Investing Thread

[GooooMarquette]

If you think about it, Amazon is in almost perfect shape to benefit from this.

People aren't going out to shop -- hello, Amazon!

People aren't going to the movies, sporting events or other entertainment venues -- hello, Amazon Prime TV!

Plus, there's the highly profitable AWS for corporate clients and other services.

I don't own AMZN. I'm mostly a dividend investor, and the shares have always seemed too pricey. But EPS growth is estimated at 22%, 40% and 37% the next three fiscal years, and that's pretty darn attractive. Might even be an understatement.

Hmmm.

And they're hiring...

https://blog.aboutamazon.com/operations/amazon-opening-100000-new-roles

[jesmu84]

Mark Cuban on Corona bailouts:

https://twitter.com/mcuban/status/1239901248167522304?s=19

[WarriorDad]

I bought JETS as a long play.

[MU82]

I bought AMZN, AMGN, DLR, and a touch of SPY on the 12th.  AMZN has held up OK (down about 5%) while AMGN and DLR are up.  SPY, not so much.

AMZN, DLR, and BABA on my list for tomorrow, possibly small adds to GOOGL and CSCO.

I have a plan that I am trying to have the fortitude to stick to.  In two years we can revisit whether is was brilliant, idiotic, or somewhere in between.

Important to have a plan and work it, TS. I wish you good fortune.

[TSmith34, Inc.]

Important to have a plan and work it, TS. I wish you good fortune.

Thanks very much.  Are you thinking of doing an article on AMZN?

AMZN, DLR, and AMGN all bounced pretty strongly so far today so I am holding off on buying more for now.  GOOGL and CSCO still watching, up today but not a lot.

[jesmu84]

Payroll tax cuts?

https://twitter.com/paulkrugman/status/1239922886388985857?s=19

https://twitter.com/PeteThePlanner/status/1239926393015799808?s=19

IMO - this is a convenient step towards defunding SS/Medicare long-term. And, even if it's not, I think writing checks directly to Americans is a better way to distribute.

[TSmith34, Inc.]

Payroll tax cuts?

https://twitter.com/paulkrugman/status/1239922886388985857?s=19

https://twitter.com/PeteThePlanner/status/1239926393015799808?s=19

IMO - this is a convenient step towards defunding SS/Medicare long-term. And, even if it's not, I think writing checks directly to Americans is a better way to distribute.

A payroll tax cut is rather stupid to address the current issue.  For one thing, it takes a long time to trickle into the economy.  It also does nothing for all the workers temporarily out of a job.

Dumb.

[Hards Alumni]

Agreed.  Just pay the people, keep them with food and housing and let this blow over.

People who don't get food behave exactly as you'd expect them to.  Very dangerously.

[mu03eng]

Theoretically this is a short term event, there is an argument to be made with the right collection of policies that the recession will be a V (I mean both economic and healthcare/social policies). One of the key economic policies would be to execute an immediate fiscal stimulus to float spending for say the next month. I think that policy should be a direct pay check, whatever the number is(not sure why $1000 but sure) and hell you even means test it if you are trying to be a little bit fiscally conservative.

If this is a long term crisis(months) we've got a whole bunch of other problems that this won't solve so make the short term play and hope we can move close to normal as rapidly as possible.

[Hards Alumni]

Theoretically this is a short term event, there is an argument to be made with the right collection of policies that the recession will be a V (I mean both economic and healthcare/social policies). One of the key economic policies would be to execute an immediate fiscal stimulus to float spending for say the next month. I think that policy should be a direct pay check, whatever the number is(not sure why $1000 but sure) and hell you even means test it if you are trying to be a little bit fiscally conservative.

If this is a long term crisis(months) we've got a whole bunch of other problems that this won't solve so make the short term play and hope we can move close to normal as rapidly as possible.

This is my hope as well. 

[The Sultan]

Payroll tax cuts?

https://twitter.com/paulkrugman/status/1239922886388985857?s=19

https://twitter.com/PeteThePlanner/status/1239926393015799808?s=19

IMO - this is a convenient step towards defunding SS/Medicare long-term. And, even if it's not, I think writing checks directly to Americans is a better way to distribute.

We have done this before.  I can't recall when, but didn't we decrease SS to 4.2% from 6.2% for a year or so?

[forgetful]

We might be looking at a $3T deficit this year.

[MU Fan in Connecticut]

Theoretically this is a short term event, there is an argument to be made with the right collection of policies that the recession will be a V (I mean both economic and healthcare/social policies). One of the key economic policies would be to execute an immediate fiscal stimulus to float spending for say the next month. I think that policy should be a direct pay check, whatever the number is(not sure why $1000 but sure) and hell you even means test it if you are trying to be a little bit fiscally conservative.

If this is a long term crisis(months) we've got a whole bunch of other problems that this won't solve so make the short term play and hope we can move close to normal as rapidly as possible.

Agreed.

[The Sultan]

Theoretically this is a short term event, there is an argument to be made with the right collection of policies that the recession will be a V (I mean both economic and healthcare/social policies). One of the key economic policies would be to execute an immediate fiscal stimulus to float spending for say the next month. I think that policy should be a direct pay check, whatever the number is(not sure why $1000 but sure) and hell you even means test it if you are trying to be a little bit fiscally conservative.

If this is a long term crisis(months) we've got a whole bunch of other problems that this won't solve so make the short term play and hope we can move close to normal as rapidly as possible.

1. Give everyone $1,000
2. Eliminate the Social Security Wage Cap for 2020

You've just means tested it.

[Dish]

I don't think anyone necessarily knows on this, but hypothetically on the $1000, would each kid qualify to? So in our house there's 5 of us, so are we getting $5k? Would the Feds know based on the number of people (spouse/dependents) on our 2019 tax return?

I think the Feds did something similar to this in 2008ish, did they send hard checks out to everyone? I seem to remember something like that happening, but I could be wrong.

[Chili]

I don't think anyone necessarily knows on this, but hypothetically on the $1000, would each kid qualify to? So in our house there's 5 of us, so are we getting $5k? Would the Feds know based on the number of people (spouse/dependents) on our 2019 tax return?

I think the Feds did something similar to this in 2008ish, did they send hard checks out to everyone? I seem to remember something like that happening, but I could be wrong.

to each person 18+ who is not a dependent is how it was positioned (i believe - racking my brain here).

[Hards Alumni]

to each person 18+ who is not a dependent is how it was positioned (i believe - racking my brain here).

Yikes, so families who need it most are hit hardest.

[Chili]

Yikes, so families who need it most are hit hardest.

Found this online:

How Stimulus Checks Work

The last use of stimulus checks occurred when the U.S. economy entered a severe recession after the financial crisis of 2008. The Obama government estimated that sending out checks would prevent unemployment rates from going beyond 8 percent.

The government sent out checks in 2009 to those with at least $3,000 in qualifying income from, or in combination with, Social Security benefits, Veterans Affairs benefits, Railroad Retirement benefits and earned income. The checks amounted to:

• Eligible individuals—between $300 and $600
  Joint filers—between $600 and $1,200
  With eligible children—an additional $300 for each qualifying child

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/stimulus-check.asp

[MU82]

Thanks very much.  Are you thinking of doing an article on AMZN?

AMZN, DLR, and AMGN all bounced pretty strongly so far today so I am holding off on buying more for now.  GOOGL and CSCO still watching, up today but not a lot.

The site I write most for, I write for the dividend-investing section. It's not impossible that I would ever write about AMZN, but not likely either.

Stock I picked for our most recent buy was TJX (company behind TJ Maxx, Marshalls, etc). Actually writing about em today.

[TSmith34, Inc.]

The site I write most for, I write for the dividend-investing section. It's not impossible that I would ever write about AMZN, but not likely either.

Stock I picked for our most recent buy was TJX (company behind TJ Maxx, Marshalls, etc). Actually writing about em today.

Oh yeah, I am very familiar with your articles on that site.  But just because you typically focus on dividend payers doesn't mean you can't write about others.  In fact, it could be a good sort of counterpoint that people shouldn't get locked into only one kind of investing if a different type of opportunity is staring them in the face.  Just my 2c.

[MU Fan in Connecticut]

This morning's news in Connecticut was reported there have been 30,000 jobless claims since Friday.
They have been averaging 2,000 week for a long period of time.
I'm sure it's the same everywhere.

[GB Warrior]

It'll only grow as people who have been furloughed or hourly workers who are technically on "0-hour assignments" join the unemployment pool. To say nothing of gig workers. All of this goes to Cuban's point earlier in the thread. Anything that happens at a corporate level needs to be to bolster cashflow but with severe restrictions on where that money can go (i.e. no buybacks).

The trouble the airlines face is that stimulus checks to consumers simply won't bolster their industry; there's just no amount of money that's going to result in demand generation right now.

Re: the stimulus, it could be means tested, but most economists cite a lot of risks there, especially given unique circumstances.  Basing on last year's tax returns don't hold if you're, say, in sales and commission based. Most economists seem to agree that a broad, sweeping measure makes the most sense to get relief out fast, as the government doesn't have to add the step of checking and verifying income levels.

My stance is that it should be universal, but with individuals who are still in the workforce able to submit that money back for a treasury bond so that the cash is re-deployable to lower income levels in subsequent waves. My wife and I both remain gainfully employed at home, and thus are not the target of this measure. We'd reinvest some of it back into restaurants and the local economy, but some of it would inevitably go to savings and investments, which is the COMPLETE opposite effect you want. 

[ZiggysFryBoy]

It'll only grow as people who have been furloughed or hourly workers who are technically on "0-hour assignments" join the unemployment pool. To say nothing of gig workers. All of this goes to Cuban's point earlier in the thread. Anything that happens at a corporate level needs to be to bolster cashflow but with severe restrictions on where that money can go (i.e. no buybacks).

The trouble the airlines face is that stimulus checks to consumers simply won't bolster their industry; there's just no amount of money that's going to result in demand generation right now.

Re: the stimulus, it could be means tested, but most economists cite a lot of risks there, especially given unique circumstances.  Basing on last year's tax returns don't hold if you're, say, in sales and commission based. Most economists seem to agree that a broad, sweeping measure makes the most sense to get relief out fast, as the government doesn't have to add the step of checking and verifying income levels.

My stance is that it should be universal, but with individuals who are still in the workforce able to submit that money back for a treasury bond so that the cash is re-deployable to lower income levels in subsequent waves. My wife and I both remain gainfully employed at home, and thus are not the target of this measure. We'd reinvest some of it back into restaurants and the local economy, but some of it would inevitably go to savings and investments, which is the COMPLETE opposite effect you want.

100% agree.  Well stated.

[Hards Alumni]

100% agree.  Well stated.

+1

[GooooMarquette]

+1

+2