will only throw gas on that fire.
Sadly, I believe the Belt and Road initiative is even more dangerous for the US than a possible Taiwan invasion. Their influence in Africa, Central and South America and elsewhere is growing by the day. President Xi looks at Taiwan as a symbolic W for China, the Belt and Road initiative is his crown jewel. Now, I believe the B&R could ultimately backfire on them if they invade Taiwan and have serious economic sanctions handcuff them.
Now to answer your military question, I think it would be short lived battle with very little harm inflicted on China for the reasons noted above. I am sure many on here have spent time in China and it is virtually impossible to not see their might on display. I made my first to Peking in 1985 and have seen this superpower grow over 37 years. You cannot have domestic flights in China without having delays due to China Air Force conducting training in airspace over the airport, their naval capabilities is on full display in and around China and I am guessing they have figured out the technology needed to get the job done.
I love Taiwan and believe I received an MBA on how to do business from the Taiwanese and will always love Taiwan. IMO, I do not think they have a chance to last very long in a battle with China. Two minutes might be a bit quick, but it would not be lengthy with USA military support, and real support.
Goose,
You are making the same mistake everyone said about Russia invading Ukraine.
Big does not make it better or even good.
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Hards
Sadly, I believe the Belt and Road initiative is even more dangerous for the US than a possible Taiwan invasion. Their influence in Africa, Central and South America and elsewhere is growing by the day. President Xi looks at Taiwan as a symbolic W for China, the Belt and Road initiative is his crown jewel. Now, I believe the B&R could ultimately backfire on them if they invade Taiwan and have serious economic sanctions handcuff them.
Other countries are using the Belt & Road initiative for their own gain. They have no interest in China. I've read plenty on it recently. There are articles out there.
China wants them subservient and China's arrogance pisses African countries off. They are quietly asking for any US and European involvement/investment so they don't have to deal with China.
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MU Fan
The economic blowback is definitely something China would weigh carefully, but at some point, I believe they go all in regardless of how it affects them economically. That is why the Belt and Road initiative is so big, IMO. They are buying allies, many with vast natural resources and they are doing so when many Americans having no knowledge of it. I believe the misunderstanding of China by the West might be their biggest asset. I try and read or watch as much as I can on China every day because I need to for work and because I believe it is something we all should be educated on.
One thing on the economy, I 100% believe that severe economic sanctions on China would hurt the West far more than China in the short run. We cannot handle the supply chain issues now, what do we do if cut them off? Reshoring on a mass scale is apipedream, IMO and China fully knows this and knows our weakness. Why not hit Taiwan when it hurt us most?
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Hards
I have spent the last 37 years of my life making a living first in Taiwan, then and now China and have expanded to all SE Asia over the past half decade. By NO means do I feel I am an expert on China, Taiwan or any other SE Asia country, but I definitely know that I have a well balanced, firsthand knowledge of the region. I only say this as a backdrop of how I come to my decisions/comments on this topic.
China is very unique and not for the reasons that most pundits use as a basis of their talking points. There are obvious traits they possess, that most everyone will agree on, they are calculating, ruthless, well prepared for any conflict they much choose to enter and very disciplined, but the biggest trait they possess today is President Xi and his power. Now, I am sure you will say you agree on the President Xi comment, but I want add a very basic twist to his significance. I would be willing to bet a nice sum of money that most, educated Americans would struggle to name the last leader of China. President Xi is now know by name and face by virtually every educated American. I believe his rise to power will go down as the biggest power shift in the world in this century.
China, if they invade Taiwan, will not be 100% prepared for victory, but will be 200% prepared for any twist that could their way in this battle, including any USA involvement. If they invade, which I believe they will, it will be the most prepared military operation the world has ever seen. Chinese nationalism has never been higher and a takeover of China will only throw gas on that fire.
Sadly, I believe the Belt and Road initiative is even more dangerous for the US than a possible Taiwan invasion. Their influence in Africa, Central and South America and elsewhere is growing by the day. President Xi looks at Taiwan as a symbolic W for China, the Belt and Road initiative is his crown jewel. Now, I believe the B&R could ultimately backfire on them if they invade Taiwan and have serious economic sanctions handcuff them.
Now to answer your military question, I think it would be short lived battle with very little harm inflicted on China for the reasons noted above. I am sure many on here have spent time in China and it is virtually impossible to not see their might on display. I made my first to Peking in 1985 and have seen this superpower grow over 37 years. You cannot have domestic flights in China without having delays due to China Air Force conducting training in airspace over the airport, their naval capabilities is on full display in and around China and I am guessing they have figured out the technology needed to get the job done.
I love Taiwan and believe I received an MBA on how to do business from the Taiwanese and will always love Taiwan. IMO, I do not think they have a chance to last very long in a battle with China. Two minutes might be a bit quick, but it would not be lengthy with USA military support, and real support.
I agree with much of what you've said, but I whole-heartedly disagree with your military assessment. Also, I'm no expert. I just love military, history, and global politics. We can disagree about the difficulty of taking an island of motivated inhabitants that is 14k sq mi. Okinawa is 463 sq mi. 15k-20k dead Americans... we took it, but it was EXPENSIVE. It was the bloodiest battle in the Pacific theater in WW2. Could China eventually overwhelm Taiwan? Yes. Would it be extremely costly? Absolutely.
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MU Fan
The economic blowback is definitely something China would weigh carefully, but at some point, I believe they go all in regardless of how it affects them economically. That is why the Belt and Road initiative is so big, IMO. They are buying allies, many with vast natural resources and they are doing so when many Americans having no knowledge of it. I believe the misunderstanding of China by the West might be their biggest asset. I try and read or watch as much as I can on China every day because I need to for work and because I believe it is something we all should be educated on.
One thing on the economy, I 100% believe that severe economic sanctions on China would hurt the West far more than China in the short run. We cannot handle the supply chain issues now, what do we do if cut them off? Reshoring on a mass scale is apipedream, IMO and China fully knows this and knows our weakness. Why not hit Taiwan when it hurt us most?
100% agree.
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Goose,
You are making the same mistake everyone said about Russia invading Ukraine.
Big does not make it better or even good.
But that doesn’t mean China's military or their potential attack of Taiwan would be remotely as inept as Russia's military or their attack in Ukraine.
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I agree with much of what you've said, but I whole-heartedly disagree with your military assessment. Also, I'm no expert. I just love military, history, and global politics. We can disagree about the difficulty of taking an island of motivated inhabitants that is 14k sq mi. Okinawa is 463 sq mi. 15k-20k dead Americans... we took it, but it was EXPENSIVE. It was the bloodiest battle in the Pacific theater in WW2. Could China eventually overwhelm Taiwan? Yes. Would it be extremely costly? Absolutely.
You cannot compare Okinawa in the 1940's to a potential military assault of Taiwan in 2023.
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MU Fan
Of course, China went in and ran unsupervised in these countries and the smart ones are now realizing that. That said, the infrastructure and investments are being run by Chinese in those countries and that creates another issue. What is the US supposed to do, go into these countries and take over Chinese infrastructure investments? For the time being, the horse is out of the barn on the B&R and we gave China a green light to get a dangerous head start in these underdeveloped countries. I doubt if China is going hand over the super ports they have built in Pakistan and elsewhere because countries are upset they let China in. They are almost decade into this initiative and not going to play nice because a country in Africa regret getting into bed with them
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MU Fan
No offense, comparing China and Russia is like comparing MU and Villanova. I will say it again, President Xi is a smart, smart man and he will leave no stone unturned.
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What would you do Goose if you were in charge? This administration seems completely lost and inept to me as did the prior administration but in different ways.
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You cannot compare Okinawa in the 1940's to a potential military assault of Taiwan in 2023.
You're right. There will be much more bloodshed in a modern military theater than with the inferior weapons of the 40s.
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MU Fan
No offense, comparing China and Russia is like comparing MU and Villanova. I will say it again, President Xi is a smart, smart man and he will leave stone unturned.
Yeah, it’s not an apt comparison at all. I don’t have your intimate knowledge on dealing with China but spent enough time learning about China and its people.
If they ever should choose to take on a military endeavor, it’ll be far more calculated and prepared for than Russia. It’s important to understand the history of the people of China and Russia to understand the fundamental differences in approach and action.
Russia has spent centuries trying to define Russian nationalism and its place in the world. It still hasn’t because of the makeup of its inhabitants and the view of government from the general population. China has spent a century defining Chinese nationalism and preparing and executing plans to integrate into the world as a power. It is a huge gap between the two
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Muggsy,
Sadly, what I have done for a living has helped create the issue we face. Dating back to President Clinton, every President has allowed China to play unsupervised and it created a major mess. Without a military conflict I believe hurting them economically in a big way would have been the solution twenty years ago and we missed that opportunity. If American's could stomach real economic heartache, that would be my solution today. The problem is, it would be real economic heartache and the Fed would not have the ability to cover that mess because they are out of bullets.
Social unrest in China would be China's biggest obstacle to overcome and that probably is still their biggest fear. Economic pain brings out the worst in all of us and China would be no different.
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Rico
I think a big misconception today is understanding Chinese nationalism. This not our Grandparent's China and mindset has changed more in a decade than the previous 50+ years. I always feared younger, educated Chinese having the same nationalistic pride that American's had and that is now happening. The world got small and Chinese now believe they can be the superpower of the world and not willing to wait another 100 years for it to happen.
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Muggsy,
Sadly, what I have done for a living has helped create the issue we face. Dating back to President Clinton, every President has allowed China to play unsupervised and it created a major mess. Without a military conflict I believe hurting them economically in a big way would have been the solution twenty years ago and we missed that opportunity. If American's could stomach real economic heartache, that would be my solution today. The problem is, it would be real economic heartache and the Fed would not have the ability to cover that mess because they are out of bullets.
What do you mean specifically by "stomaching economic heartache" today and how would this thwart Xi and his grandiose plans?
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Rico
I think a big misconception today is understanding Chinese nationalism. This not our Grandparent's China and mindset has changed more in a decade than the previous 50+ years. I always feared younger, educated Chinese having the same nationalistic pride that American's had and that is now happening. The world got small and Chinese now believe they can be the superpower of the world and not willing to wait another 100 years for it to happen.
I happened to be in a Chinese history class when Deng died in ‘97 and had a long talk about it with my professor who was a serious Sino-phile and he was adamant once the old guard was all off this mortal coil, the change from party and cult of personality obedience to that of nationalism would be China’s biggest change and make them our biggest threat from a nation standpoint. Him, along with others at the time were prescient about the explosion of McWorld post-Cold War being the immediate threat but long term, China was the sleeping giant
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You're right. There will be much more bloodshed in a modern military theater than with the inferior weapons of the 40s.
So then why did you write "remember Okinawa" in your pseudo analogy/argument?
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Muggsy
There are a lot smarter guys on here on how we won the Cold War, but if we put China into a depression, we would have a very, very, very serious economic crisis. President Xi would likely face very strong internal conflicts within his country at a very large scale. Could he survive it, sure, but at what cost?
I noted earlier that I believe the USA government is woefully under educated on how China works, their capabilities and what makes them make decisions. The pandemic has only had made that worse, IMO. China has two plus of years of limited Western (aside from spies) presence in China and a lot happens in two years. My honest opinion, I think Tim Cook and Apple has better Chinese intel than our government does.
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I happened to be in a Chinese history class when Deng died in ‘97 and had a long talk about it with my professor who was a serious Sino-phile and he was adamant once the old guard was all off this mortal coil, the change from party and cult of personality obedience to that of nationalism would be China’s biggest change and make them our biggest threat from a nation standpoint. Him, along with others at the time were prescient about the explosion of McWorld post-Cold War being the immediate threat but long term, China was the sleeping giant
China's history of nationalism goes back to their dynastic cycles. But Goose makes an interesting point on how it's been mobilized in a smaller world. What's changed is thei CCP's use of capitalism and natural materials to accumulate much more wealth and power. I'f I live to 70 It's very possible we will no longer be the premier superpower. Unless I stop it. :)
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So then why did you write "remember Okinawa" in your pseudo analogy/argument?
What? I'm saying China's troops will die by the thousands trying to take Taiwan. Just like Americans died by the thousands taking Okinawa. Oki is tiny. Taiwan is a whole-ass country and orders of magnitude larger.
I was picking at you for agreeing with Goose about the ease you two seem to think China will take Taiwan.
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Muggsy
There are a lot smarter guys on here on how we won the Cold War, but if we put China into a depression, we would have a very, very, very serious economic crisis. President Xi would likely face very strong internal conflicts within his country at a very large scale. Could he survive it, sure, but at what cost?
I noted earlier that I believe the USA government is woefully under educated on how China works, their capabilities and what makes them make decisions. The pandemic has only had made that worse, IMO. China has two plus of years of limited Western (aside from spies) presence in China and a lot happens in two years. My honest opinion, I think Tim Cook and Apple has better Chinese intel than our government does.
Interesting.....I guess it's not my expertise but I fear we lack foresight and have cabinet members that have no idea what they're doing, or even saying day to day.
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Rico
Prior to wasting my time on scoop, I wrote countless letters/emails to government leaders, major media outlets and even Mark Belling hoping to share the thoughts your professor shared with you, and I received the same response I get on scoop talking ball. I was, and still am obsessed, on this topic because I strongly believe we took a sound asleep giant and made them into a real giant. Again, I am far from an expert, but I witnessed this on a monthly basis for three plus decades. I saw China have an industrial revolution, a sexual revolution and military buildup not seen WWII in thirty year period. We gave them the playbook and they added their own personal twist to it.
Muggs
The nationalism today is that because of gained wealth and material things they are convincing people their way is the right way. Couple that with the CCP sharing the MU campus crime thread to their people to show what idiots we have become:)
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What? I'm saying China's troops will die by the thousands trying to take Taiwan. Just like Americans died by the thousands taking Okinawa. Oki is tiny. Taiwan is a whole-ass country and orders of magnitude larger.
I was picking at you for agreeing with Goose about the ease you two seem to think China will take Taiwan.
I never intimated or stated they would take them with ease. I mentioned the two possible scenarios with or without USA backing. The fact is none of us really know just as apparently the experts didn't know about the difficulties Putin would face in Ukraine.
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Rico
Prior to wasting my time on scoop, I wrote countless letters/emails to government leaders, major media outlets and even Mark Belling hoping to share the thoughts your professor shared with you, and I received the same response I get on scoop talking ball. I was, and still am obsessed, on this topic because I strongly believe we took a sound asleep giant and made them into a real giant. Again, I am far from an expert, but I witnessed this on a monthly basis for three plus decades. I saw China have an industrial revolution, a sexual revolution and military buildup not seen WWII in thirty year period. We gave them the playbook and they added their own personal twist to it.
Muggs
The nationalism today is that because of gained wealth and material things they are convincing people their way is the right way. Couple that with the CCP sharing the MU campus crime thread to their people to show what idiots we have become:)
I don't know enough about it but do you feel Chinese Nationalism today has spread to struggling socioeconomic classes there? Because historically nationalism was not easily spread in rural areas or what have you.
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What? I'm saying China's troops will die by the thousands trying to take Taiwan. Just like Americans died by the thousands taking Okinawa. Oki is tiny. Taiwan is a whole-ass country and orders of magnitude larger.
I was picking at you for agreeing with Goose about the ease you two seem to think China will take Taiwan.
It's too bad we didn't listen to Taiwan about COVID and allowed the WHO to pretend they don't exist.
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Muggsy
I cannot speak about rural China mindset at all. I can say that I really love the Chinese people that are still in the smaller cities (under 2m or so), but no feel for the sticks. That said, 100's of millions of people have moved to urban areas and those are the folks I am referring about. To put things in perspective, I think Guangdong Province has somewhere around 120m living there and you can drive to all four borders in a half day or so if there were not 120m people living there.
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Muggsy
I cannot speak about rural China mindset at all. I can say that I really love the Chinese people that are still in the smaller cities (under 2m or so), but no feel for the sticks. That said, 100's of millions of people have moved to urban areas and those are the folks I am referring about. To put things in perspective, I think Guangdong Province has somewhere around 120m living there and you can drive to all four borders in a half day or so if there were not 120m people living there.
I've done some business in Hong Kong and Shanghai but don't entirely have a feel for this specific nationalism you have written about. Obviously my Hong Kong experiences may give me false overall perceptions.
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Tom Clancy's book Red Storm Rising has been referenced often lately because how much he was right about what would happen to Russian military invasion. One of his last books (written with Mark Greany) is Threat Vector dealing with China. Basically China threatens cyber war and invasion and does it and US military puts them in their place. It ends in stalemate because the US is not putting troops on the ground in China but China is forced to back off of everything and their premier looses face.
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Muggsy
I cannot speak about rural China mindset at all. I can say that I really love the Chinese people that are still in the smaller cities (under 2m or so), but no feel for the sticks. That said, 100's of millions of people have moved to urban areas and those are the folks I am referring about. To put things in perspective, I think Guangdong Province has somewhere around 120m living there and you can drive to all four borders in a half day or so if there were not 120m people living there.
For perspective, Shenzhen is the 3rd largest city in China. Bordering on top 10 in the world. A manufacturing and economic powerhouse. When Al and the Warriors on a title in 1977...it was a glorified fishing village about the size of Madison. Guangdong province itself, that Goose mentions and where Shenzhen is, has basically tripled in size since the 70s.
Also of note, in Shenzhen, 95% of the population is under 65.
I've done some business in Hong Kong and Shanghai but don't entirely have a feel for this specific nationalism you have written about. Obviously my Hong Kong experiences may give me false overall perceptions.
HK doesn't count. Thats not China...yet at least. Very different people and cultural mindset, much of which was pretty firmly anti-China hive mind. And Shanghai, thats like going to NYC to get a pulse on the US as a whole.
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Wags
I was in Shenzhen in 1985 and the population was roughly 250k. A lot has changed.
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And the world will see a Chinese invasion of Taiwan well in advance. Where are they hiding all those LSTs?
Are they air dropping all those troops in? And up a mountain? Staring at Taiwan from China aren't you looking UP a mountain? That's not easy to take militarily especially after having to cross a long water body.
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MU Fan,
The closest point between Taiwan and China was the biggest smuggling route in the 80's and 90's, I believe China can navigate the terrain.
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Goose:
I appreciate the perspective you have brought here based on your decades of experience. I am one of those who does not understand much about China - either its history or its military or its current state. I do read some of what's going on, but most accounts aren't very deep.
If it would be so easy to take Taiwan, and if taking Taiwan would cripple America, why doesn't Xi just do it?
Also, some have referenced that America would have to protect Taiwan militarily. How the hell would we even do that?
This all does sound like the plot of a novel, perhaps one about the start of World War III, and it's freakin' scary.
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MU Fan,
The closest point between Taiwan and China was the biggest smuggling route in the 80's and 90's, I believe China can navigate the terrain.
They're going to smuggle in tens of thousands of troops unnoticed by satellite or humint on the ground? The US is watching and they will let the world know.
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Goose:
I appreciate the perspective you have brought here based on your decades of experience. I am one of those who does not understand much about China - either its history or its military or its current state. I do read some of what's going on, but most accounts aren't very deep.
If it would be so easy to take Taiwan, and if taking Taiwan would cripple America, why doesn't Xi just do it?
Also, some have referenced that America would have to protect Taiwan militarily. How the hell would we even do that?
This all does sound like the plot of a novel, perhaps one about the start of World War III, and it's freakin' scary.
See the Tom Clancy Threat Vector novel I referenced.
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Muggsy
There are a lot smarter guys on here on how we won the Cold War, but if we put China into a depression, we would have a very, very, very serious economic crisis. President Xi would likely face very strong internal conflicts within his country at a very large scale. Could he survive it, sure, but at what cost?
Goose,
This is why I don’t think China will actually go through with an attack on Taiwan. While sanctions we would put in place would affect us here at home, the economic effects would be worse over there. China has worked very hard to build their economy for several decades. I don’t think they would risk that progress for a national ‘feel good’ move.
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If it would be so easy to take Taiwan, and if taking Taiwan would cripple America, why doesn't Xi just do it?
Also, some have referenced that America would have to protect Taiwan militarily. How the hell would we even do that?
The US Navy which still has more naval assets in the area than China on its home turf and that's only part of our navy.
Plus our new group of Super Friends joint security group of USA, India, Japan and Australia and others countries are looking to join.
Missiles - if I read correctly, we launched more in the first two days of Iraq than Russia has in 5 weeks.
China has an oil problem can't import enough and the US Navy would choke out sea supply with the above.
China may have boats in a navy now but where have they deployed or menaced any country since Admiral Zheng He in the 1340's? (He was Uigar, coincidentally too.). Taking over the uninhabited Spratly's not far from the China coast?
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The US Navy which still has more naval assets in the area than China on its home turf and that's only part of our navy.
Plus our new group of Super Friends joint security group of USA, India, Japan and Australia and others countries are looking to join.
Missiles - if I read correctly, we launched more in the first two days of Iraq than Russia has in 5 weeks.
China has an oil problem can't import enough and the US Navy would choke out sea supply with the above.
China may have boats in a navy now but where have they deployed or menaced any country since Admiral Zheng He in the 1340's? (He was Uigar, coincidentally too.). Taking over the uninhabited Spratly's not far from the China coast?
Thanks for this answer. Hopefully Xi sees all of the above as the big deterrent you believe it is.
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Goose:
I appreciate the perspective you have brought here based on your decades of experience. I am one of those who does not understand much about China - either its history or its military or its current state. I do read some of what's going on, but most accounts aren't very deep.
If it would be so easy to take Taiwan, and if taking Taiwan would cripple America, why doesn't Xi just do it?
Right. People who claim that would be easy have no understanding of how difficult it would be to capture AND CONTROL an island nation of 26 million people with rough terrain.
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82
I would suggest doing some more reading on the topic, and probably would not use Tom Clancy as my starting point. Many experts fear the invasion of Taiwan by China would trigger WWIII. In addition, if interested on the topic, I would do some digging on China's military, and Navy specifically. In addition #2, if you have interest on Sino-US economic implications, Leland Miller and Kyle Bass are two very strong individuals in this field.
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82
I would suggest doing some more reading on the topic, and probably would not use Tom Clancy as my starting point. Many experts fear the invasion of Taiwan by China would trigger WWIII. In addition, if interested on the topic, I would do some digging on China's military, and Navy specifically. In addition #2, if you have interest on Sino-US economic implications, Leland Miller and Kyle Bass are two very strong individuals in this field.
Thanks for the suggestions. I was interested in your take, but I appreciate the suggestions.
Right. People who claim that would be easy have no understanding of how difficult it would be to capture AND CONTROL an island nation of 26 million people with rough terrain.
I don't know whether it would be easy or difficult because, as I said, I know little about the situation. I hope you're right that it would be so difficult; maybe that means China would be unlikely to ever try.
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MU Fan
The economic blowback is definitely something China would weigh carefully, but at some point, I believe they go all in regardless of how it affects them economically. That is why the Belt and Road initiative is so big, IMO. They are buying allies, many with vast natural resources and they are doing so when many Americans having no knowledge of it. I believe the misunderstanding of China by the West might be their biggest asset. I try and read or watch as much as I can on China every day because I need to for work and because I believe it is something we all should be educated on.
One thing on the economy, I 100% believe that severe economic sanctions on China would hurt the West far more than China in the short run. We cannot handle the supply chain issues now, what do we do if cut them off? Reshoring on a mass scale is apipedream, IMO and China fully knows this and knows our weakness. Why not hit Taiwan when it hurt us most?
Are you saying the US would let China take Taiwan without a fight? Are you are saying the US military is not capable of defending Taiwan with conventional weapons? Are you saying China would use Nuclear weapons to take Taiwan? To me the fall of Taiwan is an existential threat to the security of the US, but then again our corporations would probably side with China.
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Thanks for the suggestions. I was interested in your take, but I appreciate the suggestions.
I don't know whether it would be easy or difficult because, as I said, I know little about the situation. I hope you're right that it would be so difficult; maybe that means China would be unlikely to ever try.
Which is probably the reason it hasn't been done for the last 60 years. Even though there is a new, more nationalist regime in power, that doesn't make it easier. And the world's reaction to Russia likely gives them pause as well.
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Which is probably the reason it hasn't been done for the last 60 years. Even though there is a new, more nationalist regime in power, that doesn't make it easier. And the world's reaction to Russia likely gives them pause as well.
I think your last statement is an important one here.
I don’t think Putin expected such a unified front, not only from the west, but even places in his own back yard like Romania, Slovakia, etc.
Not that Putin really gives a crap, he’ll let his people starve so long as he gets his way, but it may certainly give other countries pause.
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warrior69
The USA has always made it very clear that we would help defend Taiwan, as a matter of fact the US has been helping train the Taiwanese over the past year or so. My belief they are doing this because they do not think a China invasion is a real possibility. I think the USA would have no choice but to help defend Taiwan, hence many experts believing that would be the start of WWIII.
I am somewhat surprised that some on here appear to be unaware of a Taiwan invasion by China is a major global fear. Seriously, I thought this was a widely known possibility.
FYI--that was just an editorial, not meant to address your question. It has been pointed out that I answer posts incorrectly and did not want to cause any extra posts needed to be added pointing out by mistakes.
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I am somewhat surprised that some on here appear to be unaware of a Taiwan invasion by China is a major global fear.
Who is unaware of this?
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From the NYT:
Russia appears to be focusing more on eastern Ukraine. That’s both good and bad for Ukraine’s military.
"Ukrainian civilians have shown resilience amid terrible suffering. Its military has kept Russia from taking over Kyiv and even regained some ground in the northeast. And the Russian military has suffered heavy losses, partly because of an overly ambitious strategy — evidently reflecting Putin’s wishes more than military reality — that left its forces stretched thin and vulnerable to counterattacks.
Russia’s early failures explain its new willingness to hold peace negotiations and its promised pullback from Kyiv. U.S. officials understandably expressed skepticism yesterday about whether Putin is genuinely open to ending the war. But Russia really does appear to have narrowed its goals, in response to its battlefield struggles. That’s good news for Ukraine.
At the same time, Russia’s new strategy creates a potential challenge: Increasingly, Russia appears to be concentrating its effort in fewer areas — particularly the Donbas region, in eastern Ukraine.
“We’ve seen a major shift toward one specific front in this war,” Michael Kofman of the Russia studies program at CNA told me. “For Russia, it’s much more rational.”
Focusing on Donbas has multiple advantages for Russia. In recent weeks, it has already made progress in taking over territory there. It can hold that territory without the long, exposed supply lines that Ukraine has successfully attacked elsewhere. A battle over Donbas also gives Russia an opportunity to encircle and destroy a large chunk of Ukraine’s military. More than a third of all Ukrainian troops may be in the region, fighting both the separatists and the Russian military.
Russia appears to be on the verge of being able to create such a pincer around these Ukrainian troops, coming from both the east and the south. Experts refer to this Russian progress as a “land bridge” from Crimea to the Donbas.
The city of Mariupol, in southern Donbas, is a part of this story. Putin and his military planners have attacked Mariupol so brutally because it is the largest city in the potential land bridge that they do not yet control. It also has a major port.
Either way, Putin may try to use the cease-fire negotiations as a way to lock in the territory Russia now controls or soon may, including the land bridge. That prospect worries some experts who want to see Putin defeated. “We’re at the next moment of significant danger around this conflict,” Frederick Kagan, a military expert at the American Enterprise Institute, told me.
If the West pressures Ukraine to accept a cease-fire that leaves the land bridge intact, Ukraine would be a broken country, Kagan argues. It would be cut off from a large number of its citizens and from economically important coal and natural gas resources in the east. Many parts of central Ukraine would be vulnerable to Russian attacks and disruption.
“If we allow the Russians under the facade of a cease-fire to control that line, that’s exactly what I’m worried about,” Kagan added.
The war has gone surprisingly well for Ukraine so far, but it still faces major risks. “I think a lot of folks in the West are more starry-eyed than Ukrainians are,” Kofman said. “I’m skeptical that either side is ready for peace, because both sides in this war still have opportunities in the battlefield.”
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fluff
I guess reading some posts that have said it has not happened for a reason and will not happen made me believe that is not a concern to some on here. I guess just me being a clown again.
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fluff
I guess reading some posts that have said it has not happened for a reason and will not happen made me believe that is not a concern to some on here. I guess just me being a clown again.
I never claimed it wasn't a "major global fear." I just don't think its going to happen. People can be afraid or concerned about a bunch of things that don't end up happening. That doesn't mean you don't think about or plan for them in case they do.
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Good discussion in here, and many valid points on both sides. I will just say, yet again, the direct comparisons of Russia and China aren't too sound. From an internal nationalism perspective, to a governmental strategy and competency perspective, to a military perspective. Which is a big part of what makes China so scary.
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fluff
For the record, I have no idea if or when China will invade Taiwan but believe that is more possible than not. As for your claims on how difficult that conflict could be for China, I could not disagree more. China would be the most prepared military in the history of the world for that conflict and only US interference would complicate the conflict.
As for your belief it will not happen, I hope you are right.
Wags
Spot on post! I said it yesterday, but I believe China is the misunderstood place on the planet and NO ONE aside from the CCP is an expert on what their capabilities are today and what they will be in the future. For me, I would never underestimate what they are capable of and would double down any intel we have on them.
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MU Fan
The economic blowback is definitely something China would weigh carefully, but at some point, I believe they go all in regardless of how it affects them economically. That is why the Belt and Road initiative is so big, IMO. They are buying allies, many with vast natural resources and they are doing so when many Americans having no knowledge of it. I believe the misunderstanding of China by the West might be their biggest asset. I try and read or watch as much as I can on China every day because I need to for work and because I believe it is something we all should be educated on.
One thing on the economy, I 100% believe that severe economic sanctions on China would hurt the West far more than China in the short run. We cannot handle the supply chain issues now, what do we do if cut them off? Reshoring on a mass scale is apipedream, IMO and China fully knows this and knows our weakness. Why not hit Taiwan when it hurt us most?
In all honesty, the above is why the TPP was strategically important, it would solidify economic connections in the region to the west. Us cancelling the TPP left an economic power vacuum that will strengthen Chinas economic power/connections.
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In all honesty, the above is why the TPP was strategically important, it would solidify economic connections in the region to the west. Us cancelling the TPP left an economic power vacuum that will strengthen Chinas economic power/connections.
I don't disagree that it may not have been a great idea to leave the TPP, however in the long run I don't think it matters. Unless companies/countries were ready to take on the short to medium term pain of leaving China/manufacturing in China, it wouldn't matter. If you have 90% of your manufacturing in China and move 20-25% to Vietnam or Malaysia or Mexico...you're still pouring plenty of fuel into China
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One china/Taiwan military analysis:
https://youtu.be/VNZ0so0LCoM
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Interesting video. I was in Taipei the day of that election in 1995 and one of the highlights in my time working in Asia.
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Guess we should retitle the thread "The future war in Taiwan"
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82
There are very, very few countries that actually acknowledge Taiwan as its own country. They have allies, but we are top of the list. Almost all of China experts felt that the Russia-Ukraine situation could be provide some cover for China if they invaded Taiwan. 99.9999% of the people I follow believe it is when, not if, China invades and takes over Taiwan. For the record, I believe that would be a two minute fight, unless the USA helped Taiwan.
Could you explain how China would conduct a successful amphibious assault on an extraordinarily well-defended and mountainous island in two minutes? Even assuming hyperbole on your part, why do you think it would be an easy conquest?
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Pakuni
1:18am Domestic disturbance at 2222 69th Ave NE, suspect fled on foot heading SW
Oh, sorry wrong thread.
Yes, hyperbole in my statement on the time needed for China to take over Taiwan. As I have said in previous posts, if China does attempt to take over Taiwan, I believe they would be best trained military the world has ever seen and a gameplan to match its force. Hopefully it never happens.
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Pakuni
1:18am Domestic disturbance at 2222 69th Ave NE, suspect fled on foot heading SW
That's way too close to the Northern Michigan campus for my liking.
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I never claimed it wasn't a "major global fear." I just don't think its going to happen. People can be afraid or concerned about a bunch of things that don't end up happening. That doesn't mean you don't think about or plan for them in case they do.
I agree with this. I understand the concern, but I think (at least for now) that the Chinese leadership is too pragmatic to risk the effects of an attack. Their economy isn't going to be put at risk. The actions of our last president to alienate old allies and partners has led to a much, much greater Chinese influence in the world - especially in Africa. While emotion says to take Taiwan, reality says to grow their economic influence in the world. They do not give in to tantrums or delusions of grandeur like Putin and Trump.
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Pakuni
Yes, hyperbole in my statement on the time needed for China to take over Taiwan. As I have said in previous posts, if China does attempt to take over Taiwan, I believe they would be best trained military the world has ever seen and a gameplan to match its force. Hopefully it never happens.
Yes. Chinese military leaders are way, way more competent than Russian counterparts.
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Yes, hyperbole in my statement on the time needed for China to take over Taiwan. As I have said in previous posts, if China does attempt to take over Taiwan, I believe they would be best trained military the world has ever seen and a gameplan to match its force. Hopefully it never happens.
Why do you believe the bolded? Outside of some border skirmishes they really haven't been all that involved in any military conflicts recently, much less something of the size, coordination and planning that we are talking about here.
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In all honesty, the above is why the TPP was strategically important, it would solidify economic connections in the region to the west. Us cancelling the TPP left an economic power vacuum that will strengthen Chinas economic power/connections.
I totally agree.
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Why do you believe the bolded? Outside of some border skirmishes they really haven't been all that involved in any military conflicts recently, much less something of the size, coordination and planning that we are talking about here.
Goose, I do appreciate your insight on China and Taiwan. You've spent way way more time in China and dealing with China then I have and you know them better.
It is a major world concern. An invasion is very possible, but less probable for a myriad of reasons.
My engineering experience with Chinese manufacturing is they lack creativity, and they are waiting to be told what to do and they throw a lot of bodies to look at something or an issue (because they can). This can be based on outdated experience also.
I don't doubt the Chinese would be well prepared, and I don't doubt they will have good military technology. They certainly will.
Fluff just reiterated pretty much what I have been saying, their main problem is that there is nothing in the last 70 years that says there military can do big or anything on this scale. That means something. Having the toys is one thing, but can you use them is another. NCO's are the backbone of every army, and even if the Chinese have them (as Russia has none which is one of their ground issues), they don't have military battle experience and how wil that translate on the field.
I read several times over the last few weeks that American pilots have 3-4 times the flight hours than the rest of the militaries in the world and it translates into, well, better pilots.
OK, I'm done.
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Yes. Chinese military leaders are way, way more competent than Russian counterparts.
How could we possibly know this?
As fluff points up, China hasn't been involved in a serious conflict in 60-70 years, depending how serious you rate their early 60s scrap with India. I doubt a single Chinese military leader was out of his diapers then.
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MU Fan
Appreciate your post. I think we can agree that no one really knows what China can or will do. Time will tell. My general opinion is I would never assume something will not happen because it has not happened in the past 70 years. IMO, much like the video jesmu shared, I am sure China will try everything in it's power to overtake Taiwan without using military force and see what happens.
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China would have the best trained military in the world, yet spends a fraction of what the US spends? Sure seems like we're not getting a good return after a proposed $8 trillion over 10 years.
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Hards
I have spent the last 37 years of my life making a living first in Taiwan, then and now China and have expanded to all SE Asia over the past half decade. By NO means do I feel I am an expert on China, Taiwan or any other SE Asia country, but I definitely know that I have a well balanced, firsthand knowledge of the region. I only say this as a backdrop of how I come to my decisions/comments on this topic.
China is very unique and not for the reasons that most pundits use as a basis of their talking points. There are obvious traits they possess, that most everyone will agree on, they are calculating, ruthless, well prepared for any conflict they much choose to enter and very disciplined, but the biggest trait they possess today is President Xi and his power. Now, I am sure you will say you agree on the President Xi comment, but I want add a very basic twist to his significance. I would be willing to bet a nice sum of money that most, educated Americans would struggle to name the last leader of China. President Xi is now know by name and face by virtually every educated American. I believe his rise to power will go down as the biggest power shift in the world in this century.
China, if they invade Taiwan, will not be 100% prepared for victory, but will be 200% prepared for any twist that could their way in this battle, including any USA involvement. If they invade, which I believe they will, it will be the most prepared military operation the world has ever seen. Chinese nationalism has never been higher and a takeover of China will only throw gas on that fire.
Sadly, I believe the Belt and Road initiative is even more dangerous for the US than a possible Taiwan invasion. Their influence in Africa, Central and South America and elsewhere is growing by the day. President Xi looks at Taiwan as a symbolic W for China, the Belt and Road initiative is his crown jewel. Now, I believe the B&R could ultimately backfire on them if they invade Taiwan and have serious economic sanctions handcuff them.
Now to answer your military question, I think it would be short lived battle with very little harm inflicted on China for the reasons noted above. I am sure many on here have spent time in China and it is virtually impossible to not see their might on display. I made my first to Peking in 1985 and have seen this superpower grow over 37 years. You cannot have domestic flights in China without having delays due to China Air Force conducting training in airspace over the airport, their naval capabilities is on full display in and around China and I am guessing they have figured out the technology needed to get the job done.
I love Taiwan and believe I received an MBA on how to do business from the Taiwanese and will always love Taiwan. IMO, I do not think they have a chance to last very long in a battle with China. Two minutes might be a bit quick, but it would not be lengthy with USA military support, and real support.
Why is it so much more expensive to manufacture things here than asia. Can the average south east asian afford the top line iPhone or Galaxy? Are flat panel screens affordable to the average asian as they are to the average American. Do they pay the same price for things as we do here for everyday items. Just wondering why we don't make things here anymore.
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jesmu
I find that their military spending is a fraction of ours, but you may well be correct. I have not believed ONE economic report from China in over 25 years, but that is me.
warrior69
That is loaded question, to some degree. Obviously lower labor costs, and more importantly, tremendous financial backing from the government for companies that export.
As for cost of goods to Chinese people, virtually every item we use in USA is more expensive in China. Computers, smart phones, etc. are often cheaper sales price in USA. Every time our staff travels to the USA a ton of money is spent at the Apple store. I will add that the cost of an iphone does not discourage Chinese from buying them.
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2222 69th Ave NE
Goose
Nice.
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China would have the best trained military in the world, yet spends a fraction of what the US spends? Sure seems like we're not getting a good return after a proposed $8 trillion over 10 years.
We don't know what they actually spend cause they aren't going to give truthful numbers. Thats a start.
Why is it so much more expensive to manufacture things here than asia. Can the average south east asian afford the top line iPhone or Galaxy? Are flat panel screens affordable to the average asian as they are to the average American. Do they pay the same price for things as we do here for everyday items. Just wondering why we don't make things here anymore.
Goose mentioned part of it, but I don't think people truly grasp the actual financials of labor cost. We had a manufacturing company in China that we worked with and they were aggressively scaling up their use of our tech. We mentioned we had a robotic system add on that would automate a manual process. It would be roughly $25K. They declined cause it would be cheaper for them to pay 2-3 people for multiple YEARS to do the manual work of it.
I have customers in India who pay office staff $250-300 a month and, in a business environment where lower level people leave jobs all the time, thats sufficient to keep people happy and staying. The assembly or lower level unskilled labor, for a lot of the goods that get made there, likely are making less. And thats in Mumbai adjacent. You head north to Surat and its cheaper.
You're talking 5+ workers for the cost of even the absolute minimum wage worker in the US.
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Wags
Agree to some degree on the labor situation. We work with a lot of factories that have invested a ton of money on automation. Like everywhere in the world, some companies and some follow. Many of our suppliers, especially in automotive space, are very lean people wise in regard to folks on the floor.
As for India, we have an electrical engineer with a decade of multinational experience running our sourcing and her pay is slightly under $1k per month. We are in the process of hiring staff and opening an office in Mexico and the same skillset/experience as our India staff is roughly $4k per month.
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Why is it so much more expensive to manufacture things here than asia. Can the average south east asian afford the top line iPhone or Galaxy? Are flat panel screens affordable to the average asian as they are to the average American. Do they pay the same price for things as we do here for everyday items. Just wondering why we don't make things here anymore.
When I would travel to our plants in Honduras & Costa Rica 6-8 years ago, laborers were making barely over a dollar an hour. Since then, the company closed the plants there and everything is manufactured in Asia now. So that gives you an idea of the labor costs there.
Yes, they paid similar prices there. That's why a majority of the cars on the road were old Datsuns from the 80s.
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How could we possibly know this?
As fluff points up, China hasn't been involved in a serious conflict in 60-70 years, depending how serious you rate their early 60s scrap with India. I doubt a single Chinese military leader was out of his diapers then.
I say this because most money allocated for the military is used for the military. Training and discipline matter in Chinese culture.
The Russian military leaders are either oligarchs who are raping the military budget or military & defense leaders who tell Putin what he wants to hear. There are no dissenting voices to make Putin have to think deeply about his decisions. That is why they were so ill prepared despite an overwhelming numbers advantage.
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I say this because most money allocated for the military is used for the military. Training and discipline matter in Chinese culture.
The Russian military leaders are either oligarchs who are raping the military budget or military & defense leaders who tell Putin what he wants to hear. There are no dissenting voices to make Putin have to think deeply about his decisions. That is why they were so ill prepared despite an overwhelming numbers advantage.
I assume you're correct Jockey but it's a little weird to me that our Intelligence and most former generals, colonels, etc, were so wrong about their capabilities.
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Why is it so much more expensive to manufacture things here than asia. Can the average south east asian afford the top line iPhone or Galaxy? Are flat panel screens affordable to the average asian as they are to the average American. Do they pay the same price for things as we do here for everyday items. Just wondering why we don't make things here anymore.
In some twisted way this may answer your question or make it more confusing.
On one of my visits to China circa 2006, the Saturday afternoon activity was the plant manager and two engineers take us to a "giant mall with a big store" where we could shop. One of the engineers wanted to go because he had a "savings card". We get there and the attraction was Walmart. It looked like every other Walmart. I bought a nice package of chopsticks that I still use.
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Wags
Agree to some degree on the labor situation. We work with a lot of factories that have invested a ton of money on automation. Like everywhere in the world, some companies and some follow. Many of our suppliers, especially in automotive space, are very lean people wise in regard to folks on the floor.
As for India, we have an electrical engineer with a decade of multinational experience running our sourcing and her pay is slightly under $1k per month. We are in the process of hiring staff and opening an office in Mexico and the same skillset/experience as our India staff is roughly $4k per month.
Yea I agree. When it comes to China, I think it depends. Larger scale there is definite interest. It’s case by case.
But India? Not even a question. If it’s not dirt cheap they aren’t interested. Our strategic partner from Belgium shares our Indian operation. They staff a bunch of programmers. They hire 5-6 for the cost of what they would have 1 in the home office in Antwerp. The headaches and lower production is easily offset by cost.
So that and all the other examples are why we don’t produce domestically. Unless we can fully automate and DRASTICALLY cut labor costs for certain processes, the financials just don’t work.
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IBTL. You know it is coming.
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I assume you're correct Jockey but it's a little weird to me that our Intelligence and most former generals, colonels, etc, were so wrong about their capabilities.
Yeah, it’s surprising that the people who have jobs protecting us would over play the threat, requiring them to build up their empire.
And I am sure the weapon manufacturing companies don’t do that either.
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I assume you're correct Jockey but it's a little weird to me that our Intelligence and most former generals, colonels, etc, were so wrong about their capabilities.
Strange thing to think considering how wrong they seem to be all the time.
Unless they knew all along but don't want the world to think they're as knowledgeable as they are. AKA it was all a show.
The guys that specialize in spying, intel, and disinformation should probably not ever be trusted to give an honest answer to the general public.
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Yea I agree. When it comes to China, I think it depends. Larger scale there is definite interest. It’s case by case.
But India? Not even a question. If it’s not dirt cheap they aren’t interested. Our strategic partner from Belgium shares our Indian operation. They staff a bunch of programmers. They hire 5-6 for the cost of what they would have 1 in the home office in Antwerp. The headaches and lower production is easily offset by cost.
So that and all the other examples are why we don’t produce domestically. Unless we can fully automate and DRASTICALLY cut labor costs for certain processes, the financials just don’t work.
I've also heard and read that the 'please the boss' culture in India is terrible. As in, they'll straight up just tell you what you want to hear despite it being an obvious lie.
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I deal with customers in India all the time. They listen to nothing. They claim no knowledge of the international container shortage and shipping delays. Repeat the same thing day after day and make requests for ridiculousness amounts of product even after you've told them for 5 straight days that it will take 3 weeks to make what they want. We love that one guy involved the US based head of metal sourcing to pressure us and after we explaining everything to him, we heard from someone else at our customer that the US guy read India the riot act.
We were yelling at each other internally one day then just stopped and said, "WTF are we all getting bent over Anand for?"
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What a day of Ukraine news.
Seven busses of Russians sent to Belarus with radiation poisoning from Chornobyl.
https://twitter.com/MrKovalenko/status/1509278005469847574
Sounds like the Finns & Swedes are joining NATO. The Swedes are flipping out mad that Russian jets flew over Swedish airspace with nukes on the Russian planes this month.
https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1509300030406078465
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Can we go back to calling Taiwan, Formosa?
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The guys that specialize in spying, intel, and disinformation should probably not ever be trusted to give an honest answer to the general public.
Perhaps, but those guys also never answer or talk to the general public about their information. I think the ones you're referring to are "former" or "retired".
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Strange thing to think considering how wrong they seem to be all the time.
Unless they knew all along but don't want the world to think they're as knowledgeable as they are. AKA it was all a show.
The guys that specialize in spying, intel, and disinformation should probably not ever be trusted to give an honest answer to the general public.
not sure I'd call it a show but it's deception, and it works. In this case, the truth about Russia's true ability was known but the narrative of a vaunted force in the public domain gave putin confidence and complacency. Now we're actually seeing how his force operates and we haven't had to intervene militarily because they're so undertrained. Strikes me as all by design.
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I saw this article referenced on another site.
Looks like it's written by the USAF so you can see a bias, however it has actual specific numbers and data comparing US & China in multiple categories why if I was China I would worry about attacking Taiwan.
Why China Cannot Challenge the US Military Primacy
Published Dec. 13, 2021
By Mangesh Sawant
Journal of Indo-Pacific Affairs, Air University Press --
https://www.airuniversity.af.edu/JIPA/Display/Article/2870650/why-china-cannot-challenge-the-us-military-primacy/
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not sure I'd call it a show but it's deception, and it works. In this case, the truth about Russia's true ability was known but the narrative of a vaunted force in the public domain gave putin confidence and complacency. Now we're actually seeing how his force operates and we haven't had to intervene militarily because they're so undertrained. Strikes me as all by design.
Yeah, that's sort of what I was getting at.
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What a day of Ukraine news.
Seven busses of Russians sent to Belarus with radiation poisoning from Chornobyl.
https://twitter.com/MrKovalenko/status/1509278005469847574
Sounds like the Finns & Swedes are joining NATO. The Swedes are flipping out mad that Russian jets flew over Swedish airspace with nukes on the Russian planes this month.
https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1509300030406078465
I would very skeptical of this report.
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I assume you're correct Jockey but it's a little weird to me that our Intelligence and most former generals, colonels, etc, were so wrong about their capabilities.
When was the last time the military or intelligence groups gave accurate information to the public? These folks have agendas influencing their public information or are apparently just ignorant.
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When was the last time the military or intelligence groups gave accurate information to the public? These folks have agendas influencing their public information or are apparently just ignorant.
Well....they were right that Putin was going to invade Ukraine.
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A bunch of global issues as result of the conflict:
https://youtu.be/ZLyUeKa2jzY
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From the intertubes:
"What do you call a Russian regiment returning from the Ukraine?"
"A company"
"What's the difference between "war" and "special military operation"?"
"15 years in prison"
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A bunch of global issues as result of the conflict:
https://youtu.be/ZLyUeKa2jzY
Good information, TY for posting.
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Having lived and worked in China and Russia I think it's 100% probable that in my lifetime China will attempt to take over Taiwan militarily. I think that chance increases if Putin has any form of success with Ukraine, even if he gets only Donbass and a land bridget to Crimea.
The main difference between Russia and China:
Russia is fatalistically incompetent. They know they are incompetent, they know they cannot do anything about it, they start things and cannot finish or just do them poorly and move on.
China is aggressively incompetent. They don't know they are incompetent. They in fact think they are highly competent when there is much evidence to the contrary. They go barreling into anything with no regard for anything other than the objective, and will throw people, lives, money, materials, everything into it without any concept of cost or value.
Both have broken communication links to the top.
Both have massive corruption that means they don't really know how much of anything they really have.
Does any of this stop them? No. Xi, like Putin, will want a crowning achievement before he dies or steps down and it will be one man's war for Taiwan just like it is in Ukraine. And because of the Chinese nationalism/mentality/leadership/lack of values/etc. it will be long and bloody and messy and ugly.
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China is aggressively incompetent. They don't know they are incompetent. They in fact think they are highly competent when there is much evidence to the contrary. They go barreling into anything with no regard for anything other than the objective, and will throw people, lives, money, materials, everything into it without any concept of cost or value.
Very curious what you base this on?
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Informative tweet thread on the current status of the war.
https://twitter.com/KofmanMichael/status/1510289334989205506
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Very curious what you base this on?
He typed China when he really meant the US
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I feel like some of these guys who have spent a lot of time in China suffer from a little Stockholm Syndrome.
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Barbaric and disgusting.
Russian massacre in Bucha, north of Kyiv. Over 300 civilians murdered as the Russians retreated All men age 15-60 with their hands tied behind their back
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This is from a friend of a friend. She is, well, was, a tour guide in her native Ukraine. She has successfully escaped to the Netherlands, but others were not so fortunate.
I've decided not to post a very sensitive photos from liberated towns like Irpin, Bucha, Gostomel near Kyiv... I am sure you have seen them in your news?
It looks like a picture from a horror movie, however this is our reality. Victims of innocent civilians were found who were brutally murdered - raped women, whom they tried to burn out; elderly people, men, many of them had their hands tied, people were shot in the back of the head.
But I want you to MUST READ these notes below, which were written by a 16-year-old girl from Mariupol - a city that is under blockade, which is destroyed, which is constantly under bombardment of civilians.
READ IT TILL THE END! The world must be horrified! (I've translated it into English)
"We went to the toilet, slept, and ate leftovers in the same basement. And somehow uncle Kolya caught a pigeon, it was probably the 5th or 6th day, and we fried it and ate it. And then we all vomited."
"When our neighbor died, we could not carry her out, and she began to smell. And then it became quiet and Uncle Kolya carried her out, and he blew himself up on a mine. Mom cried a lot. After the death of dad, Uncle Kolya was the closest person.
... The corpses stink so much. They were there everywhere. I covered my brother's eyes with my mother's scarf so that he would not see this."
"Mom held on to the last, 3 days before our evacuation, she died. I told my brother that she was asleep and there was no need to wake her up. But he seems to understand everything."
"Do you know that feeling when it hurts? I once fell in love with a boy, but he didn’t fall in love with me, and I thought it hurt.
But it turned out that it hurts to see your mother die in front of you. And my brother keeps coming up to her and saying: "Mommy, don't sleep, you'll freeze." And we will never get to her grave. She remained in the damp and dark basement."
"I hate russia. My own uncle is there. Do you know what he told me on the phone today? "Katya? Who is Katya? Girl, I don't know you. What war, what Katya?" And then he wrote from the unknown number, "Katya, don't write to me. It's dangerous for me and my family. And mom can't be returned." I hate them! It was his sister! How is that possible?!"
"I don't want to live anymore. We'll probably be divided now. And I might not see my brother. What for? Why did this putin save us? We lived well. Even bought a car. Uncle Kolya promised to teach me how to drive. They even burned out the car. And there is no apartment anymore.
I want to die, but I can't."
"Hug your kids! Otherwise, when you will be gone, and they will not remember your smell.
If I survive and then I will have children one day, I will be hugging them all the time."
… Hard to find words…
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Flyer
It is impossible to have words, and it is beyond heartbreaking.
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This is from a friend of a friend. She is, well, was, a tour guide in her native Ukraine. She has successfully escaped to the Netherlands, but others were not so fortunate.
I've decided not to post a very sensitive photos from liberated towns like Irpin, Bucha, Gostomel near Kyiv... I am sure you have seen them in your news?
It looks like a picture from a horror movie, however this is our reality. Victims of innocent civilians were found who were brutally murdered - raped women, whom they tried to burn out; elderly people, men, many of them had their hands tied, people were shot in the back of the head.
But I want you to MUST READ these notes below, which were written by a 16-year-old girl from Mariupol - a city that is under blockade, which is destroyed, which is constantly under bombardment of civilians.
READ IT TILL THE END! The world must be horrified! (I've translated it into English)
"We went to the toilet, slept, and ate leftovers in the same basement. And somehow uncle Kolya caught a pigeon, it was probably the 5th or 6th day, and we fried it and ate it. And then we all vomited."
"When our neighbor died, we could not carry her out, and she began to smell. And then it became quiet and Uncle Kolya carried her out, and he blew himself up on a mine. Mom cried a lot. After the death of dad, Uncle Kolya was the closest person.
... The corpses stink so much. They were there everywhere. I covered my brother's eyes with my mother's scarf so that he would not see this."
"Mom held on to the last, 3 days before our evacuation, she died. I told my brother that she was asleep and there was no need to wake her up. But he seems to understand everything."
"Do you know that feeling when it hurts? I once fell in love with a boy, but he didn’t fall in love with me, and I thought it hurt.
But it turned out that it hurts to see your mother die in front of you. And my brother keeps coming up to her and saying: "Mommy, don't sleep, you'll freeze." And we will never get to her grave. She remained in the damp and dark basement."
"I hate russia. My own uncle is there. Do you know what he told me on the phone today? "Katya? Who is Katya? Girl, I don't know you. What war, what Katya?" And then he wrote from the unknown number, "Katya, don't write to me. It's dangerous for me and my family. And mom can't be returned." I hate them! It was his sister! How is that possible?!"
"I don't want to live anymore. We'll probably be divided now. And I might not see my brother. What for? Why did this putin save us? We lived well. Even bought a car. Uncle Kolya promised to teach me how to drive. They even burned out the car. And there is no apartment anymore.
I want to die, but I can't."
"Hug your kids! Otherwise, when you will be gone, and they will not remember your smell.
If I survive and then I will have children one day, I will be hugging them all the time."
… Hard to find words…
This is gut wrenching, beyond tragic, and absolutely sickening. It saddens and really angers me that this wasn't prevented back in like August. And it could have been stopped before this scumbag started bombing indiscriminately, without question. We need to hear more stories like these imo as difficult as they are to read. Ty for sharing.
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This is gut wrenching, beyond tragic, and absolutely sickening. It saddens and really angers me that this wasn't prevented back in like August. And it could have been stopped before this scumbag started bombing indiscriminately, without question. We need to hear more stories like these imo as difficult as they are to read. Ty for sharing.
How could this have been prevented back in August?
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How could this have been prevented back in August?
Well, I mean, I guess Ukraine could have just let the Russians take over without a fight.
I'm sure we'll get some response that would have required hindsight of the current situation.
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How could this have been prevented back in August?
August 2019*
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Thank God this president calls Putin a war criminal who needs to be taken out. Four years of sucking up got us in this mess.
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Thank God this president calls Putin a war criminal who needs to be taken out. Four years of sucking up got us in this mess.
So if this happened under the last administration you believe Putin wouldn't have been called a war criminal with what he's done? The focus needs to be on the here and now.
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"war criminal" is a useless phrase
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"war criminal" is a useless phrase
True but they keep saying it every day and from every cabinet member.
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So of this happened under the last administration you believe Putin wouldn't have been called a war criminal with what he's done? The focus needs to be on the here and now.
Uh...you were the one who brought up August.
But anyway the fact is that we have been mismanaging the Russia situation for quite a while now. Under Putin they have a history of invading other countries, such as Georgia and Ukraine, with little recourse. (Those occurred under the Bush and Obama administrations respectively.)
But its pretty obvious that the President from 2017-2021 was enamored with Putin and tied relationships with Ukraine to advancing his personal political ambitions. There are still elements of the far right that support Russia in this conflict. And frankly its gross.
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Fluffy, we could have supplied Ukraine with far more weapons much, much, earlier. I also believe this "WW3 narrative" if NATO or us provided a no-fly zone isn't really rational. I've said from day one I would have had special ops take the guy out but I know that bothers people. The fact is all of our moves have been reactive to Putin. I actually agree with Biden's "gaffe" that he can't remain in power unless we truly destroy his economy and ability to use his cash cow..
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Trump's constant idiotic statements and the fact that he was "enamored" with Putin doesn't change the fact that he didn't invade Ukraine under the last administration and he did under this administration, the Obama administration, and the Bush Administration.
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Trump's constant idiotic statements and the fact that he was "enamored" with Putin doesn't change the fact that he didn't invade Ukraine under the last administration and he did under this administration, the Obama administration, and the Bush Administration.
It’s the pee tape
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Trump's constant idiotic statements and the fact that he was "enamored" with Putin doesn't change the fact that he didn't invade Ukraine under the last administration and he did under this administration, the Obama administration, and the Bush Administration.
NM. No point.
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Fluffy, we could have supplied Ukraine with far more weapons much, much, earlier. I also believe this "WW3 narrative" if NATO or us provided a no-fly zone isn't really rational. I've said from day one I would have had special ops take the guy out but I know that bothers people. The fact is all of our moves have been reactive to Putin. I actually agree with Biden's "gaffe" that he can't remain in power unless we truly destroy his economy and ability to use his cash cow..
Hold on
So you think if a US jet shot down a Russian jet, it wouldn't be perceived as an act of war? You don't believe it would lead to direct conflict between the US and Russia?
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But anyway the fact is that we have been mismanaging the Russia situation for quite a while now. Under Putin they have a history of invading other countries, such as Georgia and Ukraine, with little recourse. (Those occurred under the Bush and Obama administrations respectively.)
We were too busy invading other countries, without recourse, to worry about Russia invading countries outside our sphere of influence.
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Hold on
So you think if a US jet shot down a Russian jet, it wouldn't be perceived as an act of war? You don't believe it would lead to direct conflict between the US and Russia?
He’s been wishcasting escalation for the entire conflict. It’s not worth taking seriously.
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Hold on
So you think if a US jet shot down a Russian jet, it wouldn't be perceived as an act of war? You don't believe it would lead to direct conflict between the US and Russia?
As opposed to our javelins and stingers?? Or if we gave them the old MIG 29's the Ukrainians have been begging for? I don't think Putin has any intention of a direct conflict with thec US despite his constant threats. He's not suicidal. He could certainly justify direct conflict with a number of nations, inuding us, that would lead to nuclear war if that's his goal. From my perspective he will not stop unless he's stopped by NATO or us.
It doesn't matter if Ukraine delays his plans, we know his ultimate goals. So if Ukraine cannot defend themselves, and there are say 10 million refugees, and Putin stays in power, are you telling me he will not try to attack Poland, former s-bloc countries, or the Baltics? My preference is for it not to get to that point.
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NM. No point.
Finally, a post of yours I can agree with.
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Fluffy, we could have supplied Ukraine with far more weapons much, much, earlier. I also believe this "WW3 narrative" if NATO or us provided a no-fly zone isn't really rational. I've said from day one I would have had special ops take the guy out but I know that bothers people. The fact is all of our moves have been reactive to Putin. I actually agree with Biden's "gaffe" that he can't remain in power unless we truly destroy his economy and ability to use his cash cow..
Just here to say that I'm glad you're not in charge of US foreign policy.
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As opposed to our javelins and stingers?? Or if we gave them the old MIG 29's the Ukrainians have been begging for? I don't think Putin has any intention of a direct conflict with thec US despite his constant threats. He's not suicidal. He could certainly justify direct conflict with a number of nations, inuding us, that would lead to nuclear war if that's his goal. From my perspective he will not stop unless he's stopped by NATO or us.
It doesn't matter if Ukraine delays his plans, we know his ultimate goals. So if Ukraine cannot defend themselves, and there are say 10 million refugees, and Putin stays in power, are you telling me he will not try to attack Poland, former s-bloc countries, or the Baltics? My preference is for it not to get to that point.
AGAIN, The Migs are worthless. Do you think Russia doesn't have a metric ass load of anti aircraft weapons?
For the record, what are his 'ultimate goals'? You keep saying this, but I've never read nor heard anywhere what they are.
And yes, I'm 100% saying that Putin will never attack a NATO country.
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Yeah and I think Zelensky knows this. Ask for the stars to get the moon.
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Yeah and I think Zelensky knows this. Ask for the stars to get the moon.
100%
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So, Jill Biden was Obama's VP. Woo new, hey?
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AGAIN, The Migs are worthless. Do you think Russia doesn't have a metric ass load of anti aircraft weapons?
For the record, what are his 'ultimate goals'? You keep saying this, but I've never read nor heard anywhere what they are.
If the Ukranians want them how do you know they're "worthless"? They probably have a better idea what would help than you or I do.
And yes, I'm 100% saying that Putin will never attack a NATO country.
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See pbiflyer's post.
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Just here to say that I'm glad you're not in charge of US foreign policy.
Who is in charge of US foreign policy?
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Who is in charge of US foreign policy?
The President
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The President
Oh.. that's reassuring.
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Oh.. that's reassuring.
So now instead of attempting logical debate, you’re just resorting to political shots. 🙄🙄🙄
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So now instead of attempting logical debate, you’re just resorting to political shots. 🙄🙄🙄
It's not a political shot at all. I asked a question and I disagree with his answer.
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As opposed to our javelins and stingers?? Or if we gave them the old MIG 29's the Ukrainians have been begging for? I don't think Putin has any intention of a direct conflict with thec US despite his constant threats. He's not suicidal. He could certainly justify direct conflict with a number of nations, inuding us, that would lead to nuclear war if that's his goal. From my perspective he will not stop unless he's stopped by NATO or us.
It doesn't matter if Ukraine delays his plans, we know his ultimate goals. So if Ukraine cannot defend themselves, and there are say 10 million refugees, and Putin stays in power, are you telling me he will not try to attack Poland, former s-bloc countries, or the Baltics? My preference is for it not to get to that point.
Dude. You're psychotic.
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Finally, a post of yours I can agree with.
When it comes to not having a point, I defer to your expertise.
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Dude. You're psychotic.
Is it psychotic we've given Ukraine like $14b in military aid? If the goal is to "avoid World War 3" or a "direct confrontation" why are we giving them anything? Why should we upset Putin at all and risk him going nuclear?
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The Ukranian request for a no fly zone provided by NATO is clever positioning and nothing more. There's no way in the world NATO is going to provide a no fly zone over a non-NATO country. Heck, they would struggle to agree to do it for a NATO country.
It is clever positioning by Ukraine so that when this situation is all in final negotiations, they can "refuse" to join NATO as a compromise to put on the table for Russia, on the basis that NATO wouldn't help them anyway.
As for any US role in all of this, "selling" arms is (like it or not) globally accepted. Piloting a fighter jet that engages in active combat is an act of war with all of the relevant consequences.
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Is it psychotic we've given Ukraine like $14b in military aid? If the goal is to "avoid World War 3" or a "direct confrontation" why are we giving them anything? Why should we upset Putin at all and risk him going nuclear?
Again, nuance. Things are not always black and white. Back channel politics are a thing.
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Is it psychotic we've given Ukraine like $14b in military aid? If the goal is to "avoid World War 3" or a "direct confrontation" why are we giving them anything? Why should we upset Putin at all and risk him going nuclear?
I wouldn't say THE goal is to "avoid World War 3." I would say it's A goal and likely the most important one. But there are others, such as containing Russian aggression, providing humanitarian support for people who need it, etc., and oftentimes those act in conflict with one another.
You are looking for black and white in a world where many shades of gray exist.
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Oh.. that's reassuring.
Ummm, who do you think is supposed to be in charge of U.S. Foreign Policy?
Look, IMO there isn't much daylight to criticize how the U.S. has played this. U.S. Intelligence agencies recognized that Russia was determined to invade and preemptively called Putin out on it so that he couldn't surprise anyone with false flag operations. We immediately increased our military support to Ukraine and provided the sorts of weapons that they've used to stymie the Russia offensive.
Most importantly, we've galvanized the West in unified opposition in a way many people didn't think was possible, and that credit goes to Biden again IMO. We are not going to engage in a direct military conflict as you've been asking for. I'm not sure what you think should have been done in August, given the above.
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In August, FD wuz mucking up and bungling da Afghanistan pull out, aina?
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In August, FD wuz mucking up and bungling da Afghanistan pull out, aina?
Yes. But I think four years of gushing from the previous President was probably more of a factor. But you never seem to realize that.
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Yes. But I think four years of gushing from the previous President was probably more of a factor. But you never seem to realize that.
Or that the prior president had already negotiated/committed to leaving
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Kasparov is very critical of this administration and basically predicted this would happen for many months while the media called him crazy.
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Kasparov is very critical of this administration and basically predicted this would happen for many months while the media called him crazy.
Kasparov has always hated Putin and fled Russia over a decade ago. He has as much knowledge of the situation as any other citizen political analyst.
He can't go back to Russia.
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Kasparov is very critical of this administration and basically predicted this would happen for many months while the media called him crazy.
Who called him crazy?
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Kasparov has always hated Putin and fled Russia over a decade ago. He has as much knowledge of the situation as any other citizen political analyst.
He can't go back to Russia.
He's more knowledgeable and obviously smarter than anyone here Hards.
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Who called him crazy?
Several media people unless I'm imagining things.
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He's been called crazy because he has a lot of crazy thoughts. I just don't recall him being called crazy because he predicted the invasion of Ukraine. And I don't even recall him doing that.
Regardless, his opinion of this stuff isn't terribly relevant to me.
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Several media people unless I'm imagining things.
Such as? Again, what do you think should have been done in August?
On another note, both the Czech Republic and Germany sending more heavy equipment including tanks and fighting vehicles. Seems to me tanks could be considered offensive weapons like MiGS are.
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Several media people unless I'm imagining things.
Receipts?
You said "the media" called him crazy for predicting in August that Russia might invade Ukraine (which was about 7 years after Russia invaded Ukraine).
Who called him crazy?
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basically predicted this would happen for many months
Whoa. Didn't basically everyone know this would happen since mid 2021? If you can find some evidence of non-crazy people calling it impossible I'd love to see that.
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Several media people unless I'm imagining things.
Considering Kasparov is widely quoted in many circles and I don’t seem to recall the crazy comments, I’d also like to see the receipts.
I could see the Putin apologists in right wing media calling him crazy but I don’t even recall that
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Whoa. Didn't basically everyone know this would happen since mid 2021? If you can find some evidence of non-crazy people calling it impossible I'd love to see that.
No one said it was impossible but I was called psychotic even though some of my views are similar to Kasparov's. Frankly he's warned about Putin for about a decade.
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He's been called crazy because he has a lot of crazy thoughts. I just don't recall him being called crazy because he predicted the invasion of Ukraine. And I don't even recall him doing that.
Regardless, his opinion of this stuff isn't terribly relevant to me.
Why not? His views are irrelevant but CNN/Fox people are worth listening to? The man has a lot of knowledge and is probably a genius. Why would you not want to hear his opinions even if you disagree Fluffy?
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Why not? His views are irrelevant but CNN/Fox people are worth listening to? The man has a lot of knowledge and is probably a genius. Why would you not want to hear his opinions even if you disagree Fluffy?
There are many geniuses who espouse opinions and "facts" on things they have no specialty or intricate knowledge of. Kasparov is an incredible chess player and obviously a very intelligent person, but that alone doesn't make him an expert on foreign policy, nor does it mean he should automatically be listened to. Ted Kaczynski is a certifiable genius. So are other people that are prone to being a bit out there.
There are plenty of Hollywood celebrities with genius level IQs. Do you want to start listening to all of their thoughts on foreign policy or what the US should be doing?
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There are many geniuses who espouse opinions and "facts" on things they have no specialty or intricate knowledge of. Kasparov is an incredible chess player and obviously a very intelligent person, but that alone doesn't make him an expert on foreign policy, nor does it mean he should automatically be listened to. Ted Kaczynski is a certifiable genius. So are other people that are prone to being a bit out there.
There are plenty of Hollywood celebrities with genius level IQs. Do you want to start listening to all of their thoughts on foreign policy or what the US should be doing?
Yep yep.
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No one said it was impossible but I was called psychotic even though some of my views are similar to Kasparov's. Frankly he's warned about Putin for about a decade.
As have 1000s of others. But two other people didn't worry about Putin.
Bush: "I looked the man in the eye. I found him to be very straightforward and trustworthy."
Trump: "Putin declares a big portion of the Ukraine -- of Ukraine. Putin declares it as independent. Oh, that's wonderful."
and
"I mean, he's taking over a country for two dollars' worth of sanctions,
I'd say that's pretty smart. He's taking over a country -- really a vast, vast location, a great piece of land with a lot of people, and just walking right in."
It's time you quit talking like a tough guy when this is who you support.
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Why not? His views are irrelevant but CNN/Fox people are worth listening to? The man has a lot of knowledge and is probably a genius. Why would you not want to hear his opinions even if you disagree Fluffy?
Who here is saying we should let CNN and Fox News personalities drive our foreign policy.
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Several media people unless I'm imagining things.
I'll be the 6-7th person to ask...
Who called him crazy for the Russian invasion prediction?
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He's more knowledgeable and obviously smarter than anyone here Hards.
Bro, he's a famous chess player.
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There are many geniuses who espouse opinions and "facts" on things they have no specialty or intricate knowledge of. Kasparov is an incredible chess player and obviously a very intelligent person, but that alone doesn't make him an expert on foreign policy, nor does it mean he should automatically be listened to. Ted Kaczynski is a certifiable genius. So are other people that are prone to being a bit out there.
There are plenty of Hollywood celebrities with genius level IQs. Do you want to start listening to all of their thoughts on foreign policy or what the US should be doing?
Like Kid Rock or somethin'.
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Like Kid Rock or somethin'.
That's a Detroit celebrity! Whole different ballgame.
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America in a nutshell...
Genocide in Bucha. Stories coming out that Mariupol may be much much worse. And on scoop, we're having another dick measuring contest for Biden and Trump.
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America in a nutshell...
Genocide in Bucha. Stories coming out that Mariupol may be much much worse. And on scoop, we're having another dick measuring contest for Biden and Trump.
Good point.
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I'll be the 6-7th person to ask...
Who called him crazy for the Russian invasion prediction?
I should have written they have called his views crazy. I think you called me psychotic and basically a warmonger for believing we should be far more forceful and not give crap about Putin's threats. Kasparov tends to agree with me. The fact of the matter is everything we and NATO countries have done thus far is reactive to Putin's actions and moronic statements. But let's set this aside for a moment and talk about a potential scenario:
Assuming this drags out a month, or 2-3 weeks, and Putin decides to carpet bomb, gas people, or God forbid use some kind of nuclear weapon. We know his short-term goal at this point has to be to subjugate the Ukrainian people in any way possible. To me it's very plausible he will get more and more ruthless and kill as many civilians as he can. Then what? Do we and NATO just sit on our ass and say to ourselves....."well he didn't attack a NATO country?" What if he bombs Lviv and the radiation hits Poland ? Is that an attack on a NATO country?
I don't want to upset anyone here but I believe (and have believed since day 1) that stopping this now is a better option than waiting for this genocide to continue and the potential horrific aftermath of him controlling large parts of Ukraine and staying in power.
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Supporting direct conflict with Russia is psychotic, in my opinion.
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I should have written they have called his views crazy. I think you called me psychotic and basically a warmonger for believing we should be far more forceful and not give crap about Putin's threats. Kasparov tends to agree with me. The fact of the matter is everything we and NATO countries have done thus far is reactive to Putin's actions and moronic statements. But let's set this aside for a moment and talk about a potential scenario:
Assuming this drags out a month, or 2-3 weeks, and Putin decides to carpet bomb, gas people, or God forbid use some kind of nuclear weapon. We know his short-term goal at this point has to be to subjugate the Ukrainian people in any way possible. To me it's very plausible he will get more and more ruthless and kill as many civilians as he can. Then what? Do we and NATO just sit on our ass and say to ourselves....."well he didn't attack a NATO country?" What if he bombs Lviv and the radiation hits Poland ? Is that an attack on a NATO country?
I don't want to upset anyone here but I believe (and have believed since day 1) that stopping this now is a better option than waiting for this genocide to continue and the potential horrific aftermath of him controlling large parts of Ukraine and staying in power.
NATO has already said that radiation that blows into a NATO country constitutes an attack and will be grounds to invoke Article 5.
Still curious why you care about the relatively minor genocide in Ukraine more than the others being perpetrated worldwide.
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NATO has already said that radiation that blows into a NATO country constitutes an attack and will be grounds to invoke Article 5.
Still curious why you care about the relatively minor genocide in Ukraine more than the others being perpetrated worldwide.
I'm a caring person. I don'tl like minor genocides and the potential for destabilizing the world. It's fine to disagree but I never have been a fan of appeasement when it comes to scumbags. It upset me greatly as a child when we did nothing about Sierra Leone and Rwanda. It's not only the geopolitical ramifications Hards, I don't like homicidal maniacs.
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Poland bulking up, purchasing Abrams main battle tanks. I thought this comparison between the M1A1 and the Russian T-72, which is still the bulk of the Russian tanks, was quite interesting.
(https://preview.redd.it/mtwtamct1t821.jpg?auto=webp&s=101442557ee04573ec9212a890a8700fa471ccec)
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Poland bulking up, purchasing Abrams main battle tanks. I thought this comparison between the M1A1 and the Russian T-72, which is still the bulk of the Russian tanks, was quite interesting.
(https://preview.redd.it/mtwtamct1t821.jpg?auto=webp&s=101442557ee04573ec9212a890a8700fa471ccec)
Ok, that image does nothing other than prove that the M1 is bigger, and (not proven by the image) technically superior. But tanks are a funny antiquated thing. As proven by the Javelin missile - I don't know why any country would spend their money on a tank today.
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America in a nutshell...
Genocide in Bucha. Stories coming out that Mariupol may be much much worse. And on scoop, we're having another dick measuring contest for Biden and Trump.
Mugs and the Dentist keep bringing up August, but yeah it’s a “dick measuring contest.” 🙄
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Mugs and the Dentist keep bringing up August, but yeah it’s a “dick measuring contest.” 🙄
Especially when Russia was stockpiling troops and armament close to the Ukraine border as of Apr 1, 2021.
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Especially when Russia was stockpiling troops and armament close to the Ukraine border as of Apr 1, 2021.
Right. The idea that Russia put this together in a couple months because of Afghanistan is simply shaping world events to fit one’s American political narrative. It’s baffling.
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Especially when Russia was stockpiling troops and armament close to the Ukraine border as of Apr 1, 2021.
Fine. April 2021.
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I should have written they have called his views crazy. I think you called me psychotic and basically a warmonger for believing we should be far more forceful and not give crap about Putin's threats. Kasparov tends to agree with me. The fact of the matter is everything we and NATO countries have done thus far is reactive to Putin's actions and moronic statements. But let's set this aside for a moment and talk about a potential scenario:
Assuming this drags out a month, or 2-3 weeks, and Putin decides to carpet bomb, gas people, or God forbid use some kind of nuclear weapon. We know his short-term goal at this point has to be to subjugate the Ukrainian people in any way possible. To me it's very plausible he will get more and more ruthless and kill as many civilians as he can. Then what? Do we and NATO just sit on our ass and say to ourselves....."well he didn't attack a NATO country?" What if he bombs Lviv and the radiation hits Poland ? Is that an attack on a NATO country?
I don't want to upset anyone here but I believe (and have believed since day 1) that stopping this now is a better option than waiting for this genocide to continue and the potential horrific aftermath of him controlling large parts of Ukraine and staying in power.
Your poor thoughts on global conflicts are just as tired as your space bar.
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Ok, that image does nothing other than prove that the M1 is bigger, and (not proven by the image) technically superior. But tanks are a funny antiquated thing. As proven by the Javelin missile - I don't know why any country would spend their money on a tank today.
Oh, totally agree that tanks are obsolete against advanced anti-weaponry...which Russia clearly doesn't possess. If the conflict should spill over to a NATO country, however, the M1A1 is so superior to anything the Russians have, including the T-80, it would be a one-sided battle.
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Fine. April 2021.
And you think we should have done what?
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Short thread on taking out the railways to cut off resupply:
https://twitter.com/TrentTelenko/status/1511417219674161158
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He's more knowledgeable and obviously smarter than anyone here Hards.
Kasparov believes that the ancient civilizations, including the Sumerians, babylonians, ancient Egypt etc., all lived during the Middle Ages, and that modern historians have misdated those civilizations.
Brilliant Chess player, yes. Brilliant person...not so much.
As for him predicting this before everyone else. Pretty much the world has been predicting this for years, and for multiple presidents.
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Oh, totally agree that tanks are obsolete against advanced anti-weaponry...which Russia clearly doesn't possess. If the conflict should spill over to a NATO country, however, the M1A1 is so superior to anything the Russians have, including the T-80, it would be a one-sided battle.
A1? The *world* will never be in a tank battle again. And it's never really been a tank battle, that's just something that makes militaries feel good. But the A1 is 1980s technology. Weaponry to take out tanks is almost older than tanks themselves. Tanks can't keep up.
As I mentioned, the Javelin, a handled rocket can take out *any* modern tank from miles away. And that's not even mentioning the *cheap* airborne options. Watch this video, Javelins cost more than most Russian tanks, and we've been giving those away.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6COKC5ZU6gM
Poland and the Ukraine ain't buying any tanks, they have more obsolete versions of those from Russia than they could even use.
edit: anyone that thinks the Ukraine has been getting along "amazingly" without copious US militarily aid is smoking something
"Since February, the United States has provided the country with more than $2 billion in aid"
https://www.nbcphiladelphia.com/news/national-international/biden-admin-to-send-100m-in-javelin-missiles-to-ukraine/3199240/
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A1? The *world* will never be in a tank battle again. And it's never really been a tank battle, that's just something that makes militaries feel good. But the A1 is 1980s technology. Weaponry to take out tanks is almost older than tanks themselves. Tanks can't keep up.
As I mentioned, the Javelin, a handled rocket can take out *any* modern tank from miles away. And that's not even mentioning the *cheap* airborne options. Watch this video, Javelins cost more than most Russian tanks, and we've been giving those away.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6COKC5ZU6gM
Poland and the Ukraine ain't buying any tanks, they have more obsolete versions of those from Russia than they could even use.
edit: anyone that thinks the Ukraine has been getting along "amazingly" without copious US militarily aid is smoking something
"Since February, the United States has provided the country with more than $2 billion in aid"
https://www.nbcphiladelphia.com/news/national-international/biden-admin-to-send-100m-in-javelin-missiles-to-ukraine/3199240/
To expand on this, a Switchblade 600 costs around $70k. An M1 Abarams costs $6.21 million.
Tank warfare is dead, and the Russians weren't even doing it right. Those tank crews were meant to intimidate and speed rush land grabs.
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A1? The *world* will never be in a tank battle again. And it's never really been a tank battle, that's just something that makes militaries feel good. But the A1 is 1980s technology. Weaponry to take out tanks is almost older than tanks themselves. Tanks can't keep up.
As I mentioned, the Javelin, a handled rocket can take out *any* modern tank from miles away. And that's not even mentioning the *cheap* airborne options. Watch this video, Javelins cost more than most Russian tanks, and we've been giving those away.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6COKC5ZU6gM
Poland and the Ukraine ain't buying any tanks, they have more obsolete versions of those from Russia than they could even use.
edit: anyone that thinks the Ukraine has been getting along "amazingly" without copious US militarily aid is smoking something
"Since February, the United States has provided the country with more than $2 billion in aid"
https://www.nbcphiladelphia.com/news/national-international/biden-admin-to-send-100m-in-javelin-missiles-to-ukraine/3199240/
Sorry, should have said A2. My bad.
And while I agree with you that tanks are outdated against modern opponents, it appears that on the other side of NATO the only country that can qualify as modern is China.
And Poland disagrees with you about buying tanks:
https://www.defensenews.com/global/europe/2022/04/05/poland-signs-475-billion-abrams-tank-deal-as-russias-war-speeds-procurements/
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edit: anyone that thinks the Ukraine has been getting along "amazingly" without copious US militarily aid is smoking something
"Since February, the United States has provided the country with more than $2 billion in aid"
https://www.nbcphiladelphia.com/news/national-international/biden-admin-to-send-100m-in-javelin-missiles-to-ukraine/3199240/
Hey Muggsy, is February before August April?
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Sorry, should have said A2. My bad.
And while I agree with you that tanks are outdated against modern opponents, it appears that on the other side of NATO the only country that can qualify as modern is China.
And Poland disagrees with you about buying tanks:
https://www.defensenews.com/global/europe/2022/04/05/poland-signs-475-billion-abrams-tank-deal-as-russias-war-speeds-procurements/
Ah yes, the Poles, the dudes who rode horses into battle against German tanks in WW2.
They buy them because we sell them.
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And Poland disagrees with you about buying tanks:
https://www.defensenews.com/global/europe/2022/04/05/poland-signs-475-billion-abrams-tank-deal-as-russias-war-speeds-procurements/
Ah, well, ok. I guess they make excellent (but expensive) road blocks.
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Interesting article on the lack of professionalism in the Russian army and how the lack of clear strategic objectives are creating an atmosphere where brutality like we are seeing can flourish.
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/04/bucha-ukraine-bodies-russian-military-crimes/629485/
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Ah yes, the Poles, the dudes who rode horses into battle against German tanks in WW2.
LOL, yes, I was thinking of that story as well.
T-72s are the modern equivalent of horse cavalry.
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A1? The *world* will never be in a tank battle again. And it's never really been a tank battle, that's just something that makes militaries feel good. But the A1 is 1980s technology. Weaponry to take out tanks is almost older than tanks themselves. Tanks can't keep up.
As I mentioned, the Javelin, a handled rocket can take out *any* modern tank from miles away. And that's not even mentioning the *cheap* airborne options. Watch this video, Javelins cost more than most Russian tanks, and we've been giving those away.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6COKC5ZU6gM
Poland and the Ukraine ain't buying any tanks, they have more obsolete versions of those from Russia than they could even use.
edit: anyone that thinks the Ukraine has been getting along "amazingly" without copious US militarily aid is smoking something
"Since February, the United States has provided the country with more than $2 billion in aid"
https://www.nbcphiladelphia.com/news/national-international/biden-admin-to-send-100m-in-javelin-missiles-to-ukraine/3199240/
Battle of Kursk, perhaps?
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To expand on this, a Switchblade 600 costs around $70k. An M1 Abarams costs $6.21 million.
Tank warfare is dead, and the Russians weren't even doing it right. Those tank crews were meant to intimidate and speed rush land grabs.
Ukraine: A killing ground for Russian armor. Are tanks now obsolete?
https://news.yahoo.com/ukraine-a-killing-ground-for-russian-armor-are-tanks-now-obsolete-164327834.html
...."This has led some experts to say that warfare has changed, and that tanks and armored personnel carriers are now obsolete. “They are too expensive & are easily destroyed with manifold light anti-tank weapons or drones,” Anders Aslund, an expert on Russia, Ukraine and Eastern Europe, wrote on Twitter.
...One former British Army officer, now a defense military analyst, said people should be careful to “avoid drawing the wrong conclusions” on tanks. “Russia's disastrous tactics have been a terrible advertisement for tanks,” Nicholas Drummond wrote on Twitter. “No artillery support. No infantry support. No air support,” he said, referring to images showing destroyed Russian tanks. “This is not how combined arms tactics work in an era of multi-domain operations.”
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I love the 80's nostalgia. In homage to Red Dawn, Ukrainians have been painting WOLVERINES on dead Russian tanks.
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I love the 80's nostalgia. In homage to Red Dawn, Ukrainians have been painting WOLVERINES on dead Russian tanks.
I fear the Wagner Group is a lot harsher than the Cubans
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I love the 80's nostalgia. In homage to Red Dawn, Ukrainians have been painting WOLVERINES on dead Russian tanks.
(https://cimg6.ibsrv.net/gimg/www.flyertalk.com-vbulletin/820x1000/c68ae642_93e9_483a_8b50_9c7dfd6291f0_0b85117b34a0687c6d627d7bda03ea0cbfde5fe4.jpeg)
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No fly zone?
https://youtu.be/ZJv4rBT6Nl8
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Watching the news, there was back to back stories on:
1) Ukraine detaining the leader of an opposition party that is sympathetic to Russia. Charging him with treason and trying to do a prisoner swap. Story, told in a favorable way on how Ukraine is cracking down on Russian sympathizers.
2) Russia detaining a Putin opposition leader. Told from the perspective of how Russia is evil and refuses to allow dissent.
Not sure I can take the news seriously a lot of the time anymore. If one is wrong, so is the other. Do these types of things bother anyone else?
My opinion, is both are wrong. Dissent and opposition should be allowed, as long as it sticks to speech and official political discourse.
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Watching the news, there was back to back stories on:
1) Ukraine detaining the leader of an opposition party that is sympathetic to Russia. Charging him with treason and trying to do a prisoner swap. Story, told in a favorable way on how Ukraine is cracking down on Russian sympathizers.
2) Russia detaining a Putin opposition leader. Told from the perspective of how Russia is evil and refuses to allow dissent.
Not sure I can take the news seriously a lot of the time anymore. If one is wrong, so is the other. Do these types of things bother anyone else?
My opinion, is both are wrong. Dissent and opposition should be allowed, as long as it sticks to speech and official political discourse.
That's not news. That's propaganda.
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Whoa, Ukraine has sunk the flagship of the Russian Black Sea fleet.
Rob Lee
@RALee85
A Russian source is saying the Moskva has sunk and that the explosion was from a Ukrainian Neptun missile strike. Apparently, Ukraine flew a TB2 UCAV to distract the ship while it was targeted by the Neptun. The ship rolled onto its side after the strike.
Russia’s Black Sea flagship burns ‘after missile strike’
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/russia-black-sea-flagship-burns-ukraine-missile-strike-xp5lfxk6c
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Whoa, Ukraine has sunk the flagship of the Russian Black Sea fleet.
Rob Lee
@RALee85
A Russian source is saying the Moskva has sunk and that the explosion was from a Ukrainian Neptun missile strike. Apparently, Ukraine flew a TB2 UCAV to distract the ship while it was targeted by the Neptun. The ship rolled onto its side after the strike.
Russia’s Black Sea flagship burns ‘after missile strike’
.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/russia-black-sea-flagship-burns-ukraine-missile-strike-xp5lfxk6c
At first they came for the yachts, and the cruisers said nothing..
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FQQ2d4PXEAUP1kD?format=jpg&name=small)
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Watching the news, there was back to back stories on:
1) Ukraine detaining the leader of an opposition party that is sympathetic to Russia. Charging him with treason and trying to do a prisoner swap. Story, told in a favorable way on how Ukraine is cracking down on Russian sympathizers.
2) Russia detaining a Putin opposition leader. Told from the perspective of how Russia is evil and refuses to allow dissent.
Not sure I can take the news seriously a lot of the time anymore. If one is wrong, so is the other. Do these types of things bother anyone else?
My opinion, is both are wrong. Dissent and opposition should be allowed, as long as it sticks to speech and official political discourse.
My problem with this kind of reporting is it's lazy, backward looking and fails to inform. The American public is being cheated because too many reporters can't and won't do their job.
Putin invasion is evil There is no doubt. But it is important to understand the Russian perspective and why they did it. Not to condone them but only through understanding does one get a vision to get out of the mess we're in.
My travels in Ukraine and Belarus years ago taught me one thing -- the average American had no clue of what the other side was thinking, or why. If you look at Russia, you see a country that has been invaded, destroyed and rebuilt more times than any of us ever can imagine. In the Great Patriotic War from 1941 until 1945, cities of 500,000 persons were left with one or two buildings standing. Millions of people were killed for no other reason than the Nazis needed living space. Or, because they thought ill of the Jews.
Out of this came a collective paranoia that led to the occupation of much of Eastern Europe and huge military budgets that prevented reconstruction and investment in the civilian economy. Day to day living took a back seat to ensuring the Motherland was protected The bogeyman in this clash between good and evil was the United States.
Fast forward to today. Many of the old eastern bloc, including Poland, Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia are now members of NATO. Ukraine, which many in Russia see as part of Russia, has bellied up to the west and is trying to make passionate love to free market economies. Russia reacted the same way the United States did beginning in 1959 when Fidel Castro's Communist revolution gained control of Cuba. They invaded. The Russians were just more committed to Ukraine than the Kennedy Administration was to Cuba.
It's immaterial that Ukraine is corrupt and would be more so under Russian domination.
The takeaway: think like a paranoid Russian. The guy in charge is not a nut. He's genuinely concerned about the same thing 10 previous generations of Russian leaders have been afraid of -- invasion of the Motherland. It's why in the late 1990s, Belarusian troops were STILL guarding bridges against an American invasion.
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My problem with this kind of reporting is it's lazy, backward looking and fails to inform. The American public is being cheated because too many reporters can't and won't do their job.
Putin invasion is evil There is no doubt. But it is important to understand the Russian perspective and why they did it. Not to condone them but only through understanding does one get a vision to get out of the mess we're in.
My travels in Ukraine and Belarus years ago taught me one thing -- the average American had no clue of what the other side was thinking, or why. If you look at Russia, you see a country that has been invaded, destroyed and rebuilt more times than any of us ever can imagine. In the Great Patriotic War from 1941 until 1945, cities of 500,000 persons were left with one or two buildings standing. Millions of people were killed for no other reason than the Nazis needed living space. Or, because they thought ill of the Jews.
Out of this came a collective paranoia that led to the occupation of much of Eastern Europe and huge military budgets that prevented reconstruction and investment in the civilian economy. Day to day living took a back seat to ensuring the Motherland was protected The bogeyman in this clash between good and evil was the United States.
Fast forward to today. Many of the old eastern bloc, including Poland, Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia are now members of NATO. Ukraine, which many in Russia see as part of Russia, has bellied up to the west and is trying to make passionate love to free market economies. Russia reacted the same way the United States did beginning in 1959 when Fidel Castro's Communist revolution gained control of Cuba. They invaded. The Russians were just more committed to Ukraine than the Kennedy Administration was to Cuba.
It's immaterial that Ukraine is corrupt and would be more so under Russian domination.
The takeaway: think like a paranoid Russian. The guy in charge is not a nut. He's genuinely concerned about the same thing 10 previous generations of Russian leaders have been afraid of -- invasion of the Motherland. It's why in the late 1990s, Belarusian troops were STILL guarding bridges against an American invasion.
I don't think anyone disputes any of this so I have no idea why you said the bolded.
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My problem with this kind of reporting is it's lazy, backward looking and fails to inform. The American public is being cheated because too many reporters can't and won't do their job.
Putin invasion is evil There is no doubt. But it is important to understand the Russian perspective and why they did it. Not to condone them but only through understanding does one get a vision to get out of the mess we're in.
My travels in Ukraine and Belarus years ago taught me one thing -- the average American had no clue of what the other side was thinking, or why. If you look at Russia, you see a country that has been invaded, destroyed and rebuilt more times than any of us ever can imagine. In the Great Patriotic War from 1941 until 1945, cities of 500,000 persons were left with one or two buildings standing. Millions of people were killed for no other reason than the Nazis needed living space. Or, because they thought ill of the Jews.
Out of this came a collective paranoia that led to the occupation of much of Eastern Europe and huge military budgets that prevented reconstruction and investment in the civilian economy. Day to day living took a back seat to ensuring the Motherland was protected The bogeyman in this clash between good and evil was the United States.
Fast forward to today. Many of the old eastern bloc, including Poland, Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia are now members of NATO. Ukraine, which many in Russia see as part of Russia, has bellied up to the west and is trying to make passionate love to free market economies. Russia reacted the same way the United States did beginning in 1959 when Fidel Castro's Communist revolution gained control of Cuba. They invaded. The Russians were just more committed to Ukraine than the Kennedy Administration was to Cuba.
It's immaterial that Ukraine is corrupt and would be more so under Russian domination.
The takeaway: think like a paranoid Russian. The guy in charge is not a nut. He's genuinely concerned about the same thing 10 previous generations of Russian leaders have been afraid of -- invasion of the Motherland. It's why in the late 1990s, Belarusian troops were STILL guarding bridges against an American invasion.
Putin isn't concerned with an actual invasion of Russia, and if he is that is completely irrational. He sees what the world sees. Russian identity and culture is collapsing. Losing the entirety of Eastern Europe to Western European culture is unacceptable... mostly because he understand that the creep will continue into Russia itself.
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My problem with this kind of reporting is it's lazy, backward looking and fails to inform. The American public is being cheated because too many reporters can't and won't do their job.
Putin invasion is evil There is no doubt. But it is important to understand the Russian perspective and why they did it. Not to condone them but only through understanding does one get a vision to get out of the mess we're in.
My travels in Ukraine and Belarus years ago taught me one thing -- the average American had no clue of what the other side was thinking, or why. If you look at Russia, you see a country that has been invaded, destroyed and rebuilt more times than any of us ever can imagine. In the Great Patriotic War from 1941 until 1945, cities of 500,000 persons were left with one or two buildings standing. Millions of people were killed for no other reason than the Nazis needed living space. Or, because they thought ill of the Jews.
Out of this came a collective paranoia that led to the occupation of much of Eastern Europe and huge military budgets that prevented reconstruction and investment in the civilian economy. Day to day living took a back seat to ensuring the Motherland was protected The bogeyman in this clash between good and evil was the United States.
Fast forward to today. Many of the old eastern bloc, including Poland, Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia are now members of NATO. Ukraine, which many in Russia see as part of Russia, has bellied up to the west and is trying to make passionate love to free market economies. Russia reacted the same way the United States did beginning in 1959 when Fidel Castro's Communist revolution gained control of Cuba. They invaded. The Russians were just more committed to Ukraine than the Kennedy Administration was to Cuba.
It's immaterial that Ukraine is corrupt and would be more so under Russian domination.
The takeaway: think like a paranoid Russian. The guy in charge is not a nut. He's genuinely concerned about the same thing 10 previous generations of Russian leaders have been afraid of -- invasion of the Motherland. It's why in the late 1990s, Belarusian troops were STILL guarding bridges against an American invasion.
It's more than paranoia. It's a finely tuned system to blame outside forces, especially the US, for your failures as a country in terms of building an economy and a free society in which your citizens' lives improve. If the estimates are correct, Russia has an economy that is about 14% the size of the US, and a large part of that is oil and gas rather than manufacturing and services. The invasion of Russia by the Western countries after the USSR dissolved was an economic one as Russia was welcomed into joining in the benefits of a free economy and establishing ties with Europe and the US. Instead, thirty two years after the USSR was dissolved, Putin is dreaming of reviving the Russian Empire, starting with a transparent demand that NATO retreat to it's 1997 borders.
Warsaw Poland was razed by the Nazis as the Russians, who promised to help the Poles, watched from a safe distance. The Russians murdered 15,000-20,000 Polish officers at Katyn forest. Much of Europe was destroyed in WW11, and Russia forgot to leave Eastern Europe. Yet Western Europe recovered and thrived, as did Eastern Europe after the USSR finally withdrew. I see no reason that the Russians deserve any "understanding". I am sure that they have many mirrors and all they have to do to see where their problems are is to look straight into them.
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It's more than paranoia. It's a finely tuned system to blame outside forces, especially the US, for your failures as a country in terms of building an economy and a free society in which your citizens' lives improve. If the estimates are correct, Russia has an economy that is about 14% the size of the US, and a large part of that is oil and gas rather than manufacturing and services. The invasion of Russia by the Western countries after the USSR dissolved was an economic one as Russia was welcomed into joining in the benefits of a free economy and establishing ties with Europe and the US. Instead, thirty two years after the USSR was dissolved, Putin is dreaming of reviving the Russian Empire, starting with a transparent demand that NATO retreat to it's 1997 borders.
Warsaw Poland was razed by the Nazis as the Russians, who promised to help the Poles, watched from a safe distance. The Russians murdered 15,000-20,000 Polish officers at Katyn forest. Much of Europe was destroyed in WW11, and Russia forgot to leave Eastern Europe. Yet Western Europe recovered and thrived, as did Eastern Europe after the USSR finally withdrew. I see no reason that the Russians deserve any "understanding". I am sure that they have many mirrors and all they have to do to see where their problems are is to look straight into them.
The fight for the Russian soul has always been a battle of Asiatic versus Western Society, dating back to the revolution of 1917.
The mass of Russian society just wants to be left alone to rule over itself. I’m not sure there is anyway to truly unite the Russian people without exterior threats, real or imagined
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It's more than paranoia. It's a finely tuned system to blame outside forces, especially the US, for your failures as a country in terms of building an economy and a free society in which your citizens' lives improve. If the estimates are correct, Russia has an economy that is about 14% the size of the US, and a large part of that is oil and gas rather than manufacturing and services. The invasion of Russia by the Western countries after the USSR dissolved was an economic one as Russia was welcomed into joining in the benefits of a free economy and establishing ties with Europe and the US. Instead, thirty two years after the USSR was dissolved, Putin is dreaming of reviving the Russian Empire, starting with a transparent demand that NATO retreat to it's 1997 borders.
Warsaw Poland was razed by the Nazis as the Russians, who promised to help the Poles, watched from a safe distance. The Russians murdered 15,000-20,000 Polish officers at Katyn forest. Much of Europe was destroyed in WW11, and Russia forgot to leave Eastern Europe. Yet Western Europe recovered and thrived, as did Eastern Europe after the USSR finally withdrew. I see no reason that the Russians deserve any "understanding". I am sure that they have many mirrors and all they have to do to see where their problems are is to look straight into them.
Yesterday was the Katyn Forest day of remembrance. There is an incredibly graphic memorial in Jersey City that is worth a visit if you are in the area.
https://katyn.org.au/
(https://media-cdn.tripadvisor.com/media/photo-s/10/24/ac/93/photo0jpg.jpg)
(https://c1.staticflickr.com/5/4069/4543826468_922557c10f_b.jpg)
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The fight for the Russian soul has always been a battle of Asiatic versus Western Society, dating back to the revolution of 1917.
The mass of Russian society just wants to be left alone to rule over itself. I’m not sure there is anyway to truly unite the Russian people without exterior threats, real or imagined
They have had a centuries long history of insisting upon ruling over their neighbors, often being the invader rather than the "invadee". Now if they would just leave other countries to "rule over (themselves)", we would not be where we are today. They are hardly letting Ukraine "rule over itself" and did not allow their satellite countries rule over themselves during the 45 year long occupation. Regarding the "mass of Russian society" - they seem to overwhelmingly support Putin. It's possible that this support is not as deep as reported and the total control over the media that has been imposed is clearly a factor. Lastly, Russia straddles Europe and Asia. Both before and after the revolution, their soul had roots in both.
I'm usually in agreement with you on bball matters, but really disagree with this post.
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They have had a centuries long history of insisting upon ruling over their neighbors, often being the invader rather than the "invadee". Now if they would just leave other countries to "rule over (themselves)", we would not be where we are today. They are hardly letting Ukraine "rule over itself" and did not allow their satellite countries rule over themselves during the 45 year long occupation. Regarding the "mass of Russian society" - they seem to overwhelmingly support Putin. It's possible that this support is not as deep as reported and the total control over the media that has been imposed is clearly a factor. Lastly, Russia straddles Europe and Asia. Both before and after the revolution, their soul had roots in both.
I'm usually in agreement with you on bball matters, but really disagree with this post.
Russian Autocrats have certainly done what you say. The average Russian is beholden to the autocrat, sadly. I finished reading “ A People’s Tragedy” about the Russian Revolution and recommend it because it still holds true about some of its conclusions about modern Russian society.
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Russian Autocrats have certainly done what you say. The average Russian is beholden to the autocrat, sadly. I finished reading “ A People’s Tragedy” about the Russian Revolution and recommend it because it still holds true about some of its conclusions about modern Russian society.
Thanks for mentioning the book. I've read so many history books over the decades, especially about American and European 20th century history and will need to read this one. I taught 8th grade my first year out of Marquette (my sole teaching year) and remember posting a picture of a large, tightly wound spiral on the wall to represent history. I told my students to think of history as a continuum, not simply an enumeration of isolated events. I loved messing with their minds, pushing them to think things through and challenging them. One assignment was to come up with ideas on whether the Civil War could have been avoided, and if so, how? One girl started out her assignment with "If I was Lincoln, I would have just freaked out!"
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Warsaw Poland was razed by the Nazis as the Russians, who promised to help the Poles, watched from a safe distance. The Russians murdered 15,000-20,000 Polish officers at Katyn forest. Much of Europe was destroyed in WW11, and Russia forgot to leave Eastern Europe. Yet Western Europe recovered and thrived, as did Eastern Europe after the USSR finally withdrew. I see no reason that the Russians deserve any "understanding". I am sure that they have many mirrors and all they have to do to see where their problems are is to look straight into them.
The Push saying "Is waiting around like the Russians on the banks of the Vistula "
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Russian propagandists are simply mimicking what Fox News is saying.
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This is the Man!
https://www.yahoo.com/entertainment/malcolm-nance-leaves-msnbc-join-foreign-legion-fighting-ukraine-im-done-talking-062420157.html
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Russian propagandists are simply mimicking what Fox News is saying.
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And vice versa.
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This is the Man!
https://www.yahoo.com/entertainment/malcolm-nance-leaves-msnbc-join-foreign-legion-fighting-ukraine-im-done-talking-062420157.html
Based on his history, his books, his work as a contributor various places, about as surprising as Garcia ending up a Gopher.
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Hmmmmm. The U.S. "clarified" that we only sent plane parts, but someone may be contributing whole planes.
The Ukrainian Air Force Just Got Bigger. It Seems Someone Gave Kyiv More MiG-29s.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2022/04/19/the-ukrainian-air-force-just-got-bigger-it-seems-someone-gave-kyiv-more-mig-29s/?sh=456ee67b3c8b
"Kyiv’s air force has “more operable fighter aircraft than they had two weeks ago,” Kirby told reporters Tuesday.
Donations of airplanes, and airplane parts, made it possible. “I would just say, without getting into what other nations are providing, that they have received additional platforms and parts to be able to increase their fleet size,” Kirby said.
It’s not hard to guess what Kirby was referring to. The governments of Bulgaria, Poland and Slovakia weeks ago all signaled some degree of willingness to transfer to Ukraine old MiG-29s or spares for the same.
In 54 days, the Russians shot down no fewer than 15 Ukrainian jets that analysts visually can confirm. That verified total includes four MiG-29s. Actual losses undoubtedly are higher.
Shoot-downs don’t tell the whole story, of course. Russian forces also have attacked support facilities. On March 18, Russian cruise missiles damaged the State Aircraft Repair Plant in Lviv, in western Ukraine. That facility overhauls MiG-29s.
More vexing for the Ukrainians is the pilot problem. Kyiv clearly could source used fighters with just a few weeks of determined diplomacy. But it takes months to retrain formerly inactive pilots—and years to train up new ones.
Ukraine had too few MiG-29 pilots before they started dying in battle with the Russians. The shortfall surely is worse today."
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Here is a way you can contribute to Ukraine directly.
Ukraine Selling 'Russian Warship, Go F*** Yourself' Stamp
https://www.marinelink.com/news/ukraine-selling-russian-warship-go-f-496012
"Ukraine's national postal service Ukrposhta said it had been hit by a cyberattack on Friday after sales of a postage stamp depicting a Ukrainian soldier making a crude gesture to a Russian warship went online.
Queues formed to buy the stamp when it went on sale at the postal headquarters in Kyiv last week following the sinking of the flagship of Russia's Black Sea fleet. Kyiv said it had hit the cruiser Moskva with missiles. Russia said the ship sank while being towed in stormy seas after a fire caused by an explosion of ammunition."
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How many assassinations of oligarchs does Putin get before they organize to overthrow him.
The reason these people support Putin is because they are allowed to plunder at will - not necessarily because they agree with him. Is sacking the Russian populace enough of a reward if you’re not sure you are going to survive?
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Neurological issues may get him before the oligarchs do.
https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1518024361223110656
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After Putin is gone, no matter how that happens, then what? Who will his successor be, or probably more important, how will his successor rule?
Putin's rationale for the invasion is straight out of Hitler's prewar playbook. He had to rescue, liberate the Germans living in Czechoslovakia from oppression, so the Nazis occupied the country. After the war, it was proven that he ordered German soldiers dressed in Polish army uniforms to stage an "attack" on Germany near their border with camera crews positioned to film it all. Of course, the narrative was that Germany had to protect the motherland and crush Poland, beginning WW11. All media was strictly controlled, just like Russia's is now.
Until a solid majority of the Russian people turn against not only Putin but all that he stands for, the threats to Europe and much of the rest of the world will remain. The Russian people need to become like the post war Germans.
Meanwhile, there is only one country poised to win big time from this war-China. If Russia has to turn to China to bail it out from the sanctions, Russia may effectively become a subsidiary of China Inc. Maybe we will see Russia listed on the stock exchanges of the world.
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After Putin is gone, no matter how that happens, then what? Who will his successor be, or probably more important, how will his successor rule?
Putin's rationale for the invasion is straight out of Hitler's prewar playbook. He had to rescue, liberate the Germans living in Czechoslovakia from oppression, so the Nazis occupied the country. After the war, it was proven that he ordered German soldiers dressed in Polish army uniforms to stage an "attack" on Germany near their border with camera crews positioned to film it all. Of course, the narrative was that Germany had to protect the motherland and crush Poland, beginning WW11. All media was strictly controlled, just like Russia's is now.
Until a solid majority of the Russian people turn against not only Putin but all that he stands for, the threats to Europe and much of the rest of the world will remain. The Russian people need to become like the post war Germans.
Meanwhile, there is only one country poised to win big time from this war-China. If Russia has to turn to China to bail it out from the sanctions, Russia may effectively become a subsidiary of China Inc. Maybe we will see Russia listed on the stock exchanges of the world.
Not disagreeing with you, but wasn't that our playbook in Iraq also. We needed to liberate the people from the oppression of Saddam, and then manufactured evidence of WMDs. Even the first Iraq war, we first told Saddam we would do nothing regarding Kuwait, then fabricated evidence of atrocities in Kuwait.
Pretty much every nation is guilty of false narratives in every war of aggression.
Wars are terrible. What is happening in Ukraine is an atrocity. But it is far from unusual in terms of historical context.
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Not disagreeing with you, but wasn't that our playbook in Iraq also. We needed to liberate the people from the oppression of Saddam, and then manufactured evidence of WMDs. Even the first Iraq war, we first told Saddam we would do nothing regarding Kuwait, then fabricated evidence of atrocities in Kuwait.
Pretty much every nation is guilty of false narratives in every war of aggression.
Wars are terrible. What is happening in Ukraine is an atrocity. But it is far from unusual in terms of historical context.
Much different situation from a geopolitical standpoint. Scoop Snoop's analysis is spot-on.
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Much different situation from a geopolitical standpoint. Scoop Snoop's analysis is spot-on.
I guess, if you think that Europe matters, and the Middle East and it's people are just pawns...then sure.
His analysis is right though regarding China. China is winning. Everyone else is losing.
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I guess, if you think that Europe matters, and the Middle East and it's people are just pawns...then sure.
His analysis is right though regarding China. China is winning. Everyone else is losing.
No. And if it were up to me we wouldn't allow genocides but as you know we did nothing in Rwanda, Sierra Leone, Darfur, etc. It's about the overall implications of Russian genocide and expansion.
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Not disagreeing with you, but wasn't that our playbook in Iraq also. We needed to liberate the people from the oppression of Saddam, and then manufactured evidence of WMDs. Even the first Iraq war, we first told Saddam we would do nothing regarding Kuwait, then fabricated evidence of atrocities in Kuwait.
Pretty much every nation is guilty of false narratives in every war of aggression.
Wars are terrible. What is happening in Ukraine is an atrocity. But it is far from unusual in terms of historical context.
Iraq: Just as Lincoln changed the rationale of the Civil War from preserving the union to ending slavery when he needed to keep the public committed to the war ( not to mention having an opportunity embarrass Britain when their recognition of the Confederacy was still a very real possibility ), Bush changed the rationale from WMD to Iraqi Freedom. The intelligence regarding WMD was provided in large part by the man who eventually took over Iraq after we invaded. How convenient! The "manufactured evidence" was provided by Iraqis. It was not properly vetted by American Intelligence as it most certainly should have been.
Kuwait: We bombed the lining crap out of Kuwait. Where are you coming up with the narrative that we told Saddam we would do nothing? I hired many employees from Refugee Resettlement in Richmond. One man from Kuwait apparently suffered from PSTD. When planes were rerouted from the airport to directly over our building due to bad weather, he totally freaked out, scrambled under a work table, shaking. My guess is that we actually did more than "nothing". I can provide many more war stories from my employees. Just name the war or conflict-Bosnia, Iraq, Kuwait, Afghanistan, Viet Nam, massacres in African countries, etc. and I will provide their horror stories for you. While I never went through anything like they did, I have been brought almost to tears hearing their stories.
Every nation and war: Finally, something that we agree upon, but in vastly different measures.
1) Scale I read your post to mean that we are/have been really no better than that Russians since you stated your thoughts without qualification or context. To state that America and our allies have never, been guilty of crimes in war is simply naive. There are several significant differences though between what we have done and what Russia is doing. They have "bravely" targeted schools, hospitals, apartment buildings, theaters used as shelters with 'CHILDREN" written in huge letters in a plea to be spared. They have massacred a huge number (total to be determined) of civilians in Bucha. Here's your opportunity to insert "Oh yeah? What about the My Lai massacre? Horrible? Hell yes! Note that Lieutenant Calley was not congratulated on his bravery by our president. He was court martialed and held in utter contempt by the American public. Contrast that with Putin's and many Russians pride in the butchery. Oh, let's remember the word scale. We have not innocent in our military activities, but what I see as your equivalency (again, you failed to qualify your remarks, so I'm running with my take) is what really set me off.
2) After the war Since the thread is about war in Europe, let's revisit what happened after Germany surrendered. Russia: stayed for 45 years as an uninvited guest in Eastern and Central European countries. Crushed two revolts-Hungary in 1956 and Czechoslovakia in 1968. Stole whatever they wanted from those countries. They even disassembled factories and bridges in Germany and other countries and brought the materials to Russia. USA: Spent a bizillion (example of MU 82's math) dollars via the Marshall Plan to rebuild Europe. Founded NATO and provided much of the cost, training and other resources.
So much for equivalency.
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No. And if it were up to me we wouldn't allow genocides but as you know we did nothing in Rwanda, Sierra Leone, Darfur, etc. It's about the overall implications of Russian genocide and expansion.
Russia a dump, you're way too worried about a country that is backwards. This isn't the USSR of the 50s.
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As suspected, the U.S. has been sharing targeting information with Ukraine, both incoming and outgoing. Meanwhile, the Putin wing continues to mouth Russia's talking points for them.
U.S. intel helped Ukraine protect air defenses, shoot down Russian plane carrying hundreds of troops
https://news.yahoo.com/u-intel-helped-ukraine-protect-160006854.html
Rand Paul echoes Putin's talking points on Ukraine while arguing with Blinken over Russia's motives for invading
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/rand-paul-echoes-putin-s-talking-points-on-ukraine-while-arguing-with-blinken-over-russia-s-motives-for-invading/ar-AAWCUVj?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=dae7c60483a7489b9d9fa5503234e22e
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As suspected, the U.S. has been sharing targeting information with Ukraine, both incoming and outgoing. Meanwhile, the Putin wing continues to mouth Russia's talking points for them.
U.S. intel helped Ukraine protect air defenses, shoot down Russian plane carrying hundreds of troops
https://news.yahoo.com/u-intel-helped-ukraine-protect-160006854.html
Rand Paul echoes Putin's talking points on Ukraine while arguing with Blinken over Russia's motives for invading
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/rand-paul-echoes-putin-s-talking-points-on-ukraine-while-arguing-with-blinken-over-russia-s-motives-for-invading/ar-AAWCUVj?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=dae7c60483a7489b9d9fa5503234e22e
Which was the immediately decried by Kinzinger and others. Not like it was some agreed party chorus. It sounds more like Rand Paul being a moron while trying to be partisan and pedantic
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Rand-ian
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Kinzinger, the guy the GOP hates? If you think Rand is an isolated case you are mistaken. But, that's the end of my opinion, I'll try to keep the thread clean.
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Which was the immediately decried by Kinzinger and others. Not like it was some agreed party chorus. It sounds more like Rand Paul being a moron while trying to be partisan and pedantic
Do you believe Adam Kinzinger is archetypal of today's Republican member of Congress?
Or to put it another way, on a scale of Kinzinger to Taylor Greene, where do you think most House Republicans fall these days?
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Rand Paul's stunt is gold to Putin, but Biden's statements that Putin needs to go combined with calling him a war criminal, butcher, (all very true) and whatever else he has said serve only to solidify the support of the Russian people behind Putin. Anti-war protests in Russia have been smashed, but if there was any chance they would become so widespread like they were in 1991 when an estimated 500,000 protestors brought down the government, I think Biden, like Paul, has handed Putin a gift by running his mouth. Add to that Blinken's and Austin's stating that our goal is to weaken Russia (again, true, but why say it publicly?) and Russians will rally behind Putin even more. Biden not only at least approved of their statements in advance but, I believe, more than likely instructed them to make them.
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Rand Paul's stunt is gold to Putin, but Biden's statements that Putin needs to go combined with calling him a war criminal, butcher, (all very true) and whatever else he has said serve only to solidify the support of the Russian people behind Putin. Anti-war protests in Russia have been smashed, but if there was any chance they would become so widespread like they were in 1991 when an estimated 500,000 protestors brought down the government, I think Biden, like Paul, has handed Putin a gift by running his mouth. Add to that Blinken's and Austin's stating that our goal is to weaken Russia (again, true, but why say it publicly?) and Russians will rally behind Putin even more. Biden not only at least approved of their statements in advance but, I believe, more than likely instructed them to make them.
You say those things to rally EU countries and other allies, and to show strength.
I doubt any of those statements will have any real affect on the Russian people; they get all their news filtered through Putin, anyway.
It's far worse that we have vocal Putin sympathizers in "leadership" positions within our country.
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Rand Paul's stunt is gold to Putin, but Biden's statements that Putin needs to go combined with calling him a war criminal, butcher, (all very true) and whatever else he has said serve only to solidify the support of the Russian people behind Putin. Anti-war protests in Russia have been smashed, but if there was any chance they would become so widespread like they were in 1991 when an estimated 500,000 protestors brought down the government, I think Biden, like Paul, has handed Putin a gift by running his mouth. Add to that Blinken's and Austin's stating that our goal is to weaken Russia (again, true, but why say it publicly?) and Russians will rally behind Putin even more. Biden not only at least approved of their statements in advance but, I believe, more than likely instructed them to make them.
Yeah, I think Biden's comments, directly or through his Cabinet, have a near zero effect on the level of support for Putin in Russia. As 82 said, they are for the consumption of the rest of the world. Russians are only getting what Putin wants them to hear through his tightly controlled media.
Rally your people to war and control all media--it's been Putin's playbook (and autocrats everywhere) forever.
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You say those things to rally EU countries and other allies, and to show strength.
I doubt any of those statements will have any real affect on the Russian people; they get all their news filtered through Putin, anyway.
It's far worse that we have vocal Putin sympathizers in "leadership" positions within our country.
1) EU countries, especially the ones that suffered through 45 years of Russian occupation, do not need an American president to rally them. They get it. They are far, far ahead of us on this. Let's not insult their intelligence. Notice that Macron, in his desperate attempt(s) to influence blood thirsty Putin, has refrained from name calling or defining the goal as weakening Russia (although it most certainly is).
2) The news filtered through Putin includes Biden's remarks and our Secretaries of State and Defense defining our goal as the weakening of Russia. How can that NOT draw them rally behind their leader? There are good reasons why his handlers try to keep Biden to stick to statements prepared by them.
3) I agree that the sympathizers do a lot of damage, especially when our former president glowingly admired Putin's "genius" and "savvy" soon after the initial invasion. To put it mildly, I am not a supporter of either party, but so far the Republicans have been the offenders. Give the Squawks Squad a little more time and I am sure they will chime in.
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1) EU countries, especially the ones that suffered through 45 years of Russian occupation, do not need an American president to rally them. They get it. They are far, far ahead of us on this. Let's not insult their intelligence. Notice that Macron, in his desperate attempt(s) to influence blood thirsty Putin, has refrained from name calling or defining the goal as weakening Russia (although it most certainly is).
Such comments aren't intended to "rally" those countries. They're intended to show them they we get it, we understand the existential threat they face from Putin and that we have their backs. And that, frankly, is something very unlike what they heard from the previous administration that consistently sucked up to Putin and repeatedly threatened to abandon its NATO allies.
You want he U.S. government to take its foreign policy cues from Macron and the French? That's a new one.
2) The news filtered through Putin includes Biden's remarks and our Secretaries of State and Defense defining our goal as the weakening of Russia. How can that NOT draw them rally behind their leader? There are good reasons why his handlers try to keep Biden to stick to statements prepared by them.
Influencing the Russian population - which, in many ways, is beyond influence - is a far, far less important goal than influencing our allies in Europe.
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Such comments aren't intended to "rally" those countries. They're intended to show them they we get it, we understand the existential threat they face from Putin and that we have their backs. And that, frankly, is something very unlike what they heard from the previous administration that consistently sucked up to Putin and repeatedly threatened to abandon its NATO allies.
You want he U.S. government to take its foreign policy cues from Macron and the French? That's a new one.
Influencing the Russian population - which, in many ways, is beyond influence - is a far, far less important goal than influencing our allies in Europe.
Diplomats and national leaders are supposed to watch what they say very carefully. It's part of their job.
Agree on the bolded, no question.
The Russian population was influenced enough in 1991 to put 500,000 people on the streets and force the military government out. I would like to see a repeat performance. Likely? No. Possible? Yes. We have already influenced our allies in Europe. I would like to see a squeeze play on Putin.
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The Russian population was influenced enough in 1991 to put 500,000 people on the streets and force the military government out. I would like to see a repeat performance. Likely? No. Possible? Yes. We have already influenced our allies in Europe. I would like to see a squeeze play on Putin.
The Russian media in 1991 cannot be compared to the 2022 Russian media under Putin. I'd wager that was the reason 500,000 were able to protest then.
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The Russian population was influenced enough in 1991 to put 500,000 people on the streets and force the military government out. I would like to see a repeat performance. Likely? No. Possible? Yes. We have already influenced our allies in Europe. I would like to see a squeeze play on Putin.
While a general uprising from within would be optimal, I think the chances are virtually zero after more than two decades of Putin tightening his grip. As we saw early, protests were put down quickly and effectively. I don't believe Putin would allow mass protests of the magnitude necessary to force him out, nor am I sure there is enough dissent to make it possible.
A palace coup seems more likely, and even that is wishing upon a star IMO unless things get bad economically, really bad.
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My fear is that Putin is terminally ill with a short life time window. I know that if someone is evil, that would be a typical excellent scenario.
In Putin's case, he may have a "What do I care, I won't be around" mentality.
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While a general uprising from within would be optimal, I think the chances are virtually zero after more than two decades of Putin tightening his grip. As we saw early, protests were put down quickly and effectively. I don't believe Putin would allow mass protests of the magnitude necessary to force him out, nor am I sure there is enough dissent to make it possible.
A palace coup seems more likely, and even that is wishing upon a star IMO unless things get bad economically, really bad.
That was my take earlier in this thread. It will only happen when the oligarchs feel enough pain. And even that is a very high threshold. The devil you know is better than the devil you don't. Each would have to weigh their place in a new regime to be allowed to continue their corruption under a new devil.
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The Russian media in 1991 cannot be compared to the 2022 Russian media under Putin. I'd wager that was the reason 500,000 were able to protest then.
And then, maybe Putin does not have total control aftercall.
https://www.cnn.com/2022/03/12/tech/russia-internet-censorship-circumvention
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The Russian population was influenced enough in 1991 to put 500,000 people on the streets and force the military government out. I would like to see a repeat performance. Likely? No. Possible? Yes. We have already influenced our allies in Europe. I would like to see a squeeze play on Putin.
Russia in 1991 was in a very different place than it is today, and the conditions/motivations that led to those protests don't really exist in contemporary Russia.
Remember, those protests came about in response to a coup by hardliners, against a popular regime that had given the population its first taste of freedom - particularly economic and travel freedom. The people who rose up then didn't want to lose those freedoms. Flash forward to today, and those freedoms remain largely intact. Putin isn't trying to take it away from them.
Political freedom is another matter, of course, but the Russians have never truly had that.
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Russia in 1991 was in a very different place than it is today, and the conditions/motivations that led to those protests don't really exist in contemporary Russia.
Remember, those protests came about in response to a coup by hardliners, against a popular regime that had given the population its first taste of freedom - particularly economic and travel freedom. The people who rose up then didn't want to lose those freedoms. Flash forward to today, and those freedoms remain largely intact. Putin isn't trying to take it away from them.
Political freedom is another matter, of course, but the Russians have never truly had that.
And many Russians miss the day where they were considered a super-power.
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There are obsolete tanks, and then there are the T-72s. Check out the pictures.
Russia's tanks in Ukraine have a 'jack-in-the-box' design flaw. And the West has known about it since the Gulf war
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/russia-s-tanks-in-ukraine-have-a-jack-in-the-box-design-flaw-and-the-west-has-known-about-it-since-the-gulf-war/ar-AAWFspU
Hundreds of Russian tanks are thought to have been destroyed since Moscow launched its offensive, with British Defense Secretary Ben Wallace on Monday estimating it had lost as many as 580.
But Moscow's problems go beyond the sheer number of tanks it has lost. Experts say battlefield images show Russian tanks are suffering from a defect that Western militaries have known about for decades and refer to as the "jack-in-the-box effect." Moscow, they say, should have seen the problem coming.
The problem relates to how the tanks' ammunition is stored. Unlike modern Western tanks, Russian ones carry multiple shells within their turrets. This makes them highly vulnerable as even an indirect hit can start a chain reaction that explodes their entire ammunition store of up to 40 shells.
The resulting shockwave can be enough to blast the tank's turret as high as a two-story building, as can be seen in a recent video on social media.
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There are obsolete tanks, and then there are the T-72s. Check out the pictures.
Russia's tanks in Ukraine have a 'jack-in-the-box' design flaw. And the West has known about it since the Gulf war
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/russia-s-tanks-in-ukraine-have-a-jack-in-the-box-design-flaw-and-the-west-has-known-about-it-since-the-gulf-war/ar-AAWFspU
Hundreds of Russian tanks are thought to have been destroyed since Moscow launched its offensive, with British Defense Secretary Ben Wallace on Monday estimating it had lost as many as 580.
But Moscow's problems go beyond the sheer number of tanks it has lost. Experts say battlefield images show Russian tanks are suffering from a defect that Western militaries have known about for decades and refer to as the "jack-in-the-box effect." Moscow, they say, should have seen the problem coming.
The problem relates to how the tanks' ammunition is stored. Unlike modern Western tanks, Russian ones carry multiple shells within their turrets. This makes them highly vulnerable as even an indirect hit can start a chain reaction that explodes their entire ammunition store of up to 40 shells.
The resulting shockwave can be enough to blast the tank's turret as high as a two-story building, as can be seen in a recent video on social media.
Appreciate the extremely informative article. The invasion has showcased Russian conventional military weaknesses that include logistics, training, morale etc. on top of equipment/weapon design flaws discovered 30 years ago. The stalled convoy enroute to Kviv was very revealing. Their nuclear force, however, remains a huge concern. Putin does not make idle threats.
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Appreciate the extremely informative article. The invasion has showcased Russian conventional military weaknesses that include logistics, training, morale etc. on top of equipment/weapon design flaws discovered 30 years ago. The stalled convoy enroute to Kviv was very revealing. Their nuclear force, however, remains a huge concern. Putin does not make idle threats.
He literally does. Every single day.
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https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/apr/27/russia-doubles-fossil-fuel-revenues-since-invasion-of-ukraine-began (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/apr/27/russia-doubles-fossil-fuel-revenues-since-invasion-of-ukraine-began)
Despite sanctions, Russia is actually bringing in more money.
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European Union countries are likely to approve as early as next week a phased embargo on Russian oil, officials say, sealing a long-postponed measure that has divided the bloc’s members and highlighted their dependence on Russian energy sources.
https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/04/29/world/ukraine-russia-war-news/europe-ratchets-up-preparation-for-russian-oil-embargo-next-week?smid=url-copy
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I have concerns that if this doesn't wrap up soon (and it doesn't seem like it is). There will be massive world wide food shortages. Wheat... but also very importantly fertilizer is a major export of the area. Without the fertilizer... AND the wheat... expect famine.
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I have concerns that if this doesn't wrap up soon (and it doesn't seem like it is). There will be massive world wide food shortages. Wheat... but also very importantly fertilizer is a major export of the area. Without the fertilizer... AND the wheat... expect famine.
Biden's fault.
Oh, and it's cloudy and windy today. Also Biden's fault.
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I have concerns that if this doesn't wrap up soon (and it doesn't seem like it is). There will be massive world wide food shortages. Wheat... but also very importantly fertilizer is a major export of the area. Without the fertilizer... AND the wheat... expect famine.
Between this, and the shutdowns in China, inflation certainly isn't slowing down soon.
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https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas
If you are willing to read this long article in its entirety, I believe you will admit that it was well worth your time. It is very well written and gets into the minds and attitudes of the Russian soldiers as well as Russian society. It concludes on a hopeful note that is realistic.
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I have concerns that if this doesn't wrap up soon (and it doesn't seem like it is). There will be massive world wide food shortages. Wheat... but also very importantly fertilizer is a major export of the area. Without the fertilizer... AND the wheat... expect famine.
This will drag on for a while. The US/NATO see this as an excellent opportunity to keep Russia in a protracted military engagement without losing any US/NATO lives. The strategy is to pump Ukraine full of weapons and aid money indefinitely. I haven't seen anyone of significance on the US/NATO side even mention a negotiated peace agreement as an option.
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This will drag on for a while. The US/NATO see this as an excellent opportunity to keep Russia in a protracted military engagement without losing any US/NATO lives. The strategy is to pump Ukraine full of weapons and aid money indefinitely. I haven't seen anyone of significance on the US/NATO side even mention a negotiated peace agreement as an option.
Ding...Ding. We have a winner. All of this is political theatre. The west (politicians) doesn't really care about the lives being lost in Ukraine, they view this as an opportunity to bleed Russia dry.
The best way to do that is a long protracted war that hurts everyone...except those in charge in the wealthy elites.
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p6sCsOdqXQw
Some of you folks might be interested. Great information about Taiwan and China and what an invasion would entail and why.
The guy makes amazing videos.
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This will drag on for a while. The US/NATO see this as an excellent opportunity to keep Russia in a protracted military engagement without losing any US/NATO lives. The strategy is to pump Ukraine full of weapons and aid money indefinitely. I haven't seen anyone of significance on the US/NATO side even mention a negotiated peace agreement as an option.
You make an excellent point, but we shouldn't make the mistake that is is just one or the other - bleeding Russia dry OR humanitarian concerns.
Don't forget that while we are bleeding Russia dry, Ukraine isn't the only country suffering. All of Europe suffers with higher costs for both refugees and for military costs as Putin makes threats against European nations.
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You make an excellent point, but we shouldn't make the mistake that is is just one or the other - bleeding Russia dry OR humanitarian concerns.
Don't forget that while we are bleeding Russia dry, Ukraine isn't the only country suffering. All of Europe suffers with higher costs for both refugees and for military costs as Putin makes threats against European nations.
Right. I think this strategy is actually quite cruel. Using Ukrainian lives as cannon fodder in a war of attrition. I knew the MIC would be pretty pissed about the Afghanistan withdrawal, but I really underestimated how quickly they could pivot to ratchet up a new weapons spending spree in another part of the world. Unfortunately, there appears to be wide bipartisan support from the political and media class for continuing this proxy war indefinitely. No one seems particularly concerned about the possibility of nuclear war right now, which I guess is a silver lining.
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Right. I think this strategy is actually quite cruel. Using Ukrainian lives as cannon fodder in a war of attrition. I knew the MIC would be pretty pissed about the Afghanistan withdrawal, but I really underestimated how quickly they could pivot to ratchet up a new weapons spending spree in another part of the world. Unfortunately, there appears to be wide bipartisan support from the political and media class for continuing this proxy war indefinitely. No one seems particularly concerned about the possibility of nuclear war right now, which I guess is a silver lining.
Proxy war > actual war
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Right. I think this strategy is actually quite cruel. Using Ukrainian lives as cannon fodder in a war of attrition. I knew the MIC would be pretty pissed about the Afghanistan withdrawal, but I really underestimated how quickly they could pivot to ratchet up a new weapons spending spree in another part of the world. Unfortunately, there appears to be wide bipartisan support from the political and media class for continuing this proxy war indefinitely. No one seems particularly concerned about the possibility of nuclear war right now, which I guess is a silver lining.
So are you saying you are against aiding Ukraine?
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Right. I think this strategy is actually quite cruel. Using Ukrainian lives as cannon fodder in a war of attrition. I knew the MIC would be pretty pissed about the Afghanistan withdrawal, but I really underestimated how quickly they could pivot to ratchet up a new weapons spending spree in another part of the world. Unfortunately, there appears to be wide bipartisan support from the political and media class for continuing this proxy war indefinitely. No one seems particularly concerned about the possibility of nuclear war right now, which I guess is a silver lining.
But unless the Ukraine agrees to negotiate away parts of their territory in return for peace, I don't know what the alternative is.
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So are you saying you are against aiding Ukraine?
Quite the contrary. I think the best way to help Ukraine would be negotiating a peace agreement. Our current strategy is just prolonging the conflict which ensures more lives lost and further destruction of Ukraine.
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But unless the Ukraine agrees to negotiate away parts of their territory in return for peace, I don't know what the alternative is.
That was the inevitable end to this conflict before the war even broke out. This has been building for 8+ years. Ukraine isn't in much of a position to negotiate anything since they are completely reliant on US/NATO dollars and weapons. Maybe after a couple years they can push Russia back while the West supplies them with money and weapons, but at that point they'd just be ruling over a pile of rubble and dead bodies.
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nm
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Proxy war > actual war
For what, your peace of mind? It's an actual war for the people in the war zone.
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p6sCsOdqXQw
Some of you folks might be interested. Great information about Taiwan and China and what an invasion would entail and why.
The guy makes amazing videos.
Saw this when it came out. Couldn't figure out where to post here.
Very good videos
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That was the inevitable end to this conflict before the war even broke out. This has been building for 8+ years. Ukraine isn't in much of a position to negotiate anything since they are completely reliant on US/NATO dollars and weapons. Maybe after a couple years they can push Russia back while the West supplies them with money and weapons, but at that point they'd just be ruling over a pile of rubble and dead bodies.
A peace agreement would be nice. However, the only way to achieve that, it would seem, is for Ukraine to give up parts of their country. You believe that they should do that? If so, it negs the question: should larger, more powerful countries be allowed to take other parts of smaller, less powerful countries?
Ukraine and the Ukrainians don't seem the slightest bit interested in that deal. As long as they are willing to fight, I think we continue to support them.
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Ukraine and the Ukrainians don't seem the slightest bit interested in that deal. As long as they are willing to fight, I think we continue to support them.
Well given the evidence (increasing daily) of the brutal Russian occupation tactics, I'm shocked that the Ukrainians feel that way. Given that, a peace deal is going to be hard to deliver.
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Quite the contrary. I think the best way to help Ukraine would be negotiating a peace agreement. Our current strategy is just prolonging the conflict which ensures more lives lost and further destruction of Ukraine.
You assume that Russia is interested in a deal. Perhaps that will come, but their actions say otherwise.
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A peace agreement would be nice. However, the only way to achieve that, it would seem, is for Ukraine to give up parts of their country. You believe that they should do that? If so, it negs the question: should larger, more powerful countries be allowed to take other parts of smaller, less powerful countries?
Ukraine and the Ukrainians don't seem the slightest bit interested in that deal. As long as they are willing to fight, I think we continue to support them.
I would give up Texas and Florida in a heartbeat if someone even just gave me a dirty look.
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I would give up Texas and Florida in a heartbeat if someone even just gave me a dirty look.
I get both the sentiment and the jest.
But out of curiosity. If Mexico was willing (and able) to lay Texas and New Mexico to ruin, as well as the rest of the continental US, killing up to 1M Americans and leveling much of the infrastructure, housing, and business in the US, and they offered a peace deal before hand that if we give them back Texas and New Mexico, would you take the deal?
What if, no matter what, we were still going to lose Texas and New Mexico. So either way they are gone, but if we negotiate and sign the deal, the rest doesn't happen?
What would you do?
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For what, your peace of mind? It's an actual war for the people in the war zone.
Obviously. A wider conflict is stupid. The US has been waging proxy wars worldwide since the 40s.
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Quite the contrary. I think the best way to help Ukraine would be negotiating a peace agreement. Our current strategy is just prolonging the conflict which ensures more lives lost and further destruction of Ukraine.
And Russia. Which is the actual goal.
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I get both the sentiment and the jest.
But out of curiosity. If Mexico was willing (and able) to lay Texas and New Mexico to ruin, as well as the rest of the continental US, killing up to 1M Americans and leveling much of the infrastructure, housing, and business in the US, and they offered a peace deal before hand that if we give them back Texas and New Mexico, would you take the deal?
What if, no matter what, we were still going to lose Texas and New Mexico. So either way they are gone, but if we negotiate and sign the deal, the rest doesn't happen?
What would you do?
I think you don’t quite understand the concept of a joke.
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Interesting thread on one person's (informed) view of the current state of the war:
https://twitter.com/michaeldweiss/status/1521163752296660992
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I think you don’t quite understand the concept of a joke.
Lot's of stress these days makes forgetful a dull boy.
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Lot's of stress these days makes forgetful a dull boy.
Yeah. Tell me about it. Life used to be a lot easier.
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Interesting thread on one person's (informed) view of the current state of the war:
https://twitter.com/michaeldweiss/status/1521163752296660992
Thanks for this, pretty interesting. I don't know much about him, but thanks!
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I've found analysis for retired US General Hertling to be very interesting for his Ukraine analysis.
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https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/kremlin-says-no-agreement-reached-possible-meeting-between-putin-pope-francis-2022-05-04/?utm_term=OZY&utm_campaign=pdb&utm_content=Thursday_05.05.22&utm_source=Sailthru&utm_medium=email
LONDON, May 4 (Reuters) - The Russian Orthodox Church scolded Pope Francis on Wednesday for using the wrong tone after he urged Patriarch Kirill not to become the Kremlin's "altar boy", cautioning the Vatican that such remarks would hurt dialogue between the churches.
Francis told Italy's Corriere Della Sera newspaper that Kirill, who has given the Ukraine war his backing, "cannot become [President Vladimir] Putin's altar boy". read more
The Russian Orthodox Church said it was regrettable that a month and a half after Francis and Kirill, the patriarch of Moscow and All Russia, had spoken directly, the pope had adopted such a tone.
"Pope Francis chose an incorrect tone to convey the content of this conversation," the Moscow Patriarchy said, though it did not explicitly mention the "altar boy" comment.
"Such statements are unlikely to contribute to the establishment of a constructive dialogue between the Roman Catholic and Russian Orthodox Churches, which is especially necessary at the present time."
Kirill, 75, a close ally of Putin, sees the war as a bulwark against a West he considers decadent, particularly over the acceptance of homosexuality.
The problem here isn't that this "man of God" is a Putin apologist who supports war crimes against Ukrainians and who would gladly have LGBTQ people burned at the stake. No, the problem is the pope's "tone."
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Thread re the video from Chinese TV showing one of the jack-in-the-box tank turrets getting blown and speculation this is part of a Ukrainian insurgency given where it happened.
https://twitter.com/ChrisO_wiki/status/1524448245539393539
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Good to see Finland, which shares a long stretch of border with Russia, finally deciding to join NATO.
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https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/kremlin-says-no-agreement-reached-possible-meeting-between-putin-pope-francis-2022-05-04/?utm_term=OZY&utm_campaign=pdb&utm_content=Thursday_05.05.22&utm_source=Sailthru&utm_medium=email
LONDON, May 4 (Reuters) - The Russian Orthodox Church scolded Pope Francis on Wednesday for using the wrong tone after he urged Patriarch Kirill not to become the Kremlin's "altar boy", cautioning the Vatican that such remarks would hurt dialogue between the churches.
Francis told Italy's Corriere Della Sera newspaper that Kirill, who has given the Ukraine war his backing, "cannot become [President Vladimir] Putin's altar boy". read more
The Russian Orthodox Church said it was regrettable that a month and a half after Francis and Kirill, the patriarch of Moscow and All Russia, had spoken directly, the pope had adopted such a tone.
"Pope Francis chose an incorrect tone to convey the content of this conversation," the Moscow Patriarchy said, though it did not explicitly mention the "altar boy" comment.
"Such statements are unlikely to contribute to the establishment of a constructive dialogue between the Roman Catholic and Russian Orthodox Churches, which is especially necessary at the present time."
Kirill, 75, a close ally of Putin, sees the war as a bulwark against a West he considers decadent, particularly over the acceptance of homosexuality.
The problem here isn't that this "man of God" is a Putin apologist who supports war crimes against Ukrainians and who would gladly have LGBTQ people burned at the stake. No, the problem is the pope's "tone."
The Catholic Church has never been shy about aligning itself with dictators and mass murderers.
They are an organization that craves power, and sucking up is the way to get it.
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The Catholic Church has never been shy about aligning itself with dictators and mass murderers.
They are an organization that craves power, and sucking up is the way to get it.
This article is about how the Vatican is standing up to the Russian Orthodox church.
But you be you.
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"Pope Francis chose an incorrect tone to convey the content of this conversation," the Moscow Patriarchy said, though it did not explicitly mention the "altar boy" comment.
"Such statements are unlikely to contribute to the establishment of a constructive dialogue between the Roman Catholic and Russian Orthodox Churches, which is especially necessary at the present time."
(https://i.kym-cdn.com/photos/images/newsfeed/000/757/498/89c.gif)
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This article is about how the Vatican is standing up to the Russian Orthodox church.
But you be you.
The Russian Orthodox Church is Catholic, just not Roman Catholic.
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The Russian Orthodox Church is Catholic, just not Roman Catholic.
But the Vatican is Roman Catholic.
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The Russian Orthodox Church is Catholic, just not Roman Catholic.
What? They are orthodox. Just like the Greek Orthodox and other eastern churches. The Russian church isn't under Rome in any way, shape or form.
The Great Schism, aina?
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What? They are orthodox. Just like the Greek Orthodox and other eastern churches. The Russian church isn't under Rome in any way, shape or form.
The Great Schism, aina?
Catholic noun
Cath·o·lic | \ ˈkath-lik , ˈka-thə- \
1: a member of a Catholic church
especially : ROMAN CATHOLIC
2: a person who belongs to the universal Christian church
It's basically a synonym for "Christian."
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Catholic noun
Cath·o·lic | \ ˈkath-lik , ˈka-thə- \
1: a member of a Catholic church
especially : ROMAN CATHOLIC
2: a person who belongs to the universal Christian church
It's basically a synonym for "Christian."
Pedantic.
Are you a Lutheran Catholic? ::) ::)
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Catholic noun
Cath·o·lic | \ ˈkath-lik , ˈka-thə- \
1: a member of a Catholic church
especially : ROMAN CATHOLIC
2: a person who belongs to the universal Christian church
It's basically a synonym for "Christian."
That isn't what is being delineated here.
All Catholics are Christians, not all Christians are Catholics. Despite what that definition says.
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Catholic noun
Cath·o·lic | \ ˈkath-lik , ˈka-thə- \
1: a member of a Catholic church
especially : ROMAN CATHOLIC
2: a person who belongs to the universal Christian church
It's basically a synonym for "Christian."
Are you saying Catholic and Christian are synonyms?
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What? They are orthodox. Just like the Greek Orthodox and other eastern churches. The Russian church isn't under Rome in any way, shape or form.
The Great Schism, aina?
https://www.oca.org/questions/romancatholicism/catholic-and-orthodox
The orthodox church considers itself to be catholic. Little c catholic, not big C Catholic
I assumed this is what Jockey meant given that the article he was quoting was criticizing the Russian Orthodox church. If I misunderstood him than mea culpa.
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https://www.oca.org/questions/romancatholicism/catholic-and-orthodox
The orthodox church considers itself to be catholic. Little c catholic, not big Catholic
They consider their name to be Eastern Orthodox Catholic Church.
But we're all being pedantic here. When people say are you catholic or orthodox, we all know what is meant. Do you bow to the Pope of Rome or not.
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https://www.oca.org/questions/romancatholicism/catholic-and-orthodox
The orthodox church considers itself to be catholic. Little c catholic, not big C Catholic
I assumed this is what Jockey meant given that the article he was quoting was criticizing the Russian Orthodox church. If I misunderstood him than mea culpa.
When the article is talking about the Pope and the Patriarch of the Russian church "fueding", it's big C Catholic versus little c Orthodox.
Clarissa can explain it all, beyond my explanation.
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Catholic noun
Cath·o·lic | \ ˈkath-lik , ˈka-thə- \
1: a member of a Catholic church
especially : ROMAN CATHOLIC
2: a person who belongs to the universal Christian church
It's basically a synonym for "Christian."
I have never heard a Catholic refer to himself as a Christian or vice versa.
Maybe others have a different experience?
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Pedantic.
Are you a Lutheran Catholic? ::) ::)
Yes, but with catholic not capitalized. The Apostles Creed I say during worship states:
"I believe in the Holy Spirit, the holy catholic church..."
You could just admit you were wrong instead of doubling down.
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Yes, but with catholic not capitalized. The Apostles Creed I say during worship states:
"I believe in the Holy Spirit, the holy catholic church..."
You could just admit you were wrong instead of doubling down.
You are hopeless.
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Yes, but with catholic not capitalized. The Apostles Creed I say during worship states:
"I believe in the Holy Spirit, the holy catholic church..."
You could just admit you were wrong instead of doubling down.
Thats interesting. Since the late 80s, my experiences in Lutheran churches of 2 diff synods, as well as Presbyterian services, it was always "I believe in the Holy Spirit, the holy christian church" or "we believe in one holy, christian, and apostolic church" when saying the Nicene. The only time I ever saw "catholic" instead of christian was going to Mass with my Catholic side of the family.
My understanding was using the lowercase catholic, in that or other cases, was very antiquated.
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Thats interesting. Since the late 80s, my experiences in Lutheran churches of 2 diff synods, as well as Presbyterian services, it was always "I believe in the Holy Spirit, the holy christian church" or "we believe in one holy, christian, and apostolic church" when saying the Nicene. The only time I ever saw "catholic" instead of christian was going to Mass with my Catholic side of the family.
My understanding was using the lowercase catholic, in that or other cases, was very antiquated.
Sultan does not approve of these distinctions.a
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Back to the war...
For the 1st month to 6 weeks, I took all of the reports of how well the Ukrainians were doing with a grain of salt. There is value in having the other side believe you are having great success.
But as the war goes on, the struggles of Russia and the Russian army are seeming to become much more obvious and realistic. They have been handed some pretty solid defeats and have engaged in a lot of retreat over the last month or so.
Just wondering if anyone else is getting the same sense about the war.
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Back to the war...
For the 1st month to 6 weeks, I took all of the reports of how well the Ukrainians were doing with a grain of salt. There is value in having the other side believe you are having great success.
But as the war goes on, the struggles of Russia and the Russian army are seeming to become much more obvious and realistic. They have been handed some pretty solid defeats and have engaged in a lot of retreat over the last month or so.
Just wondering if anyone else is getting the same sense about the war.
I've read "State of the War" type updates from numerous different sources, and based on the maps they've shown, Russia is grinding out territorial gains in the east of Ukraine. Not steadily, with numerous setbacks, and at enormous cost. The question is how long Russia can keep getting punched in the face to eke out these gains, particularly as the West has become more comfortable providing increasingly advanced weapons to Ukraine.
At the beginning of the war I thought Russian would just takeover the two "breakaway" republics under his peacekeeper rouse, but Putin stupidly wanted to eat the whole elephant. I think he believed that Trump had weakened NATO and the West's resolve sufficiently that they wouldn't put up much of a fight. But everyone rallies to the underdog, and I believe you have to give Biden credit for uniting Europe and NATO behind Ukraine. There is zero chance this happens if Trump is still President, the man who stupidly called Putin's war of conquest genius.
Putin could just consolidate in gains in Donetsk, which would likely lead to a long-term stalemate. I'm not sure I see any other way out for him. Best case scenario is the unnatural carnal knowledgeer dies and a new leader declares mission accomplished and ends it. It's tragic that Ukraine has to continue to absorb horrific losses; if they had access to out truly advance conventional forces--specifically F-35s and Abrams MBTs and the associated support abilities--they would drive Russia out in no time.
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Another Ukrainian tractor captures its prey
https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1524717743668346880
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Thats interesting. Since the late 80s, my experiences in Lutheran churches of 2 diff synods, as well as Presbyterian services, it was always "I believe in the Holy Spirit, the holy christian church" or "we believe in one holy, christian, and apostolic church" when saying the Nicene. The only time I ever saw "catholic" instead of christian was going to Mass with my Catholic side of the family.
My understanding was using the lowercase catholic, in that or other cases, was very antiquated.
Lifelong ELCA Lutheran. We have always said "catholic."
Sultan does not approve of these distinctions.a
I completely approve. You just don't understand the meaning of words and get mad when someone shows your ignorance. People interested in lifelong learning would say "I didn't realize that...thank you."
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I don’t agree with that, so I’m starting my own ‘catholic’ church… ? Protestantism, yes? Whichever version you choose that fits your fancy.
Lifelong ELCA Lutheran. We have always said "catholic."
I completely approve. You just don't understand the meaning of words and get mad when someone shows your ignorance. People interested in lifelong learning would say "I didn't realize that...thank you."
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Lifelong ELCA Lutheran. We have always said "catholic."
I completely approve. You just don't understand the meaning of words and get mad when someone shows your ignorance. People interested in lifelong learning would say "I didn't realize that...thank you."
Peek sultan. You are right, as usual. I worship at your font of catholic knowledge.
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I don’t agree with that, so I’m starting my own ‘catholic’ church… ? Protestantism, yes? Whichever version you choose that fits your fancy.
Catholics created a hierarchy out of whole cloth.
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Back to the war...
For the 1st month to 6 weeks, I took all of the reports of how well the Ukrainians were doing with a grain of salt. There is value in having the other side believe you are having great success.
But as the war goes on, the struggles of Russia and the Russian army are seeming to become much more obvious and realistic. They have been handed some pretty solid defeats and have engaged in a lot of retreat over the last month or so.
Just wondering if anyone else is getting the same sense about the war.
I think that the most important thing to remember is that everyone is susceptible to propaganda... everyone.
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I think that the most important thing to remember is that everyone is susceptible to propaganda... everyone.
Yup. We would have rolled them in a conventional war had it come to that in the Cold War
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The Overlooked Reason Russia’s Invasion Is Floundering
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/05/russian-military-air-force-failure-ukraine/629803/?utm_source=apple_news
"The Russian air force’s failure is perhaps the most important, but least discussed, story of the military conflict so far. Ukrainian forces showed surprising strength in the air war, and adapted as the fighting progressed. But either side of this war could still gain air supremacy—and fundamentally change the course of the conflict.
Unfortunately for the Russians, the recent modernization of the Russian air force, although intended to enable it to conduct modern combined operations, was mostly for show. The Russians wasted money and effort on corruption and inefficiency. Though much was made of the flashy new equipment, such as the much-hyped SU-34 strike aircraft, the Russian air force continues to suffer from flawed logistics operations and the lack of regular, realistic training. Above all, the autocratic Russian kleptocracy does not trust low-ranking and middle-ranking officers, and so cannot allow the imaginative, flexible decision making that NATO air forces rely upon.
Of course, the most important reason for the failure of Russian airpower, and the evident caution of Russian pilots, has been Ukrainian opposition. Unlike their enemy, the Ukrainians have developed a coherent concept of air operations, one that has allowed them to block what looked like an easy path to Russian air dominance."
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These are the Apostles Creed and Niceness Creeds we say:
https://www.episcopalchurch.org/what-we-believe/creeds/
I am in the process of converting to Presbyterian and it is similar in that denomination
https://www.christpres.org/nicene-apostles-creed
I always feel good when reciting these creeds .
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"A partial rundown of Russia's struggles," from David Leonhardt of the NYT:
++ Russian troops have not taken control of any major cities in the Donbas region that they did not already control in February, at the start of the invasion, my colleague Julian Barnes notes. “Russian morale remains bad,” Julian says. “The casualties are bad.”
++ British officials made a stunning announcement yesterday: Russia appears to have lost about one-third of the troops it has sent to Ukraine. The officials also said Russia’s Donbas push had “lost momentum and fallen significantly behind schedule.”
One recent battle was so deadly for Russia that it has led to criticism from pro-Russia bloggers.
++ “The Russian military has not yet achieved Putin’s stated territorial objectives of securing all of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts and is unlikely to do so,” Katherine Lawlor and Mason Clark of the Institute for the Study of War in Washington wrote on Friday. Yaroslav Trofimov of The Wall Street Journal has made similar points.
++ My colleague Michael Schwirtz noted that, until two weeks ago, he had not seen an aircraft in the sky for more than a month. But he has since seen several fighter planes and attack helicopters, all evidently Ukrainian. Russia’s inability to control the air is hampering its ability to advance.
++ Avril Haines, the U.S. director of intelligence, told Congress last week that Russia was “increasingly unlikely” to meet its territorial goals in the coming weeks.
Also ...
After trying to win the war with an early blitz, Putin's military leaders apparently have realized they needed to slow down the offensive and try to win a war of attrition. Putin could be searching for ways to declare victory and to make a settlement that could end up with Russia gaining some of Ukraine's territory.
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The Overlooked Reason Russia’s Invasion Is Floundering
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/05/russian-military-air-force-failure-ukraine/629803/?utm_source=apple_news
"The Russian air force’s failure is perhaps the most important, but least discussed, story of the military conflict so far. Ukrainian forces showed surprising strength in the air war, and adapted as the fighting progressed. But either side of this war could still gain air supremacy—and fundamentally change the course of the conflict.
Unfortunately for the Russians, the recent modernization of the Russian air force, although intended to enable it to conduct modern combined operations, was mostly for show. The Russians wasted money and effort on corruption and inefficiency. Though much was made of the flashy new equipment, such as the much-hyped SU-34 strike aircraft, the Russian air force continues to suffer from flawed logistics operations and the lack of regular, realistic training. Above all, the autocratic Russian kleptocracy does not trust low-ranking and middle-ranking officers, and so cannot allow the imaginative, flexible decision making that NATO air forces rely upon.
Of course, the most important reason for the failure of Russian airpower, and the evident caution of Russian pilots, has been Ukrainian opposition. Unlike their enemy, the Ukrainians have developed a coherent concept of air operations, one that has allowed them to block what looked like an easy path to Russian air dominance."
Finest GPS available. ;D
Downed Russian fighter jets are being found with basic GPS 'taped to the dashboards,' UK defense minister says
https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-su34-jets-basic-gps-receivers-taped-to-dashboards-uk-2022-5
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"A partial rundown of Russia's struggles," from David Leonhardt of the NYT:
++ Russian troops have not taken control of any major cities in the Donbas region that they did not already control in February, at the start of the invasion, my colleague Julian Barnes notes. “Russian morale remains bad,” Julian says. “The casualties are bad.”
++ British officials made a stunning announcement yesterday: Russia appears to have lost about one-third of the troops it has sent to Ukraine. The officials also said Russia’s Donbas push had “lost momentum and fallen significantly behind schedule.”
One recent battle was so deadly for Russia that it has led to criticism from pro-Russia bloggers.
++ “The Russian military has not yet achieved Putin’s stated territorial objectives of securing all of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts and is unlikely to do so,” Katherine Lawlor and Mason Clark of the Institute for the Study of War in Washington wrote on Friday. Yaroslav Trofimov of The Wall Street Journal has made similar points.
++ My colleague Michael Schwirtz noted that, until two weeks ago, he had not seen an aircraft in the sky for more than a month. But he has since seen several fighter planes and attack helicopters, all evidently Ukrainian. Russia’s inability to control the air is hampering its ability to advance.
++ Avril Haines, the U.S. director of intelligence, told Congress last week that Russia was “increasingly unlikely” to meet its territorial goals in the coming weeks.
Also ...
After trying to win the war with an early blitz, Putin's military leaders apparently have realized they needed to slow down the offensive and try to win a war of attrition. Putin could be searching for ways to declare victory and to make a settlement that could end up with Russia gaining some of Ukraine's territory.
Eh, they took Mariupol. It cost them heavily, but they took it.
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Some thoughts based on the Pentagon briefing
https://twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien/status/1527180740592553985
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Some thoughts based on the Pentagon briefing
https://twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien/status/1527180740592553985
Interesting comments below, where people on the ground in the Donbas contradict what the Pentagon said. Some of them say Russia is about to take major supply lines that will cut off the Ukraine military and that the shelling his more intense than ever.
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Now this is a bad Gaffe.
https://www.cnn.com/2022/05/20/middleeast/bush-iraq-ukraine-slip-mime-intl/index.html (https://www.cnn.com/2022/05/20/middleeast/bush-iraq-ukraine-slip-mime-intl/index.html)
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The ultimate Freudian slip
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Interesting comments below, where people on the ground in the Donbas contradict what the Pentagon said. Some of them say Russia is about to take major supply lines that will cut off the Ukraine military and that the shelling his more intense than ever.
Updates:
https://twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien/status/1528276530253660162
Very intense fighting, but in a very small section of front line.
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From the NYT:
Boris Bondarev says President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia could have spent the last two decades “developing the country” but instead turned it “into some kind of total horror, a threat to the world.”
Mr. Bondarev would know: He spent his career promoting Mr. Putin’s foreign policy.
A midlevel diplomat at Russia’s United Nations mission in Geneva, Mr. Bondarev on Monday became the most prominent Russian official to resign and publicly criticize the war in Ukraine since the invasion on Feb. 24.
“For 20 years of my diplomatic career I have seen different turns of our foreign policy but never have I been so ashamed of my country as on Feb. 24 of this year,” Mr. Bondarev said in an email to colleagues.
While his blistering message was unlikely to reach most Russians given the state’s domination of the news media, his resignation showed that discontent lurks in Russian officialdom despite the facade of national unity that the Kremlin has worked to create.
“Those who conceived this war want only one thing — to remain in power forever, live in pompous tasteless palaces, sail on yachts comparable in tonnage and cost to the entire Russian Navy, enjoying unlimited power and complete impunity,” Mr. Bondarev said in his email. “To achieve that they are willing to sacrifice as many lives as it takes.”
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Imagine being a fresh Russian recruit and seeing that you'll be sent to war in a T-62.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/russia-is-pulling-old-obsolete-tanks-out-of-storage-because-it-is-losing-so-many-in-its-war-with-ukraine-intelligence-suggests/ar-AAXNV2y
"And on Friday, the British defense ministry posted an intelligence update reporting that "Russia has likely moved 50-year-old T-62 tanks from deep storage," noting that the move "highlights Russia's shortage of modern, combat-ready equipment."
The UK also said that these Soviet armor assets "will almost certainly be particularly vulnerable to anti-tank weapons," such as anti-tank guided missiles like the Javelins provided by the US or next generation light anti-tank weapons (NLAWs) from the UK that have been devastating even Russia's more modern tanks over the past three months."
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https://www.nytimes.com/2022/06/01/world/europe/ukraine-russia-losses-east.html
"Though much of the world’s focus in the war has been on Russia’s disorganized and flawed campaign, Ukraine, too, is struggling. Ukraine’s army has suffered heavy losses, shown signs of disarray and, step by step, fallen back from some long-held areas in Donbas, the eastern region that is now the war’s epicenter.
The momentum Ukraine generated after pushing Russian forces back from Kyiv, the capital, and Kharkiv, the second-largest city, has given way in the east to weeks of give-and-take over villages, heavy shelling — and a stream of Ukrainian dead and wounded from the battlefields."
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This is the concern. Russia can afford to exchange dead soldiers 1:1. That will lead to a Russia victory. It's a military strategy used to great effect in WW2. Putin appears to be resurrecting it. It will be up to the Russian people who see enough dead bodies returned to their families from a war with a country that was supposed to be welcoming the Russian "liberators" to somehow put enough pressure on Putin to end it. I'm not optimistic for Ukraine's chances in a long drawn out affair.
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https://www.nytimes.com/2022/06/01/world/europe/ukraine-russia-losses-east.html
"Though much of the world’s focus in the war has been on Russia’s disorganized and flawed campaign, Ukraine, too, is struggling. Ukraine’s army has suffered heavy losses, shown signs of disarray and, step by step, fallen back from some long-held areas in Donbas, the eastern region that is now the war’s epicenter.
The momentum Ukraine generated after pushing Russian forces back from Kyiv, the capital, and Kharkiv, the second-largest city, has given way in the east to weeks of give-and-take over villages, heavy shelling — and a stream of Ukrainian dead and wounded from the battlefields."
The New York Times coverage has been fatalistic and doom and gloom the entire 100 days and not as informative. From what I've read the Kharkhiv Russian counterattack was only reported on Russian propaganda Telegram and there is no actual physical proof of any counterattack.
From multiple sources it is not 1:1 losses. The Russians have been taking a shellacking everywhere and their losses continue to be greater than Ukraine.
The Russians only strategy is to indiscriminately shell and then attempt to advance. From what I've read in the last week, is the NATO longer range guns have started to arrive and where they've been put into action are already making an impact as they are taking out Russian big guns because they out distance them. The HIMARS stuff announced this week is even longer range and no surprise they were already pre-staged in Europe. The NATO big guns are still arriving and will be taking out Russians only tactic for advancement.
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The New York Times coverage has been fatalistic and doom and gloom the entire 100 days and not as informative. From what I've read the Kharkhiv Russian counterattack was only reported on Russian propaganda Telegram and there is no actual physical proof of any counterattack.
From multiple sources it is not 1:1 losses. The Russians have been taking a shellacking everywhere and their losses continue to be greater than Ukraine.
The Russians only strategy is to indiscriminately shell and then attempt to advance. From what I've read in the last week, is the NATO longer range guns have started to arrive and where they've been put into action are already making an impact as they are taking out Russian big guns because they out distance them. The HIMARS stuff announced this week is even longer range and no surprise they were already pre-staged in Europe. The NATO big guns are still arriving and will be taking out Russians only tactic for advancement.
I hope you are right, but currently it is clear that Russia is grinding forward, slowly. They don't care about their own losses or civilians murdered, but mere weight of superior numbers is allowing them to plod forward.
The West is slowly giving Ukraine better and better weapons with which to counter, marked by a Putin hissy fit each time. I hope they are enough to stop and reverse the Russian advance.
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https://www.cnn.com/2022/06/02/europe/putin-ukraine-invasion-100-days-analysis-intl-cmd/index.html
"You have the watches but we have the time." Russia has the time.
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https://www.cnn.com/2022/06/02/europe/putin-ukraine-invasion-100-days-analysis-intl-cmd/index.html
"You have the watches but we have the time." Russia has the time.
They may have the time, but toward what end? Strategically this has been a disaster for Russia on many fronts. Whatever is left of Ukraine will be decidedly pro-West. Any sort of potential split in NATO, outside of the idiots in Turkey, has been patched. Germany has started to re-militarize. And two historically neutral countries have applied to join NATO.
It's going to be another generation before people trust Russia again. They may end up lopping off a hunk of Ukraine when all is said and done, but the price they are going to have to pay for that is monumental.
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They may have the time, but toward what end? Strategically this has been a disaster for Russia on many fronts. Whatever is left of Ukraine will be decidedly pro-West. Any sort of potential split in NATO, outside of the idiots in Turkey, has been patched. Germany has started to re-militarize. And two historically neutral countries have applied to join NATO.
It's going to be another generation before people trust Russia again. They may end up lopping off a hunk of Ukraine when all is said and done, but the price they are going to have to pay for that is monumental.
I don’t know that I agree with your last statement. Russia has always been a pariah with an us-against-them attitude.
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I don’t know that I agree with your last statement. Russia has always been a pariah with an us-against-them attitude.
Yea, I don't know when anyone really trusted Russia. I mean, even when tourism was open and safe, it was still kind of like, if you go, "be mindful"...
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OK point made. But I guess my overall point is that this is going to end up killing a lot of people and making their strategic position even worse.
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They may have the time, but toward what end? Strategically this has been a disaster for Russia on many fronts. Whatever is left of Ukraine will be decidedly pro-West. Any sort of potential split in NATO, outside of the idiots in Turkey, has been patched. Germany has started to re-militarize. And two historically neutral countries have applied to join NATO.
It's going to be another generation before people trust Russia again. They may end up lopping off a hunk of Ukraine when all is said and done, but the price they are going to have to pay for that is monumental.
I've seen a bunch of mentions in my industrial trade magazines that they pretty much expect no Western companies having operations in Russia for at least 20 years min.
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According to a report from the Daily Beast's Allison Quinn, Radio Free Europe’s Ukrainian service obtained a recording of two high-ranking military officials swearing and raging at the Kremlin and Russian President Vladimir Putin over the Ukraine invasion that has turned into a quagmire despite predictions by Kremlin officials it would meet little resistance.
The report notes the two officials are reportedly Colonel Maksim Vlasov and Colonel Vitaly Kovtun who, based upon their comments, are exceedingly unhappy with the Kremlin as they commiserated with each other.
Colorful comments here: https://www.thedailybeast.com/top-russian-military-brass-caught-venting-youre-unnatural carnal knowledgeed-putinmotherunnatural carnal knowledgeer?ref=scroll
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The June issue of Smithsonian Magazine includes a story about Ukranian immigrants in California. Seven individuals are featured. Just a few quotes (edited by me) from the story:
"Something we Ukranians share with the West is the idea that truth is important in itself. If you think human life is important, truth is important. That's different from people in support of Russia as a militaristic country, Russian conquest. They see people as a means to an end, of a great empire. If human life is seen as a burden for the Russian state, it can be eliminated. That value system puts the State above the individual."
This writer, Oleksandr Trofymenko, came to the US as a 15-year-old and is currently doing his residency as a psychiatrist.
Mark Khoroshev is an 85-year-old engineer who is still working. He holds 3 US patents and has "published a few books".
"I was born in 1937. That year, my father was arrested. He was sent to Pechory as 'an enemy of the people'. My lifetime coincided with the war, which made me an adult while I was still a child. I saw the Holocaust, my family had many losses, and I saw repression. Everything would have been fine if I hadn't found out that I was living in a country ruled by a tyrant. The tyranny didn't end with Stalin. The Communist Party ruled everything. I was just a cog in the wheel."
"At the beginning of the war, I had seven relatives in Ukraine. Now there's only one left."
"I know that even if peace is declared tomorrow, it will only be on paper."
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Odessa and a Russian blockade could be a enormous problem. Africa gets 40% of its wheat from Ukraine. I'm not sure what specifically we're planning to do to help but this is a tenuous and potentially dire situation.
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Odessa and a Russian blockade could be a enormous problem. Africa gets 40% of its wheat from Ukraine. I'm not sure what specifically we're planning to do to help but this is a tenuous and potentially dire situation.
Nothing. We will continue to supply arms, that's it. That's all we should be doing.
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I also think we should be talking to Ukraine about what a "saving face" peace looks like.
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Yea, I don't know when anyone really trusted Russia. I mean, even when tourism was open and safe, it was still kind of like, if you go, "be mindful"...
Unless you’re a fellow traveler. Bernie honeymooned there, a’ina?
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Unless you’re a fellow traveler. Bernie honeymooned there, a’ina?
Wonder if he stayed at the same hotel where trump's hookers peed.
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Ayyeee. This crap is great. What we paying for? Why we paying for? Ooooh. We need a good guy and bad guy narrative to feel comfortable with this crap, right? Ukraine's wellbeing is of absolute vital importance to my way of life. Like, how can I go to my local bar while they are fighting for Democracy? crap, send them more weapons. Ban pro-russian voices. They don't know crap about crap and shouldn't say crap about crap until they have their crap figured out. I think we should send them $1trillion of weapons. I'm not profiting on it. Pinky swear
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The Tucker viewers are out in force this afternoon.
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The Tucker viewers are out in force this afternoon.
Whatever we can do to ensure more dead Ukrainians is what we need to do. Russia will be weakend. The peace process isn't inevitable and this Ukrainian army can actually win. We're the good guys. Send them more money and weapons. They'll die. I have a Ukraine flag in my profile pic. I'm a good person.
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Putin is the bad guy. Arguing differently shows you to be a fool.
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My concern beyond the Ukrainians is a severe food shortage in Africa and the Middle East.
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Putin is the bad guy. Arguing differently shows you to be a fool.
When I was a kid, the green guys were good and the tan guys were bad. I set up some epic battles in the sandbox. Fortunately for the green guys, the tan guys always seemed to position themselves over a full pack of black cats.
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Putin is the bad guy.
C'mon, man. He's just misunderstood.
He's really just a gentle guy who loves horses and cares deeply about his fellow Russian citizens.
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Wonder if he stayed at the same hotel where trump's hookers peed.
Fake news in reply to facts. Sad.
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Fake news in reply to facts. Sad.
Your statements were equally fake news, and absurdly pointless to any discussion of Ukraine.
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I also think we should be talking to Ukraine about what a "saving face" peace looks like.
Yeah, and we know that all too well from Vietnam, hey?
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Wonder if he stayed at the same hotel where trump's hookers peed.
The hotel where (8) Republican Senators stayed who visited on America's holiday July 4, 2018.
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I tell people I was Rambo-ized in the 80's and I just don't like or trust Russians. Marrying my Polish-born wife just added fuel to the fire.
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Fake news in reply to facts. Sad.
Fake news?
https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/bernie-sanders-honeymoon-russia/
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Yeah, and we know that all too well from Vietnam, hey?
Exactly. Fifty years later that was clearly a war we fought for too long, costing too many lives. We normalized relations 20 years after the war ended and they are now a preferred trading partner. You have to wonder what the entire point was.
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Not to deflect from the Snopes fest, but I met a Ukrainian in his mid 30s this weekend at a trade show.
He and his family own the largest jewelry manufacturer in Ukraine and one of the predominant retail operations for gems and jewelry. Not only are they based in Ukraine, they are/were based on Kharkiv.
He didn't want to get too deep into it, for obvious reasons, but he had cousins in Miami who handled their US sales efforts, and about 2 months ago they moved EVERYTHING they could from the business to Miami. In the face of everything, I really appreciated his humor...
"You think escaping a war is hard? Try finding reasonably priced real estate, with security for millions of dollars worth of goods, in Miami on short notice"
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This is one of the more optimistic state-of-the-war summaries I've seen. If the West can give Ukraine the means eliminate Russia's artillery advantage, they will be able to drive them out of Donbas.
https://twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien/status/1543491060684492800
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This is one of the more optimistic state-of-the-war summaries I've seen. If the West can give Ukraine the means eliminate Russia's artillery advantage, they will be able to drive them out of Donbas.
https://twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien/status/1543491060684492800
Let’s see if the freedom loving west actually comes through to help keep Ukraine free
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The winners in this all are still China and Saudi Arabia.
In the early 70's we had an economic crisis spurred by the worlds reliance on Saudi oil. When the Yom Kippur war occurred, Saudi Arabia cut off their oil, and we had oil shortages and rampant inflation (blamed on Carter; even though the major causes occurred under Nixon). Our solution then was to cut a back room deal with Saudi Arabia, where we would guarantee oil purchases at largely whatever price they set, under the agreement that they poured that money into US treasuries so we could continue major deficit spending. Since then Saudi Arabia to reasonable extent can hold us hostage.
Fast forward almost 50 years. Ukraine/Russia crisis. Loss of Russian oil, in combination with global supply issues cause oil shortages, and mass inflation (blamed on Biden: even though the major causes go back likely multiple presidencies). China and Saudi Arabia hold all the cards to limit damage (as well as Venezuela and Iran). It took us 30 years to learn of the backroom deals from the Nixon era, I fear what kind of backroom deals are being done now.
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The winners in this all are still China and Saudi Arabia.
In the early 70's we had an economic crisis spurred by the worlds reliance on Saudi oil. When the Yom Kippur war occurred, Saudi Arabia cut off their oil, and we had oil shortages and rampant inflation (blamed on Carter; even though the major causes occurred under Nixon). Our solution then was to cut a back room deal with Saudi Arabia, where we would guarantee oil purchases at largely whatever price they set, under the agreement that they poured that money into US treasuries so we could continue major deficit spending. Since then Saudi Arabia to reasonable extent can hold us hostage.
Fast forward almost 50 years. Ukraine/Russia crisis. Loss of Russian oil, in combination with global supply issues cause oil shortages, and mass inflation (blamed on Biden: even though the major causes go back likely multiple presidencies). China and Saudi Arabia hold all the cards to limit damage (as well as Venezuela and Iran). It took us 30 years to learn of the backroom deals from the Nixon era, I fear what kind of backroom deals are being done now.
Only if the policies of multiple Presidents caused global inflation. The European Union was at 8.1% through April.
https://inflationdata.com/articles/2022/05/21/worldwide-inflation-by-country-2022/#:~:text=The%20World%20Inflation%20Rate%20The%20average%20inflation%20rate,from%204.35%25%20in%202021%2C%20and%203.18%25%20in%202020.
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Only if the policies of multiple Presidents caused global inflation. The European Union was at 8.1% through April.
https://inflationdata.com/articles/2022/05/21/worldwide-inflation-by-country-2022/#:~:text=The%20World%20Inflation%20Rate%20The%20average%20inflation%20rate,from%204.35%25%20in%202021%2C%20and%203.18%25%20in%202020.
My apologies, my wording was poor and convoluted. I'm blaming inflation on two aspects, supply chain (e.g. lack of domestic production) and in regards to oil/food the Ukraine/Russia crisis.
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The winners in this all are still China and Saudi Arabia.
In the early 70's we had an economic crisis spurred by the worlds reliance on Saudi oil. When the Yom Kippur war occurred, Saudi Arabia cut off their oil, and we had oil shortages and rampant inflation (blamed on Carter; even though the major causes occurred under Nixon). Our solution then was to cut a back room deal with Saudi Arabia, where we would guarantee oil purchases at largely whatever price they set, under the agreement that they poured that money into US treasuries so we could continue major deficit spending. Since then Saudi Arabia to reasonable extent can hold us hostage.
Fast forward almost 50 years. Ukraine/Russia crisis. Loss of Russian oil, in combination with global supply issues cause oil shortages, and mass inflation (blamed on Biden: even though the major causes go back likely multiple presidencies). China and Saudi Arabia hold all the cards to limit damage (as well as Venezuela and Iran). It took us 30 years to learn of the backroom deals from the Nixon era, I fear what kind of backroom deals are being done now.
You forgot India.
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The effect upgraded Ukrainian artillery capability is having:
https://twitter.com/noclador/status/1544495879884886017
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A Russian parliamentary member just threatened Alaska.
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We have politicians say stupid crap all the time. So do they. Meh.
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A Russian parliamentary member just threatened Alaska.
Russia threatens a number of places daily, they're the new DPRK
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an additional $820 million in aid to Ukraine, after $1 billion three weeks ago and $1.3 billion last week. Zylenskyy calling for $750 billion to rebuild. Is Ukraine going to become the new Israel?
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an additional $820 million in aid to Ukraine, after $1 billion three weeks ago and $1.3 billion last week. Zylenskyy calling for $750 billion to rebuild. Is Ukraine going to become the new Israel?
HOW WILL WE PAY FOR IT????
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an additional $820 million in aid to Ukraine, after $1 billion three weeks ago and $1.3 billion last week. Zylenskyy calling for $750 billion to rebuild. Is Ukraine going to become the new Israel?
Paying for this proxy war is far cheaper than being involved in it... plus the world will continue to exist (great bonus!).
The war in Afghanistan cost tax payers $300 million dollars a day. We're getting a great 'bang' for our buck! If we'd have just given everyone in Afghanistan $50,000 instead of blowing them to high hell for two decades, they and we would all probably have been better off.
Ukraine wants a billion a month? Sheeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeet, give em dat aid baby!
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Yeah, science!
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/russia-says-it-s-losing-because-ukraine-has-experimental-mutant-troops-created-in-secret-biolabss/ar-AAZJBZo?cvid=3e36e7a118034e77a2af68197633b4f2
"...Russian lawmakers claim the real setback for Moscow was “drugged up” Ukrainian soldiers.
That claim was made Monday by two Russian lawmakers heading up a commission to investigate “biolaboratories” in Ukraine, Kommersant reported.
Testing of Ukrainian POWs’ blood, they claimed, uncovered “a range of diseases” that suggest they were secretly experimented on “for military purposes.”
“And we see: the cruelty and barbarity with which the military personnel of Ukraine behave, the crimes that they commit against the civilian population, those monstrous crimes that they commit against prisoners of war, confirm that this system for the control and creation of a cruel murder machine was implemented under the management of the United States,” Yarovaya was quoted telling reporters.
“And those performance enhancing drugs that they are still given in order to completely neutralize the last traces of human consciousness and turn them into the most cruel and deadly monsters also confirm this,” she claimed."
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Is this from Russia or Tucker?
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Paying for this proxy war is far cheaper than being involved in it... plus the world will continue to exist (great bonus!).
The war in Afghanistan cost tax payers $300 million dollars a day. We're getting a great 'bang' for our buck! If we'd have just given everyone in Afghanistan $50,000 instead of blowing them to high hell for two decades, they and we would all probably have been better off.
Ukraine wants a billion a month? Sheeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeet, give em dat aid baby!
Edit: I'm wrong. Idiot.
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The good news is Ukrainians selling US/NATO arms to the highest bidder. Always love to see it
Cite?
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Cite?
(waits for incoming Youtube video)
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Cite?
My apologies. Has glanced at this story: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/7/17/cargo-plane-carrying-hazardous-material-crashes-in-greece
Apparently Serbian munitions
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(waits for incoming Youtube video)
Keep crushing that faux-centrism, wags
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Keep crushing that faux-centrism, wags
Faux? Come on man. Take a joke. Sorry I don't reside in a snarky democratic socialism wet dream.
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Faux? Come on man. Take a joke. Sorry I don't reside in a snarky democratic socialism wet dream.
You should. It's warm here.
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You should. It's warm here.
It's warm everywhere. Climate change, aina?
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‘A beacon of hope’: Ukraine, Russia sign grain export deal
https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-middle-east-global-trade-a2c89d94a0f8473b40a1fcde5710bda8
ISTANBUL (AP) — Russia and Ukraine signed separate agreements Friday with Turkey and the United Nations clearing the way for exporting millions of tons of desperately needed Ukrainian grain — as well as Russian grain and fertilizer — ending a wartime standoff that had threatened food security around the globe.
The deal will enable Ukraine — one of the world’s key breadbaskets — to export 22 million tons of grain and other agricultural products that have been stuck in Black Sea ports due to Russia’s invasion. U.N. Secretary General Antonio Guterres called it “a beacon of hope” for millions of hungry people who have faced huge increases in food costs.
“A deal that allows grain to leave Black Sea ports is nothing short of lifesaving for people across the world who are struggling to feed their families,” said Red Cross Director-General Robert Mardini, who noted that over the past six months prices for food staples have risen 187% in Sudan, 86% in Syria, 60% in Yemen and 54% in Ethiopia.
Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and Ukrainian Infrastructure Minister Oleksandr Kubrakov signed separate, identical deals with Guterres and Turkish Defense Minister Hulusi Akar at a ceremony in Istanbul that was witnessed by Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.
“Today, there is a beacon on the Black Sea,” Guterres said. “A beacon of hope, a beacon of possibility, a beacon of relief in a world that needs it more than ever.”
“You have overcome obstacles and put aside differences to pave the way for an initiative that will serve the common interests of all,” he told the Russian and Ukrainian envoys.
Guterres described the deal as an unprecedented agreement between two parties engaged in a bloody conflict. Erdogan said he hoped the initiative would be “a new turning point that will revive hopes for peace.”
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Well, that lasted a few hours.
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/us-pledges-more-military-aid-ukraine-peace-seems-far-off-2022-07-22/
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When your losing NPR…
Keep that aid flowing and don’t ask questions.
https://www.npr.org/2022/07/20/1112414884/corruption-concerns-involving-ukraine-are-revived-as-the-war-with-russia-drags-o?utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=npr&utm_term=nprnews&utm_source=twitter.com
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When your losing NPR…
Keep that aid flowing and don’t ask questions.
https://www.npr.org/2022/07/20/1112414884/corruption-concerns-involving-ukraine-are-revived-as-the-war-with-russia-drags-o?utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=npr&utm_term=nprnews&utm_source=twitter.com
Nah, we should definitely support Putin, eh Junior?
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When your losing NPR…
Keep that aid flowing and don’t ask questions.
https://www.npr.org/2022/07/20/1112414884/corruption-concerns-involving-ukraine-are-revived-as-the-war-with-russia-drags-o?utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=npr&utm_term=nprnews&utm_source=twitter.com
The US complaining about corruption in Ukraine is like the kettle calling the pot black no?
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So now we're "considering" sending fighter jets to Ukraine? Hmmmmm.....the administration is no longer concerned this will start a nuclear war?
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The head of Russia’s second largest oil company, who publicly disagreed with the war, dies after falling out of a hospital window. Yeah, that’s plausible.
Some things just don’t change.
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The head of Russia’s second largest oil company, who publicly disagreed with the war, dies after falling out of a hospital window. Yeah, that’s plausible.
Some things just don’t change.
"He may have slipped from a balcony while smoking. No CCTV was available because cameras had been turned off for repairs."
Uh huh...
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The head of Russia’s second largest oil company, who publicly disagreed with the war, dies after falling out of a hospital window. Yeah, that’s plausible.
Some things just don’t change.
A lot of Russian oil execs dying under unusual circumstances lately.
Weird.
Maganov’s sudden death comes just a few months after Alexander Subbotin, a former top Lukoil executive, was found dead in May. An investigation into his death is said to be ongoing, though Russian state media put out a number of bizarre details at the time, citing sources who said Subbotin had been found dead in a shaman’s home where “voodoo rituals” were performed and that he’d been severely intoxicated.
Just a month earlier, Vladislav Avayev, the former vice president of Gazprombank, a privately-owned subsidiary of Gazprom, was found dead of a gunshot wound in Moscow, along with his wife and daughter. Investigators said they suspected a murder-suicide.
A day after Avayev’s body was found, Sergei Protosenya, the former deputy chairman of gas company Novatek, was found hanging in a villa in Spain, with his wife and daughter also found dead on the premises with stab wounds. Just as in the case of Avayev, local police said their preliminary theory was murder-suicide.
In February, Gazprom executive Alexander Tyulyakov was found hanged in his St. Petersburg garage, with police saying they’d discovered a suicide note near his body. His death came just a few weeks after Gazprom Invest exec Leonid Shulman was found dead at a cottage in the Leningrad region, with law enforcement sources also describing his death as a suicide.
https://www.thedailybeast.com/top-russian-oil-exec-ravil-maganov-dies-in-fall-out-of-hospital-window?ref=home
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"He may have slipped from a balcony while smoking. No CCTV was available because cameras had been turned off for repairs."
Uh huh...
Smoking on the balcony after being allegedly admitted for a heart attack? LOL
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Smoker smoking after a heart attack? I absolutely believe that. I watch smokers smoke while on oxygen. The rest is crap.
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"He may have slipped from a balcony while smoking. No CCTV was available because cameras had been turned off for repairs."
Uh huh...
Must've been cops running the cameras.
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A lot of Russian oil execs dying under unusual circumstances lately.
Weird.
Just a guess, but I bet at least one (maybe more) of these guys was a US intel source.
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The head of Russia’s second largest oil company, who publicly disagreed with the war, dies after falling out of a hospital window. Yeah, that’s plausible.
Some things just don’t change.
And yet you have certain people--scions of frozen dinner companies, perhaps--openly advocating that the U.S. should side with Russia.
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Just a guess, but I bet at least one (maybe more) of these guys was a US intel source.
Discovered in much the same way, I'm sure, as MBS knew which Saudis to round up.
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Just a guess, but I bet at least one (maybe more) of these guys was a US intel source.
Apparently there are a decent number of US intel sources that have wound up dead lately. Covers blown. Other sources have had their identities compromised.
Lots of intel apparently not being held close to the vest.
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Apparently there are a decent number of US intel sources that have wound up dead lately. Covers blown. Other sources have had their identities compromised.
Lots of intel apparently not being held close to the vest.
Captured, Killed or Compromised: C.I.A. Admits to Losing Dozens of Informants
Counterintelligence officials said in a top secret cable to all stations and bases around the world that too many of the people it recruits from other countries to spy for the U.S. are being lost.
Published Oct. 5, 2021
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/10/05/us/politics/cia-informants-killed-captured.html#:~:text=Captured%2C%20Killed%20or%20Compromised%3A%20C.I.A.%20Admits%20to%20Losing,the%20U.S.%20are%20being%20lost.%20Give%20this%20article
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And yet you have certain people--scions of frozen dinner companies, perhaps--openly advocating that the U.S. should side with Russia.
Marie Callender should shut her damn mouth
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Marie Callender should shut her damn mouth
Lol
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Long, detailed series of posts on the current Ukrainian counteroffensive. The HIMARS have had major, major impact on erasing Russia's artillery advantage.
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2022/9/4/2120770/-Ukraine-Update-Russia-culminates-Ukraine-advances-on-all-fronts
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Long, detailed series of posts on the current Ukrainian counteroffensive. The HIMARS have had major, major impact on erasing Russia's artillery advantage.
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2022/9/4/2120770/-Ukraine-Update-Russia-culminates-Ukraine-advances-on-all-fronts
HIMARS O'clock.
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As the war in Ukraine lurches toward the 200-day mark, Russia is turning to global pariah state North Korea to purchase Soviet-era weapons, according to a newly declassified U.S. intelligence report.
Moscow is preparing to buy “millions of rockets and artillery shells” from Pyongyang, a U.S. official told The Washington Post on Tuesday, speaking on the condition of anonymity about the declassified intelligence, which was first reported by the New York Times.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/09/06/north-korea-russia-weapons-ukraine/?utm_campaign=wp_post_most&utm_medium=email&utm_source=newsletter&wpisrc=nl_most&carta-url=https%3A%2F%2Fs2.washingtonpost.com%2Fcar-ln-tr%2F37d90bd%2F63176f6cab732227d01038c8%2F5f8d147cae7e8a56e5b732a4%2F15%2F72%2F63176f6cab732227d01038c8&wp_cu=b1005792a416de1fbe1f17e5cf366b7d%7CB1FF71CA724A36FAE0530100007F88D6
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https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2022/9/7/2121408/-Ukraine-Update-Ukraine-rushes-toward-Kupiansk-Russia-s-logistical-hub
"Things are moving quickly in Ukraine, so you guys get a bonus update. Even better, it’s all great news! My Sunday update covered the first big moves of Ukraine’s multi-front counteroffensive, which I saw as the long-awaited culmination of Russia’s war effort. Mark Sumner mapped many of the changes on Tuesday, and this morning he updated big overnight advances. Since then, Ukraine has punched through Russian lines in the Kharkiv front and is romping in their rears. That is what prompted me to do a second Wednesday update.
To recap, Ukraine spent months talking about going on the offensive around Kherson. It was obviously a trap, so much so that the linked story is literally headlined “Russian lines recede south of Izyum as Russia rushes to potential Kherson trap.” The Kherson region is bound by several large rivers to the Russian-occupied south and east, with few bridges providing access.
It behooved Ukraine to draw as many Russian soldiers and equipment into Kherson oblast, to then trap them by taking out those few bridges. Russian forces would quickly run out of artillery shells, small ammo, food, water, spare parts, and fuel. Their fighting power diminished (especially with artillery), they would end up easy pickings for Ukrainian liberators.
Ukraine’s intent was obvious, everyone saw it coming, yet stupidly, Russia bought into the scheme hook, line, and sinker. It’s like a bad horror movie, where stupid teens make every obvious bad decision, and the audience thinks “no one is that stupid!” Russia is that stupid.
To be fair, Russia was in a bad place. Without Kherson, Russia would lose the only regional capital captured since the February 24 invasion. It would shatter Vladimir Putin’s grandiose notions of stretching the Russian empire all the way to Moldova. It would be a public relations catastrophe, betraying Russia’s weakness and inability to hold territory it considered part of Russia itself.
Reinforcing Kherson made sense, but here is where Ukraine caught the biggest break possible: No one expected Russia to send all their troops to Kherson."
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(https://i.kym-cdn.com/photos/images/newsfeed/001/429/010/a5f.jpeg)
Cautious optimism, though.
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(https://i.kym-cdn.com/photos/images/newsfeed/001/429/010/a5f.jpeg)
Cautious optimism, though.
LOL, yes, I admit to selective bias here.
Setting aside the tone of the article and even the words themselves, however, the maps alone map a pretty compelling argument, and those are sourced from multiple places. Still, yes, a grain of salt might be wise.
What I wonder about is, what is Putin next move at being pushed backwards?
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LOL, yes, I admit to selective bias here.
Setting aside the tone of the article and even the words themselves, however, the maps alone map a pretty compelling argument, and those are sourced from multiple places. Still, yes, a grain of salt might be wise.
What I wonder about is, what is Putin next move at being pushed backwards?
You ever see an animal backed into a corner?
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Well the whole thing has become a complete sh*tshow for Putin. To the point that any victory, if it means lopping off a piece of Ukraine, is going to be completely pyrrhic in nature. In just a matter of months, he has managed to get the US re-engaged in Europe's defense, get two longtime neutral countries to join NATO, turn Ukraine solidly pro-Western, and get western Europe to explore ways to not be dependent on Russia's only valuable export.
Great work Vlad.
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When you start sourcing military equipment from North Korea....
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Can we stop sending US money yet?
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Can we stop sending US money yet?
US government spending is imaginary. There is no functional difference between the US being $30T in debt and $30.1T in debt. Spend it all, let God sort 'em out.
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You ever see an animal backed into a corner?
Exactly.
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Can we stop sending US money yet?
This is the absolute cheapest way to weaken Putin until he has left the earth. And then hopefully Russia can move on from it's last 23 years.
Well the whole thing has become a complete sh*tshow for Putin. To the point that any victory, if it means lopping off a piece of Ukraine, is going to be completely pyrrhic in nature. In just a matter of months, he has managed to get the US re-engaged in Europe's defense, get two longtime neutral countries to join NATO, turn Ukraine solidly pro-Western, and get western Europe to explore ways to not be dependent on Russia's only valuable export.
Great work Vlad.
Vova is short for Vladimir, Vlad is short for Vladislav. ;D
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Can we stop sending US money yet?
Nope. Ukraine is on its way to being our 52nd state after Israel. Of course, there doesn't seem to be any accounting for how the money is being spent but a sketchy leader, but that's not our problem; just keep sending money. This "war" seems to be going the way of Iran/Iraq. It will be going well into the future.
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Nope. Ukraine is on its way to being our 52nd state after Israel. Of course, there doesn't seem to be any accounting for how the money is being spent but a sketchy leader, but that's not our problem; just keep sending money. This "war" seems to be going the way of Iran/Iraq. It will be going well into the future.
LOL, why are you putting "war" in quotation marks?
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LOL, why are you putting "war" in quotation marks?
Like father, like son.
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Nope. Ukraine is on its way to being our 52nd state after Israel. Of course, there doesn't seem to be any accounting for how the money is being spent but a sketchy leader, but that's not our problem; just keep sending money. This "war" seems to be going the way of Iran/Iraq. It will be going well into the future.
You have reached roqqet levels with this one.
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You have reached roqqet levels with this one.
…not so fast toewwr ukraine had hunters labtop and the “big guy” had ice creem freeZer brain but go ahead and watch the view
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…not so fast toewwr ukraine had hunters labtop and the “big guy” had ice creem freeZer brain but go ahead and watch the view
8 out of 10.
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This is the absolute cheapest way to weaken Putin until he has left the earth. And then hopefully Russia can move on from it's last 23 years.
Why are we worrying about weakening Putin?
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Why are we worrying about weakening Putin?
So he doesn't invade more former Soviet states.
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Why are we worrying about weakening Putin?
Because it is his goal to destabilize Western democracies? Because another goal is to reassemble the Soviet Union regardless of what the people the former Soviet bloc countries have to say about it? Because as part of the above, his goal is to destroy NATO?
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Because it is his goal to destabilize Western democracies? Because another goal is to reassemble the Soviet Union regardless of what the people the former Soviet bloc countries have to say about it? Because as part of the above, his goal is to destroy NATO?
Right. You either stand up to him now or deal with him later. And to get all realpolitik about it, standing up against him in Ukraine is a perfect place to do so. You don't have to go to all out war like you would if he invaded a NATO country. But he invaded a hornet's nest and we are just providing money and arms. And when this thing inevitably ends, we will provide money for Ukraine to rebuild.
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At the risk of falling for propaganda...
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1568319528232181761.html
"Addition: This is almost moving faster than I can write it. There are now (thank you to those who directed me to them) reports that UAF units are hitting Izium from the south with heavy fighting within the city limits. The entire tenor of the war in the east has changed."
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And this:
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2022/9/9/2121915/-Ukraine-Update-Ukraine-learned-combined-arms-maneuvers-but-at-great-sacrifice
You don't usually see good war snark, but the section about the hill the Wagner Group captured is worth the read.
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Now that Ukraine is scoring some pretty major victories, I worry that Putin will do something really insane and evil -- above and beyond his usual level of insanity and evilness.
How bad would it have to get for Russia for Putin to pull out nukes? Hopefully they're off the table, but he is Putin.
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Now that Ukraine is scoring some pretty major victories, I worry that Putin will do something really insane and evil -- above and beyond his usual level of insanity and evilness.
How bad would it have to get for Russia for Putin to pull out nukes? Hopefully they're off the table, but he is Putin.
That’s been my worry since the start.
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That has been the world's worry from the start.
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Maybe could, but he is a rich dictator. Why threaten his good life.
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Maybe could, but he is a rich dictator. Why threaten his good life.
You are using reason even as you talk about an unreasonable man.
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sE2qa96pq8I
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I don't see how Putin politically survives until the end of the year. If he isn't extremely careful, he will have open rebellion from Chechnya soon. And then you might see some of the other former Soviet states begin to feast on the corpse of Russia.
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Seems like a lot of the former Soviet republics in Asia see more of a future relating to China versus Russia.
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Seems like a lot of the former Soviet republics in Asia see more of a future relating to China versus Russia.
I think that was going to happen no matter. However, the Ukraine War seems to have accelerated the process.
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I don't see how Putin politically survives until the end of the year. If he isn't extremely careful, he will have open rebellion from Chechnya soon. And then you might see some of the other former Soviet states begin to feast on the corpse of Russia.
I went down this rabbit hole recently. It’s sort of confusing what signals Chechnya is sending and how strong they are. There’s a fair amount of internal stress there, so can they fight on two fronts? I know Kadyrov rules with an iron-fist but there was more opposition to him than I imagined.
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I went down this rabbit hole recently. It’s sort of confusing what signals Chechnya is sending and how strong they are. There’s a fair amount of internal stress there, so can they fight on two fronts? I know Kadyrov rules with an iron-fist but there was more opposition to him than I imagined.
And there is newly released audio of Kadyrov criticizing Putin and lamenting the difficulties in Ukraine. Also saying there is a serious disconnect between leadership and what is actually happening on the ground.
A very brazen statement from one of Putin's own.
This tells me that Kadyrov sees the war as lost and is shoring up his leadership to break away if things continue. If Chechnya breaks away, I wouldn't be shocked to see Georgia make a grab on South Ossetia and Abkhazia. The Georgian government is essentially pro Putin, but if dominoes start to fall their self interest will outstrip their loyalty to Putin.
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And there is newly released audio of Kadyrov criticizing Putin and lamenting the difficulties in Ukraine. Also saying there is a serious disconnect between leadership and what is actually happening on the ground.
A very brazen statement from one of Putin's own.
This tells me that Kadyrov sees the war as lost and is shoring up his leadership to break away if things continue. If Chechnya breaks away, I wouldn't be shocked to see Georgia make a grab on South Ossetia and Abkhazia. The Georgian government is essentially pro Putin, but if dominoes start to fall their self interest will outstrip their loyalty to Putin.
He changed his tune a few days later. I'm sure the FSB said something to him.
I can't see Kadyrov leading a Chechen break-away. He fancies himself way too much of a Russian ultra-national to do so. And, if he flips on Moscow, he will be out on an island. I'm very doubtful Chechen nationals would welcome him back to their side after Kadyrov and his father turned on them.
What his comments do illustrate IMO is the rising tension on Putin from the Russian nationalist community. They have been in a frenzy over the past month about the course of the war. They want a significant escalation in the conflict. Mass mobilization of the Russian people, martial law, a full-scale offensive on Ukraine, etc.
Many think that if a coup comes for Putin it will be from a party that seeks to end the conflict. I have my doubts. The longer this goes on and the worse it gets for the Russian forces, the higher the chances of a coup coming from the other side.
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Based on the stuff I've been reading about how the war has progressed, it looks like Douglas-Tyson, the Miracle on Ice and Nova-Georgetown might each be dropping a rung in the "greatest upsets of all time" category.
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Based on the stuff I've been reading about how the war has progressed, it looks like Douglas-Tyson, the Miracle on Ice and Nova-Georgetown might each be dropping a rung in the "greatest upsets of all time" category.
I don’t know if this is true. The strength of the Russian Army has always lied with numbers. Historically, at least the last few centuries, the myth hasn’t matched reality. It’s often been disorganized and undisciplined. We really underestimate the importance of understanding needing a reason to fight. The Ukrainian’s have it. Not sure the foot soldier of Russia has the heart for it.
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Some of the strongman luster is fading from Putin. He was notorious in the past for making world leaders sit and wait when they had a meeting with him. He did the same to Queen Elizabeth and the Pope.
This week at the SCO summit in Uzbekistan, the other world leaders there made him sit alone at the table and wait for them. He has truly been weakened (both at home and especially on the world stage) and I think there is at least a 50/50 chance he will fall. If it happens, it will happen quick. It won't be a long ordeal as he tries to hold on to power.
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I don’t know if this is true. The strength of the Russian Army has always lied with numbers. Historically, at least the last few centuries, the myth hasn’t matched reality. It’s often been disorganized and undisciplined. We really underestimate the importance of understanding needing a reason to fight. The Ukrainian’s have it. Not sure the foot soldier of Russia has the heart for it.
Russia also theoretically has the firepower -- nukes, of course, but also weaponry. But we've come to learn that a lot of their weapons were older, out of operation, etc. Plus, they didn't count on the world community being so willing to help Ukraine in that department. Putin thought he was gonna win this war in a week and that the U.S. and others wouldn't be willing to invest in what was surely gonna be a lost cause.
I sure don't know if Ukraine really has the upper hand here or not, but I'll admit this has surprised the hell out of me.
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Based on the stuff I've been reading about how the war has progressed, it looks like Douglas-Tyson, the Miracle on Ice and Nova-Georgetown might each be dropping a rung in the "greatest upsets of all time" category.
Not sure this is that accurate.
Remember, one can argue we lost in Afghanistan, and Iraq. Not to mention the Bay of Pigs.
None of those had the allied support of the entire world against the aggressor.
Invading a country period is a monumental task. Achieving a sustained victory in modern times is not common.
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Not sure this is that accurate.
Remember, one can argue we lost in Afghanistan, and Iraq. Not to mention the Bay of Pigs.
None of those had the allied support of the entire world against the aggressor.
Invading a country period is a monumental task. Achieving a sustained victory in modern times is not common.
One can argue lots of things. Thankfully, no one can argue that we lost WW2!
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Because of the chip shortage and supply chain issue, Russia cannot build new tanks, new smart weapons as they use up their pre war stock.
I think learning this lesson is an unspoken reason behind the microchip manufacturing bill. We need domestic chip production to supply modern weaponry.
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Because of the chip shortage and supply chain issue, Russia cannot build new tanks, new smart weapons as they use up their pre war stock.
I think learning this lesson is an unspoken reason behind the microchip manufacturing bill. We need domestic chip production to supply modern weaponry.
I doubt if most Americans even realize when things like this are done for the military.
Another was the Interstate Highway System under Eisenhower.
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It clearly has domestic benefits as well. Look at auto manufacturing right now.
So, I think the purpose was two-fold, but the military facet was not discussed
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I doubt if most Americans even realize when things like this are done for the military.
Another was the Interstate Highway System under Eisenhower.
At least it wasn't over him!
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It clearly has domestic benefits as well. Look at auto manufacturing right now.
So, I think the purpose was two-fold, but the military facet was not discussed
It is absolutely a national security issue.
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Shiz is about to get wild. Russians know something.
Google searches for “how to leave Russia”, and “mobilization” are through the roof in Russia right now.
Putin was supposed to make a special announcement tonight but has changed that to tomorrow.
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Mandatory conscription.
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Mandatory conscription.
Has failed most Russian Tsar’s through history. Worked in WWII because the Motherland was invaded. This isn’t it
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They are also calling for referendums in the occupied territories. These will of course be sham referendums, which will eventually be framed as an annexation of these territories into Russia with any attack being an attack on the motherland itself. Putin is betting that this will either rally Russians around the cause - or will give Ukraine pause to stop the war at this point. (My guess is that it does neither.)
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They are also calling for referendums in the occupied territories. These will of course be sham referendums, which will eventually be framed as an annexation of these territories into Russia with any attack being an attack on the motherland itself. Putin is betting that this will either rally Russians around the cause - or will give Ukraine pause to stop the war at this point. (My guess is that it does neither.)
They need to hold the fake referendums now because it seems increasingly likely they won't hold the territory for long.
https://twitter.com/TrentTelenko/status/1572309056026726402
"The various Russian ground units are melting under the pressure of captured Russian artillery shells that the fall of Kharkiv Oblast delivered to Ukraine, along with the railway rolling stock to move the captured shell stocks near the Donbass front lines.
The impressed Russian colonial militias and the Russian Army's most recent conscript & contract replacements are nearly untrained, so the Russian & Russian colonial infantry forces are s--t without 10-to-1 fire superiority."
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Shiz is about to get wild. Russians know something.
Google searches for “how to leave Russia”, and “mobilization” are through the roof in Russia right now.
Putin was supposed to make a special announcement tonight but has changed that to tomorrow.
And now it's been canceled altogether.
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Russia needs the referendums to officially annex the territories so they can claim - when Ukraine does anything in those areas, that NATO weapons are being used on Russian soil. Thus far, whether true or not, Ukraine has not claimed responsibility for any of the bizarre explosions that have taken place in Crimea or at arms depots on the Russian side of the border. Ukraine also committed to the US and Germany that NATO weapons would not be used against Russian targets inside Russia. As a result, the annexation creates some more complexity than currently exists and will need to be formally rejected by NATO and the EU political organization for Ukraine to comfortably proceed to gain territory after the annexation.
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And nuke threats. How did anybody ever think Putin was the good guy?
Please, if you did, explain the reasoning.
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And nuke threats. How did anybody ever think Putin was the good guy?
Please, if you did, explain the reasoning.
Well……
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And nuke threats. How did anybody ever think Putin was the good guy?
Please, if you did, explain the reasoning.
Trump said it was so. He wouldn’t lie.
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And nuke threats. How did anybody ever think Putin was the good guy?
Please, if you did, explain the reasoning.
Something something NATO is evil something something protecting their borders.
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Also something about a laptop.
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And nuke threats. How did anybody ever think Putin was the good guy?
Please, if you did, explain the reasoning.
Fox News, Monday through Friday, 7 p.m. Central Time.
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And nuke threats. How did anybody ever think Putin was the good guy?
Please, if you did, explain the reasoning.
They are called Tankies.
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They are called Tankies.
lol no. Just no.
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About 1300 protestors arrested in Russian cities including Moscow. Let's hope the protests spread despite the crackdown.
Reports of one-way flights going for up to $16,000.
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About 1300 protestors arrested in Russian cities including Moscow. Let's hope the protests spread despite the crackdown.
Reports of one-way flights going for up to $16,000.
The rich have fled, and now only the poor peasants remain. And the government and culture has made them apathetic.
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The rich have fled, and now only the poor peasants remain. And the government and culture and the vodka has made them apathetic.
Not meant as a joke...
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IMO when you see places like India and China say "hey this isn't a good idea," and Turkey say "yeah, you got to end this and give back Crimea," you know you are cooked.
And Putin is cooked. I'd be very surprised if he is still in charge by year's end. Mobilizing reserves to fight in an unpopular war without the equipment to give them is a desperate move.
We can all name dumb foreign policy / military moves of the past. This may go down as one of the dumbest of all time. Clearly the sanctions are working. While Russia may be able to sell their natural gas, they aren't able to buy anything of any value to help them here.
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Historically Russia was able to wear down and eventually beat invaders through sheer numbers (and a heavy dose of Russian winters). It is an entirely different proposition to send essentially untrained conscripts to fight in a foreign country against highly motivated, well-trained (now, thanks to the U.S.) forces defending their homes and family.
Cannon fodder doesn't begin to paint the picture of the horrific losses those conscripts are going to take.
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Historically Russia was able to wear down and eventually beat invaders through sheer numbers (and a heavy dose of Russian winters). It is an entirely different proposition to send essentially untrained conscripts to fight in a foreign country against highly motivated, well-trained (now, thanks to the U.S.) forces defending their homes and family.
Cannon fodder doesn't begin to paint the picture of the horrific losses those conscripts are going to take.
An old classic movie, Dr. Zhivago, has a scene in it of retreating Russian troops in WWI, badly beaten, meeting up with fresh troops heading to the front. The officers of the fresh troops order the retreating troops to turn around, but there is a mutiny during which the officers are killed and all the soldiers head back East.
The Tsar may have well been doomed anyway, but the losses in WWI set the stage for the Russian Revolution. I know it's quite a stretch but let's hope that somehow there is a 21st century version of the government being overthrown.
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An old classic movie, Dr. Zhivago, has a scene in it of retreating Russian troops in WWI, badly beaten, meeting up with fresh troops heading to the front. The officers of the fresh troops order the retreating troops to turn around, but there is a mutiny during which the officers are killed and all the soldiers head back East.
The Tsar may have well been doomed anyway, but the losses in WWI set the stage for the Russian Revolution. I know it's quite a stretch but let's hope that somehow there is a 21st century version of the government being overthrown.
I don’t think it’s a stretch at all
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The question is: "Is it for something better?"
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The question is: "Is it for something better?"
Very fair question. No doubt things could get worse. Russian history is chock full of aggression and conquest, and Putin's reference to this taps into far too many Russians' psyche. It's as if their Viking forebearers from the 800's-the Rus-have passed on their bloodlust all the way into present day.
I'm hoping that maybe, just maybe the Russian people will choose to try a different route if they get the chance. It's very much a longshot.
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An old classic movie, Dr. Zhivago, has a scene in it of retreating Russian troops in WWI, badly beaten, meeting up with fresh troops heading to the front. The officers of the fresh troops order the retreating troops to turn around, but there is a mutiny during which the officers are killed and all the soldiers head back East.
The Tsar may have well been doomed anyway, but the losses in WWI set the stage for the Russian Revolution. I know it's quite a stretch but let's hope that somehow there is a 21st century version of the government being overthrown.
I believe he will be ousted and when it happens there will be no revolution. Just another strongman will step in and it will be over in a day or two.
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The only guy who even thinks he has or can consolidate enough power to oust Putin is Kadyrov.
And that would be worse than Putin.
There is no Nelson Mandela waiting in a prison somewhere.
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The only guy who even thinks he has or can consolidate enough power to oust Putin is Kadyrov.
And that would be worse than Putin.
There is no Nelson Mandela waiting in a prison somewhere.
Worst take in the thread.
0.0% chance Kadyrov has support anywhere besides a border territory in the caucuses. And even there he isn't particularly well liked.
Suggesting he has any support in Russia proper is absolutely wrong.
Chances are that it is just another man from the FSB that will continue to run Russia as the gangster state that it currently functions as.
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Russian-held regions of Ukraine vote whether to join Russia
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Russian-held regions of Ukraine vote whether to join Russia
Yeah, not really
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Worst take in the thread.
0.0% chance Kadyrov has support anywhere besides a border territory in the caucuses. And even there he isn't particularly well liked.
Suggesting he has any support in Russia proper is absolutely wrong.
Chances are that it is just another man from the FSB that will continue to run Russia as the gangster state that it currently functions as.
I didn't say "support", I said power. The Chechen diaspora in Russia runs most of the drugs, vice, labor hire, illegal money lending, and nearly all forms of "problem solving" throughout the entire country, using a combination of legitimate and "black" businesses including paramilitary forces. No-one likes them, but they are everywhere.
There are no other Russians - Pols, businessmen, oligarchs or otherwise - who can project power and control the way the Chechens can. Most of the Oligarchs have been running pretty clean businesses for the last 10-15 years and have been much more focused on modernizing and upgrading their businesses (and getting money out of the country) than on the balance of power, because there was no opportunity for input on the balance of power.
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https://www.aljazeera.com/amp/opinions/2022/9/25/putins-suicidal-gamble
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Russian state TV is using clips of Fox News host Tucker Carlson to promote the country's war against Ukraine amid protests against Vladimir Putin's partial mobilization.
https://www.newsweek.com/russian-state-tv-using-tucker-carlson-clips-promote-war-unrest-grows-1746067
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Probably quoting Greenwald, too.
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Probably quoting Greenwald, too.
And Snowden.
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And Snowden.
The newest Russian citizen. Wonder if he gets drafted?
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That would be epic if he was granted citizenship and then sent to the front
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That would be epic if he was granted citizenship and then sent to the front
He never impressed me as the soldier type.
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He never impressed me as the soldier type.
Wasn’t he a SEAL or some sort of special forces?
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Wasn’t he a SEAL or some sort of special forces?
He was in the Army for 4 and a half months. Broke his leg in training for the special forces and was discharged.
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He was in the Army for 4 and a half months. Broke his leg in training for the special forces and was discharged.
Ah, gotcha. Thought there was something, thanks.
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Moving this here, to not possibly contaminate the inflation thread, but is there any chance European viewpoints on Russia may shift if the energy prices remain as crazy as they are, or even get worse?
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Moving this here, to not possibly contaminate the inflation thread, but is there any chance European viewpoints on Russia may shift if the energy prices remain as crazy as they are, or even get worse?
Unfortunately, yes IMO. People's pocketbooks will definitely impact their views.
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He was in the Army for 4 and a half months. Broke his leg in training for the special forces and was discharged.
actually he lied about that too. He was discharged for shin splints and didn't make it through basic army boot camp
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Yes, but I predict most will lay the blame at Putin's feet, where it belongs.
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Moving this here, to not possibly contaminate the inflation thread, but is there any chance European viewpoints on Russia may shift if the energy prices remain as crazy as they are, or even get worse?
Yes. If that happens, it would be all too easy for Americans to say that the Europeans' will weakened. They are facing the very real possibility of wrecked economies. At the least, they will be wearing heavy sweaters and piling on blankets at night this winter due to sky high utility costs. I hope they stick it out, but let's refrain from being judgmental if the European leaders, listening to their voters and fearing that they will be thrown out of office if they do not change course, ease up on Russia. Of course, this is exactly what Putin is hoping for.
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Moving this here, to not possibly contaminate the inflation thread, but is there any chance European viewpoints on Russia may shift if the energy prices remain as crazy as they are, or even get worse?
It's a huge concern. Europeans have been stupid and fickle. First they want to transition too quickly to "green" power and in doing so have shut down a lot of coal plants and some nuke plants, then they became over-reliant on gas because the other sources of power are both inconsistent and expensive, and now the politicians are concerned the masses will protest as the energy prices rise because there are not enough reliable sources of power.
Not sure who damaged the Nord Stream pipelines yesterday but that's possibly the best thing politically for European government leaders because they can blame Putin now for the shortage of gas and possibly maintain support for Ukraine through the winter despite the inevitable power shortages.
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This from a NYT article:
There is some good news. Eurozone countries have reduced their reliance on Russian gas to less than 10 percent from about 40 percent last winter, according to Zongqiang Luo, a senior analyst at Rystad Energy. He added that European countries were two months ahead of schedule in filling their gas storage reserves to above 80 percent — and, in some cases, above 90 percent.
But if Gazprom follows through on its threat to shut down the third pipeline to Western Europe, businesses and homeowners would feel it. “Whether Europe can survive the winter will be highly dependent upon voluntary gas cuts,” Luo said. Any cuts to business output could leave the economic bloc more vulnerable to recession.
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Not sure who damaged the Nord Stream pipelines yesterday but that's possibly the best thing politically for European government leaders because they can blame Putin now for the shortage of gas and possibly maintain support for Ukraine through the winter despite the inevitable power shortages.
Linking blaming Putin and (possibly) maintaining support for Ukraine works fine in theory, but I think in reality the link will not work. The leaks are NOT good news and, I think, could end up resulting in caving in at least partially to Putin.
In addition to some poor energy decisions made over many years by the Europeans, I think an oft overlooked factor is Putin's history of offering cushy, 7 figure salaries as board members on Russian energy companies to former PMs of European countries. I believe the offers were made before the PMs left office. Germany's Shroeder is Exhibit A. Until recent years, he was publicly very proud of his friendship with his patron Putin. He reminds me of someone else who was very proud of being a friend of Putin.
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Linking blaming Putin and (possibly) maintaining support for Ukraine works fine in theory, but I think in reality the link will not work. The leaks are NOT good news and, I think, could end up resulting in caving in at least partially to Putin.
Right. When Russia annexes the current territories it holds due to the "referendum," and the war bogs down in the winter at the same times bills are at their peak, European sentiment could turn to "can we encourage Ukraine to accept these new borders permanently in return for peace?"
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In addition to some poor energy decisions made over many years by the Europeans, I think an oft overlooked factor is Putin's history of offering cushy, 7 figure salaries as board members on Russian energy companies to former PMs of European countries. I believe the offers were made before the PMs left office. Germany's Shroeder is Exhibit A. Until recent years, he was publicly very proud of his friendship with his patron Putin. He reminds me of someone else who was very proud of being a friend of Putin.
Ironic cause Shroeder went to Russia boasting about not being as friendly as Helmut Kohl was with Yeltsin...then becomes besties with Vladdy like 2 years later
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Ironic cause Shroeder went to Russia boasting about not being as friendly as Helmut Kohl was with Yeltsin...then becomes besties with Vladdy like 2 years later
Once the Germans joined the Vlad Fan Club, it cleared the way for the rest of Europe, as Germany has the largest economy. I believe Vlad offered board seats to at least one Frenchman and one Italian soon after they left office.
I guess we really need to focus on the here and now, but the Europeans are not innocent bystanders in this mess of having been so dependent on Russia for oil and gas. The handwriting was on the wall, but they pretended not to read it.
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Once the Germans joined the Vlad Fan Club, it cleared the way for the rest of Europe, as Germany has the largest economy. I believe Vlad offered board seats to at least one Frenchman and one Italian soon after they left office.
I guess we really need to focus on the here and now, but the Europeans are not innocent bystanders in this mess of having been so dependent on Russia for oil and gas. The handwriting was on the wall, but they pretended not to read it.
They made assumptions that Russia would act like a normal country. Even Mitt Romney got a laugh here when he warned of Russia though. Even though it retrospect it was obvious to see how this played out.
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Unfortunately, yes IMO. People's pocketbooks will definitely impact their views.
This is one of my concerns regarding everything going on. While it is true that this has been a major failure by Putin and Russia, one outcome could still actually be increased world power in some regards.
See the deal with the Taliban today in Afghanistan. I think you will see other countries who really do not care about Europe, look to make similar deals. With prices world-wide where they are right now, and both food and energy shortages. A lot of less-advanced countries very likely may economically align with Russia for cheap food and oil/gas.
I think that in part was in their original goals. 1) Take what they want from Ukraine (failed miserably). 2) Precipitate a food and energy crisis that strengthens their economic ties to developing nations, while the US decreases exports to keep costs down at home.
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This is one of my concerns regarding everything going on. While it is true that this has been a major failure by Putin and Russia, one outcome could still actually be increased world power in some regards.
See the deal with the Taliban today in Afghanistan. I think you will see other countries who really do not care about Europe, look to make similar deals. With prices world-wide where they are right now, and both food and energy shortages. A lot of less-advanced countries very likely may economically align with Russia for cheap food and oil/gas.
I think that in part was in their original goals. 1) Take what they want from Ukraine (failed miserably). 2) Precipitate a food and energy crisis that strengthens their economic ties to developing nations, while the US decreases exports to keep costs down at home.
With regard to 2) above, I think Putin believed he would get little to no resistance in invading Ukraine. And certainly the signals from tfg were just that, including calling the invasion brilliant. I said before, if Putin had only annexed the regions he had already previously controlled in Donbass I think that would have been the case--there wouldn't have been nearly the outcry he is facing. But her decided to try to eat the elephant all at once, which was a tragic mistake for the entire world.
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This is one of my concerns regarding everything going on. While it is true that this has been a major failure by Putin and Russia, one outcome could still actually be increased world power in some regards.
See the deal with the Taliban today in Afghanistan. I think you will see other countries who really do not care about Europe, look to make similar deals. With prices world-wide where they are right now, and both food and energy shortages. A lot of less-advanced countries very likely may economically align with Russia for cheap food and oil/gas.
I think that in part was in their original goals. 1) Take what they want from Ukraine (failed miserably). 2) Precipitate a food and energy crisis that strengthens their economic ties to developing nations, while the US decreases exports to keep costs down at home.
They can sell oil all they want to the developing world. The problem is they can't really buy anything of value with the cash they are making. That is the essential problem with the sanctions from Russia's POV.
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They can sell oil all they want to the developing world. The problem is they can't really buy anything of value with the cash they are making. That is the essential problem with the sanctions from Russia's POV.
I think China is going to have more influence in developing countries. They probably do already.
And selling more oil to developing nations will just create a bigger secondary market.
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I think China is going to have more influence in developing countries. They probably do already.
And selling more oil to developing nations will just create a bigger secondary market.
Yea, China's Belt and Road Initiative already far surpasses any influence that Russia may develop and exert with oil or nat resources moving forward.
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There's an Onion-like pundit in Russia who calls himself Darth Putin. Here are two of his one-liners:
"Stop comparing me to Hitler. He kept things he annexed for several years. I can barely manage several hours." @DarthPutinKGB
"The only people now afraid of the Russian military are Russian men of military age." @DarthPutinKGB
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There's an Onion-like pundit in Russia who calls himself Darth Putin. Here are two of his one-liners:
"Stop comparing me to Hitler. He kept things he annexed for several years. I can barely manage several hours." @DarthPutinKGB
"The only people now afraid of the Russian military are Russian men of military age." @DarthPutinKGB
You forgot his big tagline.
"I remain a master strategist!"
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There's an Onion-like pundit in Russia who calls himself Darth Putin. Here are two of his one-liners:
"Stop comparing me to Hitler. He kept things he annexed for several years. I can barely manage several hours." @DarthPutinKGB
"The only people now afraid of the Russian military are Russian men of military age." @DarthPutinKGB
Ukraine retook Lyman after Russia “annexed” it.
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Is Putin actually crazy enough to use nuclear weapons the longer this plays out? I'm guessing he will amp up this nuclear threat as things continue to go poorly. I never thought Vlad was completely delusional but maybe he loses it completely?
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Is Putin actually crazy enough to use nuclear weapons the longer this plays out? I'm guessing he will amp up this nuclear threat as things continue to go poorly. I never thought Vlad was completely delusional but maybe he loses it completely?
He certainly may be desperate enough. International condemnation might be the better of two options, because he will be dead if he loses this thing. Again, just a stupid exercise from not only a geopolitical and economic point of view, but the amount of human suffering this is causing is just off the charts.
But I guess he still has Roger Waters on his side.
https://www.rollingstone.com/music/music-features/roger-waters-ukrainian-kill-list-1234604081/
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He certainly may be desperate enough. International condemnation might be the better of two options, because he will be dead if he loses this thing. Again, just a stupid exercise from not only a geopolitical and economic point of view, but the amount of human suffering this is causing is just off the charts.
But I guess he still has Roger Waters on his side.
https://www.rollingstone.com/music/music-features/roger-waters-ukrainian-kill-list-1234604081/
Roger has been on that brain rot for a while.
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But I guess he still has Roger Waters on his side.
He has far too many U.S. politicians and Fox News personalities on his side, too.
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He has far too many U.S. politicians and Fox News personalities on his side, too.
The Tankies
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The Tankies
Again, you're using this wrong.
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Is Putin actually crazy enough to use nuclear weapons the longer this plays out? I'm guessing he will amp up this nuclear threat as things continue to go poorly. I never thought Vlad was completely delusional but maybe he loses it completely?
this will have to go much further for him to use them. US has made it clear that's a red line that as the tactical nukes move, they'll be targeted quickly and struck. This has to be a slow methodical grind and Ukraine is doing it very well
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this will have to go much further for him to use them. US has made it clear that's a red line that as the tactical nukes move, they'll be targeted quickly and struck. This has to be a slow methodical grind and Ukraine is doing it very well
I think you are probably right.
On the other hand, I think one of the reasons for the annexation of the four Ukrainian territories is that the Russian Constitution only allows for the use of nuclear weapons if there is an attack on Russian soil. That criteria has now been met.
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Several British and American intelligence reports of major dissension in Russian military and political circles. I know that if Putin is ousted, his replacement will not be a Gorbachev clone, but if a new leader declares victory while quietly withdrawing from Ukraine, that works for now.
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Happy 70th Putin, will you see 71?
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Happy 70th Putin, will you see 71?
Let's hope for a "surprise" BD party today.
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Happy 70th Putin, will you see 71?
I'd prefer he rotted in prison, but dudes like him don't usually get that sort of treatment.
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Putin accidentally fall out of window?
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Let's hope for a "surprise" BD party today.
Cheering for the death of a justly and fairly elected foreign leader of a sovereign nation? How despicable.
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Cheering for the death of a justly and fairly elected foreign leader of a sovereign nation? How despicable.
Why...why thank you! That's one of the nicest things anyone has called me on Scoop.
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It’s going to start snowing in this thread
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Cheering for the death of a justly and fairly elected foreign leader of a sovereign nation? How despicable.
That's getting to being close to Rico's schtick.
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That's getting to being close to Rico's schtick.
Nah. I'm fine with Putin being sent to Siberia. Not calling for his assassination, but honestly- that would not bother me one bit. My "surprise" birthday comment can be interpreted any way one chooses. I just want him gowne.
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This was a nice birthday fireworks display.
https://twitter.com/ralee85/status/1578605975979708416?s=61&t=uASLwVG08zPkiP1BhY25eA
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Kerch Bridge to Crimea is down. Russian main supply route to most of occupied Ukraine
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Kerch Bridge to Crimea is down. Russian main supply route to most of occupied Ukraine
Looks like the damage will be fixed quickly but that’s a big psychological blow.
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Intelligence announces numerous arrests of military personnel in Moscow
https://news.yahoo.com/intelligence-announces-numerous-arrests-military-144705319.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZmx5ZXJ0YWxrLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAGkqB_yom8Z9Ramy21ScmVyBjiL5u8SHwbeul1a59zlIkPIOWjeqzUzMY3QkFXDHrMfeFywUKpm6EQlnFTPEoyNAIKbHSdd9YgULWaTDNpC4cYuCU-9_-ueidVXQsV0jLc5fAIVRWs4lGo8q07e2i1orS25hBDKn384y4eebjXc8
Units of the Dzerzhinsky operational division – the elite of the Russian Guard – are reported to have entered the city. They are allegedly moving towards the centre together with police units.
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Some quality birthday trolling.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11294211/Happy-birthday-Mr-President-Zelensky-aide-mocks-Vladimir-Putin-Marilyn-Monroe-rendition.html
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Some quality birthday trolling.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11294211/Happy-birthday-Mr-President-Zelensky-aide-mocks-Vladimir-Putin-Marilyn-Monroe-rendition.html
That is hysterically funny! ;D Thanks for posting. I'm glad that I finished my coffee before seeing it or I would be soaked.
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So we're cool with US taxpayer money being used to carry out ISIS style terror bombings that kill innocent civilians?
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Putin is the bad guy here. Always has been. Everything that is happening now is a result of his crime against the world.
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So we're cool with US taxpayer money being used to carry out ISIS style terror bombings that kill innocent civilians?
Yes
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Putin is the bad guy here. Always has been.
Your childlike understanding of good and evil makes you quite easy to propagandize.
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You believing Putin is the good guy shows you have already given up rational thought for the cult.
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So we're cool with US taxpayer money being used to carry out ISIS style terror bombings that kill innocent civilians?
I didn’t realize we were funding Putin.
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You believing Putin is the good guy shows you have already given up rational thought for the cult.
I don't think there is a good guy in this war.
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I don't think there is a good guy in this war.
Which one is a greater threat to the world?
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I don't think there is a good guy in this war.
There is one that is significantly less good. And his country invaded another sovereign country.
I am interested to hear what you think we should be doing here.
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I don't think there is a good guy in this war.
You don't think Putin is the "bad guy"?
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I don't think there is a good guy in this war.
Whoa.
Are there good guys in any war?
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I don't think there is a good guy in this war.
Well, months ago one prominent American said that Putin was a "genius" and "savvy" to start this war by positioning himself to take a large chunk of the country, so there's that.
Maybe you have a point, provided that we ignore that only one of the two leaders has nukes and is threatening to use them. Oh, the fact that one is defending his country and the other is trying to add it to his country? Irrelevant!
You win. Let's go with your equivalency.
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I don't think there is a good guy in this war.
Its possible to be isolationist without steering into moral relativity oblivion. My unsolicited advice is to put your energies into exploring that.
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I don't think there is a good guy in this war.
wint
@dril
the wise man bowed his head solemnly and spoke: "theres actually zero difference between good & bad things. you imbecile. you fcking moron"
7:52 PM · Jun 1, 2014
·Twitter Web Client
https://twitter.com/dril/status/473265809079693312?s=20&t=AIbB2vVBLvOmAZztjEWabg
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Its possible to be isolationist without steering into moral relativity oblivion. My unsolicited advice is to put your energies into exploring that.
And my unsolicited advice to you is to put your energies into exploring 20th century history, of which you are either woefully ignorant or totally dismissive of. How did isolationism work in stopping Hitler? Keep your head in the sand if that makes you happy.
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And my unsolicited advice to you is to put your energies into exploring 20th century history, of which you are either woefully ignorant or totally dismissive of. How did isolationism work in stopping Hitler? Keep your head in the sand if that makes you happy.
Woof. Just highlighting to our friend Boozeman that a person can take the position that we should be doing less in Ukraine without also having to believe that Ukraine is just as bad as Putin's Russia. That's not actually my personal opinion, but its one that I can engage with. But hey, I appreciate a kneejerk proof of Godwin's law as much as the next guy, so thanks for that.
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Woof. Just highlighting to our friend Boozeman that a person can take the position that we should be doing less in Ukraine without also having to believe that Ukraine is just as bad as Putin's Russia. That's not actually my personal opinion, but its one that I can engage with. But hey, I appreciate a kneejerk proof of Godwin's law as much as the next guy, so thanks for that.
Nice try. but no cigar.
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So we're cool with US taxpayer money being used to carry out ISIS style terror bombings that kill innocent civilians?
Narrator: It's not.
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Its possible to be isolationist without steering into moral relativity oblivion. My unsolicited advice is to put your energies into exploring that.
"The ultimate tragedy is not the oppression and cruelty by the bad people but the silence over that by the good people."
- MLK
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I truly don't understand the responses. That I am an isolationist? That there is no reasonable debate to be had on the degree of involvement we should have in Ukraine? Here I thought I was criticizing Boozeman's moral equivalency but I guess I'm on his team for saying that the best path to "we should do less in Ukraine" is not "Ukraine and Putin are the same"?
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I truly don't understand the responses. That I am an isolationist? That there is no reasonable debate to be had on the degree of involvement we should have in Ukraine? Here I thought I was criticizing Boozeman's moral equivalency but I guess I'm on his team for saying that the best path to "we should do less in Ukraine" is not "Ukraine and Putin are the same"?
FWIW, I think your viewpoints have been mischaracterized here by some.
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I truly don't understand the responses. That I am an isolationist? That there is no reasonable debate to be had on the degree of involvement we should have in Ukraine? Here I thought I was criticizing Boozeman's moral equivalency but I guess I'm on his team for saying that the best path to "we should do less in Ukraine" is not "Ukraine and Putin are the same"?
My point is that isolationism requires, if not moral relativism, a willingness to accept oppression and cruelty.
To be fair, the U.S. cannot intervene in every instance of oppression and cruelty around the world, and there have been far too many instances when we've been on the side of the cruel and oppressive.
But when opposing oppression and cruelty also happens to coincide with our national interests, arguing for isolationism (which, it shall be noted, has never been an effective foreign policy) seems foolish to me.
That said, perhaps the confusion is that while you say you want "reasonable debate," you haven't actually explained WHY you think it's best we do less in Ukraine. What, in your mind, is the upside of bettering Russia's chances of success? How are U.S. interests served in allowing a hostile takeover of a European Democracy (yes, an imperfect one, but still). How are we better off with an emboldened Russia pressed up further against our allies?
I'll hang up listen.
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My point is that isolationism requires, if not moral relativism, a willingness to accept oppression and cruelty.
To be fair, the U.S. cannot intervene in every instance of oppression and cruelty around the world, and there have been far too many instances when we've been on the side of the cruel and oppressive.
But when opposing oppression and cruelty also happens to coincide with our national interests, arguing for isolationism (which, it shall be noted, has never been an effective foreign policy) seems foolish to me.
That said, perhaps the confusion is that while you say you want "reasonable debate," you haven't actually explained WHY you think it's best we do less in Ukraine. What, in your mind, is the upside of bettering Russia's chances of success? How are U.S. interests served in allowing a hostile takeover of a European Democracy (yes, an imperfect one, but still). How are we better off with an emboldened Russia pressed up further against our allies?
I'll hang up listen.
MuBurrow never said this
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MuBurrow never said this
NM
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Woof. Just highlighting to our friend Boozeman that a person can take the position that we should be doing less in Ukraine without also having to believe that Ukraine is just as bad as Putin's Russia. That's not actually my personal opinion, but its one that I can engage with. But hey, I appreciate a kneejerk proof of Godwin's law as much as the next guy, so thanks for that.
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MuBurrow never said this
If that's true, then I misunderstood and he can let me know.
My, perhaps faulty, assumption is that defending isolationism is, by default, defending doing less in Ukraine.
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Its possible to be isolationist without steering into moral relativity oblivion. My unsolicited advice is to put your energies into exploring that.
I am all for being isolationist when it is our strategic interest to be isolationist. Unfortunately, I don't think this is one of those times.
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If we were more "isolationist" this war wouldn't even be happening. We've had four administrations in a row that have taken steps to bring Ukraine into the NATO fold despite loud objections from Russia.
Bush backed membership for Ukraine and Georgia in NATO membership which prompted the invasion of Georgia.
During Obama's tenure we orchestrated the Maiden Revolution which ousted a Russian friendly government and installed one friendly to NATO. Subsequently Russia annexed Crimea. Obama then started providing direct aid to Ukraine, but no weapons. Obama seemed to understand the situation the best when he said the following .
[img]https://ibb.co/W2H2SCZ/[img]
Trump really ramped up things when he started providing direct military aid and weapons to Ukraine and began pressuring European countries to stop importing Russian gas. Hilariously, he was called a Russian puppet while he was doing this.
Now we have Biden and we're in a full blown proxy war with a nuclear power. Tens of thousands dead and we're the closest to nuclear war we've been since the Cuban Missile Crisis and I have yet to see really anyone on the NATO side talking about a peaceful resolution. Things just keep escalating back and forth and people are talking about good guys and bad guys like it's a marvel movie.
I have never and still don't understand why Ukraine is so important to the US. I get why it's important to Russia. Try to imagine how the US would react if China announced to the world that they were going to join a military alliance with Mexico, then coordinated a coup to install a Chinese friendly government and started pumping Mexico full of weapons. I don't think that would go over very well.
The truely sick people are those that support the war as a way to weaken Russia while not sacrificing any US lives. Just despicable people who don't give a flying fvck about Ukraine and it's people.
My endgame is a way towards peace. Russua will gain territory in Ukraine and Ukraine will not be joining NATO. Everyone else wants Russia completely out of Ukraine and for Putin to be taken out. If we go down that road I think the nukes will fly. I don't think the sovereignty of Eastern Ukraine is worth a nuclear war.
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If we were more "isolationist" this war wouldn't even be happening. We've had four administrations in a row that have taken steps to bring Ukraine into the NATO fold despite loud objections from Russia.
Bush backed membership for Ukraine and Georgia in NATO membership which prompted the invasion of Georgia.
During Obama's tenure we orchestrated the Maiden Revolution which ousted a Russian friendly government and installed one friendly to NATO. Subsequently Russia annexed Crimea. Obama then started providing direct aid to Ukraine, but no weapons. Obama seemed to understand the situation the best when he said the following .
[img]https://ibb.co/W2H2SCZ/[img]
Trump really ramped up things when he started providing direct military aid and weapons to Ukraine and began pressuring European countries to stop importing Russian gas. Hilariously, he was called a Russian puppet while he was doing this.
Now we have Biden and we're in a full blown proxy war with a nuclear power. Tens of thousands dead and we're the closest to nuclear war we've been since the Cuban Missile Crisis and I have yet to see really anyone on the NATO side talking about a peaceful resolution. Things just keep escalating back and forth and people are talking about good guys and bad guys like it's a marvel movie.
I have never and still don't understand why Ukraine is so important to the US. I get why it's important to Russia. Try to imagine how the US would react if China announced to the world that they were going to join a military alliance with Mexico, then coordinated a coup to install a Chinese friendly government and started pumping Mexico full of weapons. I don't think that would go over very well.
The truely sick people are those that support the war as a way to weaken Russia while not sacrificing any US lives. Just despicable people who don't give a flying fvck about Ukraine and it's people.
My endgame is a way towards peace. Russua will gain territory in Ukraine and Ukraine will not be joining NATO. Everyone else wants Russia completely out of Ukraine and for Putin to be taken out. If we go down that road I think the nukes will fly. I don't think the sovereignty of Eastern Ukraine is worth a nuclear war.
You’re wrong
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If we were more "isolationist" this war wouldn't even be happening. We've had four administrations in a row that have taken steps to bring Ukraine into the NATO fold despite loud objections from Russia.
Bush backed membership for Ukraine and Georgia in NATO membership which prompted the invasion of Georgia.
During Obama's tenure we orchestrated the Maiden Revolution which ousted a Russian friendly government and installed one friendly to NATO. Subsequently Russia annexed Crimea. Obama then started providing direct aid to Ukraine, but no weapons. Obama seemed to understand the situation the best when he said the following .
[img]https://ibb.co/W2H2SCZ/[img]
Trump really ramped up things when he started providing direct military aid and weapons to Ukraine and began pressuring European countries to stop importing Russian gas. Hilariously, he was called a Russian puppet while he was doing this.
Now we have Biden and we're in a full blown proxy war with a nuclear power. Tens of thousands dead and we're the closest to nuclear war we've been since the Cuban Missile Crisis and I have yet to see really anyone on the NATO side talking about a peaceful resolution. Things just keep escalating back and forth and people are talking about good guys and bad guys like it's a marvel movie.
I have never and still don't understand why Ukraine is so important to the US. I get why it's important to Russia. Try to imagine how the US would react if China announced to the world that they were going to join a military alliance with Mexico, then coordinated a coup to install a Chinese friendly government and started pumping Mexico full of weapons. I don't think that would go over very well.
The truely sick people are those that support the war as a way to weaken Russia while not sacrificing any US lives. Just despicable people who don't give a flying fvck about Ukraine and it's people.
My endgame is a way towards peace. Russua will gain territory in Ukraine and Ukraine will not be joining NATO. Everyone else wants Russia completely out of Ukraine and for Putin to be taken out. If we go down that road I think the nukes will fly. I don't think the sovereignty of Eastern Ukraine is worth a nuclear war.
This is the "We made Putin do it" excuse that is popular in certain circles. The U.S. orchestrated the revolution that kicked a Russian puppet government to the curb by a unanimous vote of the Ukrainian parliament?? OK, sure.
Have you considered that maybe there is a reason Ukraine has been trying to join NATO for a couple of decades? And NATO and the west have floated a peace plan, and it is for Putin to get the unnatural carnal knowledge out. But yeah, your idea of simply giving up 25% of their country in exchange for temporary peace until Putin can regroup and try for the rest of it, that will surely float, just as the U.S. would be happy to give up 25% of its landmass to invaders as long as they promise peace.
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I appreciate that BB made a reasonably coherent argument. I disagree with it. It ignores that Putin is the one constant. The other annexations. The assassinations of political opponents around the world. The desire to and efforts to destabilize the west.
Putin is a classic strongman dictator. Idi Amin, Castro, etc with a bigger country and more weapons. History, assuming there is still a world left to study history, will judge him as such.
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If we were more "isolationist" this war wouldn't even be happening. We've had four administrations in a row that have taken steps to bring Ukraine into the NATO fold despite loud objections from Russia.
This is the Glenn Greenwald playbook.
1. Deny that Russia is aggressive, and then blame the U.S. when Russia proves otherwise.
2. Allege the U.S. orchestrated the Maiden Revolution, based on largely disproven claims.*
3. Argue that U.S. support for Western-style Democracies (even an imperfect one) is the exact same thing as a totalitarian government seizing control of a Democratic country on our border.
4. Claim you care about the Ukrainian people, while ignoring their desire for self-determination and their willingness to fight for it, and instead selling them out to an oppressive dictatorship under which they will lose substantial freedoms.
* To be clear, the U.S. absolutely cheered on the Maiden Revolution. But being a cheerleader is a whole lot different from being the GM and head coach.
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So we're cool with US taxpayer money being used to carry out ISIS style terror bombings that kill innocent civilians?
Russia fired 81 missiles into civilian areas... and you think ukraine is the bad guy?
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If we were more "isolationist" this war wouldn't even be happening. We've had four administrations in a row that have taken steps to bring Ukraine into the NATO fold despite loud objections from Russia.
Bush backed membership for Ukraine and Georgia in NATO membership which prompted the invasion of Georgia.
During Obama's tenure we orchestrated the Maiden Revolution which ousted a Russian friendly government and installed one friendly to NATO. Subsequently Russia annexed Crimea. Obama then started providing direct aid to Ukraine, but no weapons. Obama seemed to understand the situation the best when he said the following .
[img]https://ibb.co/W2H2SCZ/[img]
Trump really ramped up things when he started providing direct military aid and weapons to Ukraine and began pressuring European countries to stop importing Russian gas. Hilariously, he was called a Russian puppet while he was doing this.
Now we have Biden and we're in a full blown proxy war with a nuclear power. Tens of thousands dead and we're the closest to nuclear war we've been since the Cuban Missile Crisis and I have yet to see really anyone on the NATO side talking about a peaceful resolution. Things just keep escalating back and forth and people are talking about good guys and bad guys like it's a marvel movie.
I have never and still don't understand why Ukraine is so important to the US. I get why it's important to Russia. Try to imagine how the US would react if China announced to the world that they were going to join a military alliance with Mexico, then coordinated a coup to install a Chinese friendly government and started pumping Mexico full of weapons. I don't think that would go over very well.
The truely sick people are those that support the war as a way to weaken Russia while not sacrificing any US lives. Just despicable people who don't give a flying fvck about Ukraine and it's people.
My endgame is a way towards peace. Russua will gain territory in Ukraine and Ukraine will not be joining NATO. Everyone else wants Russia completely out of Ukraine and for Putin to be taken out. If we go down that road I think the nukes will fly. I don't think the sovereignty of Eastern Ukraine is worth a nuclear war.
Your end game is the exact formula used by Hitler to gain massive power in Europe. How Gal darn dense are you?
Your advocating for a sovereign country engaged in a proxy war with Russia for 8 years, give up their land to appease Putin's hurt ego?
Really
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This is the Glenn Greenwald playbook.
1. Deny that Russia is aggressive, and then blame the U.S. when Russia proves otherwise.
2. Allege the U.S. orchestrated the Maiden Revolution, based on largely disproven claims.*
3. Argue that U.S. support for Western-style Democracies (even an imperfect one) is the exact same thing as a totalitarian government seizing control of a Democratic country on our border.
4. Claim you care about the Ukrainian people, while ignoring their desire for self-determination and their willingness to fight for it, and instead selling them out to an oppressive dictatorship under which they will lose substantial freedoms.
* To be clear, the U.S. absolutely cheered on the Maiden Revolution. But being a cheerleader is a whole lot different from being the GM and head coach.
Pakuni has it.
I knew their was Russian bots and shills on reddit and news sites. I didn't know we had one on scoop.
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This is the "We made Putin do it" excuse that is popular in certain circles. The U.S. orchestrated the revolution that kicked a Russian puppet government to the curb by a unanimous vote of the Ukrainian parliament?? OK, sure.
Have you considered that maybe there is a reason Ukraine has been trying to join NATO for a couple of decades? And NATO and the west have floated a peace plan, and it is for Putin to get the unnatural carnal knowledge out. But yeah, your idea of simply giving up 25% of their country in exchange for temporary peace until Putin can regroup and try for the rest of it, that will surely float, just as the U.S. would be happy to give up 25% of its landmass to invaders as long as they promise peace.
Right. And you can’t join the military or economic alliance you want to join because your neighbor doesn’t like it isn’t really a reasonable stance either.
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Right. And you can’t join the military or economic alliance you want to join because your neighbor doesn’t like it isn’t really a reasonable stance either.
Yeah, the China/Mexico analogy misses a few key points. Such as:
* The U.S. insisting Mexico is rightfully part of the U.S.
* The U.S. installing a puppet government in Mexico
* The U.S. annexing the Yucatan peninsula
* The U.S. setting up shadow governments in Sanora and Chihuahua and engaging in ongoing fighting there
* The U.S. outright invading from multiple compass points with the stated goal of capturing Mexico City and taking over the government while kidnapping Mexican citizens and transporting them the U.S. as forced labor.
If those things were true, Mexico would be pretty damn justified in wanting to join a military alliance with China.
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Hat tip to lawdog and ATL. And to the extent it distracted from my broader point, I regret using the word "isolationist." I should have used some more moderate term. I think we can all agree that any type of radically isolationist policy is pretty much unsupportable since WWII.
My initial point was that if you're going to advocate a less involved approach in Ukraine, you're going to need to stay away from moral arguments. Those aren't going to support your conclusion unless you make a mess of it and devolve into meaningless moral relativism.
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"The tankies who claim the Russian invasion is the fault of American imperialism are totally clueless about how many different imperial adventures have played out across the region, and how many different empires have come and gone."
https://snyder.substack.com/p/russias-crimea-disconnect
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If we were more "isolationist" this war wouldn't even be happening. We've had four administrations in a row that have taken steps to bring Ukraine into the NATO fold despite loud objections from Russia.
Bush backed membership for Ukraine and Georgia in NATO membership which prompted the invasion of Georgia.
During Obama's tenure we orchestrated the Maiden Revolution which ousted a Russian friendly government and installed one friendly to NATO. Subsequently Russia annexed Crimea. Obama then started providing direct aid to Ukraine, but no weapons. Obama seemed to understand the situation the best when he said the following .
[img]https://ibb.co/W2H2SCZ/[img]
Trump really ramped up things when he started providing direct military aid and weapons to Ukraine and began pressuring European countries to stop importing Russian gas. Hilariously, he was called a Russian puppet while he was doing this.
Now we have Biden and we're in a full blown proxy war with a nuclear power. Tens of thousands dead and we're the closest to nuclear war we've been since the Cuban Missile Crisis and I have yet to see really anyone on the NATO side talking about a peaceful resolution. Things just keep escalating back and forth and people are talking about good guys and bad guys like it's a marvel movie.
I have never and still don't understand why Ukraine is so important to the US. I get why it's important to Russia. Try to imagine how the US would react if China announced to the world that they were going to join a military alliance with Mexico, then coordinated a coup to install a Chinese friendly government and started pumping Mexico full of weapons. I don't think that would go over very well.
The truely sick people are those that support the war as a way to weaken Russia while not sacrificing any US lives. Just despicable people who don't give a flying fvck about Ukraine and it's people.
My endgame is a way towards peace. Russua will gain territory in Ukraine and Ukraine will not be joining NATO. Everyone else wants Russia completely out of Ukraine and for Putin to be taken out. If we go down that road I think the nukes will fly. I don't think the sovereignty of Eastern Ukraine is worth a nuclear war.
shiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiet, you're so close.
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I don’t disagree with those here who want us to support the Ukrainian war effort.
How far, though, do we go? Is Ukraine worth nuclear war?
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I don’t disagree with those here who want us to support the Ukrainian war effort.
How far, though, do we go? Is Ukraine worth nuclear war?
At that point, would it even be about Ukraine? If Putin starts using nukes, isn’t it about the entire world being endangered by an authoritarian madman who thinks it’s ok to use nuclear weapons because his feelings are hurt?
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I don’t disagree with those here who want us to support the Ukrainian war effort.
How far, though, do we go? Is Ukraine worth nuclear war?
Does the UN have a pre-sorted list of countries worthy to unworthy?
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I don’t disagree with those here who want us to support the Ukrainian war effort.
How far, though, do we go? Is Ukraine worth nuclear war?
If there's a line where supporting Ukraine = nuclear war, I have no idea where it lies.
Any guesses?
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Does the UN have a pre-sorted list of countries worthy to unworthy?
To be honest, there kinda is. If Senegal invaded Gambia, we wouldn’t be this involved. But we should be involved here. Realpolitik and strategic interests and all.
But if a nuclear war is started it will be started by Russia.
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I don’t disagree with those here who want us to support the Ukrainian war effort.
How far, though, do we go? Is Ukraine worth nuclear war?
Lenny. I DO get your point but two comments:
1) The decision/threat to use nukes is Putin's. His and his alone. If he forces us to stand down, it will happen again and again and again. I think all that standing down will do is kick this down the road and, flush with success on his previous attempt, he will confidently do it repeatedly.
2) China, N. Korea, Iran (will have nukes someday) are all watching very carefully.
There is no question as to how very, very dangerous this all is. I absolutely do not take Putin's nuclear saber rattling lightly.
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Lenny. I DO get your point but two comments:
1) The decision/threat to use nukes is Putin's. His and his alone. If he forces us to stand down, it will happen again and again and again. I think all that standing down will do is kick this down the road and, flush with success on his previous attempt, he will confidently do it repeatedly.
2) China, N. Korea, Iran (will have nukes someday) are all watching very carefully.
There is no question as to how very, very dangerous this all is. I absolutely do not take Putin's nuclear saber rattling lightly.
Lets see how the pending revolution shakes out first, imo
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Lets see how the pending revolution shakes out first, imo
Good point! But my guess is that new leadership would allow for more modern social norms but continue on their quest to be a nuclear power.
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King George III and parliament isn’t that bad
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Good point! But my guess is that new leadership would allow for more modern social norms but continue on their quest to be a nuclear power.
It depends. If its a leadership and movement to make them more Western and modern and integrated, away form being an isolated Muslim cleric lead power, which needs nukes to assert that unique position, might change things. Here's to hoping.
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I don’t disagree with those here who want us to support the Ukrainian war effort.
How far, though, do we go? Is Ukraine worth nuclear war?
If he tosses a tactical nuke at Ukraine I'm guessing you'd see a broad coalition against it. No one in the world wants to see nukes used in any form.
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King George III and parliament isn’t that bad
George Clinton and Parliament Funkadelic > King George III and parliament
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Iran is a gorgeous country. Hope that we can visit it and its people safely someday
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It depends. If its a leadership and movement to make them more Western and modern and integrated, away form being an isolated Muslim cleric lead power, which needs nukes to assert that unique position, might change things. Here's to hoping.
Here's to hoping you are right and I am wrong.
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If we were more "isolationist" this war wouldn't even be happening. We've had four administrations in a row that have taken steps to bring Ukraine into the NATO fold despite loud objections from Russia.
Bush backed membership for Ukraine and Georgia in NATO membership which prompted the invasion of Georgia.
During Obama's tenure we orchestrated the Maiden Revolution which ousted a Russian friendly government and installed one friendly to NATO. Subsequently Russia annexed Crimea. Obama then started providing direct aid to Ukraine, but no weapons. Obama seemed to understand the situation the best when he said the following .
[img]https://ibb.co/W2H2SCZ/[img]
Trump really ramped up things when he started providing direct military aid and weapons to Ukraine and began pressuring European countries to stop importing Russian gas. Hilariously, he was called a Russian puppet while he was doing this.
Now we have Biden and we're in a full blown proxy war with a nuclear power. Tens of thousands dead and we're the closest to nuclear war we've been since the Cuban Missile Crisis and I have yet to see really anyone on the NATO side talking about a peaceful resolution. Things just keep escalating back and forth and people are talking about good guys and bad guys like it's a marvel movie.
I have never and still don't understand why Ukraine is so important to the US. I get why it's important to Russia. Try to imagine how the US would react if China announced to the world that they were going to join a military alliance with Mexico, then coordinated a coup to install a Chinese friendly government and started pumping Mexico full of weapons. I don't think that would go over very well.
The truely sick people are those that support the war as a way to weaken Russia while not sacrificing any US lives. Just despicable people who don't give a flying fvck about Ukraine and it's people.
My endgame is a way towards peace. Russua will gain territory in Ukraine and Ukraine will not be joining NATO. Everyone else wants Russia completely out of Ukraine and for Putin to be taken out. If we go down that road I think the nukes will fly. I don't think the sovereignty of Eastern Ukraine is worth a nuclear war.
Are we still in the mindset that Russia is the good guy after today's bombings of apartment buildings?
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Are we still in the mindset that Russia is the good guy after today's bombings of apartment buildings?
Strategy of General Armageddon?
https://www.news.com.au/finance/work/leaders/russia-promotes-brutal-general-armageddon-to-top-job-as-ukraine-war-stalls/news-story/e0966aa824e3da549c1ea85e8f0f34e9
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Are we still in the mindset that Russia is the good guy after today's bombings of apartment buildings?
The Munich Agreement worked so spectacularly in 1938 that the Boozeman's of the world want to see it resurrected. Almost an identical situation as in Sudetenland.
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Are we still in the mindset that Russia is the good guy after today's bombings of apartment buildings?
Russia is the bad guy. But things like this are a part of war.
We "accidentally" bombed hospitals and schools in Yugoslavia, hit apartment buildings and homes in Bulgaria (said not our fault because that border was just close to targets in Yugoslavia), bombed a ton of civilian infrastructure in Iraq, Syria, and Afghanistan. Were we the bad guy?
Ukraine has targeted civilian infrastructure, and murdered a young woman while trying to assassinate a political leader. Are they the bad guy?
In my opinion, no.
Russia is the bad guy, because they invaded a sovereign nation without cause, tortured civilians, and are trying to upset global order.
The rest is the ugliness of war and why as a civilization we need to avoid war at all costs.
What I'm more worried about is this becoming a larger conflict, because powers that be are itching for more confrontation. There is an article on Foxnews today with quotes from a right-wing lobbying firm saying that, because Iran is supplying weapons to Russia that makes them direct combatants on the side of Russia. They are insinuating that they should be targeted.
Such talk, if not suppressed, could get other nations to use it as pretext to attack nations like Iran, that is how global conflicts start. Regional conflicts that are used as pretexts by other nations to achieve political goals through more violence.
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The Russians are forcefully and repeatedly attacking Ukraine's energy grid, focusing primarily on Kyiv. I hate to say it, but this sounds like smart war strategy.
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The Russians are forcefully and repeatedly attacking Ukraine's energy grid, focusing primarily on Kyiv. I hate to say it, but this sounds like smart war strategy.
Of course it is. I'm surprised they didn't start this months ago. Unfortunately, they're trying to create more civilian death. Obviously meant to demoralize the Ukrainian support for the war.
I wonder if Russia understands what the blow back may be. Asymmetrical warfare inside Russian borders might not be out of the question if Ukraine wants to engage in a tit for tat.
I do have serious concerns what that would mean for an escalation in overall war tactics.
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It's a desperate strategy. Instead of toppling Ukraine's government and installing a puppet a la Belarus, they are at best hoping to hold onto what they have now.
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Of course it is. I'm surprised they didn't start this months ago. Unfortunately, they're trying to create more civilian death. Obviously meant to demoralize the Ukrainian support for the war.
I wonder if Russia understands what the blow back may be. Asymmetrical warfare inside Russian borders might not be out of the question if Ukraine wants to engage in a tit for tat.
I do have serious concerns what that would mean for an escalation in overall war tactics.
I'm pretty sure they already started that. Several attacks on Russian soil by "operatives" including the murder of the young woman who was driving her dad's car (attempted assassination).
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I'm pretty sure they already started that. Several attacks on Russian soil by "operatives" including the murder of the young woman who was driving her dad's car (attempted assassination).
"I'm pretty sure they already started that. Several attacks on Russian soil by "operatives" including the murder of the [propogandist and known purveyor of misinformation designed to further the criminal invasion of Ukraine] who was driving her dad's car (attempted assassination)."
FIFY
Also, while it certainly seems reasonable to assume that Ukrainian operatives or interests carried out the hit on Dugina, they haven't gone wide approving of and claiming responsibility or the act. Moscow's official personnel have gone so far as to say that missile strikes from naval platforms hit "all of their targets," which necessarily includes civilian housing.
Not sure why the hairs get split for Ukraine but Moscow gets a big margin of error in your analysis here.
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"I'm pretty sure they already started that. Several attacks on Russian soil by "operatives" including the murder of the [propogandist and known purveyor of misinformation designed to further the criminal invasion of Ukraine] who was driving her dad's car (attempted assassination)."
FIFY
Also, while it certainly seems reasonable to assume that Ukrainian operatives or interests carried out the hit on Dugina, they haven't gone wide approving of and claiming responsibility or the act. Moscow's official personnel have gone so far as to say that missile strikes from naval platforms hit "all of their targets," which necessarily includes civilian housing.
Not sure why the hairs get split for Ukraine but Moscow gets a big margin of error in your analysis here.
I didn't give Moscow any margin of error in my analysis. In fact, I never even mentioned them. My previous post makes clear that they are the bad guy.
The post you quoted just says Ukraine has already started asymmetric warfare. And your "FIFY" doesn't change the fact that the act was a murder, and is considered a war crime (assassination).
Wars cause bad actions. Russia has been atrocious and is the bad guy as I made clear. But Ukraine does not have clean hands, not to mention their propensity for establishing bases and conducting strikes from civilian infrastructure.
https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/news/2022/08/ukraine-ukrainian-fighting-tactics-endanger-civilians/ (https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/news/2022/08/ukraine-ukrainian-fighting-tactics-endanger-civilians/)
Many blame the Palestinians, and defend Israel when the same thing happens there. Those same people turn a blind eye here and blame Russia.
And to be clear, as this is not a defense of anything Russia or Putin. They are without a doubt the bad guys here. They created a conflict by invading a sovereign nation without cause and have conducted many atrocities.
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Then why describe someone who is explicitly engaged in information warfare as a "young woman" and not describe her as exactly what she was? Doing so inherently frames the action in a way designed to disparage the Ukrianians. To the extent that you want to provide context to say "Wars cause bad actions. Russia has been atrocious and is the bad guy as I made clear. But Ukraine does not have clean hands" you're doing so in a way that is devoid of some pretty important context.
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Then why describe someone who is explicitly engaged in information warfare as a "young woman" and not describe her as exactly what she was? Doing so inherently frames the action in a way designed to disparage the Ukrianians. To the extent that you want to provide context to say "Wars cause bad actions. Russia has been atrocious and is the bad guy as I made clear. But Ukraine does not have clean hands" you're doing so in a way that is devoid of some pretty important context.
Because she was a young woman that was murdered in a war crime. That is just fundamentally true. I'm sorry that is "disparaging the Ukrainians," but then they shouldn't have assassinated someone. There is no justifying that car bombing.
Are you ok with anyone being murdered/assassinated if they partake in disinformation campaigns or propaganda during war time?
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Because she was a young woman that was murdered in a war crime. That is just fundamentally true. I'm sorry that is "disparaging the Ukrainians," but then they shouldn't have assassinated someone. There is no justifying that car bombing.
Are you ok with anyone being murdered/assassinated if they partake in disinformation campaigns or propaganda during war time?
This is the correct take. While she did suck eggs, she was a non-combatant. Imagine what would have happened in the US if Iraqi's murdered a US Senator's child like this.
War crimes are war crimes, no matter who commits them.
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I’m not encouraging the murder of non-combatants, I’m just curious why you chose to describe her in the most sympathetic terms possible.
What I’m suggesting is that The choice to do so is not a neutral one.
To paraphrase Lafayette: if one side said 2+2= 4 and the other says 2+2=6, the neutral position is not to dispassionately explain that some people do arithmetic differently. The base state in this conflict is not “both sides are bad.” That lens is exactly what Moscow wants people to default to because it necessarily minimizes Russian war crimes and the war of aggression they instigated which was the precipitating incident for literally everything that happened as being somehow equivalent to what Ukraine has done in response.
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This is the correct take. While she did suck eggs, she was a non-combatant. Imagine what would have happened in the US if Iraqi's murdered a US Senator's child like this.
War crimes are war crimes, no matter who commits them.
Russia does this thousands of times, but when Ukraine does it once?
Both sider-ism reigns.
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Russia does this thousands of times, but when Ukraine does it once?
Both sider-ism reigns.
Nope. Stop being such a neo-lib. Are you trying to say that when one side does a war crime that justifies the other side in doing one?
No one is equating the two. All war crimes are bad isn't a controversial take, and it certainly isn't 'both sider-ism'.
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Are we forgetting that during the start of the war, Russia went in and killed every male over the age of 14 in a village?
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Most, but not all, agree that Russia is the bad guy here.
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Nope. Stop being such a neo-lib. Are you trying to say that when one side does a war crime that justifies the other side in doing one?
No one is equating the two. All war crimes are bad isn't a controversial take, and it certainly isn't 'both sider-ism'.
100% There's a subtle but very very dangerous shift in moving from "When you take the context of Russia's actions into account, we should not change course in Ukraine due to Ukraine's wrongful killing of Darya Dugina," to "Ukraine's killing of Darya Dugina was not wrong becuase of the larger context of Russia's actions."
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I’m not encouraging the murder of non-combatants, I’m just curious why you chose to describe her in the most sympathetic terms possible.
"Young woman" is the most sympathetic term possible?
I actually think forgetful was just referencing her in a manner that everyone involved in the discussion would know who he was talking about.
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Nope. Stop being such a neo-lib. Are you trying to say that when one side does a war crime that justifies the other side in doing one?
No one is equating the two. All war crimes are bad isn't a controversial take, and it certainly isn't 'both sider-ism'.
Exactly. It also completely ignores how the discussion here got to this point.
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Most, but not all, agree that Russia is the bad guy here.
(https://images2.imgbox.com/6c/2b/lYuPOu0f_o.jpg) (https://imgbox.com/lYuPOu0f)
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I know. Just choosing to not name names or point fingers.
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Britney Griner lost her appeal and soon will begin serving her sentence -- 9 years in a penal colony.
She is a political prisoner, a statue for Putin's trophy case. Disgusting.
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https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2022/10/25/2131106/-Ukraine-update-Russia-s-leverage-over-Europe-has-disintegrated-even-faster-than-it-s-army
"Back in August, Bloomberg carried a piece titled “welcome to Europe’s dark, cold winter.” It warned that even if countries were able to find gas to fill their storage facilities, it might not prevent a winter filled with blackouts, business closures, and an economy in freefall. That’s because prices were soaring and “replenishing storage and reducing demand still may not be enough.”
<snip>
But eight months and one day after Russia began its illegal, unprovoked invasion of Ukraine, the idea that Europe is going to "freeze in the dark" without Russian gas seems laughable. Gas storage facilities in Germany are over 97% full, well ahead of last year's status. That gives the nation a significant buffer against any market disruptions.
Across the entire E.U. storage facilities are over 90% full. And even as Europe has been topping off its tanks, the actual price for natural gas has continued to fall. On Monday, prices reached a four month low, with the per megawatt hour cost dropping below $100—less than a third of cost on the day Putin made that “let them freeze” threat.
Even as gas has become cheaper and more available, the demand for gas has also been falling sharply. That’s because the major use of natural gas in Europe is generating electricity, and the Russian invasion has helped rush forward initiatives on both conservation and renewables that are cutting into the demand for gas. In fact, the biggest threat to renewable projects right now in Europe is … the plunging price of gas, which is making some of the counties and companies that had jumped onto making a clean break between electrical generation and gas rethink their positions."
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The law of unintended consequences.
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Apparently Russia has retreated from Kherson and all other territory they held on the east side of the Dnieper. I really have no idea what their end game is right now, but this has been continuously humiliating.
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Russia just sucks period.
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Apparently Russia has retreated from Kherson and all other territory they held on the east side of the Dnieper. I really have no idea what their end game is right now, but this has been continuously humiliating.
Smart move. They couldn't possibly defend it over the winter. There was a rumor online that it was a trap, but who really knows.
Russia will sue for peace this winter... good luck to them with that.
If they keep losing hundreds of conscripts a day (as reports say) they're society might say enough is enough sooner rather than later.
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Putin rose to power with false flag attacks and lies to invade. Seems fitting its the way he will fall from power.
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Russia just sucks period.
Moose and Squirrel agree!
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There are reports that Russian missiles have hit Poland.
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There are reports that Russian missiles have hit Poland.
Where did you see this? That would be huge if true. (not questioning you, just hadn't seen it yet).
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I have read about a missile barrage hitting Ukraine and the Polish PM calling an emergency meeting. Nothing about missiles hitting Poland.
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Looks like a missile or two landed in Poland near the Ukrainian border.
https://www.cnn.com/europe/live-news/russia-ukraine-war-news-11-15-22/h_e7fcb96313566fdeabb625b08f4b4b7f
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I'm am listening to the BBC and I believe now the AP is confirming it.
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Putin is still the bad guy.
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KYIV, Ukraine — A senior U.S. intelligence official says Russian missiles crossed into NATO member Poland, killing two people.
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2022/11/15/russian-missiles-crossed-into-poland-killing-2-us-official-says/10704659002/
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This also further illustrates that 0.0 deals whatsoever should be put on the table. As someone wrote in the WSJ today, Ukraine has to win this because Putin's ambitions will never change. He wants a Soviet empire, period. He has now broken Article 5.and continues to demonstrate his scumbaggery.
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This also further illustrates that 0.0 deals whatsoever should be put on the table. As someone wrote in the WSJ today, Ukraine has to win this because Putin's ambitions will never change. He wants a Soviet empire, period. He has now broken Article 5.and continues to demonstrate his scumbaggery.
Very fine people on both sides.
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Putin is still the bad guy.
Tucker strongly disagrees.
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Tucker strongly disagrees.
Which means he's an imbecile
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Makes one wonder whether it was intentional, Putin trying to goad NATO into aggressive moves in order to shore up his own flagging support at home, or whether it was standard Russian in competence.
It will also be interesting to see what the GOP House does in terms of support for Ukraine. The loud mouth pro-Putin faction has already said they won't support any money for Ukraine, but I think there are enough GOP House Members to still pass additional support bills, presuming McCarthy (again, presumably) allows a vote.
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Makes one wonder whether it was intentional, Putin trying to goad NATO into aggressive moves in order to shore up his own flagging support at home, or whether it was standard Russian in competence.
It will also be interesting to see what the GOP House does in terms of support for Ukraine. The loud mouth pro-Putin faction has already said they won't support any money for Ukraine, but I think there are enough GOP House Members to still pass additional support bills, presuming McCarthy (again, presumably) allows a vote.
My guess is it was an accident but it demonstrates how incompetent his military is which is obviously dangerous. Fortify the Polish border immediately.
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Tucker strongly disagrees.
I assume that to be the case in most things. I am able to manage my disappointment.
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My guess is it was an accident but it demonstrates how incompetent his military is which is obviously dangerous. Fortify the Polish border immediately.
I am seeing reports that possibly Ukrainian missile defenses may have knocked the incoming missiles off course. Not confirmed.
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I am seeing reports that possibly Ukrainian missile defenses may have knocked the incoming missiles off course. Not confirmed.
What does the police scanner in Doc Dribble's basement have to say about the situation?
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Makes one wonder whether it was intentional, Putin trying to goad NATO into aggressive moves in order to shore up his own flagging support at home, or whether it was standard Russian in competence.
I am pretty sure it would be incompetence because anything to get NATO more involved would not go well for Putin at all.
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I am seeing reports that possibly Ukrainian missile defenses may have knocked the incoming missiles off course. Not confirmed.
That would make sense. Beyond the huge ramifications of bringing Poland into it, just look at a map. This was a village of 400 people in the middle of nowhere, an hour plus from any major settlement (and that settlement is smaller than Waukesha). There is zero to be gained from wasting missiles into a place like that, even if someone was into wanton violence and war crimes.
However, its not terribly far (~100 km) from Lviv if missiles were launched from Belarus or the like
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That would make sense. Beyond the huge ramifications of bringing Poland into it, just look at a map. This was a village of 400 people in the middle of nowhere, an hour plus from any major settlement (and that settlement is smaller than Waukesha). There is zero to be gained from wasting missiles into a place like that, even if someone was into wanton violence and war crimes.
However, its not terribly far (~100 km) from Lviv if missiles were launched from Belarus or the like
Russia is already wasting missiles it doesn't have on civilian targets in Ukraine instead of military targets. It's another symptom why they are losing this war badly. There will be a NATO response but probably measured.
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Russia is already wasting missiles it doesn't have on civilian targets in Ukraine instead of military targets. It's another symptom why they are losing this war badly. There will be a NATO response but probably measured.
There is a difference between firing missiles into a civilian target of a country/people you're trying to takeover and/or intimidate...and into a sparsely populated farm village in the middle of nowhere. That doesn't intimidate Poland, it would just be a WTF
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Missiles are missiles, poles were killed.
Accident? Probably.
NATO response is still required.
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Missiles don’t kill people, people kill people.
How’d I do?
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Missiles are missiles, poles were killed.
Accident? Probably.
NATO response is still required.
A NATO response would be moronic, that is how broader wars start. Assuredly an accident, just like we accidentally bombed Bulgaria.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/1999/apr/30/richardnortontaylor.kateconnolly (https://www.theguardian.com/world/1999/apr/30/richardnortontaylor.kateconnolly)
And we bombed a Chinese Embassy.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-48134881 (https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-48134881)
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Missiles are missiles, poles were killed.
Accident? Probably.
NATO response is still required.
What response would you consider appropriate?
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AP reporting that it looks like these were defense missels fired by Ukraine.
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What response would you consider appropriate?
Nothing short of nuclear, but sounds like it wasn’t Putin. We can stop pretending.
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So it was a Ukranian missile that went astray? Okay.......weird.
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So it was a Ukranian missile that went astray? Okay.......weird.
If the Russians were shooting at Lviv, which is about 50 miles from where the missile came down in Poland, it is easy to see how a Ukrainian defense missile can go off course.
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So it was a Ukranian missile that went astray? Okay.......weird.
Not really. Given the amount of air defense the Ukrainians are deploying for these missile attacks, I'm surprised it hasn't occurred earlier in the war. The same goes for Russian missiles. At some point, one is bound to fail and go off course hitting a target outside of Ukraine.
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Nothing short of nuclear.
Exactly. If Putin HAD done something like this, we'd have expressed outrage, put pressure on Russia's allies, try to punish them more financially, give more weapons to Poland and other NATO countries, etc.
But unless Putin goes nuclear, we're not going to even think about responding militarily. Nor should we.
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Exactly. If Putin HAD done something like this, we'd have expressed outrage, put pressure on Russia's allies, try to punish them more financially, give more weapons to Poland and other NATO countries, etc.
But unless Putin goes nuclear, we're not going to even think about responding militarily. Nor should we.
If it was Putin, any NATO weapon would be available to Ukraine.
Any actual aggression towards the Poles should be matched ten-fold, but let's be honest, the guy has his hands full with Ukraine.
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Any actual aggression towards the Poles should be matched ten-fold, but let's be honest, the guy has his hands full with Ukraine.
Not sure one can apply logic to the thinking of a megalomaniacal dictator, but I hear what you're saying.
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Zelenskyy has denied that the missile was Ukrainian. Apparently this needs to be investigated further.
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Zelenskyy has denied that the missile was Ukrainian. Apparently this needs to be investigated further.
Well, it won't be. Consider the matter settled.
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Zelenskyy has denied that the missile was Ukrainian. Apparently this needs to be investigated further.
Perhaps a perfect phone call could settle things.
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Zelenskyy has denied that the missile was Ukrainian. Apparently this needs to be investigated further.
LOL
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Brittney Griner on her way home.
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Great
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Do we at least get a prisoner to be named later in the trade? Vape vs Arms dealer.
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Great for Griner and her loved ones but a terrible deal. Releasing a civilian who made a bad choice and became a political pawn…for one of the worst allies of world wide terrorism and destructive arms dealers of the last century.
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Great for Griner and her loved ones but a terrible deal. Releasing a civilian who made a bad choice and became a political pawn…for one of the worst allies of world wide terrorism and destructive arms dealers of the last century.
Yup. Didn't even get our spy back.
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I'm very happy for Brittney Griner and her family.
Also:
I'm so mad that we released a notorious international criminal arms dealer that is/will be responsible for many past and future loss of innocent lives. The cost may have been too high.
I'm pissed that our government gave up so much. I'm pissed that Russia gets away with this sort of thing. I'm pissed at a certain wing of the GOP is so public for either their support of Russia or at least appease them or repeat their propaganda and let them get away with things like this.
If there is any silver lining, the high profile nature of this may help reinforce to people to take the laws of authoritarian ruled countries seriously and hopefully realize that however flawed the United States is, our freedoms and rights should be cherished.
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Online arm chair international hostage experts is refreshing from the standard arm chair pathogen pandemic expert. Methinks a bit of overlap between these two groups of experts.
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Online arm chair international hostage experts is refreshing from the standard arm chair pathogen pandemic expert. Methinks a bit of overlap between these two groups of experts.
You should know by now we are all experts on everything. When there is trouble in the world, you need only ask us at scoop for the answer.
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Didant miss her, hey?
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Didant miss her, hey?
No one cares.
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Online arm chair international hostage experts is refreshing from the standard arm chair pathogen pandemic expert. Methinks a bit of overlap between these two groups of experts.
I don't know about the others, but I stayed at a Holiday Inn Express last night.
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Is she gonna sing the Star Spangled Banner at the super bowl?
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Is she gonna sing the Star Spangled Banner at the super bowl?
She might if she's asked. Or she might burn the flag when her plane touches down, which is fully within her rights as a citizen.
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Yup. Didn't even get our spy back.
OR MAYBE WE DID, HMMMMM!?!?!?
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I'm very happy for Brittney Griner and her family.
Also:
I'm so mad that we released a notorious international criminal arms dealer that is/will be responsible for many past and future loss of innocent lives. The cost may have been too high.
I'm pissed that our government gave up so much. I'm pissed that Russia gets away with this sort of thing. I'm pissed at a certain wing of the GOP is so public for either their support of Russia or at least appease them or repeat their propaganda and let them get away with things like this.
If there is any silver lining, the high profile nature of this may help reinforce to people to take the laws of authoritarian ruled countries seriously and hopefully realize that however flawed the United States is, our freedoms and rights should be cherished.
Well said.
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Great for Griner and her loved ones but a terrible deal. Releasing a civilian who made a bad choice and became a political pawn…for one of the worst allies of world wide terrorism and destructive arms dealers of the last century.
I thought Russia was sending us a point guard to balance out the deal?
Seriously, the US and our State Department needs to bury this story as fast as possible. For Griner's benefit if nothing else.
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I’m just happy that George Soros was willing to borrow Hunter Biden’s laptop and fly to Benghazi to make this deal over TikTok.
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Glad for Griner, her wife and their loved ones. That must have been beyond awful for both of them.
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Didant miss her, hey?
Most of us were rooting for the state department to exchange you for her.
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Most of us were rooting for the state department to exchange you for her.
Russia wanted something of value
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Russia wanted something of value
Should have traded a few dentists instead, I guess?
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Is she gonna sing the Star Spangled Banner at the super bowl?
While taking a knee.
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Wait a minute watt's her pronouns, hey?
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nunya
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Did they vape on the plane ride home?
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For their sake, I hope so.
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Not sure what BG has to do with Ukraine but I trust the professionals in the State Department to have concluded that this was the best deal they could have made. I think it's also noteworthy that Bout has already served 14 years of his sentence. It is questionable that he will ever be able to return to arms trafficking. It was noteworthy how the President warned all U.S. travelers to make themselves aware of the State Department's travel bulletins before leaving the country.
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I think Bout may not last long in Russia either.
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Not sure what BG has to do with Ukraine but I trust the professionals in the State Department to have concluded that this was the best deal they could have made. I think it's also noteworthy that Bout has already served 14 years of his sentence. It is questionable that he will ever be able to return to arms trafficking. It was noteworthy how the President warned all U.S. travelers to make themselves aware of the State Department's travel bulletins before leaving the country.
As I pointed out to someone, that Bout now has to actually live in Russia which just plain sucks. He was probably better off in a US prison.
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I think Bout may not last long in Russia either.
He'll fall out of a basement window pretty soon.
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As I pointed out to someone, that Bout now has to actually live in Russia which just plain sucks. He was probably better off in a US prison.
Due to our effective prison system, I am sure he is rehabilitated
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Not sure what BG has to do with Ukraine but I trust the professionals in the State Department to have concluded that this was the best deal they could have made. I think it's also noteworthy that Bout has already served 14 years of his sentence. It is questionable that he will ever be able to return to arms trafficking. It was noteworthy how the President warned all U.S. travelers to make themselves aware of the State Department's travel bulletins before leaving the country.
Optics is all that mattered here.
Russia was able to bully the US into releasing a scumbag to get a basketball player back.
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Optics is all that mattered here.
Russia was able to bully the US into releasing a scumbag to get a basketball player back.
Not really, but whatever.
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Not really, but whatever.
Explain how that isn't the case. Russia got what it wanted, and sent a pretty terrible message to the world. Which also makes the US appear weak.
Are BG and her family happy? I'm sure they're ecstatic, and I'm very happy for them. But the message sent to the world today is that you can arrest a US citizen, convict and hold them on a trumped up charge, and then ransom them for a global terrorist.
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Yes. Americans are today less safe due to this decision.
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Not sure what BG has to do with Ukraine but I trust the professionals in the State Department to have concluded that this was the best deal they could have made. I think it's also noteworthy that Bout has already served 14 years of his sentence. It is questionable that he will ever be able to return to arms trafficking. It was noteworthy how the President warned all U.S. travelers to make themselves aware of the State Department's travel bulletins before leaving the country.
Pentagon already is quoted as saying they worry about him returning to arms trafficking
Explain how that isn't the case. Russia got what it wanted, and sent a pretty terrible message to the world. Which also makes the US appear weak.
Are BG and her family happy? I'm sure they're ecstatic, and I'm very happy for them. But the message sent to the world today is that you can arrest a US citizen, convict and hold them on a trumped up charge, and then ransom them for a global terrorist.
YEP. Regardless of Whelan’s family saying they are happy for BG, the fact that Russia was like “nah, not him for a notorious global criminal, just a petty civilian” is terrible messaging and optics.
And it has nothing to do with armchair expertise, the only positive response I’ve seen from this all day is from people pushing a very distinct agenda. Which is as pathetic as people claiming a certain former president would have done so much better,
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Pentagon already is quoted as saying they worry about him returning to arms trafficking
YEP. Regardless of Whelan’s family saying they are happy for BG, the fact that Russia was like “nah, not him for a notorious global criminal, just a petty civilian” is terrible messaging and optics.
And it has nothing to do with armchair expertise, the only positive response I’ve seen from this all day is from people pushing a very distinct agenda. Which is as pathetic as people claiming a certain former president would have done so much better,
What's the deal with this guy? Saw a few social media mentions today
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What pro player or entertainer will get Chapo back to Mexico?
Oprah for Chapo?
Maybe TB for Chapo?
The US State Department made it clear, we will wheel and deal with anybody for the right player.
I'd kind of like Jerry West as our next Secretary of State. That man can make deals.
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What's the deal with this guy? Saw a few social media mentions today
He's totally not a US spy. ;)
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Explain how that isn't the case. Russia got what it wanted, and sent a pretty terrible message to the world. Which also makes the US appear weak.
Are BG and her family happy? I'm sure they're ecstatic, and I'm very happy for them. But the message sent to the world today is that you can arrest a US citizen, convict and hold them on a trumped up charge, and then ransom them for a global terrorist.
Please. Viktor Bout is a bad man, but he's not a global terrorist. There's a reason he received the minimum sentence and would have been paroled in about six years.
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Yes. Americans are today less safe due to this decision.
You're more likely to be harmed by a dentist than Viktor Bout.
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Pentagon already is quoted as saying they worry about him returning to arms trafficking
I believe the Pentagon said, "People like Viktor Bout shouldn't be fueling bloodshed by selling weapons to warring factions overseas. That's our job."
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Optics is all that mattered here.
Russia was able to bully the US into releasing a scumbag to get a basketball player back.
Not just a basketball player - a basketball player who is at least a minor celebrity, African American and a member of the LGBTQ community. That’s also part of the optics that mattered. None of the other Americans being held hostage checked any of those boxes.
Maybe this was the “best deal available”. That doesn’t mean it wasn’t a bad deal.
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Fox News really does put the fear of god in people.
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Not just a basketball player - a basketball player who is at least a minor celebrity, African American and a member of the LGBTQ community. That’s also part of the optics that mattered. None of the other Americans being held hostage checked any of those boxes.
Maybe this was the “best deal available”. That doesn’t mean it wasn’t a bad deal.
Ah yes. Nobody ever looks out for the straight white male with money. Minority LGBT females have it so dang cushy in this country. Surely Tom Brady would’ve been left in a Russian jail cell for 9 years!
Lol. Gtfo
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You're more likely to be harmed by a dentist than Viktor Bout.
looks like pakman wants to take over scoop's most mean-spirited, disagreeable and insulting member position with this one.
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Fox News really does put the fear of god in people.
another fox phobic, but to have any trust at all the "legacy media" which is making pravda blush is truly naive but goes with the territory
and most of us refer to god as God, but have a good one
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Not just a basketball player - a basketball player who is at least a minor celebrity, African American and a member of the LGBTQ community. That’s also part of the optics that mattered. None of the other Americans being held hostage checked any of those boxes.
Google "Trevor Reed."
Come back and tell us what you've learned.
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Ah yes. Nobody ever looks out for the straight white male with money. Minority LGBT females have it so dang cushy in this country. Surely Tom Brady would’ve been left in a Russian jail cell for 9 years!
Lol. Gtfo
How long have the three old guys that are now in Russian prisons been there? Are you that stupid?
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There is more going on behind the scenes. Let's see how it plays out. USA trying to give Putin his exit ramp. Will be an interesting few months...
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Google "Trevor Reed."
Come back and tell us what you've learned.
Here’s what I learned. Reed, like Whelan, was arrested in Russian in 2018. He was exchanged for a cocaine smuggler in April, 2022, two months after Brittany Grindr was detained (February, 2022) but before she had been charged. At the time of his release, the Reed family petitioned the US to secure Whelan’s release also. The US said it was a top priority. Once Grindr was charged, convicted and sentenced, though, she evidently became our #1 priority. Today, 10 month’s after her detention, she was exchanged for a much, much more dangerous criminal than Reed was and Whelan, 4+ years later, remains in a Russian prison.
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Here’s what I learned. Reed, like Whelan, was arrested in Russian in 2018. He was exchanged for a cocaine smuggler in April, 2022, two months after Brittany Grindr was detained (February, 2022) but before she had been charged. At the time of his release, the Reed family petitioned the US to secure Whelan’s release also. The US said it was a top priority. Once Grindr was charged, convicted and sentenced, though, she evidently became our #1 priority. Today, 10 month’s after her detention, she was exchanged for a much, much more dangerous criminal than Reed was and Whelan, 4+ years later, remains in a Russian prison.
This guy is freaking hilarious!
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Not just a basketball player - a basketball player who is at least a minor celebrity, African American and a member of the LGBTQ community. That’s also part of the optics that mattered. None of the other Americans being held hostage checked any of those boxes.
Maybe this was the “best deal available”. That doesn’t mean it wasn’t a bad deal.
I’m impressed. All the Fox talking points in just a couple sentences. “Celebrity”. ‘Black”. “LGBQ”.
You take your marching orders seriously.
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How long have the three old guys that are now in Russian prisons been there? Are you that stupid?
Spies are considered more dangerous than basketball players.
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Do we think Mrs. Lenny knows he uses Grindr so much that his phone autocorrects to that? Awkward. Guy just outed himself on Scoop.
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Due to our effective prison system, I am sure he is rehabilitated
(https://images2.imgbox.com/60/a1/9b1yCHNW_o.jpg) (https://imgbox.com/9b1yCHNW)
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Here’s what I learned. Reed, like Whelan, was arrested in Russian in 2018. He was exchanged for a cocaine smuggler in April, 2022, two months after Brittany Grindr was detained (February, 2022) but before she had been charged. At the time of his release, the Reed family petitioned the US to secure Whelan’s release also. The US said it was a top priority. Once Grindr was charged, convicted and sentenced, though, she evidently became our #1 priority. Today, 10 month’s after her detention, she was exchanged for a much, much more dangerous criminal than Reed was and Whelan, 4+ years later, remains in a Russian prison.
As a non-Black, non-gay, non-athlete, how is it that Reed was released before Griner?
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As a non-Black, non-gay, non-athlete, how is it that Reed was released before Griner?
Reed was exchanged in April 2022. Griner wasn’t tried and convicted until August. So the non-Black, non-gay, non-athlete was released before Griner was eligible for a convicted criminal exchange. Once Griner was convicted she went to the top of the list and was released 4 months later.
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As a non-Black, non-gay, non-athlete, how is it that Reed was released before Griner?
They didn’t have to wait for midterms to be over for Reed.
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Do we think Mrs. Lenny knows he uses Grindr so much that his phone autocorrects to that? Awkward. Guy just outed himself on Scoop.
Do “we” think? You gotta mouse in your pocket, Bias.?
It’s hard to combine unfunny and illogical - congratulations.
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Do “we” think? You gotta mouse in your pocket, Bias.?
It’s hard to combine unfunny and illogical - congratulations.
The mouse in my pocket tells me your autocorrect just shot you up the list of prisoner exchanged if you ever get detained in a foreign country!
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The mouse in my pocket tells me your autocorrect just shot you up the list of prisoner exchanged if you ever get detained in a foreign country!
Unfunny? Check. Nonsensical? Check.
You’re consistent, though. I’ll give you that.
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Here’s what I learned. Reed, like Whelan, was arrested in Russian in 2018. He was exchanged for a cocaine smuggler in April, 2022, two months after Brittany Grindr was detained (February, 2022) but before she had been charged. At the time of his release, the Reed family petitioned the US to secure Whelan’s release also. The US said it was a top priority. Once Grindr was charged, convicted and sentenced, though, she evidently became our #1 priority. Today, 10 month’s after her detention, she was exchanged for a much, much more dangerous criminal than Reed was and Whelan, 4+ years later, remains in a Russian prison.
Sad!
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You're more likely to be harmed by a dentist than Viktor Bout.
I don't know about that.
Mr. Bout will now be free to sell unlimited amounts of weapons to Mexican and Columbian drug cartels, who will then be able to truck theses weapons across our Southern border, unfettered because the Federal government doesn't give a chit about security at the Southern border. And those weapons will inevitably wind up in the hands of drug gangs in Chicago, LA, Houston, Miami and a host of other big cities in the US. And that usually results in the bodies of young black males and young Hispanics being stacked up like cordwood on the streets of our cities.
So, laugh it up, funny boy, about the relative dangers presented by dentists and international arms dealers. The next time 10 minority kids are gunned down in an alley in South Central LA, I will assume the weapons came from an orthodontist.
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But I’ve been told guns don’t kill people, people kill people. So what’s the big deal about a guy who distributes things that do no harm being released from prison?
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But I’ve been told guns don’t kill people, people kill people. So what’s the big deal about a guy who distributes things that do no harm being released from prison?
Apparently, its no big deal. Just stop going to the dentist.
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They didn’t have to wait for midterms to be over for Reed.
Good point. The aggrieved, white homophobe vote might have backed the GOP had this happened six weeks ago.
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https://www.rt.com/news/567929-trump-whelan-griner-bout/
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I don't know about that.
Mr. Bout will now be free to sell unlimited amounts of weapons to Mexican and Columbian drug cartels, who will then be able to truck theses weapons across our Southern border, unfettered because the Federal government doesn't give a chit about security at the Southern border. And those weapons will inevitably wind up in the hands of drug gangs in Chicago, LA, Houston, Miami and a host of other big cities in the US. And that usually results in the bodies of young black males and young Hispanics being stacked up like cordwood on the streets of our cities.
So, laugh it up, funny boy, about the relative dangers presented by dentists and international arms dealers. The next time 10 minority kids are gunned down in an alley in South Central LA, I will assume the weapons came from an orthodontist.
Oh, Dickie.
It's cute that you think that gangs in U.S. cities need to get guns from international arms dealers via Mexican cartels, when all they need to do is send a buyer to the nearest redneck state and acquire them legally.
And it's cute that you think the Mexican cartels need to deal with international arms dealers for weapons, when the world's largest gun shop is just north of the border. (Fun fact: the large majority of guns seized in Mexico trace back to the U.S. You worry about guns coming from Mexico? Ha. It's the other way around. )
What's not cute is you pretending to give a sh*t about minority kids gunned down in some alley in South Central. If bodies are being stacked up like cordwood, it's not because of some Russian arms dealer. It's because of our silly gun culture.
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https://www.rt.com/news/567929-trump-whelan-griner-bout/
LOL.
Thanks for sharing literal Russian propaganda.
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Explain how that isn't the case. Russia got what it wanted, and sent a pretty terrible message to the world. Which also makes the US appear weak.
Are BG and her family happy? I'm sure they're ecstatic, and I'm very happy for them. But the message sent to the world today is that you can arrest a US citizen, convict and hold them on a trumped up charge, and then ransom them for a global terrorist.
Because the US wasn’t “bullied” into anything.
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I will assume the weapons came from an orthodontist.
Close. The weapons came from the totally legal gun store next to the orthodontists office.
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Not just a basketball player - a basketball player who is at least a minor celebrity, African American and a member of the LGBTQ community. That’s also part of the optics that mattered. None of the other Americans being held hostage checked any of those boxes.
Maybe this was the “best deal available”. That doesn’t mean it wasn’t a bad deal.
Oh my lord. Just when I think your brain couldn’t get more mushy.
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Oh my lord. Just when I think your brain couldn’t get more mushy.
and there you have it lenny-the voice of reason just tore you up
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I don't know about that.
Mr. Bout will now be free to sell unlimited amounts of weapons to Mexican and Columbian drug cartels, who will then be able to truck theses weapons across our Southern border, unfettered because the Federal government doesn't give a chit about security at the Southern border. And those weapons will inevitably wind up in the hands of drug gangs in Chicago, LA, Houston, Miami and a host of other big cities in the US. And that usually results in the bodies of young black males and young Hispanics being stacked up like cordwood on the streets of our cities.
So, laugh it up, funny boy, about the relative dangers presented by dentists and international arms dealers. The next time 10 minority kids are gunned down in an alley in South Central LA, I will assume the weapons came from an orthodontist.
I tend to stay out of these "discussions" but when I read this...
(https://media1.tenor.com/images/9cac53aacc654f9987015ae7028614a4/tenor.gif?itemid=12339782)
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Oh, Dickie.
It's cute that you think that gangs in U.S. cities need to get guns from international arms dealers via Mexican cartels, when all they need to do is send a buyer to the nearest redneck state and acquire them legally.
And it's cute that you think the Mexican cartels need to deal with international arms dealers for weapons, when the world's largest gun shop is just north of the border. (Fun fact: the large majority of guns seized in Mexico trace back to the U.S. You worry about guns coming from Mexico? Ha. It's the other way around. )
What's not cute is you pretending to give a sh*t about minority kids gunned down in some alley in South Central. If bodies are being stacked up like cordwood, it's not because of some Russian arms dealer. It's because of our silly gun culture.
Right? Oh no, now guns will get into the USA! What ever will we do! I may need to move to Mequon and hunker down in my basement now that our country may be exposed to firearms!
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Tucker hearts Lenny.
https://www.mediaite.com/tv/tucker-carlson-claims-biden-sought-brittney-griners-release-over-paul-whelan-because-shes-a-black-lesbian/
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Tucker hearts Lenny.
https://www.mediaite.com/tv/tucker-carlson-claims-biden-sought-brittney-griners-release-over-paul-whelan-because-shes-a-black-lesbian/
Lol. Yep. Like clockwork.
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This story need to go away. Literally nobody involved in it, reporting on it, praising it or condemning it looks good.
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Oh my lord. Just when I think your brain couldn’t get more mushy.
Personal insults from the likes of you are much appreciated and taken as complimentary. Please keep ‘‘em coming!
Thank you!
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Tucker hearts Lenny.
https://www.mediaite.com/tv/tucker-carlson-claims-biden-sought-brittney-griners-release-over-paul-whelan-because-shes-a-black-lesbian/
A) I almost never watch Tucker and didn’t tonight.
B) My post was well before his show aired.
But sometimes Tucker Carlson or Chuck Todd or Chris Hayes says something as obvious as the nose on your face. Unlike you and the guy who calls himself Sultan (could anything be more infantile?) I think that people from all different points of view can at times have the facts on their side.
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A) I almost never watch Tucker and didn’t tonight.
B) My post was well before his show aired.
But sometimes Tucker Carlson or Chuck Todd or Chris Hayes says something as obvious as the nose on your face. Unlike you and the guy who calls himself Sultan (could anything be more infantile?) I think that people from all different points of view can at times have the facts on their side.
Think Tucker uses Grindr too?
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On the surface, this is a terrible deal.
I doubt the extent of the deal is being publicly reported.
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On the surface, this is a terrible deal.
I doubt the extent of the deal is being publicly reported.
I'm sure we sent a few pallets of gold or cash their way too.
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Saying Brittany Grindr kinda gives away the whole game doesn’t it?
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A) I almost never watch Tucker and didn’t tonight.
B) My post was well before his show aired.
But sometimes Tucker Carlson or Chuck Todd or Chris Hayes says something as obvious as the nose on your face. Unlike you and the guy who calls himself Sultan (could anything be more infantile?) I think that people from all different points of view can at times have the facts on their side.
😂😂😂 What “facts” do you have on your side?
You are imposing your feelings (not facts) over identity politics onto a highly sensitive and secretive foreign policy issue. Less than 24 hours after the news broke!
And no that’s not obvious at all. That’s you waking from your afternoon nap and just kinda saying whatever enters your mind. The absolute height of “my feelings are the facts” type of thinking.
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Because the US wasn’t “bullied” into anything.
You believe that the trade of Griner for Bout was equal?
I'm not saying they *have* to be equal, but undoubtedly, it wasn't an equal trade.
If you want to quibble over the word 'bully' then that's fine. Stupid, but fine.
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One man's opinion... This was never about Greiner. Greiner was a symbol and a flex by Putin. If things had gone his way, she would still have come home eventually, but as a symbol of his power and benevolence.
Well that didn't work.
So it came down to old fashioned diplomacy and trading. Was it a completely even exchange? Probably not. But symbols matter. So, this will be a discussion for about another week and then we will be on to the next.
The Grindr thing is funny. And it could have been used as a punchline for a while. But not now. Alas.
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You believe that the trade of Griner for Bout was equal?
I'm not saying they *have* to be equal, but undoubtedly, it wasn't an equal trade.
If you want to quibble over the word 'bully' then that's fine. Stupid, but fine.
We should have busted Alexander Ovechkin for speeding and handed him an eight-year prison sentence.
Boom ... equal trade.
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Griner landed safely in Texas.
But just her luck ... DeSantis had her shipped to Martha's Vineyard.
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One man's opinion... This was never about Greiner. Greiner was a symbol and a flex by Putin. If things had gone his way, she would still have come home eventually, but as a symbol of his power and benevolence.
Well that didn't work.
So it came down to old fashioned diplomacy and trading. Was it a completely even exchange? Probably not. But symbols matter. So, this will be a discussion for about another week and then we will be on to the next.
The Grindr thing is funny. And it could have been used as a punchline for a while. But not now. Alas.
IMO, it had nothing to do with the color of her skin, her gender, etc. She was a celebrity plain and simple. Bringing a celebrity home looks good.
Not sure why Marc Fogel couldn't have been thrown in the deal.
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Which is also why she was grabbed in the first place.
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Griner landed safely in Texas.
But just her luck ... DeSantis had her shipped to Martha's Vineyard.
nice try, but i missed the part about desantis taking over texas from abbott...nyet though eyn'a?
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nice try, but i missed the part about desantis taking over texas from abbott...nyet though eyn'a?
Perfect.
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You believe that the trade of Griner for Bout was equal?
I'm not saying they *have* to be equal, but undoubtedly, it wasn't an equal trade.
If you want to quibble over the word 'bully' then that's fine. Stupid, but fine.
Well there is quite a difference between "Russia bullied the US into making this deal" and "Russia and the US made an unequal trade." The US wasn't forced to make a trade. There wasn't some sort of overwhelming political or public support for doing this.
What I will admit to is not knowing all of the facts, so I don't really have much of an opinion either way. Unlike some people here, I don't create narratives to fit my political feelings. What I do know is that the guy she was traded for, while undoubtedly an evil man, was in custody since 2008 and only going to be imprisoned for another decade or so. The judge in the case was so skeptical of his initial conviction that she gave him the absolute minimum sentence allowed in the case.
Is that worth it? I don't know...maybe? Is there something else going on behind the scenes? Could be. I do think the whole hand-wringing over him being an international arms dealer and calling him the "Merchant of Death" is insanely ironic however. I guess we only worry about guns that might kill Americans when they are trafficked by Russians and not the trade shows down the street.
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On the surface, this is a terrible deal.
I doubt the extent of the deal is being publicly reported.
You think it includes a “hostage to be named later”?
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Well said. All three paragraphs, Sultan.
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Well there is quite a difference between "Russia bullied the US into making this deal" and "Russia and the US made an unequal trade." The US wasn't forced to make a trade. There wasn't some sort of overwhelming political or public support for doing this.
What I will admit to is not knowing all of the facts, so I don't really have much of an opinion either way. Unlike some people here, I don't create narratives to fit my political feelings. What I do know is that the guy she was traded for, while undoubtedly an evil man, was in custody since 2008 and only going to be imprisoned for another decade or so. The judge in the case was so skeptical of his initial conviction that she gave him the absolute minimum sentence allowed in the case.
Is that worth it? I don't know...maybe? Is there something else going on behind the scenes? Could be. I do think the whole hand-wringing over him being an international arms dealer and calling him the "Merchant of Death" is insanely ironic however. I guess we only worry about guns that might kill Americans when they are trafficked by Russians and not the trade shows down the street.
Perfectly stated. 'Nuff said.
Back to Ukraine beating Russia down.
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Strange, I thought this was about the war Russia was losing badly. Not about a prisoner exchange?
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Start out from the perspective that Putin is the bad guy in all of this.
Putin knows he is going to invade Ukraine. He has also been cracking down on the rainbow community. A couple of weeks before his invasion, as the USA has been advising their citizens to leave Russia, a 6'8 African American lesbian professional athlete and therefore somewhat famous American is leaving. With vaping oils in her bag. From Putin's perspective, grab her and use her as a chip to try to keep the USA on the sidelines while Russia invades Ukraine.
IMO, this is all this was. A flex by Putin to have an American celebrity in prison and generating enough hand-wringing to keep the USA out of his invasion.
It didn't happen. The USA supported Ukraine anyway. Putin put her through a sham trial. The USA kept supporting Ukraine.
Put her in a Russian prison. The arms kept flowing. Putin is getting his ass kicked.
I do not think it is a coincidence that the Russia media commentators have started fretting over the last couple of weeks about what happens to all of the Putin supporters if Russia completely loses and the prisoner exchange for Griner finally happening.
So, IMHO, this was all a flex by Putin and when the USA didn't cave, he cut a deal.
Just another madman/bully. Just another part of this war where he miscalculated and failed.
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Well, when you are so convinced that the actual bad guy is the elected leader of your own country and not the Russian dictator...
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That’s you waking from your afternoon nap and just kinda saying whatever enters your mind.
Naps are refreshing, especially for the overworked. Sixteen hours a day on Scoop (or more when your “needy meter” is through the roof) posting the same drivel over and over again - “I’m smart, you’re (fill in the blank - old, stupid, etc.)”- can dull one’s brilliance - even a self anointed sultan’s. I’ll wager people have been telling you to “give it a rest” your entire life. Try it. Everyone (even you) will be happier for it.
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My drivel is sanctimonious, dammit. Don't lump me in with the riffraff drivel.
Check your inbox, Lenny.
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Well, when you are so convinced that the actual bad guy is the elected leader of your own country and not the Russian dictator...
The silliness here is trying to grade this as if it were some kind of NBA deadline deal, as if that were how international prisoner swaps among hostile nations work. Maybe if the Russians had thrown in a future draft pick ...
Trevor Reed is a guy who got drunk and, maybe, had a minor scuffle with a couple of Russian cops. For him, we traded an international drug smuggler who delivered literally tons of cocaine around the world on behalf of a Columbian terrorist organization, among others. He worked for the same people Viktor Bout was charged with selling weapons to.
I don't recall much complaining about an unequal trade there. Or, for that matter, much concern about Reed's skin color, sexual identiity or profession.
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I've read that Bout is also very well connected in the oligarch community, which is by far the greatest threat to Putin's power and safety. So it seems to me that this would help Putin build up a little goodwill with those folks. Main point being that we are strictly viewing this as an international grade the trade, when in reality the motivations on both sides were likely mostly domestic.
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https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11518549/amp/Russians-mock-America-swapping-arms-dealer-Victor-Bout-Brittney-Griner.html
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I think worrying about what the Russians think is vital. :o
If the Russians are mocking it, it must be a pretty good idea.
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Naps are refreshing, especially for the overworked. Sixteen hours a day on Scoop (or more when your “needy meter” is through the roof) posting the same drivel over and over again - “I’m smart, you’re (fill in the blank - old, stupid, etc.)”- can dull one’s brilliance - even a self anointed sultan’s. I’ll wager people have been telling you to “give it a rest” your entire life. Try it. Everyone (even you) will be happier for it.
Ah yes. The guy with 11K+ posts making fun of someone else for how much time they spend on MUScoop. Lol.
How much more time do you spend on Grindr than you do on Scoop?
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Tucker hearts Lenny.
https://www.mediaite.com/tv/tucker-carlson-claims-biden-sought-brittney-griners-release-over-paul-whelan-because-shes-a-black-lesbian/
You have your sequence reversed. Lenny's been on a roll with repeating Tuckems greatest hits lately.
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Ah yes. The guy with 11K+ posts making fun of someone else for how much time they spend on MUScoop. Lol.
How much more time do you spend on Grindr than you do on Scoop?
Diminishing sultan's 24/7 presence to "own" Lenny is an interesting take.
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Diminishing sultan's 24/7 presence to "own" Lenny is an interesting take.
Just always find it amusing when someone on a message board posts to make fun of someone for...well, being on a message board. A little ironic, no? Maybe not.
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Ah yes. The guy with 11K+ posts making fun of someone else for how much time they spend on MUScoop. Lol.
How much more time do you spend on Grindr than you do on Scoop?
he's retired sparky big difference his time or company time
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he's retired sparky big difference his time or company time
Oh. Okay then! So the guy with 11K posts making fun of the guy with 8K posts is okay, then!
Did Sultan's HR department get any emails from the Meat Eaters of Scoop? Where is the Crash man anyway? He's been MIA since he got outed as someone who runs to the HR department anytime someone says something he doesn't like! Talk about cowards...
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In before the lock
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Oh. Okay then! So the guy with 11K posts making fun of the guy with 8K posts is okay, then!
Did Sultan's HR department get any emails from the Meat Eaters of Scoop? Where is the Crash man anyway? He's been MIA since he got outed as someone who runs to the HR department anytime someone says something he doesn't like! Talk about cowards...
answers to your stupid cover your a** comments/questions-
just surrender, lenny owned him with logic not disinformation
NO
don't know
if you say so
why
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nice try, but i missed the part about desantis taking over texas from abbott...nyet though eyn'a?
You should try to find more details on the Desantis/Martha's vineyard stuff
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answers to your stupid cover your a** comments/questions-
just surrender, lenny owned him with logic not disinformation
NO
don't know
if you say so
why
Hmm. So the meateaters claim that they don't believe Crash would do such a thing as email HR departments trying to dox Scoop posters, yet the meateaters know which posters' HR departments were contacted? Interesting...
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Hmm. So the meateaters claim that they don't believe Crash would do such a thing as email HR departments trying to dox Scoop posters, yet the meateaters know which posters' HR departments were contacted? Interesting...
Are you sultan's 1 friend in the world? That's so cute.
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My only issue with the jokes about Bout vs American gun culture is the NRA infatuated gun lover isn't stockpiling and delivering anti aircraft missiles that get launched at Israeli airliners or other rocket launchers to murder minded separatist groups. Ironically, the same weapons that can easily be used to attack any "the US citizen needs high caliber weapons to defend themselves against the government" argument for AR-15s and the like.
I was actually EXTREMELY disappointed by the prisoner exchange video, it cut off before we could see what brand/color tracksuit the Kremlin sent for Bout to change into.
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Are you sultan's 1 friend in the world? That's so cute.
To be fair he has a point. A large contingent decided to go "here no evil see no evil speak no evil" when that happened and that same contingent to this day will say things like "are you sultan's 1 friend in the world" rather than acknowledging just how much of an ass hole move that was.
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My only issue with the jokes about Bout vs American gun culture is the NRA infatuated gun lover isn't stockpiling and delivering anti aircraft missiles that get launched at Israeli airliners or other rocket launchers to murder minded separatist groups. Ironically, the same weapons that can easily be used to attack any "the US citizen needs high caliber weapons to defend themselves against the government" argument for AR-15s and the like.
I was actually EXTREMELY disappointed by the prisoner exchange video, it cut off before we could see what brand/color tracksuit the Kremlin sent for Bout to change into.
So we can compare him to ATF running guns to Mexican cartels that include anti aircraft and heavy artillery?
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To be fair he has a point. A large contingent decided to go "here no evil see no evil speak no evil" when that happened and that same contingent to this day will say things like "are you sultan's 1 friend in the world" rather than acknowledging just how much of an ass hole move that was.
Huh?
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Huh?
How hard is it to just acknowledge Keege did an ass hole thing instead of deflecting whenever it comes up?
I'm not specifically talking about you but whenever I've seen it brought up people seem to have an issue saying "that that was messed up" and instead deflect and attack the poster who brought it up like you just did.
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How hard is it to just acknowledge Keege did an ass hole thing instead of deflecting whenever it comes up?
I'm not specifically talking about you but whenever I've seen it brought up people seem to have an issue saying "that that was messed up" and instead deflect and attack the poster who brought it up like you just did.
What does this have to do with bias and sultan's budding romance? Is wades sultan's kid or something?
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What does this have to do with bias and sultan's budding romance? Is wades sultan's kid or something?
Bias responded referencing Oh. Okay then! So the guy with 11K posts making fun of the guy with 8K posts is okay, then!
Did Sultan's HR department get any emails from the Meat Eaters of Scoop? Where is the Crash man anyway? He's been MIA since he got outed as someone who runs to the HR department anytime someone says something he doesn't like! Talk about cowards...
Rocket responded.
Hmm. So the meateaters claim that they don't believe Crash would do such a thing as email HR departments trying to dox Scoop posters, yet the meateaters know which posters' HR departments were contacted? Interesting...
You responded
Are you sultan's 1 friend in the world? That's so cute.
I don't get why Bias brought it up in the first place. But both you and rocket chose to deflect an objectively ass hole move rather than simple acknowledgment and attack from some other angle. It boggles my mind that so many on here are so dug in on siding for certain posters that you'd rather ignore and deflect than acknowledge and pivot.
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Bias responded referencing
Rocket responded.
You responded
I don't get why Bias brought it up in the first place. But both you and rocket chose to deflect an objectively ass hole move rather than simple acknowledgment and attack from some other angle. It boggles my mind that so many on here are so dug in on siding for certain posters that you'd rather ignore and deflect than acknowledge and pivot.
Brought it up because apparently the MeatEaters are keeping tabs on who's still gainfully employed, who's retired, and how much time each person is spending on Scoop and using those things as reasons why one person can make fun of another person spending time on Scoop. That's what Crash boi emailed HR departments about, spending too much time on MUScoop during work hours. So I was wondering if anybody had notified Sultan's HR department, given they apparently have an issue with Sultan's time spent on Scoop.
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My only issue with the jokes about Bout vs American gun culture is the NRA infatuated gun lover isn't stockpiling and delivering anti aircraft missiles that get launched at Israeli airliners or other rocket launchers to murder minded separatist groups. Ironically, the same weapons that can easily be used to attack any "the US citizen needs high caliber weapons to defend themselves against the government" argument for AR-15s and the like.
I was actually EXTREMELY disappointed by the prisoner exchange video, it cut off before we could see what brand/color tracksuit the Kremlin sent for Bout to change into.
The jokes weren't about Bout vs American gun culture. The jokes were about dopey people who think American street gangs and Mexican cartels get their weapons from people like Victor Bout.
They get their weapons from America. So much so that the Mexican government sued U.S. gun makers for arming the cartels.
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In before the lock
I am beginning to think a wellness check to the mods' houses mansions is in order.
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I am beginning to think a wellness check to the mods' houses mansions is in order.
They’re out celebrating grindrs freedom
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Well there is quite a difference between "Russia bullied the US into making this deal" and "Russia and the US made an unequal trade." The US wasn't forced to make a trade. There wasn't some sort of overwhelming political or public support for doing this.
What I will admit to is not knowing all of the facts, so I don't really have much of an opinion either way. Unlike some people here, I don't create narratives to fit my political feelings. What I do know is that the guy she was traded for, while undoubtedly an evil man, was in custody since 2008 and only going to be imprisoned for another decade or so. The judge in the case was so skeptical of his initial conviction that she gave him the absolute minimum sentence allowed in the case.
Is that worth it? I don't know...maybe? Is there something else going on behind the scenes? Could be. I do think the whole hand-wringing over him being an international arms dealer and calling him the "Merchant of Death" is insanely ironic however. I guess we only worry about guns that might kill Americans when they are trafficked by Russians and not the trade shows down the street.
You're picking nits, man. The Griner story was headline news for months, and the admin thought that getting her home would play well. That's why they bargained for her. Period.
The rest of your post is just unnecessary whataboutism. Court in the US is about what you can PROVE. Bout was a known arms trafficker and was exceptionally good at covering his tracks. The man sold weapons to warlords in Africa that armed children. He facilitated sales of SAMs that tried to shoot down an airliner. He sold weapons to al-Qaeda. He was a total scumbag. Griner was let go by Russia and in return they got a king's ransom and made the US look incredibly stupid in the process.
Bringing up gun sales in the US is irrelevant. Regardless, you are probably familiar with my stance on firearms.
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CNN reporting whelan would only be swapped if we traded a Russian spy in prison for murder
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You're picking nits, man. The Griner story was headline news for months, and the admin thought that getting her home would play well. That's why they bargained for her. Period.
So...not bullied. Thanks.
The rest of your post is just unnecessary whataboutism. Court in the US is about what you can PROVE. Bout was a known arms trafficker and was exceptionally good at covering his tracks. The man sold weapons to warlords in Africa that armed children. He facilitated sales of SAMs that tried to shoot down an airliner. He sold weapons to al-Qaeda. He was a total scumbag. Griner was let go by Russia and in return they got a king's ransom and made the US look incredibly stupid in the process.
This isn't whataboutism.
Bringing up gun sales in the US is irrelevant. Regardless, you are probably familiar with my stance on firearms.
I am not, nor do I particularly care.
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They’re out celebrating grindrs freedom
Is this how she's being referred to by certain segments? Is it supposed to be funny? Insulting?
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So...not bullied. Thanks.
This isn't whataboutism.
I am not, nor do I particularly care.
Yes, bullied. The US wanted her back, and Russia bullied the US into giving up a lot to get her.
You tried to bring up guns in the US to deflect from my argument. So yes, that is called whataboutism.
You did, and you seem to remember everything else that everyone has ever said on the board except this. Sooooo I don't believe you.
Stop being a silly billy.
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Rather have the marine back. Who the hell is Grinder anyways and what the hell has it contributed to society, hey?
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Rather have the marine back. Who the hell is Grinder anyways and what the hell has it contributed to society, hey?
You mean the marine that was court martial-ed and BCDed?
Also, don't you only like war heroes that don't get captured?
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Rather have the marine back. Who the hell is Grinder anyways and what the hell has it contributed to society, hey?
State Department needs to get off their collective asses about Marc Fogel.
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You mean the marine that was court martial-ed and BCDed?
Also, don't you only like war heroes that don't get captured?
Your hero sold out the country for traitor Beau Bergdahl.
Maybe we as a country shouldn't leave any US citizen behind. Too late for the current administration though.
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I see this board has more than one Grindr user. At least you're not alone, Lenny! I wonder if any Scoopers have met in real life through the app without knowing it. Not surprised to see who those posters are.
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I see this board has more than one Grindr user. At least you're not alone, Lenny! I wonder if any Scoopers have met in real life through the app without knowing it. Not surprised to see who those posters are.
You are giving nads and TAMU a run for their money as least funny poster.
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. Who the hell is Grinder anyways and what the hell has it contributed to society, hey?
That is why we thought sending you to Russia would have been a fair trade.
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You are giving nads and TAMU a run for their money as least funny poster.
Because calling Brittney Griner "Grindr" is HYSTERICAL!
Nobody is surprised who is doing it, either.
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Your hero sold out the country for traitor Beau Bergdahl.
Maybe we as a country shouldn't leave any US citizen behind. Too late for the current administration though.
Obama is my hero? That's news to me.
Too late for every administration.
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Yes, bullied. The US wanted her back, and Russia bullied the US into giving up a lot to get her.
Again, that's not what "bullied" means. You just can't make up words to fit a narrative.
You tried to bring up guns in the US to deflect from my argument. So yes, that is called whataboutism.
Then you quoted the wrong paragraph.
You did, and you seem to remember everything else that everyone has ever said on the board except this. Sooooo I don't believe you.
Oh no. Whatever will I do.
You don't like the deal. That's fine. As I said, I have no idea about it yet. But just be honest...you used a word that doesn't make sense and you are sticking too it instead of admitting error.
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Again, that's not what "bullied" means. You just can't make up words to fit a narrative.
Then you quoted the wrong paragraph.
Oh no. Whatever will I do.
You don't like the deal. That's fine. As I said, I have no idea about it yet. But just be honest...you used a word that doesn't make sense and you are sticking too it instead of admitting error.
Wrong 3x, Sultan of Semantics.
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Ah yes. The guy with 11K+ posts making fun of someone else for how much time they spend on MUScoop. Lol.
How much more time do you spend on Grindr than you do on Scoop?
What are you, new? All of my posts are under Lennys Tap. Sultan changes his nom de guerre as often as you change your underwear. He has tens of thousands more posts than me or anyone else.
I know nothing about Grindr. You seem to be quite versed. I’ll leave it at that.
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What are you, new? All of my posts are under Lennys Tap. Sultan changes his nom de guerre as often as you change your underwear. He has tens of thousands more posts than me or anyone else.
I know nothing about Grindr. You seem to be quite versed. I’ll leave it at that.
Changing your username doesn't change your post count.
Creating a new account would start from zero
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What are you, new? All of my posts are under Lennys Tap. Sultan changes his nom de guerre as often as you change your underwear. He has tens of thousands more posts than me or anyone else.
I know nothing about Grindr. You seem to be quite versed. I’ll leave it at that.
Lol, sad. Doesn't know how it works. Here, check it out. I'm currently at 527 posts (with this one). Check out what happens when I change my name?
Also, hilarious that you say you don't just regurgitate conservative talking points, yet you admit to knowing nothing about Grindr but still made the Brittney Grindr jokes. Weird. Either way, whether your phone is autocorrecting Griner to Grindr or you're making a Grindr joke, the joke's on you. You look like an absolute clown.
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Hey Lenny, it's me, withoutbias! Guess what, my post count remains even though I changed my username! So, looks like you thinking Sultan spends too much time on Scoop because he has SOOOO many posts because he's changed usernames a dozen times doesn't add up (pun)! Maybe you'll have to look in the mirror now, given you have 3K more posts than the guy you think never leaves Scoop!
Again, egg ends up on Lenny's face.
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Changing your username doesn't change your post count.
Creating a new account would start from zero
Maybe it’s always been that way and Sultan created new accounts rather than just changing names. In which case I misspoke. But one way or another, the point remains - the guy who currently posts as the Sultan of Semantics has thousands more posts than anyone here.
Ergo another point also remains - the Moron Formerly Known as Without Bias is still wrong. Which is never surprising.
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Maybe it’s always been that way and Sultan created new accounts rather than just changing names. In which case I misspoke. But one way or another, the point remains - the guy who currently posts as the Sultan of Semantics has thousands more posts than anyone here.
Ergo another point also remains - the Moron Formrrly Known as Without Bias is still wrong.
Lol! Mr. “I know nothing about Grindr I’m just calling Brittney Griner Brittney Grindr…well I don’t even know why, but certainly not because I am only capable of regurgitating all the conservative talking points of the week!” is doubling down now huh? I’m shocked!
Maybe try a simple check to see if this can be proven wrong before you make yourself look even dumber with every post. Go look at the guy’s posting history. The first post on the account’s history was in 2015. You know, when Scoop started. Aka it’s been the same account, with different names.
Any other sad attempts to save face that you’d like to throw out there? Mr. “Sultan has no life outside of Scoop, just please ignore that I have 3K more posts than him!” continues to look dumb. To nobody’s surprise. Might be time to go the way of your buddy Keefer and hang ‘em up here. You’ve embarrassed yourself enough and you must realize that you spend too much time on here by now, given that you make fun of people with 3K less posts than you for the time they spend on here.
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Hey Lenny, it's me, withoutbias! Guess what, my post count remains even though I changed my username! So, looks like you thinking Sultan spends too much time on Scoop because he has SOOOO many posts because he's changed usernames a dozen times doesn't add up (pun)! Maybe you'll have to look in the mirror now, given you have 3K more posts than the guy you think never leaves Scoop!
Again, egg ends up on Lenny's face.
Hey Bias, guess what? You’re still dead wrong about how many posts the guy who now calls himself Sultan has. Whether the rules changed or he frequently opened new accounts is immaterial. He’s posted here thousands of times more than anyone in Scoop’s history.
Anyone who’s been on Scoop since the early days knows this. Ask sultan himself - I’ve no doubt he’ll answer honestly re what his real post count is.
Where’s the egg, again?
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Hey Bias, guess what? You’re still dead wrong about how many posts the guy who now calls himself Sultan has. Whether the rules changed or he frequently opened new accounts is immaterial. He’s posted here thousands of times more than anyone in Scoop’s history.
Anyone who’s been on Scoop since the early days knows this. Ask sultan himself - I’ve no doubt he’ll answer honestly re what his real post count is.
Where’s the egg, again?
Mr. Grindr I don’t need to ask anyone. There’s something called a post history you can view. It’s quite simple, honestly. The egg has never left your face lol.
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Maybe try a simple check to see if this can be proven wrong before you make yourself look even dumber with every post. Go look at the guy’s posting history. The first post on the account’s history was in 2015. You know, when Scoop started. Aka it’s been the same account, with different names.
Scoop didn’t start in 2015. 2015 is when Sultan opened the account he current has.
Scoop started in 2006, and if Sultan wasn’t a charter member he was pretty close. So 9 years worth of his posts don’t show up in his current total. I joined in 2009 and have never opened a new account - so my total posts are exactly as stated.
But I’m dumb and you’re not. LOL
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Scoop didn’t start in 2015. 2015 is when Sultan opened the account he current has.
Scoop started in 2006, and if Sultan wasn’t a charter member he was pretty close. So 9 years worth of his posts don’t show up in his current total. I joined in 2009 and have never opened a new account - so my total posts are exactly as stated.
But I’m dumb and you’re not. LOL
Agreed! Go on Mr. Grindr.
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Guys seriously just stop. It’s not about me or any other poster.
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You think it includes a “hostage to be named later”?
More like a hostage (or other terms) to be named publicly never
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Lol! Mr. “I know nothing about Grindr I’m just calling Brittney Griner Brittney Grindr…well I don’t even know why, but certainly not because I am only capable of regurgitating all the conservative talking points of the week!” is doubling down now huh? I’m shocked!
Maybe try a simple check to see if this can be proven wrong before you make yourself look even dumber with every post. Go look at the guy’s posting history. The first post on the account’s history was in 2015. You know, when Scoop started. Aka it’s been the same account, with different names.
Any other sad attempts to save face that you’d like to throw out there? Mr. “Sultan has no life outside of Scoop, just please ignore that I have 3K more posts than him!” continues to look dumb. To nobody’s surprise. Might be time to go the way of your buddy Keefer and hang ‘em up here. You’ve embarrassed yourself enough and you must realize that you spend too much time on here by now, given that you make fun of people with 3K less posts than you for the time they spend on here.
This alone should make you delete your account.
🤡🤡🤡
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Ok, gonna shut this one down...at least for a while. With some commentary...
1) Bias, you don't need to be a policeman here. We have people for that (me, and mods). Keep taking things into your own hands and you won't be here much longer.
2) sultan is prolific, and not always pleasant. But has had to a) drop off for a while and b) change his username because he's been harassed. He never reported or made a big deal of it, but it still pisses me off.
3) Lenny, I respect you. But your perspective has appeared to have been especially skewed by news media recently.
4) zig, still waiting for you to have any intelligent response.