Investing Thread

[Skatastrophy]

Companies will be just fine.  It's the average citizen that won't be

Thankfully all of the citizens are invested in the companies. The wealth will trickle down

[Jockey]

Mmmmmm. I think companies would be wise to plan scenarios where this continues beyond the next 3 1/2 years. They sure are.

Some people still have a quaint and outdated belief that there will be an election.

[Uncle Rico]

Some people still have a quaint and outdated belief that there will be an election.

Well, there will be an election like the ones in Russia

[TSmith34, Inc.]

Some people still have a quaint and outdated belief that there will be an election.

Oh, there will be. But it will look like Hungary's.

[MU82]

Companies will be just fine.  It's the average citizen that won't be

Both could be screwed, especially smaller companies and poorer citizens.

[JWags85]

Both could be screwed, especially smaller companies and poorer citizens.

As with everything business, chaos and uncertainty also leads to opportunity. The initial tariff shock sucks for a lot of countries that didn't have tariffs before, but past the initial increase, there is opportunity if you're a lower rate than your manufacturing competitors globally.  I'm already seeing some potential reshuffling in that regard with a few African nations.

And smaller companies have a chance to reexamine things here.  I've already had conversations with people about sourcing changes.  There have been delays and logistic issues you sort of deal with cause the cost is right. But if the costs increase for China or Mexico or others, suddenly you can re-evaluate and find more efficient solutions with that new costing scenario.

It's easy to see the negative and doom  in all of this, but the flip is that it's kind of an interesting new time for creative business strategy.  That obviously wasn't the administrations goal and it doesn't mean you have to think this is all great, but it can still turn into a win for many companies and people, not just oligarchs. 

I know a small company, under $2MM in annual revenue, that's been around for 20+ years grinding it out through ups and downs, that has been really struggling lately. But pending some confirmation from some legal experts, they have a unique work around for some Indian exporters to the US.  Even if Trump drops Indian tariffs back down (obviously they won't be 50% forever) by 2026, they will likely do 3-4x their annual revenue in the back half of 2025 alone and completely change the lives of their 15-20 employees.

[tower912]

My brother handles international trade for an auto parts supplier. 


Yeah, no.

[Shaka Shart]

Companies will be just fine.  It's the average citizen that won't be

And Harvard

[Billy Hoyle]

I think I found the key to investing:

1. Post as a liberal to create a fake outrage over a publicly traded company
2. Have POTUS post about it so it becomes the new favorite company of MAGA
3. Profit.

[Jockey]

As with everything business, chaos and uncertainty also leads to opportunity. The initial tariff shock sucks for a lot of countries that didn't have tariffs before, but past the initial increase, there is opportunity if you're a lower rate than your manufacturing competitors globally.  I'm already seeing some potential reshuffling in that regard with a few African nations.

 

Actually, we have ceded trading with Africa to China. It will continue to get even more one-sided. We are at the point where virtually every African country trades more with China - as opposed to 20 years ago where we dominated African trade.

[Uncle Rico]

I think I found the key to investing:

1. Post as a liberal to create a fake outrage over a publicly traded company
2. Have POTUS post about it so it becomes the new favorite company of MAGA
3. Profit.

It truly is that easy.  Those people are such simple idiots

[Billy Hoyle]

Actually, we have ceded trading with Africa to China. It will continue to get even more one-sided. We are at the point where virtually every African country trades more with China - as opposed to 20 years ago where we dominated African trade.

maybe not the best choice of words 

[JWags85]

Actually, we have ceded trading with Africa to China. It will continue to get even more one-sided. We are at the point where virtually every African country trades more with China - as opposed to 20 years ago where we dominated African trade.

I'm well aware of China's influence on Africa as a result of the Belt and Road initiative.  The trade shift to China was happening well before the tariffs.  I'm speaking to developments over the last 2-3 months.  There are plenty of countries and businesses there that aren't totally happy with the shift/reliance on China either.

I know it's impossible for you to fathom anything good happening for anyone but racists and the super rich under this administration, but I'm sharing direct first hand business evidence and conversations related to 5-6 African nations, not second hand stories from a blogger with an agenda.  I know delegates from a few of them that have been to the US for government business more in the last 6 months than the previous few years combined. 

[Jockey]

I'm well aware of China's influence on Africa as a result of the Belt and Road initiative.  The trade shift to China was happening well before the tariffs.  I'm speaking to developments over the last 2-3 months.  There are plenty of countries and businesses there that aren't totally happy with the shift/reliance on China either.

I know it's impossible for you to fathom anything good happening for anyone but racists and the super rich under this administration, but I'm sharing direct first hand business evidence and conversations related to 5-6 African nations, not second hand stories from a blogger with an agenda.  I know delegates from a few of them that have been to the US for government business more in the last 6 months than the previous few years combined. 

I'm simply going by the numbers.

I realize there are businesses trying to create better relationships, but our government is not. And make no mistake, the current Afro-China and Afro-US business partnerships will be very consequential in the future.

[MUBurrow]

Wow. That's really super- duper noble. Helping save the ignorant.  Basically you are saying that Scoopers are ignorant and NEED your mansplaining.

Actually, we have ceded trading with Africa to China. It will continue to get even more one-sided. We are at the point where virtually every African country trades more with China - as opposed to 20 years ago where we dominated African trade.

Bonus chef's kiss for starting with the word "actually"

[MU82]

A Montana businessman named Josh Smith - who also fancies himself as a podcaster - has publicly supported tariffs and criticized companies that warned they'd  have to pass tariff costs onto consumers. He said his own business - Montana Knife Company - would never have to pass along tariffs to his customers because his product is made in the U.S.A. solely from products sourced in the U.S.A.

His business had been going so well during the pandemic that he decided to expand it, which meant buying more equipment to enlarge his manufacturing operation and employ more people.

Unfortunately, he still needs to buy large machinery that's only available overseas - such as a bevel grinder, which refines the sharpness and shape of blades. Without tariffs, he was looking at a $400,000 price tag to import one from Germany. But the 50% tariffs don't exempt machinery, so now Smith is looking at potentially paying $600,000.

Additionally, the steel manufacturer he had been using went bankrupt last November, and it was purchased by a European company. So the supply of what he considers the highest-quality knife steel is no longer produced in America.

In a podcast, he said:

"Punish the guy making the knives in Taiwan and in China. I'm fine with that. But I'm the guy making knives in America. ... Don't punish me for making knives in America by tariffing my equipment and my steel supply. Tariff the guy that's doing absolutely jack sh!t in America. That's called nuance in your policies, and that's what I'm asking for."

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/american-knife-brand-shows-trump-195812695.html

[tower912]

I am all in on policies that punish other people.

[JWags85]

Where did a 50% tariff on a machine from Germany come from?

[Shaka Shart]

Where did a 50% tariff on a machine from Germany come from?

Steel and aluminum is 50%

[JWags85]

Steel and aluminum is 50%

Yea but isn't that the materials themselves? He said it was 50% on a machine.  The company in Waukesha that makes our molds for some of our plastic parts got a new specialized CNC/lathe machine of some sort from Germany last month and said they paid the 15% tariffs

[forgetful]

Yea but isn't that the materials themselves? He said it was 50% on a machine.  The company in Waukesha that makes our molds for some of our plastic parts got a new specialized CNC/lathe machine of some sort from Germany last month and said they paid the 15% tariffs

I think they would have been referring to the original threatened tariffs (before the EU deal was signed) where for special categories, including machinery the Tariff was going to be 50%.

Then the deal was made that established the 15%.

But I could be wrong, I can't keep up with all of it.

[Jockey]

Bonus chef's kiss for starting with the word "actually"

You pay more attention to my posts than I do.

[MU82]

Yea but isn't that the materials themselves? He said it was 50% on a machine.  The company in Waukesha that makes our molds for some of our plastic parts got a new specialized CNC/lathe machine of some sort from Germany last month and said they paid the 15% tariffs

I included a link with the article, and there are others available via the googles. If none of them answer your question, I have no idea where this business owner's 50% figure comes from.

The whole thing does get filed in the Ye Reap What Ye Sow folder.

[MU Fan in Connecticut]

Yea but isn't that the materials themselves? He said it was 50% on a machine.  The company in Waukesha that makes our molds for some of our plastic parts got a new specialized CNC/lathe machine of some sort from Germany last month and said they paid the 15% tariffs

What Wags said.  It's 50% on the material itself.  I was dealing with copper all last week.  Most of the wire I deal with are copper alloys so after you do the math it ends up like a 30-35% tax because the other metals in the alloy are only like 3% (the earlier tariff %). 

Everyone I've talked to so far just plans to pass on the tax.

[MU82]

Everyone I've talked to so far just plans to pass on the tax.

Yup, businesses need to make money.

If a politician asked a fellow politician who also happens to be a business owner to "eat the cost" of tariffs, I'm pretty sure the business owner would tell the first politician where to go.