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[Pakuni]

Larry Schweikart
@LarrySchweikart

Not sure where this Trumpster is getting his numbers, but they're wrong.
Also, he isn't taking into account independent voters. It may shock you to learn that not everyone heading to the polls identifies as a Republican or Democrat.

[muguru]

As shady as Charlie Kirk?

Probably not quite as shady as Joe Biden as the laptop data has told us. But I digress.

[jesmu84]

This thread was going pretty well...

[muguru]

Not sure where this Trumpster is getting his numbers, but they're wrong.
Also, he isn't taking into account independent voters. It may shock you to learn that not everyone heading to the polls identifies as a Republican or Democrat.

I mean most people here watch this network and even they talk about it. I also provided al ink that he is pulling the #'s from. He has someone on the ground in Florida as well. I mean they do have party registration in Flroida, so it's not just estimates like it would be in a lot of places.

https://twitter.com/robbystarbuck/status/1322191016816947212?s=20

[shoothoops]

Yep, and of course, with different voting rules per state, means things will swing different ways. Example, Pennsylvania votes will likely be more for DT early and more for JB later.

I mentioned before that one conservative estimate had voter turnout this year at 66%. By comparison, 2008 higher election turnout had 62% voter turnout. We'll see. Maximizing voter turnout with ease of voting needs to be an improved priority moving forward.

The mail in voting discrepancy is so large between D and R in Pennsylvania, that some pollsters are now saying DT could lead by as much as 16% there Tuesday night, and lose once all of the mail in votes are counted.

[The Sultan]

He is taking the data right off the website I linked to...those are actual vote totals. Not made up.

Right.  But he is interpreting what the data says a certain way, mostly by comparing to four years ago.  I think there is a narrative that the early voting benefits the Democrats, but I don't think that's the case necessarily.  I think a lot of people, both Republican and Democrat, are voting early because of the pandemic.  So I think 2016 v. 2020 comparisons at this point are largely useless.

So we will see.  It's four days away.  The story will mostly be told then.

[lawdog77]

Right.  But he is interpreting what the data says a certain way, mostly by comparing to four years ago.  I think there is a narrative that the early voting benefits the Democrats, but I don't think that's the case necessarily.  I think a lot of people, both Republican and Democrat, are voting early because of the pandemic.  So I think 2016 v. 2020 comparisons at this point are largely useless.

So we will see.  It's four days away.  The story will mostly be told then.

Please let this be true. I hope both sides can come together afterwards as well. We need that.

[The Sultan]

Please let this be true. I hope both sides can come together afterwards as well. We need that.

They won't but I agree with you.

[MU82]

Yes, but what do Stella Immanuel (aka Dr. Demon Seed) and the MyPillow guy say?

And has Todd Smith started following Trump? That's always a sure sign!

As Sultan said, it's fun to talk about this stuff -- hell I wrote a mega-post yesterday -- but we'll know in just a few days (or weeks).

[MU Fan in Connecticut]

The mail in voting discrepancy is so large between D and R in Pennsylvania, that some pollsters are now saying DT could lead by as much as 16% there Tuesday night, and lose once all of the mail in votes are counted.

The term is called "Blue Drift".

[MU Fan in Connecticut]

Maybe. 
Trump's approval rating before the pandemic was 47 percent.  An incumbent has never won with a rating that low.
And again, he was behind multiple potential challengers in.pre-COVID polls.
Doesn't mean he wouldn't have won. Incumbency has its benefits.  But he was far from a lock, based on historical trends.

It was actually less than that.  In the aggregate which is the best indicator he never made it over 45% approval which is is presidential first. 

[TSmith34, Inc.]

Probably not quite as shady as Joe Biden as the laptop data has told us. But I digress.

LOL. I said elsewhere, like facts (the fact that the whole laptop story was from a made up person) will never change these peoples' so-called minds.

[muguru]

LOL. I said elsewhere, like facts (the fact that the whole laptop story was from a made up person) will never change these peoples' so-called minds.

A made up person?? You're one of the worst at believing everything the networks tell you. If it was fake, why has the Homeland Security committee said it's 100% factual?? Why did the DOJ announce last night that there is an ACTIVE investigation into it and has been since 2019?? So what you're saying is Tony Bobulinski, a former navy vet, is a total liar?? Yet, Vindamann was/is an American hero to you, right?? Nice try, but you aren't winning this one. BTW, that "report" your citing isn't even referring to the laptop scandal. It's fabricated.

Most of all why has NO ONE and I mean NO ONE in the Biden camp denied that the emails etc are real?? Because they are. Now flip this around and if it were DJT and one of his sons, you(and many others) would be talking non stop about it 24/7 and how true it is etc. That is FACT. Oh and CNN would be covering it 24/7 as well.

[Uncle Rico]

A made up person?? You're one of the worst at believing everything the networks tell you. If it was fake, why has the Homeland Security committee said it's 100% factual?? Why did the DOJ announce last night that there is an ACTIVE investigation into it and has been since 2019?? So what you're saying is Tony Bobulinski, a former navy vet, is a total liar?? Yet, Vindamann was/is an American hero to you, right?? Nice try, but you aren't winning this one. BTW, that "report" your citing isn't even referring to the laptop scandal. It's fabricated.

Most of all why has NO ONE and I mean NO ONE in the Biden camp denied that the emails etc are real?? Because they are. Now flip this around and if it were DJT and one of his sons, you(and many others) would be talking non stop about it 24/7 and how true it is etc. That is FACT. Oh and CNN would be covering it 24/7 as well.

Cool story, bro

[tower912]

I'm glad your back, guru.  Hones arguments. Prevents complacency.  Reminds us all why it is so important to vote.

[muguru]

Cool story, bro

It's so amazing how much you libs deny reality just to try to protect your candidate..CBS reporter good enough source?? nah.

https://twitter.com/CBS_Herridge/status/1322257763192496129?s=20

[Uncle Rico]

It's so amazing how much you libs deny reality just to try to protect your candidate..CBS reporter good enough source?? nah.

https://twitter.com/CBS_Herridge/status/1322257763192496129?s=20

Cool story, bro

[Jockey]

A made up person?? You're one of the worst at believing everything the networks tell you. If it was fake, why has the Homeland Security committee said it's 100% factual?? Why did the DOJ announce last night that there is an ACTIVE investigation into it and has been since 2019?? So what you're saying is Tony Bobulinski, a former navy vet, is a total liar?? Yet, Vindamann was/is an American hero to you, right?? Nice try, but you aren't winning this one. BTW, that "report" your citing isn't even referring to the laptop scandal. It's fabricated.

Most of all why has NO ONE and I mean NO ONE in the Biden camp denied that the emails etc are real?? Because they are. Now flip this around and if it were DJT and one of his sons, you(and many others) would be talking non stop about it 24/7 and how true it is etc. That is FACT. Oh and CNN would be covering it 24/7 as well.

Q contacted me and said to tell you not to post anymore.

[Skatastrophy]

Who remembers when the Clinton family was accused of murdering a number of people?  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Clinton_Body_Count

[jesmu84]

LOL. I said elsewhere, like facts (the fact that the whole laptop story was from a made up person) will never change these peoples' so-called minds.

You guys are talking about 2 different things.

1. The Hunter Biden laptop/email story appears to be true.

2. The Hunter Biden China story appears to be fabricated.

[ZiggysFryBoy]

You guys are talking about 2 different things.

1. The Hunter Biden laptop/email story appears to be true.

2. The Hunter Biden China story appears to be fabricated.

Tsmith wrong?  That's unpossible.

[The Sultan]

You guys are talking about 2 different things.

1. The Hunter Biden laptop/email story appears to be true.

2. The Hunter Biden China story appears to be fabricated.

Furthermore...

1. Hunter Biden is a somewhat shady character who has often seemed to profit off his name.

2. The evidence doesn't suggest that Joe was an active participant or profited from Hunter's actions.

[rocket surgeon]

Tsmith wrong?  That's unpossible.

plausible deniability eyn'a?

  all they gotta do is ask.  our media trets it like don't ask, don't tell.  they won't even ask uncle joe.  "journalistic standards" are gone.  they reported for 3 years, hell, they still report on an unverified dossier.  once they found out DNC and hrc paid for it, they ran like hell.  just ask that schiff faced senator from california

[The Sultan]

plausible deniability eyn'a?

  all they gotta do is ask.  our media trets it like don't ask, don't tell.  they won't even ask uncle joe.  "journalistic standards" are gone.  they reported for 3 years, hell, they still report on an unverified dossier.  once they found out DNC and hrc paid for it, they ran like hell.  just ask that schiff faced senator from california

[brewcity77]

If Democrats aren't telling you they are VERY scared about the early voting totals that have been tracked in some states(particularly Florida), they are flat out lying to you. They should be terrified. They aren't running up nearly the leads they had anticipated in some of these states. And make no mistake about it, Republicans WILL flood the polls on Tuesday night.

Actually...Florida numbers at the moment heavily favor Biden. While there is only a 2-point gap in registered D vs R ballots, Dems are breaking 94-4 for Biden while Republicans are just 85-13 for Trump. Independents are also going 60-24 for Biden, which would come out to a 17-point edge for Biden in Florida based on what's in so far. Nate Silver had a good tweet on this today.

That said, it's inferring polls and assuming votes will mirror them, but based on respective party support, things look very positive for Biden. That Donald Trump is spending resources to protect Georgia and Texas while pulling ads out of Wisconsin and Florida seems to indicate a very narrow path for Trump. They need all the toss-up states (Florida, NC, Georgia, Ohio, Iowa) while also pulling Pennsylvania to stay in the fight. If Trump pulls it out, he likely needs all 5 of Nebraska's votes and to come out of Maine with something.