Investing Thread

[Jockey]

Japan and China started to sell off their bonds instead of negotiate, and the WH blinked because of the rise in interest rates.

While I still think there was some manipulation involved, he never thought it would go down the tubes so fast.

So yes, you are correct. He blinked. Besides Japan & China selling, he never thought he would be abandoned by many of the oligarchs & influencers so quickly.

And we know (because of the usual "sir" stories), that other countries were not reaching out to him.

[Dish]

🤔

https://x.com/spencerhakimian/status/1910120891637186965?s=46&t=nX9__T6F5tmMsEFTze2ANQ

[NCMUFan]

ChatGPT helping me out again.
is USA debt and japan and china selling off USA bonds related?


ChatGPT said:
Yes, the U.S. debt and Japan and China selling off U.S. bonds are definitely related. Let's break down the connection in simple terms:

🔗 The Relationship
U.S. Debt Basics:

When the U.S. government runs a budget deficit, it borrows money by issuing Treasury bonds (T-bonds).

These bonds are bought by investors, including foreign governments, because they are considered low-risk.

Foreign Holdings:

Countries like Japan and China are (or have historically been) two of the largest foreign holders of U.S. Treasury bonds.

They hold these bonds as part of their foreign exchange reserves—it's a way to park money in a safe, liquid asset.

Selling U.S. Bonds:

When Japan or China sell off U.S. bonds, they are essentially reducing their exposure to U.S. debt.

This can happen for a few reasons:

Need for cash (e.g., Japan fighting inflation or currency weakness).

Geopolitical reasons (e.g., China reducing reliance on the U.S. financial system).

Diversification into other assets or currencies.

🎯 Why This Matters for U.S. Debt
When big holders like Japan or China sell bonds:

Prices fall, and yields (interest rates) rise.

That means it becomes more expensive for the U.S. to borrow in the future (higher interest on new debt).

It can also signal waning foreign confidence in U.S. fiscal policy or currency stability.

📉 Are They Selling Now?
Yes—over the past couple of years, both Japan and China have been slowly reducing their holdings. Reasons include:

China: Avoiding U.S. financial influence, reshoring reserves, currency management.

Japan: Propping up the yen, shifting strategy amid inflation and changing interest rates.

🔍 TL;DR
Yes, it's related. When countries like Japan and China sell U.S. bonds, it directly impacts the U.S. debt situation by:

Increasing pressure on U.S. interest rates.

Raising questions about global trust in U.S. fiscal stability.

Making it more expensive for the U.S. to service and roll over its debt.

[TSmith34, Inc.]

Raising questions about global trust in U.S. fiscal stability.

Huh

[Jockey]

🤔

https://x.com/spencerhakimian/status/1910120891637186965?s=46&t=nX9__T6F5tmMsEFTze2ANQ

At 6:37am ET, Trump posted a comment saying that "THIS IS A GREAT TIME TO BUY!!!" Then a few hours later he caved on his tariffs.

[Dish]

At 6:37am ET, Trump posted a comment saying that "THIS IS A GREAT TIME TO BUY!!!" Then a few hours later he caved on his tariffs.

These were QQQ call options that expire on 4/17. 10 minutes before Trump announced the tariff pause, that's remarkable volume for those call options a week out, particularly in this market.

Even worse is this...

SPY option calls expiring TODAY (4/9) skyrocketed more than ten fold, approximately 10 minutes before the announcement. Mind you, this is at 1pm EST this incredible volume happens at. This would be a gargantuan risk to buy essentially worthless options that expired in three hours.

As it turned out, a $100k SPY call option turned into over $20 million at the expiration at close today.

[GB Warrior]

I have doubts this helped push us closer to bringing manufacturing back but I could be wrong

You missed all the new factories that popped up this past week?

[cheebs09]

The amount of victory laps I'm seeing on Facebook over the one day stock bump helps me realize how we got into this mess.

[Hards Alumni]

Another day... another battering.

When will it end?

As other posters cited, there is no clear end line to the tariff battle. It's like the Vietnam War -- we kept fighting -- for what???

When the governing powers in this country wake up, someone should tell them they were elected to repair the economy. Not destroy it! One can reasonably expect that as more legislators visit with constituents, the majority party will join with the minority party in opposition to economic hari kari.I remain hopeful that should happen around mid-year.

Oh honey.

[JWags85]

These were QQQ call options that expire on 4/17. 10 minutes before Trump announced the tariff pause, that's remarkable volume for those call options a week out, particularly in this market.

Even worse is this...

SPY option calls expiring TODAY (4/9) skyrocketed more than ten fold, approximately 10 minutes before the announcement. Mind you, this is at 1pm EST this incredible volume happens at. This would be a gargantuan risk to buy essentially worthless options that expired in three hours.

As it turned out, a $100k SPY call option turned into over $20 million at the expiration at close today.

I was on a 3 hour conference call midday yesterday so I was kind of out of pocket.  So, I know there wasn't a proper press conference, but was there some indication Trump was making an announcement when he did?

Just asking cause going back to his first term, any time he said anything markets usually flashed in one direction, and his "Great Time to Buy" message would have shown clear directionality.

[Hards Alumni]

I don't disagree, but that sort of escalation would maim China as well.  This just seems like tit-for-tat posturing that leads to some sort of agreement.  Not because Trump is some brilliant tactician, but because China needs the US far more than people like to admit.  Just like the US would be hurting significantly if they suddenly shut off all inexpensive Chinese imports, the Chinese economy would be brutalized with no tech/services/software from the US.  And their economy is far more precarious than they are letting on.  There is significant animosity in both directions, but we are inextricably tethered to each other.

China can ride things out much easier than the US can.  We are a consumer economy that produces very little.  We are a capitalist democracy as opposed to a socialst planned economy with capitalist tendencies.

[NCMUFan]

You missed all the new factories that popped up this past week?

We had a good rain last night.  That should help.

[Hards Alumni]

🤔

https://x.com/spencerhakimian/status/1910120891637186965?s=46&t=nX9__T6F5tmMsEFTze2ANQ

indeed.

[The Sultan]

Oh honey.

Sometimes I think dgeis fell asleep in 1985 and just occasionally wakes up to post stuff.

[Skatastrophy]

And today Mr Market remembers that we are still in the midst of a trade war.

[Uncle Rico]

And today Mr Market remembers that we are still in the midst of a trade war.

We still have 10% universal tariffs.  Economists seem to agree that's about a $2500 yearly tax on American consumers.  Of course, that could change by time I post this and we have cancelled all new tariffs and the markets get happy or we decide to tariff Canada 100% because they made mean comments.


Also, with news about the FDIC, I'm sure the markets are on edge because of that

[Billy Hoyle]

🤔

https://x.com/spencerhakimian/status/1910120891637186965?s=46&t=nX9__T6F5tmMsEFTze2ANQ

where was Nancy Pelosi during all of this? We need an investigation

[Billy Hoyle]

The amount of victory laps I'm seeing on Facebook over the one day stock bump helps me realize how we got into this mess.

It's like the guy who went to a casino with $1000, was down to his last $10, and then cashed out with $100 then claimed he left up $90.

[The Sultan]

where was Nancy Pelosi during all of this? We need an investigation

Placing trades on Hunter's laptop.

[Hards Alumni]

where was Nancy Pelosi during all of this? We need an investigation

[MU82]

From the NYT:

The bond market ultimately forced Trump's hand, according to The Times. While the president insisted earlier in the day that plunging stocks weren't a concern — "THIS IS A GREAT TIME TO BUY!!!", he wrote on Truth Social at 9:37 a.m. Eastern — close advisers were dismayed by the sell-off in Treasury bonds and the dollar, eroding the reputation of both as economic safe havens.

Soon after Trump's morning post, he met with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick and Kevin Hassett, the director of the National Economic Council, to discuss the 10-year Treasury yield.

[GB Warrior]

Dead cat bounce aina?

[Billy Hoyle]

Dead cat bounce aina?

is this about Springfield, OH?

[Uncle Rico]

Dead cat bounce aina?

It'll be a confusing day for Fox News and Facebook posters.  What lane to take?

[cheebs09]

It'll be a confusing day for Fox News and Facebook posters.  What lane to take?

I think most are worn out from the Victory Lap and need a break.