Investing Thread

[Shaka Shart]

I'm in the copper metals business and no one really knows if 50% tariffs are kicking in or not on Friday August 1?

I'm on "tariff component impact Jul v2.2.4". Excited to roll over into August

[rocky_warrior]

The US dollar index (after steady declines) says... Who knows

https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/dxy

(I'd expect gains in the dollar index to cause drops in the market at this point)

[MU Fan in Connecticut]

The US dollar index (after steady declines) says... Who knows

https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/dxy

(I'd expect gains in the dollar index to cause drops in the market at this point)

Rocky,
The first week of my European sojourn, I found myself laughing every day.  My mother-in-law would share the daily US $ - Polish zloty exchange rate.  Apparently she checks everyday and was very upset because it has tanked since the beginning of the year. 
She was last person I'd expect to be reviewing daily.  She wants her US retirement savings to go further and longer.

[Shaka Shart]

They should finally revalue the Iraqi dinar

[Skatastrophy]

Rocky,
The first week of my European sojourn, I found myself laughing every day.  My mother-in-law would share the daily US $ - Polish zloty exchange rate.  Apparently she checks everyday and was very upset because it has tanked since the beginning of the year. 
She was last person I'd expect to be reviewing daily.  She wants her US retirement savings to go further and longer.

Our pres said a weak dollar is good for the US. She should manage her expectations accordingly.

[MU Fan in Connecticut]

I met with my large customer, Molex, yesterday at company HQ in Germany.  They said Molex has a volunteer team of 15-20 people that meets daily to figure out what are the daily current tariff rates for what countries and what products are affected.  It affects their suppliers and product sales to their customers.  He said there are days the group can't even figure out that day.

[JWags85]

I met with my large customer, Molex, yesterday at company HQ in Germany.  They said Molex has a volunteer team of 15-20 people that meets daily to figure out what are the daily current tariff rates for what countries and what products are affected.  It affects their suppliers and product sales to their customers.  He said there are days the group can't even figure out that day.

I thought Molex was HQ'd in the Chicago suburbs?

[GOO]

All of this craziness for something that is extremely likely to be declared unconstitutional.

I'm not sure on the timing of when this gets before the Supreme Court, but even with the current make up of the Supreme Court other than Thomas, I see no way that most of the tariffs stand.

At worst it's remanded to determine what is an emergency, etc, and there is thus a longer period of uncertainty. 

This is one constitutional provision that is so clear, even the most biased justices will not be able to justify to themselves allowing a president to usurp this power.

Is Congress than going to actually enact tariff legislation? I suspect not, or at least not something as chaotic as what's been happening.

[JakeBarnes]

Jobs report looks tariff-ick.

[tower912]

Jobs report looks tariff-ick.

Mr. Market will be happy.

[JakeBarnes]

Mr. Market will be happy.

I just can't believe Jimmy Carter would hurt the market like this.

[The Sultan]

All of this craziness for something that is extremely likely to be declared unconstitutional.

I'm not sure on the timing of when this gets before the Supreme Court, but even with the current make up of the Supreme Court other than Thomas, I see no way that most of the tariffs stand.

At worst it's remanded to determine what is an emergency, etc, and there is thus a longer period of uncertainty. 

This is one constitutional provision that is so clear, even the most biased justices will not be able to justify to themselves allowing a president to usurp this power.

Is Congress than going to actually enact tariff legislation? I suspect not, or at least not something as chaotic as what's been happening.

Even though it is painfully obvious that you are correct with regards to tarrifs, I mean the president himself has stated the reason Brazil has a 50% one is because their former leader is in jail (emergency???), I don't think the SC is going to stand in his way. They will likely say that he has broad discretion to determine what is, and what is not, an emergency.

[TSmith34, Inc.]

All of this craziness for something that is extremely likely to be declared unconstitutional.

I'm not sure on the timing of when this gets before the Supreme Court, but even with the current make up of the Supreme Court other than Thomas, I see no way that most of the tariffs stand.

Ummmmm, no offense GOO, but have you seen some of the other recent rulings of this Supreme Court?

The Constitution is important when it supports the outcome they want and is fully ignored when it stands in the way of the outcome they want.

But even in the unlikely event they declare it unconstitutional, you can court on the House immediately voting to cede their own power, again.

[Uncle Rico]

All of this craziness for something that is extremely likely to be declared unconstitutional.

I'm not sure on the timing of when this gets before the Supreme Court, but even with the current make up of the Supreme Court other than Thomas, I see no way that most of the tariffs stand.

At worst it's remanded to determine what is an emergency, etc, and there is thus a longer period of uncertainty. 

This is one constitutional provision that is so clear, even the most biased justices will not be able to justify to themselves allowing a president to usurp this power.

Is Congress than going to actually enact tariff legislation? I suspect not, or at least not something as chaotic as what's been happening.

Congress?!?  My man!

[TSmith34, Inc.]

Jobs report looks tariff-ick.

I've remained heavily in cash (for me, at least) and overweight defensive issues, without regret despite the relentlessly upward market of the last few months.

I don't think there is an example in modern history of an authoritarian kleptocracy takeover being good for capital markets.

[MU82]

All of this craziness for something that is extremely likely to be declared unconstitutional.

I'm not sure on the timing of when this gets before the Supreme Court, but even with the current make up of the Supreme Court other than Thomas, I see no way that most of the tariffs stand.

At worst it's remanded to determine what is an emergency, etc, and there is thus a longer period of uncertainty. 

This is one constitutional provision that is so clear, even the most biased justices will not be able to justify to themselves allowing a president to usurp this power.

Is Congress than going to actually enact tariff legislation? I suspect not, or at least not something as chaotic as what's been happening.

If only.

[MU82]

Jobs report looks tariff-ick.

Cannot believe how the Heard and McDonald Islands got away without huge tariffs this time.

Obviously, DEI favoring penguins. Sad.

[Shaka Shart]

I don't necessarily think they'll claw back the tariffs in the Supreme Court based on recent precedent but if they do, how does that work?

Do they reimburse those who paid them if the decision is rendered unconstitutional? How does that work I wonder.

[MU82]

Jobs report looks tariff-ick.

It apparently is Bureau of Labor Statistics commissioner Erika McEntarfer's fault.

[Shaka Shart]

Lolllllllll

[MU82]

Lolllllllll

Definitely, if autocracies are funny.

[Skatastrophy]

Definitely, if autocracies are funny.

https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/gallows%20humor

[Uncle Rico]

Definitely, if autocracies are funny.

More of an oligarchy.  Anyway, it's a fact free society now.  I'm sure Muggsy is outraged

Pravda level information.  Dear leader North Korea information.  The collapse of American exceptionalism is swift and decisive.  At least racists, homophobes and sexists can roam freely and loudly again.

The Rush Limbaugh-fication of America

[MU Fan in Connecticut]

I thought Molex was HQ'd in the Chicago suburbs?

They are and my company ships to their plants all over the world.  They have Supplier Audit teams and this was a follow-up at my company HQ and factory.

[JWags85]

They are and my company ships to their plants all over the world.  They have Supplier Audit teams and this was a follow-up at my company HQ and factory.

Oh, I misread.  I read it as company (Molex) HQ in Germany. Wasn't doubting you, obviously, just was confused if I'd missed something.  My cousin had interviewed with them to run a division of theirs at HQ in Lisle 7-8 years ago when he left CAT, but ended up at Martin Marietta instead.  That's why Molex stood out to me, not a personal love of electronic connectors