The War in Ukraine

[TSmith34, Inc.]

And this:
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2022/9/9/2121915/-Ukraine-Update-Ukraine-learned-combined-arms-maneuvers-but-at-great-sacrifice

You don't usually see good war snark, but the section about the hill the Wagner Group captured is worth the read.

[MU82]

Now that Ukraine is scoring some pretty major victories, I worry that Putin will do something really insane and evil -- above and beyond his usual level of insanity and evilness.

How bad would it have to get for Russia for Putin to pull out nukes? Hopefully they're off the table, but he is Putin.

[Jockey]

Now that Ukraine is scoring some pretty major victories, I worry that Putin will do something really insane and evil -- above and beyond his usual level of insanity and evilness.

How bad would it have to get for Russia for Putin to pull out nukes? Hopefully they're off the table, but he is Putin.

That's been my worry since the start.

[tower912]

That has been the world's worry from the start.   

[NCMUFan]

Maybe could, but he is a rich dictator.  Why threaten his good life.

[MU82]

Maybe could, but he is a rich dictator.  Why threaten his good life.

You are using reason even as you talk about an unreasonable man.

[NCMUFan]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sE2qa96pq8I

[Hards Alumni]

I don't see how Putin politically survives until the end of the year.  If he isn't extremely careful, he will have open rebellion from Chechnya soon.  And then you might see some of the other former Soviet states begin to feast on the corpse of Russia.

[The Sultan]

Seems like a lot of the former Soviet republics in Asia see more of a future relating to China versus Russia.

[RJax55]

Seems like a lot of the former Soviet republics in Asia see more of a future relating to China versus Russia.

I think that was going to happen no matter. However, the Ukraine War seems to have accelerated the process.

[Uncle Rico]

I don't see how Putin politically survives until the end of the year.  If he isn't extremely careful, he will have open rebellion from Chechnya soon.  And then you might see some of the other former Soviet states begin to feast on the corpse of Russia.

I went down this rabbit hole recently.  It's sort of confusing what signals Chechnya is sending and how strong they are.  There's a fair amount of internal stress there, so can they fight on two fronts?  I know Kadyrov rules with an iron-fist but there was more opposition to him than I imagined. 

[Hards Alumni]

I went down this rabbit hole recently.  It's sort of confusing what signals Chechnya is sending and how strong they are.  There's a fair amount of internal stress there, so can they fight on two fronts?  I know Kadyrov rules with an iron-fist but there was more opposition to him than I imagined.

And there is newly released audio of Kadyrov criticizing Putin and lamenting the difficulties in Ukraine.  Also saying there is a serious disconnect between leadership and what is actually happening on the ground.

A very brazen statement from one of Putin's own.

This tells me that Kadyrov sees the war as lost and is shoring up his leadership to break away if things continue.  If Chechnya breaks away, I wouldn't be shocked to see Georgia make a grab on South Ossetia and Abkhazia.  The Georgian government is essentially pro Putin, but if dominoes start to fall their self interest will outstrip their loyalty to Putin.

[RJax55]

And there is newly released audio of Kadyrov criticizing Putin and lamenting the difficulties in Ukraine.  Also saying there is a serious disconnect between leadership and what is actually happening on the ground.

A very brazen statement from one of Putin's own.

This tells me that Kadyrov sees the war as lost and is shoring up his leadership to break away if things continue.  If Chechnya breaks away, I wouldn't be shocked to see Georgia make a grab on South Ossetia and Abkhazia.  The Georgian government is essentially pro Putin, but if dominoes start to fall their self interest will outstrip their loyalty to Putin.

He changed his tune a few days later. I'm sure the FSB said something to him.

I can't see Kadyrov leading a Chechen break-away. He fancies himself way too much of a Russian ultra-national to do so. And, if he flips on Moscow, he will be out on an island. I'm very doubtful Chechen nationals would welcome him back to their side after Kadyrov and his father turned on them.

What his comments do illustrate IMO is the rising tension on Putin from the Russian nationalist community. They have been in a frenzy over the past month about the course of the war. They want a significant escalation in the conflict. Mass mobilization of the Russian people, martial law, a full-scale offensive on Ukraine, etc.

Many think that if a coup comes for Putin it will be from a party that seeks to end the conflict. I have my doubts. The longer this goes on and the worse it gets for the Russian forces, the higher the chances of a coup coming from the other side.

[MU82]

Based on the stuff I've been reading about how the war has progressed, it looks like Douglas-Tyson, the Miracle on Ice and Nova-Georgetown might each be dropping a rung in the "greatest upsets of all time" category.

[Uncle Rico]

Based on the stuff I've been reading about how the war has progressed, it looks like Douglas-Tyson, the Miracle on Ice and Nova-Georgetown might each be dropping a rung in the "greatest upsets of all time" category.

I don't know if this is true.  The strength of the Russian Army has always lied with numbers.  Historically, at least the last few centuries, the myth hasn't matched reality.  It's often been disorganized and undisciplined.  We really underestimate the importance of understanding needing a reason to fight.  The Ukrainian's have it.  Not sure the foot soldier of Russia has the heart for it.

[Jockey]

Some of the strongman luster is fading from Putin. He was notorious in the past for making world leaders sit and wait when they had a meeting with him. He did the same to Queen Elizabeth and the Pope.


This week at the SCO summit in Uzbekistan, the other world leaders there made him sit alone at the table and wait for them. He has truly been weakened (both at home and especially on the world stage) and I think there is at least a 50/50 chance he will fall. If it happens, it will happen quick. It won't be a long ordeal as he tries to hold on to power.

[MU82]

I don't know if this is true.  The strength of the Russian Army has always lied with numbers.  Historically, at least the last few centuries, the myth hasn't matched reality.  It's often been disorganized and undisciplined.  We really underestimate the importance of understanding needing a reason to fight.  The Ukrainian's have it.  Not sure the foot soldier of Russia has the heart for it.

Russia also theoretically has the firepower -- nukes, of course, but also weaponry. But we've come to learn that a lot of their weapons were older, out of operation, etc. Plus, they didn't count on the world community being so willing to help Ukraine in that department. Putin thought he was gonna win this war in a week and that the U.S. and others wouldn't be willing to invest in what was surely gonna be a lost cause.

I sure don't know if Ukraine really has the upper hand here or not, but I'll admit this has surprised the hell out of me.

[forgetful]

Based on the stuff I've been reading about how the war has progressed, it looks like Douglas-Tyson, the Miracle on Ice and Nova-Georgetown might each be dropping a rung in the "greatest upsets of all time" category.

Not sure this is that accurate.

Remember, one can argue we lost in Afghanistan, and Iraq. Not to mention the Bay of Pigs.

None of those had the allied support of the entire world against the aggressor.

Invading a country period is a monumental task. Achieving a sustained victory in modern times is not common.

[MU82]

Not sure this is that accurate.

Remember, one can argue we lost in Afghanistan, and Iraq. Not to mention the Bay of Pigs.

None of those had the allied support of the entire world against the aggressor.

Invading a country period is a monumental task. Achieving a sustained victory in modern times is not common.

One can argue lots of things. Thankfully, no one can argue that we lost WW2!

[tower912]

Because of the chip shortage and supply chain issue, Russia cannot build new tanks, new smart weapons as they use up their pre war stock.

I think learning this lesson is an unspoken reason behind the microchip manufacturing bill.   We need domestic chip production to supply modern weaponry.

[Jockey]

Because of the chip shortage and supply chain issue, Russia cannot build new tanks, new smart weapons as they use up their pre war stock.

I think learning this lesson is an unspoken reason behind the microchip manufacturing bill.   We need domestic chip production to supply modern weaponry.

I doubt if most Americans even realize when things like this are done for the military.

Another was the Interstate Highway System under Eisenhower.

[tower912]

It clearly has domestic benefits as well.   Look at auto manufacturing right now.   

So, I think the purpose was two-fold, but the military facet was not discussed

[Hards Alumni]

I doubt if most Americans even realize when things like this are done for the military.

Another was the Interstate Highway System under Eisenhower.

At least it wasn't over him!

[MU82]

It clearly has domestic benefits as well.   Look at auto manufacturing right now.   

So, I think the purpose was two-fold, but the military facet was not discussed

It is absolutely a national security issue.

[fjm]

Shiz is about to get wild. Russians know something.

Google searches for "how to leave Russia", and "mobilization" are through the roof in Russia right now.

Putin was supposed to make a special announcement tonight but has changed that to tomorrow.