Investing Thread

[Uncle Rico]

There are always coal mines, railyards and the docks.

People in the 1880's had it made

[The Sultan]

People in the 1880's had it made

Send your kid off to the mine while you strengthen your immune system by contracting smallpox. What's not to like?

[Uncle Rico]

Send your kid off to the mine while you strengthen your immune system by contracting smallpox. What's not to like?

Unions starting up is about it.  They ruined child labor.  Kids could be used to make iPhones instead of cheap labor in China but no, the woke mob put an end to that.

[MU82]

Getting back to investing ...

The White House occupant told reporters today:

"We're going to have a very, very big announcement to make. Like, as big as it gets, and I won't tell you on what, and it's very positive. It is really, really positive, and that announcement will be made either Thursday or Friday or Monday. ... But it'll be one of the most important announcements that have been made in many years, about a certain subject, very important subject. ... I'm not saying. I don't want you to think it's necessarily on trade."

https://seekingalpha.com/news/4442168-trump-teases-very-very-big-announcement-says-not-necessarily-on-trade

All three stock market indexes, which already had been in the red, ended up going a little lower.

I bought a little Amgen (AMGN), one of several pharmaceutical stocks that were down today on tariff threats and other industry headwinds.

[Jockey]

F'ing moron.

His ego is so fragile that he has to purposely manipulate the Markets to feel fulfilled.

[Jay Bee]

Tell me some good stocks to short and what option chains I should be looking at.

[Spaniel with a Short Tail]

There are always coal mines, railyards and the docks.

[MU82]

In today's most anticipated earnings report, Disney (DIS) scored impressive beats on both the top and bottom lines. It also added more subscribers than expected to its streaming platforms in Q2 and issued strong full-year guidance.

DIS is up about 10% as I write this.

The sports business saw 5% revenue growth, in which domestic ESPN grew 7% and international ESPN was up 11%.

In Q2, total Disney+ subscribers were up 1.1% from Q1 at 126M, ahead of the 123.34M estimate. Total Hulu subscribers were up 2.1% from Q1 at 54.7M and beat the estimate of 54.22M.

Revenue from parks and experiences saw a growth of 6%, where domestic was up 9%, international fell 5%, and consumer products were up 4%.

On a per-share basis, the company earned $1.45, beating the average analyst estimate of $1.20.

Revenue rose nearly 7% to $23.6B and was ahead of the $23.02B estimate.

For the full year, the company expects adjusted earnings per share of $5.75 and cash flow from operations of $17B. The Bloomberg consensus estimate for adj. EPS is $5.44, and cash flow is $14.8B.

[Shaka Shart]

In today's most anticipated earnings report, Disney (DIS) scored impressive beats on both the top and bottom lines. It also added more subscribers than expected to its streaming platforms in Q2 and issued strong full-year guidance.

DIS is up about 10% as I write this.

The sports business saw 5% revenue growth, in which domestic ESPN grew 7% and international ESPN was up 11%.

In Q2, total Disney+ subscribers were up 1.1% from Q1 at 126M, ahead of the 123.34M estimate. Total Hulu subscribers were up 2.1% from Q1 at 54.7M and beat the estimate of 54.22M.

Revenue from parks and experiences saw a growth of 6%, where domestic was up 9%, international fell 5%, and consumer products were up 4%.

On a per-share basis, the company earned $1.45, beating the average analyst estimate of $1.20.

Revenue rose nearly 7% to $23.6B and was ahead of the $23.02B estimate.

For the full year, the company expects adjusted earnings per share of $5.75 and cash flow from operations of $17B. The Bloomberg consensus estimate for adj. EPS is $5.44, and cash flow is $14.8B.

Curious how the decline of global tourism to the US will affect Disney parks. Not sure that decline will offset domestically with more people staying closer to home?

[MU82]

2,300 employees of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp., the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, and the Securities and Exchange Commission - all of whom monitor the banking industry for signs of trouble - are about to be fired.

History has shown that banks will regulate themselves in an effective manner while lending responsibly, so what could possibly go wrong?

[JWags85]

Curious how the decline of global tourism to the US will affect Disney parks. Not sure that decline will offset domestically with more people staying closer to home?

Take this with a grain of salt and YMMV, but speaking to someone here in Florida who used to be involved in tourism in the Orlando area, they mentioned that DisneyWorld/Disney Florida properties often were unrelated to overall US travel for Europeans/South Americans/Canadians.  Sort of the thought isn't "we're going to holiday in the US" and more like "we're going on holiday to Disney". 

How much that would play with people not wanting to visit the US for CBP/Customs worry issues, I'm not sure.  But more along the lines that its a different demographic and planning compared to the people that say "we were planning a spring/summer trip to the US and now we're not going to the US".  Those people aren't usually going to NY/Miami/(insert popular US destination) and then adding Disney as a stop.

Similarly, I don't know about you guys, but despite always joking that you can have a great Euro vacation for the cost of a week at DisneyWorld, Ive never known anyone who had the pair as a consideration set together.  But who knows.

Funny enough, all that being said, I have friends from Indonesia who have already planned a trip in 2026 to the US for the World Cup...and also going to DisneyWorld 

[Hards Alumni]

Take this with a grain of salt and YMMV, but speaking to someone here in Florida who used to be involved in tourism in the Orlando area, they mentioned that DisneyWorld/Disney Florida properties often were unrelated to overall US travel for Europeans/South Americans/Canadians.  Sort of the thought isn't "we're going to holiday in the US" and more like "we're going on holiday to Disney". 

How much that would play with people not wanting to visit the US for CBP/Customs worry issues, I'm not sure.  But more along the lines that its a different demographic and planning compared to the people that say "we were planning a spring/summer trip to the US and now we're not going to the US".  Those people aren't usually going to NY/Miami/(insert popular US destination) and then adding Disney as a stop.

Similarly, I don't know about you guys, but despite always joking that you can have a great Euro vacation for the cost of a week at DisneyWorld, Ive never known anyone who had the pair as a consideration set together.  But who knows.

Funny enough, all that being said, I have friends from Indonesia who have already planned a trip in 2026 to the US for the World Cup...and also going to DisneyWorld 

Parks will always be fine, plus they'll see an uptick this summer with Epic Universe opening a few miles down the road.

They will learn that they can't milk their repeat customers forever, and that a lot of new customers have bad experiences because you have to do homework before you ever go to the parks.  You can't just wing it and expect to have a good day.

[Skatastrophy]

Did some of you dudes exit your cash position yet? When's the right time for you to reenter the market?

[Jay Bee]

Did some of you dudes exit your cash position yet? When's the right time for you to reenter the market?

I'm still being a little girl, with massive cash balances and low levels of confidence. But I want to make some crazy plays soonish

[Skatastrophy]

I'm still being a little girl, with massive cash balances and low levels of confidence. But I want to make some crazy plays soonish

Yeah I don't ever move to cash because I'm never sure when to buy. I play the mental game during past downturns and by the time I'm ready to buy again I've already missed most of the gains.

Like even now with the S&P 500 regaining highs (but the tech companies I care about still 30% off of peak) I don't think we're anywhere close to out of the woods with the global uncertainty. Would I have missed the runup? Are we already in the middle of the runup? Idk.

[MU82]

Nobody knows. I've read 3 articles today - one saying we haven't seen the bottom yet, one saying the market is ready to zoom to new heights, and one predicting the kind of "lost decade" the market experienced after the dot-com crash. So again, nobody knows.

I've done some buying, but I still have plenty of cash. The stocks I bought during the huge tariff tantrum, especially the tech names, are way up now, but some of the value buys I've made more recently (mostly health care and utilities) are down. They're all long-term buys, so I don't sweat it very much.

[Jockey]

Did some of you dudes exit your cash position yet? When's the right time for you to reenter the market?

No.

But I'm in a different situation than most people here.

[Jay Bee]

I want option plays. Help

[Hards Alumni]

I want option plays. Help

You could either buy, or you could sell.

Hope this helps.

[Shaka Shart]

I want option plays. Help

May I suggest Navy Football?

[TSmith34, Inc.]

I want option plays. Help

Jelly roll the VIX.

Hope this helps.

[TSmith34, Inc.]

Did some of you dudes exit your cash position yet? When's the right time for you to reenter the market?

Nope. Cash continues to build, even while making some small additions to BDCs (ARCC, MAIN, TSLX, HTGC).

I can't see a time to reenter until the chaos dies.

[Shaka Shart]

Finally!

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2025/may/15/us-reportedly-plans-slash-bank-rules-imposed-prevent-2008-style-crash

[Uncle Rico]

Finally!

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2025/may/15/us-reportedly-plans-slash-bank-rules-imposed-prevent-2008-style-crash

Every time we relax regulations/enforcement, good things happen like bailouts and checks for citizens

[dgies9156]

Every time we relax regulations/enforcement, good things happen like bailouts and checks for citizens

This is an interesting issue for financial service providers. The scuttlebutt is that examinations will be much lighter and less comprehensive because of the number of FDIC and OCC examiners taking early retirement. It takes much time for the government to retain and then train qualified examiners for bank work.

I'm not sure this will make a huge difference on the short-term, but keeping an eye on what banks say about how they were examined is critical.

In the meantime, there may be some rollback of regulation, probably with enforcement of the Community Reinvestment Act of 1977. However, the core safety and soundness rules that govern banking will not be changed dramatically. Some things, like the Current Estimate of Credit Loss ("CECL") accounting standard, probably should be tweaked. But CECL requires an effective stress test for a credit portfolio with allowances for credit loss ("ACL") established based on projected life of loan loss rate. The crux of that rule isn't going anywhere.

From an investment standpoint, watch disclosures on how banks establish loan loss. Are changes gradual, meaning they are up to date and their loss drivers reasonable, or have they been surprised multiple times by unanticipated loss. While every bank is surprised occasionally, good loan review and effective loan loss analysis should mitigate most surprises. 

The biggest near-term risk to banks, elevated default caused by higher interest rates, appears to have been mitigated. This was expected to be a huge problem in 2023 and 2024 but bankers seem to have done a great job of working with borrowers to either reduce indebtedness or forbearing on fully indexed rate increases. In fact, with the market rebounding, expect an uptick in merger and acquisition activity beginning in August or September.