Vaccine/Antibody updates

[Galway Eagle]

Finally heard back from a vaccine trial. Trying to decide whether to participate or not now that two have been approved.

[tower912]

Going to have to be more and better production.   Going to actually need coordination with logistics.   Locally, the medical facilities are desperate for doses.   Having opted out of the first round due to existing antibodies, I am now being told my next opportunity, originally thought to be the first week of February, is now probably thought to be early March.   

No idea if this is universal.   Just know that locally the problem is supply, not demand.

[The Sultan]

Going to have to be more and better production.   Going to actually need coordination with logistics.   Locally, the medical facilities are desperate for doses.   Having opted out of the first round due to existing antibodies, I am now being told my next opportunity, originally thought to be the first week of February, is now probably thought to be early March.   

No idea if this is universal.   Just know that locally the problem is supply, not demand.

But I think the good news is despite the lack of plan, distribution is going decent.  I think production is the problem.  The local health system here is saying that they have the time and personnel to ramp up shots in arms, but just don't have the doses.

[GooooMarquette]

A year of COVID.   New guys walk in to find no, zero, zip, nada, bupkes federal vaccine distribution plan.

Feels like the Detroit Lions leadership was in charge.

So, starting from scratch, there are going to have to be a lot of vaccines on the back end to reach 100 million in 100 days.

Lions leadership should be terribly insulted with this comparison. The Lions actually won 5 of 16 games this season.

[tower912]

Lions leadership should be terribly insulted with this comparison. The Lions actually won 5 of 16 games this season.

Well, Matthew Stafford did.

[MUINGB]

I signed up yesterday...earliest I get in is Feb 5th, so I a grateful for that.

[pacearrow02]

A year of COVID.   New guys walk in to find no, zero, zip, nada, bupkes federal vaccine distribution plan.

Feels like the Detroit Lions leadership was in charge.

So, starting from scratch, there are going to have to be a lot of vaccines on the back end to reach 100 million in 100 days.

Fauci said this reporting is false.  But we can all agree that guy is less then reliable with accurate information so who knows.

[tower912]

Go get 'em, Sparky. 

[pacearrow02]

Go get 'em, Sparky.

Keep spreading misinformation tower!

[tower912]

You mean 'start'.    And Fauci also said he felt liberated and that it felt good to be able to talk honestly about the virus.    Science.   But thanks, spanky. 

[pacearrow02]

You mean 'start'.    And Fauci also said he felt liberated and that it felt good to be able to talk honestly about the virus.    Science.   But thanks, spanky.

Fauci saying he feels liberated to talk science isn't what your OP said....chief

[tower912]

You are correct, binky.  I did not use the entire interview.   Shame on me.

[pacearrow02]

You are correct, binky.  I did not use the entire interview.   Shame on me.

Is it that hard to say the information you posted from a CNN article turned out to be inaccurate?

[forgetful]

https://investors.modernatx.com/news-releases/news-release-details/moderna-covid-19-vaccine-retains-neutralizing-activity-against

Not good news. Although the Moderna vaccine appears to still retain efficacy against the UK and South African strains, the neutralizing antibodies are 6-fold less active against the South African strain, which means there will likely be a decrease in efficacy for the vaccine.

The new Brazil strain hasn't been tested yet, but is similar to the South African strain, and is driving a second wave in Manaus.

If this keeps up, we will have an escape mutant before we even vaccinate 30% of our population.

We might want to consider shutting things down for awhile to stop the spread, and mutation of this virus. Or we will be seeing an escape mutant.

[The Sultan]

There is zero chance we are shutting down anything.  The political environment would never allow it.  I'm just hoping people do mitigation through the Spring because I think there will be zero appetite for a summer like last year's.

[GooooMarquette]

There is zero chance we are shutting down anything.  The political environment would never allow it.  I'm just hoping people do mitigation through the Spring because I think there will be zero appetite for a summer like last year's.

I fear you are right. I also fear this will cause another huge spike in cases, suffering and deaths because the vaccination rate is not nearly fast enough to prevent it.

If we followed science instead of politics, we would be in a much better place.

[forgetful]

There is zero chance we are shutting down anything.  The political environment would never allow it.  I'm just hoping people do mitigation through the Spring because I think there will be zero appetite for a summer like last year's.

I agree in all regards. Unfortunately, I'm now fearing that we may be living in a new normal. I think we have some time to avoid it, but there are some red flags popping up that threatens a return to the old normal.

[MUfan12]

There is zero chance we are shutting down anything.  The political environment would never allow it.  I'm just hoping people do mitigation through the Spring because I think there will be zero appetite for a summer like last year's.

I agree. And if this thing is gonna keep mutating, at what point do we just get shots in arms and just have to live with it? This could go on forever if we shut down for every new threatening strain.

[tower912]

I assume that this will become like a second flu shot.    Getting an annual vaccine that most closely approximates what is needed to fight the dominant strain du jour.

[GooooMarquette]

I agree. And if this thing is gonna keep mutating, at what point do we just get shots in arms and just have to live with it? This could go on forever if we shut down for every new threatening strain.

The point of shutting down - if we do it right - would be to minimize the rate of transmission and thereby minimize the rate of mutations, so we don't have to keep shutting down in the future. If we don't shut down now, the future state will likely be very unpleasant..and considerably worse than we are living in today.

[The Sultan]

I fear you are right. I also fear this will cause another huge spike in cases, suffering and deaths because the vaccination rate is not nearly fast enough to prevent it.

We may not have enough people vaccinated for herd immunity, but we may have "the right" people largely vaccinated to significantly lessen hospitalizations and deaths.

[MUfan12]

The point of shutting down - if we do it right - would be to minimize the rate of transmission and thereby minimize the rate of mutations, so we don't have to keep shutting down in the future.

So.. flattening the curve?

In theory, you're correct. But I just have a growing skepticism about how effective these measures are in reality.

[cheebs09]

It will be interesting to see how things go with these new strains and the restlessness of people. It looks like some states are allowing indoor dining. I'm hearing more and more about back to work.

Which from my perspective, has anything changed regarding cases/death/spread to warrant this? Or are we just getting restless and wanting to get back to some normal and live with the risks?

[injuryBug]

I see Wuhan is back to normal but yet we have the new strains popping up.  At any moment we could see the new strains surface any place, so is it not dangerous that places are back to normal?

Hopefully with us back in the WHO we can collaborate and have much better results than the past year

[The Sultan]

It will be interesting to see how things go with these new strains and the restlessness of people. It looks like some states are allowing indoor dining. I'm hearing more and more about back to work.

Which from my perspective, has anything changed regarding cases/death/spread to warrant this? Or are we just getting restless and wanting to get back to some normal and live with the risks?

I think clearly people want to get back to normal.  There is no way we are having another year of remote schooling after this one.  There will be no political appetite for another round of financial stimulus.

So IMO the next few months are going to be about getting the vaccine to those who most need it, and telling everyone else to be patient.  But by summer?    I think people are going to pretty much want to return to what they want to do.  Maybe large sporting events and things like Summerfest still have limitations, but indoor dining, etc. will look similar to what it was.