Investing Thread

[Jockey]

One thing my Scoop history suggests is that you are easily swayed by crackpot conspiracy theories generally embraced by those who are not terribly intelligent.

Mine suggests that you are the master of conventional thinking. Just be a part of the crowd that says this is all normal behavior. You fit in that space extremely well.

And yes, I was the 1st crackpot here to suggest that a certain president would refuse to leave office.

[The Sultan]

Mine suggests that you are the master of conventional thinking. Just be a part of the crowd that says this is all normal behavior. You fit in that space extremely well.

And yes, I was the 1st crackpot here to suggest that a certain president would refuse to leave office.

It's not normal behavior. However it's also not necessarily conspiratorial.

And yes, you are a crackpot.

[Skatastrophy]

Another big drop pre market.

If Powell is removed, and if the Fed board gets shaken up, we will enter a period of eye watering inflation.

I'm on team crackpot.

Edit: and the market pops on open. I'm glad I'm not a day trader.

[MU82]

Stock futures are soaring, as the White House occupant now says he has no intention of firing Powell.

https://seekingalpha.com/news/4433743-stock-futures-soar-trump-says-no-intention-axing-fed-chairman-powell

Trying to guess what a narcissist's next Whim Du Jour will be is quite a way to have to invest.

But I have a few things I'd like to sell, so a big-time up day would be welcome.

Of course, 3 hours from now, he could reverse himself for the 408th time, so who knows?

[jesmu84]

The story of advisors getting Navarro to attend a fake meeting while watching over Trump tweet is wild.

[Uncle Rico]

The story of advisors getting Navarro to attend a fake meeting while watching over Trump tweet is wild.

Did he meet with Ron Vara?

[cheebs09]

It seems like when we reverse course or back off a decision, the stock market does really well. I wonder if some people will realize that or if it's just some sort of manipulation.

[Jockey]

It seems like when we reverse course or back off a decision, the stock market does really well. I wonder if some people will realize that or if it's just some sort of manipulation.

WE don't reverse course. Just one man does.  And, yes, it is some sort of manipulation.

[MUBurrow]

Jockey, what is the capital gains bill on liquidating 2/3 of your portfolio? Not asking for specific numbers of course, but were most of your holdings low basis?

[TSmith34, Inc.]

Jockey, what is the capital gains bill on liquidating 2/3 of your portfolio? Not asking for specific numbers of course, but were most of your holdings low basis?

Can't speak for Jockey of course, but personally I've done probably 80% or more of my trades in pre-tax accounts.

[JWags85]

It seems like when we reverse course or back off a decision, the stock market does really well. I wonder if some people will realize that or if it's just some sort of manipulation.

I don't necessarily think its directly some sort of manipulation, not cause of giving the administration any benefit of the doubt, but just because this is the sort of whiplash reactionary market that we had from 2016-2020.  People may not have noticed cause a lot of the movement was intra-day, but it was a perfect storm of algorithmic word scraping and a President who spoke stream of consciousness and far more than usual.

Right now its spikes on a downtrend, but it happened on upward market movements back then too.  All Trump had to do was contradict or change his mind on something and the market would race in the opposite direction, sometimes multiple times a week in opposite directions giving little no weekly change, but the daily was wild.

[Jay Bee]

Can't speak for Jockey of course, but personally I've done probably 80% or more of my trades in pre-tax accounts.

Spoken like a true poor.

[Jockey]

Can't speak for Jockey of course, but personally I've done probably 80% or more of my trades in pre-tax accounts.

That was a part of it, but I was also already at 50% cash (which I realize is frowned on by many here - and probably rightfully so). With retirement looming, I had wanted a much more conservative approach. My only 2 goals were to be able to do what my wife and I want for the rest of our lives and to give a decent chunk of change to kids and grandkids. A nice byproduct is that we are giving more to charities and liberal causes (with none of those going to the D party).

So I took a smallish(?) hit on Cap gains.

[MU82]

I don't necessarily think its directly some sort of manipulation, not cause of giving the administration any benefit of the doubt, but just because this is the sort of whiplash reactionary market that we had from 2016-2020.  People may not have noticed cause a lot of the movement was intra-day, but it was a perfect storm of algorithmic word scraping and a President who spoke stream of consciousness and far more than usual.

Right now its spikes on a downtrend, but it happened on upward market movements back then too.  All Trump had to do was contradict or change his mind on something and the market would race in the opposite direction, sometimes multiple times a week in opposite directions giving little no weekly change, but the daily was wild.

Since his second term began, he has regularly made proclamations about two topics that directly affect the stock market: Powell and tariffs. Anything else is just noise, but those two topics send the market into significant plunges or climbs. It's happened over and over again.

Now, I'm not sure how smart you think he is or isn't, but he's probably smart enough to have noticed the impact of his words, as are those around him. It would be SO easy for him to give advance notice to family members or cronies that he's about to say something about tariffs or the Fed.

Do I think that's actually what's happening? I have no idea. Would I say he's too above-board to do such a thing? Hmmm. Would you, Wags?

[Skatastrophy]

It seems like when we reverse course or back off a decision, the stock market does really well. I wonder if some people will realize that or if it's just some sort of manipulation.

It does well for one or two days. 

Then people realize we're still in the thick of it without any adults in charge.

[rocky_warrior]

give a decent chunk of change to kids and grandkids.

What, the Scoop fees were too high to consider throwing some at us?

[Hards Alumni]

What, the Scoop fees were to high to consider throwing some at us?

Become a sustaining member of scoop even when you're dead!

[MUBurrow]

Jockey and TSmith - thanks for the follow up re cap gains.  I lack the confidence that I would not only time the market, but time it to win by more than 20% after all is said and done, which is a major consideration in my mostly sitting tight. 

[muwarrior69]

Since his second term began, he has regularly made proclamations about two topics that directly affect the stock market: Powell and tariffs. Anything else is just noise, but those two topics send the market into significant plunges or climbs. It's happened over and over again.

Now, I'm not sure how smart you think he is or isn't, but he's probably smart enough to have noticed the impact of his words, as are those around him. It would be SO easy for him to give advance notice to family members or cronies that he's about to say something about tariffs or the Fed.

Do I think that's actually what's happening? I have no idea. Would I say he's too above-board to do such a thing? Hmmm. Would you, Wags?

I guess we will just have to wait and see if he pardons all his family and friends for crimes they may have committed over the last decade, like the last guy.

[Uncle Rico]

I guess we will just have to wait and see if he pardons all his family and friends for crimes they may have committed over the last decade, like the last guy.

You should read the news.

[Hards Alumni]

I guess we will just have to wait and see if he pardons all his family and friends for crimes they may have committed over the last decade, like the last guy.

No need to wait, he already did that last time he was in office, and this time as well.

But go off, King.

[Scoop Snoop]

I guess we will just have to wait and see if he pardons all his family and friends for crimes they may have committed over the last decade, like the last guy.

Are you referring to the guy who openly mused about pardoning himself?

[MU82]

This is always a fave:

Goldman Sachs shareholders approved a nonbinding resolution endorsing $80 million in bonuses for the Wall Street giant's CEO and president, despite criticism over the payouts' size and a lack of connection to the firm's performance.

[muwarrior69]

No need to wait, he already did that last time he was in office, and this time as well.

But go off, King.

Not exactly. He pardoned his son-in-law's father who served time for a crime which is quite different than pardoning your immediate family for crimes they MAY have committed and escaping any consequences.

[Hards Alumni]

Not exactly. He pardoned his son-in-law's father who served time for a crime which is quite different than pardoning your immediate family for crimes they MAY have committed and escaping any consequences.

You said family and friends.  Though, I'm not sure that matters.

He blanket pardoned all of the J6 rioters in his first week in office.  People who committed crimes at his behest.  It was disgusting and detestable behavior.

He pardoned Roger Stone for trying to help him steal the 2020 election.  Plus a litany of others including Paul Manafort.

I assure you, if any of his children sniff the wrong side of the law they'll never see the inside of a court room, and if they do and are convicted they'll be pardoned in the exact same way.

Spare me.