Big East Polls, NET Rankings and Team Sheets

[MU82]

So Marquette starts the month with a NET of 83 after the Creighton loss and finishes at 28.

A NET gain of 55 spots. Unbelievable!

Exactly as I predicted!

(Or something like that.)

[muwarrior69]

Exactly as I predicted!

(Or something like that.)

The Nostradamus of Scoop.

[lawdog77]

Sending up the bat signal for the bean counters.

It's been mentioned that Iowa's NET seems to disregard Q1, and that their margin of victory is what puts them so high. Is that the same thing for Houston, since they have as many q1 wins as my son's 4th grade basketball team?

Oh and UNC and Washington St seem high.

[Herman Cain]

Big East NET rankings as of games of January 31, 2022
New Old
4   5   Villanova   
16   16   UConn   
20   20   Xavier   
28   28   Marquette   
30   30   Providence   
43   42   Seton Hall   
73   73   Creighton   
92   91   St. John's
109   108   DePaul   
132   132   Butler   
196   199   Georgetown   
February 1 Team Sheets. Marquette is 28
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2022/net-teamsheets

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Sending up the bat signal for the bean counters.

It's been mentioned that Iowa's NET seems to disregard Q1, and that their margin of victory is what puts them so high. Is that the same thing for Houston, since they have as many q1 wins as my son's 4th grade basketball team?

Oh and UNC and Washington St seem high.

Correct. Houston has lost both of their Q1 games (which are both Q1A games) by a combined margin of 3. Meanwhile they have three Q2A wins by an average margin of 18. They have also won 5/7 of their Q3 games by double digits with 4/5 being by 17 or more. Their average margin of victory in their 7 Q4 games is  35.7, which includes beating #228 Bryant by 67.

Essentially, Houston has kept it close in their only two meaningful games and obliterated everyone else they played. Makes for a great NET score but they are probably a little overvalued.

North Carolina, more of the same. They are 0-6 in Q1 games including some really bad blowouts. But they are 15-0 in Q2/Q3/Q4 and they won 14/15 by double digits.

Washington State is carried by by 5 Q3 wins that they won by at least 17 points and a 16 point road win over Utah. Blowing out meh but not bad teams can cover a lot of flaws....like their two Q3 losses and Q4 loss to #216 Eastern Washington. Still eyeballing their resume, they still seem a little high.

I can't see Washington State making the tourney without a lot better performance going forward. North Carolina shouldn't with 0 Q1 wins but they may get in due to soft bubble and name recognition. Houston will deservingly get a high seed but I think it will be in the 3/4 range, not 1/2.

[brewcity77]

Just updated my own S-Curve, a few thoughts on that...


• I moved Houston up to the 3-line because their metrics are simply so good. Historically, especially when it comes to the Top-16 Reveal, the Selection Committee rewards teams that are in the top-16 of NET (usually no more than two outliers). Houston has the win profile of a team on the 7 line, but even their resume based metrics are both top-15, and they're top-5 everywhere else. They won't be a 1 and I can't see a 2 without any Q1 wins, but they'll be up there.
  
• For North Carolina, I have them in with some comfort because they have nothing bad. Once you get down to the end of the bubble, everyone has pretty bad blemishes.
  
• Washington State was the highest NET team that I didn't really consider. One look at their resume and it's clear it's just beating up bad teams and nothing of quality.
  
• One more note, there's a lot of talk about an 8-bid Big 12. I have 8 now, but I don't see it lasting. Honestly, 6 is more likely than 8 (though I'd guess 7 make it). The problem is teams are going to lose games, and no matter how good the wins, if you only have 16-17 wins, you aren't getting in. Oklahoma will be an underdog in 7 of their remaining 9 games and likely need to go at 6-3 to feel comfortable. West Virginia is an underdog in 9 of 10 and needs to go at least 5-5 to feel comfortable. 8 bids is unlikely.

[TallTitan34]

Just updated my own S-Curve, a few thoughts on that...


• I moved Houston up to the 3-line because their metrics are simply so good. Historically, especially when it comes to the Top-16 Reveal, the Selection Committee rewards teams that are in the top-16 of NET (usually no more than two outliers). Houston has the win profile of a team on the 7 line, but even their resume based metrics are both top-15, and they're top-5 everywhere else. They won't be a 1 and I can't see a 2 without any Q1 wins, but they'll be up there.
  
• For North Carolina, I have them in with some comfort because they have nothing bad. Once you get down to the end of the bubble, everyone has pretty bad blemishes.
  
• Washington State was the highest NET team that I didn't really consider. One look at their resume and it's clear it's just beating up bad teams and nothing of quality.
  
• One more note, there's a lot of talk about an 8-bid Big 12. I have 8 now, but I don't see it lasting. Honestly, 6 is more likely than 8 (though I'd guess 7 make it). The problem is teams are going to lose games, and no matter how good the wins, if you only have 16-17 wins, you aren't getting in. Oklahoma will be an underdog in 7 of their remaining 9 games and likely need to go at 6-3 to feel comfortable. West Virginia is an underdog in 9 of 10 and needs to go at least 5-5 to feel comfortable. 8 bids is unlikely.

Where do you have Iowa brew? 

[brewcity77]

Where do you have Iowa brew?

11-seed, Last Four byes. Not enough substance at the top of the resume, though their NET is high enough that they should feel pretty secure. They would've stuck on the 10 line, maybe even moved up to a 9 if not for the Penn State loss last night. Saw that and cringed a little.

[TallTitan34]

11-seed, Last Four byes. Not enough substance at the top of the resume, though their NET is high enough that they should feel pretty secure. They would've stuck on the 10 line, maybe even moved up to a 9 if not for the Penn State loss last night. Saw that and cringed a little.

Thanks!

Sorry, I just noticed your post here: https://www.crackedsidewalks.com/2022/02/non-con-check-in.html?m=1

[TallTitan34]

Up to 27 in NET.

https://www.ncaa.com/rankings/basketball-men/d1/ncaa-mens-basketball-net-rankings

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Thank you Ole Miss for winning and Iowa State for losing.

Bonnies were getting blown out at home by Davidson but they went on a run at the end to make it a respectable 5 point loss. They still dropped back to Q3 land. I don't know what happened to that team, I've watched them a couple of times since Charleston and they look nothing like the team we played.

[The Sultan]

Marquette was their Super Bowl.

[TallTitan34]

I don't know what happened to that team,

See attached minutes per game.  I'm guessing they are all gassed.

[Juan Anderson's Mixtape]

Marquette was their Super Bowl.

Hang a banner!

[PGsHeroes32]

Kstate needs to win tonight

[Herman Cain]

Big East NET rankings as of games of February 1, 2022
New Old
5   4   Villanova   
17   16   UConn   
18   20   Xavier
27   28   Marquette   
29   30   Providence   
41   43   Seton Hall   
65   73   Creighton   
96   92   St. John's
110   109   DePaul   
132   132   Butler   
203   196   Georgetown
February 2 Team Sheets . Marquette is 27
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2020/net-nitty-team

[MU Fan in Connecticut]

Thank you Ole Miss for winning and Iowa State for losing.

Bonnies were getting blown out at home by Davidson but they went on a run at the end to make it a respectable 5 point loss. They still dropped back to Q3 land. I don't know what happened to that team, I've watched them a couple of times since Charleston and they look nothing like the team we played.

Where is SBU19?

[Dr. Blackheart]

Thank you Ole Miss for winning and Iowa State for losing.

Bonnies were getting blown out at home by Davidson but they went on a run at the end to make it a respectable 5 point loss. They still dropped back to Q3 land. I don't know what happened to that team, I've watched them a couple of times since Charleston and they look nothing like the team we played.

Too bad we didn't get Boise in Charleston.

[Newsdreams]

See attached minutes per game.  I'm guessing they are all gassed.

Woj excuse

[TallTitan34]

Woj excuse

Wojo never played 4 guys 38 minutes a game.

[TSmith34, Inc.]

What does IL drubbing Wisco do to MU's net?

[PGsHeroes32]

What does IL drubbing Wisco do to MU's net?

We played both so nothing

[Juan Anderson's Mixtape]

What does IL drubbing Wisco do to MU's net?

Probably nothing since we played them both once. But it will help MU's resume since Illinois will improve their NET.

[The Sultan]

Nm

[MU82]

What does IL drubbing Wisco do to MU's net?

I enjoyed seeing Madison lose.