collapse

* Recent Posts

NCSTATE is evil by tower912
[Today at 10:11:00 AM]


Where is Marquette? by Scoop Snoop
[Today at 10:10:34 AM]


2024 Transfer Portal by Uncle Rico
[Today at 10:02:17 AM]


Are we still recruiting anyone for the 24-25 season. by tower912
[Today at 09:58:46 AM]


2024 Coaching Carousel by Viper
[Today at 09:52:10 AM]


2024 NCAA Tournament Thread by MU Fan in Connecticut
[Today at 09:25:35 AM]


Chicago bars for Fri game by MarquetteDano
[Today at 09:22:06 AM]

Please Register - It's FREE!

The absolute only thing required for this FREE registration is a valid e-mail address.  We keep all your information confidential and will NEVER give or sell it to anyone else.
Login to get rid of this box (and ads) , or register NOW!


Author Topic: Investing Thread  (Read 288467 times)

MU82

  • All American
  • *****
  • Posts: 22730
Re: Investing Thread
« Reply #475 on: March 18, 2020, 11:34:52 AM »
Oh yeah, I am very familiar with your articles on that site.  But just because you typically focus on dividend payers doesn't mean you can't write about others.  In fact, it could be a good sort of counterpoint that people shouldn't get locked into only one kind of investing if a different type of opportunity is staring them in the face.  Just my 2c.

Agree with you. Although I do need to write about what my bosses want me to write about, they probably wouldn't object to me writing about AMZN. I'd have to be seriously considering it for the portfolio I'm building, however. I appreciate your input.
“It’s not how white men fight.” - Tucker Carlson

JWags85

  • All American
  • *****
  • Posts: 2980
Re: Investing Thread
« Reply #476 on: March 18, 2020, 12:06:40 PM »
Bill Ackman comes on CNBC, preaches INSANE doom and gloom, says the only way the market recovers is a 30 day shutdown, touts his positions while driving prices lower because Pershing Square is in buying mode...then caps it off by saying he took out a bunch of cash from the bank last month.  Just a complete douchebag of an interview all things considered.

DegenerateDish

  • All American
  • *****
  • Posts: 2532
Re: Investing Thread
« Reply #477 on: March 18, 2020, 01:25:58 PM »
I played TVIX alot in the past, then got turned on to Options two years ago, and stopped playing TVIX. On Feb 19th, not even a month ago, TVIX was at $39 a share. At 8:45am today, I texted my brother and said "we should have grabbed shares of TVIX when this all started and was in the 40's, it's at $700 a share now".

I just checked TVIX, it's now up to $1000 a share, up $300 in 5 hours.

Crazy, crazy times man.

Elonsmusk

  • All American
  • *****
  • Posts: 2262
Re: Investing Thread
« Reply #478 on: March 18, 2020, 06:51:48 PM »

Sure acts like Ners.

I wonder if he thinks the market was overbought?

I'm not Curbina.  I did not think the market was overbought.  Felt some stocks were absolutely overbought, however.  I shifted gears in January, and began to short a few stocks:  Match Group, Lululemon, and Shopify.  3 stocks I owned from 2017-2019.  They had fabulous run ups.  But their RSI's were consistently pushing 80-90, and their PE's/Market Caps were hard to fathom.

I've gotten crushed on some of my biotechs, but have been buying back in over the last week.  I'm big on AMRN, GNPX, IGMS, PTI, SAVA - of those, I feel most confident about AMRN.  I'm confident AMRN will double in the next 6-12 months, once COVID-19 is past us.  It's a steal at $10.25 per share.  Bloom Energy is another interesting play (BE).

I suspect COVID-19 will take another 3 months to fully abate.  Hard to say how the markets will stomach such a drawn out period of uncertainty.  However, this has created some great buying opportunities once again.

Hards Alumni

  • All American
  • *****
  • Posts: 6583
Re: Investing Thread
« Reply #479 on: March 18, 2020, 07:02:05 PM »
I'm not Curbina.  I did not think the market was overbought.  Felt some stocks were absolutely overbought, however.  I shifted gears in January, and began to short a few stocks:  Match Group, Lululemon, and Shopify.  3 stocks I owned from 2017-2019.  They had fabulous run ups.  But their RSI's were consistently pushing 80-90, and their PE's/Market Caps were hard to fathom.

I've gotten crushed on some of my biotechs, but have been buying back in over the last week.  I'm big on AMRN, GNPX, IGMS, PTI, SAVA - of those, I feel most confident about AMRN.  I'm confident AMRN will double in the next 6-12 months, once COVID-19 is past us.  It's a steal at $10.25 per share.  Bloom Energy is another interesting play (BE).

I suspect COVID-19 will take another 3 months to fully abate.  Hard to say how the markets will stomach such a drawn out period of uncertainty.  However, this has created some great buying opportunities once again.

It'll still be a steal at $8.  :-X

MU82

  • All American
  • *****
  • Posts: 22730
Re: Investing Thread
« Reply #480 on: March 18, 2020, 07:03:38 PM »
Difficult to know when to jump in with serious bucks.

I know it's not possible to call the bottom, and I won't even try. But I've worked hard to build up some dry powder and I'd rather not pour it in only to see another 35-50% down from here.

I am not a spec investor at all. I buy almost exclusively blue-chip, dividend-growing stocks that everybody has heard of. So I will stick to what I perceive as the highest quality, realizing the prices will bounce around after I buy them.

After there is a clear sign this nightmare is ending, the market likely will shoot up. But then there will be some horrible earnings reports and it will be bouncy. Hard to make any kind of intelligent prediction.

It's all part of the fun!
“It’s not how white men fight.” - Tucker Carlson

mu_hilltopper

  • Warrior
  • Global Moderator
  • All American
  • *****
  • Posts: 7403
    • https://twitter.com/nihilist_arbys
Re: Investing Thread
« Reply #481 on: March 18, 2020, 07:39:46 PM »
Serious investing question .. if the next unemployment number is 10-15-20% .. doesn't the market crater 50% further?

Elonsmusk

  • All American
  • *****
  • Posts: 2262
Re: Investing Thread
« Reply #482 on: March 18, 2020, 07:41:21 PM »
It'll still be a steal at $8.  :-X

And I will absolutely by more at $8 should it drop there.  Always nice to dollar cost average down.  Big picture, I think AMRN will either be bought out soon for a 3-4x multiple or they go it alone and will be trading in the $50s within 3-4 years max barring any other Black Swan events.

Elonsmusk

  • All American
  • *****
  • Posts: 2262
Re: Investing Thread
« Reply #483 on: March 18, 2020, 07:47:02 PM »
Difficult to know when to jump in with serious bucks.

I know it's not possible to call the bottom, and I won't even try. But I've worked hard to build up some dry powder and I'd rather not pour it in only to see another 35-50% down from here.

I am not a spec investor at all. I buy almost exclusively blue-chip, dividend-growing stocks that everybody has heard of. So I will stick to what I perceive as the highest quality, realizing the prices will bounce around after I buy them.

After there is a clear sign this nightmare is ending, the market likely will shoot up. But then there will be some horrible earnings reports and it will be bouncy. Hard to make any kind of intelligent prediction.

It's all part of the fun!

Sounds like you have a sound strategy 82.  Always good to invest in what you know.  One thought regarding dry powder - wish I had more right now - never a good idea to invest all that dry powder at once.  One strategy would be to invest 1/12th of dry powder each of the next 12 weeks - buying on down days.  As I mentioned, feel it will still be quite volatile the next 3 months..thus the 12 week buying cycle.

You are right in your foresight regarding future earnings.  Going to be lots of misses.  Think most investors/institutional investors will be quite forgiving.  Key driver will be re-employment, and consumer spending - which could actually be quite high if we are in true lock down mode for next 30-60 days.

GooooMarquette

  • All American
  • *****
  • Posts: 9489
  • We got this.
Re: Investing Thread
« Reply #484 on: March 18, 2020, 07:50:01 PM »

I know it's not possible to call the bottom, and I won't even try. But I've worked hard to build up some dry powder and I'd rather not pour it in only to see another 35-50% down from here.



That’s where I am now. I bought small batches of GOOGL and ISRG when they had dipped quite a bit... and then they fell way more.

Maybe I should buy more now, but I’m gonna wait a little while longer. Maybe if GOOGL hits $900.

MU82

  • All American
  • *****
  • Posts: 22730
Re: Investing Thread
« Reply #485 on: March 18, 2020, 10:49:16 PM »
Sounds like you have a sound strategy 82.  Always good to invest in what you know.  One thought regarding dry powder - wish I had more right now - never a good idea to invest all that dry powder at once.  One strategy would be to invest 1/12th of dry powder each of the next 12 weeks - buying on down days.  As I mentioned, feel it will still be quite volatile the next 3 months..thus the 12 week buying cycle.

You are right in your foresight regarding future earnings.  Going to be lots of misses.  Think most investors/institutional investors will be quite forgiving.  Key driver will be re-employment, and consumer spending - which could actually be quite high if we are in true lock down mode for next 30-60 days.

Thanks. I usually reject the old "it's priced in" argument, but I do think some of the earnings misses and employment figures will be baked in. Most investors have to know that's the way it's gonna be. But the market isn't really rational, so sure I'd expect some downward movement when the real bad news gets announced. Just a guess, though. I don't pretend to know.

Believe me, I will not jump all in with my dry powder. I am protecting it like it's my first-born child!

Serious investing question .. if the next unemployment number is 10-15-20% .. doesn't the market crater 50% further?

See my above answer, FWIW. But anybody who claims to know exactly how Mr. Market will react is lying.


That’s where I am now. I bought small batches of GOOGL and ISRG when they had dipped quite a bit... and then they fell way more.

Maybe I should buy more now, but I’m gonna wait a little while longer. Maybe if GOOGL hits $900.

I have identified a couple dozen companies I'm interested in, and have tried to assess "hero" prices I'd be willing to pay to buy some shares in them. Otherwise known as a watch list.

The problem is, those prices are largely based on projected earnings and sales, and those figures almost surely will be adjusted (probably downward) after each of the next couple of quarters. So it's a little bit like playing "pin the tail on the market" while blindfolded. Not the greatest feeling. I've tried to be super-conservative with my assessments, build in a margin of safety.

FWIW, I'm a GOOGL buyer at $840-ish -- 15 times expected 2021 earnings. It might never get down there, and that would be fine; I don't "need" GOOGL to reach my goals. But that's when it would get really interesting for me. And I retain the right to change that figure based on market conditions at the time.

Good luck to all.

“It’s not how white men fight.” - Tucker Carlson

skianth16

  • All American
  • *****
  • Posts: 2307
Re: Investing Thread
« Reply #486 on: March 19, 2020, 10:15:01 AM »
I've never been all the big on bank stocks, but I was looking at Citi this morning a little bit. They're down +/- 50% in the last couple weeks. While it will definitely be rough for banks in the short-term, it's hard to not see this kind of drop as a great buying opportunity. Any thoughts from those who know the sector a little more than I do?

Elonsmusk

  • All American
  • *****
  • Posts: 2262
Re: Investing Thread
« Reply #487 on: March 19, 2020, 10:35:26 AM »
I've never been all the big on bank stocks, but I was looking at Citi this morning a little bit. They're down +/- 50% in the last couple weeks. While it will definitely be rough for banks in the short-term, it's hard to not see this kind of drop as a great buying opportunity. Any thoughts from those who know the sector a little more than I do?

What’s your investment strategy/stage in life?  There are a lot of stocks that have taken a 50% haircut the last month - so lots of options to choose from.


skianth16

  • All American
  • *****
  • Posts: 2307
Re: Investing Thread
« Reply #488 on: March 19, 2020, 12:44:47 PM »
What’s your investment strategy/stage in life?  There are a lot of stocks that have taken a 50% haircut the last month - so lots of options to choose from.

I'm still 30+ years from retirement, relatively high risk tolerance. I'm heavily invested in equities and equity funds with a smaller amount of fixed income funds.

I did see plenty of other options for stocks that have taken deeper losses than the overall market in recent weeks, but it's a little tricky to figure out who has the best path to getting back to pre-covid prices.

Silkk the Shaka

  • All American
  • *****
  • Posts: 5376
Re: Investing Thread
« Reply #489 on: March 19, 2020, 03:30:01 PM »
I'm still 30+ years from retirement, relatively high risk tolerance. I'm heavily invested in equities and equity funds with a smaller amount of fixed income funds.

I did see plenty of other options for stocks that have taken deeper losses than the overall market in recent weeks, but it's a little tricky to figure out who has the best path to getting back to pre-covid prices.

Tough to know before you see all the bailout proposals, how they will affect the consumer, which industries will be targeted, what kind of phased lock-down will be going on locally/globally and for how long, etc.

As a general rule, look for businesses without high fixed cost structures and no large near-term debt maturities that they wouldn't be able to meet with a 50%+ cut to revenue and projected cash on hand at the time

Elonsmusk

  • All American
  • *****
  • Posts: 2262
Re: Investing Thread
« Reply #490 on: March 19, 2020, 04:03:09 PM »
I'm still 30+ years from retirement, relatively high risk tolerance. I'm heavily invested in equities and equity funds with a smaller amount of fixed income funds.

I did see plenty of other options for stocks that have taken deeper losses than the overall market in recent weeks, but it's a little tricky to figure out who has the best path to getting back to pre-covid prices.

Think Ellenson Family Reunion gives some good advice above.  This dip is a great thing for you being 30 years out.  If you are a buy and hold guy, ideas I'd present would be:  AMRN, ETSY, ULTA, RVLV, SQ, BA, SHOP, CTAS.

Higher volatility biotechs I like (a sector invest 50% of my portfolio):  AXSM, FLGT, GNPX, NVTA, SAVA, AQST, IGMS.

Bloom Energy (BE) is also an interesting company with a bright future IMO.

Invest at your own risk above.  Just sharing some ideas.

Galway Eagle

  • All American
  • *****
  • Posts: 10461
Re: Investing Thread
« Reply #491 on: March 19, 2020, 04:09:00 PM »
Think Ellenson Family Reunion gives some good advice above.  This dip is a great thing for you being 30 years out.  If you are a buy and hold guy, ideas I'd present would be:  AMRN, ETSY, ULTA, RVLV, SQ, BA, SHOP, CTAS.

Higher volatility biotechs I like (a sector invest 50% of my portfolio):  AXSM, FLGT, GNPX, NVTA, SAVA, AQST, IGMS.

Bloom Energy (BE) is also an interesting company with a bright future IMO.

Invest at your own risk above.  Just sharing some ideas.

I invested in BA just over 100 ago... I've regretted it ever since...
Maigh Eo for Sam

Elonsmusk

  • All American
  • *****
  • Posts: 2262
Re: Investing Thread
« Reply #492 on: March 19, 2020, 04:46:46 PM »
I invested in BA just over 100 ago... I've regretted it ever since...

I liked it at $200 but love it at $100. I actually don’t hold a position in BA but am going to add some when more dry powder arrives Friday.

BA will be fine long term. Don’t feel bad. Everyone has gotten battered the last month.

skianth16

  • All American
  • *****
  • Posts: 2307
Re: Investing Thread
« Reply #493 on: March 19, 2020, 07:44:49 PM »
Appreciate the advice, Ellenson and Elons. Lots of good stuff to think about.

Jockey

  • All American
  • *****
  • Posts: 2016
  • “We want to get rid of the ballots"
Re: Investing Thread
« Reply #494 on: March 19, 2020, 08:40:18 PM »
Starting to see reports about Senators dumping stock in late January and early February after receiving classified briefings about possible effects of Coronavirus on the country.

So they protected their OWN money while not warning Americans what was coming.

The Sultan of Semantics

  • All American
  • *****
  • Posts: 11528
  • "Private message me coward" - panda
Re: Investing Thread
« Reply #495 on: March 19, 2020, 08:44:23 PM »
Starting to see reports about Senators dumping stock in late January and early February after receiving classified briefings about possible effects of Coronavirus on the country.

So they protected their OWN money while not warning Americans what was coming.

Yep. Trades on 1/27 after receiving a briefing on 1/24.
“True patriotism hates injustice in its own land more than anywhere else.” - Clarence Darrow

rocket surgeon

  • All American
  • *****
  • Posts: 3660
  • NA of course
Re: Investing Thread
« Reply #496 on: March 19, 2020, 09:15:04 PM »
Yep. Trades on 1/27 after receiving a briefing on 1/24.

Always wondered why people devoted their lives to “public service”.

  Cough, ahemmm hack hack

I’m sure this goes on more often than is reported, but wtf??

  I don’t care who or what party.  There should be severe penalties
don't...don't don't don't don't

curbina

  • Starter
  • ***
  • Posts: 192
Re: Investing Thread
« Reply #497 on: March 19, 2020, 09:18:35 PM »
Bill Ackman comes on CNBC, preaches INSANE doom and gloom, says the only way the market recovers is a 30 day shutdown, touts his positions while driving prices lower because Pershing Square is in buying mode...then caps it off by saying he took out a bunch of cash from the bank last month.  Just a complete douchebag of an interview all things considered.

Sorry, I don’t consider Bill Ackman to be a douchebag.
“You will never reach your destination if you stop and throw stones at every dog that barks.”
- Winston S. Churchill

Hards Alumni

  • All American
  • *****
  • Posts: 6583
Re: Investing Thread
« Reply #498 on: March 19, 2020, 09:56:41 PM »
Always wondered why people devoted their lives to “public service”.

  Cough, ahemmm hack hack

I’m sure this goes on more often than is reported, but wtf??

  I don’t care who or what party.  There should be severe penalties

On that we can agree. 

JWags85

  • All American
  • *****
  • Posts: 2980
Re: Investing Thread
« Reply #499 on: March 19, 2020, 10:05:15 PM »
Sorry, I don’t consider Bill Ackman to be a douchebag.

Lol of course you don’t. You’re about the only person I’ve read with that opinion. But fits everything else you’ve provided in this thread.