Investing Thread

[Jay Bee]

Orange Hitler's friends have made their money on the short side, so he'll be caving on these sooner rather than later.

^^^ ban her

[Uncle Rico]

^^^ ban her

Is gender misappropriation supposed to be insulting or simply grade school intellect?

[Uncle Rico]

I was at my wire industry trade show last week and I heard from at 3 different people who said the entire steel industry wanted Nippon Steel to purchase US Steel because US Steel is so horrifically corrupted.  To make any deal with them you're dealing with like a crime syndicate of various stakeholders in the company and they needed Nippon Steel to clean it all up.   

My new company is German and even though copper alloy products are excluded from the craziness, I'm already seeing customers looking for product shipped direct to their Mexico location instead of my company warehouse in Charleston.  I'm also seeing customers only buy what they immediately need because they really don't know what or how much to buy.  It's one thing to forecast with a cloudy crystal ball, but another when the crystal ball is completely missing.

Greenland signing a mineral rights deal with the EU is probably what set off the newest tariff threats. 

China is poaching our top brain power now that central planning is telling private universities who they can admit.  We can't or won't be getting product from China soon.

Top companies are raising prices on goods, taxing American consumers.  When will the winning stop?

[Shaka Shart]

I was at my wire industry trade show last week and I heard from at 3 different people who said the entire steel industry wanted Nippon Steel to purchase US Steel because US Steel is so horrifically corrupted.  To make any deal with them you're dealing with like a crime syndicate of various stakeholders in the company and they needed Nippon Steel to clean it all up.   

My new company is German and even though copper alloy products are excluded from the craziness, I'm already seeing customers looking for product shipped direct to their Mexico location instead of my company warehouse in Charleston.  I'm also seeing customers only buy what they immediately need because they really don't know what or how much to buy.  It's one thing to forecast with a cloudy crystal ball, but another when the crystal ball is completely missing.

This week was American Clean Power in Phoenix. The whole overarching theme around it is axing the IRA, PTC, and Advanced Manufacturing credit incentives is going to tank all the asset manager's deal economics and create an even more dire power shortage at a time when the US needs it more than ever.

[Shaka Shart]

This week was American Clean Power in Phoenix. The whole overarching theme around it is axing the IRA, PTC, and Advanced Manufacturing credit incentives is going to tank all the asset manager's deal economics and create an even more dire power shortage at a time when the US needs it more than ever.

Investing wise, your big time energy asset managers are very uncomfortable right now

[TSmith34, Inc.]

This week was American Clean Power in Phoenix. The whole overarching theme around it is axing the IRA, PTC, and Advanced Manufacturing credit incentives is going to tank all the asset manager's deal economics and create an even more dire power shortage at a time when the US needs it more than ever.

I made a short term bet today that the Senate will restore some if not all of those provisions* in the final tax bill. Too many red state Republicans squawking because of the clean energy jobs lost in their state.

So I sold puts on HASI and went long calls on AAPL. We shall see.

*Or at least, at some point that will be the rumor

[Shaka Shart]

I made a short term bet today that the Senate will restore some if not all of those provisions* in the final tax bill. Too many red state Republicans squawking because of the clean energy jobs lost in their state.

So I sold puts on HASI and went long calls on AAPL. We shall see.

*Or at least, at some point that will be the rumor

That's the hope, plus there's a lot of data centers exploring the space around owning their own energy sites with battery storage. Probably don't want to mess with Google and Amazon on that one

[TSmith34, Inc.]

That's the hope, plus there's a lot of data centers exploring the space around owning their own energy sites with battery storage. Probably don't want to mess with Google and Amazon on that one

Really both option plays are short-term. Long-term I hope that is right, but these are just volatility and reversion to the mean plays.

I did the same thing with ABBV last week and scored a nice gain for holding calls for about 27 hours.

[Jockey]

Greenland signing a mineral rights deal with the EU is probably what set off the newest tariff threats. 

Also brings up an interesting conundrum.

If the US attempts to take over Greenland, will NATO countries come to Greenland's aid militarily?

Has the moron considered this question? (Obviously a rhetorical question.)

[TSmith34, Inc.]

I made a short term bet today that the Senate will restore some if not all of those provisions* in the final tax bill. Too many red state Republicans squawking because of the clean energy jobs lost in their state.

So I sold puts on HASI and went long calls on AAPL. We shall see.

*Or at least, at some point that will be the rumor

Closed my AAPL calls. Could close the cash covered puts for a bigger gain but going to let those ride.

[Shaka Shart]

Taking Mae and Mac public would be something

[Skatastrophy]

Taking Mae and Mac public would be something

Sounds like a Scott Walker idea. Braniacs 

[NCMUFan]

I think I have this figured out.
Tariff On - Buy
Tariff Off - Sell.

[TSmith34, Inc.]

I think I have this figured out.
Tariff On - Buy
Tariff Off - Sell.

It's called the TACO trade - Trump Always Chickens Out. Buy after his mindless tariff announcements have sent the market (or individual stock in AAPL's case) into a tailspin, sell after he announces yet another 90 day pause and the markets recover.

[rocky_warrior]

Dang, I was hoping to be the first one to use TACO here. 

FWIW, we did just have a TACO Tuesday.

[Uncle Rico]

It's called the TACO trade - Trump Always Chickens Out. Buy after his mindless tariff announcements have sent the market (or individual stock in AAPL's case) into a tailspin, sell after he announces yet another 90 day pause and the markets recover.

Oh, man.  He just found out about this acronym and isn't happy

[Shaka Shart]

Sell sell sell sell sell *wait until the retaliation to that acronym* buy buy buy buy buy buy

[Pakuni]

WASHINGTON (AP) — A federal trade court on Wednesday blocked President Donald Trump from imposing sweeping tariffs on imports under an emergency-powers law.

The ruling from a three-judge panel at the New York-based Court of International Trade came after several lawsuits arguing Trump has exceeded his authority, left U.S. trade policy dependent on his whims and unleashed economic chaos.

https://apnews.com/article/trump-tariffs-trade-court-0392dbd59f548e49ad4f64254ae3f94a

[Shaka Shart]

I'm not updating my financial model again until someone explains what it means

[JWags85]

Oh, man.  He just found out about this acronym and isn't happy

Are we already forgetting how much he loves the taco salads at Trump Tower?

[NCMUFan]

Dang, I was hoping to be the first one to use TACO here. 

FWIW, we did just have a TACO Tuesday.

Today was National Hamburger Day.
Hope everyone showed their spirit.

[Shaka Shart]

Today was National Hamburger Day.
Hope everyone showed their spirit.

Ground beef is too expensive

https://www.cbsnews.com/amp/news/u-s-beef-prices-record-highs-cattle-industry-struggles-to-keep-costs-down/

[Uncle Rico]

Ground beef is too expensive

https://www.cbsnews.com/amp/news/u-s-beef-prices-record-highs-cattle-industry-struggles-to-keep-costs-down/

We used to have Hope, Cash and Jobs.  Now?  We have no Hope, Cash or Jobs.

[MU Fan in Connecticut]

Ground beef is too expensive

https://www.cbsnews.com/amp/news/u-s-beef-prices-record-highs-cattle-industry-struggles-to-keep-costs-down/

Apparently it's going to get higher.  The Atlantic has an article about some flesh eating fly that like kes to eat cattle flesh.  The US using radiated insects unable to breed, over several decades beat it back to the Darien Gap.  It recently broke out and is now back into Mexico already.  It's related to fund cuts and lack of not producing enough irradiated flies to keep in check.  It may take decades to re-beat back provided there is a new concentrated effort from the US Government.

[MU Fan in Connecticut]

I'm not updating my financial model again until someone explains what it means

My understanding is using the 1977 Emergency Powers act which is for real emergencies like natural disasters, terrorist attacks, pandemics, nuclear exchange, etc. does not permit the executive branch from using it to declare an "emergency" and enact tariffs which are the sole  jurisdiction of Congress. 

I believe steel & aluminum tariffs are valid and would remain as it falls under another law.

My 2 cents.