More conference realignment talk

[GoldenWarrior11]

Expansion to the tournament was always inevitable, no matter what fans' or analysts' opinions on the matter.  The fact is that there is more money to be made for the power conferences, and also highlights what an insanely undervalued contract the NCAAT is. 

An additional play-in site will be needed, and I personally would love to see it in Omaha.  It's centrally located and has a great college basketball fan base (not unlike Dayton).  If not Omaha, I think Louisville would be another great site. 

An expanded tournament this past year means that St. John's, Providence and Seton Hall are much more likely to get in, and - in a normal year - we might see eight or more bids from the Big East, which ultimately means more money for Marquette. 

[The Sultan]

They mentioned the possibility of another site being out West to help with logistics. I wonder if Utah or Albuquerque may be considered since both have nice on-campus arenas and great fan-bases as well.

[cheebs09]

I would think Vegas would be on the short list too.

[Billy Hoyle]

Villanova would no more turn football FBS as would Georgetown and Butler.

This. The biggest issue is that Nova can't expand its current stadium much beyond the 12,500 it currently seats for a multitude of reasons. Also, the Big East lobbied them to move up back before the breakup (after Nova won the FCS title) in an effort to "save" the old BE and they indicated no interest in doing so.

[brewcity77]

They mentioned the possibility of another site being out West to help with logistics. I wonder if Utah or Albuquerque may be considered since both have nice on-campus arenas and great fan-bases as well.

Omaha may not be far enough west, but I think that would be ideal. Rabid basketball fanbase that would fill up the arena but is still centrally enough located for anyone in the country.

[WhiteTrash]

Omaha may not be far enough west, but I think that would be ideal. Rabid basketball fanbase that would fill up the arena but is still centrally enough located for anyone in the country.

Agreed but I think Omaha is happy in the regional rotation. Better & more important games.

[JakeBarnes]

https://x.com/GSwaim/status/1816966341544305002?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1816966341544305002%7Ctwgr%5E4fb97868b38197afe68fc7e0a3fc78e5685d7e0b%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.sportskeeda.com%2Fcollege-football%2Fnews-cfb-insider-predicts-acc-teams-join-big-east-expansion-10-schools-likely-find-spots-big-ten-sec-big-12-expansion

Speculation and whatnot

[The Sultan]

I have no idea who Greg Swaim is, but I think a lot of what he presents as absolutes (The Big Ten won't take non-AAU members, or the SEC won't take a school from the same state) are way more flexible than he thinks.

[Uncle Rico]

I have no idea who Greg Swaim is, but I think a lot of what he presents as absolutes (The Big Ten won't take non-AAU members, or the SEC won't take a school from the same state) are way more flexible than he thinks.

He's posted a lot about conference realignment.  Not sure his hit or miss mark.  A lot of this speculation feels like some common sense and some wild guesses

The Big Ten will definitely use the AAU thing to bolster its dismantling of the ACC should it come and for its own ego.  Carolina and Virginia are the golden eggs to be battled over, imo.  FSU and Clemson are sexier from a football standpoint but from a market standpoint, not so much

SEC really doesn't have to do anything, imo.  Nor does the Big Ten but the Big Ten definitely has an inferiority complex to the SEC and boxing them in and entering their territory will be appealing

[The Sultan]

He's posted a lot about conference realignment.  Not sure his hit or miss mark.  A lot of this speculation feels like some common sense and some wild guesses

The Big Ten will definitely use the AAU thing to bolster its dismantling of the ACC should it come and for its own ego.  Carolina and Virginia are the golden eggs to be battled over, imo.  FSU and Clemson are sexier from a football standpoint but from a market standpoint, not so much

SEC really doesn't have to do anything, imo.  Nor does the Big Ten but the Big Ten definitely has an inferiority complex to the SEC and boxing them in and entering their territory will be appealing

I don't disagree, but I think if either the SEC or the Big 10 thought that Florida State was no doubt great addition, that they wouldn't let the barriers mentioned to get too much in their way.

I mean the SEC just added Texas. The Big Ten would have taken Notre Dame long before they joined the AAU just last year.

[Uncle Rico]

I don't disagree, but I think if either the SEC or the Big 10 thought that Florida State was no doubt great addition, that they wouldn't let the barriers mentioned to get too much in their way.

I mean the SEC just added Texas. The Big Ten would have taken Notre Dame long before they joined the AAU just last year.

I'm not fully convinced the Big Ten wouldn't rather have Miami

[The Sultan]

I'm not fully convinced the Big Ten wouldn't rather have Miami

Of Ohio?

[Uncle Rico]

Of Ohio?

The U, baby. 

[MU Fan in Connecticut]

The Boneyard likes to share Greg Swaim tweets, but I don't get the impression they are very accurate per UConn posters.

[WhiteTrash]

The Boneyard likes to share Greg Swaim tweets, but I don't get the impression they are very accurate per UConn posters.

I don't know anything about Swaim, but if he or anyone predicted 18 months ago that the Pac 12 would be history, I would have thought they were crazy. But, big picture observations that the B10 and SEC are golden, the Big12 has done as well as could be expected and the ACC is in trouble, IMO, are fair.

[The Sultan]

I don't know anything about Swaim, but if he or anyone predicted 18 months ago that the Pac 12 would be history, I would have thought they were crazy. But, big picture observations that the B10 and SEC are golden, the Big12 has done as well as could be expected and the ACC is in trouble, IMO, are fair.

USC and UCLA announced they were leaving over two years ago. It was obvious then that the Pac 12 wouldn't be around for long - especially when Oregon and Washington said "hell no" to a grant of right deal.

[WhiteTrash]

USC and UCLA announced they were leaving over two years ago. It was obvious then that the Pac 12 wouldn't be around for long - especially when Oregon and Washington said "hell no" to a grant of right deal.

Well after USC and UCLA announced there was full support by remaining members to continue and they began the process of vetting new schools. After the first round of bids for the TV rights came in, CU fell out and the dominos began to fall. I may be off by a few months, but continuing the Pac12 was very real to the point where SDSU announced they were leaving the MWC but within like 60 days the reality of the TV deal hit and then, bye bye Pac12.

The larger point is some of these crazy rumors have been just crazy but some have become reality. 

[GoldenWarrior11]

I struggle to see the B1G and SEC growing beyond 20 teams each, simply because the last "whale" left out there is ND, and they aren't joining a conference in our lifetimes.  If either conference acquired ND, then they will have "won" realignment; there's simply no other moves on the table to make.  The most impactful addition(s) thus far IMO, was the SEC's add of Texas/Oklahoma.  USC/UCLA were huge for the B1G, but no other move previously made compares to them.  From that notion, looking at the other ACC options:

FSU, UNC and ND, IMO, are the only programs that can probably add value the same way UT/OU/USC/UCLA did for both leagues.  Clemson might, but I think at worst they would be an (at present) equal share member.  No other ACC program can increase the payouts.  Could other ACC programs be brought along for political reasons and/or balance?  Sure, but there is a limited number of seats. 

My prediction would be:
B1G: Florida State and Miami (this gets Fox into Florida and the South; adds two elite football brands; both carry strong viewership; Miami is already AAU and FSU will eventually get it as well). 
SEC: North Carolina, Clemson, Duke and Virginia (UNC is the big target with Clemson as a more-than-adequate #2; UNC successfully brings along Duke, who elevates SEC basketball with UNC - and the annual matchups with Kentucky drive value up by themselves - along with Virginia, into another new state with strong academics and strong basketball). 
B12: Virginia Tech, Louisville, NC State and Georgia Tech (Moving beyond 20 dilutes the payouts, and ESPN and FOX aren't going to be spending more than they currently are for more teams to be included).

[MU82]

The Big 106 has been courting UNC and Virginia since it was only the Big 11. I wouldn't assume they'll stop and let the SEC have those schools.

[The Sultan]

I can't see any circumstance where the SEC would take on Duke. And I also think Fox is already in Florida - every Big Ten school outside of the ones out west already has huge alumni bases there.

Anyway, I actually think the ACC will survive but add schools from the AAC...and maybe even UConn. 

[WhiteTrash]

I can't see any circumstance where the SEC would take on Duke. And I also think Fox is already in Florida - every Big Ten school outside of the ones out west already has huge alumni bases there.

Anyway, I actually think the ACC will survive but add schools from the AAC...and maybe even UConn.

Agreed, the quality of Duke football paired with the strong desire of the SEC not to have multiple teams in a state makes them a close to zero shot of being in the SEC. I'd guess the SEC would target NCST if they could not get UNC.

I also agree the ACC will survive. Too many schools will be leftover to just fade away, but it will be those who don't get the Big10, SEC, Big12 invites along with new additions. SMU, Cal and Stanford may have jumped out of the cauldron and into the fire.   

[WarriorDoc]

Is there a scenario where the ACC becomes so diluted that TV money isn't enough to sustain certain schools football programs?  And there's little to no hope for getting into one of the better conferences.

I'm thinking schools like Wake Forest or Boston College.  Small, private schools that don't have a big following.

As much as Boston College and Wake Forest haven't been great recently, they've historically been very good.  Would love to see them join the Big East.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Is there a scenario where the ACC becomes so diluted that TV money isn't enough to sustain certain schools football programs?

Yes. I believe the ACC will be a glorified mid major with the tv contract to match within the next 13 years

[warriorchick]

Why would the play-in site always have to be the same place every year?

It's not the case for any other phase of the tournament.

[brewcity77]

Why would the play-in site always have to be the same place every year?

It's not the case for any other phase of the tournament.

Probably easier logistically. They have 2 days to get the teams from selection to the location, so having one static location likely makes that easier. You have more flexibility with the rotating locations because there are 4-5 days to prep travel. At least that's my guess.