Investing Thread

[Goose]

21 Jump

Fluff is enjoying pointing out that I do not trust the government economic reports to be 100% accurate and happy he finds it amusing. My take, the numbers are not always accurate for a number of reasons and that is from both R and D side of the aisle. I guess the best way to sum my feelings is that the numbers do not accurately reflect 300+ million Americans.

There is no guy that wants a robust economy for everyone than I do. That being said, I truthfully have no idea how many Americans are keeping their head above water currently. IMO, the current state of the economy is fragile, and it is not a time a to be taking crazy risks. I believe cheap money created a very big potential risk to the system.

Again, my point in not trusting numbers has nothing to do with who is POTUS at the moment. I agree, the truth is likely somewhere in the middle.

[MuggsyB]

21 Jump

Fluff is enjoying pointing out that I do not trust the government economic reports to be 100% accurate and happy he finds it amusing. My take, the numbers are not always accurate for a number of reasons and that is from both R and D side of the aisle. I guess the best way to sum my feelings is that the numbers do not accurately reflect 300+ million Americans.

There is no guy that wants a robust economy for everyone than I do. That being said, I truthfully have no idea how many Americans are keeping their head above water currently. IMO, the current state of the economy is fragile, and it is not a time a to be taking crazy risks. I believe cheap money created a very big potential risk to the system.

Again, my point in not trusting numbers has nothing to do with who is POTUS at the moment. I agree, the truth is likely somewhere in the middle.

Yes.  As you rightly point out Goose people know whether things cost more or if things are going down significantly.  The inflation numbers do not correlate with people's current cost of living and most of us refuse to be hoodwinked. 

[ZiggysFryBoy]

21 Jump

Nobel Prize in Economics winner Fluff is enjoying pointing out that I do not trust the government economic reports to be 100% accurate and happy he finds it amusing. My take, the numbers are not always accurate for a number of reasons and that is from both R and D side of the aisle. I guess the best way to sum my feelings is that the numbers do not accurately reflect 300+ million Americans.

There is no guy that wants a robust economy for everyone than I do. That being said, I truthfully have no idea how many Americans are keeping their head above water currently. IMO, the current state of the economy is fragile, and it is not a time a to be taking crazy risks. I believe cheap money created a very big potential risk to the system.

Again, my point in not trusting numbers has nothing to do with who is POTUS at the moment. I agree, the truth is likely somewhere in the middle.

FIFY

[SoCalEagle]

21 Jump

Fluff is enjoying pointing out that I do not trust the government economic reports to be 100% accurate and happy he finds it amusing. My take, the numbers are not always accurate for a number of reasons and that is from both R and D side of the aisle. I guess the best way to sum my feelings is that the numbers do not accurately reflect 300+ million Americans.

There is no guy that wants a robust economy for everyone than I do. That being said, I truthfully have no idea how many Americans are keeping their head above water currently. IMO, the current state of the economy is fragile, and it is not a time a to be taking crazy risks. I believe cheap money created a very big potential risk to the system.

Again, my point in not trusting numbers has nothing to do with who is POTUS at the moment. I agree, the truth is likely somewhere in the middle.

Sorry Goose, but you're just way off here.  The R's have spent the last decade telling you that Government institutions can't be trusted.  Thats's their continued focus, don't trust Government so you are unable to judge them.  Oh, unemployment was X?  Maybe.  You mean inflation is Y?  Could be, but maybe it's not.  You are playing right into their hands, if no data can be trusted, then they can't be held accountable when they perform poorly.  Kinda like they didn't lose the election because there were "anomalies." 

Facts are facts, the unemployment rate, inflation, GDP is all measured and reported.  Sometimes you may like it, sometimes not, but the numbers are what they are.  And, you're wrong that both sides are telling you that the numbers are unreliable.  One side has been pounding the "deep state lies" for years now, and you know better than to continue to buy into the BS. 

[Pakuni]

Sorry Goose, but you're just way off here.  The R's have spent the last decade telling you that Government institutions can't be trusted.  Thats's their continued focus, don't trust Government so you are unable to judge them.  Oh, unemployment was X?  Maybe.  You mean inflation is Y?  Could be, but maybe it's not.  You are playing right into their hands, if no data can be trusted, then they can't be held accountable when they perform poorly.  Kinda like they didn't lose the election because there were "anomalies." 

Facts are facts, the unemployment rate, inflation, GDP is all measured and reported.  Sometimes you may like it, sometimes not, but the numbers are what they are.  And, you're wrong that both sides are telling you that the numbers are unreliable.  One side has been pounding the "deep state lies" for years now, and you know better than to continue to buy into the BS.

"Alternative facts."

[The Sultan]

21 Jump

Fluff is enjoying pointing out that I do not trust the government economic reports to be 100% accurate and happy he finds it amusing. My take, the numbers are not always accurate for a number of reasons and that is from both R and D side of the aisle. I guess the best way to sum my feelings is that the numbers do not accurately reflect 300+ million Americans.

There is no guy that wants a robust economy for everyone than I do. That being said, I truthfully have no idea how many Americans are keeping their head above water currently. IMO, the current state of the economy is fragile, and it is not a time a to be taking crazy risks. I believe cheap money created a very big potential risk to the system.

The objective data that is released by the BEA has nothing to do with your subjective ideas that the economy is fragile and its not a time to be taking risks. Both can actually be true!

But if we've gotten to the point where you don't trust the actual data, I don't know what to tell you.

[ZiggysFryBoy]

And no government agency has ever revised down their monthly/quarterly numbers in the history of this country.

Baaaaa.  Baaaaa.

[SoCalEagle]

And no government agency has ever revised down their monthly/quarterly numbers in the history of this country.

Baaaaa.  Baaaaa.

Really, that's the best you can do? 

[The Sultan]

And no government agency has ever revised down their monthly/quarterly numbers in the history of this country.

Baaaaa.  Baaaaa.

Or up too.

And Goose wasn't talking about simple revisions - but you know that.

[The Lens]

This. Both sides can use fuzzy math. My informal survey. 60% of the people care about:
Do they have a job
What are the price of groceries and gas
Can I get a mortgage, apartment
Can my kids get a job/pay for college

20% far right
20% far left-each of these sides like to argue for the sake of argument

Pollsters are seeing a lot of "the economy is bad but I'm doing ok" and they tend to feel this is because news one chooses to consume continues to be negative but unemployment is low, jobs are available so individuals reporting on their own circumstances are positive.

I'm also amazed at how little context people put in these reports.  Compare our inflation and our recovery to other G7 nations and you see the US leading the way back.  Sure we could be better but judged against our peers were doing pretty good.  It's a global economy. 

[21Jumpstreet]

Facts are facts, the unemployment rate, inflation, GDP is all measured and reported.  Sometimes you may like it, sometimes not, but the numbers are what they are.  And, you're wrong that both sides are telling you that the numbers are unreliable.  One side has been pounding the "deep state lies" for years now, and you know better than to continue to buy into the BS.

I'm not so sure about this. While I don't disagree that one beats one dead horse and one side beats another, the facts that are reported are certainly within a framework. Possibly even in an ever changing one. For example, inflation is down. Sure from six months ago, but certainly not from 16. One could argue the fact that the dollar is hyper inflated and any adjustment down is still within a crazy inflated dollar range. So, yeah, inflation is down, I suppose.

Certain data doesn't take into account certain segments of the economy. To me, trying to follow FED reports, inflation reports, etc., has become a game the talking heads like to play. The dollar is worth less, people are spending more, people are making more, some industries can't find workers, some industries are laying off tens of thousands.

Obviously, I am no expert and was raised to think one way and have drastically evolved from that way of thinking. I have no doubt you know substantially more than I do about monetary policy, I'm speaking more to the fact are facts statement as we know how well that one works with people in a debate.

[ZiggysFryBoy]

Really, that's the best you can do?

Tell me what was wrong about my statement.

[MU82]

This is the Investing thread. How is each person's view of the economy affecting his or her investing choices?

For me, little if at all. I don't pay much attention to macro situations. I try to own pieces of high-quality businesses no matter what kind of noise there is.

So yeah, our portfolio suffered paper "losses" in 2001-02, 2008-09, 2020, etc. But being a long-term investor who doesn't pretend to be able to time the market, I stayed invested and actually invested more at lower prices ... and our portfolio recovered and then some.

I'm at a bit of a different life stage now so I have a little more in cash equivalents than I did 5 and 10 and 20 years ago, but that's not because I'm trying to make guesses about recessions or corrections.

"Far more money has been lost by investors preparing for corrections or trying to anticipate corrections than has been lost in corrections themselves." - Peter Lynch.

[JWags85]

I'm not so sure about this. While I don't disagree that one beats one dead horse and one side beats another, the facts that are reported are certainly within a framework. Possibly even in an ever changing one. For example, inflation is down. Sure from six months ago, but certainly not from 16. One could argue the fact that the dollar is hyper inflated and any adjustment down is still within a crazy inflated dollar range. So, yeah, inflation is down, I suppose.

Certain data doesn't take into account certain segments of the economy. To me, trying to follow FED reports, inflation reports, etc., has become a game the talking heads like to play. The dollar is worth less, people are spending more, people are making more, some industries can't find workers, some industries are laying off tens of thousands.

Obviously, I am no expert and was raised to think one way and have drastically evolved from that way of thinking. I have no doubt you know substantially more than I do about monetary policy, I'm speaking more to the fact are facts statement as we know how well that one works with people in a debate.

I was gonna quote Sultan to say something in this frame of thought, but this is a better building point.

I don't necessarily think numbers are fudged as Goose was alluding to, but I definitely don't think simple reporting of certain economic indicators or statistics are indicative of actual progress or regression, much less the narrative they are packaged with. 

Market reaction isn't bible, but there is a reason you often see a snap reaction to big economic reactions (as algos scrape headlines for key words) but then as traders and analysts actually look at the report and comp it next to other economic factors, the reaction is either much more muted, or completely reversed.

I don't trust the picture painted by either party in control as it pertains to economic data, not that I think its wrong, but like 21 said, its all a game, and you can show one number to be BRILLIANT even while 3 others are dismal or concerning.  Sometimes the picture is totally correct, regardless of the source, but I like to (and I wish others would) actually read into and understand the implications and bigger picture before clapping like a seal cause "my team did something good" or throwing my hat cause the bad guys claim the numbers are a win.

[MuggsyB]

I was gonna quote Sultan to say something in this frame of thought, but this is a better building point.

I don't necessarily think numbers are fudged as Goose was alluding to, but I definitely don't think simple reporting of certain economic indicators or statistics are indicative of actual progress or regression, much less the narrative they are packaged with. 

Market reaction isn't bible, but there is a reason you often see a snap reaction to big economic reactions (as algos scrape headlines for key words) but then as traders and analysts actually look at the report and comp it next to other economic factors, the reaction is either much more muted, or completely reversed.

I don't trust the picture painted by either party in control as it pertains to economic data, not that I think its wrong, but like 21 said, its all a game, and you can show one number to be BRILLIANT even while 3 others are dismal or concerning.  Sometimes the picture is totally correct, regardless of the source, but I like to (and I wish others would) actually read into and understand the implications and bigger picture before clapping like a seal cause "my team did something good" or throwing my hat cause the bad guys claim the numbers are a win.

I would say that short-tern economic success isn't about party policies. 

[TSmith34, Inc.]

Tell me what was wrong about my statement.

Your statement had nothing to do with Goose's claim.

The government revises numbers on a monthly basis as a matter of course as additional data comes in.

Goose's claim is that the government cooks the books for nefarious purposes and compared the U.S. government to the Chinese government. 

[jesmu84]

I would say say that short-tern economic success isn't about party policies.

Correct.

That's the basis for shareholder capitalism

[ZiggysFryBoy]

Your statement had nothing to do with Goose's claim.

The government revises numbers on a monthly basis as a matter of course as additional data comes in.

Goose's claim is that the government cooks the books for nefarious purposes and compared the U.S. government to the Chinese government.

I was responding to socal, but you be you pigpig.

[TSmith34, Inc.]

Oh my bad, I forgot that social media rule where you can't respond to whoever you choose.

[ZiggysFryBoy]

Oh my bad, I forgot that social media rule where you can't respond to whoever you choose.

🐷🐷

[TSmith34, Inc.]

🐷🐷

You only have yourself to blame for looking like an idiot.

[ZiggysFryBoy]

You only have yourself to blame for looking like an idiot.

🐷🐷

[MU82]

Mr. Market's doing some bargain-bin shopping this morning.

T +7.4%
VZ +4.8%
CVS +2.5%
QCOM +2.4%
DIS +1.7%

Among other beaten-down names.

[Goose]

Smith

That is not what I said. If you think for one second that I am comparing the USA to China you have bumped your hard. You really are a foul ball.

[The Sultan]

Smith

That is not what I said. If you think for one second that I am comparing the USA to China you have bumped your hard. You really are a foul ball.

"I think the government economic numbers that are reported are about as believable as the economic numbers that China reports." - Goose