Investing Thread

[NCMUFan]

Any AAII members on here?
Investors Business Daily subscribers?

[SoCalEagle]

Markets have tuned into the soft-landing narrative about the U.S. economy throughout 2024, and a new report shows the economy has more than recovered from the recession blow dealt to it by the COVID pandemic, buoyed by employment at a near all-time high.

The nonpartisan Center for American Progress in a report Thursday credited bipartisan congressional work during the Trump administration and the Biden-Harris administration's continuation of economic stimulus for pushing real Gross Domestic Product beyond growth projections made by the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office.

https://seekingalpha.com/news/4176913-solid-labor-market-fuels-real-gdp-past-pre-covid-pre-biden-admin-growth-views-report

Actually, I'm hearing more about the "no landing" narrative than anything else.  We went from guaranteed recession, to hard landing, to soft landing, and now no landing (i.e. the economy keeps growing at faster clip than normal for the foreseeable future).  Whatever happens from here, the US economy has proven to be strong over the past few years despite the transitory inflation we experienced. 
 

[MU82]

Actually, I'm hearing more about the "no landing" narrative than anything else.  We went from guaranteed recession, to hard landing, to soft landing, and now no landing (i.e. the economy keeps growing at faster clip than normal for the foreseeable future).  Whatever happens from here, the US economy has proven to be strong over the past few years despite the transitory inflation we experienced. 

Glad I stayed invested, yes.

[rocket surgeon]

I touted utilities earlier this year, and here's a major reason why:

Utilities outperform the broader markets amid enthusiasm over AI electricity demand

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/utilities-outperform-the-broader-markets-amid-enthusiasm-over-ai-electricity-demand-175702728.html?

One could argue that utes have run up too high too fast, but the power these mega-companies need has to come from somewhere.

My favorites have been NEE and WEC, though I hold a few others too such as SO and PNW.

constellation energy has announced an agreement with Microsoft to provide the needed energy to power their data centers.  this has constellation powering up unit 1 at three mile island=URANIUM BABY!!

   I've been heavily invested in uranium-cameco(CCJ), dennison mines(DNN) and UR-energy(URG) since 2010.   

  although it might be a little bit late to the game with constellation, i got into ccj with some basis at $10-15, dnn around 0.25-0.50 and urg 0.75...

there is still a lot of room for dnn especially with some analyst strong buy forecasts up to $6.(presently $2.38)  hoping ccj starts offering a better dividend.  urg presently at $1.33 with strong buys to $2.60's

GO BIG U!! 

[MU82]

constellation energy has announced an agreement with Microsoft to provide the needed energy to power their data centers.  this has constellation powering up unit 1 at three mile island=URANIUM BABY!!

   I've been heavily invested in uranium-cameco(CCJ), dennison mines(DNN) and UR-energy(URG) since 2010.   

  although it might be a little bit late to the game with constellation, i got into ccj with some basis at $10-15, dnn around 0.25-0.50 and urg 0.75...

there is still a lot of room for dnn especially with some analyst strong buy forecasts up to $6.(presently $2.38)  hoping ccj starts offering a better dividend.  urg presently at $1.33 with strong buys to $2.60's

GO BIG U!!

Not my investing style - I'm much more boring, mostly brand-name, dividend-growing stocks - but it sounds like you found something you're comfortable with that's doing well. Good luck!

[rocket surgeon]

Not my investing style - I'm much more boring, mostly brand-name, dividend-growing stocks - but it sounds like you found something you're comfortable with that's doing well. Good luck!

I feel I'm pretty well diversified along with the uranium with a lot of AI and some nice divy stocks-energy and mining have done well too.  bought ge before the break up into vernova and health care and aerospace, had pioneer natural resources at a 12% divy before Exxon bought them. wood field energy pays an 8% divy, Rio tinto a 6.7%, altria(MO) pays an 8.2%, BHP 5.1%, tfc 4.8%.  dvn 5%, along with an assortment of funds, but thank you!

[rocky_warrior]

I think we can all agree energy is a hot sector, but sounds like LNG should not be for long:

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/10/23/a-tidal-wave-of-lng-supply-will-reshape-global-markets-says-rbc-capital.html

[MU82]

From the Wall Street Journal:

The Number - 2.5%

The projected expansion of the U.S. GDP in the fourth quarter from a year earlier—half a percentage point higher than a July forecast, the IMF said. The growth would be the fastest among the G7 wealthy nations. The IMF attributed the rosy outlook to higher nonresidential investment and stronger consumer spending, which is supported by rising real, or inflation-adjusted, wages. Real wages tend to rise when productivity grows.

[MU82]

From Fidelity Investments:

A major potential tailwind from oil prices and interest rates has largely gone unnoticed. Yields on 10-year Treasury bonds fell significantly during the 12 months through mid-September, as inflation declined and the market anticipated the Fed's interest-rate cut. Meanwhile, crude oil prices fell steeply over the same period, as oil supplies increased and demand weakened.

Simultaneous drops of this magnitude have been relatively rare in the past—and it's particularly rare for them to occur without significant job losses. But when they have occurred, they typically have served as a strong tailwind for stocks. After periods in which both fell 15% or more, as they did this time, the S&P 500® has returned 18.9% on average over the next 12 months.

The historical data bears out this relationship, but it also makes intuitive sense. Falling interest rates and oil prices leave more in consumers' pockets, letting them spend more. And they leave more in company coffers, helping them deliver stronger earnings. In combination, they can provide a powerful economic stimulus.

[Shaka Shart]

I think we can all agree energy is a hot sector, but sounds like LNG should not be for long:

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/10/23/a-tidal-wave-of-lng-supply-will-reshape-global-markets-says-rbc-capital.html

Hold your position on renewables this morning Rocky. I realized I forgot my computer at home after walking into the office

[Skatastrophy]

From Fidelity Investments:

A major potential tailwind from oil prices and interest rates has largely gone unnoticed. Yields on 10-year Treasury bonds fell significantly during the 12 months through mid-September, as inflation declined and the market anticipated the Fed's interest-rate cut. Meanwhile, crude oil prices fell steeply over the same period, as oil supplies increased and demand weakened.

Simultaneous drops of this magnitude have been relatively rare in the past—and it's particularly rare for them to occur without significant job losses. But when they have occurred, they typically have served as a strong tailwind for stocks. After periods in which both fell 15% or more, as they did this time, the S&P 500® has returned 18.9% on average over the next 12 months.

The historical data bears out this relationship, but it also makes intuitive sense. Falling interest rates and oil prices leave more in consumers' pockets, letting them spend more. And they leave more in company coffers, helping them deliver stronger earnings. In combination, they can provide a powerful economic stimulus.

In the past falling oil demand meant lower energy usage, but now? It is coupled with continual green energy sources coming online.  Economic oil demand measures need to be recalculated as overall energy demand as we continue our march toward diversified energy sources.

[JWags85]

This is MASSIVE.  Huge development in the ongoing Taiwan/CCP tensions

https://x.com/business/status/1849534815143370815?s=46

[rocky_warrior]

This is MASSIVE.  Huge development in the ongoing Taiwan/CCP tensions

https://x.com/business/status/1849534815143370815?s=46

It is big, but I hate giving X clicks

Bloomberg @business
TSMC has achieved early production yields at its first plant in Arizona that surpass similar factories in Taiwan, a significant breakthrough for a US expansion project initially dogged by delays and worker strife

And more details:
https://www.tomshardware.com/tech-industry/semiconductors/tsmc-arizona-fab-delivers-4-percent-more-yield-than-comparable-facilities-in-taiwan

[MU82]

It is big, but I hate giving X clicks
And more details:
https://www.tomshardware.com/tech-industry/semiconductors/tsmc-arizona-fab-delivers-4-percent-more-yield-than-comparable-facilities-in-taiwan

CHIPS Act doing its thing.

[Herman Cain]

Equity Markets ,Economy and Politics are not always correlated .

We have strong equity markets getting frothy. Treasury Bond markets have actually trended lower since rate cut.

Based on the data we see every day in our company, Economy is lukewarm being modestly supported by typical election year release of appropriated funds.

We are a B:B with thousands of customers who are tethered to all the key sectors of economy.  Seeing lots of layoffs and employees much easier to find . Not seeing any extraordinary growth. Industrial property values have pulled back.

Gridlock ( split control of Congress/ Executive Branch. has historically been best political environment for markets.

One area we have not been seeing a lot of discussion of is China unwinding position in US Treasuries . Many US businesses pulling out of China. Possibility to see China invest in other countries/ regions more receptive to mercantile relations.

If we have a Santa Claus rally at end of year it may appropriate to evaluate selling more speculative positions and raising cash.

Putting together a shopping list for eventual pullback. Will look to add to existing positions and also add companies with strong commitments to dividends

[Uncle Rico]

Equity Markets ,Economy and Politics are not always correlated .

We have strong equity markets getting frothy. Treasury Bond markets have actually trended lower since rate cut.

Based on the data we see every day in our company, Economy is lukewarm being modestly supported by typical election year release of appropriated funds.

We are a B:B with thousands of customers who are tethered to all the key sectors of economy.  Seeing lots of layoffs and employees much easier to find . Not seeing any extraordinary growth. Industrial property values have pulled back.

Gridlock ( split control of Congress/ Executive Branch. has historically been best political environment for markets.

One area we have not been seeing a lot of discussion of is China unwinding position in US Treasuries . Many US businesses pulling out of China. Possibility to see China invest in other countries/ regions more receptive to mercantile relations.

If we have a Santa Claus rally at end of year it may appropriate to evaluate selling more speculative positions and raising cash.

Putting together a shopping list for eventual pullback. Will look to add to existing positions and also add companies with strong commitments to dividends

lol

[Skatastrophy]

Forwards from my grandpa, RIP

[MU82]

lol

Well, 9-9-9 is right that there eventually will be a pullback. There always is. And if you predict one every day for years - as has been the case with some nattering nabobs of negativism for 3 years now - you'll eventually be right.

[Uncle Rico]

Well, 9-9-9 is right that there eventually will be a pullback. There always is. And if you predict one every day for years - as has been the case with some nattering nabobs of negativism for 3 years now - you'll eventually be right.

The next time Buffoon Cain is right will be the first time

[tower912]

Well, 9-9-9 is right that there eventually will be a pullback. There always is. And if you predict one every day for years - as has been the case with some nattering nabobs of negativism for 3 years now - you'll eventually be right.

There was a scene in Cheers where Rebecca had agreed to sleep with Sam.  Sam pulls out an envelope and says look at this and the paper in the envelope accurately predicted the date Rebecca would sleep with him.  His audience was impressed with his prescience.  He said that he had done one every day since they started working together.

[MU82]

More solid GDP growth - 2.8% - along with an addition of 223K jobs in October.

Economy continues to move right along.

Big earnings report from GOOGL, too.

[MuggsyB]

The Fed is going to continue to cut rates.  +12K jobs in Oct. 

[Lennys Tap]

The Fed is going to continue to cut rates.  +12K jobs in Oct. 

Bad October plus downward revisions for September and August. Bad news for the economy, good news for rate cuts.

[Frenns Liquor Depot]

I think this months release is hard to look at because of Boeing strike impact and hurricane disruptions. 

[MU82]

I think this months release is hard to look at because of Boeing strike impact and hurricane disruptions. 

Yes, that is pretty much the accepted stance of economists.

But this report, a long with the inflation report showing things are still slowly getting better in that department (or at least getting "less worse"), will probably help push along the next rate cut. Most experts I read are still saying .25% this month.