Investing Thread

[ZiggysFryBoy]

The novelty of Zoom is long gone.  Business travel will be back soon.

[MU Fan in Connecticut]

The novelty of Zoom is long gone.  Business travel will be back soon.

A little Aretha?

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=Gi6yGuvKv_E

[MU Fan in Connecticut]

Could not agree more.  I mentioned it weeks back when people were talking about the upside of Zoom and MSFT Teams and how it would be the "death of traditional business travel".  Felt like it was written by techno evangelists, academics, or other people who dont have outward facing client relationships.  Especially when it comes to foreign customers/suppliers where there is a language difference.  I have people I chase for weeks to try and get on a call or the like.  And if I do, its minimally effective.  But if I travel to where they are, they clear big blocks of time, set up dinner reservations, and give me more information exchange than I would get in 4-6 months of electronic communication.  Hell, I have contacts at customers I talk to weekly via call or email, but the nature of the business and our relationship means I might see them once a year at a trade show.  Whereas I have people I see 3-4 times a year on visits but talk to 10-20% as much as I talk to the others.  Guess which ones I have a bigger relationship with and would do whatever I need in a pinch?

I see business consultants with travel cutbacks as clients see where they can save with Zoom and the like.  But not sales/account management/biz development, no chance

My expensive late fall trip to Malaysia - Singapore - India was great.  The market intelligence I gathered enabled me to lock up big business with 3 customers for the next 3 years.  Paid itself back.  And like you said when I get the email from them "can you help me with this ...... " I drop what I do and address right away.

[WarriorDad]

You know who else used these exact talking points, don't you?  If you're trying to stay ahead of the lie then you need to do better.

The search function here is pretty good.  Cannot find what you are referencing.  Typed in Aluminum and batteries and only one thing came up that was a day old.

[Hards Alumni]

The search function here is pretty good.  Cannot find what you are referencing.  Typed in Aluminum and batteries and only one thing came up that was a day old.

Cheeks

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Re: Stealing a Tesla in 30 seconds
« Reply #7 on: August 25, 2019, 01:00:28 PM »

    Quote

Quote from: Hards_Alumni on August 25, 2019, 12:46:59 PM

    Wow that's amazing, I bet they got really far with it too!

    Better not switch to electric cars based solely on this!

    /s

    But for real, you still climate change denying these days?


I never denied climate changing, it has always changed and always will regardless if man is here or not.  It always changes.

Good to see hockey stick Michael Mann lose his court case this week in the Canadian Supreme Court because he refused to turn over his data.  So strange that these guys with their models and data refuse to let others review their work....hmmm.   But yes, climate is always changing and that will never stop.  Jus like it is changing on Mercury, Venus, Mars, Etc, etc....crazy how, that works.   That’s why it is so much fun to read history of places on earth that went through ice ages, heat patterns, and then something totally different now only to have it change again in the future..  Life and climate is complex stuff, I’m glad I can emit carbon which plants need to live and not have huge car batteries left to destroy the environment later. My solar panels are working great to save me money, too.











Gee that was hard.

[vogue65]

Are you implying air travel is going to implode permanently?  People are going to stop flying?  The "transformational" overreactions in terms of travel, entertainment, and vacation are getting to be ridiculous.  For every person that says they wont fly for a LONG time, there are 2-3 that are looking to schedule trips for both work and pleasure.  Once a vaccine or treatment comes around, we will return to normal travel levels.  We've already doubled the air travel where we were at lows in April, wait till things start to open up.

BA survives because there are 2 major producers of long haul, large passenger volume planes in the world, and the barrier to entry is enormous.  Normal US travel volume is 2.5MM people a day.  We're currently seeing around 250K in May.  I struggle to see how that doesn't return to over 1MM by fall provided there isn't another wave of shutdowns.

There are some very real challenges that air travel faces in the short term, but challenges are just that, short term.  Maybe you see a decrease in some domestic business trips in favor of Zoom.  Maybe the next travel season or two is a bit lighter for holiday travel.  But look at the eagerness of people to return to EVERYTHING about their lives on the other side of this lockdown, travel wont be any different.  I honestly feel that the majority of people saying they wont travel or this will make them second guess getting on a plane or staying in a hotel, either are significantly older or in a susceptible group, or more likely not frequent travelers anyways.

The industry operates on very slim margins, except cargo.
Business travelers will travel, the old folks not so much.
As an example, the noon flights from Newark to West Palm have typically had a dozen folks in wheel chairs with their care givers. 
Another factor will be significant increases in the cost of cleaning the aircraft and other procedures resulting in an increase in ticket price and less demand for travel by air. 

[WarriorDad]

Cheeks

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Re: Stealing a Tesla in 30 seconds
« Reply #7 on: August 25, 2019, 01:00:28 PM »

    Quote

Quote from: Hards_Alumni on August 25, 2019, 12:46:59 PM

    Wow that's amazing, I bet they got really far with it too!

    Better not switch to electric cars based solely on this!

    /s

    But for real, you still climate change denying these days?


I never denied climate changing, it has always changed and always will regardless if man is here or not.  It always changes.

Good to see hockey stick Michael Mann lose his court case this week in the Canadian Supreme Court because he refused to turn over his data.  So strange that these guys with their models and data refuse to let others review their work....hmmm.   But yes, climate is always changing and that will never stop.  Jus like it is changing on Mercury, Venus, Mars, Etc, etc....crazy how, that works.   That’s why it is so much fun to read history of places on earth that went through ice ages, heat patterns, and then something totally different now only to have it change again in the future..  Life and climate is complex stuff, I’m glad I can emit carbon which plants need to live and not have huge car batteries left to destroy the environment later. My solar panels are working great to save me money, too.











Gee that was hard.

You said "You know who else used these exact talking points, don't you?  If you're trying to stay ahead of the lie then you need to do better."   I don't see anything in your copy and paste about Aluminum which would mean exact talking points is incorrect by you, a quality I find keeps coming up with too many of your comments. 

And there are concerns about battery disposal. If others are calling that out, they are right. 

[WarriorDad]

The industry operates on very slim margins, except cargo.
Business travelers will travel, the old folks not so much.
As an example, the noon flights from Newark to West Palm have typically had a dozen folks in wheel chairs with their care givers. 
Another factor will be significant increases in the cost of cleaning the aircraft and other procedures resulting in an increase in ticket price and less demand for travel by air.

Heading to the airport tomorrow.  My flight is about 75% full by looking at the seating chart to select the seat.

[vogue65]

Heading to the airport tomorrow.  My flight is about 75% full by looking at the seating chart to select the seat.

Correct, BUT, how many total seats are available between your two cities compared to six months ago?
How has the supply of seats been limited so your flight is marginally profitable?   At 75% I'd say your flight is probably at a loss, except for the cargo in the belly.  The industry is not sustainable as currently constituted.

[Hards Alumni]

You said "You know who else used these exact talking points, don't you?  If you're trying to stay ahead of the lie then you need to do better."   I don't see anything in your copy and paste about Aluminum which would mean exact talking points is incorrect by you, a quality I find keeps coming up with too many of your comments. 

And there are concerns about battery disposal. If others are calling that out, they are right.

[WarriorDad]

You keep making accusations and falling flat.  Reminds of one of the first encounters you had with me when you insisted MU would not even make the NIT.  Your reputation proceeds you.  Not particularly interested in carrying on with you as your mind is set incorrectly. Have fun with it.

[Hards Alumni]

You keep making accusations and falling flat.  Reminds of one of the first encounters you had with me when you insisted MU would not even make the NIT.  Your reputation proceeds you.  Not particularly interested in carrying on with you as your mind is set incorrectly. Have fun with it.

Getting sadder by the day, I figured you'd have reached rock bottom by now.

And the word is 'precedes'

[jficke13]

You keep making accusations and falling flat.  Reminds of one of the first encounters you had with me when you insisted MU would not even make the NIT.  Your reputation proceeds you.  Not particularly interested in carrying on with you as your mind is set incorrectly. Have fun with it.

Here's a reality for you: Lot's of people don't believe you are who you say you are. Credibility is earned and, for whatever reason, you seem not to have earned much of it.

Everyone could be very, very wrong though. You could be honest, earnest, and every one of the accusations leveled against you could be false.

There's a very simple solution. Dox yourself. I post under my name (or damn near enough of it for anyone with 1% of google to figure me out). Tell everyone who you are and shut everyone up.

I'd imagine at this point you're so tired of all the accusations that such an option would be looking mighty tempting.

[vogue65]

I think the best policy is to not go for the bait.
There are people who enjoy insulting others and winning useless debates.
I try to avoid negativity.

[Galway Eagle]

Here's a reality for you: Lot's of people don't believe you are who you say you are. Credibility is earned and, for whatever reason, you seem not to have earned much of it.

Everyone could be very, very wrong though. You could be honest, earnest, and every one of the accusations leveled against you could be false.

There's a very simple solution. Dox yourself. I post under my name (or damn near enough of it for anyone with 1% of google to figure me out). Tell everyone who you are and shut everyone up.

I'd imagine at this point you're so tired of all the accusations that such an option would be looking mighty tempting.

Not sure the best policy is to dox himself. At the end of the day it doesn't really matter if everyone thinks he's Chico's or not. If he is then it proves Chico's really has some issues and he gains nothing. If he isn't Chico's he doesn't gain any more credibility he just becomes Chico's 2.0 With crazy thoughts and arguments long after he's been shown to be wrong.

[TSmith34, Inc.]

You said "You know who else used these exact talking points, don't you?  If you're trying to stay ahead of the lie then you need to do better."   I don't see anything in your copy and paste about Aluminum which would mean exact talking points is incorrect by you, a quality I find keeps coming up with too many of your comments. 

And there are concerns about battery disposal. If others are calling that out, they are right.

Intellectual dishonesty. Always.

[TSmith34, Inc.]

Added to my BABA today on the fall (-5.5%) after earnings. Revenues up 22% YoY, including 2% sequentially, EPS +7% despite pandemic.

Risks: Chinese stocks threatened with delisting, Hong Kong.

[MU82]

Added to my BABA today on the fall (-5.5%) after earnings. Revenues up 22% YoY, including 2% sequentially, EPS +7% despite pandemic.

Risks: Chinese stocks threatened with delisting, Hong Kong.

Thanks for bringing it back to investing.

I don’t own any Chinese stocks, but BABA is one I’ve thought about for awhile. Also JD, BIDU, TCEHY and a couple others.

You own any besides BABA?

[TSmith34, Inc.]

The only other one I own is TCOM (formerly CTRP). Despite it being down big, it is still a 7-bagger for me as I've owned it since 2006 and have an average cost of $3.53. I think it was a 16- or 17-bagger at one point. I'm surprised it isn't down more, being a travel company in the time of COVID.

[vogue65]

Gambling is always a good way to escape reality. 
My wife uses opera.
Some people use booze.
Calling trading investing is just fooling ourselves.
Spin the wheel, watch the bouncing ball.

[MU82]

The only other one I own is TCOM (formerly CTRP). Despite it being down big, it is still a 7-bagger for me as I've owned it since 2006 and have an average cost of $3.53. I think it was a 16- or 17-bagger at one point. I'm surprised it isn't down more, being a travel company in the time of COVID.

Never looked into that one. Thanks.

[TSmith34, Inc.]

Never looked into that one. Thanks.

I don't know if I would say it is a buy right now or not. Certainly it seems like travel in China is bound to recover, probably more quickly than it will here. However, even with the COVID driven decline I wouldn't call it cheap, and they are having to invest substantial amounts of cash to keep growing. Due diligence is required for sure.

It is also a case study in the difficulty of knowing when to sell for me. I was sitting on pretty big gains and sold 1/4 of my position at 40.  It then promptly rose another 50% or so, so my timing was not extraordinary. Also, I hold shares in both a tax advantaged account and regular brokerage account and did the sale in the tax advantaged account to avoid the cap gains bill. In retrospect, I probably should have taken the cap gains tax hit rather than deferring and paying regular income rates down the road.

[MU82]

I don't know if I would say it is a buy right now or not. Certainly it seems like travel in China is bound to recover, probably more quickly than it will here. However, even with the COVID driven decline I wouldn't call it cheap, and they are having to invest substantial amounts of cash to keep growing. Due diligence is required for sure.

It is also a case study in the difficulty of knowing when to sell for me. I was sitting on pretty big gains and sold 1/4 of my position at 40.  It then promptly rose another 50% or so, so my timing was not extraordinary. Also, I hold shares in both a tax advantaged account and regular brokerage account and did the sale in the tax advantaged account to avoid the cap gains bill. In retrospect, I probably should have taken the cap gains tax hit rather than deferring and paying regular income rates down the road.

I hear ya. I hate selling.

[MarquetteDano]

As a hedge I shorted the 3,100 S&P 500 call for July.  I have a 3,200 long as the vertical spread.  Have to admit I am getting nervous today that the position will be in a losing position by July.

I must be a negativo/bearish because really unwilling to close the position. 

[MU82]

As a hedge I shorted the 3,100 S&P 500 call for July.  I have a 3,200 long as the vertical spread.  Have to admit I am getting nervous today that the position will be in a losing position by July.

I must be a negativo/bearish because really unwilling to close the position.

Mr. Market has lost his mind.

Good luck.