The War in Ukraine

[MU82]

82

I would suggest doing some more reading on the topic, and probably would not use Tom Clancy as my starting point. Many experts fear the invasion of Taiwan by China would trigger WWIII. In addition, if interested on the topic, I would do some digging on China's military, and Navy specifically. In addition #2, if you have interest on Sino-US economic implications, Leland Miller and Kyle Bass are two very strong individuals in this field.

Thanks for the suggestions. I was interested in your take, but I appreciate the suggestions.

Right.  People who claim that would be easy have no understanding of how difficult it would be to capture AND CONTROL an island nation of 26 million people with rough terrain. 

I don't know whether it would be easy or difficult because, as I said, I know little about the situation. I hope you're right that it would be so difficult; maybe that means China would be unlikely to ever try.

[muwarrior69]

MU Fan

The economic blowback is definitely something China would weigh carefully, but at some point, I believe they go all in regardless of how it affects them economically. That is why the Belt and Road initiative is so big, IMO. They are buying allies, many with vast natural resources and they are doing so when many Americans having no knowledge of it. I believe the misunderstanding of China by the West might be their biggest asset. I try and read or watch as much as I can on China every day because I need to for work and because I believe it is something we all should be educated on.

One thing on the economy, I 100% believe that severe economic sanctions on China would hurt the West far more than China in the short run. We cannot handle the supply chain issues now, what do we do if cut them off? Reshoring on a mass scale is apipedream, IMO and China fully knows this and knows our weakness. Why not hit Taiwan when it hurt us most?

Are you saying the US would let China take Taiwan without a fight? Are you are saying the US military is not capable of defending Taiwan with conventional weapons? Are you saying China would use Nuclear weapons to take Taiwan? To me the fall of Taiwan is an existential threat to the security of the US, but then again our corporations would probably side with China.

[The Hippie Satan of Hyperbole]

Thanks for the suggestions. I was interested in your take, but I appreciate the suggestions.

I don't know whether it would be easy or difficult because, as I said, I know little about the situation. I hope you're right that it would be so difficult; maybe that means China would be unlikely to ever try.

Which is probably the reason it hasn't been done for the last 60 years.  Even though there is a new, more nationalist regime in power, that doesn't make it easier.  And the world's reaction to Russia likely gives them pause as well.

[ChitownSpaceForRent]

Which is probably the reason it hasn't been done for the last 60 years.  Even though there is a new, more nationalist regime in power, that doesn't make it easier.  And the world's reaction to Russia likely gives them pause as well.

I think your last statement is an important one here.

I don’t think Putin expected such a unified front, not only from the west, but even places in his own back yard like Romania, Slovakia, etc.

Not that Putin really gives a crap, he’ll let his people starve so long as he gets his way, but it may certainly give other countries pause.

[Goose]

warrior69

The USA has always made it very clear that we would help defend Taiwan, as a matter of fact the US has been helping train the Taiwanese over the past year or so. My belief they are doing this because they do not think a China invasion is a real possibility. I think the USA would have no choice but to help defend Taiwan, hence many experts believing that would be the start of WWIII.

I am somewhat surprised that some on here appear to be unaware of a Taiwan invasion by China is a major global fear. Seriously, I thought this was a widely known possibility.

FYI--that was just an editorial, not meant to address your question. It has been pointed out that I answer posts incorrectly and did not want to cause any extra posts needed to be added pointing out by mistakes.

[The Hippie Satan of Hyperbole]

I am somewhat surprised that some on here appear to be unaware of a Taiwan invasion by China is a major global fear.

Who is unaware of this?

[TSmith34, Inc.]

From the NYT:

Russia appears to be focusing more on eastern Ukraine. That’s both good and bad for Ukraine’s military.

"Ukrainian civilians have shown resilience amid terrible suffering. Its military has kept Russia from taking over Kyiv and even regained some ground in the northeast. And the Russian military has suffered heavy losses, partly because of an overly ambitious strategy — evidently reflecting Putin’s wishes more than military reality — that left its forces stretched thin and vulnerable to counterattacks.

Russia’s early failures explain its new willingness to hold peace negotiations and its promised pullback from Kyiv. U.S. officials understandably expressed skepticism yesterday about whether Putin is genuinely open to ending the war. But Russia really does appear to have narrowed its goals, in response to its battlefield struggles. That’s good news for Ukraine.

At the same time, Russia’s new strategy creates a potential challenge: Increasingly, Russia appears to be concentrating its effort in fewer areas — particularly the Donbas region, in eastern Ukraine.

“We’ve seen a major shift toward one specific front in this war,” Michael Kofman of the Russia studies program at CNA told me. “For Russia, it’s much more rational.”

Focusing on Donbas has multiple advantages for Russia. In recent weeks, it has already made progress in taking over territory there. It can hold that territory without the long, exposed supply lines that Ukraine has successfully attacked elsewhere. A battle over Donbas also gives Russia an opportunity to encircle and destroy a large chunk of Ukraine’s military. More than a third of all Ukrainian troops may be in the region, fighting both the separatists and the Russian military.

Russia appears to be on the verge of being able to create such a pincer around these Ukrainian troops, coming from both the east and the south. Experts refer to this Russian progress as a “land bridge” from Crimea to the Donbas.

The city of Mariupol, in southern Donbas, is a part of this story. Putin and his military planners have attacked Mariupol so brutally because it is the largest city in the potential land bridge that they do not yet control. It also has a major port.

Either way, Putin may try to use the cease-fire negotiations as a way to lock in the territory Russia now controls or soon may, including the land bridge. That prospect worries some experts who want to see Putin defeated. “We’re at the next moment of significant danger around this conflict,” Frederick Kagan, a military expert at the American Enterprise Institute, told me.

If the West pressures Ukraine to accept a cease-fire that leaves the land bridge intact, Ukraine would be a broken country, Kagan argues. It would be cut off from a large number of its citizens and from economically important coal and natural gas resources in the east. Many parts of central Ukraine would be vulnerable to Russian attacks and disruption.

“If we allow the Russians under the facade of a cease-fire to control that line, that’s exactly what I’m worried about,” Kagan added.

The war has gone surprisingly well for Ukraine so far, but it still faces major risks. “I think a lot of folks in the West are more starry-eyed than Ukrainians are,” Kofman said. “I’m skeptical that either side is ready for peace, because both sides in this war still have opportunities in the battlefield.”

[Goose]

fluff

I guess reading some posts that have said it has not happened for a reason and will not happen made me believe that is not a concern to some on here. I guess just me being a clown again.

[The Hippie Satan of Hyperbole]

fluff

I guess reading some posts that have said it has not happened for a reason and will not happen made me believe that is not a concern to some on here. I guess just me being a clown again.

I never claimed it wasn't a "major global fear."  I just don't think its going to happen.  People can be afraid or concerned about a bunch of things that don't end up happening.  That doesn't mean you don't think about or plan for them in case they do.

[JWags85]

Good discussion in here, and many valid points on both sides.  I will just say, yet again, the direct comparisons of Russia and China aren't too sound.  From an internal nationalism perspective, to a governmental strategy and competency perspective, to a military perspective.  Which is a big part of what makes China so scary.

[Goose]

fluff


For the record, I have no idea if or when China will invade Taiwan but believe that is more possible than not. As for your claims on how difficult that conflict could be for China, I could not disagree more. China would be the most prepared military in the history of the world for that conflict and only US interference would complicate the conflict.

As for your belief it will not happen, I hope you are right.

Wags
Spot on post! I said it yesterday, but I believe China is the misunderstood place on the planet and NO ONE aside from the CCP is an expert on what their capabilities are today and what they will be in the future. For me, I would never underestimate what they are capable of and would double down any intel we have on them.

[forgetful]

MU Fan

The economic blowback is definitely something China would weigh carefully, but at some point, I believe they go all in regardless of how it affects them economically. That is why the Belt and Road initiative is so big, IMO. They are buying allies, many with vast natural resources and they are doing so when many Americans having no knowledge of it. I believe the misunderstanding of China by the West might be their biggest asset. I try and read or watch as much as I can on China every day because I need to for work and because I believe it is something we all should be educated on.

One thing on the economy, I 100% believe that severe economic sanctions on China would hurt the West far more than China in the short run. We cannot handle the supply chain issues now, what do we do if cut them off? Reshoring on a mass scale is apipedream, IMO and China fully knows this and knows our weakness. Why not hit Taiwan when it hurt us most?

In all honesty, the above is why the TPP was strategically important, it would solidify economic connections in the region to the west. Us cancelling the TPP left an economic power vacuum that will strengthen Chinas economic power/connections.

[JWags85]

In all honesty, the above is why the TPP was strategically important, it would solidify economic connections in the region to the west. Us cancelling the TPP left an economic power vacuum that will strengthen Chinas economic power/connections.

I don't disagree that it may not have been a great idea to leave the TPP, however in the long run I don't think it matters.  Unless companies/countries were ready to take on the short to medium term pain of leaving China/manufacturing in China, it wouldn't matter.  If you have 90% of your manufacturing in China and move 20-25% to Vietnam or Malaysia or Mexico...you're still pouring plenty of fuel into China

[jesmu84]

One china/Taiwan military analysis:

https://youtu.be/VNZ0so0LCoM

[Goose]

Interesting video. I was in Taipei the day of that election in 1995 and one of the highlights in my time working in Asia.

[rocky_warrior]

Guess we should retitle the thread "The future war in Taiwan"

[Pakuni]

82

There are very, very few countries that actually acknowledge Taiwan as its own country. They have allies, but we are top of the list. Almost all of China experts felt that the Russia-Ukraine situation could be provide some cover for China if they invaded Taiwan. 99.9999% of the people I follow believe it is when, not if, China invades and takes over Taiwan. For the record, I believe that would be a two minute fight, unless the USA helped Taiwan.

Could you explain how China would conduct a successful amphibious assault on an extraordinarily well-defended and mountainous island in two minutes? Even assuming hyperbole on your part, why do you think it would be an easy conquest?

[Goose]

Pakuni

1:18am Domestic disturbance at 2222 69th Ave NE, suspect fled on foot heading SW

Oh, sorry wrong thread.

Yes, hyperbole in my statement on the time needed for China to take over Taiwan. As I have said in previous posts, if China does attempt to take over Taiwan, I believe they would be best trained military the world has ever seen and a gameplan to match its force. Hopefully it never happens.

[Pakuni]

Pakuni

1:18am Domestic disturbance at 2222 69th Ave NE, suspect fled on foot heading SW

That's way too close to the Northern Michigan campus for my liking.

[Jockey]

I never claimed it wasn't a "major global fear."  I just don't think its going to happen.  People can be afraid or concerned about a bunch of things that don't end up happening.  That doesn't mean you don't think about or plan for them in case they do.

I agree with this. I understand the concern, but I think (at least for now) that the Chinese leadership is too pragmatic to risk the effects of an attack. Their economy isn't going to be put at risk. The actions of our last president to alienate old allies and partners has led to a much, much greater Chinese influence in the world - especially in Africa. While emotion says to take Taiwan, reality says to grow their economic influence in the world. They do not give in to tantrums or delusions of grandeur like Putin and Trump.

[Jockey]

Pakuni


Yes, hyperbole in my statement on the time needed for China to take over Taiwan. As I have said in previous posts, if China does attempt to take over Taiwan, I believe they would be best trained military the world has ever seen and a gameplan to match its force. Hopefully it never happens.

Yes. Chinese military leaders are way, way more competent than Russian counterparts.

[The Hippie Satan of Hyperbole]

Yes, hyperbole in my statement on the time needed for China to take over Taiwan. As I have said in previous posts, if China does attempt to take over Taiwan, I believe they would be best trained military the world has ever seen and a gameplan to match its force. Hopefully it never happens.

Why do you believe the bolded?  Outside of some border skirmishes they really haven't been all that involved in any military conflicts recently, much less something of the size, coordination and planning that we are talking about here.

[MU Fan in Connecticut]

In all honesty, the above is why the TPP was strategically important, it would solidify economic connections in the region to the west. Us cancelling the TPP left an economic power vacuum that will strengthen Chinas economic power/connections.

I totally agree.

[MU Fan in Connecticut]

Why do you believe the bolded?  Outside of some border skirmishes they really haven't been all that involved in any military conflicts recently, much less something of the size, coordination and planning that we are talking about here.

Goose, I do appreciate your insight on China and Taiwan.  You've spent way way more time in China and dealing with China then I have and you know them better.
It is a major world concern.  An invasion is very possible, but less probable for a myriad of reasons.
My engineering experience with Chinese manufacturing is they lack creativity, and they are waiting to be told what to do and they throw a lot of bodies to look at something or an issue (because they can).  This can be based on outdated experience also.

I don't doubt the Chinese would be well prepared, and I don't doubt they will have good military technology.  They certainly will.

Fluff just reiterated pretty much what I have been saying, their main problem is that there is nothing in the last 70 years that says there military can do big or anything on this scale.  That means something.  Having the toys is one thing, but can you use them is another.  NCO's are the backbone of every army, and even if the Chinese have them (as Russia has none which is one of their ground issues), they don't have military battle experience and how wil that translate on the field.
I read several times over the last few weeks that American pilots have 3-4 times the flight hours than the rest of the militaries in the world and it translates into, well,  better pilots. 
OK, I'm done.

[Pakuni]

Yes. Chinese military leaders are way, way more competent than Russian counterparts.

How could we possibly know this?
As fluff points up, China hasn't been involved in a serious conflict in 60-70 years, depending how serious you rate their early 60s scrap with India. I doubt a single Chinese military leader was out of his diapers then.