Investing Thread

[rocket surgeon]

looks like time to buy some more tesla at $125!!

  big buy rating- average target price of $270 with a high ceiling of around $450

  i don't care if he tweets out his back side, numbers are numbers

[MU82]

If Musk steps down as Twitter CEO, the short term rip in TSLA is gonna melt some shorts faces off.

Definitely could happen that way. You buying, Wags?

I own a fairly small TSLA position; it’s down about 25% now. I wouldn’t mind owning more but I can’t figure out any kind of price as the knife falls. I’ve put in a few limit orders over the last few weeks but (thankfully) I’ve canceled each and lowered it the next day.

[tower912]

Third quarter growth revised upward to 3.2%.   The stock market is displeased.

[MU82]

Third quarter growth revised upward to 3.2%.   The stock market is displeased.

Good news is bad news. Fear the Fed.

[Hards Alumni]

looks like time to buy some more tesla at $125!!

  big buy rating- average target price of $270 with a high ceiling of around $450

  i don't care if he tweets out his back side, numbers are numbers

You should probably read the news.  Elon is in full meltdown and can't get out of his own way. 

[Uncle Rico]

You should probably read the news.  Elon is in full meltdown and can't get out of his own way.

Do you know who you’re talking to?

[TSmith34, Inc.]

looks like time to buy some more tesla at $125!!

More TSLA, eh?

How much are you in the hole on your existing shares?

[MU82]

Musk says he's done selling stock ... but has bleak outlook for economy and industry

https://seekingalpha.com/news/3920147-tesla-up-2-afterhours-as-ceo-elon-musk-says-he-will-pause-his-share-sales-for-two-years?mailingid=30066724&messageid=portfolio&serial=30066724.2950&utm_campaign=nl-portfolio&utm_content=portfolio_digest&utm_medium=email&utm_source=seeking_alpha&utm_term=30066724.2950

Tesla Chief Executive Officer Elon Musk said on Thursday he will not sell any more Tesla stock for about two years.

While speaking in a Twitter Spaces audio chat, Musk said he expects economy to be in "serious recession" in 2023, reducing demand.

His comments came after a Tesla stock sell-off deepened on Thursday over worries about softening demand for electric cars and Musk's distraction with Twitter and his stock sales.

"I won't sell stock until I don't know probably two years from now. Definitely not next year under any circumstances and probably not the year thereafter," Musk said.

[jesmu84]

Musk says he's done selling stock ... but has bleak outlook for economy and industry

https://seekingalpha.com/news/3920147-tesla-up-2-afterhours-as-ceo-elon-musk-says-he-will-pause-his-share-sales-for-two-years?mailingid=30066724&messageid=portfolio&serial=30066724.2950&utm_campaign=nl-portfolio&utm_content=portfolio_digest&utm_medium=email&utm_source=seeking_alpha&utm_term=30066724.2950

Tesla Chief Executive Officer Elon Musk said on Thursday he will not sell any more Tesla stock for about two years.

While speaking in a Twitter Spaces audio chat, Musk said he expects economy to be in "serious recession" in 2023, reducing demand.

His comments came after a Tesla stock sell-off deepened on Thursday over worries about softening demand for electric cars and Musk's distraction with Twitter and his stock sales.

"I won't sell stock until I don't know probably two years from now. Definitely not next year under any circumstances and probably not the year thereafter," Musk said.

He's said this before and then went on to sell anyway.

My guess is he actually doesn't need to this time as the world cup gave him the opportunity to secure qatari/Saudi/kushner/griffin money

[MU82]

Tesla's stock price chart directly reflects his Twitter distraction.



It was near its all-time high in April before Musk announced plans to buy Twitter. It plummeted for a couple months and started to recover when it looked like the deal might fall apart. An overall market rally helped the shares recover much of their losses through September. As it became apparent the deal would officially get done, the price started going down significantly. And since the deal was finalized in October, and Musk began unloading TSLA shares to pay for the company he didn't even want, it has plunged.

Yes, TSLA was one of numerous tech names that was extremely overvalued, so a price adjustment during an overall market swoon was likely regardless. But Musk poured gasoline on the fire, and he has played an oversized role in damaging TSLA shareholders.

[Hards Alumni]

More TSLA, eh?

How much are you in the hole on your existing shares?

just saw this-been practicing "social distancing" from scoop

yes it is, but at $12, with their cash on hand and 600% increase in bookings over past few days and 200% over same time span 2019, they are going to be ok.  this was a $50 stock last year.  i'll take $35-40 thank you

He is big into taking L's with his cash.  CCL current market value is down to $7.68.  On 5/11/20 CCL was at $12.78.  And we were two months into the start of the pandemic. 

[TSmith34, Inc.]

Musk says he's done selling stock ... but has bleak outlook for economy and industry

"I won't sell stock until I don't know probably two years from now. Definitely not next year under any circumstances and probably not the year thereafter," Musk said.[/i]

He's said this before. He lied.

[rocket surgeon]

More TSLA, eh?

How much are you in the hole on your existing shares?

  time to dollar cost average back up.  original buy in at 185.  i'm not worried, good company and product.  glad to have buying opportunity. 

[Uncle Rico]

  time to dollar cost average back up.  original buy in at 185.  i'm not worried, good company and product.  glad to have buying opportunity.

What’s killed more kids this year?  Tesla or dudes with prosthetic breasts?

[Hards Alumni]

  time to dollar cost average back up.  original buy in at 185.  i'm not worried, good company and product.  glad to have buying opportunity.

Tesla's only current value is their batteries.  They make inferior vehicles to everyone else in the EV market.

Plus self-driving doesn't really seem to be a tech that is working out for Tesla... which is where a ton of their R&D is.

I don't know man, I used to believe in Tesla, but the pace at which the other major auto makers have caught up should be alarming for any investor.

[TSmith34, Inc.]

  time to dollar cost average back up.  original buy in at 185.  i'm not worried, good company and product.  glad to have buying opportunity.

I don't think you understand dollar cost averaging. 125 < 185. You are not dollar cost averaging UP.

Only down another 1.7% today, so things are looking up?

[TSmith34, Inc.]

Cathie Wood’s Ark takes a stake in GM for the first time
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/05/10/cathie-woods-ark-invests-in-gm-for-the-first-time.html

One week later...
GM and Ford Get Double Downgrades to Sell. Wells Fargo Sours on EVs.
https://www.barrons.com/articles/gm-ford-stock-downgrades-51652360514

The investigative stories about her investing process being basically "that sounds neat-o!" and having absolutely no portfolio risk measures are frightening if you are an investor with her.

A cautionary tale. Wood's funds now down 65% on the year. NAV back to where it was in mid-2017. Momentum investing + fanaticism not a good combination.

[rocket surgeon]

I don't think you understand dollar cost averaging. 125 < 185. You are not dollar cost averaging UP.

Only down another 1.7% today, so things are looking up?

  ok, maybe not dollar cost averaging in the traditional sense of the word, but using the low price as a buying opportunity to offset the losses created from the 185 basis, planning on keeping the investment alive and most likely positive going forward...i believe you know what i meant, but whatever.  is there ever a civil moment with you people?? 

[MU82]

  ok, maybe not dollar cost averaging in the traditional sense of the word, but using the low price as a buying opportunity to offset the losses created from the 185 basis, planning on keeping the investment alive and most likely positive going forward...i believe you know what i meant, but whatever.  is there ever a civil moment with you people??

I wish you good fortune with TSLA, and with all of your other investments.

[Uncle Rico]

I wish you good fortune with TSLA, and with all of your other investments.

I base all of my stock purchases on owning the libs

[Hards Alumni]

  ok, maybe not dollar cost averaging in the traditional sense of the word, but using the low price as a buying opportunity to offset the losses created from the 185 basis, planning on keeping the investment alive and most likely positive going forward...i believe you know what i meant, but whatever.  is there ever a civil moment with you people??

He knew, he was just being pedantic.  You're hoping to DCA upwards, but you're DCAing downwards.

Honestly, nothing wrong with that if you believe in the investment long term.

[MU82]

My understand of DCA exactly matches the Investopedia definition of it:

Dollar-cost averaging involves investing the same amount of money in a target security at regular intervals over a certain period of time, regardless of price.

The best example of this for most investors are 401k investments -- every two weeks, no matter whether the market is up or down -- folks have $$$ taken out of their paychecks (often with a company match) and have it invested in an S&P 500 Index, a target-date fund, a total-market fund, etc. This very basic form of DCA has been the best wealth-builder for average Americans because continually investing, especially into something time-tested like SPY, is more important than exactly what one invests in.

Another common example are those who automatically reinvest their dividends (drip). Every quarter, JNJ pays a dividend, and I have instructed my brokerage to automatically reinvest the proceeds into additional JNJ shares. I do that with JNJ and numerous other stocks regardless of price. So over the years, I have bought JNJ low and I have bought JNJ high and at every point in between. It's not enough $$$ to worry about the price every time, and I own only high-quality, blue-chip stocks, so I always want more of them anyway. I have friends who let their dividends come in and as soon as they have, say, $1,000, they then choose where to invest the $$$; that way they believe they are choosing stocks at good valuation points. Either is a good way to gradually build wealth.

[rocket surgeon]

He knew, he was just being pedantic.  You're hoping to DCA upwards, but you're DCAing downwards.

Honestly, nothing wrong with that if you believe in the investment long term.

basing my guarded faith on a few different analyst sites, market watch, seeking alpha, wall street journal... ranks as a buy/moderate buy, but this rating goes up the more the pps goes down.  i've seen the average price targets $272.50-450. 

   twitter really has no affect here despite people being vocal against musk.  beware of the "red herring approach"; numbers are numbers. probably the shorties at work. when they roll out the big rig, if there is any sense of that product being up to standards and an affordable alternative, look out. 

  revenue estimates range from $96 bil-137B with an avg estimate sales growth of 38%.  a lot of numbers can be dissected to prove or disprove a stance. 

  yes, many of the traditional auto companies are hot on tesla heels, but my understanding is they are putting too many eggs into that basket too quickly and taking their eyes off of what got them here.  despite what many people may want(all electric) we just aren't ready.  once the consumer feels ev is a viable/reliable AND affordable alternative, you will see the shift but it's going to be gradual if it happens. 

  next up?  hydrogen fuel cells?  H + O2 =water + electricity + heat

[MU82]

An optimistic year-ending newsletter from NYT financial guy Andrew Ross Sorkin:

As 2022 comes to an end amid stubborn inflation, a “tripledemic,” a climate crisis and a brutal war with no end in sight, it can be difficult to remember that good things happened this year, too.

Coronavirus vaccines became available for children as young as 6 months old, a relief to parents as much of the world returned to a new normal. Rich countries agreed to do more to help poor nations cope with climate disasters. And major scientific breakthroughs brought us a tad closer to long-held ambitious like nuclear fusion power and curing cancer.

Even as the world faces many challenges, there are reasons to be hopeful about 2023 and beyond. In our last Saturday newsletter of 2022, we’ve decided to continue the DealBook tradition of highlighting the most promising developments of the year.

We’re a little closer to a new source of clean energy. After a major breakthrough in nuclear fusion this month, investors are pouring money into companies that want to harness the type of energy that powers the sun and stars. Fusion, if it could be deployed on a large scale, would offer a nearly limitless pollution-free energy source. But until this year, scientists had never created a fusion reaction that produced more energy than it consumed. Scientists at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory in California finally reached that milestone this month. While it could still be decades before fusion becomes a practical power source, the accomplishment is a big step toward that goal.

Real progress is being made in tackling child poverty. The number of children in America living below the poverty line has plummeted by 59 percent since 1993. As The Times’s Jason DeParle reported in September, “child poverty has fallen in every state, and it has fallen by about the same degree among children who are white, Black, Hispanic and Asian, living with one parent or two, and in native or immigrant households.” The improvements coincide with more generous state and federal subsidies for working families, and changes to welfare laws that make it easier for struggling households to apply for assistance programs.

Wall Street and venture capitalists are as bullish as ever on green tech. In his year-end letter, Bill Gates notes that climate-related R. & D. has grown nearly a third since the 2015 Paris accords. Private capital investment in the sector is on the upswing too, with $70 billion spent over the past two years. From that, new technologies to address climate issues are continuing to emerge. At the DealBook Summit in November, Larry Fink, C.E.O. of BlackRock, predicted that venture funding would flow more into start-ups using hard science to tackle the planet’s biggest problems. “I believe we will be seeing a transformation of where the money goes,” Fink said. “It’s not going to go to all this stuff that provided us good utility to get food quicker or find a taxi sooner.”

Bots probably won’t take your job — and could make it easier. Fears that technology will replace human workers are as old as technology, and they were raised once again in November when a company called OpenAI released ChatGPT, an automated writing program. But AI experts have long insisted that such technologies have limitations that prevent them from fully replacing humans. What the bots can do well is make grunt work easier. One example that went viral shortly after ChatGPT’s release: A Palm Beach doctor posted a video of himself dictating a letter to an insurance company.

We’re getting closer to cancer vaccines. Researchers have long thought that it was possible to immunize individuals at high risk of cancer, or even cure cancer in those who were already showing signs of it. Until recently, they had made little progress, but now promising results from preliminary studies are giving some doctors new hope. Moderna said this month that a skin cancer vaccine performed well in midstage trials. Moderna and others are working on dozens of other vaccines to treat various other cancers.

The argument for a four-day workweek is getting stronger. Not one of 33 companies that piloted a shortened workweek for six months as part of a large-scale study this year said they would return to a standard schedule. The firms, which together have more than 900 employees, also reported higher revenue and employee productivity. The nonprofit advocacy group that coordinated the pilot programs, called 4 Day Week Global, has signed up dozens of companies to participate in pilots next year.

[forgetful]

basing my guarded faith on a few different analyst sites, market watch, seeking alpha, wall street journal... ranks as a buy/moderate buy, but this rating goes up the more the pps goes down.  i've seen the average price targets $272.50-450. 

   twitter really has no affect here despite people being vocal against musk.  beware of the "red herring approach"; numbers are numbers. probably the shorties at work. when they roll out the big rig, if there is any sense of that product being up to standards and an affordable alternative, look out. 

  revenue estimates range from $96 bil-137B with an avg estimate sales growth of 38%.  a lot of numbers can be dissected to prove or disprove a stance. 

  yes, many of the traditional auto companies are hot on tesla heels, but my understanding is they are putting too many eggs into that basket too quickly and taking their eyes off of what got them here.  despite what many people may want(all electric) we just aren't ready.  once the consumer feels ev is a viable/reliable AND affordable alternative, you will see the shift but it's going to be gradual if it happens. 

  next up?  hydrogen fuel cells?  H + O2 =water + electricity + heat

I wish you luck on the investment, but I've been down on Tesla for quite some time. As noted previously, their cars really aren't that great compared to others on the market, and even more entering the market. They took advantage of a lot of government money to grow and develop tech, particularly self-driving, but it isn't going particularly well.

Tesla, even being down as much as it is, is trading at a PE ratio of 40, with a market cap of almost $400B. Compare the to Ford (PE of 5; market cap of $46B), or if you want a growth EV comparison Lucid (PE of 7; market cap of $12B).

Tesla is still a good bit overpriced.

It has been overpriced largely due to two reasons: 1) The cult of Musk. 2) Liberals that loved Teslas and the Green Economy.

The misadventures in Twitter has destroyed a lot of the cult of musk, and pissed off the Green/Liberals who bought a lot of Teslas. Or maybe it is a brilliant long ploy of winning over conservatives.

Now note, I'm historically terrible at predicting anything right in the market. I do much better in real-estate though (not a buyer in this market).

Regarding fuel cells. Still not a fan. Don't think it will be the technology that wins long term. Still needs better technology, maybe it comes, but not confident in it at all. It's also not green, yes when we use it for fuel it produces only water, but currently we make it from fossil fuels...which isn't particularly green.