Investing Thread

[TSmith34, Inc.]

This bodes badly for the economy and short/medium term investing

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/consumer-sentiment-craters-further-as-inflation-expectations-soar-to-highest-since-1981-143422026.html?fr=sycsrp_catchall
"Consumer sentiment tumbled further in April as the impacts of President Trump's tariff policies were top of mind.

The latest University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey released Friday showed sentiment hit its lowest level since June 2022. The index slid to a reading of 50.8, below the 57 seen last month and the 53.8 expected by economists.

Pessimism over the inflation outlook soared again, as one year-inflation expectations jumped to 6.7% — the highest since 1981 — from 4.9% the month prior. Just three months ago, consumers had expected inflation of 3.3% over the next year."

[MU82]

From the NYT DealBook editor Andrew Ross Sorkin:

Investors appear to be worried about what's next for the "Trump put," shorthand for the president walking back policies that could hurt the economy.

Because Trump has shown that he will listen to the bond market, the thinking goes, he has lost negotiating leverage — especially since he is seeking allies to team up against China. That means other trading partners can demand things from the U.S., and not, as the White House wants, the other way around.

Yesterday's market plunge seems tied in part to a growing belief that the only way for Trump to get out of this predicament is walk away from his fight altogether.

[The Sultan]

From the NYT DealBook editor Andrew Ross Sorkin:

Investors appear to be worried about what's next for the "Trump put," shorthand for the president walking back policies that could hurt the economy.

Because Trump has shown that he will listen to the bond market, the thinking goes, he has lost negotiating leverage — especially since he is seeking allies to team up against China. That means other trading partners can demand things from the U.S., and not, as the White House wants, the other way around.

Yesterday's market plunge seems tied in part to a growing belief that the only way for Trump to get out of this predicament is walk away from his fight altogether.

The bolded has always been correct and we have never had the upper hand that Trump thought we had. The United States is the most powerful country on earth. It is not, however, omnipotent.

[Uncle Rico]

The bolded has always been correct and we have never had the upper hand that Trump thought we had. The United States is the most powerful country on earth. It is not, however, omnipotent.

And outside economics and trade, we are not currently a trustworthy or reliable partner to anyone

[The Sultan]

And outside economics and trade, we are not currently a trustworthy or reliable partner to anyone

Correct. Which is why people are running to markets that are more stable.

[GB Warrior]

The convergence on this thread makes me believe in America again. Of course we cancelled all the dentists. 

[TSmith34, Inc.]

Because Trump has shown that he will listen to the bond market, the thinking goes, he has lost negotiating leverage — especially since he is seeking allies to team up against China. That means other trading partners can demand things from the U.S., and not, as the White House wants, the other way around.

Really? Who, exactly, is Trump seeking as allies against China?

Because as we know, the best way to achieve this is to hit them with crushing tariffs right before you ask for their assistance. So let's see, who didn't he put tariffs on?

....Ohhhhhhhhhhhh

[GB Warrior]

Really? Who, exactly, is Trump seeking as allies against China?

Because as we know, the best way to achieve this is to hit them with crushing tariffs right before you ask for their assistance. So let's see, who didn't he put tariffs on?

....Ohhhhhhhhhhhh

He said that he's seeking, not that he's finding...

[The Sultan]

LOL.

https://x.com/rhcm123/status/1910732800963092782

[Scoop Snoop]

Correct. Which is why people are running to markets that have more stable leaders.

FIFY

[GB Warrior]

Bill's really going through it

https://x.com/billackman/status/1910715542593249411?s=46

[Uncle Rico]

Bill's really going through it

https://x.com/billackman/status/1910715542593249411?s=46

Well, his fund is down -12.9% this month. 

[GB Warrior]

Well, his fund is down -12.9% this month. 

What if *insert trade agreements Trump already walked away from and lit on fire*

[Hards Alumni]

Bill's really going through it

https://x.com/billackman/status/1910715542593249411?s=46

Further proof that just because you are wealthy does not mean you are smart.

[MU82]

Bill's really going through it

https://x.com/billackman/status/1910715542593249411?s=46

A thought experiment. Imagine if:

America's "leader" didn't antagonize and alienate the very allies he needs to do anything close to what Ackman is suggesting.

The bolded has always been correct and we have never had the upper hand that Trump thought we had.

Especially when it comes to China.

[TSmith34, Inc.]

I sold more into the rally today. Although, two days ago I did but very small amounts of Berkshire and AT&T preferreds, the latter figuring that no matter how bad it gets, people are still going to pay for their cell phones, so the 6.37% yield is pretty safe.

[forgetful]

For those that understand far far more about finance and investing than I do, could all the instabilities currently being introduced into the financial markets accidentally trigger a collapse of the massive derivatives market again?

[MU Fan in Connecticut]

US consumer sentiment plummets to second-lowest level on records going back to 1952
By Bryan Mena, CNN
Updated 12:40 PM EDT, Fri April 11, 2025

https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2025/04/11/economy/us-consumer-sentiment-april

[Skatastrophy]

For those that understand far far more about finance and investing than I do, could all the instabilities currently being introduced into the financial markets accidentally trigger a collapse of the massive derivatives market again?

Derivatives markets usually flourish when VIX is pegging like it has been. HFT firms are built for this crap.

[MU82]

The White House occupant really caved in late last night ...

https://apnews.com/article/trump-tariffs-smartphones-electronics-laptops-apple-10c31e91d7790bfe8fb004f547109359

The Trump administration late Friday said they would exclude electronics like smartphones and laptops from reciprocal tariffs, a move that could help keep the prices down for popular consumer electronics that aren't usually made in the U.S.

It would also benefit big tech companies like Apple and Samsung and chip makers like Nvidia.

U.S. Customs and Border Protection said items like smartphones, laptops, hard drives, flat-panel monitors and some chips would qualify for the exemption. Machines used to make semiconductors are excluded too. That means they won't be subject to the current 145% tariffs levied on China or the 10% baseline tariffs elsewhere.

It's the latest tariff change by the Trump administration, which has made several U-turns in their massive plan to put tariffs in place on goods from most countries. The goal is to encourage more domestic manufacturing. But the exemptions seem to acknowledge that the current electronics supply chain is virtually all in Asia and it will be challenging to shift that to the U.S. For example, about 90% of iPhones are produced and assembled in China, according to Wedbush Securities.

[forgetful]

The White House occupant really caved in late last night ...

https://apnews.com/article/trump-tariffs-smartphones-electronics-laptops-apple-10c31e91d7790bfe8fb004f547109359

The Trump administration late Friday said they would exclude electronics like smartphones and laptops from reciprocal tariffs, a move that could help keep the prices down for popular consumer electronics that aren't usually made in the U.S.

It would also benefit big tech companies like Apple and Samsung and chip makers like Nvidia.

U.S. Customs and Border Protection said items like smartphones, laptops, hard drives, flat-panel monitors and some chips would qualify for the exemption. Machines used to make semiconductors are excluded too. That means they won't be subject to the current 145% tariffs levied on China or the 10% baseline tariffs elsewhere.

It's the latest tariff change by the Trump administration, which has made several U-turns in their massive plan to put tariffs in place on goods from most countries. The goal is to encourage more domestic manufacturing. But the exemptions seem to acknowledge that the current electronics supply chain is virtually all in Asia and it will be challenging to shift that to the U.S. For example, about 90% of iPhones are produced and assembled in China, according to Wedbush Securities.

So it is getting really close to the main people all of this is hurting are:

American Farmers
Those wanting to buy cheap clothes/shoes from China (much of which has been moving to SE Asia and Africa anyway).

[MU82]

Yes, throwing cash at the White House occupant now appears to have been money very well spent by all the tech oligarchs.

Barring any insanity over the weekend, one would think Mr. Market will be quite jovial on Monday.

[Scoop Snoop]

Yes, throwing cash at the White House occupant now appears to have been money very well spent by all the tech oligarchs.

Barring any insanity over the weekend, one would think Mr. Market will be quite jovial on Monday.

Not so fast! Let's give the Lizzie Borden method time to prove itself.

[Skatastrophy]

So it is getting really close to the main people all of this is hurting are:

American Farmers
Those wanting to buy cheap clothes/shoes from China (much of which has been moving to SE Asia and Africa anyway).

Same thing happened in 2018, then there were monster federal bailouts for farmers that lost their main market when China shifted to importing from Brazil et al. That business never came back.

Same song, different verse. A little bit louder and a little bit worse.

[MU82]

Same thing happened in 2018, then there were monster federal bailouts for farmers that lost their main market when China shifted to importing from Brazil et al. That business never came back.

Same song, different verse. A little bit louder and a little bit worse.

Welfare is bad ... unless it's welfare to keep the farmers' vote.