collapse

* Recent Posts

Dallas bars tonite by Marquette Gyros
[Today at 06:59:41 AM]


2024 Coaching Carousel by Viper
[Today at 06:58:48 AM]


2024 Transfer Portal by The Sultan of Semantics
[Today at 06:46:05 AM]


Chicago bars for Fri game by MarquetteDano
[Today at 06:44:40 AM]


Are we still recruiting anyone for the 24-25 season. by Jay Bee
[Today at 06:42:08 AM]


2024 NCAA Tournament Thread by Uncle Rico
[Today at 06:32:48 AM]


Big East 23-24 NCAA and NIT Results by tower912
[Today at 06:21:27 AM]

Please Register - It's FREE!

The absolute only thing required for this FREE registration is a valid e-mail address.  We keep all your information confidential and will NEVER give or sell it to anyone else.
Login to get rid of this box (and ads) , or register NOW!


Author Topic: Investing Thread  (Read 288374 times)

TSmith34, Inc.

  • All American
  • *****
  • Posts: 5086
Re: Investing Thread
« Reply #825 on: May 26, 2020, 10:41:09 AM »
Mr. Market has lost his mind.

Good luck.
82, do you follow Jim Sloan on SA? Always a good read, and he had a piece out today looking back not only at 1918 but also similar "sudden stop" events and their impact on the markets. Interesting stuff.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4350047-things-different-in-1918-comparisons-2020-uncover-crucial-question?utm_medium=email&utm_source=seeking_alpha&mail_subject=jim-sloan-things-were-different-in-1918-but-comparisons-with-2020-uncover-a-crucial-question&utm_campaign=rta-author-article&utm_content=link-1
If you think for one second that I am comparing the USA to China you have bumped your hard.

JWags85

  • All American
  • *****
  • Posts: 2980
Re: Investing Thread
« Reply #826 on: May 26, 2020, 07:31:03 PM »
Mr. Market has lost his mind.

Good luck.

Never underestimate the Fed and their money printing machine. Toss in a bit of FOMO and you have a relentless bull recovery. I’ve gotten my teeth kicked in the last few weeks disbelieving it. You can see how manipulated things are right now. Buying frenzy overnight, then a listless drift throughout the day.

“Pinning” major stocks on Friday is a common practice by market makers to limit risk in open option positions. Often near big round numbers where open option interest clusters.  You can normally get a sense by late afternoon on a Friday. NFLX can’t break away from 425, BA sticking to 130, TSLA to 825, etc...  but lately it’s gotten obscene, you can predict some of the larger name closing prices by noon CST, with strong accuracy. What that tells me is that the invisible hand that moves the market does its business and then gets out (not like the Fed buys all day, nor would funds piggybacking it), and then an otherwise undecided, low volume, listless market gets corralled rather easily by MMS.  You’ll see stocks move up with the S&P or DIA then suddenly not budge even when indexes push up or down. It’s gotten pretty ridiculous, more so than I can ever recall seeing in the last 5-10 years.

MU82

  • All American
  • *****
  • Posts: 22730
Re: Investing Thread
« Reply #827 on: May 26, 2020, 10:02:41 PM »
82, do you follow Jim Sloan on SA? Always a good read, and he had a piece out today looking back not only at 1918 but also similar "sudden stop" events and their impact on the markets. Interesting stuff.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4350047-things-different-in-1918-comparisons-2020-uncover-crucial-question?utm_medium=email&utm_source=seeking_alpha&mail_subject=jim-sloan-things-were-different-in-1918-but-comparisons-with-2020-uncover-a-crucial-question&utm_campaign=rta-author-article&utm_content=link-1

I don't follow him because his investing style is different from mine, but I do occasionally read his big-picture stuff and I saw this one.

It was interesting, but I'm still not sure exactly how it translates to much info I can use in 2020.

Never underestimate the Fed and their money printing machine. Toss in a bit of FOMO and you have a relentless bull recovery. I’ve gotten my teeth kicked in the last few weeks disbelieving it. You can see how manipulated things are right now. Buying frenzy overnight, then a listless drift throughout the day.

“Pinning” major stocks on Friday is a common practice by market makers to limit risk in open option positions. Often near big round numbers where open option interest clusters.  You can normally get a sense by late afternoon on a Friday. NFLX can’t break away from 425, BA sticking to 130, TSLA to 825, etc...  but lately it’s gotten obscene, you can predict some of the larger name closing prices by noon CST, with strong accuracy. What that tells me is that the invisible hand that moves the market does its business and then gets out (not like the Fed buys all day, nor would funds piggybacking it), and then an otherwise undecided, low volume, listless market gets corralled rather easily by MMS.  You’ll see stocks move up with the S&P or DIA then suddenly not budge even when indexes push up or down. It’s gotten pretty ridiculous, more so than I can ever recall seeing in the last 5-10 years.

I hear ya, my friend, and I agree.

I am thankful I already have met most of my investing goals, and I am pretty cautious now. Trying to stay somewhat invested while also protecting my principal. It's never easy, and this market is downright scary IMHO.
“It’s not how white men fight.” - Tucker Carlson

MarquetteDano

  • Registered User
  • All American
  • *****
  • Posts: 3231
Re: Investing Thread
« Reply #828 on: May 26, 2020, 10:17:57 PM »
Never underestimate the Fed and their money printing machine. Toss in a bit of FOMO and you have a relentless bull recovery. I’ve gotten my teeth kicked in the last few weeks disbelieving it. You can see how manipulated things are right now. Buying frenzy overnight, then a listless drift throughout the day.

“Pinning” major stocks on Friday is a common practice by market makers to limit risk in open option positions. Often near big round numbers where open option interest clusters.  You can normally get a sense by late afternoon on a Friday. NFLX can’t break away from 425, BA sticking to 130, TSLA to 825, etc...  but lately it’s gotten obscene, you can predict some of the larger name closing prices by noon CST, with strong accuracy. What that tells me is that the invisible hand that moves the market does its business and then gets out (not like the Fed buys all day, nor would funds piggybacking it), and then an otherwise undecided, low volume, listless market gets corralled rather easily by MMS.  You’ll see stocks move up with the S&P or DIA then suddenly not budge even when indexes push up or down. It’s gotten pretty ridiculous, more so than I can ever recall seeing in the last 5-10 years.

Thanks for the breakdown.

1990Warrior

  • Team Captain
  • ****
  • Posts: 385
Re: Investing Thread
« Reply #829 on: May 29, 2020, 07:17:45 AM »
Just wondering, has anyone  changed changed their asset allocation in their long term investments for retirement.  I am a stogy Vanguard investor who was about 70/30 stock/bond in index funds.  I had no problem dollar cost averaging through market corrections.  I recently flipped to 30/70 and am wondering why I am 30% in stocks with little upside and lots of uncertainty ahead.

I still think stocks will be higher than they are now in about 10 years when I plan on starting retirement, and "stay the course" will prevail, but it is going to be an interesting ride. 

MU82

  • All American
  • *****
  • Posts: 22730
Re: Investing Thread
« Reply #830 on: May 29, 2020, 11:57:40 AM »
Just wondering, has anyone  changed changed their asset allocation in their long term investments for retirement.  I am a stogy Vanguard investor who was about 70/30 stock/bond in index funds.  I had no problem dollar cost averaging through market corrections.  I recently flipped to 30/70 and am wondering why I am 30% in stocks with little upside and lots of uncertainty ahead.

I still think stocks will be higher than they are now in about 10 years when I plan on starting retirement, and "stay the course" will prevail, but it is going to be an interesting ride.

I feel your pain.

I have my highest non-stock allocation in many, many years, only about 60% stocks now. I feel fortunate because I'm not still trying to build a retirement portfolio, but I am trying to safeguard what I have while not giving up all growth. Tricky times.
“It’s not how white men fight.” - Tucker Carlson

Tortuga94

  • Walk-On
  • *
  • Posts: 16
Re: Investing Thread
« Reply #831 on: May 29, 2020, 12:35:36 PM »
Just wondering, has anyone  changed changed their asset allocation in their long term investments for retirement.  I am a stogy Vanguard investor who was about 70/30 stock/bond in index funds.  I had no problem dollar cost averaging through market corrections.  I recently flipped to 30/70 and am wondering why I am 30% in stocks with little upside and lots of uncertainty ahead.

I still think stocks will be higher than they are now in about 10 years when I plan on starting retirement, and "stay the course" will prevail, but it is going to be an interesting ride.

If your time horizon is 10 plus years out and you're pretty sure stocks will be higher then, then why not stay fully invested in a portfolio that is appropriate for your risk tolerance. Figure out where your risk tolerance lies and then invest accordingly. Re-balance periodically to sell when things are good and buy when markets go down. Stay invested, don't try to time the market. There have been many studies done that show the reason individual investors underperform the markets is because we let emotions drive our investment decisions. I don't pretend to have a crystal ball and know that I'm not smart enough to time the market consistently. I've been managing money for about 20 years now, this is my 3rd recession, and they've all been painful and scary, but each time our advice to our clients has been the same. Don't panic, this too shall pass and the markets will eventually continue to do well for us in the long-term. Keep in mind that if we go back to 1950 we have had 10 bull markets and 10 bear markets. The average length of the bear markets has lasted 1.3 years and has an average cumulative loss of 36%. The average bull market has lasted 5.9 years and has an average cumulative total return of 184%.

MU82

  • All American
  • *****
  • Posts: 22730
Re: Investing Thread
« Reply #832 on: May 29, 2020, 01:16:42 PM »
If your time horizon is 10 plus years out and you're pretty sure stocks will be higher then, then why not stay fully invested in a portfolio that is appropriate for your risk tolerance. Figure out where your risk tolerance lies and then invest accordingly. Re-balance periodically to sell when things are good and buy when markets go down. Stay invested, don't try to time the market. There have been many studies done that show the reason individual investors underperform the markets is because we let emotions drive our investment decisions. I don't pretend to have a crystal ball and know that I'm not smart enough to time the market consistently. I've been managing money for about 20 years now, this is my 3rd recession, and they've all been painful and scary, but each time our advice to our clients has been the same. Don't panic, this too shall pass and the markets will eventually continue to do well for us in the long-term. Keep in mind that if we go back to 1950 we have had 10 bull markets and 10 bear markets. The average length of the bear markets has lasted 1.3 years and has an average cumulative loss of 36%. The average bull market has lasted 5.9 years and has an average cumulative total return of 184%.

This is excellent advice for any long-term investor with decent risk tolerance and still many years to retirement. (Could be good for others, too, but especially for those folks.)

Thanks for posting.
“It’s not how white men fight.” - Tucker Carlson

1990Warrior

  • Team Captain
  • ****
  • Posts: 385
Re: Investing Thread
« Reply #833 on: May 29, 2020, 01:22:52 PM »
I had a bad feeling when I made the switch since the Vanguard approach has worked well.  The issue is that I am a scientist and think that another wave will hit when the seasons change.  I can deal with economic cycles just fine - pandemic uncertainty not so much.

My thinking is that I would like to restore my asset allocation, but will do so gradually once a certain amount of time passes (I am not really targeting a level on the S&P) - hopefully a mass produced vaccine will be on the horizon by next spring.

vogue65

  • All American
  • *****
  • Posts: 1046
Re: Investing Thread
« Reply #834 on: May 29, 2020, 11:13:03 PM »
I had a bad feeling when I made the switch since the Vanguard approach has worked well.  The issue is that I am a scientist and think that another wave will hit when the seasons change.  I can deal with economic cycles just fine - pandemic uncertainty not so much.

My thinking is that I would like to restore my asset allocation, but will do so gradually once a certain amount of time passes (I am not really targeting a level on the S&P) - hopefully a mass produced vaccine will be on the horizon by next spring.

I enjoy reading all these experts.  I'm retired, been there done that.  I have a young friend just out of college investing in video games and making a killing, ha. 

I'm far from wealthy, I live well.  House paid for, apartment in Italy, life is good.

Had a professor in grad. school who said that the wealthy never invest in the market.  What?

I'm talking wealthy, not us.   They invest in T bills and land.  Simple minded, perhaps.  So, I  "gamble" with a few stocks for fun, for cocktail conversation.   The rest is in cash, T bills.  So if I ÷  my burn rate into my principle, I'm covered until I'm 94.  I'm 77. 

I spent many years in actuarial science, and that is my approach.  The trust officer would like a little more action, ha. 
You're welcome, I doubt you will take it. 

JWags85

  • All American
  • *****
  • Posts: 2980
Re: Investing Thread
« Reply #835 on: May 30, 2020, 12:42:07 AM »
I had a bad feeling when I made the switch since the Vanguard approach has worked well.  The issue is that I am a scientist and think that another wave will hit when the seasons change.  I can deal with economic cycles just fine - pandemic uncertainty not so much.

My thinking is that I would like to restore my asset allocation, but will do so gradually once a certain amount of time passes (I am not really targeting a level on the S&P) - hopefully a mass produced vaccine will be on the horizon by next spring.

You’ll be fine. Even with a second wave.  The Fed has made it clear they will continue to buy and backstop the market until things are good again. Powell blatantly said that a Fed injection is an alternative to a vaccine in the near term.

Hards Alumni

  • All American
  • *****
  • Posts: 6583
Re: Investing Thread
« Reply #836 on: May 30, 2020, 09:31:53 AM »
You’ll be fine. Even with a second wave.  The Fed has made it clear they will continue to buy and backstop the market until things are good again. Powell blatantly said that a Fed injection is an alternative to a vaccine in the near term.

Keep printing them dollars.  Hope people use em.

-America's fiscal plan

manny31

  • Starter
  • ***
  • Posts: 245
Re: Investing Thread
« Reply #837 on: May 30, 2020, 08:43:49 PM »
IMO market has come too far too fast...My opinion and $3.00 will get you a cup of coffee at Starbucks...
If folks are familiar with the pitfalls of investor behavior in turbulent times why don’t they throw a collar on? A collar is an options term for a strategy in which you buy a put and sell a call versus being long the underlying.... Pretty simple yet effective. Put a collar on and you can sleep at night, pay attention and manage the short call and you are all good...

rocket surgeon

  • All American
  • *****
  • Posts: 3660
  • NA of course
Re: Investing Thread
« Reply #838 on: June 05, 2020, 01:47:36 PM »
CCL is a ballsy buy, rocket. I hope it does great for you.

at $13/sh it might have been a bllsy move, but they did have the table set nicely with a lot of cash on hand  what better way for people to get out of the city and go on a cruise, eyn'a? 

up 22% or so today!  also marathon oil, boeing, fastenol, home depot and P & G have been long holds for me.  yes, i have some stinkers, but these guys are holding me.   along with family dollar(bought at $70) GE, another long hold from $6 making a comeback

don't...don't don't don't don't

MU82

  • All American
  • *****
  • Posts: 22730
Re: Investing Thread
« Reply #839 on: June 05, 2020, 03:32:05 PM »
at $13/sh it might have been a bllsy move, but they did have the table set nicely with a lot of cash on hand  what better way for people to get out of the city and go on a cruise, eyn'a? 

up 22% or so today!  also marathon oil, boeing, fastenol, home depot and P & G have been long holds for me.  yes, i have some stinkers, but these guys are holding me.   along with family dollar(bought at $70) GE, another long hold from $6 making a comeback

Nicely done, sir.

Generally, the market is absolutely out of its mind right now, totally unsupported by fundamentals. But hell, I'm enjoying the ride. Might even start doing some selective selling next week if skyrocket continues. And if it goes the other way to match the actual reality, and we have another crash, I can do some buying (though that's unlikely with the Fed now going full tilt).
“It’s not how white men fight.” - Tucker Carlson

rocket surgeon

  • All American
  • *****
  • Posts: 3660
  • NA of course
Re: Investing Thread
« Reply #840 on: June 05, 2020, 06:35:31 PM »
Nicely done, sir.

Generally, the market is absolutely out of its mind right now, totally unsupported by fundamentals. But hell, I'm enjoying the ride. Might even start doing some selective selling next week if skyrocket continues. And if it goes the other way to match the actual reality, and we have another crash, I can do some buying (though that's unlikely with the Fed now going full tilt).

seems like people are afraid to miss the bus.  there will probably be some corrections, but as i stated, carnival is one that is set up and ready to go.  my opinion-i see $30 easy, then leveling off until it can prove that people are willing to use some disposable income and jobs continue to be revived.  the stress from the virus shut down and now the floyd situation-people need an escape.  plus ccl is probably hiring too.  win win  this was a $60 stock 2 years ago
don't...don't don't don't don't

Bad_Reporter

  • All American
  • *****
  • Posts: 673
Re: Investing Thread
« Reply #841 on: June 07, 2020, 09:25:27 AM »
I enjoy reading all these experts.  I'm retired, been there done that.  I have a young friend just out of college investing in video games and making a killing, ha. 

I'm far from wealthy, I live well.  House paid for, apartment in Italy, life is good.

Had a professor in grad. school who said that the wealthy never invest in the market.  What?

I'm talking wealthy, not us.   They invest in T bills and land.  Simple minded, perhaps.  So, I  "gamble" with a few stocks for fun, for cocktail conversation.   The rest is in cash, T bills.  So if I ÷  my burn rate into my principle, I'm covered until I'm 94.  I'm 77. 

I spent many years in actuarial science, and that is my approach.  The trust officer would like a little more action, ha. 
You're welcome, I doubt you will take it.

Interesting take on wealthy people.  The wealthy individuals I know (20 million plus net worth) invest mostly in stocks, etf’s, etc.

One of them was just telling me yesterday they bought around 150,000 shares of NTG around $1.15 and it’s currently up to $23.  Granted the reason it’s at $23 is because they did a 10 to 1 stock split.  I guess everyone’s risk tolerance is different, though.

JWags85

  • All American
  • *****
  • Posts: 2980
Re: Investing Thread
« Reply #842 on: June 07, 2020, 02:18:33 PM »
Interesting take on wealthy people.  The wealthy individuals I know (20 million plus net worth) invest mostly in stocks, etf’s, etc.

One of them was just telling me yesterday they bought around 150,000 shares of NTG around $1.15 and it’s currently up to $23.  Granted the reason it’s at $23 is because they did a 10 to 1 stock split.  I guess everyone’s risk tolerance is different, though.

This is much more realistic. Sounds like that professor didn’t know wealthy people or had a small sample at best. Diversification is key. Baskets of equities, ETFs, commodities, and Forex when done properly.

The main outside investor in my company was the first President of a mega tech company you all know. He hasnt has to work since he “retired” in the late 80s in his late 30s.  I remember specifically saying that not investing in the stock market, when you had the capital to “spread your risk” was one of the most foolish things an affluent person could do.

My former roommate is in PWM for high net worth customers at Northern Trust and same thing is true.

Do the wealthy invest tons in land/real estate? Absolutely. In T-bills? Probably. Do they avoid the stock market by and large or all together? Not a chance

MU82

  • All American
  • *****
  • Posts: 22730
Re: Investing Thread
« Reply #843 on: June 07, 2020, 04:16:28 PM »
My wealthiest friends own a ton of real estate. Second, third, fourth homes for themselves to play at, but also lots of rental properties.

A couple of my buddies were buying them left and right in 2009, 2010 and 2011, especially in Phoenix and Florida. Unfortunately, money was tight for moi back then, because that was a great idea.
“It’s not how white men fight.” - Tucker Carlson

rocket surgeon

  • All American
  • *****
  • Posts: 3660
  • NA of course
Re: Investing Thread
« Reply #844 on: June 07, 2020, 04:45:46 PM »
i don't know what the definitions of upper, upper mid and middle class are, but i sure do not view myself as "wealthy"  i have been able to provide well for my family and able to enjoy some nice things.  if not for the economic blow-out of 2008-09, it never would have crossed my mind to buy a 2nd home.  i was just in the right place at the right time.  my parents had been going down to lake havasu city for 25 years.  i was somewhat familiar with havasu and really liked it!

   after 7 years, it rebounded by 40%.  couple that with the 20% down, 7 years of pay down on the mortgage and we eagerly sold and reinvested in a little bigger/better in surprise, Az.  probably the best all around choices i've ever made.  it sure as hell saved my sanity from march 17-april 27
don't...don't don't don't don't

Keithtisbarf

  • Walk-On
  • *
  • Posts: 46
Re: Investing Thread
« Reply #845 on: June 07, 2020, 06:25:17 PM »
Those who have monetary wealth are normally invested in larger investments like private equity offerings and real estate. They also have a wealth manager. They’re not online attempting to day trade stocks. 😂

Not A Serious Person

  • All American
  • *****
  • Posts: 1144
Re: Investing Thread
« Reply #846 on: June 08, 2020, 12:48:40 AM »
Those who have monetary wealth are normally invested in larger investments like private equity offerings and real estate. They also have a wealth manager. They’re not online attempting to day trade stocks. 😂

This guy is day trading online.  He says he made $5 million in the last two months and is now the greatest day trader of all time.

Oh, I also read that his periscope live streaming of him day trading all day has a larger audience than CNBC.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/im-worlds-greatest-day-trader-barstools-dave-portnoy-epitomizes-retails-takeover-rigged
Western Progressives have one worldview, the correct one.

JWags85

  • All American
  • *****
  • Posts: 2980
Re: Investing Thread
« Reply #847 on: June 08, 2020, 12:56:44 AM »
This guy is day trading online.  He says he made $5 million in the last two months and is now the greatest day trader of all time.

Oh, I also read that his periscope live streaming of him day trading all day has a larger audience than CNBC.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/im-worlds-greatest-day-trader-barstools-dave-portnoy-epitomizes-retails-takeover-rigged

Actual profits Portnoy makes are secondary to the content he creates for his audience to consume via Periscope and otherwise. He’s an enormous draw to an engaged and passionate audience.  Pre-COVID, it was focused on major sporting events, gambling, and other associated trips. In the absence of that, day trading was a viable content source. He was pulling huge numbers of viewers even as he got his head kicked in. Now he’s on a hot streak and making blustery comments cause it fits the character and the persona. It’s all kayfabe with real market wins and losses.

It’s hardly a representative example of how wealthy people invest.

I will say, it’s fascinating the reach. It took a mere 2 months before Barstool/Portnoy was popping up in all financial media and social accounts when that was never their space, save for a random appearance on MadMoney

Marquette Gyros

  • Starter
  • ***
  • Posts: 156
Re: Investing Thread
« Reply #848 on: June 22, 2020, 01:47:32 PM »
The above recs I made back on March 20 now up an aggregate 73%.  Of those, I'd still get in on AMRN, GNPX, SAVA, AQST, NVTA.  (All under $17).  I wouldn't expect a lot of movement up in near term for any, but over the course of the next year these have strong liklihood of delivering a 2x return aggregate.

NVTA!

MarquetteDano

  • Registered User
  • All American
  • *****
  • Posts: 3231
Re: Investing Thread
« Reply #849 on: June 22, 2020, 02:49:23 PM »
Do the wealthy invest tons in land/real estate? Absolutely. In T-bills? Probably. Do they avoid the stock market by and large or all together? Not a chance

I would also throw in private tiered (mezzanines) debt seems to be big with high net worth individuals as well.

 

feedback