Investing Thread

[dgies9156]

Technically, he’s correct.  Expectations on these launches, especially in their infancy at this capacity, should be quite low.  He said 50/50 but I bet his engineers thoughts were much lower.  He has plenty of government cheese to burn through

The launch pad explosion, bad tests and problem launches needing destruction go back to the early days of Cape Canaveral.

The old Vanguard program was a nasty, public failure that enabled the other guys to put a satellite up first.

[forgetful]

SpaceX is visionary.  TSLA's vision for battery technology is visionary.  He can be an a**hat and a petty douche and still be visionary in the way he's looked at things.  If you want to argue he no longer is a visionary, I wouldn't oppose you at all.  But I think its a very fair label for the Musk of the late 90s into the early 2010s as such.

But then again, you're on record as thinking he's not particularly intelligent so its probably an unsellable argument.

I do find it funny, for all his faults, that detractors of Musk are so quick to downplay his achievments by saying he wasn't the one engineering it, or he was just capitalizing on the inventions of others, etc...but the same people likely fawned over the VISIONARY Steve Jobs and what genius he was when he couldn't tell you what 90% of the stuff on a circuit board was and never programmed a line of Apple code.

There is a difference between, being a visionary oneself, and being part of a company that is visionary.

He's not very involved in SpaceX (others on here have said the same thing). Most of the technology/ideas came from others, same with the early days of Tesla (and PayPal for that matter).

That's why I compared him to Edison, Edison was great at taking others great ideas and monopolizing it into a business. What makes Musk so successful, is he is equally adept at that. My personal opinion is that isn't visionary...the people that create those great ideas (like Nikola Tesla) are visionaries. But to get those ideas to mass market they do need someone like an Edison or Musk to leverage the business side.

The above is a bit nitpicky, and is just my personal take on the phrase being "visionary."

I think it comes from me being involved on the research/discovery side, where I have known a decent number of folks that have created medical treatments that have saved countless lives, but the business folks get called the visionaries for raising capital and putting it to market (still extremely important, because a good idea that isn't scaled doesn't help anyone), and usually no one even knows the people who were actually "visionary" in their research/discoveries.

[Skatastrophy]

Nm

[Hards Alumni]

FRC halted.

[WellsstreetWanderer]

There is a difference between, being a visionary oneself, and being part of a company that is visionary.

He's not very involved in SpaceX (others on here have said the same thing). Most of the technology/ideas came from others, same with the early days of Tesla (and PayPal for that matter).
Your experience is similar to mine and I concur

That's why I compared him to Edison, Edison was great at taking others great ideas and monopolizing it into a business. What makes Musk so successful, is he is equally adept at that. My personal opinion is that isn't visionary...the people that create those great ideas (like Nikola Tesla) are visionaries. But to get those ideas to mass market they do need someone like an Edison or Musk to leverage the business side.

The above is a bit nitpicky, and is just my personal take on the phrase being "visionary."

I think it comes from me being involved on the research/discovery side, where I have known a decent number of folks that have created medical treatments that have saved countless lives, but the business folks get called the visionaries for raising capital and putting it to market (still extremely important, because a good idea that isn't scaled doesn't help anyone), and usually no one even knows the people who were actually "visionary" in their research/discoveries.

[MU82]

Great (but sad) John Oliver this past Sunday on the crypto industry’s worst scam artists. As a bonus, he also showed some of Cramer’s “brilliant”  calls over the years.

[MU82]

From Seeking Alpha:

Recession talk is all the rage, but the U.S. economy managed to eke out another gain in Q1, with GDP growth expanding by an annualized rate of 1.1%. That severely missed estimates of 2.0% growth and was slower than the 2.6% growth seen in Q4, but investors were excited nonetheless. In fact, the Dow (DJI) and S&P 500 (SP500) on Thursday notched their biggest gains since January, while the Nasdaq Composite (COMP.IND) scored its best winning session since March.

What's going on? Many analysts and economists had predicted that a recession would already come in Q1, and while the U.S. economy is clearly shifting into a lower gear, the latest data may suggest that it also might be able to escape one in 2023. The numbers also support the case for the Fed to begin pausing its aggressive rate hike cycle, while consumer demand is still holding strong despite lower private inventories and residential fixed investment. Robust job growth has additionally outpaced layoffs, with the unemployment rate still at multi-decade lows, suggesting that Americans might be well-positioned to deal with inflation and economic uncertainty.

Investors cheered the news yesterday, with the S&P 500 Index up 2% and Nasdaq up 2.4%.

[MU Fan in Connecticut]

From Seeking Alpha:

Recession talk is all the rage, but the U.S. economy managed to eke out another gain in Q1, with GDP growth expanding by an annualized rate of 1.1%. That severely missed estimates of 2.0% growth and was slower than the 2.6% growth seen in Q4, but investors were excited nonetheless. In fact, the Dow (DJI) and S&P 500 (SP500) on Thursday notched their biggest gains since January, while the Nasdaq Composite (COMP.IND) scored its best winning session since March.

What's going on? Many analysts and economists had predicted that a recession would already come in Q1, and while the U.S. economy is clearly shifting into a lower gear, the latest data may suggest that it also might be able to escape one in 2023. The numbers also support the case for the Fed to begin pausing its aggressive rate hike cycle, while consumer demand is still holding strong despite lower private inventories and residential fixed investment. Robust job growth has additionally outpaced layoffs, with the unemployment rate still at multi-decade lows, suggesting that Americans might be well-positioned to deal with inflation and economic uncertainty.

Investors cheered the news yesterday, with the S&P 500 Index up 2% and Nasdaq up 2.4%.

I was reading this today.  As I've mentioned before, my company is on the bottom of the food chain in metals and in multiple market types.  I'm seeing a noticeable slow down of orders in the forecast, but I'm told it's because my customers "think" there is going to be a slowdown and they are choosing to burn inventory and keep their inventory lower after burning.  Also, for example, one large international customer 2 months ago had a low forecast for May, but the orders dropped in April for delivery in May are double than what was in the forecast.  Feels more like everyone is waiting for a shoe to drop that isn't dropping. 

[MU82]

I was reading this today.  As I've mentioned before, my company is on the bottom of the food chain in metals and in multiple market types.  I'm seeing a noticeable slow down of orders in the forecast, but I'm told it's because my customers "think" there is going to be a slowdown and they are choosing to burn inventory and keep their inventory lower after burning.  Also, for example, one large international customer 2 months ago had a low forecast for May, but the orders dropped in April for delivery in May are double than what was in the forecast.  Feels more like everyone is waiting for a shoe to drop that isn't dropping.

That's real interesting, MUFiC. As an investor I'm always trying to anticipate things, but that's doubly important for a business owner such as yourself. I hope all goes well for you and your company.

[TSmith34, Inc.]

MU82,

I know we've discussed OHI before, and IIRC you eliminated it from your holdings due to the risk. I cut my allocation by about 40%, very fortuitously in Feb 2020 right before the pandemic. I added back a very small amount in late 2022.

Upside surprise to FFO just reported, but it was quite interesting that this is the most positive I've heard the CEO in at least 3 years, expecting increasing momentum in the next two Q's.

Still an awfully fat dividend, and now a rosier outlook, depending on what your risk outlook is.

[MU82]

MU82,

I know we've discussed OHI before, and IIRC you eliminated it from your holdings due to the risk. I cut my allocation by about 40%, very fortuitously in Feb 2020 right before the pandemic. I added back a very small amount in late 2022.

Upside surprise to FFO just reported, but it was quite interesting that this is the most positive I've heard the CEO in at least 3 years, expecting increasing momentum in the next two Q's.

Still an awfully fat dividend, and now a rosier outlook, depending on what your risk outlook is.

Thanks for the heads-up. I'm not really in the market for health-care REITs, but I do hope OHI performs well for you. The only REITs I own are O and a smallish position in VICI that I'm slowly building on dips.

[MU82]

Employment and wages came in hotter than expected. Should be interesting to see Mr. Market's reaction. Also will be interesting to see if this makes the Fed bump up rates again in June after having signaled a possible pause.

From Seeking Alpha:

U.S. nonfarm payrolls rose 253K in April, beating the 178K consensus and stronger than the revised March figure of 165K (revised from +236K). The report shows that the labor market remains robust even as the Federal Reserve has cranked up interest rates in the past year.

The unemployment rate dipped to 3.4% vs. 3.6% consensus and 3.5% prior.

It was the 13th straight hotter-than-forecast headline jobs gain.

In another sign of the labor market's strength, the average hourly earnings rose 0.5% M/M, more than the consenus for +0.3% and stronger than the 0.3% in March. On a Y/Y basis, average hourly earnings increased 4.4%, exceeding the consensus of 4.2% and +4.2% in March.

Labor force participation rate was unchanged at 62.6%, yet slightly stronger than the 62.5% consensus.

Hiring remained strong in professional and business services (+43K), health care (+40K), leisure and hospitality (+31K), and social assistance (+25K), the Department of Labor said.

Industries in which employment was little changed included: construction, manufacturing, wholesale trade, retail trade, transportation and warehousing, information, and other services.

On Wednesday, the ADP jobs report showed a surge of hiring in April as pay growth slowed.

[MuggsyB]

II  bought a decent chunk of AAPL in the Fall of 2019.  It's basically all the way back from It's all-time high.  I am pretty much exclusively a long-term investor but I am curious if our Scoop gurus would hold onto it for say 20-25 yrs?  It's a nice little chunk of change but the taxes of course would suck.  Can I transfer it to our NIL fund tax-free? 

[MU82]

II  bought a decent chunk of AAPL in the Fall of 2019.  It's basically all the way back from It's all-time high.  I am pretty much exclusively a long-term investor but I am curious if our Scoop gurus would hold onto it for say 20-25 yrs?  It's a nice little chunk of change but the taxes of course would suck.  Can I transfer it to our NIL fund tax-free? 

PMed you.

[rocket surgeon]

been riding nividia since the mid 100's,  tesla may get a little boost since ford announced it will be using it's charging format starting with it's 2025 vehicles

side note-i've been into cameco for 15 years and is finally paying off.  i knew uranium had to make a come back while my advisor kept telling me to sell.  same with dennison mines

[MU82]

been riding nividia since the mid 100's,  tesla may get a little boost since ford announced it will be using it's charging format starting with it's 2025 vehicles

Nicely done on NVDA; hell of a turnaround the last couple months. Wish I had gotten in when you did. Agree on TSLA, which I do hold.

[rocket surgeon]

Nicely done on NVDA; hell of a turnaround the last couple months. Wish I had gotten in when you did. Agree on TSLA, which I do hold.

 i owned nividia back in it's earlier days, bought when it was around $3-4 and held it for a while.  seemed to be spinning it's wheels, sold at around $6.  when i saw it go to $30 and up, i just about burped up a fur ball. 

[SoCalEagle]

II  bought a decent chunk of AAPL in the Fall of 2019.  It's basically all the way back from It's all-time high.  I am pretty much exclusively a long-term investor but I am curious if our Scoop gurus would hold onto it for say 20-25 yrs?  It's a nice little chunk of change but the taxes of course would suck.  Can I transfer it to our NIL fund tax-free? 

Muggsy, you bought AAPL at a great time.  Your investment has probably tripled from the time you bought in (not to mention you get dividends!!).  And, when you bought in, AAPL had just tripled from when someone on this board said it was a dead stock.  What a tremendously bad take that was, remember that?  Perhaps the worst take on a particular stock I have ever seen.

Anyhow, I hold AAPL and will be keeping it for the long run.  I would say 20 to 25 years from here is a possibility (I have already been holding it for almost 20 years, so what's another 20?).  At some point I plan to sell shares on an annual basis for a number of years (helps reduce the tax hit). 

Also, don't worry too much about taxes.  If you plan it right, things will be fine.  You can sell a portion of your shares on an annual basis and probably limit your tax hit to 15% (long term capital gain) as opposed to your gain being taxed as ordinary income if you were to pull it from a tax deferred account. 

Looks like me, you, and MU82 can just keep holding APPL and watch it grow over the years.  You made a great call in the fall of 2019. 

[rocket surgeon]

Muggsy, you bought AAPL at a great time.  Your investment has probably tripled from the time you bought in (not to mention you get dividends!!).  And, when you bought in, AAPL had just tripled from when someone on this board said it was a dead stock.  What a tremendously bad take that was, remember that?  Perhaps the worst take on a particular stock I have ever seen.

Anyhow, I hold AAPL and will be keeping it for the long run.  I would say 20 to 25 years from here is a possibility (I have already been holding it for almost 20 years, so what's another 20?).  At some point I plan to sell shares on an annual basis for a number of years (helps reduce the tax hit). 

Also, don't worry too much about taxes.  If you plan it right, things will be fine.  You can sell a portion of your shares on an annual basis and probably limit your tax hit to 15% (long term capital gain) as opposed to your gain being taxed as ordinary income if you were to pull it from a tax deferred account. 

Looks like me, you, and MU82 can just keep holding APPL and watch it grow over the years.  You made a great call in the fall of 2019.

  apple's dividend history hasn't been much to brag about since 2014, no?

i've been going heavier in to dividend stocks.  i've held altria and bhp for a number of years.  the others are more recent within the past year or so. 

  pxd 11.44%

  dvn 9.32%

  wds 10.78%

  oke 6.51%

  bhp 9.16%

  MO 8.42%

[SoCalEagle]

  apple's dividend history hasn't been much to brag about since 2014, no?

i've been going heavier in to dividend stocks.  i've held altria and bhp for a number of years.  the others are more recent within the past year or so. 

  pxd 11.44%

  dvn 9.32%

  wds 10.78%

  oke 6.51%

  bhp 9.16%

  MO 8.42%

Yeah, nobody invests in AAPL as a dividend play.  But, if you look to pure total return, it has been one of the best investments of this century.  If you are looking for income producing investments I would take a look at JEPI and VTS.  Both produce a good income stream without too much risk. 

[MU82]

I invest mostly in dividend-growing, blue-chip companies. Within that overall category, I own several lower-yielding, "growthier" stocks such as AAPL, MSFT, COST, MA, V, UNH, ZTS, etc. I don't own any of them for their dividend; they are total-return plays. I look at the income they produce as a nice bonus while I enjoy the outsized capital gains.

I have many classic dividend-growth stocks, including those in the utility, health care, consumer staples and consumer discretionary sectors. These are "boring" companies everybody has heard of, but lots of them have performed superbly, too, such as NEE, PEP, HD, MCD, WEC, ABBV, PG, RTX, LMT, etc. Have owned most of those for years and years and years. All part of my "get rich slowly" plan!

[rocket surgeon]

Yeah, nobody invests in AAPL as a dividend play.  But, if you look to pure total return, it has been one of the best investments of this century.  If you are looking for income producing investments I would take a look at JEPI and VTS.  Both produce a good income stream without too much risk.

 thank you eagle-checking em out!

[SoCalEagle]

AAPL just hit an all time closing high on Friday. 

Is Tugg Speedman still giving financial advice?

[MU82]

The bear market has ended and we are officially in a bull market again -- or at least that's what the economists say.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/the-sp-500-has-entered-a-bull-market-heres-what-history-says-will-happen-next-114424541.html?.tsrc=372

Here's where we give the usual caveat that the stock market isn't the same as the economy.

[MuggsyB]

Muggsy, you bought AAPL at a great time.  Your investment has probably tripled from the time you bought in (not to mention you get dividends!!).  And, when you bought in, AAPL had just tripled from when someone on this board said it was a dead stock.  What a tremendously bad take that was, remember that?  Perhaps the worst take on a particular stock I have ever seen.

Anyhow, I hold AAPL and will be keeping it for the long run.  I would say 20 to 25 years from here is a possibility (I have already been holding it for almost 20 years, so what's another 20?).  At some point I plan to sell shares on an annual basis for a number of years (helps reduce the tax hit). 

Also, don't worry too much about taxes.  If you plan it right, things will be fine.  You can sell a portion of your shares on an annual basis and probably limit your tax hit to 15% (long term capital gain) as opposed to your gain being taxed as ordinary income if you were to pull it from a tax deferred account. 

Looks like me, you, and MU82 can just keep holding APPL and watch it grow over the years.  You made a great call in the fall of 2019.

.
Not quite tripled but 250% isn't bad.  I vaguely remember when I first posted on this board someone had a rough call on AAPL. To be quite honest, it was pretty much dumb luck for me. I basically chose to buy it  because I got a sizeable tax-refund and felt like I should add a bigtech stock.  I'm a little concerned it could tank relatively soon, as will the market in general, but I suppose that's a personal anxiety issue.