Investing Thread

[TSmith34, Inc.]

It's okay.  Eggs are cheaper, and I've been told gas is way down.

Gas for $1.98/gallon--which I have been told by a highly reputable and accurate source is the case in at least 5 states--is nothing. I want it down 1,200%, 1,300%, 1,400%, 1,500%. I'm not talking 50%. 1,300%, 1,400%.

[Jockey]

Gas for $1.98/gallon--which I have been told by a highly reputable and accurate source is the case in at least 5 states--is nothing. I want it down 1,200%, 1,300%, 1,400%, 1,500%. I'm not talking 50%. 1,300%, 1,400%.

Gas will always be $1.99 a gallon in MAGAt's minds when a felon is in the White House.

[Jay Bee]

Gas will always be $1.99 a gallon in MAGAt's minds when a felon is in the White House.

^^^ ban dis ze

[Uncle Rico]

^^^ ban dis ze

Agree.  Scoop is no place for facts, just like America

[Shaka Shart]

Just got indication that we will be exploring altering our financial guidance based on tariff uncertainty and to start modeling in scenarios. Some in industry have already issued some adjustments. Think the shoe is about to drop on projections now that we are into august with no end to the chaos in sight.

[Jay Bee]

Just got indication that we will be exploring altering our financial guidance based on tariff uncertainty and to start modeling in scenarios.

Wow! You guys are really ahead of the times!

#dafuq

[TSmith34, Inc.]

Just got indication that we will be exploring altering our financial guidance based on tariff uncertainty and to start modeling in scenarios. Some in industry have already issued some adjustments. Think the shoe is about to drop on projections now that we are into august with no end to the chaos in sight.

Everyday brings a new chaos. Today it's semiconductors, yesterday it was India, the day before pharma.

What a stable genius.

[MU Fan in Connecticut]

Just got indication that we will be exploring altering our financial guidance based on tariff uncertainty and to start modeling in scenarios. Some in industry have already issued some adjustments. Think the shoe is about to drop on projections now that we are into august with no end to the chaos in sight.

Since my company is German and we sell copper alloy wire products I'm talking to customers all week about tariffs and how it affects their product and everyone is proceeding as normal and will just pay for now since there really is no alternative.  Your toothbrush prices will be going up.  (Seriously.)

There is no real manufacturer in the USA because it's a niche market and there won't be anytime soon.  My old now defunct company and one other American company purchase brass & bronze pre-material off shore and shape in the USA.  We bought outside the USA because the lone USA supplier lacked the quality and didn't have the capacity (very long lead times).   I'd hate to see what their lead times will be in the near future. 

[Uncle Rico]

Since my company is German and we sell copper alloy wire products I'm talking to customers all week about tariffs and how it affects their product and everyone is proceeding as normal and will just pay for now since there really is no alternative.  Your toothbrush prices will be going up.  (Seriously.)

There is no real manufacturer in the USA because it's a niche market and there won't be anytime soon.  My old now defunct company and one other American company purchase brass & bronze pre-material off shore and shape in the USA.  We bought outside the USA because the lone USA supplier lacked the quality and didn't have the capacity (very long lead times).   I'd hate to see what their lead times will be in the near future. 

Those jobs are coming home 🇱🇷🇱🇷🇱🇷🇱🇷

[tower912]

One more way for the dentists to gouge us and screw us.

[Hards Alumni]

Since my company is German and we sell copper alloy wire products I'm talking to customers all week about tariffs and how it affects their product and everyone is proceeding as normal and will just pay for now since there really is no alternative.  Your toothbrush prices will be going up.  (Seriously.)

There is no real manufacturer in the USA because it's a niche market and there won't be anytime soon.  My old now defunct company and one other American company purchase brass & bronze pre-material off shore and shape in the USA.  We bought outside the USA because the lone USA supplier lacked the quality and didn't have the capacity (very long lead times).  I'd hate to see what their lead times will be in the near future. 

That sounds like Their Problem

[Pakuni]

Time for some heads to roll in the Labor Department.

https://x.com/washingtonpost/status/1953527833201889372

[tower912]

Somebody dropped the ball.   In a pristine lie not in the bunker or heavy gorse.

[Shaka Shart]

Wow! You guys are really ahead of the times!

#dafuq

Because they've been changing, disappearing, reappearing, without much predictability. The decision was made to go with a running assumption assuming the dust won't particularly ever settle anytime soon.

Hence start widening the guidance with some high level impact intervals.

Just like you could be finishing the year closer to a Pickleball 3.5 vs a 4.5. We simply don't know how many groins you will strain.

[MU82]

Because they've been changing, disappearing, reappearing, without much predictability. The decision was made to go with a running assumption assuming the dust won't particularly ever settle anytime soon.

Hence start widening the guidance with some high level impact intervals.

Whether large corporations or small companies or anything in between, businesses always have to adjust to economic conditions. Over time, I imagine you've gotten pretty good at it.

What's going on now is bringing unprecedented uncertainty. And I feel for y'all because you have to make so many best guesses - not knowing what the next Whim Du Jour is gonna be.

I wish you good fortune.

[Shaka Shart]

Whether large corporations or small companies or anything in between, businesses always have to adjust to economic conditions. Over time, I imagine you've gotten pretty good at it.

What's going on now is bringing unprecedented uncertainty. And I feel for y'all because you have to make so many best guesses - not knowing what the next Whim Du Jour is gonna be.

I wish you good fortune.

It's hard to financially model social media posts to be sure.

Nobody wants to be the one to push the button that brings in the steel that was subject to twice the tariff one day vs the next week. The sporadic pauses honestly are the hardest part

[Uncle Rico]

It's hard to financially model social media posts to be sure.

Nobody wants to be the one to push the button that brings in the steel that was subject to twice the tariff one day vs the next week. The sporadic pauses honestly are the hardest part

Morons are governing America

[TSmith34, Inc.]

Morons are governing America

Yes, but also kleptocrats

[JWags85]

Whether large corporations or small companies or anything in between, businesses always have to adjust to economic conditions. Over time, I imagine you've gotten pretty good at it.

What's going on now is bringing unprecedented uncertainty. And I feel for y'all because you have to make so many best guesses - not knowing what the next Whim Du Jour is gonna be.

I wish you good fortune.

Its interesting to watch in real time in business settings.  I totally feel for short term decision making, such as MUinCT mentioned with some of his client teams. 

For example, diamond tariffs right now are 10% baseline, plus any applicable country tariffs.  So with the newest hike, diamonds from India are subject to 60% tariff.  So I know a lot of people who are stressing and making REALLY tough decisions in the near term.  But at the same time, its VERY illuminating for showing the deficiencies in some companies planning and strategy for mid and long term as soon as something doesn't go to plan.  The Mike Tyson quote about "Everyone has a plan till they get punched in the mouth" is actually shockingly applicable in business. 

But this situation also brings my favorite life/business quote my Dad has always told me..."don't make long term decisions based on short term problems."  Ive had to almost proverbially shake a few people and say "you've been through Trump's first term, you know how he is, don't react like this is going to be forever, it could be different tomorrow, be pragmatic".  I totally get looking at other manufacturing/production options in other countries in light of the new tariff world, but I've had people saying they need to start closing their operations in India by Q4 and I'm like "either your business is a house of cards or you're hysterical and I need to tread carefully with you  "

What's amusing though is I have a few colleagues who are Indian and Mumbai based, but very international in their business and life/personal experience and they kind of look at the India tariffs as "you know what, I get it..."  Its not endorsing or explicitly supporting Trump, but India is a BIATCH to do business in for US companies and individuals.  Oversight is excessive and cumbersome, while importing is costly, convaluted, and corrupt.  Legislation and rules to prevent companies from bringing old machinery and electronics and dumping them in India (which was a very real problem in the 90s), has made in EXTREMELY difficult for anyone but major corporations to bring non-brand new custom machinery/technology into the country.  Which cajoles you into using inferior Indian products or partnering with Indian companies while also not protecting IP (don't even get me started).  They actually think the tariffs is going to be a net positive for US/India two-way business, but very rocky in the meantime.

Honestly, people in India are less bothered by the tariff hard ball and MUCH more upset that Trump is playing nicely with Pakistan.

[Skatastrophy]

Yeah agreed, Wags. It was valuable before this admin, and during this current admin, to diversify your sourcing (for example). Beyond diversification to mitigate your risk, keep on focusing on what you're best in the world at and work with the best partners. The current admin is too unfocused to effect any changes permanently, so it's best to ignore their whims.

[Shaka Shart]

Yeah agreed, Wags. It was valuable before this admin, and during this current admin, to diversify your sourcing (for example). Beyond diversification to mitigate your risk, keep on focusing on what you're best in the world at and work with the best partners. The current admin is too unfocused to effect any changes permanently, so it's best to ignore their whims.

Specifically in my industry, the simultaneous upending and sunsetting of tax credits adds to this. So all the sudden your customers want things done RIGHT NOW to qualify for safe harbor and you are sitting looking at having to import a whole bunch more material than you had planned for in the short term as tariff rates are flying around.

You can't really plan for that scenario unfortunately. Our 5 year production glidepath is only as valuable as the timelines we can realistically achieve.

[Jockey]

Yeah agreed, Wags. It was valuable before this admin, and during this current admin, to diversify your sourcing (for example). Beyond diversification to mitigate your risk, keep on focusing on what you're best in the world at and work with the best partners. The current admin is too unfocused to effect any changes permanently, so it's best to ignore their whims.

I agree. And more companies should have diversified sooner. The last company I worked for did so after having sourcing issues following the 2008 crash. Too many other companies pushed things down the road and were hit even harder during vivid.

I do however, strongly disagree with the final 6 words of your post.

[TSmith34, Inc.]

The current admin is too unfocused to effect any changes permanently, so it's best to ignore their whims.

Mmmmmm. I think companies would be wise to plan scenarios where this continues beyond the next 3 1/2 years. They sure are.

[Skatastrophy]

Mmmmmm. I think companies would be wise to plan scenarios where this continues beyond the next 3 1/2 years. They sure are.

Corporatocracy will likely prevail

[Uncle Rico]

Mmmmmm. I think companies would be wise to plan scenarios where this continues beyond the next 3 1/2 years. They sure are.

Companies will be just fine.  It's the average citizen that won't be