Investing Thread

[Uncle Rico]

The market is a component of the economy, it doesn't tell the full story.  And a ton of money has been pumped in.  We still have major inflation issues and the jobs we're creating are generally government and in the medical field.  The cost of living has increased exponentially,and we still have a lot of work to do.   

Not anymore. 

[forgetful]

The market is a component of the economy, it doesn't tell the full story.  And a ton of money has been pumped in.  We still have major inflation issues and the jobs we're creating are generally government and in the medical field.  The cost of living has increased exponentially,and we still have a lot of work to do.   

We can agree to disagree. Doesn't mean I'm right, as I'm not an expert in investing. I will say though that some of the dogs in my portfolio, that I held as a hedge bet have greatly outperformed over the past 2-weeks and are now wins...so I'm happy about that.

[SoCalEagle]

Of course there will be. My point was really to highlight the fact that we are in the midst of a Golden Economy right now, that is outperforming the entire world.

My concern from an investing standpoint is that what is going to happen will be akin to what I was concerned about back in 2017/18 and discussed (I believe on here).

The economy is booming, it is on fire, like it was then. What is likely to happen is that policies will be enacted that are pro-expansion, that will be like pouring gasoline on a fire. It is not needed, but it removes from the table the policy actions that we usually reserve for economies that are stagnating.

What happens then when a economic crises happens (read 2020), is we do not have any of our traditional levers to pull, because they have all been used to pour gasoline on the fire, so we have to use untraditional levers that lead to increased inflation.

The market moves over the last few days have the same concerns and are based on predicting new inflation.

The economy is doing just fine, but I would not say it is on fire.  GDP expansion is running at 2.8.  Very good, but not overheated.  Same with inflation at 2.4, a good reading for sure.  Same with unemployment.  All good numbers. 

I think what you are trying to communicate is that the stock market is booming.  I agree, it certainly feels that way.  But, is that accurate?  If we look at the last 12 to 24 months I would certainly be in your camp, things look like they're booming.  But, zoom out a little further and over the last 36 months we are up an average of 9.34% annualized (S&P 500 numbers).  That's good, but not "booming / on fire."  Who the hell knows the real answer?  Not me, that's for sure.  Just trying to give a little perspective.   

[SoCalEagle]

The market is a component of the economy, it doesn't tell the full story.  And a ton of money has been pumped in.  We still have major inflation issues and the jobs we're creating are generally government and in the medical field.  The cost of living has increased exponentially,and we still have a lot of work to do.   

Muggs, a ton of money was pumped in, but that was years ago.  We are almost in 2025 and you are referencing something that happened in 2020/2021.  Actually, the opposite of what you wrote is true.  Since 2022, we have been trying to slow the economy, not stimulate it.  Both a rise of the fed funds rate and a reduction in quantitative easing have been in place for a long time now (just coming out of that phase over the last couple of months).  What "a lot of work to do" are you seeing out there?  Inflation is very tame at 2.4%.  If you are trying to go back in time and attack the short lived 8% inflation rate that peaked and disappeared over a year ago you are chasing a ghost.  At least that's what I see.  Do you see things differently?   

[Shaka Shart]

The inventory stock up of goods manufactured in Asia will have an interesting pricing effect on consumers, even if the tariffs don't pan out. We are buying a fridge and there's big time sales everywhere with the glut of post Covid inventory they didn't adjust for demand.

Wonder if the anticipated pricing variance will be passed along regardless and start juicing the margins on 2025 earnings reports.

[jesmu84]

I should have bought more crypto and private prison

[jesmu84]

Anyone buying DOGE now that it's official?

[Hards Alumni]

Anyone buying DOGE now that it's official?

Official what?  Trash?

[MU82]

On Sept. 8, 2023, Douchey said that anybody who invested in Disney (DIS) was a moron. It closed at $81.58 that day.

The company delivered a very good earnings report today, and offered outstanding guidance for 2025. It is up about 7% on the day and trading at $110.06 as I write this.

That's a 35% gain for all the stoopid morons who invested in it 14 months ago.

Not quite the kind of numbers put up by Apple since Douchey said that was a bad investment, but not bad.

[Skatastrophy]

Isn't that underperforming the market though?

[MU82]

Isn't that underperforming the market though?

Not after today.

[MU82]

Isn't that underperforming the market though?

My previous answer probably sounded snarky; that wasn't my intent. Just ran the numbers, and since Sept. 8, 2023, DIS has a 42.17% total return while SPY has a 33.73% total return.

So, to answer your question ... no, DIS has pretty significantly outperformed the market.

The question, of course, is if that will continue. And the answer is ... I have no earthly idea. (And neither does Douchey.) But I'm a long-term investor, and I'm not planning to sell my DIS.

[Skatastrophy]

Yeah no big. DIS had just underperformed the total us market in the past year and I didn't want to look up the cherry picked dates.

[MU82]

Yeah no big. DIS had just underperformed the total us market in the past year and I didn't want to look up the cherry picked dates.

DIS had definitely been an underperformer for several years.

[Shaka Shart]

Big news for our resident teeth boys

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/11/18/dental-supply-stock-rallies-on-theory-rfks-anti-fluoride-stance-will-prompt-more-dentist-visits.html

[GB Warrior]

Big news for our resident teeth boys

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/11/18/dental-supply-stock-rallies-on-theory-rfks-anti-fluoride-stance-will-prompt-more-dentist-visits.html

This means I need to start buying toothpaste again...all a ploy by Big Toothpaste

[rocket surgeon]

Big news for our resident teeth boys

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/11/18/dental-supply-stock-rallies-on-theory-rfks-anti-fluoride-stance-will-prompt-more-dentist-visits.html

if people don't want to believe us when we try to give them something that would prevent them from seeing us and they scream force drugging when it's put in to the municipal water supplies. 

pay me now or pay me later

if your car mechanic tells you a certain oil or octane gas is best and would prolong the life of your car and keep it from breaking down more...

[jesmu84]

if people don't want to believe us when we try to give them something that would prevent them from seeing us and they scream force drugging when it's put in to the municipal water supplies. 

pay me now or pay me later

if your car mechanic tells you a certain oil or octane gas is best and would prolong the life of your car and keep it from breaking down more...

Who is "us"?

[GB Warrior]

if people don't want to believe us when we try to give them something that would prevent them from seeing us and they scream force drugging when it's put in to the municipal water supplies. 

pay me now or pay me later

if your car mechanic tells you a certain oil or octane gas is best and would prolong the life of your car and keep it from breaking down more...

Ok fauci

[MU82]

if people don't want to believe us when we try to give them something that would prevent them from seeing us and they scream force drugging when it's put in to the municipal water supplies. 

pay me now or pay me later

if your car mechanic tells you a certain oil or octane gas is best and would prolong the life of your car and keep it from breaking down more...

You know who "people" is in this case, right?

[rocky_warrior]

You should all know "Victim of Moderator Cancel cultureThis is what Orwell warned us about...SMH" was banned for his comment.  Proceed at your own risk

[Lennys Tap]

DIS had definitely been an underperformer for several years.

Yep. Unless you were smart enough to pick its most recent bottom it's been a terrible investment. IOW what you could say about most bad investments.

[rocky_warrior]

Yep. Unless you were smart enough to pick its most recent bottom it's been a terrible investment. IOW what you could say about most bad investments.

Since 2015 it's been a "bad" investment.  Since 1985 it's returned about 9000%!!!

(S&P 500 is about 7500% in the same timeframe)

Perspective Lenny.

[Lennys Tap]

Since 2015 it's been a "bad" investment.  Since 1985 it's returned about 9000%!!!

(S&P 500 is about 7500% in the same timeframe)

Perspective Lenny.

Agree, Rocky. It's only been a bad investment for 10 years. Maybe it will become a great investment again. But I dropped it from portfolios years ago and its bounces (including the most recent one) haven't convinced me that time has arrived yet.

[MU82]

I sold my long-held and well-in-the-green DIS position pretty early in the pandemic because I thought it could lose 75% of its value and take years to recover.

It didn't get as bad as I thought it would, and I bought it back gradually the last couple of years in the $80s and $90s. Long-term, I think it's going to be a solid company.