Vaccine/Antibody updates

[pacearrow02]

The point of shutting down - if we do it right - would be to minimize the rate of transmission and thereby minimize the rate of mutations, so we don't have to keep shutting down in the future. If we don't shut down now, the future state will likely be very unpleasant..and considerably worse than we are living in today.

https://fortune.com/2021/01/06/covid-pandemic-recession-unemployment-mortality-rate-increase/

Kind of a no win situation right now when juggling the idea of shutting down again or not.  Damned if we do, damned if we don't according to this John Hopkins study

[forgetful]

https://fortune.com/2021/01/06/covid-pandemic-recession-unemployment-mortality-rate-increase/

Kind of a no win situation right now when juggling the idea of shutting down again or not.  Damned if we do, damned if we don't according to this John Hopkins study

No, that is not what that study says. And no, in general that is not a correct assessment of the data. And that's all that I will entertain on this topic.

[GooooMarquette]

We may not have enough people vaccinated for herd immunity, but we may have "the right" people largely vaccinated to significantly lessen hospitalizations and deaths.

Possibly. But with evidence indicating that the UK strain may be more virulent (and possibilities that others might be as well), combined with the possibility of new mutations that can infect even previously infected people, it's also possible that the decrease may not be all that significant. And if we get mutations that get around even vaccinated people, well...

I know the political will probably doesn't exist to shut down again. I'm just giving the medical/scientific viewpoint.

[Jockey]

We may not have enough people vaccinated for herd immunity, but we may have "the right" people largely vaccinated to significantly lessen hospitalizations and deaths.

I think you are probably right, but the problem remains that the vaccine is not widely available - even to groups that are currently on the list.

I can only speak for Racine, but they don't have supplies to vaccinate those people who have been told they can be vaccinated. Neither Ascension nor Walgreens - probably the 2 biggest providers have available doses.

Supposedly, we have deals with Pfizer and Moderna for 400 Mil by summer - but I don't know that we will have the supplies or vaccine to do 100M in 100 days.

[The Sultan]

I think you are probably right, but the problem remains that the vaccine is not widely available - even to groups that are currently on the list.

I can only speak for Racine, but they don't have supplies to vaccinate those people who have been told they can be vaccinated. Neither Ascension nor Walgreens - probably the 2 biggest providers have available doses.

Supposedly, we have deals with Pfizer and Moderna for 400 Mil by summer - but I don't know that we will have the supplies or vaccine to do 100M in 100 days.

Right.  I originally said keeping people in serious mitigation mode through the Spring.  So by summer.  We have four-plus months to get there.

[ZiggysFryBoy]

Moderna announces their vaccine is effective against the British and South African variants. 

No word on the Brazil strain.

Well, shhheeeeeeiiitttt, now they are working on a booster for the south African strain.

[The Sultan]

Again, we aren't doing that bad with vaccinations.  Our rate per 100 is better than pretty much everyone else. 

https://twitter.com/jbarro/status/1353827231462797312?s=20

[forgetful]

Moderna announces their vaccine is effective against the British and South African variants.

No word on the Brazil strain.

Well, shhheeeeeeiiitttt, now they are working on a booster for the south African strain.

Yes and no. They believe it will likely be less effective against the South African variant, how much so, they don't know, hence the idea of a booster.

But any booster will have to undergo clinical testing still.

[GooooMarquette]

Yes and no. They believe it will likely be less effective against the South African variant, how much so, they don't know, hence the idea of a booster.

But any booster will have to undergo clinical testing still.

It will be interesting to see how much clinical testing FDA requires for any boosters. Will it be the very abbreviated testing undergone by the annual flu vaccine, or a more extensive investigation like the original Covid vaccines? mRNA vaccines are still new, so I could see an argument in favor of the latter. But given the urgency of the situation, I suspect they will go with an abbreviated review process.

[forgetful]

It will be interesting to see how much clinical testing FDA requires for any boosters. Will it be the very abbreviated testing undergone by the annual flu vaccine, or a more extensive investigation like the original Covid vaccines? mRNA vaccines are still new, so I could see an argument in favor of the latter. But given the urgency of the situation, I suspect they will go with an abbreviated review process.

I'd be concerned if they abbreviated the review process. Although unlikely, there would be the possibility that any booster designed against the mutated virus, could cause vaccine-induced enhancement of the viral infection (similar to what happened with some early Measles vaccines).

I agree, we might see it rushed due to urgency, but if they asked me I'd be cautioning against it.

[GooooMarquette]

I'd be concerned if they abbreviated the review process. Although unlikely, there would be the possibility that any booster designed against the mutated virus, could cause vaccine-induced enhancement of the viral infection (similar to what happened with some early Measles vaccines).

I agree, we might see it rushed due to urgency, but if they asked me I'd be cautioning against it.

I totally agree.

Unfortunately, without the political will to do another shutdown, I fear that a complete review could take so long that the vaccine may be rendered obsolete by new mutations before they are finished.

The poor decisionmaking a year ago keeps haunting us every step of the way.

[MU82]

From the NYT:

In New York, Mayor Bill de Blasio announced that he would delay the openings of mass vaccination sites at Yankee Stadium and Citi Field because the city didn't have enough doses to distribute. Many New Yorkers have had their inoculation appointments canceled as the city waits on more vaccines. ...

Meanwhile, there's growing evidence that the virus is morphing more quickly than experts had thought, with new variants emerging that make it more difficult to contain. Yesterday, two drug makers reported that their vaccines, while still effective, are slightly less potent against the variant from South Africa.

[JWags85]

From the NYT:

In New York, Mayor Bill de Blasio announced that he would delay the openings of mass vaccination sites at Yankee Stadium and Citi Field because the city didn't have enough doses to distribute. Many New Yorkers have had their inoculation appointments canceled as the city waits on more vaccines. ...

Meanwhile, there's growing evidence that the virus is morphing more quickly than experts had thought, with new variants emerging that make it more difficult to contain. Yesterday, two drug makers reported that their vaccines, while still effective, are slightly less potent against the variant from South Africa.

This is a joke. NY continues to bumble this.  My GF's boss was vaccinated in NY yesterday.  He was trying to schedule a vaccine for his wife as she has a family history of breathing issues.  They asked if either of them had "qualifying" issues or underlying medical conditions that would make them eligible for early vaccination...except they didn't have to detail which due to HIPAA.  He said "umm yes?" And he and his wife were both scheduled, no issue.  He's a perfectly healthy 39 year old who works in an office building. 

If NY doesn't have doses, it's cause they have no clue what they are doing, but naturally de Blasio will find someone else to blame.

[forgetful]

This is a joke. NY continues to bumble this.  My GF's boss was vaccinated in NY yesterday.  He was trying to schedule a vaccine for his wife as she has a family history of breathing issues.  They asked if either of them had "qualifying" issues or underlying medical conditions that would make them eligible for early vaccination...except they didn't have to detail which due to HIPAA.  He said "umm yes?" And he and his wife were both scheduled, no issue.  He's a perfectly healthy 39 year old who works in an office building. 

If NY doesn't have doses, it's cause they have no clue what they are doing, but naturally de Blasio will find someone else to blame.

Not sure how that story is "NY and de Blasio bumbling this". It is the same story everywhere. You are not required to provide proof of a medical condition. It's all on the honor system. Even then, group 1b includes people that are overweight (BMI above 25) and people that were previously smokers. It isn't hard to get included in phase 1b.

That isn't a NY thing, it is a US thing. Like most places, NY is now out of vaccine doses. Nationwide there is more demand than supply for the groups currently authorized to be vaccinated, so you see cancelation of appointments and suspension of vaccine campaigns because there is no vaccine. We need more supply, which is why months ago, they should have enacted the defense production act to facilitate supply.

[TSmith34, Inc.]

If NY doesn't have doses, it's cause they have no clue what they are doing, but naturally de Blasio will find someone else to blame.

Errr, what? Unless NY is producing their own vaccine doses, your statement doesn't make any sense.

[GooooMarquette]

This is a joke. NY continues to bumble this.  My GF's boss was vaccinated in NY yesterday.  He was trying to schedule a vaccine for his wife as she has a family history of breathing issues.  They asked if either of them had "qualifying" issues or underlying medical conditions that would make them eligible for early vaccination...except they didn't have to detail which due to HIPAA.  He said "umm yes?" And he and his wife were both scheduled, no issue.  He's a perfectly healthy 39 year old who works in an office building. 

If NY doesn't have doses, it's cause they have no clue what they are doing, but naturally de Blasio will find someone else to blame.

I'm not gonna defend DiBlasio because he has messed up plenty of times...but if NY doesn't have doses, it's because they haven't been delivered. And NY isn't alone in this; state and local public health officials have been quite uniform in their comments about not receiving the doses they had been promised.

[JWags85]

There were stories coming out of NYC less than a month ago that there were countless appointments available because the registration/appointment scheduling process online was too confusing or complicated for many members of the priority groups.  Now they have no doses available. Im just saying it's a mess. They messed up the initial phase, and now it's a disaster (mostly due to things out of their control), but it's not like it's been a tightly run ship that suddenly is off course due to no fault of their own.  I didn't convey that well at first and mixed points, but I'm just very slow to feel bad for BDB on anything and trust they did everything right up to that point after living through his COVID crapshow March-June

[pbiflyer]

Again, we aren't doing that bad with vaccinations.  Our rate per 100 is better than pretty much everyone else. 

https://twitter.com/jbarro/status/1353827231462797312?s=20

Yah, we are one of the tallest midgets!

[The Sultan]

If you think things are bad here with distribution, they are really messed up in the European Union.  They were late to sign agreements and bet too big on the AZ vaccine. 

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/27/world/europe/europe-covid-vaccinations.html?smtyp=cur&smid=tw-nytimes

This is going to hand Boris Johnson and other Brexit opponents a big political victory as well since England is doing very well with its roll out.

[GooooMarquette]

If you think things are bad here with distribution, they are really messed up in the European Union.  They were late to sign agreements and bet too big on the AZ vaccine. 

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/27/world/europe/europe-covid-vaccinations.html?smtyp=cur&smid=tw-nytimes

This is going to hand Boris Johnson and other Brexit proponents opponents a big political victory as well since England is doing very well with its roll out.

It is kinda ironic that the UK got the better end of the first big post-Brexit 'contest' between the UK and the EU. In the long term, the EU will be just fine, but they really screwed the pooch on this one.

(And FIFY)

[The Sultan]

It is kinda ironic that the UK got the better end of the first big post-Brexit 'contest' between the UK and the EU. In the long term, the EU will be just fine, but they really screwed the pooch on this one.

(And FIFY)

Oh I agree with you.  I just think its interesting that this is reinforcing all of the criticisms about the EU.

[GooooMarquette]

Oh I agree with you.  I just think its interesting that this is reinforcing all of the criticisms about the EU.

Absolutely. Interesting how things work sometimes....

[JWags85]

Oh I agree with you.  I just think its interesting that this is reinforcing all of the criticisms about the EU.

My colleagues in Belgium, the heart of the EU's driving mentality, always say their 3 most impactful exports are beer, chocolate, and ineffective bureaucracy

[GooooMarquette]

Quick thinking by stranded Oregon public health workers prevents waste of several doses of Covid vaccine. Just a drop in the bucket, but we need more vaccination officials thinking this way to get as many shoots in arms as humanly possible.

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/28/us/oregon-vaccine-stuck-in-the-snow-drivers.html?action=click&module=News&pgtype=Homepage

The public health workers were driving back from a vaccination site in rural Cave Junction, Ore., on Tuesday when they got stuck in a snowstorm on the highway.

They knew they had only six hours to get the remaining doses of coronavirus vaccine back to people who were waiting for their shots in Grants Pass, roughly 30 miles away. Normally, the trip takes about 45 minutes.

But with a jackknifed tractor-trailer ahead of them, the crew realized they could be stuck for hours and the doses would expire.

So the workers made the decision to walk from car to car asking stranded drivers if they wanted to be vaccinated, right there on the spot.

[ZiggysFryBoy]

Quick thinking by stranded Oregon public health workers prevents waste of several doses of Covid vaccine. Just a drop in the bucket, but we need more vaccination officials thinking this way to get as many shoots in arms as humanly possible.

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/28/us/oregon-vaccine-stuck-in-the-snow-drivers.html?action=click&module=News&pgtype=Homepage

The public health workers were driving back from a vaccination site in rural Cave Junction, Ore., on Tuesday when they got stuck in a snowstorm on the highway.

They knew they had only six hours to get the remaining doses of coronavirus vaccine back to people who were waiting for their shots in Grants Pass, roughly 30 miles away. Normally, the trip takes about 45 minutes.

But with a jackknifed tractor-trailer ahead of them, the crew realized they could be stuck for hours and the doses would expire.

So the workers made the decision to walk from car to car asking stranded drivers if they wanted to be vaccinated, right there on the spot.

Clever, but not sure if i would take a shot in the arm from 2 cats walking around in a snowstorm.