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Author Topic: The War in Ukraine  (Read 23059 times)

TSmith34

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The War in Ukraine
« on: March 28, 2022, 05:45:22 PM »
Opinion: Stop overestimating the Russian military and underestimating the Ukrainians
https://archive.ph/i1yIc

"One vignette from the fighting near Kyiv illustrates the Ukrainian advantage. “The Ukrainians have put up a drone video armed with thermal imaging,” writes a British war correspondent in New Line Magazine. “It’s so chilly out there that the Russian tank crews sit with their engines running through the night. As the Ukrainian drone hovers over the woods in the blackness, it picks out the Russian tanks hiding in the cold. Each Russian exhaust spills its presence, white on black. Then Ukrainian artillery, pinpointed by the drone, moves in for the kill and takes out each white dot, one by one.”

The Russians, with their overly centralized command system and lack of experienced noncommissioned officers, have been slow to respond to Ukrainian tactics. “The Russians have no imagination,” an American who said he was fighting with the Ukrainians told the Atlantic. “They would shell our positions, attack in large formations, and when their assaults failed, do it all over again.”

Having worn down the invaders, the Ukrainians have now gone on the offensive. Counterattacks around Kyiv have just liberated the suburb of Irpin and driven the Russians back at least 20 miles. The invaders are not in artillery range of the city center and Ukrainian air defenses preclude heavy bombing, enabling the return of some ordinary life in the capital. Ukrainian forces have retaken Trostianets and reopened the road to Sumy, a regional capital in the east. The Ukrainians are also advancing to relieve the pressure on the country’s second city, Kharkiv. While the Russians may have taken the ruins of Mariupol in the south, the Pentagon reports that they are no longer in full control of Kherson, the only regional capital captured in their initial offensive.
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#UnleashSean

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Re: The War in Ukraine
« Reply #1 on: March 28, 2022, 08:51:23 PM »
who is overestimating the Russian army at this point?

TSmith34

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Re: The War in Ukraine
« Reply #2 on: March 29, 2022, 08:11:17 AM »
who is overestimating the Russian army at this point?
That is a fair point. No one is, perhaps, with regard to operational competence. However, the sheer size differential between the armies of Ukraine and Russia indicates that Russia could still potentially win a war of attrition while slaughtering hundreds of thousands of civilians. They seem intent on attempting to bomb cities into submission since they suck tactically.
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Sultan Sultanberger

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Re: The War in Ukraine
« Reply #3 on: March 29, 2022, 08:40:09 AM »
Reports of a potential cease fire with an agreement that Ukraine would basically give up Crimea and its far eastern territory and be officially neutral and not join NATO must be a dissatisfying pill to swallow but worth preventing the additional loss of life and destruction.  I have not see anything that would prevent them from joining the EU though I could be wrong.

IMO the West, including the United States, now needs a mini-Marshall Plan for Ukraine.  Pouring money into their rehabilitation, and turning them even more to the West and eventually getting them into the EU, is definitely worth the cost.
“True patriotism hates injustice in its own land more than anywhere else.” - Clarence Darrow

MU Fan in Connecticut

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Re: The War in Ukraine
« Reply #4 on: March 29, 2022, 09:23:40 AM »
There is a story this morning about Russia's 4th Armored.  It's supposed to be most and best trained unit, the best equipped and it had 220 of the newest and best T-80 tanks and well there's basically nothing left of the unit.  There are 80+ confirmed tanks destroyed by Ukraine and the actual number is said to be double that.  A large number of T-80s have also been captured by Ukraine and already redeployed by Ukraine.  Russia announced the remnants were going back to Russia "to regroup" but there's nothing left of the 4th to regroup. 

ChitownSpaceForRent

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Re: The War in Ukraine
« Reply #5 on: March 29, 2022, 09:28:51 AM »
Ukrainians are bad asses man. My girlfriend was in Ukraine for a Fullbright program this year, they pulled her and put her in Poland right in the middle of the Olympics because they knew.

Fron what she was telling me, her Ukrainian friends who couldn’t leave right away, who are all super artsy people mind you, and not people you would expect to be on the front lines were all getting ready to take up arms.

TSmith34

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Re: The War in Ukraine
« Reply #6 on: March 29, 2022, 10:26:42 AM »
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MuggsyB

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Re: The War in Ukraine
« Reply #7 on: March 29, 2022, 11:42:05 AM »
Reports of a potential cease fire with an agreement that Ukraine would basically give up Crimea and its far eastern territory and be officially neutral and not join NATO must be a dissatisfying pill to swallow but worth preventing the additional loss of life and destruction.  I have not see anything that would prevent them from joining the EU though I could be wrong.

IMO the West, including the United States, now needs a mini-Marshall Plan for Ukraine.  Pouring money into their rehabilitation, and turning them even more to the West and eventually getting them into the EU, is definitely worth the cost.

I think "a deal" like that would ultimately be a total failure.  And I'm sure Ukraine becoming more like "The West" would thrill Putin.  At this point I have no idea what the goals are of the United States regarding this War and future ramifications of this situation. 

What I do know is it's not conceivable that Biden's comment was a gaffe.  Especially since we are now aware that his responses to the "questioning" of his recent comments was from a prepared talking points paper.  He also knew all the questions in advance.  This is a problem regardless of your political leanings.

Where I disagree with most people,  and it's all sides of the political spectrum, is that "avoiding nuclear war " is the United States policy.  That's not a policy and you can list all sorts of things that we and Western European countries have done that Putin could construe as a reason for unleashing his nuclear arsenal. 

If that "deal" is actually made I would expect China to invade Taiwan within a year.  And if you think what's happening now is a s-show?  Multiply that by 1000 if Tawain is usurped by the CCP.   The policy and goals should be for Ukraine to win at all costs.  Period.  That means remaining a sovereign country, crippling Russia and Putin from ever threatening them or European NATO countries again, removing Putin's cash cow of oil and gas, and controlling some world order. 

If Biden "feels" that the pos should be taken out that's his prerogative as President of the United States.  His comment that he "feels" a certain way "morally" but that's not US policy makes literally no sense.  Now, I'm not saying regime change is necessarily the best answer but the way one "feels" as the leader of the free world generally leads to decisions /policies made by the United States.   
« Last Edit: March 29, 2022, 11:47:42 AM by MuggsyB »

Sultan Sultanberger

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Re: The War in Ukraine
« Reply #8 on: March 29, 2022, 11:55:11 AM »
If that "deal" is actually made I would expect China to invade Taiwan within a year.  And if you think what's happening now is a s-show?  Multiply that by 1000 if Tawain is usurped by the CCP.   The policy and goals should be for Ukraine to win at all costs.  Period.  That means remaining a sovereign country, crippling Russia and Putin from ever threatening them or European NATO countries again, removing Putin's cash cow of oil and gas, and controlling some world order. 


China invading Taiwan is infinitely more difficult than Russia invading Ukraine.  It's not happening.

And its easy for people in countries thousands of miles away to say "win at all costs," which I assume you mean capturing all of what was Ukraine a decade ago, but destroying even more property and killing thousands of more people are pretty hefty costs to hold onto areas that are populated with people who would likely rather be with Russia anyway.
“True patriotism hates injustice in its own land more than anywhere else.” - Clarence Darrow

MuggsyB

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Re: The War in Ukraine
« Reply #9 on: March 29, 2022, 12:06:13 PM »

China invading Taiwan is infinitely more difficult than Russia invading Ukraine.  It's not happening.

And its easy for people in countries thousands of miles away to say "win at all costs," which I assume you mean capturing all of what was Ukraine a decade ago, but destroying even more property and killing thousands of more people are pretty hefty costs to hold onto areas that are populated with people who would likely rather be with Russia anyway.

I completely disagree that "It's not happening" if Putin gets his way and is successful expanding Russian territory in Ukraine.  Keep in mind this all could have been prevented if we acted decisively back in July.

Goose

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Re: The War in Ukraine
« Reply #10 on: March 29, 2022, 12:10:48 PM »
fluff

What do you base your comments on China invading Taiwan as being more difficult and not happening?

MU Fan in Connecticut

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Re: The War in Ukraine
« Reply #11 on: March 29, 2022, 12:12:42 PM »
I think "a deal" like that would ultimately be a total failure.  And I'm sure Ukraine becoming more like "The West" would thrill Putin.  At this point I have no idea what the goals are of the United States regarding this War and future ramifications of this situation. 

What I do know is it's not conceivable that Biden's comment was a gaffe.  Especially since we are now aware that his responses to the "questioning" of his recent comments was from a prepared talking points paper.  He also knew all the questions in advance.  This is a problem regardless of your political leanings.

Where I disagree with most people,  and it's all sides of the political spectrum, is that "avoiding nuclear war " is the United States policy.  That's not a policy and you can list all sorts of things that we and Western European countries have done that Putin could construe as a reason for unleashing his nuclear arsenal. 

If that "deal" is actually made I would expect China to invade Taiwan within a year.  And if you think what's happening now is a s-show?  Multiply that by 1000 if Tawain is usurped by the CCP.   The policy and goals should be for Ukraine to win at all costs.  Period.  That means remaining a sovereign country, crippling Russia and Putin from ever threatening them or European NATO countries again, removing Putin's cash cow of oil and gas, and controlling some world order. 

If Biden "feels" that the pos should be taken out that's his prerogative as President of the United States.  His comment that he "feels" a certain way "morally" but that's not US policy makes literally no sense.  Now, I'm not saying regime change is necessarily the best answer but the way one "feels" as the leader of the free world generally leads to decisions /policies made by the United States.

FWIW, Boris Johnson said today that sanctions will NOT be lifted on Russia even if some sort of a ceasefire is agreed. 

MuggsyB

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Re: The War in Ukraine
« Reply #12 on: March 29, 2022, 12:28:58 PM »
FWIW, Boris Johnson said today that sanctions will NOT be lifted on Russia even if some sort of a ceasefire is agreed.

This "ceasefire" is most likely a moot point.  I don't think Putin has any intention of agreeing to anything despite his dumpster fire of a military. 

JWags85

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Re: The War in Ukraine
« Reply #13 on: March 29, 2022, 12:48:28 PM »
fluff

What do you base your comments on China invading Taiwan as being more difficult and not happening?

Id be quite interested in hearing this too.

The difference, IMO, is you've seen a lot of Russians who are like "no war" or there is pushback sentiment.  Ukraine is family, friends, neighbors, etc...

If China went after Taiwan, it would be cheered and supported full throat by the mainland, IMO. The Chinese government doesn't want Taiwan for strategic purposes like Russia and Ukraine, they fundamentally feel it has no right to exist and Id argue the majority in the country agree.

Ive mentioned before, one of the software engineers at my company immigrated from China about 25 years ago.  For a variety of reasons, but freedom of opportunity and opposition to Communism were kind of key drivers.  HOWEVER, bring up Taiwan?  She starts cursing under her breath in Mandarin and has nothing nice to say.  Our CFO brought back a Taiwanese cake for the officewhen he and his family stopped over there for a day on the way back from visiting family in Indonesia...and she literally refused to eat it.  It was hilarious as she LOVES sweets and trying any food people bring in.

Goose

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Re: The War in Ukraine
« Reply #14 on: March 29, 2022, 12:56:31 PM »
Wags

Fluff's comments are literally the first of its kind that I have read or heard on the topic. To say I was floored would not be an understatement. I had just read this morning in the WSJ that Taiwan is keeping a close eye on the Ukrainian military and how they are handling the war with Russia. There are many so-called experts that thought the Russia-Ukraine war could have triggered the start of the Taiwan invasion by China.

MU82

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Re: The War in Ukraine
« Reply #15 on: March 29, 2022, 01:19:01 PM »
I worry about Taiwan all the time. They are a proud people, and a strong ally to the United States.

I don't know if what's happening in Ukraine would affect China's willingness to attack Taiwan one way or the other.

One big problem for Taiwan is who would come to its rescue if China unleashed its military might? Unlike Ukraine, which borders EU countries who are sympathetic to its cause (and who have a keen sense of self-preservation), Taiwan is an island that is isolated from the rest of the world.

Would the U.S. or other countries be willing to wage world war if China tries to take Taiwan? I sure feel for Taiwan and its people.
"We have a severe problem in American life today called the assault on truth." -- Pulitzer Prize winning New Yorker editor David Remnick

MuggsyB

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Re: The War in Ukraine
« Reply #16 on: March 29, 2022, 01:23:41 PM »
I worry about Taiwan all the time. They are a proud people, and a strong ally to the United States.

I don't know if what's happening in Ukraine would affect China's willingness to attack Taiwan one way or the other.

One big problem for Taiwan is who would come to its rescue if China unleashed its military might? Unlike Ukraine, which borders EU countries who are sympathetic to its cause (and who have a keen sense of self-preservation), Taiwan is an island that is isolated from the rest of the world.

Would the U.S. or other countries be willing to wage world war if China tries to take Taiwan? I sure feel for Taiwan and its people.

It's far more than being a strong ally.  We are completely dependent on their semiconductor foundries. 
« Last Edit: March 29, 2022, 01:25:16 PM by MuggsyB »

Goose

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Re: The War in Ukraine
« Reply #17 on: March 29, 2022, 01:25:53 PM »
82

There are very, very few countries that actually acknowledge Taiwan as its own country. They have allies, but we are top of the list. Almost all of China experts felt that the Russia-Ukraine situation could be provide some cover for China if they invaded Taiwan. 99.9999% of the people I follow believe it is when, not if, China invades and takes over Taiwan. For the record, I believe that would be a two minute fight, unless the USA helped Taiwan.

Sultan Sultanberger

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Re: The War in Ukraine
« Reply #18 on: March 29, 2022, 01:31:42 PM »
Of course, my statement of "it's not happening" is just a guess.  I am not an expert in foreign affairs by any means, but China knows it would be *extremely* difficult and costly to invade not to mention occupy.  These are the reasons that the US only briefly looked at invading "Formosa" before looking elsewhere.

https://thediplomat.com/2021/05/why-a-taiwan-invasion-would-look-nothing-like-d-day

Especially after watching the world's reaction to Russia's invasion of Ukraine, how difficult a time Russia is having on a MUCH easier geographic battlefield, and how humiliated Russia is feeling, IMO they have to come to the conclusion that invading Taiwan would be an enormous mistake.
“True patriotism hates injustice in its own land more than anywhere else.” - Clarence Darrow

MuggsyB

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Re: The War in Ukraine
« Reply #19 on: March 29, 2022, 01:32:40 PM »
82

There are very, very few countries that actually acknowledge Taiwan as its own country. They have allies, but we are top of the list. Almost all of China experts felt that the Russia-Ukraine situation could be provide some cover for China if they invaded Taiwan. 99.9999% of the people I follow believe it is when, not if, China invades and takes over Taiwan. For the record, I believe that would be a two minute fight, unless the USA helped Taiwan.

It would be the immediate end of the USA maintaining any semblance of a balance of power in the world Goose if China seized the semiconductor industry there.  They would control everything basically and we would have zero capabilities to change that dynamic.  There's also nothing that we have done to this point in Ukraine that would make the CCP hesitate.  It's beyond scary and impacts the entire world.

Sultan Sultanberger

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Re: The War in Ukraine
« Reply #20 on: March 29, 2022, 01:32:55 PM »
82

There are very, very few countries that actually acknowledge Taiwan as its own country. They have allies, but we are top of the list. Almost all of China experts felt that the Russia-Ukraine situation could be provide some cover for China if they invaded Taiwan. 99.9999% of the people I follow believe it is when, not if, China invades and takes over Taiwan. For the record, I believe that would be a two minute fight, unless the USA helped Taiwan.


I have absolutely no idea why you think the bolded.
“True patriotism hates injustice in its own land more than anywhere else.” - Clarence Darrow

MuggsyB

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Re: The War in Ukraine
« Reply #21 on: March 29, 2022, 01:36:10 PM »
Of course, my statement of "it's not happening" is just a guess.  I am not an expert in foreign affairs by any means, but China knows it would be *extremely* difficult and costly to invade not to mention occupy.  These are the reasons that the US only briefly looked at invading "Formosa" before looking elsewhere.

https://thediplomat.com/2021/05/why-a-taiwan-invasion-would-look-nothing-like-d-day

Especially after watching the world's reaction to Russia's invasion of Ukraine, how difficult a time Russia is having on a MUCH easier geographic battlefield, and how humiliated Russia is feeling, IMO they have to come to the conclusion that invading Taiwan would be an enormous mistake.

I wouldn't think the Russian/Ukraine military operations are analogous at all to a potential China invasion of Taiwan.

MuggsyB

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Re: The War in Ukraine
« Reply #22 on: March 29, 2022, 01:39:11 PM »

I have absolutely no idea why you think the bolded.

Fluffy, Taiwan defending itself is still dependent on USA military support and direct confrontation with the CCP.

Goose

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Re: The War in Ukraine
« Reply #23 on: March 29, 2022, 01:41:26 PM »
Muggsy

There is zero doubt in my mind that the USA has to protect Taiwan, at all costs. The stakes in Taiwan are higher than any place on the planet, IMO and we are in a race against time on building semiconductor manufacturing. As you noted, we have done nothing in current Russia war that would persuade China to second guess invading Taiwan. China invaded/taking over Taiwan is very high priority in the President Xi playbook and anyone that does not believe it is a real possibility is greatly uninformed on the region.

Sultan Sultanberger

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Re: The War in Ukraine
« Reply #24 on: March 29, 2022, 01:43:35 PM »
I wouldn't think the Russian/Ukraine military operations are analogous at all to a potential China invasion of Taiwan.

Agreed.  It would be much more difficult.


Fluffy, Taiwan defending itself is still dependent on USA military support and direct confrontation with the CCP.

Non-answer but sure....
“True patriotism hates injustice in its own land more than anywhere else.” - Clarence Darrow