Investing Thread

[Uncle Rico]

No offense, but this is way off base. Tesla is years behind in self driving tech. Engineers want to work at Cruise, Waymo and Argo.AI. They all have J3016 Level 4-capable vehicles in production. Tesla is struggling with J3016 Level 2-capable functionality.

Kinda like saying that the best engineers want to work at Apple, when in reality it's a marketing/design agency parading as a tech company.

Edit: To be a bit more open minded, maybe the best battery tech engineers want to work at Tesla? I don't know a lot about that space, just software.

Correct.  Self-driving tech is something I've been following for years.  Tesla isn't close to the others out there chasing it

[jficke13]

FWIW I'm very skeptical of the viability of truly autonomous vehicle technology. Narrow applications in pre-programmable settings (farm fields, industrial sites, mining applications, warehouses)? Maybe. But Hop in the jalopy, turn on the tv, and ride to work in the morning? Very doubtful.

Not impossible, mind you, but near and medium term I think it's unlikely to come to fruition.

[rocket surgeon]

in all honesty, the "self-driving" capability of an EV is low on my list for choosing a brand.  it's going to be a long time before i take my hands off the wheel and eyes off the road while driving down hwy 294 onto the dan ryan or any hwy for that matter.  "trust but verify"

[rocky_warrior]

Edit: To be a bit more open minded, maybe the best battery tech engineers want to work at Tesla? I don't know a lot about that space, just software.

Perhaps (and I only do a little reading about batteries) but when it comes to grid connected batteries - it seems like the "old" technology of iron-air batteries are the hot new thing.  That's primarily due to cost & material availability ... and new innovation that allows them to be recharged. (https://formenergy.com/)

And there are plenty of other firms innovating batteries - which will go into EVs.

[MU Fan in Connecticut]

Oh, no doubt, but they weren't invested in as a car company.  And their car tech has been surpassed and improved upon by the larger auto makers

They certainly get the kudos for forcing change.

Tesla has definitely forced the change.

Other than the Mustang, the large automakers haven't even really released there A vehicles yet.  Most everything released is just the initial offering.  They are coming like the 2024 Chevy Equinox. 

If interested, here is the trade magazine for EVs and Batteries.
Charged Magazine
https://chargedevs.com/

[GOO]

I wouldn't limit the term tech to self driving. I don't know enough, you could definitely be right. Tesla maybe behind. 

Engineers wanting to work at Tesla as their number one choice, I'd put as a solid verifiable fact. Maybe there is a nuance in the number one place for self driving engineers, I don't know.

I will say that recent articles I've read go out of there way to praise Mercedes highway, but in doing so gloss over how well Tesla performs on the freeways (better) and instead compare teslas city driving to (others including Mercedes)  highway driving.  Seems like a stretch to get the result they want. Makes me suspect like the hummer Prius comparisons.  Yes Mercedes will be applying for freeway level 3. Tesla won't and doesn't need to yet, to sell cars.  I will give credit to Mercedes for accepting liability for accidents once approved, but I'm sure there will be plenty of fine print as any company would do.

I don't post a lot and don't have time to get in a back and forth. So let's just say tesla is behind on self driving. I still would buy a Tesla for a lot of reasons if looking at an ev. Self driving is way down the list of reasons why I'd choose one ev over another, anyway. I suspect that's true for most people for the next 5 years or more.

[Skatastrophy]

I wouldn't limit the term tech to self driving. I don't know enough, you could definitely be right. Tesla maybe behind. 

Engineers wanting to work at Tesla as their number one choice, I'd put as a solid verifiable fact. Maybe there is a nuance in the number one place for self driving engineers, I don't know.

I will say that recent articles I've read go out of there way to praise Mercedes highway, but in doing so gloss over how well Tesla performs on the freeways (better) and instead compare teslas city driving to (others including Mercedes)  highway driving.  Seems like a stretch to get the result they want. Makes me suspect like the hummer Prius comparisons.  Yes Mercedes will be applying for freeway level 3. Tesla won't and doesn't need to yet, to sell cars.  I will give credit to Mercedes for accepting liability for accidents once approved, but I'm sure there will be plenty of fine print as any company would do.

I don't post a lot and don't have time to get in a back and forth. So let's just say tesla is behind on self driving. I still would buy a Tesla for a lot of reasons if looking at an ev. Self driving is way down the list of reasons why I'd choose one ev over another, anyway. I suspect that's true for most people for the next 5 years or more.

Yeah I hear ya. Thanks for your 2c.

I'd probably buy a Hyundai Ioniq 5 if I were in the market, but that's mostly because Tesla is behind in car manufacturing quality (panel/parts fitment, reliability, and ability to maintain) and driver usability (needing to go a few menus deep on a touchscreen to turn on windshield wipers), but I agree that most other car manufacturers haven't caught up where it's important: Range.

I don't think Tesla is a bad company. I would just be concerned, as an investor, that the other major players have caught up so fast. They seem to have 0 moat. I think it's more likely that Tesla gets acquired rather than fail.

[Hards Alumni]

Having owned a Tesla and a precvious ev, and having done  research on a mustang EV (which I wouldn't touch until GM makes a lot of improvements), I would say that Tesla makes the best mid-priced ev's by far. Too many factors to list, but I wouldn't touch any other mid-priced ev right now except Tesla and maybe Kia/Hyundai. Kia /Hyundai could be the first real rival for the mid-priced ev crowd. BMW Mercedes are close and more refined if you want "luxury" over tech, but they sell the old fashioned way and you end up optioning out and ending up with an expensive car. Oh, and you want heated seats - pay on subscription.  Really!  GM still using resistive heaters, really!

With the price cuts, Tesla is going to sell as many cars as they can produce.  They are set to ramp production.  A money machine. It was a steal at 108 a share. Maybe a long term buy still at 170. What is the energy/battery division going to be worth if it continues to build and gets spun off?  I have no idea, but there is a lot there besides the cars.

Tesla is still so far out ahead, tech, efficiency, updates etc. best engineers want to go there.

Be careful what you read. Reminds me of when there were articles such as the Hummer is more efficient and environmental friendly than a Prius. Until you dig under the hood and see that they assume the Prius is junked at 100k miles and the Hummer is junked after 300k plus miles to make the numbers work.  Obviously history shows just the opposite is true.

This reads more like a fan boy anecdote than the reality.  Teslas are unreliable, poorly assembled, and poorly engineered.

Their tech is amazing.

[Hards Alumni]

Yeah I hear ya. Thanks for your 2c.

I'd probably buy a Hyundai Ioniq 5 if I were in the market, but that's mostly because Tesla is behind in car manufacturing quality (panel/parts fitment, reliability, and ability to maintain) and driver usability (needing to go a few menus deep on a touchscreen to turn on windshield wipers), but I agree that most other car manufacturers haven't caught up where it's important: Range.

I don't think Tesla is a bad company. I would just be concerned, as an investor, that the other major players have caught up so fast. They seem to have 0 moat. I think it's more likely that Tesla gets acquired rather than fail.

Agreed, also, the Ioniq 5's look pretty cool

[GOO]

This reads more like a fan boy anecdote than the reality.  Teslas are unreliable, poorly assembled, and poorly engineered.

Their tech is amazing.

Correct fit and finish has been poor. If you're a picky, buyer, Teslas not for you. 

To expand on the above, fit and finish from 2018 to now is greatly improved. I'd disagree with unreliable and poorly engineered.

[JWags85]

Agreed, also, the Ioniq 5's look pretty cool

Thats amusing cause I think the front head on is stylish, but otherwise I think it looks like a futuristic VW Rabbit

[Hards Alumni]

Thats amusing cause I think the front head on is stylish, but otherwise I think it looks like a futuristic VW Rabbit

Yeah which is cool!

[GOO]

I like the ev6. I'd say a 3, Y, Ioniq, or ev6 all seem like the best choices and only ones I'd consider at this time in the mid-price range.  Due to the supercharger network I'd stick stick with the 3 or Y of you travel moderately. That hopefully will change in the next 3 years with charger buildouts. Charged at a gas station for the first time on a trip over Christmas. 

Should have added the niro as a smaller car.

[MU82]

My daughter and SIL have a 2019 Tesla Model X. My SIL is a technogeek who is an engineer for a large tech company, and he loves the car's gadgets and whistles and bells.

I have gotten to drive and ride in the car at least 100 times by now, and it's stunning how poor the fit and finish is for a car that retailed for more than $100K new. It rattles and creaks, and driving over a bumpy road is borderline painful. It's fast, but it doesn't handle very crisply. But it does have doors that look like something from Star Wars when they open, so that's cool. It also has a really great info/entertainment system, with a screen larger than the TV I owned when I went to MU.

What I find interesting when I read about Tesla satisfaction surveys is that the cars -- especially the less-expensive choices like the 3 and the Y -- get horrible grades from owners as listed in Consumer Reports. But when asked if they'd buy a Tesla again, the majority of owners say yes. So a lot of Tesla owners don't particularly like a lot of things about their cars, but they seem to like the cache of driving the Tesla brand.

My daughter doesn't love their Model X, nor does she hate it. "It's fine."

[jesmu84]

Took multiple test drives in 2021/22. Multiple in each of the model 3, model Y, Ioniq5, machE, EV6, Bolt EUV.

Purchased the EV6 2/2022 (days before the Ukraine invasion and subsequent increased gas prices... Heh)

Love it. Wouldn't trade for any of the other EVs on the road in this price range)

Anyone who has extensive experience with EVs can tell you how misleading range estimates are. Tesla is notorious for marketing BS regarding achieved range.

[MU82]

Took multiple test drives in 2021/22. Multiple in each of the model 3, model Y, Ioniq5, machE, EV6, Bolt EUV.

Purchased the EV6 2/2022 (days before the Ukraine invasion and subsequent increased gas prices... Heh)

Love it. Wouldn't trade for any of the other EVs on the road in this price range)

Anyone who has extensive experience with EVs can tell you how misleading range estimates are. Tesla is notorious for marketing BS regarding achieved range.

I've heard great things about the EV6. Hope it's a wonderful vehicle for you for many years, jesmu.

[Skatastrophy]

Took multiple test drives in 2021/22. Multiple in each of the model 3, model Y, Ioniq5, machE, EV6, Bolt EUV.

Purchased the EV6 2/2022 (days before the Ukraine invasion and subsequent increased gas prices... Heh)

Love it. Wouldn't trade for any of the other EVs on the road in this price range)

Anyone who has extensive experience with EVs can tell you how misleading range estimates are. Tesla is notorious for marketing BS regarding achieved range.

Both the EV6 and Ioniq 6 are built off of Hyundai's Electric-Global Modular Platform, along with the Genesis GV60 and GV90. All well-platformed cars made by people that make highly-usable cars. I dunno if they're going to be the long-term winners, but right now the Koreans are putting out some top tier stuff.

As an american, I'm really rooting for Tesla. They're our only shot at a modern top-tier car maker. They're just really screwing the pooch, flubbed their lead in the space.

[jesmu84]

Both the EV6 and Ioniq 6 are built off of Hyundai's Electric-Global Modular Platform, along with the Genesis GV60 and GV90. All well-platformed cars made by people that make highly-usable cars. I dunno if they're going to be the long-term winners, but right now the Koreans are putting out some top tier stuff.

As an american, I'm really rooting for Tesla. They're our only shot at a modern top-tier car maker. They're just really screwing the pooch, flubbed their lead in the space.

I wasn't even aware there was a GV90 coming out!

But you forgot the EV9, Ioniq6 and ioniq7

In terms of American EVs, hoping the equinox and blazers are a success. Lincoln should have one soon. Haven't seen many reviews of the Cadillac Lyriq

[MU82]

Ford could have a major, major winner with Lightning. Long waiting list, both for individuals and businesses. Ford could dominate that part of the EV industry.

But they have had trouble actually getting them produced, with delay after delay. And there also has been significant criticism about the Lightning's ability to tow a load of any size -- obviously a problem, because lots of truck-owners want to tow boats, campers, etc, and lots of contractors and other small-business owners need trucks that can tow their supplies.

If they don't get all that fixed, Ford will have wasted a massive opportunity.

[tower912]

Supply chain issues with the chips have seriously impacted Ford.    They have actually come up with several winners lately.    Bronco, Bronco Sport, F-150 Lightning, Maverick, Mach-E.     But, due to the supply chain, there are multiple month to multiple year waits when you order one.    And then the dealers are getting involved and making it worse by selling cars out from under people because somebody out bid the agreed upon price.   

[jesmu84]

Supply chain issues with the chips have seriously impacted Ford.    They have actually come up with several winners lately.    Bronco, Bronco Sport, F-150 Lightning, Maverick, Mach-E.     But, due to the supply chain, there are multiple month to multiple year waits when you order one.    And then the dealers are getting involved and making it worse by selling cars out from under people because somebody out bid the agreed upon price.   

If the maverick had an EV power train, it would FLY off the shelves.

The other barrier to EV purchasing...dealers/markups

I called 27 Kia dealerships in IN, OH, IL and KY. I visited 5 around Indianapolis. I found 1 that would sell me an EV6 at MSRP. And I had to drive to Lexington to get it. Every other dealer I spoke with was AT LEAST $5K markup

[tower912]

A good friend's wife had ordered a Chevy Trailblazer 7 months ago.   The week after Christmas she got a notification that hers was being shipped and would be at the dealership on (date).  She called the dealership to make arrangements and they told her that because she was trying to use the GM employee family discount, they had sold 'her' car to a.purchaser willing to pay sticker+.

Kolek them.

I am not purchasing a new car until I can go to a lot, drive one, and pick the one I like.

[jesmu84]

A good friend's wife had ordered a Chevy Trailblazer 7 months ago.   The week after Christmas she got a notification that hers was being shipped and would be at the dealership on (date).  She called the dealership to make arrangements and they told her that because she was trying to use the GM employee family discount, they had sold 'her' car to a.purchaser willing to pay sticker+.

Kolek them.

I am not purchasing a new car until I can go to a lot, drive one, and pick the one I like.

I think you're going to be frustrated.

I think manufacturers and dealers realized they don't need 250+ vehicles sitting on lots anymore. People will still buy.

[tower912]

I've got time.

[MU82]

Interesting graphic from Yahoo Finance showing that while some of the recently announced tech-company layoffs seem huge, they are pretty small compared to the considerable amount of hiring that took place the last 3 years.