The War in Ukraine

[Goose]

MU Fan

Appreciate your post. I think we can agree that no one really knows what China can or will do. Time will tell. My general opinion is I would never assume something will not happen because it has not happened in the past 70 years. IMO, much like the video jesmu shared, I am sure China will try everything in it's power to overtake Taiwan without using military force and see what happens.

[jesmu84]

China would have the best trained military in the world, yet spends a fraction of what the US spends? Sure seems like we're not getting a good return after a proposed $8 trillion over 10 years.

[muwarrior69]

Hards

I have spent the last 37 years of my life making a living first in Taiwan, then and now China and have expanded to all SE Asia over the past half decade. By NO means do I feel I am an expert on China, Taiwan or any other SE Asia country, but I definitely know that I have a well balanced, firsthand knowledge of the region. I only say this as a backdrop of how I come to my decisions/comments on this topic.

China is very unique and not for the reasons that most pundits use as a basis of their talking points. There are obvious traits they possess, that most everyone will agree on, they are calculating, ruthless, well prepared for any conflict they much choose to enter and very disciplined, but the biggest trait they possess today is President Xi and his power. Now, I am sure you will say you agree on the President Xi comment, but I want add a very basic twist to his significance. I would be willing to bet a nice sum of money that most, educated Americans would struggle to name the last leader of China. President Xi is now know by name and face by virtually every educated American. I believe his rise to power will go down as the biggest power shift in the world in this century.

China, if they invade Taiwan, will not be 100% prepared for victory, but will be 200% prepared for any twist that could their way in this battle, including any USA involvement. If they invade, which I believe they will, it will be the most prepared military operation the world has ever seen. Chinese nationalism has never been higher and a takeover of China will only throw gas on that fire.

Sadly, I believe the Belt and Road initiative is even more dangerous for the US than a possible Taiwan invasion. Their influence in Africa, Central and South America and elsewhere is growing by the day. President Xi looks at Taiwan as a symbolic W for China, the Belt and Road initiative is his crown jewel. Now, I believe the B&R could ultimately backfire on them if they invade Taiwan and have serious economic sanctions handcuff them.

Now to answer your military question, I think it would be short lived battle with very little harm inflicted on China for the reasons noted above. I am sure many on here have spent time in China and it is virtually impossible to not see their might on display. I made my first to Peking in 1985 and have seen this superpower grow over 37 years. You cannot have domestic flights in China without having delays due to China Air Force conducting training in airspace over the airport, their naval capabilities is on full display in and around China and I am guessing they have figured out the technology needed to get the job done.

I love Taiwan and believe I received an MBA on how to do business from the Taiwanese and will always love Taiwan. IMO, I do not think they have a chance to last very long in a battle with China. Two minutes might be a bit quick, but it would not be lengthy with USA military support, and real support.

Why is it so much more expensive to manufacture things here than asia. Can the average south east asian afford the top line iPhone or Galaxy? Are flat panel screens affordable to the average asian as they are to the average American. Do they pay the same price for things as we do here for everyday items. Just wondering why we don't make things here anymore.

[Goose]

jesmu

I find that their military spending is a fraction of ours, but you may well be correct. I have not believed ONE economic report from China in over 25 years, but that is me.


warrior69
That is loaded question, to some degree. Obviously lower labor costs, and more importantly, tremendous financial backing from the government for companies that export.
As for cost of goods to Chinese people, virtually every item we use in USA is more expensive in China. Computers, smart phones, etc. are often cheaper sales price in USA. Every time our staff travels to the USA a ton of money is spent at the Apple store. I will add that the cost of an iphone does not discourage Chinese from buying them.

[🏀]

2222 69th Ave NE

Goose

Nice.

[JWags85]

China would have the best trained military in the world, yet spends a fraction of what the US spends? Sure seems like we're not getting a good return after a proposed $8 trillion over 10 years.

We don't know what they actually spend cause they aren't going to give truthful numbers.  Thats a start.

Why is it so much more expensive to manufacture things here than asia. Can the average south east asian afford the top line iPhone or Galaxy? Are flat panel screens affordable to the average asian as they are to the average American. Do they pay the same price for things as we do here for everyday items. Just wondering why we don't make things here anymore.

Goose mentioned part of it, but I don't think people truly grasp the actual financials of labor cost.  We had a manufacturing company in China that we worked with and they were aggressively scaling up their use of our tech.  We mentioned we had a robotic system add on that would automate a manual process.  It would be roughly $25K.  They declined cause it would be cheaper for them to pay 2-3 people for multiple YEARS to do the manual work of it.

I have customers in India who pay office staff $250-300 a month and, in a business environment where lower level people leave jobs all the time, thats sufficient to keep people happy and staying.  The assembly or lower level unskilled labor, for a lot of the goods that get made there, likely are making less.  And thats in Mumbai adjacent.  You head north to Surat and its cheaper.

You're talking 5+ workers for the cost of even the absolute minimum wage worker in the US.

[Goose]

Wags

Agree to some degree on the labor situation. We work with a lot of factories that have invested a ton of money on automation. Like everywhere in the world, some companies and some follow. Many of our suppliers, especially in automotive space, are very lean people wise in regard to folks on the floor.

As for India, we have an electrical engineer with a decade of multinational experience running our sourcing and her pay is slightly under $1k per month. We are in the process of hiring staff and opening an office in Mexico and the same skillset/experience as our India staff is roughly $4k per month.

[Jockey]

Why is it so much more expensive to manufacture things here than asia. Can the average south east asian afford the top line iPhone or Galaxy? Are flat panel screens affordable to the average asian as they are to the average American. Do they pay the same price for things as we do here for everyday items. Just wondering why we don't make things here anymore.

When I would travel to our plants in Honduras & Costa Rica 6-8 years ago, laborers were making barely over a dollar an hour. Since then, the company closed the plants there and everything is manufactured in Asia now. So that gives you an idea of the labor costs there.

Yes, they paid similar prices there. That's why a majority of the cars on the road were old Datsuns from the 80s.

[Jockey]

How could we possibly know this?
As fluff points up, China hasn't been involved in a serious conflict in 60-70 years, depending how serious you rate their early 60s scrap with India. I doubt a single Chinese military leader was out of his diapers then.

 

I say this because most money allocated for the military is used for the military. Training and discipline matter in Chinese culture.

The Russian military leaders are either oligarchs who are raping the military budget or military & defense leaders who tell Putin what he wants to hear. There are no dissenting voices to make Putin have to think deeply about his decisions. That is why they were so ill prepared despite an overwhelming numbers advantage.

[MuggsyB]

 

I say this because most money allocated for the military is used for the military. Training and discipline matter in Chinese culture.

The Russian military leaders are either oligarchs who are raping the military budget or military & defense leaders who tell Putin what he wants to hear. There are no dissenting voices to make Putin have to think deeply about his decisions. That is why they were so ill prepared despite an overwhelming numbers advantage.

I assume you're correct Jockey but it's a little weird to me that our Intelligence and most former generals, colonels, etc, were so wrong about their capabilities. 

[MU Fan in Connecticut]

Why is it so much more expensive to manufacture things here than asia. Can the average south east asian afford the top line iPhone or Galaxy? Are flat panel screens affordable to the average asian as they are to the average American. Do they pay the same price for things as we do here for everyday items. Just wondering why we don't make things here anymore.

In some twisted way this may answer your question or make it more confusing.

On one of my visits to China circa 2006, the Saturday afternoon activity was the plant manager and two engineers take us to a "giant mall with a big store" where we could shop.  One of the engineers wanted to go because he had a "savings card".  We get there and the attraction was Walmart.  It looked like every other Walmart. I bought a nice package of chopsticks that I still use.

[JWags85]

Wags

Agree to some degree on the labor situation. We work with a lot of factories that have invested a ton of money on automation. Like everywhere in the world, some companies and some follow. Many of our suppliers, especially in automotive space, are very lean people wise in regard to folks on the floor.

As for India, we have an electrical engineer with a decade of multinational experience running our sourcing and her pay is slightly under $1k per month. We are in the process of hiring staff and opening an office in Mexico and the same skillset/experience as our India staff is roughly $4k per month.

Yea I agree. When it comes to China, I think it depends. Larger scale there is definite interest. It’s case by case. 

But India? Not even a question.  If it’s not dirt cheap they aren’t interested.  Our strategic partner from Belgium shares our Indian operation.  They staff a bunch of programmers.  They hire 5-6 for the cost of what they would have 1 in the home office in Antwerp.  The headaches and lower production is easily offset by cost.

So that and all the other examples are why we don’t produce domestically.  Unless we can fully automate and DRASTICALLY cut labor costs for certain processes, the financials just don’t work.

[NCMUFan]

IBTL.  You know it is coming.

[pbiflyer]

I assume you're correct Jockey but it's a little weird to me that our Intelligence and most former generals, colonels, etc, were so wrong about their capabilities.

Yeah, it’s surprising that the people who have jobs protecting us would over play the threat, requiring them to build up their empire.
And I am sure the weapon manufacturing companies don’t do that either.

[Hards Alumni]

I assume you're correct Jockey but it's a little weird to me that our Intelligence and most former generals, colonels, etc, were so wrong about their capabilities.

Strange thing to think considering how wrong they seem to be all the time.

Unless they knew all along but don't want the world to think they're as knowledgeable as they are.  AKA it was all a show.

The guys that specialize in spying, intel, and disinformation should probably not ever be trusted to give an honest answer to the general public.

[Hards Alumni]

Yea I agree. When it comes to China, I think it depends. Larger scale there is definite interest. It’s case by case. 

But India? Not even a question.  If it’s not dirt cheap they aren’t interested.  Our strategic partner from Belgium shares our Indian operation.  They staff a bunch of programmers.  They hire 5-6 for the cost of what they would have 1 in the home office in Antwerp.  The headaches and lower production is easily offset by cost.

So that and all the other examples are why we don’t produce domestically.  Unless we can fully automate and DRASTICALLY cut labor costs for certain processes, the financials just don’t work.

I've also heard and read that the 'please the boss' culture in India is terrible.  As in, they'll straight up just tell you what you want to hear despite it being an obvious lie.

[MU Fan in Connecticut]

I deal with customers in India all the time.  They listen to nothing.  They claim no knowledge of the international container shortage and shipping delays.  Repeat the same thing day after day and make requests for ridiculousness amounts of product even after you've told them for 5 straight days that it will take 3 weeks to make what they want.  We love that one guy involved the US based head of metal sourcing to pressure us and after we explaining everything to him, we heard from someone else at our customer that the US guy read India the riot act.

We were yelling at each other internally one day then just stopped and said, "WTF are we all getting bent over Anand for?" 

[MU Fan in Connecticut]

What a day of Ukraine news.

Seven busses of Russians sent to Belarus with radiation poisoning from Chornobyl.
https://twitter.com/MrKovalenko/status/1509278005469847574

Sounds like the Finns & Swedes are joining NATO.  The Swedes are flipping out mad that Russian jets flew over Swedish airspace with nukes on the Russian planes this month.
https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1509300030406078465

[lawdog77]

Can we go back to calling Taiwan,  Formosa?

[rocky_warrior]

The guys that specialize in spying, intel, and disinformation should probably not ever be trusted to give an honest answer to the general public.

Perhaps, but those guys also never answer or talk to the general public about their information.  I think the ones you're referring to are "former" or "retired".

[MUeng]

Strange thing to think considering how wrong they seem to be all the time.

Unless they knew all along but don't want the world to think they're as knowledgeable as they are.  AKA it was all a show.

The guys that specialize in spying, intel, and disinformation should probably not ever be trusted to give an honest answer to the general public.

not sure I'd call it a show but it's deception, and it works. In this case, the truth about Russia's true ability was known but the narrative of a vaunted force in the public domain gave putin confidence and complacency. Now we're actually seeing how his force operates and we haven't had to intervene militarily because they're so undertrained. Strikes me as all by design.

[MU Fan in Connecticut]

I saw this article referenced on another site.
Looks like it's written by the USAF so you can see a bias, however it has actual specific numbers and data comparing US & China in multiple categories why if I was China I would worry about attacking Taiwan.   

Why China Cannot Challenge the US Military Primacy
Published Dec. 13, 2021
By Mangesh Sawant
Journal of Indo-Pacific Affairs, Air University Press -- 
https://www.airuniversity.af.edu/JIPA/Display/Article/2870650/why-china-cannot-challenge-the-us-military-primacy/

[Hards Alumni]

not sure I'd call it a show but it's deception, and it works. In this case, the truth about Russia's true ability was known but the narrative of a vaunted force in the public domain gave putin confidence and complacency. Now we're actually seeing how his force operates and we haven't had to intervene militarily because they're so undertrained. Strikes me as all by design.

Yeah, that's sort of what I was getting at.

[jficke13]

What a day of Ukraine news.

Seven busses of Russians sent to Belarus with radiation poisoning from Chornobyl.
https://twitter.com/MrKovalenko/status/1509278005469847574

Sounds like the Finns & Swedes are joining NATO.  The Swedes are flipping out mad that Russian jets flew over Swedish airspace with nukes on the Russian planes this month.
https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1509300030406078465

I would very skeptical of this report.

[jesmu84]

I assume you're correct Jockey but it's a little weird to me that our Intelligence and most former generals, colonels, etc, were so wrong about their capabilities.

When was the last time the military or intelligence groups gave accurate information to the public? These folks have agendas influencing their public information or are apparently just ignorant.