Investing Thread

[TSmith34, Inc.]

Smith

That is not what I said. If you think for one second that I am comparing the USA to China you have bumped your hard. You really are a foul ball.

Somebody did indeed "bumped your hard".

[TSmith34, Inc.]

🐷🐷

Your best work

[tower912]

Bumping your hard can be either good or bad.

[Pakuni]

Bumping your hard can be either good or bad.

Bumping his hard is why Ziggy rides public transportation at rush hour.

[tower912]

Or was banned from doing so.

[Hards Alumni]

Sorry Goose, but you're just way off here.  The R's have spent the last decade telling you that Government institutions can't be trusted.  Thats's their continued focus, don't trust Government so you are unable to judge them.  Oh, unemployment was X?  Maybe.  You mean inflation is Y?  Could be, but maybe it's not.  You are playing right into their hands, if no data can be trusted, then they can't be held accountable when they perform poorly.  Kinda like they didn't lose the election because there were "anomalies." 

Facts are facts, the unemployment rate, inflation, GDP is all measured and reported.  Sometimes you may like it, sometimes not, but the numbers are what they are.  And, you're wrong that both sides are telling you that the numbers are unreliable.  One side has been pounding the "deep state lies" for years now, and you know better than to continue to buy into the BS.

They've been doing that since Ronald Reagan.   Far more than the last decade.  "I'm from the government, and I'm here to help".

[SoCalEagle]

Yeah, I guess MTG, while trying to bash Dems, said it best: (I'm paraphrasing) You know those crazy Dems are trying to build infrastructure, provide healthcare to the poor, and spend money on bringing manufacturing back to the US to provide better paying jobs for the middle class. 

Uh, yes please. 

[SoCalEagle]

Back to investing: AAPL hits an all time high today on news of Apple GPT. 

Carry on. 

[tower912]

Lots of positive movement based on earnings reports.

[Uncle Rico]

Back to investing: AAPL hits an all time high today on news of Apple GPT. 

Carry on.

Who saw that coming?

[TSmith34, Inc.]

I'd like the Fed not to raise interest rates at the next meeting, though the market already has it priced in. The trajectory of inflation is such that they are going to hit their 2% target, or be in the near vicinity, without additional raises. And if the next 1-2 months doesn't bear that out, then they can act. For now, stop smashing what you've already killed.

They were late to act, now I think they are going to be late to stop acting.

[MU82]

I'd like the Fed not to raise interest rates at the next meeting, though the market already has it priced in. The trajectory of inflation is such that they are going to hit their 2% target, or be in the near vicinity, without additional raises. And if the next 1-2 months doesn't bear that out, then they can act. For now, stop smashing what you've already killed.

They were late to act, now I think they are going to be late to stop acting.

Based on everything I'm reading, a .25 raise is likely. As long as the accompanying comments aren't too hawkish, I think Mr. Market actually will like that. If they signal a pause, or maybe even a plan to not do any more raises unless conditions warrant (kind of as you are saying), the market probably will finish strongly this year unless there is a black swan event of some kind.

Back to investing: AAPL hits an all time high today on news of Apple GPT. 

Carry on. 

Who saw that coming?

[rocket surgeon]

  NVDA to the moon baby!!  when this thing hit 112 last fall was grabbing with both hands

[MU82]

NFLX and TSLA down pretty big premarket. From Seeking Alpha's daily digest:

Netflix (NFLX) dropped over 8% AH on Wednesday on mixed earnings report and soft revenue guidance despite a ramp-up in new subscribers and a company pivot going according to plan. At the same time, Netflix may be in a better position than traditional studios in terms of the disruptive double strike in Hollywood, given different production timelines and a long content pipeline. With regards to its account-sharing plans, Netflix said the cancel reaction was low and it's seeing "healthy" conversion of borrower households into full-paying memberships.

Traders were also disenchanted with Tesla (TSLA) following Q2 results, though it took some time to drive in a specific direction. Shares were initially unchanged after the EV maker's numbers topped estimates, but the stock fell 4% after CEO Elon Musk hinted at more price cuts if market conditions become unstable. He also referenced a slight decrease in Q3 production and did not give a specific timeline on Cybertruck's launch, though Tesla is in early talks with other automakers to license full self-driving software, which could boost its margins.

Meanwhile, a nice report this morning from JNJ. Shares are fighting to trade in positive territory despite the negative market sentiment caused by the NFLX and TSLA reports.

Disclosure: I am long JNJ and TSLA, no stake in NFLX.

EDIT: Now here's an analyst who's really down on Elon's company. I think (and sure hope) he's wrong, but wow ...

After Tesla's mixed second quarter, which featured a bad whiff on gross profit margin thanks to a steady drumbeat of price cuts, one Wall Street analyst is coming out blasting on the the EV maker's stock.

"I still think Tesla is egregiously overvalued right now," Roth Capital Partners Tesla bear Craig Irwin said on Yahoo Finance Live (video above).

Coming into the earnings release late Wednesday, Irwin had an $85 price target on Tesla, suggesting downside potential of a whopping 71%.

Tesla shares fell 3% to $281.55 in pre-market trading on Thursday. The company's ticker page was the most active on the Yahoo Finance platform.

The analyst didn't rule out slashing his price target further owing to Tesla's various profit challenges — ranging from price cuts to increased investments in AI software and Cybertruck production.

Irwin added: "We're very bearish on Tesla. We think people are much better off looking at many of the other names either in conventional auto manufacturers or some of the emerging players as opportunities for investment."

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/tesla-stock-is-worth-only-85-after-gross-margin-whiff-analyst-says-wall-street-reacts-085541588.html

[Coleman]

I'd like the Fed not to raise interest rates at the next meeting, though the market already has it priced in. The trajectory of inflation is such that they are going to hit their 2% target, or be in the near vicinity, without additional raises. And if the next 1-2 months doesn't bear that out, then they can act. For now, stop smashing what you've already killed.

They were late to act, now I think they are going to be late to stop acting.

I agree with this. Skip another hike. You can always hike it the next time around.

[jesmu84]

Didn't know where else to put:

[Skatastrophy]

Didn't know where else to put:

Meh, we're well out of the woods unless WW3 kicks off. Some people just hate being wrong. Inflation is back to normal-ish. CPI YoY is back to normal. Rates are finally back to where they should be, meaning that the next time there's deflation we have some ammo to fix it instead of that absolutely wild 0 rate environment we experienced.

Like usual, lots of people have opinions about things they don't understand. Like this whole thread. And me.

[Coleman]

Meh, we're well out of the woods unless WW3 kicks off. Some people just hate being wrong. Inflation is back to normal-ish. CPI YoY is back to normal. Rates are finally back to where they should be, meaning that the next time there's deflation we have some ammo to fix it instead of that absolutely wild 0 rate environment we experienced.

Like usual, lots of people have opinions about things they don't understand. Like this whole thread. And me.

Deflation, or more likely, a recession

[The Sultan]

Goose, to be fair, I think this example is what you are talking about when you think the economy is "fragile."

https://twitter.com/JStein_WaPo/status/1682120877515714562?s=20

[Hards Alumni]

Goose, to be fair, I think this example is what you are talking about when you think the economy is "fragile."

https://twitter.com/JStein_WaPo/status/1682120877515714562?s=20

She's got two kids by the time she is 22...  She's going to be poor for a while.  Kids are expensive.

[Golden Avalanche]

Goose, to be fair, I think this example is what you are talking about when you think the economy is "fragile."

https://twitter.com/JStein_WaPo/status/1682120877515714562?s=20

This is a success story.

[The Sultan]

This is a success story.

I agree. But she doesn't feel that way.

[MU82]

Goldman Sachs on why stock prices have been going up even in a rising-rate environment:

Earnings look to have bottomed - Corporate profitability has been equally as important as real rates in explaining index valuations. Accordingly, along with rising rates, declining profitability helped explain some of the P/E compression in 2022. In recent quarters, however, S&P 500 earnings appear to have bottomed, and we expect an acceleration to 5% EPS growth in 2024.

Also, Goldman said, while index P/E ratios look high ...

The seven largest stocks in the S&P 500 (Apple (AAPL), Microsoft (MSFT), Amazon (AMZN), Alphabet (GOOGL) (GOOG), Nvidia (NVDA), Meta (META), Tesla (TSLA)) account for 28% of the market cap and have contributed 12 pp of the index's 19% YTD total return. In aggregate, these stocks trade at an NTM P/E of 32x vs. 20x for the aggregate index. The remaining 493 firms trade at 17x. In part due to expectations that AI will be a secular tailwind for sales and margins, the P/E multiple of the top seven stocks has risen by 2 turns since the start of April despite higher rates.

[MuggsyB]

I have to say that I honestly have no idea what the actual truth about our economy is presently.  I have read various "leading" economists in several sources that have said one thing in the last 9 months, "changed their opinion", went back to their original prognostications, and now are taking about either a soft landing or a recession.  I mean they honestly sound no different from Jim Cramer.  All this said we seem to  know that the dollar isn't going as far as it used to but at the same time the consumer spending and GDP have exceeded expectations.  I have several questions:  Do you trust these numbers as facts?  Have economists become more political?  Who do you actually believe?  What exactly will determine Powell not raising interest rates anymore?  Is your cost of living/overall expenses in your community more, less, or about the same as they were say a year ago? 

[Hards Alumni]

I have to say that I honestly have no idea what the actual truth about our economy is presently.  I have read various "leading" economists in several sources that have said one thing in the last 9 months, "changed their opinion", went back to their original prognostications, and now are taking about either a soft landing or a recession.  I mean they honestly sound no different from Jim Cramer.  All this said we seem to  know that the dollar isn't going as far as it used to but at the same time the consumer spending and GDP have exceeded expectations.  I have several questions:  Do you trust these numbers as facts?  Have economists become more political?  Who do you actually believe?  What exactly will determine Powell not raising interest rates anymore?  Is your cost of living/overall expenses in your community more, less, or about the same as they were say a year ago?

I trust the numbers, but not the analysis.  If inflation rises quickly then rates will go up.