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Author Topic: Investing Thread  (Read 287508 times)

JWags85

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Re: Investing Thread
« Reply #2175 on: December 09, 2022, 10:58:01 AM »
China announces major easing of "zero-COVID" policy after protests
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/china-announces-major-easing-of-zero-covid-policy-after-protests/ar-AA150oIz

I agreed with Goose at the time and am very happy to be wrong if this indeed follows through.  My rep there is, despite his employment for a Western company and entrepreneurial bent, pretty pro-CCP and he was pretty shocked by the announcement.  Same as a couple of my contacts in Shenzhen and Shanghai.  My company and many others with Chinese interests/connections have been hurting badly as the rest of the world opened back up, so this would help.

TSmith34, Inc.

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Re: Investing Thread
« Reply #2176 on: December 09, 2022, 11:09:24 AM »
I agreed with Goose at the time and am very happy to be wrong if this indeed follows through.  My rep there is, despite his employment for a Western company and entrepreneurial bent, pretty pro-CCP and he was pretty shocked by the announcement.  Same as a couple of my contacts in Shenzhen and Shanghai.  My company and many others with Chinese interests/connections have been hurting badly as the rest of the world opened back up, so this would help.
Changing the policy seemed like the rational move to me, which is why I asked Goose why he thought differently. The policy was harming them economically so much it seemed like the clear move to make--but we know people don't always act rationally, especially when it might embarrass them.

So, yeah, while it made sense to me to change the policy, I was asking just to understand what the counterpoint might be.
If you think for one second that I am comparing the USA to China you have bumped your hard.

tower912

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Re: Investing Thread
« Reply #2177 on: December 09, 2022, 11:21:14 AM »
Goose read it wrong.  Meh.  He isn't alone.  I am guessing that, like the rest of us, he is pleasantly surprised.   
Luke 6:45   ...A good man produces goodness from the good in his heart; an evil man produces evil out of his store of evil.   Each man speaks from his heart's abundance...

It is better to be fearless and cheerful than cheerless and fearful.

Goose

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Re: Investing Thread
« Reply #2178 on: December 09, 2022, 11:42:18 AM »
Guys,

I definitely read the situation incorrectly and am very surprised. I am hoping that this is good news for my business in China. That being said, I do believe there may be more twists and turns in this saga before everything is said and done. The zero covid policy never made sense on the economic front and that was I thought it would not be changed due to the protests. President Xi has ignored the economic fallout for three years and stood tough on his stance. Now, with China seeing the most serious outbreak of Covid since early 2020 it seems like a strange time for a change in policy.

Again, I am not sure this story is over yet, but any step in the step in the right direction is positive news. It will be interesting to see what happens if there is a more serious covid outbreak this winter, like some experts are predicting for China.

tower912

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Re: Investing Thread
« Reply #2179 on: December 09, 2022, 11:45:40 AM »
Brother Goose,
I agree this isn't over.  Because if there is suddenly a huge spike in cases, I have to believe the clamps are going to be re-applied.   
Luke 6:45   ...A good man produces goodness from the good in his heart; an evil man produces evil out of his store of evil.   Each man speaks from his heart's abundance...

It is better to be fearless and cheerful than cheerless and fearful.

TSmith34, Inc.

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Re: Investing Thread
« Reply #2180 on: December 09, 2022, 02:32:26 PM »
Brother Goose,
I agree this isn't over.  Because if there is suddenly a huge spike in cases, I have to believe the clamps are going to be re-applied.
You might not be wrong that that would be what China does, but IMO that wouldn't make any sense.

The whole idea behind lockdowns and everyone staying home made sense in the early days of the pandemic when we didn't understand the disease and had few if any effective treatments, the idea obviously being to spread out hospitalizations and minimize the number of deaths. That policy no longer makes any sense with the advent of very effective vaccines and treatments for those infected.

They are just kicking the problem down the road and prolonging the process with draconian lockdowns.
If you think for one second that I am comparing the USA to China you have bumped your hard.

tower912

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Re: Investing Thread
« Reply #2181 on: December 09, 2022, 02:37:48 PM »
It isn't just about COVID.  It is about Xi. 

I agree that it does not make economic sense.   Our thought process is different from and irrelevant to the Chinese political leaders.
Luke 6:45   ...A good man produces goodness from the good in his heart; an evil man produces evil out of his store of evil.   Each man speaks from his heart's abundance...

It is better to be fearless and cheerful than cheerless and fearful.

TSmith34, Inc.

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Re: Investing Thread
« Reply #2182 on: December 11, 2022, 01:58:29 PM »
I don't have the legal expertise to know if this lawsuit has any merit; seems like it should have been a buyer beware situation, but this entire Bored Ape bullcrap always struck me as the Tulip Bulbiest investment of them all. Greater Fool theory writ large.

Kevin Hart, Jimmy Fallon, Madonna Named in Class-Action Suit Alleging Bored Ape Yacht Club NFT Fraud ‘Scheme’
https://www.msn.com/en-us/tv/news/kevin-hart-jimmy-fallon-madonna-named-in-class-action-suit-alleging-bored-ape-yacht-club-nft-fraud-scheme/ar-AA159to4?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=7355795d9558454594185ab13110be7a

"A class-action lawsuit contends that stakeholders in Yuga Labs, the parent company of NFT series Bored Ape Yacht Club and its affiliated digital products, engaged in a conspiracy with celebrities to defraud potential investors.

The complaint states that there exist more than 103,000 unique account holders of Yuga securities — which includes the Bored Ape offshoot Mutant Ape Club; the metaverse “Otherside,” which offered virtual land sales; and the token ApeCoin — of which Yuga receives a 2.5% royalty rate “every time one of its NFTs is resold on the secondary market.”

Why yes, please sign me up for virtual land and ApeCoin.
If you think for one second that I am comparing the USA to China you have bumped your hard.

MU82

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Re: Investing Thread
« Reply #2183 on: December 12, 2022, 07:15:59 PM »
Douchenozzle SBF finally arrested. He will be extradited from the Bahamas and will face federal wire fraud, wire fraud conspiracy, securities fraud, securities fraud conspiracy and money laundering charges.

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/12/12/business/ftx-sam-bankman-fried-bahamas.html?campaign_id=60&emc=edit_na_20221212&instance_id=0&nl=breaking-news&ref=headline&regi_id=108420427&segment_id=115965&user_id=d36dcf821462fdd16ec3636710a855fa
“It’s not how white men fight.” - Tucker Carlson

MU82

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Re: Investing Thread
« Reply #2184 on: December 13, 2022, 07:49:38 AM »
Inflation rate down, market up ...

From Seeking Alpha:

November Consumer Price Index: +0.1% vs. +0.3% expected and +0.4% prior. That's the lowest inflation rate in more than a year, indicating that the Federal Reserve's aggressive rate-hiking moves are filtering through the economy to reduce demand.

Y/Y, CPI: +7.1% vs. +7.3% expected and +7.7% prior.

The energy index dropped 1.6% during the month as the gasoline index, the natural gas index, and the electricity index all fell. Meanwhile, the food index increased 0.5% during November.

Core CPI: +0.2% vs. +0.4% expected and +0.3% prior.

Y/Y: +6.0% vs. +6.1% expected and +6.3% prior.

The largest contributor to the CPI index was for shelter, which more than offset decreases in the energy index, the U.S. Bureau of labor statistics said.

The numbers are exactly what the Federal Reserve wants to see — a moderation in inflation. Still, even looking at the 6.0% Y/Y increase in core CPI is far higher than the Fed's 2% inflation target.

The futures of the three major U.S. equity indexes jumped after the release. S&P futures +0.9%, Nasdaq +1.1%, and Dow +0.8%. Bonds also gained, pushing the 10-year Treasury yield down 6 basis points to 3.50%.

On Monday, consumers' inflation expectations retreated some, according to New York Fed survey.


As I write this, Dow is up 2.2% premarket, S&P 2.8%, Nasdaq 3.8%.
“It’s not how white men fight.” - Tucker Carlson

TSmith34, Inc.

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Re: Investing Thread
« Reply #2185 on: December 13, 2022, 09:27:32 AM »
Fed will continue to raise, to move towards the 2% target as you said. Question is, will continued raises eventually start to bite earnings, and if so how much?
If you think for one second that I am comparing the USA to China you have bumped your hard.

tower912

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Re: Investing Thread
« Reply #2186 on: December 13, 2022, 09:28:39 AM »
Record profits last quarter.
Luke 6:45   ...A good man produces goodness from the good in his heart; an evil man produces evil out of his store of evil.   Each man speaks from his heart's abundance...

It is better to be fearless and cheerful than cheerless and fearful.

MU82

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Re: Investing Thread
« Reply #2187 on: December 13, 2022, 10:23:42 AM »
Even as market surges, TSLA just hit a multi-year low.

Its CEO is too distracted by his culture war.
“It’s not how white men fight.” - Tucker Carlson

TSmith34, Inc.

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Re: Investing Thread
« Reply #2188 on: December 13, 2022, 10:45:34 AM »
Even as market surges, TSLA just hit a multi-year low.

Its CEO is too distracted by his culture war.
He's personally down another $2.6B over the last two days. Bring on the investor lawsuits.
If you think for one second that I am comparing the USA to China you have bumped your hard.

Skatastrophy

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Re: Investing Thread
« Reply #2189 on: December 13, 2022, 10:46:05 AM »
Even as market surges, TSLA just hit a multi-year low.

Its CEO is too distracted by his culture war.

Everyone else's electric cars are nicer.

TSmith34, Inc.

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Re: Investing Thread
« Reply #2190 on: December 13, 2022, 10:48:28 AM »
Everyone else's electric cars are nicer.
But the Teslas have a beautiful built in heads-up display that show a continuous scroll of Musk's latest sh!tposts.
If you think for one second that I am comparing the USA to China you have bumped your hard.

rocky_warrior

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Re: Investing Thread
« Reply #2191 on: December 13, 2022, 10:51:01 AM »
Everyone else's electric cars are nicer.

Maybe, maybe not, but their stock prices don't have the crazy valuation that TSLA (still) does.

MU82

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Re: Investing Thread
« Reply #2192 on: December 13, 2022, 11:03:48 AM »
The Tesla CEO is obsessed and distracted by the culture wars he is fighting at his new toy, the one he didn't even want. He also is selling massive amounts of TSLA, which obviously pushes the price down. I don't know anything about "fiduciary duty" laws, but Musk certainly is doing investors in his main company no favors.

The last few months, it would be hard to argue that he's been anything but a horrible CEO for Tesla and its shareholders. Price now down below $160.

I'd look at the silver lining and say that he's giving TSLA investors a better stock price to buy more, but I have no idea how to determine a fair price for TSLA. Even after all of this, it's still trading at about 40x projected forward earnings -- and that's assuming expected EPS won't have to be adjusted downward, which will probably be the case.
“It’s not how white men fight.” - Tucker Carlson

JWags85

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Re: Investing Thread
« Reply #2193 on: December 13, 2022, 11:19:59 AM »
Maybe, maybe not, but their stock prices don't have the crazy valuation that TSLA (still) does.

TSLA's stock price has always been forward looking with a valuation based on their future tech advances (battery, autonomous driving, etc...) as opposed to just being a car company like their peers.  One could argue that sideshows like this detract from that sort of forward thinking leadership from their CEO/leadership team, hence the walk back.

The last few months, it would be hard to argue that he's been anything but a horrible CEO for Tesla and its shareholders. Price now down below $160.

I'd look at the silver lining and say that he's giving TSLA investors a better stock price to buy more, but I have no idea how to determine a fair price for TSLA. Even after all of this, it's still trading at about 40x projected forward earnings -- and that's assuming expected EPS won't have to be adjusted downward, which will probably be the case.

Yea, I was gonna say, to be fair, regardless of what Musk is/was doing with Twitter or elsewhere, the TSLA stock price was absurdly overheated, overvalued, and completely unsustainable at the levels it was.  I've been a huge fan of TSLA and its potential since the early 2010s, but trading over 1000 like it had been over the early part of the year was absolutely laughable.

rocky_warrior

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Re: Investing Thread
« Reply #2194 on: December 13, 2022, 11:27:49 AM »
TSLA's stock price has always been forward looking with a valuation based on their future tech advances (battery, autonomous driving, etc...) as opposed to just being a car company like their peers.

I mean - you mostly covered this in the second part of your reply, but, they are a car company.  All other car companies have battery technology now too, most have as many or more EVs, and Tesla has failed at autonomous driving - again, other car companies have exactly the same technology now.  I get some of the initial excitement since Tesla was first to market with many of these things, but today, they don't deserve 10x the stock price as the other auto companies.

jesmu84

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Re: Investing Thread
« Reply #2195 on: December 13, 2022, 11:38:49 AM »
Is it possible Tesla was a speculative asset during the free money era and is now coming down with rates increasing?

JWags85

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Re: Investing Thread
« Reply #2196 on: December 13, 2022, 11:48:12 AM »
I mean - you mostly covered this in the second part of your reply, but, they are a car company.  All other car companies have battery technology now too, most have as many or more EVs, and Tesla has failed at autonomous driving - again, other car companies have exactly the same technology now.  I get some of the initial excitement since Tesla was first to market with many of these things, but today, they don't deserve 10x the stock price as the other auto companies.

Sure, and thats why I think the comedown in pricing is totally fair, regardless of Musk.  Honestly, its no different than Apple.   Apple was a tech innovation company.  Now they are just a huge hardware manufacturer.  Generate huge profits of course, but don't deserve the inflated multiples that tech/innovative companies garner.

I didn't think that had to be the case with TSLA, but it has, for better or for worse.  Short of them going somewhere new and different, they are far more like their peers, albeit without the ties to oil/commodity stuff.

MU82

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Re: Investing Thread
« Reply #2197 on: December 13, 2022, 12:05:07 PM »
TSLA's stock price has always been forward looking with a valuation based on their future tech advances (battery, autonomous driving, etc...) as opposed to just being a car company like their peers.  One could argue that sideshows like this detract from that sort of forward thinking leadership from their CEO/leadership team, hence the walk back.

Yea, I was gonna say, to be fair, regardless of what Musk is/was doing with Twitter or elsewhere, the TSLA stock price was absurdly overheated, overvalued, and completely unsustainable at the levels it was.  I've been a huge fan of TSLA and its potential since the early 2010s, but trading over 1000 like it had been over the early part of the year was absolutely laughable.

And to be fair, TSLA's price has especially cratered since his Twitter obsession. Heck, he sold tons of shares himself to help him buy the company he didn't even want, and that contributed to the decline.

As you said, when you are priced for perfection, Mr. Market is looking for reasons to dump you. Musk has given Mr. Market lots of reasons.

It can be both, and IMHO it most definitely is.

Sure, and thats why I think the comedown in pricing is totally fair, regardless of Musk.  Honestly, its no different than Apple.   Apple was a tech innovation company.  Now they are just a huge hardware manufacturer.  Generate huge profits of course, but don't deserve the inflated multiples that tech/innovative companies garner.

AAPL is down 20% this year, 26% from its all-time high.

TSLA is down 51% this year, 61% from its all-time high.

One has a stable CEO who isn't obsessed with culture wars and who isn't losing his shyte on an almost daily basis. The other is TSLA.
“It’s not how white men fight.” - Tucker Carlson

JWags85

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Re: Investing Thread
« Reply #2198 on: December 13, 2022, 12:50:47 PM »
AAPL is down 20% this year, 26% from its all-time high.

TSLA is down 51% this year, 61% from its all-time high.

One has a stable CEO who isn't obsessed with culture wars and who isn't losing his shyte on an almost daily basis. The other is TSLA.

You completely missed my point, or purposely twisted it, to post "culture war" for the umpteenth post in a row  ::)

MU82

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Re: Investing Thread
« Reply #2199 on: December 13, 2022, 01:34:03 PM »
You completely missed my point, or purposely twisted it, to post "culture war" for the umpteenth post in a row  ::)

IMHO, your point was wrong about Musk's oversight of his main company and about TSLA stock's related poor performance. Not sure why you have pretty consistently defended his unacceptable stewardship of Tesla and the loss of value that has brought to shareholders.

But your point about me overusing "culture war" is right. I didn't need to keep restating the obvious.
“It’s not how white men fight.” - Tucker Carlson

 

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