Investing Thread

[jesmu84]

Crypto and TSLA way up

[MuggsyB]

Do you think the Fed should cut 25 today?  I'm no expert but it seems unnecessary to me.

[forgetful]

rocket

The greatest economy in the history of the world is on the horizon.

I hope you are right, because my rate of return for the past year has been just a hair over 40%. If we will be seeing something above and beyond that, it would be amazing.

Every rational person realizes that ain't happening.

[MU82]

Do you think the Fed should cut 25 today?  I'm no expert but it seems unnecessary to me.

The Fed probably waited too long to start cutting - kept rates a little too high for a little too much time. So these might be seen as "catch-up cuts."

I don't know as a .25% cut is going to really "help" or "hurt" anything, so I don't know as it's necessary or unnecessary - except that Mr. Market is clearly expecting a cut and wouldn't like it if there wasn't one. I do think there's somewhat less of a chance of another .25% cut in December.

In 2025, all bets are off with the change in Washington and the call by some for the executive branch to have more influence on the Fed.

[forgetful]

nm.

[jesmu84]

Private prison corporations way up

[Skatastrophy]

Private prison corporations way up

Ah ffs, yeah that tracks

[SoCalEagle]

With today's gains, now over 25% gain for S&P 500 this year.   

[rocky_warrior]

With today's gains, now over 25% gain for S&P 500 this year.   

YTD, but as forgetful alluded, add 2 months and it's closer to 40% over the past year.  Seeing 36+% now, but was around 38% earlier today.  Add reinvesting the dividends, and it's been an unrealistic year (getting to 40+%)

[Uncle Rico]

YTD, but as forgetful alluded, add 2 months and it's closer to 40% over the past year.  Seeing 36+% now, but was around 38% earlier today.  Add reinvesting the dividends, and it's been an unrealistic year (getting to 40+%)

Is there a bubble bursting emoji?

[SoCalEagle]

The S&P 500 is now over 6,000.  And we haven't even had our Santa Claus rally yet!!! 

[Mucubfan]

Well, as my wife and I explore the housing market, it is really sad to watch interest rates steadily rise again as bond rates gain and the market braces for these tariffs.

My guess is short term gains spoiled by significant rise in inflation, interest rate hikes, and long term economic woes. Kind of what most economists predicted earlier this year.

[Mucubfan]

For reference- my lender quoted interest rates in the mid 7s with me putting 30% down and with credit above 800.

[Hards Alumni]

For reference- my lender quoted interest rates in the mid 7s with me putting 30% down and with credit above 800.

Find a new creditor. 

[rocky_warrior]

Find a new creditor. 

Holy sh*t that avatar is throwing me off.

[MuggsyB]

For reference- my lender quoted interest rates in the mid 7s with me putting 30% down and with credit above 800.

Jeesh.  The rate cuts haven't been good for mortgage rates. 

[MuggsyB]

YTD, but as forgetful alluded, add 2 months and it's closer to 40% over the past year.  Seeing 36+% now, but was around 38% earlier today.  Add reinvesting the dividends, and it's been an unrealistic year (getting to 40+%)

There will likely be a correction. 

[Uncle Rico]

Jeesh.  The rate cuts haven't been good for mortgage rates. 

Good

[The Sultan]

For reference- my lender quoted interest rates in the mid 7s with me putting 30% down and with credit above 800.

Factors such as percentage down and credit rating have less impact on a 30 year mortgage than you would think. They just hedge that with PMI insurance for people with less down or marginal credit rating.

The greater risk from their POV is interest rates.

Over a shorter term those factors mean more.

[MU82]

There will likely be a correction. 

There definitely will be. The question is when.

I mean, there's always a correction (or worse). And then a recovery. That's how the stock market has worked for decades.

Quoting Peter Lynch: "Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves."

[Uncle Rico]

There definitely will be. The question is when.

I mean, there's always a correction (or worse). And then a recovery. That's how the stock market has worked for decades.

Quoting Peter Lynch: "Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves."

It is a good time to look at investing in emerging markets. 

There definitely will be. The question is when.

I mean, there's always a correction (or worse). And then a recovery. That's how the stock market has worked for decades.

Quoting Peter Lynch: "Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves."

Correct.  Even in a contracting market, one can find ways to invest wisely.  Emerging markets always present themselves

[MuggsyB]

There definitely will be. The question is when.

I mean, there's always a correction (or worse). And then a recovery. That's how the stock market has worked for decades.

Quoting Peter Lynch: "Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves."

That's a very good quote.

[forgetful]

There will likely be a correction. 

Of course there will be. My point was really to highlight the fact that we are in the midst of a Golden Economy right now, that is outperforming the entire world.

My concern from an investing standpoint is that what is going to happen will be akin to what I was concerned about back in 2017/18 and discussed (I believe on here).

The economy is booming, it is on fire, like it was then. What is likely to happen is that policies will be enacted that are pro-expansion, that will be like pouring gasoline on a fire. It is not needed, but it removes from the table the policy actions that we usually reserve for economies that are stagnating.

What happens then when a economic crises happens (read 2020), is we do not have any of our traditional levers to pull, because they have all been used to pour gasoline on the fire, so we have to use untraditional levers that lead to increased inflation.

The market moves over the last few days have the same concerns and are based on predicting new inflation.

[MU82]

Of course there will be. My point was really to highlight the fact that we are in the midst of a Golden Economy right now, that is outperforming the entire world.

My concern from an investing standpoint is that what is going to happen will be akin to what I was concerned about back in 2017/18 and discussed (I believe on here).

The economy is booming, it is on fire, like it was then. What is likely to happen is that policies will be enacted that are pro-expansion, that will be like pouring gasoline on a fire. It is not needed, but it removes from the table the policy actions that we usually reserve for economies that are stagnating.

What happens then when a economic crises happens (read 2020), is we do not have any of our traditional levers to pull, because they have all been used to pour gasoline on the fire, so we have to use untraditional levers that lead to increased inflation.

The market moves over the last few days have the same concerns and are based on predicting new inflation.

That's reasonable.

Obviously we aren't sure that will happen, but it's not outrageous to think it could.

[MuggsyB]

Of course there will be. My point was really to highlight the fact that we are in the midst of a Golden Economy right now, that is outperforming the entire world.

My concern from an investing standpoint is that what is going to happen will be akin to what I was concerned about back in 2017/18 and discussed (I believe on here).

The economy is booming, it is on fire, like it was then. What is likely to happen is that policies will be enacted that are pro-expansion, that will be like pouring gasoline on a fire. It is not needed, but it removes from the table the policy actions that we usually reserve for economies that are stagnating.

What happens then when a economic crises happens (read 2020), is we do not have any of our traditional levers to pull, because they have all been used to pour gasoline on the fire, so we have to use untraditional levers that lead to increased inflation.

The market moves over the last few days have the same concerns and are based on predicting new inflation.

The market is a component of the economy, it doesn't tell the full story.  And a ton of money has been pumped in.  We still have major inflation issues and the jobs we're creating are generally government and in the medical field.  The cost of living has increased exponentially,and we still have a lot of work to do.