Vote!

[Lennys Tap]

Unemployment and average wages

Exactly. Fewer people unemployed, workers wages rising = a better economy for everyone.

[Pakuni]

Unemployment and average wages

In Obama's final three years, unemployment went from 6.7 percent to 4.7 percent.
Pre-COVID, unemployment under Trump went from 4.7 percent to 3.5 percent.

In Obama's final three years, median income grew 8.4 percent.  In Trump's first three, it grew 7.8 percent.

The Trump "boom" merely is a continuation of what already was happening.

[shoothoops]

Can we move some of the economy posts to the COVID-19 Economy thread, and keep this additional thread for voting? They are both worthy topics of discussion.

[Galway Eagle]

First time ever MPS is giving teachers off so they can vote. I've told my GF repeatedly over the years that they legally have to allow them time but due to substitute shortages only a handful were ever actually approved. It's a good move and I hope that all districts do the same

[The Sultan]

In Obama's final three years, unemployment went from 6.7 percent to 4.7 percent.
Pre-COVID, unemployment under Trump went from 4.7 percent to 3.5 percent.

In Obama's final three years, median income grew 8.4 percent.  In Trump's first three, it grew 7.8 percent.

The Trump "boom" merely is a continuation of what already was happening.

You have to give people a reason to vote against an incumbent when things are going well.  The pandemic was that reason.

I think Trump would have won handily without it.

[Pakuni]

You have to give people a reason to vote against an incumbent when things are going well.  The pandemic was that reason.

I think Trump would have won handily without it.

Maybe. 
Trump's approval rating before the pandemic was 47 percent.  An incumbent has never won with a rating that low.
And again, he was behind multiple potential challengers in.pre-COVID polls.
Doesn't mean he wouldn't have won. Incumbency has its benefits.  But he was far from a lock, based on historical trends.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Obama's administration turned around the 2008 recession and did an excellent job improving the American economy.

Trump's administration took what Obama's administration had started and continued improvement which is impressive given we were 8+ years into economic recovery.

I think there are stats both sides could point to as outliers. Trump did a lot more for average wages than Obama did. Under Obama, a record low amount of people weren't covered by health insurance which has trended the opposite way under Trump. Truth is, both presidents saw great economic growth (pre-pandemic).

Whichever party wins next week will be given a great gift. We are in recession again and the winning party will get to claim credit for a likely quick (and already started) recovery.

[shoothoops]

People who didn't or couldn't vote in 2016:

17.5 million of them have already voted. (20% of the early voting numbers).

7.5 million registered Democrats
5.5 million registered Republicans.
4.46 million Independent voters.

[wadesworld]

Did we ever find out what state Trump found all those absentee ballots floating down a river?  Imagine the early voting numbers if those ballots hadn't been thrown into a river!

[GB Warrior]

People who didn't or couldn't vote in 2016:

17.5 million of them have already voted. (20% of the early voting numbers).

7.5 million registered Democrats
5.5 million registered Republicans.
4.46 million Independent voters.

There is always a chance that early voting is not a sign of enthusiasm and is just cannibalizing from election day votes, but if you're the Dems, you feel good about banking votes early and expecting to have a sizeable lead (on average, mileage will vary by state) of the independents.

Regardless, I'm sure we can all agree that high civic engagement and turnout is always a good thing - regardless your political persuasion - unless you're racist, classist or an autocrat.

[shoothoops]

There is always a chance that early voting is not a sign of enthusiasm and is just cannibalizing from election day votes, but if you're the Dems, you feel good about banking votes early and expecting to have a sizeable lead (on average, mileage will vary by state) of the independents.

Regardless, I'm sure we can all agree that high civic engagement and turnout is always a good thing - regardless your political persuasion - unless you're racist, classist or an autocrat.

Yep, and of course, with different voting rules per state, means things will swing different ways. Example, Pennsylvania votes will likely be more for DT early and more for JB later.

I mentioned before that one conservative estimate had voter turnout this year at 66%. By comparison, 2008 higher election turnout had 62% voter turnout. We'll see. Maximizing voter turnout with ease of voting needs to be an improved priority moving forward.

[Pakuni]

Obama's administration turned around the 2008 recession and did an excellent job improving the American economy.

Trump's administration took what Obama's administration had started and continued improvement which is impressive given we were 8+ years into economic recovery.

This is entirely fair. If anyone wants to make the case that Trump took a strong economy and it remained strong in his first three years, we agree. But he didn't build it. He inherited it, and all the trend data shows that.

[forgetful]

Trump's administration took what Obama's administration had started and continued improvement which is impressive given we were 8+ years into economic recovery.

Let's also be completely honest and indicate that he did this by pumping cash into the market through a tax cut that led to an over $1T deficit before COVID.

Long term, that is not good for the economy. It is an immediate bolus, that was going to lead to a downturn difficult to turn around as the measures employed to do so were already deployed.

[muguru]

If Democrats aren't telling you they are VERY scared about the early voting totals that have been tracked in some states(particularly Florida), they are flat out lying to you. They should be terrified. They aren't running up nearly the leads they had anticipated in some of these states. And make no mistake about it, Republicans WILL flood the polls on Tuesday night.

[Uncle Rico]

If Democrats aren't telling you they are VERY scared about the early voting totals that have been tracked in some states(particularly Florida), they are flat out lying to you. They should be terrified. They aren't running up nearly the leads they had anticipated in some of these states. And make no mistake about it, Republicans WILL flood the polls on Tuesday night.

Cool story, bro.

[Pakuni]

Cool story, bro.

muguru has a source in Florida leaking results to him. Fact.

[The Sultan]

If Democrats aren't telling you they are VERY scared about the early voting totals that have been tracked in some states(particularly Florida), they are flat out lying to you. They should be terrified. They aren't running up nearly the leads they had anticipated in some of these states. And make no mistake about it, Republicans WILL flood the polls on Tuesday night.

Well Tuesday night would be too late.

But anyway, we will see.  I think a lot of people are seeing what they want to see in the numbers.  But if you are right, it would be a monumental miss by polls of all sorts. 

[muguru]

Larry Schweikart
@LarrySchweikart
·
27m
FL In Person Early Vote
Rs +495,995

VBM-IPEV=D +142,453

In 2016 on election eve Ds led by 96,000
R Target #1:  46,453

I mean if you don't believe those numbers, you can check it out here for yourself, it live updates: https://joeisdone.github.io/florida/

Larry Schweikart
@LarrySchweikart
·
28m
AZ: Rs just slashed the D lead in half.
Ds +26,496

Larry Schweikart
@LarrySchweikart
·
44m
In early voting in CO, black vote -1.1% from 2016

Assuming that a higher proportion of the remaining 3% vote for Trump (say, 15% of that 3%) the Democrat black vote is -1.5% off 2016

Larry Schweikart
@LarrySchweikart
·
1h
Interesting data point: very blue OR 17% behind their absentee return rate from 2016.

Larry Schweikart
@LarrySchweikart
·
3h
NC
Ds +270,000 (2016 was 310,000)

ALARM BELLS!!
Black share dropped to 19.55 (dropped for 5th straight day)
In 2016 this was 21%.
This year Trump will take an additional 3-5% of that 19%.

Larry Schweikart
@LarrySchweikart
·
3h
Some other FL counties compared to 2016
*Osceola (blue) Ds -19 compared to 2016
*Duval -5
*Orange (blue) -14
*Leon (blue) -7
*Gadsden (blue) +3

Larry Schweikart
@LarrySchweikart
·
3h
Rs now 3,000 votes ahead in Palm Beach
Ds now a shocking 19 points behind their 2016 pace here.

In Miami Dade it's worse for Ds: down 7,000 in IPEV and off 2016 pace by nearly 30 points!

[Uncle Rico]

Larry Schweikart
@LarrySchweikart
·
27m
FL In Person Early Vote
Rs +495,995

VBM-IPEV=D +142,453

In 2016 on election eve Ds led by 96,000
R Target #1:  46,453

I mean if you don't believe those numbers, you can check it out here for yourself, it live updates: https://joeisdone.github.io/florida/

Larry Schweikart
@LarrySchweikart
·
28m
AZ: Rs just slashed the D lead in half.
Ds +26,496

Larry Schweikart
@LarrySchweikart
·
44m
In early voting in CO, black vote -1.1% from 2016

Assuming that a higher proportion of the remaining 3% vote for Trump (say, 15% of that 3%) the Democrat black vote is -1.5% off 2016

Larry Schweikart
@LarrySchweikart
·
1h
Interesting data point: very blue OR 17% behind their absentee return rate from 2016.

Larry Schweikart
@LarrySchweikart
·
3h
NC
Ds +270,000 (2016 was 310,000)

ALARM BELLS!!
Black share dropped to 19.55 (dropped for 5th straight day)
In 2016 this was 21%.
This year Trump will take an additional 3-5% of that 19%.

Larry Schweikart
@LarrySchweikart
·
3h
Some other FL counties compared to 2016
*Osceola (blue) Ds -19 compared to 2016
*Duval -5
*Orange (blue) -14
*Leon (blue) -7
*Gadsden (blue) +3

Larry Schweikart
@LarrySchweikart
·
3h
Rs now 3,000 votes ahead in Palm Beach
Ds now a shocking 19 points behind their 2016 pace here.

In Miami Dade it's worse for Ds: down 7,000 in IPEV and off 2016 pace by nearly 30 points!

He's not counting the buses of illegal voters I've been busing in with the Krassentein's and Soros to tilt the count on Tuesday.  It worked for Beto in 2018 like he reported then

[muguru]

https://twitter.com/Peoples_Pundit/status/1322159611504435201?s=20

[The Sultan]

^^^^

As I said, people will see what they want to see.  He may be right.  But it's hard to believe he's an independent thinker given his twitter feed.

[muguru]

He's not counting the buses of illegal voters I've been busing in with the Krassentein's and Soros to tilt the count on Tuesday.  It worked for Beto in 2018 like he reported then

Let me just say it would NOT surprise me in the least if the Krassenstein's would do this...talk about the shadiest of shady.

[Uncle Rico]

^^^^

As I said, people will see what they want to see.  He may be right.  But it's hard to believe he's an independent thinker given his twitter feed.

I mean, Larry Schweikert uses the term DemoKKKrat

[muguru]

^^^^

As I said, people will see what they want to see.  He may be right.  But it's hard to believe he's an independent thinker given his twitter feed.

He is taking the data right off the website I linked to...those are actual vote totals. Not made up.

[Uncle Rico]

Let me just say it would NOT surprise me in the least if the Krassenstein's would do this...talk about the shadiest of shady.

As shady as Charlie Kirk?