collapse

* Recent Posts

2024 NCAA Tournament Thread by Plaque Lives Matter!
[Today at 01:02:54 AM]


45 minutes ago at the Dallas Westin by MuggsyB
[Today at 12:19:24 AM]


2024 Coaching Carousel by Plaque Lives Matter!
[Today at 12:10:57 AM]


2024 Transfer Portal by CountryRoads
[Today at 12:05:42 AM]


Are we still recruiting anyone for the 24-25 season. by Don_Kojis
[Today at 12:04:21 AM]


Where is Marquette? by marqfan22
[March 28, 2024, 09:29:52 PM]


Chicago bars for Fri game by Daniel
[March 28, 2024, 08:47:22 PM]

Please Register - It's FREE!

The absolute only thing required for this FREE registration is a valid e-mail address.  We keep all your information confidential and will NEVER give or sell it to anyone else.
Login to get rid of this box (and ads) , or register NOW!


Author Topic: Investing Thread  (Read 288094 times)

Marquette Gyros

  • Starter
  • ***
  • Posts: 155
Re: Investing Thread
« Reply #575 on: March 26, 2020, 03:55:52 PM »
Maybe I've been reading the wrong (read: pessimistic) news sources, tweets, articles etc. but I don't trust the nearly 20% bounce from earlier this week.

Stimulus/bailout package looks premature -- similar to the completely useless Fed rate cut.

- Domestic COVID cases aren't relenting; NYC is shut down & anyone who can get out already has, and there's no national containment strategy.

- Ca$h handouts drive short-term demand of essential goods & services but won't be enough for people to survive a prolonged shelter in place order, which would appear to be necessary to stop crazy infection rates in the absence of a vaccine.

- One specific sector, but I have no idea who's buying airline equities with any confidence whatsoever. They rose to Feb 2020 peaks based on 90%+ load factors; extensive international flying, high corp demand, etc. The new normal looks like deeply limited domestic demand, unoccupied middle seats, WebEx, canceled events and curtailed international flights. I get the bailout - but DL, UA, AA are burning $50MM cash per day...

Hards Alumni

  • All American
  • *****
  • Posts: 6583
Re: Investing Thread
« Reply #576 on: March 26, 2020, 04:58:01 PM »
Maybe I've been reading the wrong (read: pessimistic) news sources, tweets, articles etc. but I don't trust the nearly 20% bounce from earlier this week.

Stimulus/bailout package looks premature -- similar to the completely useless Fed rate cut.

- Domestic COVID cases aren't relenting; NYC is shut down & anyone who can get out already has, and there's no national containment strategy.

- Ca$h handouts drive short-term demand of essential goods & services but won't be enough for people to survive a prolonged shelter in place order, which would appear to be necessary to stop crazy infection rates in the absence of a vaccine.

- One specific sector, but I have no idea who's buying airline equities with any confidence whatsoever. They rose to Feb 2020 peaks based on 90%+ load factors; extensive international flying, high corp demand, etc. The new normal looks like deeply limited domestic demand, unoccupied middle seats, WebEx, canceled events and curtailed international flights. I get the bailout - but DL, UA, AA are burning $50MM cash per day...

Because the bounce today is sucker money.  We are nowhere near the bottom of this.

JWags85

  • All American
  • *****
  • Posts: 2980
Re: Investing Thread
« Reply #577 on: March 26, 2020, 05:49:46 PM »
Because the bounce today is sucker money.  We are nowhere near the bottom of this.

It’s not a sucker bounce. Markets, even bear markets, don’t fall all at once. People thinking we would plummet right to 2100 or 1600 on the SPX are Chicken Little idiots. The market gained some stability once measures are being taken to both assist the economy as well as fight the virus. If you’re talking a set it and forget it buy level, then no, we probably see lower in the future. But this isn’t some dead cat that’s going to be completely erased next week. I also would be fairly surprised to see BA back under $100 as well as other lows in certain names probably being in, regardless of index levels. Lot of stuff that got thrown out like a baby with the bath water despite limited risk or exposure to this situation

21Jumpstreet

  • All American
  • *****
  • Posts: 1328
Re: Investing Thread
« Reply #578 on: March 26, 2020, 07:44:05 PM »
Took some profits today from GE and USFD, hogs get slaughtered as it were. I think they both go back down over the next month at which time I will be a buyer. Airlines scare me, always have, not sure I want to be an owner of that business.

Elonsmusk

  • All American
  • *****
  • Posts: 2262
Re: Investing Thread
« Reply #579 on: March 26, 2020, 07:57:42 PM »
I saw a good tweet talking about the bailout money that Boeing and the airlines are getting.

"They have iPhones and TVs. Why should they get a handout from taxpayers?"

Bailout = Necessary evil. BA employs 150k people, which helps those people have iPhones and TVs.

The “slush fund” is necessary. No share buybacks allowed. We’ve never seen an economic crisis like this in our history.  Companies fail, lots of people out of work. Then what?  Tax revenue also gets crushed. Deficits further abound.

Imagine being a small business owner now and you have ZERO revenue coming in, 50 employees, and you are shut down indefinitely. Brutal situation.

I’ve been both a small business owner and a corporate employee. Being an employee is cush AF, as compared to running a small business.

jesmu84

  • All American
  • *****
  • Posts: 6031
Re: Investing Thread
« Reply #580 on: March 26, 2020, 08:42:38 PM »
Well, we could react like Canada, for starters. That'd be a little different approach. Certainly less corporate socialism.

MU82

  • All American
  • *****
  • Posts: 22730
Re: Investing Thread
« Reply #581 on: March 26, 2020, 10:30:12 PM »
Bailout = Necessary evil. BA employs 150k people, which helps those people have iPhones and TVs.

The “slush fund” is necessary. No share buybacks allowed. We’ve never seen an economic crisis like this in our history.  Companies fail, lots of people out of work. Then what?  Tax revenue also gets crushed. Deficits further abound.

Imagine being a small business owner now and you have ZERO revenue coming in, 50 employees, and you are shut down indefinitely. Brutal situation.

I’ve been both a small business owner and a corporate employee. Being an employee is cush AF, as compared to running a small business.

I actually mostly agree with you. The bailouts, largely, were necessary.

The tweet, of course, was referring to those who say that because somebody has an iPhone, it means he or she shouldn't need any government/taxpayer assistance.

A faction of our country that is almost always against government/taxpayer assistance somehow always finds room to open their hearts when those that need assisting are multibillion-dollar corporations -- corporations that spent years buying back their own stock and paying executives tens of millions of dollars.

It's not a black and white issue. As always, there are shades of gray, nuance. But it's probably asking too much for folks to remember that the next time they want to rip somebody who makes $20K per year for having the temerity to own an iPhone.
“It’s not how white men fight.” - Tucker Carlson

MU82

  • All American
  • *****
  • Posts: 22730
Re: Investing Thread
« Reply #582 on: March 26, 2020, 11:04:26 PM »
This guy is usually a market doom-and-gloomer who has been hinting about an impending Next Big Recession since at least 2013, so know that going in.

But he makes some interesting points about this current market upswing and what he thinks might follow.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4334374-you-one-week-to-decide?li_source=LI&li_medium=liftigniter-widget

His big point is about what investors should do next:

You have one week to decide. Maybe you read all of these above risks and shrug your bullish shoulders. Perhaps you subscribe to some of the risks above, but dismiss others. Maybe you are deeply concerns about the downside risk prospects for capital markets. If you are undecided, or if you have been biding your time waiting for the bounce, now is the time to be thinking about your exposure to risk assets going forward. For once we get toward the end of next week, things for financial markets are about to get REAL real.

Up to this point, we have been moving through what is a traditionally quiet period of the quarter, particularly during the second half of March. The flow of economic and market data is minimal, and much of it is getting dismissed now anyway as it reflects conditions that were in place prior to the onset of COVID-19 in this country. And this quiet period will continue into next week.

This will all change come next Friday, April 3 when the monthly job report for March is released. From this point on, investors will increasingly be forced to take a look at a steady data showing how much damage the U.S. economy has sustained thus far.

Moreover, 2020 Q1 earnings season will quickly get underway starting the week of April 6 and picking up quickly through the remainder of the month and into May. This will not only include companies reporting on how they fared with the operating disruption at the very end of the first quarter, but they will also be issuing guidance (whatever this will be worth) on what they expect from their businesses in Q2 and beyond. All of this information is almost certainly going to be deeply troubling. The only question is exactly how troubling. But if the fact that current earnings forecasts remain as high as they are suggests a lot of space exists for investors to be negatively shocked while seeing their forward P/E ratios explode through the roof. The degree of solvency risk facing many companies will come increasingly into view during this time period as well.

So while hopes may be high that we may have bottomed on March 23, the likelihood instead is that we may have hit our first bottom in a series of successive bottoms that may extend out for some time into the future.


I admit that I too am concerned, and I think justifiably, about what's gonna happen when earnings season starts in just a couple weeks. It's gonna be one bad report after another, and some pretty horrific forward guidance. Will Mr. Market react by saying, "Yeah, but everybody knew that was coming; it's about to get better soon"? Or will he freak out and sell off again, perhaps even deeper than the crash we just endured?

Saying, "You have one week to decide" might be a little overly dramatic ... or not. I know I'll be doing some thinking, even though I hate market-timing.
“It’s not how white men fight.” - Tucker Carlson

JWags85

  • All American
  • *****
  • Posts: 2980
Re: Investing Thread
« Reply #583 on: March 26, 2020, 11:06:55 PM »
Imagine being a small business owner now and you have ZERO revenue coming in, 50 employees, and you are shut down indefinitely. Brutal situation.

I’ve been both a small business owner and a corporate employee. Being an employee is cush AF, as compared to running a small business.

Yep. That’s where I am right now. As a key stakeholder in a 25 person company. We have a global business, but a key point and process to our deliverable is produced in Long Island City, so not only are orders not coming in domestically, we have to put any global orders on hold.

I thought the same thing, I worked for PepsiCo before I made the move to where I am now. If I was still there, it would be the most relaxed laidback WFH situation for a month with zero worries (I worked on a pretty inelastic product segment and our group went through 3 lay-off periods during my tenure and didn’t lose a single employee).

GooooMarquette

  • All American
  • *****
  • Posts: 9489
  • We got this.
Re: Investing Thread
« Reply #584 on: March 27, 2020, 12:49:41 PM »
Yep. That’s where I am right now. As a key stakeholder in a 25 person company. We have a global business, but a key point and process to our deliverable is produced in Long Island City, so not only are orders not coming in domestically, we have to put any global orders on hold.

I thought the same thing, I worked for PepsiCo before I made the move to where I am now. If I was still there, it would be the most relaxed laidback WFH situation for a month with zero worries (I worked on a pretty inelastic product segment and our group went through 3 lay-off periods during my tenure and didn’t lose a single employee).


I truly wish you the best JWags. It's a crappy situation and the stimulus package can't give you much comfort. America needs entrepreneurs like you, so I hope our leaders can come up with something that bails out businesses like yours, as they're doing for larger companies and (most) individuals.


rocky_warrior

  • Global Moderator
  • All American
  • *****
  • Posts: 9002
Re: Investing Thread
« Reply #585 on: March 27, 2020, 02:18:45 PM »
It’s not a sucker bounce. [snip]. But this isn’t some dead cat that’s going to be completely erased next week.

I'm not sure I'd put money on that.

pbiflyer

  • Registered User
  • All American
  • *****
  • Posts: 1737
Re: Investing Thread
« Reply #586 on: March 27, 2020, 03:25:56 PM »
Not sure where else to put this. Here seems to make a bit of sense.

Delta just called us (we are a vendor) and asked to defer for 90 days a 7 figure bill that they have due next month.
I am sure we were not the only vendor called.

MU Fan in Connecticut

  • Registered User
  • All American
  • *****
  • Posts: 3438
Re: Investing Thread
« Reply #587 on: March 27, 2020, 03:48:50 PM »
I had my first customer send me notification that they were operating on Payment Terms Net 45 rather than any previous set terms until July 31.
Still better than 90 days.

I'm expecting more.

Bad_Reporter

  • All American
  • *****
  • Posts: 673
Re: Investing Thread
« Reply #588 on: March 27, 2020, 07:19:13 PM »
Not sure where else to put this. Here seems to make a bit of sense.

Delta just called us (we are a vendor) and asked to defer for 90 days a 7 figure bill that they have due next month.
I am sure we were not the only vendor called.

Sorry to hear that. 

Pathetic, absolutely f*****in pathetic on their part

JWags85

  • All American
  • *****
  • Posts: 2980
Re: Investing Thread
« Reply #589 on: March 27, 2020, 09:14:54 PM »
I had my first customer send me notification that they were operating on Payment Terms Net 45 rather than any previous set terms until July 31.
Still better than 90 days.

I'm expecting more.

At least they communicated that much. I had multiple customers with overdue invoices say some version “we won’t be making payment  against overdue invoices until Covid-related business conditions improve”.

My favorite were 3 diff Indian customers, each 30+ days overdue who dodged calls and requests repeatedly but responded THE DAY AFTER India’s lockdown was announced saying they couldn’t pay cause “as you know, India is on lockdown”.

It’s been fun. Especially cause I know these companies have 8-9 figure annual revenues and they are withholding $5-10-15K payments

pbiflyer

  • Registered User
  • All American
  • *****
  • Posts: 1737
Re: Investing Thread
« Reply #590 on: March 27, 2020, 09:50:09 PM »
Sorry to hear that. 

Pathetic, absolutely f*****in pathetic on their part

It was rejected, but I suggested that they could do it, but we inform them about our “change fee”. Our finance guy thought it was hysterical but not appropriate.

MU Fan in Connecticut

  • Registered User
  • All American
  • *****
  • Posts: 3438
Re: Investing Thread
« Reply #591 on: March 28, 2020, 06:58:50 AM »
At least they communicated that much. I had multiple customers with overdue invoices say some version “we won’t be making payment  against overdue invoices until Covid-related business conditions improve”.

My favorite were 3 diff Indian customers, each 30+ days overdue who dodged calls and requests repeatedly but responded THE DAY AFTER India’s lockdown was announced saying they couldn’t pay cause “as you know, India is on lockdown”.

It’s been fun. Especially cause I know these companies have 8-9 figure annual revenues and they are withholding $5-10-15K payments

My company has been pushing for COD with Indian customers unless they are a western company.

Elonsmusk

  • All American
  • *****
  • Posts: 2262
Re: Investing Thread
« Reply #592 on: March 28, 2020, 12:00:03 PM »
At least they communicated that much. I had multiple customers with overdue invoices say some version “we won’t be making payment  against overdue invoices until Covid-related business conditions improve”.

My favorite were 3 diff Indian customers, each 30+ days overdue who dodged calls and requests repeatedly but responded THE DAY AFTER India’s lockdown was announced saying they couldn’t pay cause “as you know, India is on lockdown”.

It’s been fun. Especially cause I know these companies have 8-9 figure annual revenues and they are withholding $5-10-15K payments

Good luck Wags.  Sending prayers the way of all business owners.  The true brave.  Take care.

MU82

  • All American
  • *****
  • Posts: 22730
Re: Investing Thread
« Reply #593 on: March 28, 2020, 12:48:35 PM »
The true brave.

I also am hoping for good things for Wags and other small-business owners, but why are they "the true brave"?

Nurses aren't truly brave right now? Doctors? Other health-care professionals? Firefighters and cops and soldiers aren't truly brave all the time? Not sure why you would label only small-business owners as truly brave. Seems odd. Serious question.
“It’s not how white men fight.” - Tucker Carlson

Elonsmusk

  • All American
  • *****
  • Posts: 2262
Re: Investing Thread
« Reply #594 on: March 28, 2020, 03:18:10 PM »
I also am hoping for good things for Wags and other small-business owners, but why are they "the true brave"?

Nurses aren't truly brave right now? Doctors? Other health-care professionals? Firefighters and cops and soldiers aren't truly brave all the time? Not sure why you would label only small-business owners as truly brave. Seems odd. Serious question.

All of the above are noble and heroic professions as well.  Wasn't meant to dis them or others.  Why the "true brave?"  The entrepreneur lays their own capital on the line, and to succeed has to take something from an idea to a reality.  In so doing they build a business that others become dependent upon to also provide a livelihood - not to mention generate tax revenue for the public sector.  Until you've had sleepless nights worrying about how you can make payroll, not lay people off - knowing they are good people and good workers - it is hard to fathom the stress.

And of course doctors, nurses, police, firefighters encounter stressful realities - however, they don't have the stress of funding their own profession, worrying about if they are going to get paid, and able to pay others, etc.

forgetful

  • All American
  • *****
  • Posts: 4728
Re: Investing Thread
« Reply #595 on: March 28, 2020, 03:25:07 PM »
And of course doctors, nurses, police, firefighters encounter stressful realities - however, they don't have the stress of funding their own profession, worrying about if they are going to get paid, and able to pay others, etc.

Yeah, those people only have to risk their very life. Right now, they are being asked to care for patients with a deadly virus without a mask and little or no PPE, leading to them getting infected, possibly infecting their families, and possibly dying.

I'll stick with them being the "true brave".

Elonsmusk

  • All American
  • *****
  • Posts: 2262
Re: Investing Thread
« Reply #596 on: March 28, 2020, 04:13:35 PM »
Yeah, those people only have to risk their very life. Right now, they are being asked to care for patients with a deadly virus without a mask and little or no PPE, leading to them getting infected, possibly infecting their families, and possibly dying.

I'll stick with them being the "true brave".

My girlfriend is an ER doc.  Trust me.  I get it, and understand the heroism.  However, she's yet to be without PPE or masks, thankfully. 

But yes, risking ones life trumps laying ones cash on the line.  So, I stand corrected.

MU82

  • All American
  • *****
  • Posts: 22730
Re: Investing Thread
« Reply #597 on: March 28, 2020, 04:29:06 PM »
All of the above are noble and heroic professions as well.  Wasn't meant to dis them or others.  Why the "true brave?"  The entrepreneur lays their own capital on the line, and to succeed has to take something from an idea to a reality.  In so doing they build a business that others become dependent upon to also provide a livelihood - not to mention generate tax revenue for the public sector.  Until you've had sleepless nights worrying about how you can make payroll, not lay people off - knowing they are good people and good workers - it is hard to fathom the stress.

And of course doctors, nurses, police, firefighters encounter stressful realities - however, they don't have the stress of funding their own profession, worrying about if they are going to get paid, and able to pay others, etc.

No, they only lay their lives on the line.

I admire small-business owners. I thought about being one, and I admittedly wasn't brave enough to do it.

But I still don't get labeling them as "the true brave." I know it probably seems like I'm picking on you here, but it just doesn't make sense to claim they are "truly braver" than soldiers serving tours in war zones, nurses treating patients during a pandemic or firefighters rushing into burning buildings to rescue people.
“It’s not how white men fight.” - Tucker Carlson

MU82

  • All American
  • *****
  • Posts: 22730
Re: Investing Thread
« Reply #598 on: March 28, 2020, 04:30:01 PM »
My girlfriend is an ER doc.  Trust me.  I get it, and understand the heroism.  However, she's yet to be without PPE or masks, thankfully. 

But yes, risking ones life trumps laying ones cash on the line.  So, I stand corrected.

Ners ... just saw this after I posted my previous comment. I appreciate you being willing to reconsider.
“It’s not how white men fight.” - Tucker Carlson

forgetful

  • All American
  • *****
  • Posts: 4728
Re: Investing Thread
« Reply #599 on: March 28, 2020, 05:13:40 PM »
My girlfriend is an ER doc.  Trust me.  I get it, and understand the heroism.  However, she's yet to be without PPE or masks, thankfully. 

But yes, risking ones life trumps laying ones cash on the line.  So, I stand corrected.

A close friend is a doc in NY, she is likely now infected, because they were out of PPE and still had to treat patients.

 

feedback