Investing Thread

[Coleman]

Does anyone have any good (hopefully free) tools that they use to project retirement balances, including the saving phase and then drawdowns? I am trying to model a few difference scenarios and its a super manual effort.

[Skatastrophy]

Does anyone have any good (hopefully free) tools that they use to project retirement balances, including the saving phase and then drawdowns? I am trying to model a few difference scenarios and its a super manual effort.

Here's an interesting, but clunky, tool to forecast potential future outcomes.

https://firecalc.com/

You start in the "Start Here" form on the first tab, and then work through the tabs. It will take some playing-with to feel confident about your inputs and understand the outputs, but 'calculating' the potential future is all about percentages.

The output is something like this, due to Monte Carlo analysis it doesn't give you a suspected future balance but instead a balance based on past performance. Less precise than you asked for, more potentially accurate.

I'm not a finance pro, and past performance is not indicative of future results. If I knew what I was doing and could predict the future I wouldn't be talking to all of you about it on scoop.

[Coleman]

Here's an interesting, but clunky, tool to forecast potential future outcomes.

https://firecalc.com/

You start in the "Start Here" form on the first tab, and then work through the tabs. It will take some playing-with to feel confident about your inputs and understand the outputs, but 'calculating' the potential future is all about percentages.

The output is something like this, due to Monte Carlo analysis it doesn't give you a suspected future balance but instead a balance based on past performance. Less precise than you asked for, more potentially accurate.

I'm not a finance pro, and past performance is not indicative of future results. If I knew what I was doing and could predict the future I wouldn't be talking to all of you about it on scoop.

Thanks much!

[forgetful]

Here's an interesting, but clunky, tool to forecast potential future outcomes.

https://firecalc.com/

You start in the "Start Here" form on the first tab, and then work through the tabs. It will take some playing-with to feel confident about your inputs and understand the outputs, but 'calculating' the potential future is all about percentages.

The output is something like this, due to Monte Carlo analysis it doesn't give you a suspected future balance but instead a balance based on past performance. Less precise than you asked for, more potentially accurate.

I'm not a finance pro, and past performance is not indicative of future results. If I knew what I was doing and could predict the future I wouldn't be talking to all of you about it on scoop.

The Monte Carlo analysis is the same thing essentially every professional advisor uses, they will then report what percent of runs reach your target goals, and mean balances etc.

Different companies will claim their inputs to the Monte Carlo simulation are better/more accurate, but for a general assessment, I'm pretty sure the link you provided is reasonable.

[SoCalEagle]

RIVN popped almost 10% today. I didn't see that coming.  I was thinking of buying had it dropped into the high 11s, low 12s.  That's probably not very likely now. 

Anyone own RIVN or thinking of buying?

[MU82]

Interesting news from Toyota, which claims to have made a breakthrough that will allow it to halve the weight, size and cost of batteries.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/jul/04/toyota-claims-battery-breakthrough-electric-cars?campaign_id=4&emc=edit_dk_20230705&instance_id=96748&nl=dealbook

The world’s second largest carmaker was already pursuing a plan to roll out cars with advanced solid-state batteries, which offer benefits compared with liquid-based batteries, by 2025.

On Tuesday, the Japanese company said it had simplified production of the material used to make them, hailing the discovery as a significant leap forward that could dramatically cut charging times and increase driving range.

“For both our liquid and our solid-state batteries, we are aiming to drastically change the situation where current batteries are too big, heavy and expensive,” said Keiji Kaita, president of the Japanese auto firm’s research and development centre for carbon neutrality. “In terms of potential, we will aim to halve all of these factors.”

David Bailey, a professor of business economics at the University of Birmingham, said that if Toyota’s claims were founded, it could be a landmark moment for the future of electric cars.

“Often there are breakthroughs at the prototype stage but then scaling it up is difficult,” he said. “If it is a genuine breakthrough it could be a gamechanger, very much the holy grail of battery vehicles.”

[MuggsyB]

Is it danger time MU82?  I just mean in general for the market. 

[MU82]

Is it danger time MU82?  I just mean in general for the market. 

I have no earthly idea.

I have a little more cash and cash alternatives than usual, but I'm still mostly invested. But again, I don't have a direct line to Mr. Market.

[Skatastrophy]

Batteries have been the same for decades. Anyone that significantly improves the size/weight of batteries will be the biggest company in the world in short order (hyperbole, but not hyperbole).

[tower912]

700+ mile range, 10 minute recharging is the holy grail.

[Hards Alumni]

Batteries have been the same for decades. Anyone that significantly improves the size/weight of batteries will be the biggest company in the world in short order (hyperbole, but not hyperbole).

Yep.

Articles and claims like Toyota's recent one come out once a month.  They all sound like great ideas until they don't scale or are prohibitively expensive.

[MU82]

Yep.

Articles and claims like Toyota's recent one come out once a month.  They all sound like great ideas until they don't scale or are prohibitively expensive.

I'm also wary of Toyota's pronouncement, as well as lots of other claims that get made in this realm.

I mean, we're STILL waiting on the F150 Lightning to make major inroads and for the Tesla Cybertruck to show up at all, and both have been heavily touted for years.

Of course, if Toyota actually can pull this off, it would be huge for them and the entire industry. The only reason I give Toyota some slack is that they were the first to come out with a popular, mass-produced and -marketed hybrid -- one certainly can't say the Prius was anything but a major success. But yes, we've been waiting ever since for the company's big EV hit.

Mr. Market seems a bit skeptical, too -- TM is up less than 1% today.

[tower912]

A lot of companies have claimed to have solved the problem of solid state batteries. None are yet on the road.  I believe the battery technology will get there.   And then will get better, still.

[tower912]

Another half million  jobs added in June.   Stocks down due to fears of FED reaction.

[The Hippie Satan of Hyperbole]

When is the recession starting?

[Lennys Tap]

Another half million  jobs added in June.   Stocks down due to fears of FED reaction.

32.3 trillion dollar debt, soaring interest rates, declining real incomes.

“Celebrate good times, c’mon…..”

[Skatastrophy]

When is the recession starting?

~8 years

[The Hippie Satan of Hyperbole]

32.3 trillion dollar debt, soaring interest rates, declining real incomes.

“Celebrate good times, c’mon…..”

The hand wringing over the debt has been going on for forty or more years. At what point do we think that it isn’t much of a problem?

Anyway inflation has been decreasing and interest rates have topped off for months now.

But some very smart business people here have predicted a recession (or worse) for some time. So I just want to know when that will be.

[tower912]

Lenny, I would celebrate employment numbers like that if they happened under a president I didn't vote for.   Never had a chance to prove it....

With all these people working, think how few (comparatively) are sitting home collecting welfare.   That is a traditional conservative hot button.

And the deficit is too big.   It has been under Republican administrations, too. 
For every spending plan you criticize, I can come back with a tax cut for the rich.   Both contribute. 



Inflation?  Coming down.   Still not low enough.  Finish cleaning up the supply chain.   Punish greedflation.   Let some more immigrants in.

Bottom line?  Recessions are always possible.   OPEC could go more insane.   The war in Ukraine could expand.    The FED could raise interest  rates too high.   But barring those outside uncontrollables...
Recessions don't usually happen with high demand and near full emplyment.

[TSmith34, Inc.]

32.3 trillion dollar debt, soaring interest rates, declining real incomes.

“Celebrate good times, c’mon…..”

I presume you were very, very upset with the $7T of that accumulated in Trump's short 4 years.

[tower912]

Dick Cheney, 'Reagan proved deficits don't matter'...

[Lennys Tap]

I presume you were very, very upset with the $7T of that accumulated in Trump's short 4 years.

Sure, but until the emergency spending caused by Covid they were lower per year than annual debt increases under Obama. But did Trump spend too much, too? Yeah.

[Skatastrophy]

Sure, but until the emergency spending caused by Covid they were lower per year than annual debt increases under Obama. But did Trump spend too much, too? Yeah.

Obama cut national debt by more that 50%, after W ran it up.

R's always run the debt up during their presidency and then complain when Ds are president, it's kinda funny. Funny that the Ds are obviously, provably the fiscally responsibility ones.

[MU82]

Economists have predicted 100 of the last 1 recessions.

"A recession is imminent" is very common investing-site fodder. I've been active on one large site since 2011, and there have been literally hundreds of articles over the years predicting the next recession to start "soon." There was gonna be one in 2012, in 2014, in 2016, in 2018 and so on and so on.

There finally WAS a recession in the months after the stock market's pandemic plunge -- but it was very short-lived, as tech and consumers came roaring back. It took a cataclysmic event to actually put the economy in recession, but that hasn't stopped predictions that the next one's right around the corner.

After the Fed started raising rates, we were definitely gonna have a recession in 2022. Then by the beginning of 2023. Then by the second half of 2023. Now by the beginning of 2024.

One of these days, there really will be another recession because that's the way economic cycles work, and some gurus will be able to say "I told you so!" They won't mention that they also told us so in 2014 and 2018 and 2021 and another half-dozen times (or more).

Last weekend, my wife and I went to a popular entertainment district that includes a brewery, restaurants and shops. Every one of them had a help-wanted sign up. EVERY SINGLE ONE. The U.S. is still adding hundreds of thousands jobs every month. Unemployment is near an all-time low. Some businesses have had to shorten hours or services because they can't find enough workers. Even the big tech companies that have had layoffs this  year still have workforces that are considerably larger than they were before the pandemic. There is a headline in the Charlotte newspaper every week or two about this company or that company opening up here, ready to employ X number of people. I hope they can find the employees they need.

If this is a recession, it is the only one of its kind ever. If it's the precursor to a recession, it is the only one of its kind ever.

I say all of this knowing that a recession could start this quarter. Or next. Or 10 quarters from now. Or in 10 years. This is why I invest the way I do -quality stocks, long-term, buy-and-holdish, mostly blue-chip dividend names with a little growth thrown in.

They don't ring a bell warning us the market is about to crash, and they don't ring a bell alerting us when the market is at the bottom. And the same is true of a recession.

[The Hippie Satan of Hyperbole]

Sure, but until the emergency spending caused by Covid they were lower per year than annual debt increases under Obama. But did Trump spend too much, too? Yeah.

No. He actually didn't. The United States economic recovery has been stronger than almost all of the worlds because we spent a bunch to make sure we didn't face an enormous economic catastrophe on top of a public health one.

Our GDP is just slightly below where it would have been projected to be, our inflation is in check especially compared to Europe, and our unemployment is microscopic.

https://home.treasury.gov/news/featured-stories/the-us-economic-recovery-in-international-context-2023

Ignore the "Biden Administration" stuff in here and just look at the figures. This started under Trump. Frankly he should take a lot more credit for this (and Operation Warp Speed) than he does, and not focus so damn much on personal vandettas.