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Author Topic: The War in Ukraine  (Read 23061 times)

Goose

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Re: The War in Ukraine
« Reply #25 on: March 29, 2022, 01:45:22 PM »
fluff


I said two minutes because it likely would take 15-30 seconds for China to get all of their birds fired up and about another 20 seconds to fly them from Xiamen over the Xiamen Bay into Taiwan.

MuggsyB

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Re: The War in Ukraine
« Reply #26 on: March 29, 2022, 02:19:18 PM »
Agreed.  It would be much more difficult.


Non-answer but sure....

First of all, we have no idea what Putin will do from this point forward in Ukraine.  My guess is he's recalibrating and his troops need major supplies, but either way it is certainly not inconceivable he'll carpet bomb and use chemical weapons like he has in the past.  However, no one predicted how difficult this would be for Putin including military experts.

Now if  you're saying Xi taking over Taiwan would be harder if we do not directly protect Taiwan I can't agree with you.  If we fight in concert with the Taiwanese air defense systems it will absolutely be harder than Putin's attack of Ukraine.

Again, I don't see anything that would frighten the CCP from attenpting an assault on Taiwan based on the West and the USA's actions thus far.

Jockey

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Re: The War in Ukraine
« Reply #27 on: March 29, 2022, 02:37:54 PM »
I think the only thing preventing a Chinese invasion are economic concerns. I don’t really see how that will change.

Hards Alumni

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Re: The War in Ukraine
« Reply #28 on: March 29, 2022, 03:31:29 PM »

China invading Taiwan is infinitely more difficult than Russia invading Ukraine.  It's not happening.

And its easy for people in countries thousands of miles away to say "win at all costs," which I assume you mean capturing all of what was Ukraine a decade ago, but destroying even more property and killing thousands of more people are pretty hefty costs to hold onto areas that are populated with people who would likely rather be with Russia anyway.

Agreed.  Remember how bloody the US taking Okinawa was?  China would have to reduce Tiawan to rubble and ashes before they'd cede the island.

Hards Alumni

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Re: The War in Ukraine
« Reply #29 on: March 29, 2022, 03:39:36 PM »
fluff


I said two minutes because it likely would take 15-30 seconds for China to get all of their birds fired up and about another 20 seconds to fly them from Xiamen over the Xiamen Bay into Taiwan.

Do you expect the Taiwan military to simply lob rocks at the Chinese airplanes?  They'd need an amphibious assault to get their soldiers over there.

The Taiwan military has 450k members.  China has something like 2 million soliders.  There is a general rule that you need a 3:1 ratio to capture territory.  That means China would be committing 1.2-1.3 million soldiers to capture the island.  That is a very dangerous proposition.

JWags85

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Re: The War in Ukraine
« Reply #30 on: March 29, 2022, 03:57:20 PM »
Do you expect the Taiwan military to simply lob rocks at the Chinese airplanes?  They'd need an amphibious assault to get their soldiers over there.

The Taiwan military has 450k members.  China has something like 2 million soliders.  There is a general rule that you need a 3:1 ratio to capture territory.  That means China would be committing 1.2-1.3 million soldiers to capture the island.  That is a very dangerous proposition.

Active.  I believe they have another 1-1.5MM in reserve soldiers as well

MU Fan in Connecticut

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Re: The War in Ukraine
« Reply #31 on: March 29, 2022, 04:20:23 PM »
I found this.  Looks like a comprehensive read on US-Taiwan-China

Do the US and China have a ‘Taiwan agreement’?
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/10/8/do-the-us-and-china-have-a-taiwan-agreement
« Last Edit: March 29, 2022, 04:33:11 PM by MU Fan in Connecticut »

Goose

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Re: The War in Ukraine
« Reply #32 on: March 29, 2022, 04:29:38 PM »
Hards

I have spent the last 37 years of my life making a living first in Taiwan, then and now China and have expanded to all SE Asia over the past half decade. By NO means do I feel I am an expert on China, Taiwan or any other SE Asia country, but I definitely know that I have a well balanced, firsthand knowledge of the region. I only say this as a backdrop of how I come to my decisions/comments on this topic.

China is very unique and not for the reasons that most pundits use as a basis of their talking points. There are obvious traits they possess, that most everyone will agree on, they are calculating, ruthless, well prepared for any conflict they much choose to enter and very disciplined, but the biggest trait they possess today is President Xi and his power. Now, I am sure you will say you agree on the President Xi comment, but I want add a very basic twist to his significance. I would be willing to bet a nice sum of money that most, educated Americans would struggle to name the last leader of China. President Xi is now know by name and face by virtually every educated American. I believe his rise to power will go down as the biggest power shift in the world in this century.

China, if they invade Taiwan, will not be 100% prepared for victory, but will be 200% prepared for any twist that could their way in this battle, including any USA involvement. If they invade, which I believe they will, it will be the most prepared military operation the world has ever seen. Chinese nationalism has never been higher and a takeover of China will only throw gas on that fire.

Sadly, I believe the Belt and Road initiative is even more dangerous for the US than a possible Taiwan invasion. Their influence in Africa, Central and South America and elsewhere is growing by the day. President Xi looks at Taiwan as a symbolic W for China, the Belt and Road initiative is his crown jewel. Now, I believe the B&R could ultimately backfire on them if they invade Taiwan and have serious economic sanctions handcuff them.

Now to answer your military question, I think it would be short lived battle with very little harm inflicted on China for the reasons noted above. I am sure many on here have spent time in China and it is virtually impossible to not see their might on display. I made my first to Peking in 1985 and have seen this superpower grow over 37 years. You cannot have domestic flights in China without having delays due to China Air Force conducting training in airspace over the airport, their naval capabilities is on full display in and around China and I am guessing they have figured out the technology needed to get the job done.

I love Taiwan and believe I received an MBA on how to do business from the Taiwanese and will always love Taiwan. IMO, I do not think they have a chance to last very long in a battle with China. Two minutes might be a bit quick, but it would not be lengthy with USA military support, and real support.

MU Fan in Connecticut

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Re: The War in Ukraine
« Reply #33 on: March 29, 2022, 04:29:58 PM »
Do you expect the Taiwan military to simply lob rocks at the Chinese airplanes?  They'd need an amphibious assault to get their soldiers over there.

The Taiwan military has 450k members.  China has something like 2 million soliders.  There is a general rule that you need a 3:1 ratio to capture territory.  That means China would be committing 1.2-1.3 million soldiers to capture the island.  That is a very dangerous proposition.

This is why a Chinese invasion while still possible is not probable.
* China is more cautious then Russia.
* China has not invaded anyone in modern history.  There's no experience, no proof they are any more capable than Russia's army.
* Piggybacking the previous point, amphibious landings are extremely difficult.  Look who has done them successfully in history: Is there a list beyond USA, UK & Canada?  Japan, perhaps?
* Despite being much more involved with the world economy than Russia, China will jeopardize theirs.  More to lose than Russia.  And they don't have oil to back themselves up.  Ask Japan how that worked for them in WWII? 

#UnleashSean

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Re: The War in Ukraine
« Reply #34 on: March 29, 2022, 04:32:03 PM »
First of all, we have no idea what Putin will do from this point forward in Ukraine.  My guess is he's recalibrating and his troops need major supplies, but either way it is certainly not inconceivable he'll carpet bomb and use chemical weapons like he has in the past.  However, no one predicted how difficult this would be for Putin including military experts.

Now if  you're saying Xi taking over Taiwan would be harder if we do not directly protect Taiwan I can't agree with you.  If we fight in concert with the Taiwanese air defense systems it will absolutely be harder than Putin's attack of Ukraine.

Again, I don't see anything that would frighten the CCP from attenpting an assault on Taiwan based on the West and the USA's actions thus far.

Not many people realized just how far behind technologically the Russian military really was.

Its become clear that american tech is literally decades ahead. I originally thought that this was going to be the first "modern" war against two countries who would rival each other technologically.

It seems that became untrue fast.

MU Fan in Connecticut

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Re: The War in Ukraine
« Reply #35 on: March 29, 2022, 04:32:30 PM »
Hards

I have spent the last 37 years of my life making a living first in Taiwan, then and now China and have expanded to all SE Asia over the past half decade. By NO means do I feel I am an expert on China, Taiwan or any other SE Asia country, but I definitely know that I have a well balanced, firsthand knowledge of the region. I only say this as a backdrop of how I come to my decisions/comments on this topic.

China is very unique and not for the reasons that most pundits use as a basis of their talking points. There are obvious traits they possess, that most everyone will agree on, they are calculating, ruthless, well prepared for any conflict they much choose to enter and very disciplined, but the biggest trait they possess today is President Xi and his power. Now, I am sure you will say you agree on the President Xi comment, but I want add a very basic twist to his significance. I would be willing to bet a nice sum of money that most, educated Americans would struggle to name the last leader of China. President Xi is now know by name and face by virtually every educated American. I believe his rise to power will go down as the biggest power shift in the world in this century.

China, if they invade Taiwan, will not be 100% prepared for victory, but will be 200% prepared for any twist that could their way in this battle, including any USA involvement. If they invade, which I believe they will, it will be the most prepared military operation the world has ever seen. Chinese nationalism has never been higher and a takeover of China will only throw gas on that fire.

Sadly, I believe the Belt and Road initiative is even more dangerous for the US than a possible Taiwan invasion. Their influence in Africa, Central and South America and elsewhere is growing by the day. President Xi looks at Taiwan as a symbolic W for China, the Belt and Road initiative is his crown jewel. Now, I believe the B&R could ultimately backfire on them if they invade Taiwan and have serious economic sanctions handcuff them.

Now to answer your military question, I think it would be short lived battle with very little harm inflicted on China for the reasons noted above. I am sure many on here have spent time in China and it is virtually impossible to not see their might on display. I made my first to Peking in 1985 and have seen this superpower grow over 37 years. You cannot have domestic flights in China without having delays due to China Air Force conducting training in airspace over the airport, their naval capabilities is on full display in and around China and I am guessing they have figured out the technology needed to get the job done.

I love Taiwan and believe I received an MBA on how to do business from the Taiwanese and will always love Taiwan. IMO, I do not think they have a chance to last very long in a battle with China. Two minutes might be a bit quick, but it would not be lengthy with USA military support, and real support.

Goose,
You are making the same mistake everyone said about Russia invading Ukraine.
Big does not make it better or even good.

MU Fan in Connecticut

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Re: The War in Ukraine
« Reply #36 on: March 29, 2022, 04:37:45 PM »
Hards


Sadly, I believe the Belt and Road initiative is even more dangerous for the US than a possible Taiwan invasion. Their influence in Africa, Central and South America and elsewhere is growing by the day. President Xi looks at Taiwan as a symbolic W for China, the Belt and Road initiative is his crown jewel. Now, I believe the B&R could ultimately backfire on them if they invade Taiwan and have serious economic sanctions handcuff them.



Other countries are using the Belt & Road initiative for their own gain.  They have no interest in China.  I've read plenty on it recently.  There are articles out there.
China wants them subservient and China's arrogance pisses African countries off.  They are quietly asking for any US and European involvement/investment so they don't have to deal with China. 

Goose

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Re: The War in Ukraine
« Reply #37 on: March 29, 2022, 04:42:08 PM »
MU Fan

The economic blowback is definitely something China would weigh carefully, but at some point, I believe they go all in regardless of how it affects them economically. That is why the Belt and Road initiative is so big, IMO. They are buying allies, many with vast natural resources and they are doing so when many Americans having no knowledge of it. I believe the misunderstanding of China by the West might be their biggest asset. I try and read or watch as much as I can on China every day because I need to for work and because I believe it is something we all should be educated on.

One thing on the economy, I 100% believe that severe economic sanctions on China would hurt the West far more than China in the short run. We cannot handle the supply chain issues now, what do we do if cut them off? Reshoring on a mass scale is apipedream, IMO and China fully knows this and knows our weakness. Why not hit Taiwan when it hurt us most?

Hards Alumni

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Re: The War in Ukraine
« Reply #38 on: March 29, 2022, 04:43:19 PM »
Hards

I have spent the last 37 years of my life making a living first in Taiwan, then and now China and have expanded to all SE Asia over the past half decade. By NO means do I feel I am an expert on China, Taiwan or any other SE Asia country, but I definitely know that I have a well balanced, firsthand knowledge of the region. I only say this as a backdrop of how I come to my decisions/comments on this topic.

China is very unique and not for the reasons that most pundits use as a basis of their talking points. There are obvious traits they possess, that most everyone will agree on, they are calculating, ruthless, well prepared for any conflict they much choose to enter and very disciplined, but the biggest trait they possess today is President Xi and his power. Now, I am sure you will say you agree on the President Xi comment, but I want add a very basic twist to his significance. I would be willing to bet a nice sum of money that most, educated Americans would struggle to name the last leader of China. President Xi is now know by name and face by virtually every educated American. I believe his rise to power will go down as the biggest power shift in the world in this century.

China, if they invade Taiwan, will not be 100% prepared for victory, but will be 200% prepared for any twist that could their way in this battle, including any USA involvement. If they invade, which I believe they will, it will be the most prepared military operation the world has ever seen. Chinese nationalism has never been higher and a takeover of China will only throw gas on that fire.

Sadly, I believe the Belt and Road initiative is even more dangerous for the US than a possible Taiwan invasion. Their influence in Africa, Central and South America and elsewhere is growing by the day. President Xi looks at Taiwan as a symbolic W for China, the Belt and Road initiative is his crown jewel. Now, I believe the B&R could ultimately backfire on them if they invade Taiwan and have serious economic sanctions handcuff them.

Now to answer your military question, I think it would be short lived battle with very little harm inflicted on China for the reasons noted above. I am sure many on here have spent time in China and it is virtually impossible to not see their might on display. I made my first to Peking in 1985 and have seen this superpower grow over 37 years. You cannot have domestic flights in China without having delays due to China Air Force conducting training in airspace over the airport, their naval capabilities is on full display in and around China and I am guessing they have figured out the technology needed to get the job done.

I love Taiwan and believe I received an MBA on how to do business from the Taiwanese and will always love Taiwan. IMO, I do not think they have a chance to last very long in a battle with China. Two minutes might be a bit quick, but it would not be lengthy with USA military support, and real support.

I agree with much of what you've said, but I whole-heartedly disagree with your military assessment.  Also, I'm no expert.  I just love military, history, and global politics.  We can disagree about the difficulty of taking an island of motivated inhabitants that is 14k sq mi.  Okinawa is 463 sq mi.  15k-20k dead Americans... we took it, but it was EXPENSIVE.  It was the bloodiest battle in the Pacific theater in WW2.  Could China eventually overwhelm Taiwan?  Yes.  Would it be extremely costly?  Absolutely.

Hards Alumni

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Re: The War in Ukraine
« Reply #39 on: March 29, 2022, 04:44:45 PM »
MU Fan

The economic blowback is definitely something China would weigh carefully, but at some point, I believe they go all in regardless of how it affects them economically. That is why the Belt and Road initiative is so big, IMO. They are buying allies, many with vast natural resources and they are doing so when many Americans having no knowledge of it. I believe the misunderstanding of China by the West might be their biggest asset. I try and read or watch as much as I can on China every day because I need to for work and because I believe it is something we all should be educated on.

One thing on the economy, I 100% believe that severe economic sanctions on China would hurt the West far more than China in the short run. We cannot handle the supply chain issues now, what do we do if cut them off? Reshoring on a mass scale is apipedream, IMO and China fully knows this and knows our weakness. Why not hit Taiwan when it hurt us most?

100% agree.

MuggsyB

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Re: The War in Ukraine
« Reply #40 on: March 29, 2022, 04:47:00 PM »
Goose,
You are making the same mistake everyone said about Russia invading Ukraine.
Big does not make it better or even good.

But that doesn’t mean China's military or their potential attack of Taiwan would be remotely as inept as Russia's military or their attack in Ukraine.

MuggsyB

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Re: The War in Ukraine
« Reply #41 on: March 29, 2022, 04:48:53 PM »
I agree with much of what you've said, but I whole-heartedly disagree with your military assessment.  Also, I'm no expert.  I just love military, history, and global politics.  We can disagree about the difficulty of taking an island of motivated inhabitants that is 14k sq mi.  Okinawa is 463 sq mi.  15k-20k dead Americans... we took it, but it was EXPENSIVE.  It was the bloodiest battle in the Pacific theater in WW2.  Could China eventually overwhelm Taiwan?  Yes.  Would it be extremely costly?  Absolutely.

You cannot compare Okinawa in the 1940's to a potential military assault of Taiwan in 2023.

Goose

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Re: The War in Ukraine
« Reply #42 on: March 29, 2022, 04:51:35 PM »
MU Fan
 
Of course, China went in and ran unsupervised in these countries and the smart ones are now realizing that. That said, the infrastructure and investments are being run by Chinese in those countries and that creates another issue. What is the US supposed to do, go into these countries and take over Chinese infrastructure investments? For the time being, the horse is out of the barn on the B&R and we gave China a green light to get a dangerous head start in these underdeveloped countries. I doubt if China is going hand over the super ports they have built in Pakistan and elsewhere because countries are upset they let China in. They are almost decade into this initiative and not going to play nice because a country in Africa regret getting into bed with them

Goose

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Re: The War in Ukraine
« Reply #43 on: March 29, 2022, 04:53:33 PM »
MU Fan

No offense, comparing China and Russia is like comparing MU and Villanova. I will say it again, President Xi is a smart, smart man and he will leave no stone unturned.
« Last Edit: March 29, 2022, 04:58:05 PM by Goose »

MuggsyB

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Re: The War in Ukraine
« Reply #44 on: March 29, 2022, 04:59:24 PM »
What would you do Goose if you were in charge?  This administration seems completely lost and inept to me as did the prior administration but in different ways. 

Hards Alumni

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Re: The War in Ukraine
« Reply #45 on: March 29, 2022, 04:59:47 PM »
You cannot compare Okinawa in the 1940's to a potential military assault of Taiwan in 2023.

You're right.  There will be much more bloodshed in a modern military theater than with the inferior weapons of the 40s.

Uncle Rico

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Re: The War in Ukraine
« Reply #46 on: March 29, 2022, 05:02:07 PM »
MU Fan

No offense, comparing China and Russia is like comparing MU and Villanova. I will say it again, President Xi is a smart, smart man and he will leave stone unturned.

Yeah, it’s not an apt comparison at all.  I don’t have your intimate knowledge on dealing with China but spent enough time learning about China and its people. 

If they ever should choose to take on a military endeavor, it’ll be far more calculated and prepared for than Russia.  It’s important to understand the history of the people of China and Russia to understand the fundamental differences in approach and action.

Russia has spent centuries trying to define Russian nationalism and its place in the world.  It still hasn’t because of the makeup of its inhabitants and the view of government from the general population.  China has spent a century defining Chinese nationalism and preparing and executing plans to integrate into the world as a power.  It is a huge gap between the two
Tis a shame, 'tis a rotton shame, for if ye can enjoy the walkin’ ye can probably enjoy the other times in yer life when ve're in between. And that's most o' the time; wouldn't ye say?

Goose

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Re: The War in Ukraine
« Reply #47 on: March 29, 2022, 05:07:02 PM »
Muggsy,

Sadly, what I have done for a living has helped create the issue we face. Dating back to President Clinton, every President has allowed China to play unsupervised and it created a major mess. Without a military conflict I believe hurting them economically in a big way would have been the solution twenty years ago and we missed that opportunity. If American's could stomach real economic heartache, that would be my solution today.  The problem is, it would be real economic heartache and the Fed would not have the ability to cover that mess because they are out of bullets.

Social unrest in China would be China's biggest obstacle to overcome and that probably is still their biggest fear. Economic pain brings out the worst in all of us and China would be no different.
« Last Edit: March 29, 2022, 05:13:57 PM by Goose »

Goose

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Re: The War in Ukraine
« Reply #48 on: March 29, 2022, 05:12:14 PM »
Rico

I think a big misconception today is understanding Chinese nationalism. This not our Grandparent's China and mindset has changed more in a decade than the previous 50+ years. I always feared younger, educated Chinese having the same nationalistic pride that American's had and that is now happening. The world got small and Chinese now believe they can be the superpower of the world and not willing to wait another 100 years for it to happen.

MuggsyB

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Re: The War in Ukraine
« Reply #49 on: March 29, 2022, 05:18:28 PM »
Muggsy,

Sadly, what I have done for a living has helped create the issue we face. Dating back to President Clinton, every President has allowed China to play unsupervised and it created a major mess. Without a military conflict I believe hurting them economically in a big way would have been the solution twenty years ago and we missed that opportunity. If American's could stomach real economic heartache, that would be my solution today.  The problem is, it would be real economic heartache and the Fed would not have the ability to cover that mess because they are out of bullets.

What do you mean specifically by "stomaching economic heartache" today and how would this thwart Xi and his grandiose plans?