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Author Topic: The War in Ukraine  (Read 23062 times)

Uncle Rico

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Re: The War in Ukraine
« Reply #50 on: March 29, 2022, 05:22:34 PM »
Rico

I think a big misconception today is understanding Chinese nationalism. This not our Grandparent's China and mindset has changed more in a decade than the previous 50+ years. I always feared younger, educated Chinese having the same nationalistic pride that American's had and that is now happening. The world got small and Chinese now believe they can be the superpower of the world and not willing to wait another 100 years for it to happen.

I happened to be in a Chinese history class when Deng died in ‘97 and had a long talk about it with my professor who was a serious Sino-phile and he was adamant once the old guard was all off this mortal coil, the change from party and cult of personality obedience to that of nationalism would be China’s biggest change and make them our biggest threat from a nation standpoint. Him, along with others at the time were prescient about the explosion of McWorld post-Cold War being the immediate threat but long term, China was the sleeping giant
Tis a shame, 'tis a rotton shame, for if ye can enjoy the walkin’ ye can probably enjoy the other times in yer life when ve're in between. And that's most o' the time; wouldn't ye say?

MuggsyB

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Re: The War in Ukraine
« Reply #51 on: March 29, 2022, 05:23:53 PM »
You're right.  There will be much more bloodshed in a modern military theater than with the inferior weapons of the 40s.

So then why did you write "remember Okinawa" in your pseudo analogy/argument?

Goose

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Re: The War in Ukraine
« Reply #52 on: March 29, 2022, 05:28:21 PM »
Muggsy

There are a lot smarter guys on here on how we won the Cold War, but if we put China into a depression, we would have a very, very, very serious economic crisis. President Xi would likely face very strong internal conflicts within his country at a very large scale. Could he survive it, sure, but at what cost?

I noted earlier that I believe the USA government is woefully under educated on how China works, their capabilities and what makes them make decisions. The pandemic has only had made that worse, IMO. China has two plus of years of limited Western (aside from spies) presence in China and a lot happens in two years. My honest opinion, I think Tim Cook and Apple has better Chinese intel than our government does.

MuggsyB

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Re: The War in Ukraine
« Reply #53 on: March 29, 2022, 05:32:06 PM »
I happened to be in a Chinese history class when Deng died in ‘97 and had a long talk about it with my professor who was a serious Sino-phile and he was adamant once the old guard was all off this mortal coil, the change from party and cult of personality obedience to that of nationalism would be China’s biggest change and make them our biggest threat from a nation standpoint. Him, along with others at the time were prescient about the explosion of McWorld post-Cold War being the immediate threat but long term, China was the sleeping giant

China's history of nationalism goes back to their dynastic cycles.  But Goose makes an interesting point on how it's been mobilized in a smaller world.  What's changed is thei CCP's use of capitalism and natural materials to accumulate much more wealth and power.   I'f I live to 70 It's very possible we will no longer be the premier superpower.  Unless I stop it.  :)

Hards Alumni

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Re: The War in Ukraine
« Reply #54 on: March 29, 2022, 05:34:17 PM »
So then why did you write "remember Okinawa" in your pseudo analogy/argument?

What?  I'm saying China's troops will die by the thousands trying to take Taiwan.  Just like Americans died by the thousands taking Okinawa.  Oki is tiny.  Taiwan is a whole-ass country and orders of magnitude larger.

I was picking at you for agreeing with Goose about the ease you two seem to think China will take Taiwan.

MuggsyB

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Re: The War in Ukraine
« Reply #55 on: March 29, 2022, 05:36:48 PM »
Muggsy

There are a lot smarter guys on here on how we won the Cold War, but if we put China into a depression, we would have a very, very, very serious economic crisis. President Xi would likely face very strong internal conflicts within his country at a very large scale. Could he survive it, sure, but at what cost?

I noted earlier that I believe the USA government is woefully under educated on how China works, their capabilities and what makes them make decisions. The pandemic has only had made that worse, IMO. China has two plus of years of limited Western (aside from spies) presence in China and a lot happens in two years. My honest opinion, I think Tim Cook and Apple has better Chinese intel than our government does.

Interesting.....I guess it's not my expertise but I fear we lack foresight and have cabinet members that have no idea what they're doing, or even saying day to day. 

Goose

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Re: The War in Ukraine
« Reply #56 on: March 29, 2022, 05:37:55 PM »
Rico

Prior to wasting my time on scoop, I wrote countless letters/emails to government leaders, major media outlets and even Mark Belling hoping to share the thoughts your professor shared with you, and I received the same response I get on scoop talking ball. I was, and still am obsessed, on this topic because I strongly believe we took a sound asleep giant and made them into a real giant. Again, I am far from an expert, but I witnessed this on a monthly basis for three plus decades. I saw China have an industrial revolution, a sexual revolution and military buildup not seen WWII in thirty year period. We gave them the playbook and they added their own personal twist to it.

Muggs
The nationalism today is that because of gained wealth and material things they are convincing people their way is the right way. Couple that with the CCP sharing the MU campus crime thread to their people to show what idiots we have become:)
 

MuggsyB

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Re: The War in Ukraine
« Reply #57 on: March 29, 2022, 05:40:20 PM »
What?  I'm saying China's troops will die by the thousands trying to take Taiwan.  Just like Americans died by the thousands taking Okinawa.  Oki is tiny.  Taiwan is a whole-ass country and orders of magnitude larger.

I was picking at you for agreeing with Goose about the ease you two seem to think China will take Taiwan.

I never intimated or stated they would take them with ease.  I mentioned the two possible scenarios with or without USA backing.  The fact is none of us really know just as apparently the experts didn't know about the difficulties Putin would face in Ukraine. 

MuggsyB

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Re: The War in Ukraine
« Reply #58 on: March 29, 2022, 05:44:43 PM »
Rico

Prior to wasting my time on scoop, I wrote countless letters/emails to government leaders, major media outlets and even Mark Belling hoping to share the thoughts your professor shared with you, and I received the same response I get on scoop talking ball. I was, and still am obsessed, on this topic because I strongly believe we took a sound asleep giant and made them into a real giant. Again, I am far from an expert, but I witnessed this on a monthly basis for three plus decades. I saw China have an industrial revolution, a sexual revolution and military buildup not seen WWII in thirty year period. We gave them the playbook and they added their own personal twist to it.

Muggs
The nationalism today is that because of gained wealth and material things they are convincing people their way is the right way. Couple that with the CCP sharing the MU campus crime thread to their people to show what idiots we have become:)

I don't know enough about it but do you feel Chinese Nationalism today has spread to struggling socioeconomic classes there?  Because historically nationalism was not easily spread in rural areas or what have you.

MuggsyB

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Re: The War in Ukraine
« Reply #59 on: March 29, 2022, 05:46:53 PM »
What?  I'm saying China's troops will die by the thousands trying to take Taiwan.  Just like Americans died by the thousands taking Okinawa.  Oki is tiny.  Taiwan is a whole-ass country and orders of magnitude larger.

I was picking at you for agreeing with Goose about the ease you two seem to think China will take Taiwan.

It's too bad we didn't listen to Taiwan about COVID and allowed the WHO to pretend they don't exist.

Goose

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Re: The War in Ukraine
« Reply #60 on: March 29, 2022, 05:52:51 PM »
Muggsy


I cannot speak about rural China mindset at all. I can say that I really love the Chinese people that are still in the smaller cities (under 2m or so), but no feel for the sticks. That said, 100's of millions of people have moved to urban areas and those are the folks I am referring about.  To put things in perspective, I think Guangdong Province has somewhere around 120m living there and you can drive to all four borders in a half day or so if there were not 120m people living there.

MuggsyB

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Re: The War in Ukraine
« Reply #61 on: March 29, 2022, 06:03:55 PM »
Muggsy


I cannot speak about rural China mindset at all. I can say that I really love the Chinese people that are still in the smaller cities (under 2m or so), but no feel for the sticks. That said, 100's of millions of people have moved to urban areas and those are the folks I am referring about.  To put things in perspective, I think Guangdong Province has somewhere around 120m living there and you can drive to all four borders in a half day or so if there were not 120m people living there.

I've done some business in Hong Kong and Shanghai but don't entirely  have a feel for this specific nationalism you have written about.  Obviously my Hong Kong experiences may give me false overall perceptions.

MU Fan in Connecticut

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Re: The War in Ukraine
« Reply #62 on: March 29, 2022, 06:09:28 PM »
Tom Clancy's book Red Storm Rising has been referenced often lately because how much he was right about what would happen to Russian military invasion.   One of his last books (written with Mark Greany) is Threat Vector dealing with China.  Basically China threatens cyber war and invasion and does it and US military puts them in their place.  It ends in stalemate because the US is not putting troops on the ground in China but China is forced to back off of everything and their premier looses face.

JWags85

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Re: The War in Ukraine
« Reply #63 on: March 29, 2022, 06:11:08 PM »
Muggsy


I cannot speak about rural China mindset at all. I can say that I really love the Chinese people that are still in the smaller cities (under 2m or so), but no feel for the sticks. That said, 100's of millions of people have moved to urban areas and those are the folks I am referring about.  To put things in perspective, I think Guangdong Province has somewhere around 120m living there and you can drive to all four borders in a half day or so if there were not 120m people living there.

For perspective,  Shenzhen is the 3rd largest city in China.  Bordering on top 10 in the world.  A manufacturing and economic powerhouse.  When Al and the Warriors on a title in 1977...it was a glorified fishing village about the size of Madison.  Guangdong province itself, that Goose mentions and where Shenzhen is, has basically tripled in size since the 70s.

Also of note, in Shenzhen, 95% of the population is under 65.

I've done some business in Hong Kong and Shanghai but don't entirely  have a feel for this specific nationalism you have written about.  Obviously my Hong Kong experiences may give me false overall perceptions.

HK doesn't count.  Thats not China...yet at least.  Very different people and cultural mindset, much of which was pretty firmly anti-China hive mind.  And Shanghai, thats like going to NYC to get a pulse on the US as a whole.

Goose

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Re: The War in Ukraine
« Reply #64 on: March 29, 2022, 06:13:39 PM »
Wags


I was in Shenzhen in 1985 and the population was roughly 250k. A lot has changed.

MU Fan in Connecticut

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Re: The War in Ukraine
« Reply #65 on: March 29, 2022, 06:16:45 PM »
And the world will see a Chinese invasion of Taiwan well in advance.  Where are they hiding all those LSTs? 
Are they air dropping all those troops in?    And up a mountain?  Staring at Taiwan from China aren't you looking UP a mountain?  That's not easy to take militarily especially after having to cross a long water body. 

Goose

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Re: The War in Ukraine
« Reply #66 on: March 29, 2022, 06:26:38 PM »
MU Fan,

 The closest point between Taiwan and China was the biggest smuggling route in the 80's and 90's, I believe China can navigate the terrain.

MU82

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Re: The War in Ukraine
« Reply #67 on: March 29, 2022, 06:38:02 PM »
Goose:

I appreciate the perspective you have brought here based on your decades of experience. I am one of those who does not understand much about China - either its history or its military or its current state. I do read some of what's going on, but most accounts aren't very deep.

If it would be so easy to take Taiwan, and if taking Taiwan would cripple America, why doesn't Xi just do it?

Also, some have referenced that America would have to protect Taiwan militarily. How the hell would we even do that?

This all does sound like the plot of a novel, perhaps one about the start of World War III, and it's freakin' scary.
"We have a severe problem in American life today called the assault on truth." -- Pulitzer Prize winning New Yorker editor David Remnick

MU Fan in Connecticut

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Re: The War in Ukraine
« Reply #68 on: March 29, 2022, 06:42:29 PM »
MU Fan,

 The closest point between Taiwan and China was the biggest smuggling route in the 80's and 90's, I believe China can navigate the terrain.

They're going to smuggle in tens of thousands of troops unnoticed by satellite or humint on the ground?  The US is watching and they will let the world know.

MU Fan in Connecticut

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Re: The War in Ukraine
« Reply #69 on: March 29, 2022, 06:43:35 PM »
Goose:

I appreciate the perspective you have brought here based on your decades of experience. I am one of those who does not understand much about China - either its history or its military or its current state. I do read some of what's going on, but most accounts aren't very deep.

If it would be so easy to take Taiwan, and if taking Taiwan would cripple America, why doesn't Xi just do it?

Also, some have referenced that America would have to protect Taiwan militarily. How the hell would we even do that?

This all does sound like the plot of a novel, perhaps one about the start of World War III, and it's freakin' scary.

See the Tom Clancy Threat Vector novel I referenced.

Jockey

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Re: The War in Ukraine
« Reply #70 on: March 29, 2022, 07:46:32 PM »
Muggsy

There are a lot smarter guys on here on how we won the Cold War, but if we put China into a depression, we would have a very, very, very serious economic crisis. President Xi would likely face very strong internal conflicts within his country at a very large scale. Could he survive it, sure, but at what cost?


Goose,

This is why I don’t think China will actually go through with an attack on Taiwan. While sanctions we would put in place would affect us here at home, the economic effects would be worse over there. China has worked very hard to build their economy for several decades. I don’t think they would risk that progress for a national ‘feel good’ move.

MU Fan in Connecticut

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Re: The War in Ukraine
« Reply #71 on: March 29, 2022, 08:03:47 PM »

If it would be so easy to take Taiwan, and if taking Taiwan would cripple America, why doesn't Xi just do it?

Also, some have referenced that America would have to protect Taiwan militarily. How the hell would we even do that?


The US Navy which still has more naval assets in the area than China on its home turf and that's only part of our navy.

Plus our new group of Super Friends joint security group of USA, India, Japan and Australia and others countries are looking to join.

Missiles - if I read correctly, we launched more in the first two days of Iraq than Russia has in 5 weeks.

China has an oil problem can't import enough and the US Navy would choke out sea supply with the above.

China may have boats in a navy now but where have they deployed or menaced any country since Admiral Zheng He in the 1340's?  (He was Uigar, coincidentally too.). Taking over the uninhabited Spratly's not far from the China coast?

MU82

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Re: The War in Ukraine
« Reply #72 on: March 29, 2022, 10:16:43 PM »
The US Navy which still has more naval assets in the area than China on its home turf and that's only part of our navy.

Plus our new group of Super Friends joint security group of USA, India, Japan and Australia and others countries are looking to join.

Missiles - if I read correctly, we launched more in the first two days of Iraq than Russia has in 5 weeks.

China has an oil problem can't import enough and the US Navy would choke out sea supply with the above.

China may have boats in a navy now but where have they deployed or menaced any country since Admiral Zheng He in the 1340's?  (He was Uigar, coincidentally too.). Taking over the uninhabited Spratly's not far from the China coast?

Thanks for this answer. Hopefully Xi sees all of the above as the big deterrent you believe it is.
"We have a severe problem in American life today called the assault on truth." -- Pulitzer Prize winning New Yorker editor David Remnick

Sultan Sultanberger

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Re: The War in Ukraine
« Reply #73 on: March 30, 2022, 07:51:58 AM »
Goose:

I appreciate the perspective you have brought here based on your decades of experience. I am one of those who does not understand much about China - either its history or its military or its current state. I do read some of what's going on, but most accounts aren't very deep.

If it would be so easy to take Taiwan, and if taking Taiwan would cripple America, why doesn't Xi just do it?


Right.  People who claim that would be easy have no understanding of how difficult it would be to capture AND CONTROL an island nation of 26 million people with rough terrain. 
“True patriotism hates injustice in its own land more than anywhere else.” - Clarence Darrow

Goose

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Re: The War in Ukraine
« Reply #74 on: March 30, 2022, 08:14:34 AM »
82

I would suggest doing some more reading on the topic, and probably would not use Tom Clancy as my starting point. Many experts fear the invasion of Taiwan by China would trigger WWIII. In addition, if interested on the topic, I would do some digging on China's military, and Navy specifically. In addition #2, if you have interest on Sino-US economic implications, Leland Miller and Kyle Bass are two very strong individuals in this field.

« Last Edit: March 30, 2022, 08:30:52 AM by Goose »

 

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