Investing Thread

[rocky_warrior]

Rocky, when are you going to start suing companies for not advertising on scoop?

Our ad revenue is up quite a bit this summer.  I'm not looking to alienate them

[MU82]

From Yahoo Finance:

In the last of the week's major investing news, the latest University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey released Friday showed sentiment ticked higher in August. The index reading for the month came in at 67.8, up from 66.4 in July and above the 66.9 economists had expected. It was the highest reading of consumer sentiment since June.

The reading on consumer sentiment comes amid a volatile two weeks for the stock market and the overall narrative surrounding the US economy. A weaker-than-expected July jobs report fueled concerns about how rapidly the US labor market is cooling, helping spark a market sell-off.

But that narrative has shifted this week as the latest data prints have shown inflation continues to fall toward the Fed's 2% goal while consumer spending holds up and the pace of jobless claims doesn't accelerate.

"This week's jam-packed data calendar delivered mostly good news," Bank of America Securities head of economics Michael Gapen wrote in a weekly note on Friday. "Inflation was generally tepid, and activity still looks healthy."

[SoCalEagle]

From Yahoo Finance:

In the last of the week's major investing news, the latest University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey released Friday showed sentiment ticked higher in August. The index reading for the month came in at 67.8, up from 66.4 in July and above the 66.9 economists had expected. It was the highest reading of consumer sentiment since June.

The reading on consumer sentiment comes amid a volatile two weeks for the stock market and the overall narrative surrounding the US economy. A weaker-than-expected July jobs report fueled concerns about how rapidly the US labor market is cooling, helping spark a market sell-off.

But that narrative has shifted this week as the latest data prints have shown inflation continues to fall toward the Fed's 2% goal while consumer spending holds up and the pace of jobless claims doesn't accelerate.

"This week's jam-packed data calendar delivered mostly good news," Bank of America Securities head of economics Michael Gapen wrote in a weekly note on Friday. "Inflation was generally tepid, and activity still looks healthy."

Consumer sentiment is spiking?  Hmmm, perhaps people are feeling more joyful. 

[MU82]

Consumer sentiment is spiking?  Hmmm, perhaps people are feeling more joyful.

Greenspan might have called it possible irrational exuberance, but I like your explanation better.

[MU82]

A slew of favorable macro data in recent days has prompted Goldman Sachs to reduce its view on the probability of a U.S. recessionary risk for next year from 25% to 20%.

https://seekingalpha.com/news/4141258-goldman-cuts-us-recession-risk?

[Skatastrophy]

A slew of favorable macro data in recent days has prompted Goldman Sachs to reduce its view on the probability of a U.S. recessionary risk for next year from 25% to 20%.

https://seekingalpha.com/news/4141258-goldman-cuts-us-recession-risk?

Extremely low compared to the continued fear shown by market measures. This bull has a while to run

[SoCalEagle]

The Fed meets at Jackson Hole this week.  I'm sure they will provide guidance on the health of the economy and, on Friday, Chairman Powell will provide some hints on where we are going with interest rate cuts.  It's also his chance to solidify his place in history and claim a "soft landing" has been completed.  Markets will be paying close attention to anything and everything the Fed and, in particular, Powell has to say this week.  Let's see what happens ....

[MU82]

The Fed meets at Jackson Hole this week.  I'm sure they will provide guidance on the health of the economy and, on Friday, Chairman Powell will provide some hints on where we are going with interest rate cuts.  It's also his chance to solidify his place in history and claim a "soft landing" has been completed.  Markets will be paying close attention to anything and everything the Fed and, in particular, Powell has to say this week.  Let's see what happens ....

Agreed. August already has been interesting from an investing POV, and this is a big week.

[MU82]

Corporate America isn't talking about recession.

[Shaka Shart]

Corporate America isn't talking about recession.

Corporate America isn't talking about a recession.

[rocky_warrior]

[Skatastrophy]

Lock the thread, that's it. We're done here.

[Shaka Shart]

?

https://x.com/matthewstoller/status/1825948480378204308?s=46&t=G2FhP_F2kWewaBOpvRv5lg

[Skatastrophy]

I hope that they bust up the merger. Kroger sucks.

[tower912]

Just ask Nickelback.

[Hards Alumni]

This would be my analysis.  When the market pullback happens I think it could get pretty bad.  There are a lot of folks on the edge of retirement or who are retired who will see their funds drying up and will want to exit the market which will only exacerbate the problem. 

Much of what I've seen in the last couple of years is greed for the average company to keep earnings on pace with expectations that the line must always go up.  Meanwhile the market has been largely anchored by very few companies adding a ton of value for somewhat dubious reasons.  IMO, people have been gambling that the big tech firms will somehow weather the eventual downturn or they've been trying (rightly) to beat the market since there isn't much inspiring outside of those tech companies.  Look at how much effect any news moves the market.  Intel laying off 15% of its workforce and they get a haircut.  Nvidia ping ponged $800b in value over the last six months.  Tesla is down almost 20% in the last year. 

I have a generally optimistic view of the economy, but I've said for a while now that the stock market is a mess.  I seriously considered buying some Nvidia today (bookmark this for future laughs at my expense) but am going to hold off until after the new year.  I should just be smart and stick to my ETFs.

Rates need to drop next month, IMO, but that will appear political so who knows if it will or not... wait and see as usual.  Luckily, I'm young(ish) and expect to see a downturn at some point in my life if not more... I'd rather it be now than when I'm 60 though, if I get to choose. 

Price at time of comment 107.27
Today's price 128.56

Dammit.

[MU82]

Price at time of comment 107.27
Today's price 128.56

Dammit.

So, judging by that reaction, I guess it's accurate to say that you didn't build a huge NVDA position at $107.27?

[Shaka Shart]

I hope that they bust up the merger. Kroger sucks.

Produce quality is approaching convenience store levels.

[lawdog77]

Produce quality is approaching convenience store levels.

Grow your own,my brother.

[Shaka Shart]

Grow your own,my brother.

I got 5 tomato plants and 8 pepper plants. Only problem is you start running out and have to switch back at some point each year

[MU82]

Job growth for the last 12 months reduced by nearly 800,000. That, plus dovish comments during last Fed meeting that were released today has Mr. Market expecting a rate cut for sure in September. Now it seems like it's only a matter of whether the cut will be .25 or .50.

[SoCalEagle]

Job growth for the last 12 months reduced by nearly 800,000. That, plus dovish comments during last Fed meeting that were released today has Mr. Market expecting a rate cut for sure in September. Now it seems like it's only a matter of whether the cut will be .25 or .50.

I saw the downward revision of the unemployment numbers and it was not a good sign.  It reminded me that the Sahm Rule, an early indicator of a recession, has been triggered.  I listened to Claudia Sahm on a Bloomberg interview late last week and she agreed that the rule named after her was triggered, but she downplayed the suggestion that a recession had actually started (perhaps contradicting her own rule).  Anyhow, now with the downward revision in unemployment numbers, it will be interesting to see if the calm waters get more choppy from here forward.  I tend to think we will have smooth sailing into the near future, but what do I know?   

For context:

The Sahm Rule says that if the unemployment rate, based on a three-month average, is a half percentage point above its lowest point over the previous 12 months, the economy has tipped into a recession.

[rocket surgeon]

that's quite the revision...original numbers coming out last month sure sounded good and was touted as it should have been, BUT i doubt the revision will even be known by many except those who follow these types of things.  i can't believe this number wasn't baked in a little bit as the people "in the know" know what's real

hopefully the fed will do the right thing to try to balance a potentially capsizing economy.  i am grateful mr market has been as stout as it has.  not sure what affect a real "recession" would have as the numbers are the numbers

[The Sultan]

I saw the downward revision of the unemployment numbers and it was not a good sign.  It reminded me that the Sahm Rule, an early indicator of a recession, has been triggered.  I listened to Claudia Sahm on a Bloomberg interview late last week and she agreed that the rule named after her was triggered, but she downplayed the suggestion that a recession had actually started (perhaps contradicting her own rule).  Anyhow, now with the downward revision in unemployment numbers, it will be interesting to see if the calm waters get more choppy from here forward.  I tend to think we will have smooth sailing into the near future, but what do I know?   

For context:

The Sahm Rule says that if the unemployment rate, based on a three-month average, is a half percentage point above its lowest point over the previous 12 months, the economy has tipped into a recession.

Read this article that suggested that the difference between this instance of the Sahm Rule and one's prior is that this tick up in unemployment is due more to new entries into the labor market and not because of job losses.

https://www.morningstar.com/news/marketwatch/20240822260/deep-dive-into-unemployment-rate-shows-why-this-spike-is-unique

So what this may mean is that inflation is pushing more people who weren't working into the job market, and with higher interest rates causing companies to take a more cautious approach to hiring, they just haven't been able to find jobs yet.

[Hards Alumni]

that's quite the revision...original numbers coming out last month sure sounded good and was touted as it should have been, BUT i doubt the revision will even be known by many except those who follow these types of things.  i can't believe this number wasn't baked in a little bit as the people "in the know" know what's real

hopefully the fed will do the right thing to try to balance a potentially capsizing economy.  i am grateful mr market has been as stout as it has.  not sure what affect a real "recession" would have as the numbers are the numbers

The revision down of 818k jobs was major news on every outlet.