Investing Thread

[tower912]

Yes.

[SoCalEagle]

From what I see it's about 50M jobs for one party and only 1M for the other. That can't be right.

[MU Fan in Connecticut]

From what I see it's about 50M jobs for one party and only 1M for the other. That can't be right.

It's been repeatedly reviewed and it checks out.  Your statement is correct.

[TSmith34, Inc.]

From what I see it's about 50M jobs for one party and only 1M for the other. That can't be right.

Gosh, how could that even be possible?

[The Sultan]

https://x.com/JimPethokoukis/status/1828449725906829531

James Pethokoukis ⏩⤴️
@JimPethokoukis
via JPMORGAN: "The US stands out as the only large economy in which GDP has risen faster than our estimated 2019 potential growth rate path would have anticipated. ... The US has been deemed exceptional in its ability to generate a complete post-pandemic recovery in the face of large negative supply shocks and substantial monetary tightening."

[jesmu84]

https://x.com/JimPethokoukis/status/1828449725906829531

James Pethokoukis ⏩⤴️
@JimPethokoukis
via JPMORGAN: "The US stands out as the only large economy in which GDP has risen faster than our estimated 2019 potential growth rate path would have anticipated. ... The US has been deemed exceptional in its ability to generate a complete post-pandemic recovery in the face of large negative supply shocks and substantial monetary tightening."

Did anyone tell them about the $2000 stim checks that ruined the economy?

[Hards Alumni]

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/recession-forecasts-have-been-wrong-for-years-heres-why-a-perfect-indicator-doesnt-exist-090047128.html

[MU82]

Welcome to Good News Thursday:

++ Q2 GDP revised higher to 3% (from 2.8%)

++ Jobless claims remain steady

++ 30-year mortgage rate falls to 16-month low (6.44%), with significant more to come thanks to pending Fed rate reductions

++ Recession nowhere in sight

[MU82]

August is historically the worst month for the stock market. This one has had big upward and downward swings, but ended with the S&P 500 up 2.3%. And it closed on a high, as indicated by my previous post.

Semi-Related:

I just read an article from Fidelity stating that they house nearly 1 million IRAs and/or 401ks holding $1 million or more. That was pretty surprising: Nearly 1 million millionaires at Fidelity alone. There must be at least that many at Vanguard, a larger company. Plus there are so many other large investment companies, from BlackRock to T. Rowe Price to Schwab, etc. And those don't even include regular (non-retirement) accounts, houses and other holdings. Add it all up, and we're probably talking about tens of million American millionaires.

Now, a million bucks isn't what it used to be, and a lot of it is tied up in not-easily-accessible assets such as 401ks and housing. But I still was pretty amazed to see the Fidelity figures and to extrapolate it over the populace.

The economy is far from perfect, and there could be 100 million (or more) Americans who live paycheck-to-paycheck or have it rough in some other way. But there also are a lot of success stories, including those starring "regular" folks many of us probably would be surprised by - neighbors, friends and family members sitting on 7-figure accounts.

[SoCalEagle]

August is historically the worst month for the stock market. This one has had big upward and downward swings, but ended with the S&P 500 up 2.3%. And it closed on a high, as indicated by my previous post.

Semi-Related:

I just read an article from Fidelity stating that they house nearly 1 million IRAs and/or 401ks holding $1 million or more. That was pretty surprising: Nearly 1 million millionaires at Fidelity alone. There must be at least that many at Vanguard, a larger company. Plus there are so many other large investment companies, from BlackRock to T. Rowe Price to Schwab, etc. And those don't even include regular (non-retirement) accounts, houses and other holdings. Add it all up, and we're probably talking about tens of million American millionaires.

Now, a million bucks isn't what it used to be, and a lot of it is tied up in not-easily-accessible assets such as 401ks and housing. But I still was pretty amazed to see the Fidelity figures and to extrapolate it over the populace.

The economy is far from perfect, and there could be 100 million (or more) Americans who live paycheck-to-paycheck or have it rough in some other way. But there also are a lot of success stories, including those starring "regular" folks many of us probably would be surprised by - neighbors, friends and family members sitting on 7-figure accounts.

I think I saw the same article and I gotta say I'm not surprised by the current stats regarding the number of millionaires with Fidelity accounts.  That can only happen because the U.S. economy is so strong.  Not to nitpick your post, but the economy right now is pretty much as close to perfect as we have seen it since the 90s under Bill Clinton.  With the absence of stimulus from the Fed, our GDP is expanding at rate in excess of 3%, inflation is currently running at about 2.5%, and the unemployment rate is sub 4.4%.  All of this is happening while the Fed is trying to SLOW the economy.  That's right, our Government is actively trying to slow things down, but we keep expanding at a level above what we have seen in the last 25 years when the Government was trying to STIMULATE the economy.  The real story, as I see it, is that the strength of our economy is the envy of the world and it is all due to the U.S. consumer (spending is outpacing our historical norms).  Maybe those commentators I have heard are right: It's the Roaring 20s all over again - people spending more to enjoy life after being knocked sideways due to a pandemic? 

[Jockey]

The real story, as I see it, is that the strength of our economy is the envy of the world and it is all due to the U.S. consumer (spending is outpacing our historical norms).  Maybe those commentators I have heard are right: It's the Roaring 20s all over again - people spending more to enjoy life after being knocked sideways due to a pandemic?

I said the same thing to a friend a couple weeks ago. Then joked that I hoped it was the early 20s - not 1927 or 1928.

[Herman Cain]

I think I saw the same article and I gotta say I'm not surprised by the current stats regarding the number of millionaires with Fidelity accounts.  That can only happen because the U.S. economy is so strong.  Not to nitpick your post, but the economy right now is pretty much as close to perfect as we have seen it since the 90s under Bill Clinton.  With the absence of stimulus from the Fed, our GDP is expanding at rate in excess of 3%, inflation is currently running at about 2.5%, and the unemployment rate is sub 4.4%.  All of this is happening while the Fed is trying to SLOW the economy.  That's right, our Government is actively trying to slow things down, but we keep expanding at a level above what we have seen in the last 25 years when the Government was trying to STIMULATE the economy.  The real story, as I see it, is that the strength of our economy is the envy of the world and it is all due to the U.S. consumer (spending is outpacing our historical norms).  Maybe those commentators I have heard are right: It's the Roaring 20s all over again - people spending more to enjoy life after being knocked sideways due to a pandemic?

Our company serves as an economic laboratory of sorts. We have activity on every state and see the economy real time in our customer orders and their commentary about operations  .  Generally speaking , consumers are challenged given the cumulative impact of inflation. Capital Expenditures  are slowing . Additionally, it has become much easier to find employees , which in the immediate short run is helpful.However, job searches are taking longer which dampens spending.

We see no evidence of real economic growth. However , no evidence of contraction either.

[Jockey]

We see no evidence of real economic growth.

The evidence might be good evidence of economic growth.

[The Sultan]

We see no evidence of real economic growth.

LOL

[MU82]

I think I saw the same article and I gotta say I'm not surprised by the current stats regarding the number of millionaires with Fidelity accounts.  That can only happen because the U.S. economy is so strong.  Not to nitpick your post, but the economy right now is pretty much as close to perfect as we have seen it since the 90s under Bill Clinton.  With the absence of stimulus from the Fed, our GDP is expanding at rate in excess of 3%, inflation is currently running at about 2.5%, and the unemployment rate is sub 4.4%.  All of this is happening while the Fed is trying to SLOW the economy.  That's right, our Government is actively trying to slow things down, but we keep expanding at a level above what we have seen in the last 25 years when the Government was trying to STIMULATE the economy.  The real story, as I see it, is that the strength of our economy is the envy of the world and it is all due to the U.S. consumer (spending is outpacing our historical norms).  Maybe those commentators I have heard are right: It's the Roaring 20s all over again - people spending more to enjoy life after being knocked sideways due to a pandemic?

Lots of common sense here. It's certainly possible that I might have undersold the strength of the U.S. economy.

[SoCalEagle]

82, I often overlook the strength of the economy, too.  it's probably because it's election season and one party constantly harps on inflation.  That's last year's story and I think most Americans are starting to realize that. 

[TSmith34, Inc.]

We see no evidence of real economic growth. However , no evidence of contraction either.

Lunching with Jamie Dimon and posting 20 stories a day from the NY Post really distracts from driving growth I guess.

[Uncle Rico]

Lunching with Jamie Dimon and posting 20 stories a day from the NY Post really distracts from driving growth I guess.

I had dinner with Jamie Dimon and showed him Buffoon Cain's posts and he said they sounded like the guy who stood outside his building yelling at taxi drivers

[Jockey]

Warren Buffett says he doesn't do dinners with Dimon anymore cuz there' some clown that always has his nose up against the window no matter what restaurant they do.

[MU Fan in Connecticut]

Maybe this is the for the Economy Thread 2.0, but things really took off in August. 

I switched jobs to my competitor 3 months ago.  My old company did me a favor by announcing they're closing by the end of the year.  I'm still talking with all the same customers for the most part.  My new company saw the same steady, but slower "too much inventory from COVID" business.  Several customers dropped big orders this month.  My new boss, was relieved and said, "it's nice to see them finally drop big orders again."

[MU82]

Maybe this is the for the Economy Thread 2.0, but things really took off in August. 

I switched jobs to my competitor 3 months ago.  My old company did me a favor by announcing they're closing by the end of the year.  I'm still talking with all the same customers for the most part.  My new company saw the same steady, but slower "too much inventory from COVID" business.  Several customers dropped big orders this month.  My new boss, was relieved and said, "it's nice to see them finally drop big orders again."

Congrats on the new job, MUFiC.

Also ... correction on my earlier post ... September is actually historically the worst-performing month for the market. August is up there (or down there), too.

[MU82]

Musk's Twitter investors have lost billions in value

https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2024/09/01/musk-twitter-investors-underwater/?

Since late last year, Fidelity has consistently valued the X stake in one of its funds 70 percent below the purchase price, a drop in valuation first reported by Axios. Figures released Friday show that Fidelity now values that stake about 72 percent lower than when Musk took over X, taking its overall portion of the company from a valuation of around $316 million to $88 million.

Based on a Washington Post analysis using Fidelity's estimates, the eight largest initial investments that were reported to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission or otherwise publicly disclosed are worth about $5 billion less than when Musk bought X. His and his partners' overall stake has shed $24 billion in value — a vaporization of wealth that has little parallel outside the realm of economic or industry-specific crashes, or devastating corporate scandals.

[Shaka Shart]

Warren Buffett says he doesn't do dinners with Dimon anymore cuz there' some clown that always has his nose up against the window no matter what restaurant they do.

HC has a name you know

[Jockey]

HC has a name you know

"Dead Covid denier"?

[Hards Alumni]

Price at time of comment 107.27
Today's price 128.56

Dammit.

Today's price 106.21 plus a probable lawsuit

Whew.