Investing Thread

[GooooMarquette]

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-oils-may-contract-has-just-gone-negative-plunging-154-and-trading-at-negative-10-a-barrel-2020-04-20?mod=bnbh_mwarticle

-$37.63 a barrel.  Can't wait to gas up and the guy has to pay me.

I just filled up, and they still made me pay them. WTF?

[Chili]

I believe I read a good article (can't find it right now) that said it was actually more expensive to stop pumping, than it is to pay someone to take the barrels.

There's people much more educated on this than I am that can probably explain the rationale here, but I know I saw that in a couple of articles yesterday.

Once a well is tapped it needs be pumped. What companies will do is stop exploring for new wells. It's virtually impossible to turn a well off. Just look at what happens with oil fires - they can't turn off the fuel. Instead, it needs to be physically capped and thus essentially killing anything that could come from it.

[MU82]

Market was doing pretty well today until news came out that Gilead's remdesivir failed in its first randomized clinical trial as a COVID-19 cure. After that ... all the steam came out of the market. GILD, which had a strong morning, ended up down 4%.

[Tortuga94]

Here is part of the response from Gilead, you can find it on their website. I just took what I thought were the most relevant points.

"The study was terminated early due to low enrollment and, as a result, it was underpowered to enable statistically meaningful conclusions. As such, the study results are inconclusive, though trends in the data suggest a potential benefit for remdesivir, particularly among patients treated early in disease."

"We expect to share results at the end of this month from our open-label study of remdesivir in patients with severe COVID-19 disease. This randomized clinical trial is fully enrolled and will compare treatment outcomes and safety following 5 or 10 days of remdesivir treatment. We expect data at the end of May from our open-label study in patients with moderate disease that is studying 5 or 10 days of remdesivir versus standard of care. We also anticipate data at the end of May from NIAID’s double-blind, placebo-controlled study of remdesivir in patients across a range of disease severity."

[Elonsmusk]

Third place I've posted this.  MESO - Great results on stem cell prelim trial with COVID patients on ventilators.

https://www.businessnewsaus.com.au/articles/mesoblast-treatment-achieves--remarkable--results-for-critical-covid-19-patients.html

[vogue65]

Bingo.

This country is currently centered around corporate socialism. And it's a freaking scam

A lot of people think in black and white terms.
Democratic socialism is the answer.  It is what made America great.
Big government, big unions and big business, simple.
Now we have small business, small unions and bankrupt government and BIG PROBLEMS, thanks guys.

[Elonsmusk]

A lot of people think in black and white terms.
Democratic socialism is the answer.  It is what made America great.
Big government, big unions and big business, simple.
Now we have small business, small unions and bankrupt government and BIG PROBLEMS, thanks guys.

Yes!  This has worked out SO well Illinois and California.  Thinking what "worked" in the 1900s would work in the 2000s is questionable at best.  Times have changed some.  Your cause/effect premise is flawed.

[TSmith34, Inc.]

Yes!  This has worked out SO well Illinois and California.  Thinking what "worked" in the 1900s would work in the 2000s is questionable at best.  Times have changed some.  Your cause/effect premise is flawed.

Illinois I will give you, it has been badly managed ever since I can remember. But California? Amazing growth and economically sound/surplus budget since the Dems overcame the supermajority requirement. Definitely still an issue with economic inequality to be worked on.

GDP is obviously only one measure, but California has been killing it.
https://www.statista.com/statistics/306775/california-gdp-growth/

[Elonsmusk]

Illinois I will give you, it has been badly managed ever since I can remember. But California? Amazing growth and economically sound/surplus budget since the Dems overcame the supermajority requirement. Definitely still an issue with economic inequality to be worked on.

GDP is obviously only one measure, but California has been killing it.
https://www.statista.com/statistics/306775/california-gdp-growth/

I'm not surprised to see GDP growth in CA, given its mecca of Fortune 500 companies, and the startup tech scene of Silicon Valley.  Given the high state income tax rates as well (9.3% for a single person earning over 57k), that certainly helps balance budget.  Yet California, despite its great recreational resources, is facing a population migration, and continues to have less than stellar bond ratings.

https://www.sacbee.com/news/databases/article236910698.html

https://www.tax-brackets.org/californiataxtable

https://www.treasurer.ca.gov/ratings/current.asp

It would seem as though a state with SO much GDP growth, wealth, property values, taxes, etc., should be crushing it, and not be facing population migration and poor bond ratings.  The pension fund in CA is also vastly underfunded, much like in IL.

https://www.ppic.org/publication/public-pensions-in-california/

I don't know.  I'm a fiscal conservative, and generally socially liberal.  I just struggle to understand how liberal fiscal policy works.   I'm certainly open to listening/learning.

[vogue65]

Yes!  This has worked out SO well Illinois and California.  Thinking what "worked" in the 1900s would work in the 2000s is questionable at best.  Times have changed some.  Your cause/effect premise is flawed.

O.K.,  let's have a 3rd world country.  Most of our country lives in 3rd world status anyway.
Small government, no unions, and small business. 

I'm for balkinizing America.

I'd much rather pay my quartly taxes to N.Y. or N.J. than to our federal government.   

30 % of our GDP is California.  It would make a great country.

If my thinking has a flawed premise then please explain how our system gives so much political influence to states where nobody lives?  And BTW don't pay spit in taxes.   I know how it happened and furthermore, when it happeded.  That was in the 19th century.

And on the subject of the stock market, let's see Wall Street dig themselves out of this one.  Ha, good luck. 

Some of you guys want to talk about government pensions.  Game on.  It's not the benefits , it's the acuarial value of the assets.  It's not just the underfunding, it's the magic of Wall Street,  again. 

[ZiggysFryBoy]

O.K.,  let's have a 3rd world country.  Most of our country lives in 3rd world status anyway.
Small government, no unions, and small business. 

I'm for balkinizing America.

I'd much rather pay my quartly taxes to N.Y. or N.J. than to our federal government.   

30 % of our GDP is California.  It would make a great country.

If my thinking has a flawed premise then please explain how our system gives so much political influence to states where nobody lives?  And BTW don't pay spit in taxes.   I know how it happened and furthermore, when it happeded.  That was in the 19th century.

And on the subject of the stock market, let's see Wall Street dig themselves out of this one.  Ha, good luck. 

Some of you guys want to talk about government pensions.  Game on.  It's not the benefits , it's the acuarial value of the assets.  It's not just the underfunding, it's the magic of Wall Street,  again.

I love day drinking too.

[vogue65]

I love day drinking too.

I gave that up 43 years 2 days ago.
I did enjoy drinking at the Vogue Cocktail Bar, across W. Wisconsin from the library.
Enjoyed day time drinking so much I even worked there as a bartender.

It took me 5 1/2 years to graduate, but it was fun.

I got so drunk I even joined the Marines in 1966, but that's another story.  Vietnam and all that patriotic bullcrap.

Now my golf clothes are made in Vietnam, so much for the domino theory and evil communism and triumphant capitalism.

[MU82]

Such a fortunate coincidence ...

https://www.charlotteobserver.com/news/politics-government/article242556081.html?

Sen. Richard Burr was not the only member of his family to sell off a significant portion of his stock holdings in February, ahead of the market crash spurred by coronavirus fears. On the same day Burr sold, his brother-in-law also dumped tens of thousands of dollars worth of shares.

The market fell by more than 30% in the subsequent month.

Burr’s brother-in-law, Gerald Fauth, who has a post on the National Mediation Board, sold between $97,000 and $280,000 worth of shares in six companies — including several that have been hit particularly hard in the market swoon and economic downturn.

[WarriorDad]

Such a fortunate coincidence ...

https://www.charlotteobserver.com/news/politics-government/article242556081.html?

Sen. Richard Burr was not the only member of his family to sell off a significant portion of his stock holdings in February, ahead of the market crash spurred by coronavirus fears. On the same day Burr sold, his brother-in-law also dumped tens of thousands of dollars worth of shares.

The market fell by more than 30% in the subsequent month.

Burr’s brother-in-law, Gerald Fauth, who has a post on the National Mediation Board, sold between $97,000 and $280,000 worth of shares in six companies — including several that have been hit particularly hard in the market swoon and economic downturn.

Been going on for years. Nothing changes.  Chris Dodd, Nancy Pelosi's husband, Shelly Capito, Jim Moran, Bachus, and so many others.  Both sides.  In 2008 Capito sold Citigroup shares the day before the collapse.  Moran sold 90 companies before the collapse.   Too many of our leaders on both sides corrupt as hell.  Such an unfortunate coincidence.

[MU82]

Been going on for years. Nothing changes.  Chris Dodd, Nancy Pelosi's husband, Shelly Capito, Jim Moran, Bachus, and so many others.  Both sides.  In 2008 Capito sold Citigroup shares the day before the collapse.  Moran sold 90 companies before the collapse.   Too many of our leaders on both sides corrupt as hell.  Such an unfortunate coincidence.

In this particular "coincidence," Burr was caught on tape telling a small private gathering of rich cronies that all hell was about to break loose, but publicly he was telling his constituents "don't worry, be happy." Meanwhile, he and his family members were dumping their stock.

So while one can dismiss this with the good ol' "both sides do it all the time" justification, this sure looks like more than that. Currently, Burr is under investigation. I doubt he'll be found guilty of any crime, though; so few are, and he has powerful friends in high places.

[WarriorDad]

Illinois I will give you, it has been badly managed ever since I can remember. But California? Amazing growth and economically sound/surplus budget since the Dems overcame the supermajority requirement. Definitely still an issue with economic inequality to be worked on.

GDP is obviously only one measure, but California has been killing it.
https://www.statista.com/statistics/306775/california-gdp-growth/

Name a decade California didn't kill it in GDP, regardless if it was led by Democrats or Republicans?  Been that way since at least Reagan as Governor in the 60's. 

[WarriorDad]

In this particular "coincidence," Burr was caught on tape telling a small private gathering of rich cronies that all hell was about to break loose, but publicly he was telling his constituents "don't worry, be happy." Meanwhile, he and his family members were dumping their stock.

So while one can dismiss this with the good ol' "both sides do it all the time" justification, this sure looks like more than that. Currently, Burr is under investigation. I doubt he'll be found guilty of any crime, though; so few are, and he has powerful friends in high places.

It happens with both sides and will continue to happen with both sides.  They cannot help themselves.

[jficke13]

Been going on for years. Nothing changes.  Chris Dodd, Nancy Pelosi's husband, Shelly Capito, Jim Moran, Bachus, and so many others.  Both sides.  In 2008 Capito sold Citigroup shares the day before the collapse.  Moran sold 90 companies before the collapse.   Too many of our leaders on both sides corrupt as hell.  Such an unfortunate coincidence.

Well as long as both sides are doing it, then it's totally fine.

[MU82]

It happens with both sides and will continue to happen with both sides.  They cannot help themselves.

Excellent equivocation.

[TSmith34, Inc.]

In this particular "coincidence," Burr was caught on tape telling a small private gathering of rich cronies that all hell was about to break loose, but publicly he was telling his constituents "don't worry, be happy." Meanwhile, he and his family members were dumping their stock.

So while one can dismiss this with the good ol' "both sides do it all the time" justification, this sure looks like more than that. Currently, Burr is under investigation. I doubt he'll be found guilty of any crime, though; so few are, and he has powerful friends in high places.

Don't feed the chicos

[g0lden3agle]

Take ur politics elsewhere and lets get back to business, who's got some poots or calls recommendations for me???

[vogue65]

Take ur politics elsewhere and lets get back to business, who's got some poots or calls recommendations for me???

Are you kidding me?  When I was a young man I lost my shirt in that game.  Might as well go to Vegas.

I agree, I think, politics is bull s$$t.  They are just rearranging the chairs on the Titanic.

The ship is going down, now we want to discuss insider information.  Might as well argue about the post office or the local 6th grade soccer coach.  Might as well focus on N95 masks.   Lots of trivia to discuss.

[Elonsmusk]

Think Ellenson Family Reunion gives some good advice above.  This dip is a great thing for you being 30 years out.  If you are a buy and hold guy, ideas I'd present would be:  AMRN, ETSY, ULTA, RVLV, SQ, BA, SHOP, CTAS.

Higher volatility biotechs I like (a sector invest 50% of my portfolio):  AXSM, FLGT, GNPX, NVTA, SAVA, AQST, IGMS.

Bloom Energy (BE) is also an interesting company with a bright future IMO.

Invest at your own risk above.  Just sharing some ideas.

Take ur politics elsewhere and lets get back to business, who's got some poots or calls recommendations for me???

The above recs I made back on March 20 now up an aggregate 73%.  Of those, I'd still get in on AMRN, GNPX, SAVA, AQST, NVTA.  (All under $17).  I wouldn't expect a lot of movement up in near term for any, but over the course of the next year these have strong liklihood of delivering a 2x return aggregate.

[Elonsmusk]

Such a fortunate coincidence ...

https://www.charlotteobserver.com/news/politics-government/article242556081.html?

Sen. Richard Burr was not the only member of his family to sell off a significant portion of his stock holdings in February, ahead of the market crash spurred by coronavirus fears. On the same day Burr sold, his brother-in-law also dumped tens of thousands of dollars worth of shares.

The market fell by more than 30% in the subsequent month.

Burr’s brother-in-law, Gerald Fauth, who has a post on the National Mediation Board, sold between $97,000 and $280,000 worth of shares in six companies — including several that have been hit particularly hard in the market swoon and economic downturn.

Not sure this needs to be politicized.  Not sure you or me or anyone else would hold their positions if they felt a high likelihood of market drop of 30%.  Of course we all knew about COVID back in December, January, February, and nothing seemingly changed, until it inevitably made its way here as it has to what, 185 countries?

So, he traded on govt briefing info...which of course seems unsettling, but should being a govt official preclude one from making an investment decision?  Officers in publicly traded companies can buy or sell shares at any time.

That aside, timing the market is a fools errand, and Burr likely has missed out on all of the bounce back since that time.  (Which by the way I think is a complete overreaction - this bounce - I anticipate market will take a big step back in July/August as Q2 earnings and unemployment effects are much more fully known.)

[Hards Alumni]

Not sure this needs to be politicized.  Not sure you or me or anyone else would hold their positions if they felt a high likelihood of market drop of 30%.  Of course we all knew about COVID back in December, January, February, and nothing seemingly changed, until it inevitably made its way here as it has to what, 185 countries?

So, he traded on govt briefing info...which of course seems unsettling, but should being a govt official preclude one from making an investment decision?  Officers in publicly traded companies can buy or sell shares at any time.

That aside, timing the market is a fools errand, and Burr likely has missed out on all of the bounce back since that time.  (Which by the way I think is a complete overreaction - this bounce - I anticipate market will take a big step back in July/August as Q2 earnings and unemployment effects are much more fully known.)

He was trading stocks on information not publicly released that he received confidentially.

Take the name and party out of the equation, and this is a textbook case of insider trading for anyone else.

Change the name Burr to Schiff, and the party to Democrat, and I'd be willing to bet you'd change your tune.

How about instead, we just make the rules start applying to everyone?