Investing Thread

[Elonsmusk]

Ners ... just saw this after I posted my previous comment. I appreciate you being willing to reconsider.

Yes. You and forgetful made better points causing me to reconsider.

[MU82]

A disheartening look from an investment analyst I have come to respect after reading his work for years:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ygGFd-30FM8

[JWags85]

AMRN....oh my word

[MU82]

AMRN....oh my word

https://seekingalpha.com/news/3556531-amarin-plunges-after-court-decision-on-vascepa

Amarin plunges after court decision on Vascepa

Amarin (NASDAQ:AMRN) has lost its patent battle against generics.

Update: The court found that the generic firms' marketing applications will infringe on the asserted claims of the Amarin patent but added that the asserted claims are invalid as obvious.

Update: In a statement, the company says it will appeal the ruling and seek an injunction if the FDA approves a marketing application for a generic version of Vascepa.

I hope nobody was in too deep on this one.

[MU82]

On the other hand, for those who have done the research and really believe in AMRN long-term (or who simply like to do some day-trading), it's a lot better value today. Good luck to all.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

Ners jump off a bridge yet?  If he's not a liar, he's lost like 80% of his money in two months. 

[Elonsmusk]

Not yet.  Was a devastating ruling, and I feel terribly for recommending/advocating for AMRN.  The ruling defied all logic.  The judge was an employment and labor attorney, never having presided over a patent case. The USTPO awarded AMRN 10 patents.  There is no "obviousness" behind the mechanism of action for Vascepa.

The science behind AMRN's Vascepa is far more complex than this judge was able to discern.  It is not fish oil.  AMRN will be appealing, and filing an injunction should either of the generics try to proceed with an application to FDA.  I expect AMRN to prevail on appeal, or they will simply litigate the F out of this, thus delaying generics ability to enter market.  They are clear in Canada, and soon the European Union and India for 10+ years.

I bought 1,000 more shares today at $4.07.  AMRN at one time was 80% of my portfolio in November.  I pared that back to 40% since that time due to COVID.  But, this was a big f'in loss for me.

[The Sultan]

Since it is a patent trial, the appeal will go to the US Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit.  (Versus the regional appellate courts where most appeals are heard.)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Court_of_Appeals_for_the_Federal_Circuit

The good news for Amarin is that these judges have extensive experience in patent law, and can generally "see through" some of the legal tactics that sway regular district judges.  (I have a friend to works for the medical device industry and has had to deal with a couple of these types of cases.)

[Elonsmusk]

Since it is a patent trial, the appeal will go to the US Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit.  (Versus the regional appellate courts where most appeals are heard.)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Court_of_Appeals_for_the_Federal_Circuit

The good news for Amarin is that these judges have extensive experience in patent law, and can generally "see through" some of the legal tactics that sway regular district judges.  (I have a friend to works for the medical device industry and has had to deal with a couple of these types of cases.)

Thanks for posting. 

[TSmith34, Inc.]

Not yet.  Was a devastating ruling, and I feel terribly for recommending/advocating for AMRN.  The ruling defied all logic.  The judge was an employment and labor attorney, never having presided over a patent case. The USTPO awarded AMRN 10 patents.  There is no "obviousness" behind the mechanism of action for Vascepa.

The science behind AMRN's Vascepa is far more complex than this judge was able to discern.  It is not fish oil.  AMRN will be appealing, and filing an injunction should either of the generics try to proceed with an application to FDA.  I expect AMRN to prevail on appeal, or they will simply litigate the F out of this, thus delaying generics ability to enter market.  They are clear in Canada, and soon the European Union and India for 10+ years.

I bought 1,000 more shares today at $4.07.  AMRN at one time was 80% of my portfolio in November.  I pared that back to 40% since that time due to COVID.  But, this was a big f'in loss for me.

Sorry to hear that, that is rough. Biotech can be high reward, but it is definitely high risk.  Hopefully this turns around for you.

[Elonsmusk]

Sorry to hear that, that is rough. Biotech can be high reward, but it is definitely high risk.  Hopefully this turns around for you.

Thanks.  Classy.  Had to buy back in at $4.07 to help get dollar cost average down some.  I do feel over time this will bounce back.  Psychologically hard to buy on bad news, yet it does create an opportunity if one truly believes in their investment thesis/due diligence.

I agree biotechs are volatile, yet this was one very far down the road, with a massive TAM, which had been doubling revenues 4 years in a row.  With the broadened label approval they got in early December their TAM increased ~ 7x from what they built $450M in rev on in 2019.

Fingers crossed it turns around over next few years.

[mu_hilltopper]

I was thinking with all these debt payments ..

What if we could monkey with the calendar: March 1st has been extended past 24 hours and now will last 90 days, followed by March 2nd.

Nobody likes January, so we'll skip that for the next 3 years and be back on track.

[rocky_warrior]

I up thinking with all these debt payments ..

What if we could monkey with the calendar: March 1st has been extended past 24 hours and now will last 90 days, followed by March 2nd.

Nobody likes January, so we'll skip that for the next 3 years and be back on track.

Can you also turn my 1 loaf of bread into 12 loaves of bread (times all the items in my refrigerator/pantry) - then I think we're all set to shut things down for your day.  Oh, and free gas, electric, water, internet and trash in that day too.

[Tortuga94]

Its a good idea for long-term investors to revisit their asset allocation. While we typically say you should rebalance your portfolio at least once per year, it is during times like this, when there is extreme volatility that asset allocations get out of balance. Stay invested for the long-term, be diversified, and rebalance.

[Keithtisbarf]

Sorry to hear that. 

Pathetic, absolutely f*****in pathetic on their part

Not really, businesses don't have much choice

[mu_hilltopper]

Can you also turn my 1 loaf of bread into 12 loaves of bread (times all the items in my refrigerator/pantry) - then I think we're all set to shut things down for your day.  Oh, and free gas, electric, water, internet and trash in that day too.

Yes!  There's a special admin menu on MUScoop where we can edit that stuff.

[Chili]

Things I am seeing and hearing from people much smarter than I say **** may be hitting the fan hard in the next 2-3 weeks. They don't think we hit the bottom yet at all. Thoughts of S&P below 2000.

[MU82]

Things I am seeing and hearing from people much smarter than I say **** may be hitting the fan hard in the next 2-3 weeks. They don't think we hit the bottom yet at all. Thoughts of S&P below 2000.

I wouldn't be the least bit surprised.

Investing is always a kind of gambling. Now seems especially gambly.

Since this began, I have bought small additional stakes in a few positions I already held, but I am treading very carefully, guarding the dry powder I spent a year building as if it were solid gold. Which to me it is.

Good fortune to all.

[Bad_Reporter]

Not really, businesses don't have much choice

Just want to confirm.  You're saying airlines had no choice in buying stock buybacks the past 10 years, all while f****ng the customer?

Ok

[JWags85]

Just want to confirm.  You're saying airlines had no choice in buying stock buybacks the past 10 years, all while f****ng the customer?

Ok

He's also the one that said he'd be scared to be walking around as an Asian American in the US right now. So, yea...

[forgetful]

Things I am seeing and hearing from people much smarter than I say **** may be hitting the fan hard in the next 2-3 weeks. They don't think we hit the bottom yet at all. Thoughts of S&P below 2000.

I guess the question is, how much of this had been priced in already. There is no reason the stock market should be up today.

Unemployment numbers way higher than expected. Cases and deaths through the roof.

Hot spots breaking out nationwide.

Stock market goes up. Strange and scary times.

[Tortuga94]

My guess is that a lot of the bad news has been priced in, markets tend to overreact to the downside and I believe the lows were made last week Monday. Of course, I can also be wrong and there could be another big sell-off. The truth is no one really knows and it's been proven many, many times that trying to time the market is not very wise as you are likely to get that wrong.

When people take their money out of the market during these crashes, they are very hesitant to put that money back in. Markets will start their climb back up before the situation at hand is under control and the data starts looking good, so while it doesn't make sense that the market is up on a day like today it didn't make sense on 3/9/2009 which is the day the markets bottomed during the financial crisis.

[MU82]

My guess is that a lot of the bad news has been priced in, markets tend to overreact to the downside and I believe the lows were made last week Monday. Of course, I can also be wrong and there could be another big sell-off. The truth is no one really knows and it's been proven many, many times that trying to time the market is not very wise as you are likely to get that wrong.

When people take their money out of the market during these crashes, they are very hesitant to put that money back in. Markets will start their climb back up before the situation at hand is under control and the data starts looking good, so while it doesn't make sense that the market is up on a day like today it didn't make sense on 3/9/2009 which is the day the markets bottomed during the financial crisis.

The market had many, many up days, with significant gains, between Oct 2008 (when many thought it had bottomed) and 3/9/09 (when it actually did, finally, bottom). They're commonly referred to as "dead-cat bounces." Unfortunately, we won't know what these little upward blips are, or whether the market did in fact hit a bottom last week, until we can look back in hindsight months or even years from now.

[Chili]

The market had many, many up days, with significant gains, between Oct 2008 (when many thought it had bottomed) and 3/9/09 (when it actually did, finally, bottom). They're commonly referred to as "dead-cat bounces." Unfortunately, we won't know what these little upward blips are, or whether the market did in fact hit a bottom last week, until we can look back in hindsight months or even years from now.

Your timing is dead on looking at Oct. 2008. What happened in early Nov 2008 is a lot of the historical fundamentals I am seeing mirror up to what we have now.

Last weeks gains were driven very heavily by pensions rebalancing and I don't believe it to be indicative of the actual health of the market. If you were able to ride the wave, great. But it's not over. I'm still waiting until sub 2100. I originally had 2500. I am going lower. With earnings calls starting and companies offering revised guidance there will be a lot of movement. Also, as we move into peak times and force of COVID is fully felt we'll see the actual impact. I fear we've only had big tremors so far.

[JWags85]

The market had many, many up days, with significant gains, between Oct 2008 (when many thought it had bottomed) and 3/9/09 (when it actually did, finally, bottom). They're commonly referred to as "dead-cat bounces." Unfortunately, we won't know what these little upward blips are, or whether the market did in fact hit a bottom last week, until we can look back in hindsight months or even years from now.

Stocks go up, stocks go down.  Not picking on you personally, but people are too eager to label every green day as a "dead cat bounce".  Some are just pressure release of oversold conditions, some are better than expected "bad news", some are just major hedge funds with a bearish bias taking a day off of short positions.

People freaking out about a green market today ignore the 8% drop on over the last few days.  The futures bounced hard on overnight oversold conditions and then sold off pretty hard once the actual numbers came out.  Aka, the market front ran the bad news the last few days (buy the rumor, sell the news as we often here...though reversed to the downside), and the fact that it was worse than expected kind of erased the second portion.

People, especially in bad times, just assume everything needs to be an elevator down or the market has to surge/crater in real time.

Last weeks gains were driven very heavily by pensions rebalancing and I don't believe it to be indicative of the actual health of the market. If you were able to ride the wave, great. But it's not over. I'm still waiting until sub 2100. I originally had 2500. I am going lower. With earnings calls starting and companies offering revised guidance there will be a lot of movement. Also, as we move into peak times and force of COVID is fully felt we'll see the actual impact. I fear we've only had big tremors so far.

This is what I keep telling people.  The true drops, if they occur, will be when we get actual bad earnings and guidance, not speculations.  We already had one of the fastest drops in history, and people think another 10-20% will come immediately?  Thats just market ignorance and overreaction.